“I’m hoping that we can squeak into the postseason and I get an opportunity to pitch again. But I think, after this season, I’m going to be retiring and moving on to the next chapter,” Paxton said. The 35-year-old called it a “tough” decision because he remains confident in his ability but indicated he feels it’s the right time to “settle in at home.” Paxton told Bradford he has already gotten to work on building a company focused on addressing athletes’ mental health.

While there’s a small chance he gets back on the mound this year, it’s likely his playing career is over. Paxton tore his right calf in mid-August and was placed on the 60-day injured list last month. He’s ineligible to return until the middle of October. The Sox would need to erase a four-game deficit in the Wild Card race and likely need to make a run into at least the ALCS for Paxton to be able to get on the mound.

Injuries were an unfortunately frequent occurrence. This season was only the fifth in which he reached 100 MLB innings. Paxton was a very productive pitcher when healthy, highlighted by a four-year peak with the Mariners and Yankees at the end of the 2010s.

The Blue Jays initially drafted Paxton, a British Columbia native who’d eventually earn the “Big Maple” nickname. Toronto selected him 37th overall in the 2009 draft. The sides couldn’t agree to contract terms, however, sending the 6’4″ southpaw back to the draft the following year. Seattle selected him in the fourth round, a move that would pay off a few seasons later.

Paxton was immediately one of the M’s top pitching prospects. He got to the big leagues as a September call-up in 2013, firing 24 innings of 1.50 ERA ball. Paxton battled shoulder and finger injuries, respectively, over the following two seasons. He was limited to 13 starts in each year but managed a sub-4.00 earned run average both times. Paxton topped 100 innings and reached 20 appearances for the first time in 2016, turning in a 3.79 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning.

The following season saw Paxton emerge as an upper mid-rotation starter, at least on a rate basis. He fired 136 frames with a career-best 2.98 ERA while striking out more than 28% of opponents. Paxton continued to miss bats in bunches the following year, when he fanned 32.2% of batters faced with a 3.76 ERA across 160 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 150+ innings, only Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole had a better strikeout rate that year.

That 2018 campaign saw Paxton log the highest workload of his career and included perhaps his two best performances. Paxton no-hit the Jays at the Rogers Centre in May 2018, becoming the second Canadian pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter. That was one of two complete game victories he posted that month, though those arguably weren’t even his best outings. Paxton also struck out a personal-high 16 A’s hitters over seven scoreless innings in the start preceding his no-hitter. Overall, he struck out 51 hitters with a 1.67 ERA across 43 innings that month.

At the end of that season, the M’s traded Paxton’s final two seasons of arbitration eligibility to the Yankees for a three-player return. The headliner, Justus Sheffield, did not pan out. Erik Swanson, included as the secondary piece, developed into a productive reliever. Paxton had a strong first season in the Bronx, tossing 150 2/3 frames of 3.82 ERA ball while punching out nearly 30% of opposing hitters. He started a trio of postseason games for a Yankee team that lost to the Astros in the ALCS. Barring a surprise run from this year’s Sox, those were the only playoff appearances of his career. Paxton fanned 20 while allowing five runs in 13 innings (3.46 ERA).

That was Paxton’s final full season. He sustained a flexor strain during the shortened 2020 season, limiting him to five starts in his walk year. The Mariners brought him back during his first free agent trip on a buy-low $8.5MM deal. Paxton pitched once before his elbow blew out. He underwent Tommy John surgery and wouldn’t pitch again until 2023.

Paxton made 19 starts and logged 96 innings for the Red Sox last season, the second year of a $10MM free agent deal. He returned to the open market and signed with the Dodgers on a contract that eventually paid him $13MM after he hit certain start bonuses. L.A. squeezed him off the roster just before the trade deadline and flipped him back to Boston. Paxton made three starts for the Sox before suffering the calf injury. He’ll finish the year with a 4.40 ERA across 100 1/3 innings between the two clubs.

While the injuries kept Paxton a bit below 1000 innings, he finishes his career with a solid 3.77 earned run average. Paxton recorded his 1000th strikeout against former teammate Justin Turner on July 30. He made 177 appearances, all starts, and compiled a 73-41 record with a pair of complete games. Paxton’s one shutout was a memorable one — the aforementioned no-hitter in his home country. Baseball Reference credits him with roughly 14 wins above replacement, while he was worth 19 WAR at FanGraphs. B-Ref calculates his earnings at nearly $50MM. MLBTR congratulates Paxton on a fine career and sends our best wishes on his worthwhile endeavor to help athletes with their mental health.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rodríguez, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox in the offseason. He cracked their Opening Day roster but didn’t post strong results initially. He made 11 appearances for the club with a 6.55 earned run average, the same numbers he had in limited time with them last year.

He was designated for assignment at the end of April and accepted an outright assignment after clearing waivers. He then spent about six weeks on the minor league injured list from the middle of May until late June. That has left him with just 14 1/3 Triple-A innings pitched this year, but with a strong 1.88 ERA. There’s likely a good deal of fortune in there, based on his .175 batting average on balls in play in that small sample. His 20.6% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate in that time were subpar, though he did get grounders at a strong 52.6% clip.

Those rate stats aren’t too far off of his major league track record. In 168 innings dating back to his 2016 debut, he has a 4.82 ERA, 22.8% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 55.7% ground ball rate. He’ll give the club a second lefty in the bullpen alongside Brennan Bernardino. He is out of options but can be retained beyond this season via arbitration if he holds onto his roster spot through the end of the year.

As for Paxton, it’s not a surprise to see him moved to the 60-day IL. He suffered a partially torn right calf muscle last week and manager Alex Cora said it was unlikely that the lefty would be able to return this year. He’s now officially ineligible to be reinstated until the second week of October. Unless the Sox make a deep playoff run and he heals up in the next two months, his season is over.

2:30pm: Red Sox left-hander James Paxton tells reporters that he’s been diagnosed with a partial tear of his right calf muscle (X link via WEEI’s Rob Bradford). The veteran southpaw acknowledged that it could sideline him for the remainder of the year but will still try to rehab in an effort to make it back before the season concludes.

The Sox placed Paxton on the 15-day injured list with a calf strain yesterday. The term “strain” itself, by definition, indicates there is a degree of stretching or tearing, so today’s announcement isn’t a total surprise. That said, the fact that he’s possibly facing an absence of six-plus weeks indicates that it’s a tear of some note — the latest in a long line of injuries that have plagued the talented left-hander throughout his big league career.

Paxton, 35, spent the 2022-23 seasons in Boston. He missed the entire ’22 campaign due to Tommy John surgery but returned in 2023 to pitch 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $7MM deal with incentives that could take the contract up to $13MM. He unlocked all of those incentives before being designated for assignment and traded to the Red Sox in return for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar.

The Sox hoped that Paxton would help shore up an injury-depleted starting rotation, but it’s now possible they’ll receive only three starts from him. Paxton notched a solid 4.09 ERA in his 11 innings following the trade but exited his third and potentially final start after recording just two outs. He was Boston’s lone veterean acquisition prior to the trade deadline, meaning the Sox will again be left to rely on the quartet of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta, with scant depth behind the group. Righty Cooper Criswell has pitched well but has little track record and is currently out with Covid-19. Fellow righty Josh Winckowski has also made a handful of starts and could see further action down the stretch.

Paxton’s injury could open the door for young Quinn Priester, whom the Sox acquired from the Pirates in exchange for infield prospect Nick Yorke. Priester, a former first-round pick and top prospect, has yet to establish himself as a consistently viable big league starter. He’s logged a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 big league innings to this point in his young career, but the 23-year-old has generally fared well in the upper minors — an ugly two-game stint with the Sox’ Triple-A club in Worcester notwithstanding.

It’s a tenuous situation in Boston — one that would blow up in particularly bad fashion were one of Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to go down with an injury of note. Boston traded Chris Sale to the Braves in a regrettable offseason swap that netted infielder Vaughn Grissom. He was “replaced” by right-hander Lucas Giolito, who required season-ending internal brace surgery before the 2024 campaign began. Righty Garrett Whitlock had his own internal brace operation back in May. Depth arms like Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata have also been non-factors this season due to injury.

The Red Sox currently sit in third place in the AL East despite a strong 62-55 record. They’re only two games back in the American League Wild Card hunt, landing .001 percentage points ahead of the 63-56 Mariners but trailing the 65-54 Royals for the final Wild Card spot.

Shugart, 27, gets the call to the big leagues for the first time. A 12th-round pick of the Sox in 2018, he has been working his way up the minor league ladder since then. He worked exclusively as a starter through 2021 but has primarily been working out of the bullpen since then.

His initial forays into Triple-A ball didn’t go well, as he posted a 6.82 earned run average at that level in 2022 and then an 8.22 ERA there last year. He’s had more success here in 2024, with a 4.98 ERA in 59 2/3 innings. That’s largely come in a multi-inning capacity, as he’s logged those frames over 28 appearances, including five starts. His 10.9% walk rate is a bit on the high side but he has punched out 26.6% of opponents this year and gotten grounders on 46.8% of balls in play.

Baseball America had Shugart on the back end of their organizational top 30 list back in 2019 and 2020 but not in recent years. The Sox are likely going to be leaning on him for a long man role in the coming days. Paxton suffered his injury after recording just two outs, forcing the bullpen to do yeoman’s work. Bernardino tossed an inning a third while each of Lucas Sims, Luis García and Cam Booser tossed two innings. First baseman Dominic Smith pitched a scoreless ninth with the Sox down 10-2 to the Astros. The Sox also did a bullpen game the day before, with Josh Winckowski covering three innings, Brad Keller eating up four, while Zack Kelly and Chris Martin picked up one each.

All told, the pitching staff is fairly taxed and the Sox don’t have another off-day until August 22, over a week from now. Righty Cooper Criswell went on the COVID IL recently and has an unknown timeline. With Paxton now out as well, the rotation is down to Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta. Perhaps Winckowski will get another shot after throwing three innings on the weekend, or perhaps Criswell can make a quick return. The club also has Quinn Priester on optional assignment and could recall him at some point. But in the meantime, Shugart can sop up some innings, if needed.

Gasper, 28, was also selected in the 2018 draft, but by the Yankees. He came to the Red Sox via the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft. He has generally put up positive numbers in a hit-over-power fashion, though he’s always been old for whatever level he’s been playing at. He didn’t reach Triple-A until last year, his age-27 season, and hit .191/.295/.265 in his first 22 games at that level.

This year has gone much better. He’s played 44 Double-A games and 40 at Triple-A. Between those two clubs, he has a 15.9% walk rate, 11% strikeout rate and .341/.458/.559 batting line that translates to a wRC+ of 175.

Despite the massive batting line, Gasper’s not really considered a top prospect, though it would make for a great story if he could engineer a late-bloomer breakout. He has played catcher, first base and second base this year, in addition to a bit of third base time in previous seasons. He figures to slot into the club’s bench mix, giving them depth at various spots.

Westbrook, 29, signed a minor league deal with Boston in the offseason. They selected his contract in June, his first time cracking a major league roster. He has received 48 big league plate appearances so far, hitting just .150/.234/.350 in that small sample. He has always hit well in the minors and that’s still true this year. He has a line of .291/.381/.475 in 71 Triple-A games, drawing walks at a strong 12% clip and limiting his strikeouts to a 17.2% clip.

Defensively, he has played the three non-shortstop infield positions as well as right field this year. Since the trade deadline has passed, the Sox will have no choice but to put him on waivers in the coming days. If any team puts in a claim, Westbrook still has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time.

Speaking to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (links to X) and other media after the game, Paxton said he heard a popping sound in his leg.  Paxton was using crutches to move around in the clubhouse, and he’ll get an MRI tomorrow to access the damage.

A trip to the 15-day injured list seems inevitable, and it is up in the air whether or not Paxton will even be able to pitch again in 2024.  Even if the MRI reveals the relatively good news of “just” a lower-grade strain, such injuries can tend to linger.  It is also possible the Red Sox could shut Paxton down for the season if the team falls out of the postseason race — today’s 10-2 loss dropped the Sox three games back of a wild card berth, and extended Boston’s losing streak to four games.

The calf strain is another disheartening turn in a career that has been marked by injuries, as Paxton was on pace to avoid the Major League injured list for the first time since 2013.  He hasn’t dealt with calf issues in the past, though he missed time last year with a pair of right leg injuries, in the form of a hamstring strain and knee inflammation.

Paxton was with the Red Sox during that 2023 season, before signing a one-year, $7MM deal with the Dodgers last winter.  Since Paxton stayed healthy and has made 21 starts (and thrown 100 1/3 innings) in total this season, he earned an extra $6MM in contract incentives, which the Dodgers already covered before he was dealt back to Boston in late July.  The trade was seen as a bit of a surprise given how Los Angeles has been ravaged by rotation injuries this season, and Paxton had a respectable 4.43 ERA in his 89 1/3 innings as a Dodger.  His Statcast numbers, however, were much less impressive, and today’s injury also underlines whatever concerns the Dodgers might’ve had about Paxton remaining healthy.

From Boston’s perspective, the Paxton trade brought a familiar face and some rotation depth back to Fenway Park, but it looks like the Red Sox might have to again scramble to add arms.  Quinn Priester was acquired from the Pirates in another pre-deadline trade and could be called up from Triple-A, or Brad Keller could be stretched out to work in piggyback situation, or as a bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Cooper Criswell will miss at least the rest of the next week due to a placement on the COVID-related injury list, while Nick Pivetta is expected to make his next turn in the rotation after his last start was skipped to provide extra rest.

McGuire, 29, has been with the Red Sox since 2022, generally serving as a light-hitting backup catcher but with strong defensive grades. He has seven Defensive Runs Saved in his career while each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast consider him to be a strong framer.

But when he steps out from behind the plate and stands beside it, the results are less impressive. He has a career batting line of .252/.300/.364, which translates to a wRC+ of 79. He’s been even worse this year, with a .209/.280/.295 batting line and 59 wRC+.

That production likely inspired the Sox to go out and get Jansen, pairing him with Connor Wong behind the plate. Since McGuire is out of options, he’s been nudged off the roster entirely. He’s making a fairly modest salary of $1.5MM and can be retained for another year via arbitration. His poor results this year mean that he won’t be in line for a huge raise, so perhaps some club will be interested in him as a glove-first backup.

Anderson, 36, is a veteran who signed a modest $1.25MM deal with the Sox for this year. He’s been in a long relief role with the Sox, tossing 52 innings over 27 appearances. He’s allowed 4.85 earned runs per nine this year. His 8.5% walk rate is around average but his 15.6% strikeout rate and 32.5% ground ball rate are well below par. If it weren’t for a .229 batting average on balls in play, he probably would have allowed more runs across the plate.

The Sox will have until Tuesday’s trade deadline to deal either McGuire or Anderson, though they probably won’t find much interest in either, which could lead to both players being on waivers. Anderson has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary. McGuire has more than three but less than five years of service, meaning he would have the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his remaining salary to hit the open market. That means he might stick with the Sox as non-roster depth if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Ramírez, 29, has tossed 43 2/3 innings this year between the Mets, Orioles and Dodgers, frequently bouncing around due to his out-of-options status. In that time, he has a 5.98 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 44.4% ground ball rate. All those rate stats are pretty close to league average, so his .339 BABIP and 60.8% strand rate might be pushing his ERA up a bit. HIs 4.18 FIP and 3.77 SIERA point to better results going forward.

Since the righty is out of options, the Sox will have to install him onto the active roster, meaning someone from their bullpen will have to be optioned whenever he reports to the team. He can be retained for three more seasons after this one if he hangs onto his roster spot.

Paxton was something of a surprise DFA by the Dodgers. He’s made all 18 starts asked of him this season and posted a respectable, if unspectacular 4.43 earned run average. Those numbers closely mirror the 4.50 ERA he logged in a similar sample of 96 frames with Boston last season, but the rest of the 35-year-old’s profile doesn’t look nearly as strong.

After averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball with the Sox last season, Paxton is down to 93.2 mph in 2024. He’s seen his strikeout rate plummet from 24.6% to 16.4%, while his walk rate has soared from 8% to 12.3%. Paxton’s average exit velocity has also jumped by a mile and a half per hour, from 89.3 mph with the Sox to 90.8 mph with Los Angeles. His overall hard-hit rate has climbed in similar fashion, from 39.6% to 43.3%. He’s gotten by with a career-low .267 average on balls in play and homer-to-flyball rate that’s also notably lower than his career marks.

Whether Paxton can sustain his passable results with that lackluster array of under-the-hood numbers is far from clear, but the Sox also don’t necessarily need him to perform like an front-of-the-rotation arm. Boston’s depth behind Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Cooper Criswell is thin, and several of those arms (Houck, Crawford, Criswell) are either approaching or have already established new career-high workloads. Adding a stable back-end arm surely holds plenty of appeal for a team in that situation —  particularly given Paxton’s affordable contract.

Paxton inked a one-year deal with $7MM guaranteed and another $6MM in attainable bonuses. However, $3MM of that guarantee came in the form of an up-front signing bonus that’s already been paid out. He’s also already unlocked all $6MM of incentives ($2MM for making the Opening Day roster and another $4MM based on his number of games started). As such, the Red Sox will only owe him the prorated portion of that $4MM base between now and season’s end (approximately $1.42MM).

That modest sum bumps Boston’s payroll to an approximate $180MM. Their luxury-tax ledger is a good bit higher, checking in at an estimated $218.1MM prior to this swap (via RosterResource). Paxton will push the Sox just shy of $220MM, leaving chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff about $17MM of breathing room between their current number and the first luxury tax threshold. Breslow & Co. should have ample room to make further additions, even if ownership is reluctant to cross that first tax threshold. Boston, in addition to seeking rotation depth, has been in the market for bullpen upgrades and a right-handed bat.

For the Dodgers, the trade of Paxton, who ranks third on their team in innings pitched, clearly isn’t a sign of selling. Los Angeles is in first place in the NL West and stands as a veritable lock to make the postseason. But the Dodgers also welcomed Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week.

That pair of high-quality veterans joins a youthful trio of Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and River Ryan in the rotation at the moment, but the Dodgers are also expecting Yoshinobu Yamamoto to return in August and Walker Buehler to return sometime before season’s end. Between that depth and their outspoken pursuit of an “impact” starting pitcher on the trade market (in the words of general manager Brandon Gomes), Paxton was pushed out of the mix.

In exchange for the final two-plus months of Paxton’s services, the Dodgers will receive the 17-year-old Bolivar. He signed with the Red Sox as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela just this past January, receiving a bonus of $25K. He’s not considered a high-end prospect in Boston’s system, but that sort of lottery-ticket return is to be expected for a veteran pitcher who was designated for assignment.

Bolivar, already six feet tall and listed at 175 pounds, has gotten out to a strong start in his professional debut. He’s appeared in 31 games with the Red Sox’ Rookie-level Dominican Summer League affiliate and slashed .270/.364/.423 with three homers and nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (21). He’s a right-handed hitter who’s played primarily third base but has also logged 26 innings across the diamond at first base.

FanSided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two sides were engaged in trade talks. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported a deal had been finalized. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe added details on the Dodgers’ return.

Injuries prevented Paxton from taking the mound for the Sox in 2022 and led him to exercise a player option for the 2023 season. He bounced back with 19 starts and 96 innings — both his highest marks since 2019 in New York. Paxton’s 4.50 ERA wasn’t much to look at, though metrics like SIERA (4.11) and FIP (3.77) painted a friendlier picture. He fanned a sharp 24.6% of his opponents last season against a tidy 8% walk rate.

Things haven’t gone as well in a similar workload with the Dodgers. Although Paxton’s 18 starts, 89 1/3 innings and 4.43 ERA all generally mirror last year’s numbers with the Red Sox, the rest of his numbers are markedly worse. Paxton averaged 95.2 mph on his fastball last season, per Statcast, but is down to 93.2 mph on average in 2024. His strikeout rate has plummeted to 16.4%, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.3%. Paxton is getting fewer whiffs, fewer grounders and yielding far more hard contact in 2024 than he did in 2023. The primary difference has been the lefty’s dip in home run rate (9.5% HR/FB, 1.11 HR/9) and a career-low .267 average on balls in play.

Even if Paxton’s K-BB and batted-ball profiles are diminished relative to his 2023 levels, he’s still been a perhaps surprisingly durable arm this year. He’s made all 18 starts asked of him and has yet to land on the injured list. He’d also be highly affordable from a financial standpoint. He’s playing the season on a one-year deal that came with a $4MM base salary, $2MM bonus for making the Opening Day roster and $3MM singing bonus. Paxton’s deal also allowed him to earn $4MM off incentives based on games started. The lump sum of that signing bonus, Opening Day bonus and all of his incentives have already been paid out. The Red Sox (or another new club) would only owe him the prorated remainder of that $4MM salary — about $1.48MM as of this writing.

The Red Sox currently have Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello in the rotation. Righties Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski have both made starts out of the fifth spot in the rotation. The Sox have lost Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock and depth starter Chris Murphy to season-ending surgeries. Bryan Mata is on the injured list and just had a setback. Paxton would at least give the Sox a stabilizing force at the back of the rotation. (The Red Sox have also reportedly looked into the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon as an option.)

On the team’s search for additional rotation help, Gomes made clear that the Dodgers aren’t prioritizing marginal upgrades or back-end innings eaters to help patch things over for the rest of the regular season. “Targeting starting pitching, but it’s going to be an impact-type arm,” Gomes said of his club’s approach to the trade deadline.

That’s a tall order, of course. The starting pitching market is generally thin. White Sox ace Garrett Crochet and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty are the two most impactful names expected to be widely available. High-profile targets like Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and, to a much lesser degree, the Cubs’ Justin Steele have at least been the subject of some speculation, but neither is expected to be traded by next Tuesday. As a rotation-hungry club with a deep stock of controllable young talent and high-end prospects, the Dodgers could put together a compelling offer to test the Tigers’ conviction on Skubal, but any such deal is a long shot and would face steep competition from the Orioles and other similarly positioned contenders.

[Related: Top 50 trade candidates for the 2024 MLB trade deadline]

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez recently reported that Crochet sits atop the Dodgers’ deadline wish list. Given the lack of “impact” arms who can be controlled beyond the current season, that’s hardly a surprising development. Any team that acquires Crochet will have some trepidation about his workload — the lefty’s 107 1/3 innings this year exceed his combined career total since being drafted in 2020 — but there’s no denying his dominance. The former No. 11 overall pick sports a 3.02 ERA (2.35 FIP, 2.45 SIERA). His 35.2% strikeout rate is tops among the 164 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings this season. His 5.4% walk rate ranks 23rd among that same sub-set.

As evidenced by the Paxton DFA, the L.A. rotation is in a state of flux. The Dodgers are welcoming Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week. Top prospect River Ryan made his MLB debut yesterday and tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the injured list until at least mid-August but is still expected to pitch again this season. There’s hope that recently optioned Bobby Miller can return to form and that former top starter Walker Buehler can come back from the injured list and still contribute late in the season. Other young, less-proven options for the Dodgers include Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski. Stone, in particular, has emerged as a key arm with 18 starts of 3.19 ERA ball.

If everyone’s healthy, the Dodgers arguably already have a formidable playoff staff — but that’s a sizable “if.” Crochet would add more of a question mark to the bunch than a definitive ace, given his workload questions, but it’s also possible the Dodgers could utilize him as a multi-inning reliever late in the season or even get him some closing work. That’s speculative, to be clear, but manager Dave Roberts stopped short last night of referring to team saves leader Evan Phillips as his “closer,” Jack Harris of the L.A. Times tweets. Phillips has hit a rough stretch recently, yielding nine runs in his past 7 1/3 innings.

A pitcher like Crochet could be an “impact” arm in either a starting or relief role. He likely holds extra appeal to the Dodgers, given not only his two extra seasons of club control but his bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary. RosterResource projects that the Dodgers already have $326MM worth of luxury obligations, placing them in the top tier of penalization. As a team paying the tax for a third consecutive season, they’re subject to a 110% overage fee on any new players acquired. Crochet will have about $258K of his salary yet to be paid out come deadline day; he’d only cost the Dodgers (or another maximum-penalty CBT team) about $542K in additional salary.

2:42pm: The Dodgers are designating veteran left-hander James Paxton for assignment, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The team has not yet formally announced the move.

Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another.

It’ll be a move that catches some off guard. Paxton has a solid enough 4.43 ERA and despite a laundry list of injury troubles in recent years has been the Dodgers’ healthiest starter. He’s tied with Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone for the team lead with 18 starts but sits well below both righties in terms of total innings, as he’s averaged fewer than five frames per start.

Paxton’s earned run average also belies some far less-encouraging numbers. His 16.4% strikeout rate is nearly six percentage points shy of the 22.3% league average, while his 12.3% walk rate is way north of the 8.2% average. He’s benefited from the help of a .267 average on balls in play that stands as the lowest mark of his career despite surrendering a career-high 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 43.3% hard-hit rate that represents the second-worst mark of his big league tenure. Paxton has been hit particularly hard of late; dating back to June 5, he carries a 6.03 ERA in 37 1/3 innings (eight starts). Stretch that endpoint to mid-May, and Paxton has been torched for a 5.82 ERA in his past 11 starts — all while averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing.

The Dodgers are set to welcome both Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back to their rotation this week. Glasnow has been out since July 9 with lower back tightness and will end up only requiring a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list. Kershaw has yet to pitch this season while rehabbing from last November’s shoulder surgery. That veteran pair will join Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski as starting options for manager Dave Roberts, though the Dodgers are also rumored to be promoting top pitching prospect River Ryan for his debut this week. Both Ryan and Kershaw will require the Dodgers to open 40-man spots, and it seems Paxton’s DFA will create one of those two vacancies.

Beyond Kershaw and Glasnow, the Dodgers hope to have Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto back from the injured list at some point next month. Right-hander Bobby Miller was just optioned amid some ongoing struggles but gives the team another rotation option. And, of course, starting pitching is reportedly one of the Dodgers’ top priorities heading into next week’s trade deadline. It’d be a surprise if president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman didn’t augment his rotation in some capacity.

As for Paxton, he’ll now either be released or traded within the next week. The veteran lefty has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and retain his full salary, so the Dodgers likely won’t even try to outright him. It’s easy enough to see a team on the hunt for rotation help show some interest, but at the same time it’ll be tough for any club to surrender much in a trade given Paxton’s recent struggles, his relatively notable salary and the fact that once he’s released, he’d be available for nothing more than the prorated league minimum.

Paxton, 35, spent the past two seasons in the Red Sox organization but only pitched in 2023. He made 19 starts for the club last year, pitching to a 4.50 ERA (101 ERA+) and 4.68 FIP overall. While he posted a strong 2.73 ERA and 3.63 FIP in ten starts prior to the All Star break, Paxton’s brutal final three starts in August and September caused his numbers to balloon as he allowed a whopping 17 runs in 9 2/3 innings of work before being shut down for the season due to knee inflammation.

Abraham relays that, according to the left-hander, there was mutual interest in a reunion between his camp and the Red Sox before he ultimately settled on pitching closer to his West Coast home in Seattle. Adding the veteran southpaw to Boston’s heavily young and right-handed rotation mix would have made plenty of sense for the club, but instead the team is set to rely on internal youngsters like Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck to round out the rotation alongside Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta.

More from around the AL East…

• Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu spoke to reporters (including those at MLB.com) yesterday regarding his rehab from a non-displaced fracture in his right foot and provided a positive update, suggesting that he could be nearing a return to action. LeMahieu indicated that he’s “making progress” after running at roughly 90 percent effort and taking batting practice on the field at Yankee Stadium over the weekend. Per manager Aaron Boone, the next step for LeMahieu is further imaging later in the week before a potential minor league rehab assignment. If the veteran can avoid further setbacks, it’s possible he could return before the end of the month. In the meantime, the club figures to continue relying on Jon Berti and Oswaldo Cabrera at the hot corner.
• Blue Jays manager John Schneider spoke to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) yesterday to provide an update on right-hander Erik Swanson, who started the season on the injured list due to a bout of forearm tightness last month. Per Schneider, Swanson is scheduled to be evaluated today after throwing a rehab inning at the Double-A level last night to decide if he’s ready to be activated when first eligible on Tuesday, though Davidi adds that Schneider indicated an additional rehab appearance is possible. If Swanson is to make another appearance in the minors before returning to the big league roster, it likely won’t come for a few days, as the right-hander is scheduled to be in Toronto for the club’s home opener tomorrow evening. Swanson joined the club during the 2022-23 offseason as part of the return in the Teoscar Hernandez trade and quickly established himself as the top set-up option for closer Jordan Romano, pitching to a 2.97 ERA with a 3.51 FIP in 69 appearances last year.

As Paxton tells Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, “I felt like I kind of reached a point where my body was just a little burned out.  I didn’t have much left in the tank.”  Paxton kept pushing since the Red Sox were still on the fringes of the playoff race, and struggled in particular once he was moved to a regular turn of four days’ rest between starts.

“Early in the season, I had a lot of extra rest, and then we went to a shorter leash.  Coming off a surgery and that much time off, I wasn’t conditioned for that,” Paxton said.  “If you start off going [every five days] your body gets accustomed to that, whereas if you go six all the time, that’s what your body gets accustomed to.  We’re creatures of habit.”

Despite the rough finish to his season, Paxton still landed $7MM from the Dodgers on a one-year free agent contract, even if that $7MM total dropped from an initial $11MM guarantee due to some concerns the team had about his overall health.  The 35-year-old lefty is hopeful that getting some innings under his belt last season will better help him manage the length of the 2024 campaign, plus L.A. will deploy “somewhat of a six-man rotation,” according to assistant pitching coach Connor McGuinness.  The idea is to keep all of the Dodgers’ hurlers fresh and healthy, plus some other reinforcements in Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May could join the pitching mix after the middle of the season.

Whereas Paxton’s 2023 season was basically divided in two, Max Muncy’s year was a bit more of a roller-coaster before he finished a pretty typical year of production.  The infielder hit .212/.333/.475 over 579 plate appearances while matching his career high of 36 home runs, translating to a 118 wRC+.  Los Angeles was impressed enough to sign Muncy to a new contract extension, guaranteeing him $24MM through 2025 while also tacking a $10MM club option on his services for 2026.

Muncy’s recipe of homers, walks, low averages, and high strikeouts is pretty set, but as he enters his age-33 season, Muncy feels he has more to offer as a defensive player.  He told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that his offseason regiment included cutting 15 pounds and focusing more on flexibility training.

“It was just making sure my feet move a little bit more, and getting the knees healthy.  Last year, I had a little trouble with just not staying down on the ball,” Muncy said.  “I was coming up out of my fielding stance and everything.  And when you’re doing that, it’s hard to read the hops and I kept putting myself in bad positions last year with bad hops….So the focus was just making sure that my feet stay moving.  Just allowing myself to read the ball and make moves on it.”

There’s basically nowhere to go but up for Muncy defensively, as the public defensive metrics (-7 Outs Above Average, -3 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) were unanimously unimpressed with his third base glovework in 2023.  The move to more or less a full-time third base role has come as the Dodgers have brought superstar talent into Muncy’s other positions — Shohei Ohtani is now locked in at DH, Freddie Freeman at first base, and Mookie Betts is now moving into  everyday second base duty.

“I’ve been very open about how I want to stay here for the rest of my career….So if I want to play here, I need to make sure I’m in the field, and the best way to do that is just put myself in a good spot,” Muncy said.

In other Dodgers news, GM Brandon Gomes told Plunkett and other reporters that catching prospect Diego Cartaya has been dealing with a back problem but the “full expectation” is that Cartaya will be set for the start of the Double-A season.  Back problems have bothered Cartaya in the past, and the last thing the catcher needs is an injury setback as he looks to bounce back from a difficult season.  A top-20 prospect in the sport heading into the 2023 campaign, Cartaya hit only .189/.278/.379 over 403 PA at Double-A last season, dropping his stock as a potential catcher of the future.

Nick Frasso is another top-100 prospect looking at a lost year, as he was already expected to miss the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in November.  Gomes added that Frasso also had a “clean-up” surgery on his right hip labrum, though it doesn’t appear as though this second procedure will impact the right-hander’s timeline.  If all goes well, Gomes thinks Frasso will be able to pitch in the Arizona Fall League.

“I’m an older player now, and I’m not perfect anymore,” Paxton told reporters, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “…So there’s things that have kind of built up over the years.”

In spite of the concerns that stemmed from his physical, Paxton indicated that he has “no doubt” that he’ll be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign, adding that he feels “strong and ready” as he enters camp. Per his revised, incentive-laden deal, Paxton will receive a $2MM bonus for being on the roster for either the start of the Korea series against the Padres, which begins on March 20, or the club’s stateside opener against the Cardinals the following week.

Paxton, 35, has been held back by injuries frequently throughout his career. Drafted by the Blue Jays with the 37th overall selection in the 2009 draft, the southpaw made his big league debut as a member of the Mariners back in 2013 and immediately impressed with a 1.50 ERA in a four-start cup of coffee. Through his age-30 season, Paxton regularly impressed when he was on the mound, showing the quality results of a #2 starter with a 3.50 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 26.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Paxton was limited to just 733 innings of work across those seven seasons by injury woes, which would only intensify as the calendar flipped to 2020. From 2020-22, Paxton managed just six appearances and 21 2/3 innings due to injuries.

The big lefty returned to the mound as a member of the Red Sox in May of last year and early in the season appeared to have made a triumphant return to the dominant form of his younger days. Through his first ten starts of the season, Paxton posted an impressive 2.73 ERA over 56 innings of work with a whopping 29% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the wheels came off for the veteran southpaw after the All Star break as he struggled to a 6.98 ERA and 6.16 FIP in 40 innings of work across his final nine starts of the season before he was shut down for the season with the aforementioned bout of knee inflammation following a start where Paxton allowed six runs while recording just four outs.

After that brutal series of struggles down the stretch, Paxton finished the 2023 campaign with a 4.50 ERA that was almost exactly league average by measure of ERA+. While the form the lefty flashed early in the season with Boston last year would make him a playoff-caliber arm, Paxton need only repeat his full-season performance from 2023 to be a useful piece for a Dodgers club looking to add veteran innings to a rotation that figures to be dominated by young starters with little to no big league experience like Bobby Miller and Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as players with substantial injury histories of their own like Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, and Walker Buehler.

That rotation mix offers little in the way of certainty, but young arms like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Michael Grove appear well-positioned to help out as needed throughout the season. An opportunity seems likely to be immediately available for those youngsters as both Buehler and Kershaw are expected to open the season on the injured list, though club officials have indicated that Buehler’s stay on the shelf could be a relatively short one.

As details of the agreement were initially trickling out last week, it was reported as an $11MM guarantee for the lefty. But Rosenthal reported this morning that the guarantee was actually just $7MM. It appears some sort of health concern popped up, which was enough to knock $4MM off the guarantee but not so serious as to cause the Dodgers to walk away. Paxton can still earn a total of $13MM via bonuses* as long as he makes the Opening Day roster and eventually makes at least 18 starts. Neither the club nor Paxton’s agent Scott Boras provided details for the report from The Athletic, citing HIPAA.

Health or the lack thereof has frequently been an issue for Paxton throughout his career. Now 35 and about to enter his 11th major league season, he has never reached 30 starts or 161 innings pitched in a big league campaign. He hardly pitched at all in the 2020-2022 period, with a left flexor strain keeping him to just five starts in the shortened 2020 season. Then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the next two years, with a torn lat preventing him from returning late in 2022.

Last year saw some encouraging progress from those significant injury issues but it wasn’t totally smooth sailing. A hamstring strain in the spring pushed his season debut until May. He was able to stay healthy from there until September, finishing the season on the injured list due to right knee inflammation. His 19 starts and 96 innings pitched were more than he logged in the previous three years combined, but he also seemed to run out of gas. He had a 2.73 ERA through his first 10 starts but then a 6.98 mark in the final nine.

It seems he’s still not 100% but the Dodgers will take a shot on him regardless. He has a 3.69 ERA in his career, pairing a 26.3% strikeout rate with a 7.5% walk rate. The club is generally unafraid to bank on talented players even if they have injury concerns, having signed guys like Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Jimmy Nelson, J.P. Feyereisen and Alex Reyes  in recent years.

They are now set to go into 2024 with a rotation featuring plenty of talent but also a decent amount of uncertainty. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has loads of success in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but has no MLB track record yet. Walker Buehler missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tyler Glasnow has never topped 120 innings in a major league season due to his own injury history. Bobby Miller was good last year but still doesn’t have a full year of big league experience. Options like Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are similarly unproven. Paxton would have already come with concerns just based on his track record but those will only be enhanced now that he’s known to be dealing with some kind of ailment.

It’s also possible that the club could re-sign Clayton Kershaw, as it has in each of the past two offseasons. But he is also a question mark, having undergone shoulder surgery in November that will keep him out of action until midseason.

* Paxton can get a $2MM bonus either for being on the roster for the Dodgers’ season opener in South Korea against the Padres on March 20 or their domestic opener against the Cardinals on March 28. Otherwise, he can earn a $1MM bonus if added to the roster before April 15. Paxton will also earn a $600K bonus for making his sixth, eighth, tenth, 12th and 16th starts of the season, plus a $1MM bonus for reaching 18 starts. With $4MM in bonuses based on starts and the $2MM early-season roster bonus, he could add $6MM to his $7MM guarantee, bringing his total earnings for the year to $13MM.

Paxton will also earn a $600K bonus for making his sixth, eighth, tenth, 12th and 16th starts of the season, plus a $1MM bonus for reaching 18 starts. In all, there’s an additional $6MM available in incentives. Essentially, if he’s healthy enough for to make the Opening Day roster and make 18 starts, he’ll earn $13MM on the one-year arrangement.

Jan. 23: An active offseason continues, as the Dodgers announced they have signed left-hander James Paxton to a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client is reportedly guaranteed $11MM, taking the form of a $3MM signing bonus and an $8MM salary. He’d also receive a $1MM roster bonus if he’s healthy enough to be active on Opening Day (or $500K if he starts the year on the injured list but returns by April 15).

The deal also contains up to $1MM in performance bonuses. He’d lock in an extra $250K for making 16 and 18 starts apiece and would max out the deal with another $500K for reaching 20 starts. Los Angeles has yet to formally announce the contract, but they already have a vacancy on the 40-man roster.

Los Angeles has been MLB’s most aggressive team. While they’ve committed upwards of a billion dollars in free agency, the rotation depth still stands as a bit of a question mark. Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 as he works back from elbow surgery. The Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and acquired Tyler Glasnow to join Walker Buehler  and Bobby Miller atop the starting staff.

There’s huge upside with that quartet, but it’s also a group that carries some risk. Excellent as Yamamoto has been in Japan, he has yet to pitch in the majors. Glasnow’s career high in innings at the MLB level, established last season, is only 120 frames. Buehler missed all of last season recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Miller had a very good rookie season but only has 22 MLB starts to his name.

L.A. had a few notable departures from the rotation. Julio Urías is a free agent and unlikely to return as MLB investigates domestic violence allegations against him. Clayton Kershaw is still unsigned. While the Dodgers would surely welcome him back, he wouldn’t be an option until at least midseason as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. Ryan Pepiot was dealt to Tampa Bay in the Glasnow deal.

Tony Gonsolin could miss all of next season after undergoing his own TJS procedure in late August. Dustin May will be sidelined into the season after a flexor tendon surgery in early July. With both pitchers starting the season on the injured list, Los Angeles may have had to turn the fifth starter role to one of Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough or Gavin Stone.

Should they finalize a deal with Paxton, he’d take the final spot in the Opening Day staff. He’s certainly not a bankable source of innings either. The 35-year-old has battled myriad injuries throughout his career, particularly over the last four years. He was limited to five starts during the shortened 2020 season. His elbow gave out during his first start of the ’21 campaign, necessitating Tommy John surgery. His efforts to make a comeback late in the ’22 season were derailed when he tore his lat on a minor league rehab stint.

A right hamstring strain forced the 6’4″ southpaw to open last year on the IL as well. He finally made it back on the mound in the second week of May. Despite the long layoff, Paxton brandished the 95 MPH fastball he’d owned before the surgery. For a while, that was translating into excellent results. The Canadian hurler worked to a 2.73 ERA while striking out more than 29% of opposing hitters in 56 innings through the All-Star Break.

He couldn’t maintain that form. Paxton allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine over 40 innings after the Midsummer Classic. His strikeouts plummeted to a modest 19.4% clip, while his walks jumped a few percentage points relative to the first half. Right knee inflammation sent him back to the IL in early September and ended his season a few weeks early. He finished the year with a 4.50 ERA in 96 innings covering 19 starts. His 24.6% strikeout rate was slightly above par, while he walked an average 8% of batters faced.

Given the volatility associated with the Dodgers’ collection of in-house arms, there’s an argument they should’ve pursued a more stable source of volume innings. That’s generally not how they’ve preferred to construct pitching staffs, however. The L.A. front office has shown a willingness to roll the dice on upside plays while accepting health risks. Paxton would be another acquisition of that ilk.

Of course, the Dodgers have the freedom to place those kinds of bets thanks to their spending capacity. Roster Resource projects the organization’s luxury tax commitments for the upcoming season at a staggering $301MM. Signing Paxton would push that number around $313MM, moving ahead of the Yankees and alongside the Mets for the highest payroll in the sport. That comes with a hefty tax bill.

The Dodgers are in the final tier of luxury penalization and have exceeded the threshold in each of the last two years. As a result, they’re taxed at a 110% rate on any spending at this point. Paxton’s deal would come with a $13.2MM fee, bringing their total expenditure to $25.2MM for one year of his services.

That’s a mark that few teams, if any, would come close to matching. Yet it’s the latest reflection of their all-in approach. Paxton would join Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández, Manuel Margot and returnees Jason Heyward and Joe Kelly as notable offseason pickups as the Dodgers push for an 11th NL West title in the last 12 years.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Dodgers and Paxton were working on an agreement. Alden González of ESPN reported the approximate $11MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported the presence of performance bonuses. Heyman was first to confirm the deal was done and the presence of the Opening Day roster bonus, while The Associated Press specified the performance bonus terms and the contract breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.