February 13: The Guardians and Jakob Junis are in agreement on a one-year, $4.5MM deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The signing is pending a physical for the Wasserman client. Cleveland’s 40-man roster is at capacity, though they can create a spot by placing any of Shane Bieber, David Fry or Sam Hentges on the 60-day injured list.

Junis adds versatility to Stephen Vogt’s pitching staff. The 32-year-old righty has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen throughout his career. He has pitched mostly in multi-inning relief roles over the last two seasons. That has suited him well, as Junis has turned in solid numbers in consecutive years. He pitched to a 3.87 earned run average with a career-best 26.2% strikeout rate across 80 innings for the Giants two seasons ago.

The uptick in strikeouts earned Junis a $7MM guarantee from the Brewers last offseason. Milwaukee intended to give him a rotation opportunity, but he suffered a shoulder impingement during his first start of the season. A scary fluke injury delayed his return from the injured list. A few weeks after the shoulder injury, Junis was struck in the neck by a fly ball while he was jogging in the outfield during batting practice. That necessitated a brief hospitalization.

Fortunately, Junis escaped the incident with no long-term effects. It set him back as he rehabbed the shoulder, though, leading Milwaukee to transfer him to the 60-day IL. The Brewers used him out of the bullpen when he returned towards the end of June. They packaged him alongside outfielder Joey Wiemer to the Reds to land Frankie Montas in a deadline deal.

The Reds initially kept Junis in the bullpen themselves. They stretched him back out as a starter for the season’s final month. While the Reds were essentially out of contention by that point, Junis performed well as a starter. He allowed two or fewer runs in each of his final six appearances (five starts and one long relief outing). He built back to 5-6 inning stints to close the year.

Though the injuries limited him to 67 innings, Junis turned in a career-low 2.69 ERA between the two NL Central clubs. He didn’t sustain his ’23 uptick in whiffs, as his strikeout rate dropped to a 20.2% clip that is more in line with his overall track record. The eight-year MLB veteran has excellent command though. He kept his walks to a career-low 3.2% rate last season and has issued free passes to fewer than 6% of opposing hitters throughout his career.

Junis sits in the 91-92 MPH range with his sinker and four-seam fastball. He leans most heavily on a low-80s slider. That has given him some trouble with left-handed batters in his career, but he was effective against hitters of either handedness last season. He held lefties to a .218/.238/.406 line while stifling right-handed batters to a .193/.236/.329 slash. That could give Vogt the confidence to plug him into a season-opening rotation role.

For the second straight year, the rotation is Cleveland’s biggest question. Tanner Bibee is the staff ace, at least until Bieber returns from his Tommy John rehab. He’ll likely be followed by some combination of Ben Lively, Gavin Williams and trade pickup Luis Ortiz. Junis could compete with Triston McKenzie, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen for the fifth starter role. McKenzie is out of options and will likely be on the MLB team in some capacity. Each of Allen, Cantillo and Cecconi have an option remaining and can head to Triple-A Columbus if they don’t earn an Opening Day rotation spot.

The signing pushes Cleveland’s projected payroll to roughly $100MM, according to RosterResource. That’s right in line with last year’s $98MM season-opening payroll and a few million dollars below where they ended the ’24 campaign. They could still have a few million dollars for a depth acquisition or two after winning the division and earning an ALCS berth.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Jakob Junis is one pitcher we considered for the list but who just missed the cut. The righty hasn’t appeared in any rumors of note this winter. MLBTR hasn’t written about him since he declined his end of a mutual option and became a free agent at the start of November.

The righty was a free agent last winter as well and agreed to a deal with the Brewers almost exactly one year ago. Reports emerged on February 5 of 2024 that he would sign a one-year deal with Milwaukee, a $7MM guarantee.

It took a bit of time for his season to get momentum. He made one appearance in early April before landing on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement. His return was delayed by a scary fluke incident. He was doing some on-field jogging during batting practice before a game when he was struck by an errant ball. He didn’t come off the IL until late June.

After coming off the IL, he pitched multi-inning relief outings for the Brewers. But just over a month after being reinstated, he was flipped to the Reds as part of the deadline deal which sent Frankie Montas to Milwaukee. He pitched out of the Cincinnati bullpen for a while but moved to the rotation down the stretch as that club dealt with a number of injuries and was playing out the string on the season.

Despite the delayed ramp-up and the midseason change of scenery, Junis still managed to log some good numbers on the whole. He made 24 appearances, including six starts, throwing 67 innings. He allowed just 2.69 earned runs per nine frames. He got a bit of help from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 77.9% strand rate, but his 3.69 FIP and 3.72 SIERA suggest he still would have been effective even with neutral fortune from the baseball gods. His 20.2% strikeout rate was down a bit from the year prior but he also dropped his walk rate all the way to a miniscule 3.2%.

That’s now four straight seasons of pretty decent production from Junis. Over the 2021 to 2024 campaigns, he made 33 starts and 70 relief appearances. In that time, he posted a 3.99 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate. Control is clearly a strength, as he’s never finished a season with a walk rate higher than 7.5%. His strikeout rates have been fairly average, but he has occasionally found an extra gear in that department. He punched out 24.4% of opponents in 2021 and 26.2% in 2023, though he was down closer to 20% in 2022 and 2024.

In terms of his arsenal, his four-seamer and sinker averaged around 92 miles per hour last year, though he also threw a slider, changeup and cutter. The slider has been his most important weapon, as he has thrown that more than any other pitch in each of the last five seasons. The Stuff+ metric has given the pitch a grade around 110 pretty consistently for the past five years and he averaged 13.4 inches of horizontal break on it in 2024, per Statcast, putting it 11th among sliders from qualified pitchers last year in that department. Hitters generally put up batting averages around the Mendoza line against it, including a slash of .183/.230/.346 last year.

Junis doesn’t have notable concerns in his splits. As a right-hander, lefties have hit him better, but not drastically so. He has allowed a line of .286/.340/.473 without the platoon advantage in his career, only a bit better than his .248/.300/.430 line allowed to righties.

He’s also capable of putting up decent numbers from both the rotation or the bullpen. As a starter over the past four years, he has a 3.76 ERA, 22.4% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate. As a reliever in that span, he has a 4.22 ERA that seems inflated by a .332 BABIP, as his 22.8% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate are very similar to his rotation work.

Based on the quiet winter, it’s possible that Junis will wind up with a similar deal to the $7MM guarantee he got last winter. In the past month or so, Michael Lorenzen, Martín Pérez and Colin Rea have signed one-year deals in that range, with Lorenzen getting $7MM and the other two getting $5MM. Here are the numbers for those guys over the past two years, with that range selected because Rea was pitching in Japan in 2022:

• Junis: 153 innings, 3.35 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate
• Lorenzen: 283 1/3 innings, 3.78 ERA, 17.9% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate
• Rea: 292 1/3 innings, 4.40 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate
• Perez: 276 2/3 innings, 4.49 ERA,  16.7% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate

Junis has a lower innings tally than everyone in that group, due in part to his injured list stint in 2024 and because the Giants mostly used him out of the bullpen in 2023. But on a rate basis, he’s been clearly a cut above those recent back-end starters/swing guys that have signed lately. Plenty of clubs still need pitching help and injuries will surely be discovered in the coming weeks as pitchers ramp up in camp. If some club goes out looking for late-winter bargains, Junis seems like a good candidate.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati declined a $3.5MM option on catcher Luke Maile in favor of a $500K buyout, while right-hander Jakob Junis declined his end of an $8MM mutual option. He’ll be paid a $3MM buyout. Each of Martinez, Maile and Junis are now free agents.

Martinez, now 34, has shown a strong willingness to bet on himself when it comes to contracts. After pitching in Japan from 2018 to 2021, he has returned to North America and continually signed deals with opt-outs that he has triggered.

Going into 2022, he signed a four-year, $25.5MM deal with the Padres with the ability to opt-out after each season. He eventually triggered his first opt-out and re-signed with the Friars for 2023, a $26MM guarantee over three years with a convoluted club/player option structure. After the 2023 season, the Padres turned down a two-year, $32MM club option and then Martinez turned down his two-year, $16MM player option. He then signed a two-year, $26MM deal with the Reds that again allowed him to opt out after one season.

With the Padres before and with the Reds in 2024, Martinez oscillated between the rotation and bullpen. He got into 42 games this year, including 16 starts, tossing 142 1/3 innings with a 3.10 earned run average. His 20.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 3.2% walk rate was elite. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched this year, only George Kirby gave out free passes at a lower rate.

Both with the Padres and Reds, his results have been better out of the bullpen. This year, he had a 3.84 ERA as a starter but a 1.86 mark as a reliever. Whether he’ll be viewed as a reliever or starter will likely differ from club to club, but he should be able to top $12MM on the open market, making his decision to opt out a logical one.

Now the Reds will be able to issue him a qualifying offer and it has been suggested in some circles that they will consider it. Though Martinez is a solid contributor, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him offered a $21.05MM QO.

None of his previous contracts have had an average annual value higher than $13MM, so he would likely accept such an offer. The Reds have generally had payrolls just a bit above $100MM in most recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so Martinez accepting the QO would take up something approaching a fifth of their payroll. That’s a lot of money to commit to a swingman.

Suter, 35, has been a steady performer in the big leagues for close to a decade now. Debuting back in 2016, he now has a 3.45 ERA in over 500 career innings. He signed with the Reds in the offseason and gave them 65 2/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA. His strikeout rate wasn’t great but he demonstrated excellent control and his usual propensity for limiting damage. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate were both in the 96th percentile, according to Statcast.

His previous deal came with a $2.5MM salary for 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for 2025. As mentioned, the Reds gave him that buyout and worked out a new salary for the upcoming season, also securing a club option for ’26.

Maile doesn’t hit much but has a strong reputation as a defender and game-caller. That continued to be the case this year, as he slashed .178/.268/.252 but with solid work behind the plate.

The Reds are moving on today but could perhaps circle back to Maile at a lower price point. Tyler Stephenson is the only backstop on the 40-man roster now, so they will need to find a backup, whether that’s Maile or someone else.

Junis, 32, has generally had solid results in his career. However, his 2024 was largely held back by injury. He signed with the Brewers in the winter, a $7MM guarantee broken up into a $4MM salary and a $3MM option.

He went on the injured list early in the year due to a right shoulder impingement. His return from that injury was delayed when he was struck by a batted ball during BP. He eventually tossed 67 innings on the year with a 2.69 ERA, getting flipped from the Brewers to the Reds as part of the deadline deal that sent Frankie Montas to Milwaukee.

Going back to the start of 2021, Junis has thrown 304 1/3 innings with a 3.99 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate and should be able to secure himself a solid deal in free agency.

Montas, 31, gives the Brewers a veteran arm to plug into a rotation that’s been decimated by injury, although the big right-hander isn’t having anywhere close to his best season. The longtime A’s hurler signed a one-year, $16MM contract after missing nearly the entire 2023 season due to shoulder surgery and hasn’t recaptured the form that established him as a quality big leaguer from 2019-22, when he logged 480 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with a 25.4% strikeout rate against a 7.2% walk rate.

Rather, the 2024 version of Montas is sitting on a 5.01 ERA with a diminished 19% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate that stands as his worst since 2017. His 95.3 mph average fastball is down 1.5 mph from its 96.8 mph peak back in 2019, and Montas has seen a huge dip in swinging-strike rate, falling from a peak 13.7% to 10.4% this season.

It’s been an ugly season for Montas, but the Brewers also have a history of getting more out of pitchers than one would expect at first glance. They’ve gotten strong results from righties Colin Rea and Tobias Myers this season despite minimal to nonexistent track records from both. Milwaukee presumably has a plan to get Montas back into form, but it’s nevertheless a modest surprise to see them deal a former top prospect (Wiemer) within the division to effectively rent Montas for the final two months of the 2024 season.

That said, Wiemer’s inclusion in the deal speaks to the manner in which his stock has dropped over the past year-plus. Entering the 2023 season, he was regarded by some as one of the sport’s top-100 prospects. However, the 2020 fourth-rounder stumbled through his first taste of the majors last year, hitting just .204/.283/.362 in 410 plate appearances. Wiemer pounded 13 homers and swiped 11 bags but also struck out in just under 29% of his plate appearances. He’s also shown glaring platoon splits in limited big league action, slashing .263/.290/.481 against lefties but registering a woeful .169/.271/.281 slash against fellow righties. Wiemer’s power has been missing in action this season in Triple-A Nashville, where he’s hit .242/.387/.358 with only three homers in 253 plate appearances.

Wiemer’s platoon splits suggest that he could at the very least be a useful part-time player, and he’s also graded out exceptionally well in the outfield. In 1095 innings across all three outfield spots — primarily center — he’s been credited with six Defensive Runs Saved, seven Outs Above Average and a 5.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast pegged him in the 93rd percentile of MLB outfielders in terms of range and 96th percentile in terms of value generated with his arm.

If nothing else, Wiemer has the look of a short-side platoon fourth outfielder. He’s in the second of three option years and is under club control through at least the 2029 season. The Reds will hope there’s some more in the tank, but pulling a controllable MLB-ready outfielder — even one in the midst of a down season — in exchange for the rental of a struggling veteran starter had some understandable appeal for Cincinnati.

The Reds will also pick up their own veteran rental in the deal. The 31-year-old Junis is on a one-year, $7MM contract that contains a mutual option for the 2025 season. He’s spent most of the year on the injured list but returned in June and has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, working primarily as a long reliever. He’s fanned 18.8% of his opponents against a 5% walk rate. Had Junis been healthy this year, he might’ve gotten a look in the rotation, but the Brewers must not be bullish on his chances of holding up in that role. He hasn’t worked more than three innings since returning from the injured list.

Junis gives the Reds an experienced swingman who could potentially start some games or at least serve as a bulk option behind an opener. His inclusion in the swap also adds something of a financial counterweight; Montas is owed $4.7MM of his $14MM salary still, plus the $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option for next season. Junis is still owed $1.35MM of his $4MM salary plus a $3MM buyout on his $8MM mutual option. (Mutual options, it should be noted, are generally accounting measures and are almost never exercised; it’s been about a decade since the last time a player and team both agreed to exercise a mutual option.)

The Brewers are reportedly still sending about $1MM to the Reds in the deal to offset the gap in the option buyouts. In total, Milwaukee is taking on about $3.35MM in extra expenses in order to facilitate the trade.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Brewers were acquiring Montas. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported Junis and Wiemer were headed back to Cincinnati. Feinsand reported the cash considerations.

June 20: Brewers rookie left-hander Robert Gasser will undergo surgery to fix the UCL in his throwing elbow, he told reporters this evening (X link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). It won’t be clear until the operation whether he requires a full Tommy John reconstruction or a modified ligament repair. Even in the better scenario of a slightly less significant procedure like the internal brace surgery, Gasser said he expects to miss at least a full calendar year.

The 25-year-old southpaw made his major league debut last month. Gasser found immediate success, working 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball through his first five starts. The University of Houston product only walked one of the 114 hitters he faced. While he certainly wouldn’t have maintained that level of control, Gasser has been a solid strike-thrower whom most scouts expect to stick in the rotation. Baseball America ranked him the #5 prospect in the Milwaukee system and slotted him among the sport’s top 100 minor league talents entering the season.

Gasser’s initial MLB success might have increased his stock a little bit, even though his 14% strikeout percentage was well below the swing-and-miss rates he’d shown in the minor leagues. He’d certainly performed well enough to continue taking the ball every fifth day in a patchwork Milwaukee rotation. Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea have been the constants. Peralta is the unquestioned staff ace, while Rea has stepped up with a 3.29 ERA over 76 2/3 innings despite a modest 16.7% strikeout rate.

Milwaukee has otherwise cycled through a number of starters as they’ve navigated various injuries. They have lost an entire rotation to extended absences. Wade Miley underwent Tommy John surgery after two starts. Jakob Junis has pitched once all season. DL Hall has been sidelined since April. Joe Ross went down in May with a lower back strain; he suffered a setback a couple weeks ago. Gasser is now also out for the season. That’s not even counting Brandon Woodruff, whom the Brewers knew would miss all of 2024 after he underwent shoulder surgery last October.

Bryse Wilson and Tobias Myers have stepped into the third and fourth rotation spots. While they’ve each managed decent run prevention numbers, neither pitcher is without question marks. Wilson opened the season as a reliever and has an unimpressive strikeout and walk profile as a starter. Myers is a former minor league signee on the sixth organization of his professional career. His 21.7% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk percentage are fine, but he’s had to work around an elevated home run rate.

The fifth rotation spot has recently fallen to Carlos Rodriguez, a rookie who has allowed seven runs in 8 1/3 innings over his first two starts. Junis is nearing a return from the 60-day injured list — MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that he could be reinstated as soon as tomorrow — but he isn’t expected to immediately step back into a rotation spot. Junis has only made two abbreviated rehab appearances for Triple-A Nashville. The Brewers have suggested he’s likely to work out of the bullpen initially as they try to expedite his return to the major league staff.

In that context, it’s remarkable that the Brewers have managed a 44-30 record and pulled out to a fairly comfortable 7.5 game lead in the NL Central. They’ll almost certainly bring in at least one starting pitcher before the July 30 trade deadline. There’s a reasonable argument for GM Matt Arnold and his staff to land multiple rotation pickups. Losing Gasser should only add to the urgency to address what was the team’s biggest question mark well before their last couple months of terrible injury news.

Gasser is on the MLB injured list and will collect service time and be paid at the league minimum rate for whatever time he spends on the IL. Milwaukee can move him to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot whenever that need arises. (They already have a vacancy for Junis’ reinstatement after designating Elieser Hernández for assignment last night.) Gasser will not get to a full service year and remains controllable for six seasons beyond this one.

Gasser joined the Milwaukee rotation three weeks ago. He has pitched very well in his first five big league starts, turning in a 2.57 ERA through 28 innings. While Gasser only has 16 strikeouts (a subpar 14% rate), he has shown impeccable control. The Houston product has only issued one walk, though he has hit three batters.

Acquired from the Padres as part of the 2022 Josh Hader return, Gasser already looks like a key piece of a Milwaukee rotation that has been hit hard by injury. The Brewers knew they’d be without Brandon Woodruff all season, but they’ve lost Wade Miley, DL Hall, Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to the injured list since the year began. Gasser has stepped in alongside Bryse Wilson and Colin Rea as part of a patchwork rotation behind Freddy Peralta.

Milwaukee has overcome that spotty rotation to run a 36-24 record through their first 60 games. They’ve built a 6.5 game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central. Losing Gasser, if testing reveals any kind of injury, would represent another hurdle, though the Brewers could welcome back a few of their currently injured hurlers.

Junis is headed to Triple-A Nashville to begin a rehab assignment, tweets Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Signed to a $7MM free agent deal, Junis has been limited to one start thus far. The right-hander went on the injured list with a shoulder impingement during the first week of April. His rehab process was slightly delayed when he was struck in the head by an errant ball during batting practice, but he fortunately avoided any especially serious injuries. Murphy has previously indicated that Junis could return in a multi-inning relief role after opening the year in the rotation.

Ross, who went on the IL on May 21 with a lower back strain, could also return in the coming weeks. Rosiak notes that the right-hander is set to throw a bullpen session this weekend. The 31-year-old has started nine games, pitching to a 4.50 ERA over 42 innings.

Milwaukee also announced that starter Freddy Peralta will begin serving his five-game suspension tonight. The right-hander received the ban after MLB determined he intentionally threw at Rays outfielder Jose Siri last week. Players suspended for on-field rules violations cannot be replaced on the roster. The Brewers will play with 25 men for the next few days.

Herget returns to American Family Field for his second stint of the season. Milwaukee signed him to a minor league deal in Spring Training and selected his contract two weeks into April. They designated him for assignment a few days later and passed him though waivers. The 33-year-old accepted the minor league assignment and is back after making six more appearances in Nashville. Five of those were scoreless. Herget has had one nightmare outing where he was tagged for five runs in an inning and a third. Otherwise, he has kept opponents off the board this season.

The Brewers never called upon Herget during his first stay in the big leagues, so he’s still looking to make his team debut. He has pitched for the Rays and Reds over the past two years. In 31 1/3 innings, he owns a 5.74 ERA with a well below-average 12.4% strikeout rate. Herget has allowed 4.23 earned runs per nine across parts of seven seasons in Triple-A. His 22.8% strikeout percentage at the top minor league level is closer to average. He also consistently throws strikes, walking fewer than 7% of Triple-A opponents and only 4.4% of batters faced in his limited MLB work.

Junis has been out since April 3, when he landed on the IL with a shoulder impingement. The 60-day minimum is retroactive to the time of his initial placement on the injured list. He’ll be out of action until at least the start of June. Junis’ rehab hit a scary setback when he was struck in the head by a fly-ball during batting practice a couple weeks ago.

The righty was taken to a hospital for further evaluation but thankfully indicated a few days later that he didn’t suffer any serious injuries. He has been lightly throwing recently but will still need to build his pitch count and embark on a minor league rehab assignment. Junis started the season in the rotation after signing a $7MM free agent deal over the offseason. The Brewers have suggested he might work out of the bullpen once he’s ready to return.

It’s not currently clear how serious Wicks’s injury is or if a stint on the injured list will be required, but a lengthy absence would be a major blow to the Cubs. The club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has pitched solidly for the Cubs through five starts this season, posting a roughly league average 4.70 ERA and a much stronger 3.25 FIP in 23 innings of work. An trip to the shelf for Wicks would further exacerbate Chicago’s early-season injury woes. Hurlers Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, and Julian Merryweather are all currently on the injured list (though the former may be back soon) while the positional corps has lost both Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger from its outfield mix.

The laundry list of injuries has left the Cubs somewhat thin in terms of rotation options, with both Ben Brown and now Wesneski stepping in to make starts after previously pitching out of the bullpen for the big league club. Chicago signed veteran right-hander Julio Teheran to a minor league deal in earlier this month, and the 33-year-old righty and lefty Thomas Pannone among the club’s top non-roster depth options for the rotation.

More from the NL Central…

• Brewers right-hander Jakob Junis suffered a scary incident earlier this week when he was struck by an errant fly ball during the club’s pregame workouts prior to a game against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Fortunately, Junis is back traveling with the team and spoke to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel yesterday. The right-hander noted that he underwent an MRI and CT scan, both of which came back clean, before he was released from the hospital. Now that he’s back with the team, it appears Junis is set to continue rehabbing from the shoulder impingement that has cost him most of the season to this point. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Brewers manager Pat Murphy recently indicated that the club may look to bring Junis back into the fold as a reliever rather than build him up to start. It’s something of a surprise given the recent injuries suffered by lefties DL Hall and Wade Miley, though it’s possible that a multi-inning relief role could allow the Brewers to maximize Junis’s innings in the short-term.
• Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson has missed the entire season to this point after suffering a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before Opening Day. Fortunately, however, it appears that the 25-year-old could be nearing his season debut. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Carlson is set to begin a rehab assignment in the near future if he comes out of a hitting session today pain-free. The return of Carlson would be most welcome for St. Louis, as the club recently optioned struggling youngster Jordan Walker to the minor leagues. With Carlson and Tommy Edman both on the injured list, that’s left the club to rely on Michael Siani and Alec Burleson as major contributors to the outfield mix alongside Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.

Per Marmol, Gray will be limited to around 65 pitches in his Cardinals debut, where he’ll take on the Phillies in the second game of a three-game set between the clubs. Gray landed in St. Louis back in November on a three-year, $75MM deal following a dominant 2023 season in Minnesota. The right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP for the Twins last year in a performance that earned him his third career All Star appearance and a second-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting behind Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

The Cardinals are surely hoping Gray will bring that same form to St. Louis. The club was plagued by one of the worst starting pitching staffs in the majors last year, and the early returns haven’t been much better so far with the rotation’s 5.64 FIP in the young 2024 campaign is better than only the Rockies and Blue Jays among all big league clubs. Upon his return, Gray figures to replace struggling youngster Zack Thompson in the club’s rotation mix, slotting in alongside fellow veterans Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn.

More from around the NL Central…

• The Cubs made a surprise roster move just before the start of their game against the Dodgers this afternoon, placing right-hander Julian Merryweather on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder strain as noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. It’s a significant blow to the club’s relief corps, as Merryweather has dominated with a 3.29 ERA (136 ERA+) and a nearly matching 3.46 FIP in 73 appearances for the Cubs across the past two seasons. Merryweather’s absence will pave the way for right-hander Daniel Palencia, who pitched to a 4.45 ERA across 27 appearances in his rookie season last year, to join the club’s bullpen. Meanwhile, Merryweather’s role in the club’s late-inning mix alongside Adbert Alzolay and Hector Neris figures to be filled by Mark Leiter Jr.
• Speaking of pitching roster moves, the Brewers placed right-hander Jakob Junis on the 15-day IL yesterday due to a right shoulder impingement. Fortunately for Milwaukee, it sounds as though the issue isn’t particularly serious. According to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, an MRI on Junis’s shoulder came back clean and Junis told reporters that he hopes to begin ramping back up in a few days. That would seem to indicate an absence near the minimum for the right-hander, who’s been replaced by southpaw Aaron Ashby on the active roster while he recuperates. Ashby, 26 next month, did not pitch in the majors last year after undergoing shoulder surgery but now appears to be healthy, having already made a five-inning start at the Triple-A level this season.

Fletcher and McCarthy share a similar profile as 26-year-old, left-handed hitting outfielders who can play any of the three positions on the grass.  McCarthy was the 39th overall pick of the 2018 draft and has more Major League experience, with a .261/.331/.380 slash line over 736 plate appearances in the Show.  A fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 seemed to hint at McCarthy’s potential as a building block for the Snakes, yet a tough 2023 season saw him relegated to the minors and then to the Diamondbacks’ bench as the year developed.  Arizona’s willingness to move on from either player and the Southsiders’ decision to take Fletcher provides some interesting wrinkles to this trade, and it might be interesting to revisit this deal in a few years’ time once we see how the careers of Fletcher, McCarthy, and Mena have developed.

Here’s more from the Windy City’s two teams…

• Though the top four in the Cubs rotation seems set and several candidates are vying for the fifth starter’s job, Jakob Junis “recently” drew some interest from Wrigleyville, as per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma.  The depth of the interest isn’t known, though it might’ve been something of a due diligence move by the Cubs since no formal offer was made.  Junis’ experience as a swingman means that he wouldn’t have necessarily even been in the rotation, so the Cubs could’ve been looking at Junis to bolster the bullpen and also add even more depth to the starting mix.  In any case, Junis is no longer an option, as the right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM contract with the Brewers last week.
• In another piece from Mooney and Sharma, they look at the Cubs’ unsettled third base situation.  Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal seem poised to get the bulk of playing time, with Christopher Morel getting the occasional start at the hot corner, and Miles Mastrobuoni or rookie Luis Vazquez providing further depth.  There’s enough uncertainty here that Mooney/Sharma feel the Cubs might again make a trade deadline move at the position, akin to their deal for Jeimer Candelario this past summer.  Of course, the Cubs have also been linked to Matt Chapman this winter if the team still had a bigger-ticket free agent upgrade in mind, though a longer-term answer might block top prospect Matt Shaw, who has been working out as a third baseman this offseason.
• Reports surfaced last month that the White Sox were speaking with development company Related Midwest about the potential of building a new ballpark on a portion of land in Chicago’s South Loop area.  Related Midwest recently released a series of artist renderings to media (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) about what this new stadium and the associated “ballpark village” area might look like alongside the Chicago River, as well as some proposed renderings of how the area around Guaranteed Rate Field could be developed if the Sox moved to a new site.  Obviously a lot of hurdles still have to be crossed with the White Sox, developers, civic and state officials, and many other parties before this proposed ballpark could become a reality, and the earliest possible opening date would seem to be 2030, since the team’s lease at Guaranteed Rate Field runs through the 2029 season.

Junis hit the open market for the first time coming off a quietly strong platform showing. The 31-year-old pitched 86 innings over 40 appearances as a multi-inning reliever for the Giants a year ago. He turned in a personal-low 3.87 ERA while striking out an above-average 26.2% of opposing hitters. That was the best mark of his career, as was his 11.3% swinging strike rate.

An uptick in velocity played a part in his improved swing-and-miss results. Junis averaged 93.7 MPH on his sinker, above the 91-92 MPH range in which his fastball had sat for his career. He also added a tick to his slider, which clocked in at 84.2 MPH on average after sitting in the 82-83 MPH area in prior years. Adding some speed to the slider was probably more important than the extra life on the fastball. Junis uses the breaking pitch at an atypical rate.

The slider has been his primary pitch in each of the last four seasons. He pushed it to new heights in 2023, turning to the breaker nearly 63% of the time. That didn’t come at the expense of the strong control he’s shown throughout his career. He walked under 6% of opponents for the fourth time out of his five MLB seasons with 40+ innings.

As one might expect given his slider/sinker profile, Junis has been more effective against same-handed hitters. Since the start of 2022, righty batters have a .254/.297/.414 line while striking out nearly a quarter of the time against him. Left-handed bats have fanned at a modest 20.3% rate and turned in a robust .290/.341/.494 showing over that stretch.

It’s easier for a manager to navigate around those platoon issues when Junis is pitching in a relief role, even one in which he frequently works multiple innings. It could be a bigger concern as a starter, although it wouldn’t be surprising if skipper Pat Murphy tends to minimize his exposure to opposing lineups more than twice in an outing.

That’s generally how Milwaukee seems to be approaching the 2024 rotation. They’ve moved on from their pair of co-aces. Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered after the revelation he needed shoulder surgery, while Corbin Burnes was traded last week. That left the Brew Crew with Freddy Peralta as the unquestioned staff ace, followed by pitchers with varying degrees of injury or performance concerns.

Milwaukee re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea to factor into the middle of the staff. They took a flier on Joe Ross, who missed most of last season working back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Hard-throwing southpaw DL Hall came back from Baltimore in the Burnes return. Aaron Ashby is still trying to carve out a rotation role despite various injuries, including a shoulder procedure that wiped out his ’23 season. Prospects Robert Gasser, Jacob Misiorowski and Carlos Rodriguez loom in the upper minors.

It’s unlikely to be the kind of dominant rotation Milwaukee has trotted out in recent seasons, even if there’s a decent amount of intrigue with Junis, Ashby and the aforementioned collection of young pitchers. There aren’t many reliable sources of innings, which could force Murphy to lean heavily on his relief group.

The $4MM salary brings Milwaukee’s payroll projection around $105MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s approximate $119MM mark. It’s unclear whether ownership is willing to match last season’s spending level. If there’s payroll room, the roster could benefit from an additional bench bat and perhaps another left-handed reliever to pair with Hoby Milner.

MLBTR ranked Junis as the offseason’s #47 free agent, predicting a two-year, $15MM guarantee. He comes up short of that figure on a one-year deal. He’ll look to establish himself as a starter before returning to free agency next winter in advance of his age-32 season. The mutual option is essentially an accounting measure that allows the Brewers to push $3MM of the guarantee to the start of next offseason. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so Junis is very likely to head back to the market a year from now.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Junis, 31, defied the odds as a 29th-round pick by the Royals in the 2011 draft and managed to make the majors during the 2017 season. In the years since then, the right-hander has managed to put together a solid career while swinging between the bullpen and the rotation for both Kansas City and San Francisco. While he typically offered roughly league average production for most of his career, Junis enjoyed a career year with the Giants this past season as he pitched to a 3.87 ERA with a 3.74 FIP in 86 innings of work. In 40 appearances for San Francisco last year, Junis struck out a career-best 26.2% of batters faced while walking just 5.7%.

Impressive as Junis was last season, the right-hander is unlikely to be an impactful addition to the Red Sox rotation mix if signed as he tended to pitch most effectively in shorter bursts last year. The righty surrendered a 5.32 ERA in 31 innings of work across nine appearances where he threw 50 pitches or more last year. By contrast, Junis posted a strong 2.95 ERA across 39 2/3 innings of work in 26 appearances where he threw 40 pitches or less. Junis’s success in shorter appearances could make him an interesting relief option for the Red Sox, particularly if the club parts with closer Kenley Jansen before Opening Day.

Heuer, meanwhile, would be more of a speculative addition by the Red Sox. The right-hander last pitched in the majors back in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow, but sports a solid 3.56 ERA and 3.66 FIP across 91 innings of work in the majors between the White Sox and Cubs. The righty was nothing short of dominant for the south siders during the 2020 season in particular, as he paired a 50% groundball rate with a upper-90s heater that allowed him to strike out 27.2% of batters faced in 21 appearances. The Cubs non-tendered Heuer earlier this offseason, likely thanks to his two-year layoff from pitching while rehabbing from multiple elbow issues. Still, the 27-year-old hurler has flashed set-up caliber skills during his limited big league appearances and could be a savvy add to the Boston bullpen if healthy.

More from around the American League…

• The Twins are lacking in starting pitching depth after losing right-handers Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle in free agency earlier this winter, and GM Thad Levine acknowledged that concern during a recent appearance on MLBNetwork Radio. During the appearance, Levine noted that the club feels comfortable with its current starting five of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland, but that hasn’t stopped the club from exploring both the trade and free agent markets for other rotation options. Bolstering the club’s rotation mix would not only provide the club with much-needed depth to safeguard against injury but could also give Varland competition for the fifth-starter role, allowing him to return to the multi-inning bullpen role in which he thrived late last season. Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, and Hyun Jin Ryu are among the mid-level rotation options still available this winter.
• Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom made just six starts for the reigning World Series champions before undergoing Tommy John surgery last spring, but optimism remains at the oft-injured ace will be able to contribute to the club at some point during the 2024 campaign. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, deGrom provided a health update to reporters during the club’s FanFest this weekend. The righty indicated that his arm is feeling good seven months removed from going under the knife and that he currently plans to begin throwing again “sometime this spring.” While deGrom did not mention a timetable for his return to the big league mound, the update tracks with previous comments from the right-hander back in October, which indicated he was targeting a return to the majors in August of 2024. Among the most talented pitchers of his generation, it’s hard to overstate the potential impact deGrom could have for the Rangers this year if he’s available for the stretch run and a potential playoff push. Over his past 108 starts dating back to the 2018 season, deGrom has posted a 2.08 ERA with a near-matching 2.11 FIP and a whopping 921 strikeouts in just 675 2/3 innings of work.

Junis would be an interesting asset to both the rotation or bullpen, given his experience as a swingman over the last few seasons.  Junis has started 27 of his 79 appearances from 2021-23, though his four starts in 2023 are more correctly described as opener/piggyback duty.  The Giants used Junis and several other pitchers in somewhat haphazard fashion to cover three rotation spots, making for a wide array of opener/bulk pitcher scenarios, bullpen games, and two swingmen working in concert for multi-inning duty.

This type of flexibility might make Junis particularly useful on a Philadelphia team that already has a set starting five (Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Cristopher Sanchez).  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently spoke of the difficulties in attracting quality depth options to a club that doesn’t have any openings if everyone is healthy, whereas another club with a less settled rotation can offer a free agent more of an opportunity to earn a starting job.  However, Junis’ history of moving back and forth between pitching roles means that the Phillies could possibly regard him as just an available arm, rather than strictly as a depth starter or a reliever.

After posting a 4.75 ERA over his first 627 1/3 MLB innings from 2017-22, Junis had a 3.87 ERA in 2023, finishing well above the league average in walk rate, strikeout rate, and hard-contact rate.  The latter two statistics are particularly noteworthy, as Junis had usually posted below-average numbers in those departments during his career.  This could suggest that the mostly multi-inning relief role agreed with Junis, as it allowed him to lean harder on his best pitch — a slider that batters hit only .216 against in 2023.

Dylan Covey, Nick Nelson, and the newly-acquired Kolby Allard look like the top depth options in the event of an injury, plus the Phillies could also consider using Matt Strahm as a starter again.  If signed, Junis could simply push everyone down a step on the depth chart, with Allard, Covey, and Nelson competing for perhaps just one big league job.  Covey is also out of minor league options, perhaps giving him some leg up on the competition.

Maton would be a straight-forward addition to the bullpen, and a durable addition at that — since the start of the 2021 season, only eight pitchers have appeared in more games than Maton’s 200 outings.  In a swap that now looks like a steal for the Astros, Houston acquired Maton and Yainer Diaz from Cleveland for Myles Straw at the 2021 trade deadline, and Maton has since delivered a 3.67 ERA over 157 regular-season innings and a minuscule 0.49 ERA over 18 1/3 innings in the postseason.  Maton didn’t participate in the Astros’ World Series run in 2022, however, as a fractured pinkie finger kept him off the playoff roster entirely.

Maton turns 31 in March, and he has found success despite a fastball that averaged only 89mph in 2023.  His above-average strikeout numbers speak to his elite spin rates, and few (if any) pitchers in baseball are better than Maton at limiting hard contact.  Maton’s barrel rates are good but not outstanding, as he is prone to giving up homers on the rare occasions that batters are able to really square up on his pitches.

The Cardinals and Yankees have been linked to Maton’s market this offseason, while the Astros reportedly showed only limited interest in a reunion even before Houston signed Josh Hader.  Junis’ market has been more of a mystery, as the Phillies are the first team known to have any public interest in the right-hander all winter.

Junis has not pitched since Saturday, when he exited the Giants’ game against the Dodgers with pain in his neck. The injury has now been diagnosed as a cervical strain, and it will keep him on the shelf for the remainder of the regular season. The veteran right-hander has pitched well for San Francisco in a multi-inning role, tossing 86 innings in 40 games with a 3.87 ERA. Currently 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, the Giants are still holding out hope for a postseason berth. If they manage to pull off a miraculous comeback, it’s possible Junis could rejoin the team in the playoffs.

Bart, once the Giants’ catcher of the future, is now the third-string backstop on the roster. Rookie sensation Patrick Bailey has become the everyday catcher, while his fellow first-year player Blake Sabol has been a capable backup. Meanwhile, Bart has faced numerous injury setbacks this year, and even when he’s been able to take the field, the 26-year-old has struggled to hit at both the major and minor league levels. Thus, it’s hard to guess what kind of role he’ll play over the final two series of the season. Presumably, the Giants will lean heavily on Bailey and Sabol behind the dish, at least until they are mathematically eliminated from contention.

After posting a dominant 1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 innings of work during his first season in San Francisco last year, the 33-year-old lefty returned to less impressive results, with a 4.66 ERA in 48 1/3 innings this year. That being said, his 3.26 FIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA, indicating that there may be some bad luck baked into his below average (92 ERA+) run prevention numbers. Overall, Alexander sports a 3.70 ERA and 3.16 FIP in 72 career appearances with the Giants. A free agent at the end of the season, Alexander figures to be one of the more reliable left-handed relief options on the open market this offseason.

Alexander isn’t the only Giants arm dealing with injury woes of late, however, as right-hander Jakob Junis exited tonight’s game due to what the club has described as neck tightness, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado. After an uneven first season in San Francisco last year during which he posted a 4.42 ERA with a 3.65 FIP over 112 innings of work, Junis has settled into a versatile relief role where he mixes between long relief and single-inning appearances. In this role, he’s posted a 3.93 ERA across 84 2/3 innings with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.8%. Like Alexander, Junis figures to hit the open market this offseason, and could receive interest as both a starter and a reliever.

As discussed by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, injury situations aren’t the only issues plaguing the Giants this late in the season. Catcher Patrick Bailey, who has caught more games this season than ever before in his career, told Slusser that at this point in the season that he is “experiencing more fatigue than [he’s] ever felt before,” a situation that’s surely factoring into the 24-year-old rookie’s downturn in performance in recent weeks. Dating back to the middle of August, Bailey has slashed a meager .174/.245/.244 with a 34% strikeout rate in his last 94 trips to the plate. Slusser adds that Bailey’s typically strong defense has also taken a hit recently, as he’s committed three errors and allowed four passed balls in the month of September.

Looking ahead to 2024, the backup catcher position figures to be something of a question mark for the Giants, with Bailey having caught 82% of the club’s games since being called up back in May. Former top prospect Joey Bart and Rule 5 draft pick Blake Sabol both figure to be internal options available to San Francisco, though it would hardly be a surprise to see the club pursue a more established back-up option like Victor Caratini or Tom Murphy in free agency to help ease Bailey into the workload of a wire-to-wire big league season.