Arrieta, now 36 years old, retires after a 12-season MLB career. A fifth-round pick of the Orioles out of TCU in 2007, he made it to the majors midway through the 2010 campaign. He spent three-plus seasons in Baltimore, never really clicking despite getting a few opportunities to crack the starting rotation. Arrieta made 69 appearances in black and orange, pitching to a cumulative 5.46 ERA/4.72 FIP. His strikeout and walk numbers improved later in his time with the O’s, but the results never lined up and Baltimore traded him to the Cubs in early July 2013.

That deal — which saw Arrieta and reliever Pedro Strop head to the North Siders for starter Scott Feldman and backup catcher Steve Clevenger — proved one of the most consequential trades in recent MLB history. Arrieta had decent results down the stretch with the Cubs, but his peripherals didn’t suggest he was on the verge of a breakout.

That’s exactly what transpired, though. By 2014, Arrieta had emerged as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He tossed 156 2/3 innings of 2.53 ERA ball, earning a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. That was an unexpected age-28 breakout, but rather than showing any signs of regression, Arrieta took his game to another height the next season. In 2015, the right-hander tossed a personal-high 229 innings with an incredible 1.77 ERA. He led MLB with four complete games and three shutouts, allowing a league-low 5.9 hits per nine frames.

Arrieta had a very strong first half that year, posting a 2.66 ERA in 121 2/3 innings. Yet it’s the second half of that 2015 season for which he might best be remembered, as he orchestrated one of the most overpowering runs by any pitcher in MLB history. After that year’s All-Star break, Arrieta threw 107 1/3 frames and allowed just nine earned runs (0.75 ERA). Opposing hitters posted a laughable .148/.204/.205 line in just shy of 400 plate appearances during that stretch, as the Cubs won 97 games and earned a postseason berth.

During that year’s Wild Card game, Arrieta continued his run of absolute dominance, tossing an 11-strikeout shutout in that season’s Wild Card game against the Pirates. He wasn’t as excellent during starts in the NLDS or NLCS, but he had launched himself into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. Arrieta won that season’s Cy Young award, and he’d pick up a third consecutive top ten finish the following season.

In 2016, Arrieta worked to a 3.10 ERA in 197 1/3 frames. He again allowed a league-low 6.3 hits per nine, picking up his first All-Star selection in the process. Alongside Jon Lester and a career-best season from Kyle Hendricks, Arrieta played a key role in the Cubs team that snapped their 108-year title drought. Chicago won both of his starts during the seven-game triumph over the Indians, during which he tossed 11 1/3 innings of three-run ball.

Arrieta remained in Chicago for one more season. He never recaptured his otherworldly 2014-15 form, but he still offered mid-rotation production with a 3.53 ERA in 168 1/3 innings. That offseason, he signed a three-year, $75MM guarantee with the Phillies. Arrieta’s first season in Philadelphia was solid, as he allowed just fewer than four earned runs per nine in 31 starts.

The past three seasons proved a struggle, as Arrieta’s velocity had begun trending downwards from its mid-90s peak by 2017. He posted a 4.64 ERA or higher in each of his final trio of campaigns, including a 7.39 mark in 24 starts between the Cubs and Padres last season. Arrieta returned to the place where he’d had the most success last winter, but the Cubs released him in August. He struggled in four starts with the Friars, and San Diego let him go shortly before the regular season wrapped up.

Obviously, Arrieta’s career didn’t end the way he would’ve liked. Yet there’s no question he reached a height few players in the game’s recent history have hit. From 2014-16, only future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw bested Arrieta’s 2.42 ERA among qualified starters. He played a pivotal role on the most successful teams in the past century of Cubs baseball and leaves the game with a Cy Young and a World Series title. Over his 12-year run, he won 115 games, and struck out upwards of 1400 batters in 1612 1/3 innings.

Arrieta retires with a career 3.98 ERA, although that mark is inflated by the struggles he experienced at each end. For a three-to-four year period, he was among the top few pitchers on the planet. MLBTR congratulates him on his excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

It proved to be a very brief run in San Diego for Arrieta. Released by the Cubs in mid-August, the former Cy Young award winner hooked on with San Diego a few days later. The 35-year-old had struggled mightily in his return to Chicago, working 86 1/3 innings of 6.88 ERA ball with the Cubs. The Friars, thin on starting pitching depth and with a few key hurlers dealing with injury, gave Arrieta a few turns through their rotation in hopes he could find more success in a new environment.

That ultimately proved not to be the case, as Arrieta posted even worse results in his brief look as a Padre. He tossed 12 1/3 innings over four starts, interrupted by a brief injured list stint due to a hamstring strain. He was tagged for sixteen runs (fifteen earned) in that time, while his already lackluster strikeout and swinging strike rates dipped even further relative to his time with the Cubs.

It’s now been three seasons of subpar performance for Arrieta, who was one of the sport’s best handful of pitchers at his peak. The righty reeled off consecutive seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball from 2014-18, including a 2.53 in 2014 and a sterling 1.77 mark in his Cy Young winning 2015 campaign. That’s climbed successively from 4.64 to 5.08 to 7.39 over the past three years, though, as Arrieta has become one of the game’s least effective pitchers at missing bats while his velocity has fallen.

Arrieta will almost certainly reach free agency in the next few days, either via release or rejection of an outright assignment. In all likelihood, today’s designation will bring his 2021 campaign to a close. Given his significant recent struggles, it’s possible he’ll need to settle for a minor league deal to work his way back onto a big league roster this winter.

The injury woes that inspired the Padres to sign Arrieta have only intensified in the weeks since. They’re down to Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and the recently-signed Vince Velasquez as traditional rotation options, with Chris Paddack and Blake Snell currently on the 10-day injured list. It seems they’ll conduct a handful of bullpen games in the season’s final couple weeks as they try to claw back from a four-game deficit in the race for the National League’s final Wild Card spot.

Guerra hasn’t pitched all season on account of a UCL issue. A former infielder, the hard-throwing righty was converted to mound work in 2019. Over 22 MLB innings, he owns an 8.18 ERA with a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate but a solid 50% ground-ball percentage.

While Guerra hasn’t yet found much big league success, the Padres clearly remain intrigued by his arsenal. The 25-year-old averaged 98 MPH on his sinker last season, making it easy to envision him as a grounder specialist out of the bullpen. Because of his early career as a position player, Guerra has exhausted all three of his minor league option years. That leaves the Padres with no choice but to carry him on the active roster or risk losing him on waivers. They’ve evidently determined to keep him with the major league team for now, and he figures to see some action as part of the aforementioned bullpen-heavy pitcher usage the Padres will need to deploy down the stretch.

The Padres didn’t need to create a vacancy on the 40-man roster but Williams is out of minor league option years, meaning he had to either stick on the big league team or be exposed to waivers. San Diego’s 40-man total now sits at 39.

Williams himself just returned from the injured list Wednesday, when active rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players. Knee inflammation had kept the right-hander out since mid-April, and he didn’t get into a game upon being reinstated this month. Williams’ big league action this season consists of 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball over the first few weeks. That comes after he threw just one inning for the Friars in 2020 after being acquired from the Mariners last August for pitching prospect Matt Brash.

In addition to his time with Seattle and San Diego, Williams spent a few seasons with the Brewers. Over parts of five big league campaigns, the 30-year-old owns a 5.17 ERA with strikeout (24.3%) and walk (10.5%) rates not far off the league average for relievers. The Padres will now place Williams on waivers, where a bullpen-needy club could consider adding him for the final few weeks of the regular season.

Arrieta returns two weeks after suffering a left hamstring strain during his first start as a Padre. Between the Cubs and San Diego, the former Cy Young award winner has struggled to a 7.13 ERA across 89 2/3 innings.

Already reeling in the rotation due to injuries to Yu Darvish, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack, San Diego signed Arrieta this week after he was released by the Cubs. The veteran right-hander made his first start as a Padre on Wednesday at Coors Field. He allowed five runs over 3 1/3 innings against the Rockies before departing due to the hamstring issue that today landed him on the shelf.

With Arrieta also out, San Diego will again have to try and piece things together behind Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Ryan Weathers. Reiss Knehr looks like one potential option for the back of the rotation, and the Padres also have Daniel Camarena on the 40-man roster as a pitcher capable of working into the middle innings. Fortunately, Darvish threw a bullpen session this afternoon, his first since landing on the IL last weekend (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

Pomeranz’s transfer to the 60-day IL is nothing more than a procedural move. The southpaw is out for the season after it was determined he’s require surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon.

San Diego suddenly finds itself desperate for innings — a scenario few would’ve anticipated after an offseason in which the Friars acquired Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove to strengthen a rotation that already looked to have a fair bit of depth. However, Darvish was placed on the injured list yesterday owing to back issues, and the Padres are also currently without Chris Paddack (oblique strain), Dinelson Lamet (forearm inflammation, hip surgery) and Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery). Touted prospect MacKenzie Gore hasn’t pitched in a game since June 13, as he was sent back to the team’s Spring Training complex to work on mechanical issues not long after.

Arrieta will give the Padres a veteran option to soak up some innings, but the extent of his struggles with the Cubs underscore the dire nature of the need for arms in San Diego at the moment. While Arrieta got out to a nice start after signing a one-year, $6.5MM deal to return to the Cubs, his production cratered after a handful of solid outings to begin the season.

Arrieta pitched to a 2.57 ERA through his first five starts but has since been shellacked for 58 runs in 58 1/3 innings. He completed six innings just one time in those 15 outings and completed five frames in just six of them. And while a few poor outings can always skew a few months’ worth of numbers, that isn’t necessarily the case here; Arrieta allowed at least four runs in 10 of those 15 starts. This year’s 90.8 mph average fastball is the lowest of his career and represents a two mile-per-hour drop from last year’s levels.

Of course, Arrieta was once one of the game’s best arms. He followed up a strong first half in 2015 with a historically dominant second half, cruising to a National League Cy Young Award and a sixth-place finish in NL MVP voting. He went on to throw a shutout in his postseason debut in 2015. That was followed by All-Star campaign in 2016, which featured 197 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball, and Arrieta posted a 3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 postseason frames as the Cubs marched to a World Series victory. Broadly speaking, he was one of the primary drivers behind the Cubs’ transformation into a perennial contender during his initial run there.

That all feels like a distant memory after three lackluster years in Philadelphia, an elbow surgery, and this year’s unsuccessful Wrigley reunion. The Padres will hope a change of scenery can lead to some late-season lightning in a bottle, but the mounting number of rotation injuries has left their grip on the second NL Wild Card spot feeling more tenuous than ever. What was a six-game lead over the Reds as recently as July 27 has been whittled away to a 2.5-game lead over their closest competitors in Cincinnati.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the sides were close to a deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the Padres were among the teams with interest in Arrieta. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the sides had an agreement and that Arrieta would get the start on Wednesday. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Despite ongoing shoulder issues, Tatis has been one of the best players in baseball this year. He has an excellent slash line of .290/.373/.647 on the year, producing a wRC+ of 165. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, the only ones with a higher wRC+ are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Padres are moving him to the outfield in the hopes that he’ll see less defensive action and will therefore be less likely to re-aggravate the shoulder problems that have already seen him go on the IL three times this season. Having his bat back in the lineup will surely be a boost to a Padres team that has been sliding lately, but still maintains a 2 1/2 game lead over the Reds for the final National League wildcard spot, going into today’s action. Jake Cronenworth, who has been manning shortstop in the absence of Tatis, figures to remain there. Wil Myers, who has been the regular right fielder of late, might be the most at risk of losing playing time.

As for Darvish, he left his start a few days ago with lower back tightness and he will now miss at least one start while recuperating. It’s a serious blow to the Padres rotation, as Darvish is having yet another excellent season. Through 131 1/3 innings, he has an ERA of 3.70, with a strikeout rate of 29.9% and walk rate of 5.7%, both of which are much better than league average. Craig Stammen is starting today, in what figures to be a bullpen game.

The San Diego rotation is now down to Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Ryan Weathers for the time being. Reinforcements will surely be required, either internally or externally. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club is considering free agents such as Jake Arrieta, who was released by the Cubs three days ago.

It’s been a miserable season for Arrieta in his return to Chicago. The former Cy Young winner got out to a nice start, working to a 2.57 ERA through April 25, but he’s been tattooed for 58 runs in 58 1/3 innings since that time. Opponents have racked up 91 hits, including 19 home runs, during that stretch. Last night’s outing was particularly non-competitive; Arrieta yielded seven runs in the first inning and ultimately departed after four frames with eight Brewers runs on the board.

The Cubs signed Arrieta to a one-year, $6MM deal over the winter with the hope that the injury troubles which plagued him during his three years with the Phillies were behind him. He’s avoided any notable arm troubles, but Arrieta’s fastball is sitting at a career-low 90.8 mph on the year and he’s seen across-the-board declines in swinging-strike rate, chase rate, home-run rate and walk rate. This marks the sixth straight season that he’s seen his ERA increase from the prior season.

Arrieta is still owed the balance of that $6MM salary — about $1.71MM between now and season’s end. He’s a lock to clear release waivers and become a free agent, but any team that signs him thereafter would only owe him the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the year. That sum would then be subtracted from the balance owed to him by the Cubs.

As for Contreras, the knee troubles that are currently hobbling him are believed to be minor. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this morning that the move was “precautionary” in nature (Twitter link via the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan). He’s seemingly not expected to require a lengthy stay on the injured list.

Romine, who has logged just six games and nine place appearances this season due to a left wrist sprain, will presumably pick up the bulk of the catching work in place of Contreras. The veteran 32-year-old was the Yankees’ backup catcher from 2016-19 before signing with the Tigers as a free agent for the 2020 season. He’ll now get the opportunity to team up with his brother, Andrew, for the first time in the big leagues. The Cubs inked Andrew to a minor league pact at the end of Spring Training and recently selected him to the Major League roster.

Meisinger, 27, has a 5.70 career ERA, albeit in a tiny sample of 23 2/3 innings between the Orioles and the division-rival Cardinals. He’s spent the 2021 season thus far with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, pitching to a 4.25 ERA with a huge 34.4 percent strikeout rate but also a concerning 12.2 percent walk rate (in addition to three hit batters).

The 29-year-old Ryan, meanwhile, has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 13 1/3 innings this year. It’s the second straight season of struggles for Ryan, who posted similarly discouraging numbers in 15 2/3 frames with the 2020 Cubs.

That said, Ryan has been excellent in 25 innings of Triple-A ball this season, logging a 2.52 ERA with a 24-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s also not terribly far removed from a 2019 season that saw him toss 61 frames of 3.54 ERA ball as one of the Cubs’ most heavily used relievers.

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, Ryan will be placed on either outright or release waivers in the coming days and be made available to all 29 other clubs. He’s playing on an $800K salary, so he’ll cost a bit more than the league minimum, but Ryan has a bit of track record and can be optioned for the remainder of the season, so he’d be a solid enough depth pickup for a team in need of some southpaws in the bullpen.

Manager David Ross told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link) and other reporters that Marisnick will undergo further tests tomorrow to determine the extent of the strain.  Hamstring problems were a recurring issue for Marisnick last season when he played for the Mets, as separate injuries to both hamstrings led to two separate trips to the injured list, and he ended up playing only 16 games in 2020.

Signed to a one-year free agent deal worth $1.5MM in guaranteed money, Marisnick was ticketed for a fourth outfielder role for Chicago.  With Ian Happ injured, however, Marisnick has seen more regular duty in center field, and delivered in something of an unexpected way.  Known for his defense more than his hitting over nine MLB seasons, Marisnick’s defense hasn’t been great (-1 Defensive Run Saved, -35.7 UZR/150) over 118 innings in center field, but he is hitting .264/.350/.623 over 60 plate appearances.

If Marisnick’s absence wasn’t enough, Jason Heyward was also removed from the game for a pinch-hitter in the ninth inning due to what Ross described as a problem with his right hand.  Heyward is also undergoing examination from team trainers.  It’s been a tough start to the season for the veteran outfielder, as Heyward is hitting just .173/.239/.317 over his first 113 PA.

The Cubs don’t play on Monday and they also have an off-day on Thursday, so it’s possible Heyward and Marisnick might have enough time to recuperate without a trip to the IL.  That being said, being down two outfielders would leave Chicago pretty short-handed with Happ and Nico Hoerner also sidelined, and it would leave Bryant as the team’s top center field option.  Cameron Maybin, Ian Miller, and Rafael Ortega are all available at Triple-A, though none are on the Cubs’ 40-man roster.

In better injury news for the Cubs, Jake Arrieta is tentatively scheduled to return from the injured list for a start against the Tigers on Friday.  In a pregame chat with reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago), Ross said that Arrieta felt good after a bullpen session yesterday, and would throw another bullpen on Tuesday or Wednesday.  A right thumb abrasion sent Arrieta to the 10-day IL on May 4, so he would miss only the minimum 10 days if he was activated on Friday.  Arrieta has a 4.31 ERA/4.63 SIERA and a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate over 31 1/3 innings for Chicago this season.

Arrieta, 35, has had a decent rebound effort with the Cubs thus far, making six starts and logging a 4.31 ERA through 31 1/3 frames out of the rotation. He signed a one-year, $6.5MM deal to return to the team with which he won a Cy Young Award in 2015 and a World Series ring in 2016. He’d been slated to take the mound tomorrow, but it appears the cut on his pitching thumb hasn’t healed to the point where he’s able to properly throw all of his offerings. Given the nature of the injury, it seems likely to be a short-term stay on the IL.

The 23-year-old is out to a brilliant start in 2021, slashing .389/.500/.556 with six doubles, three steals and eight walks against seven strikeouts through 44 trips to the plate. Hoerner collided with center fielder Ian Happ when chasing down a shallow fly-ball during Sunday’s game against the Reds, though it’s not clear if that play is the source of his current injury. Happ remains day-to-day after that incident, with manager David Ross telling reporters he’s been diagnosed with a rib contusion after getting kicked “pretty hard” by Hoerner in the process. Hoerner tells reporters he expects to be back from the IL when he’s first eligible (Twitter link via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago).

Winkler, meanwhile, has held opponents to just one run on five hits in 10 1/3 innings. It’s a strong start in terms of bottom-line results, but the fact that he’s walked seven batters, plunked another and snapped off a wild pitch suggest that he’ll need to improve his control if he’s to maintain anything close to that output. To his credit, Winkler has also punched out a dozen of the 44 hitters he’s faced, but this marks a second straight year of questionable command in the Cubs’ bullpen for the 31-year-old Illinois native.

Ryan leads Cubs relievers in innings pitched over the past few seasons and will give Ross another lefty to work with for the time being. Thompson, who made his MLB debut when he tossed an inning earlier this year, is slated to start the second game of today’s twin bill against the Dodgers. He’s a 26-year-old back-of-the-rotation/swingman candidate who ranks 14th among Cubs farmhands at MLB.com, 23rd at FanGraphs and 28th at Baseball America. The Cubs’ rotation doesn’t have room for him when it’s at full strength, but he’ll likely be called upon for multiple spot starts in situations just as this throughout the year, when injuries pop up among the team’s top few starters.

Vargas has appeared in eight games with the Cubs dating back to a 2020 waiver claim from the Twins. He’s spent the bulk of his career with the D-backs, primarily in a utility role, and is a lifetime .252/.280/.388 hitter in 300 trips to the plate as a big leaguer. He’ll factor into the mix at second base and off the bench while Hoerner is sidelined.

Interestingly, Realmuto was not regarded as a blue-chip minor leaguer at the time, as he didn’t appear on top-100 prospect lists from either MLB.com or Baseball America until after the 2014 season.  After middling numbers in his first four pro seasons, Realmuto emerged in 2014 while playing for Miami’s Double-A affiliate and even bypassed Triple-A that year to make an 11-game MLB cameo on the Marlins’ active roster.  Still, the Marlins obviously believed in Realmuto’s potential, and the trade negotiations fizzled out.

As we ponder the alternate reality where the Arrieta-for-Realmuto trade went down, here’s more from the National League…

• Pirates starter Steven Brault left Friday’s outing after only two innings due to tightness in his left arm, and is day to day with the injury.  The team’s statement specified that Brault’s issue was with his latissimus muscle, rather than any forearm or elbow tightness.  Still, any sort of injury concern isn’t welcome news for Brault or the Pirates, as Brault is projected for one of the top spots in Pittsburgh’s rotation.  The southpaw had a 3.38 ERA/5.07 SIERA over 42 2/3 innings for the Bucs last season, allowing only two home runs and doing a good job of limiting hard contact, though Brault was aided by a .243 BABIP and his 21.3K% was below average.
• With Dellin Betances struggling in Spring Training, could the Mets decide to part ways with the reliever entirely?  SNY’s Andy Martino thinks it may be a possibility, if the Mets see Betances as something of “a sunk cost” who won’t help their efforts to contend.  One would imagine the Mets would try to shop Betances in trades before considering a release, though it isn’t as if Betances’ trade value is high following a rough first season in Queens.  The righty posted a 7.71 ERA over 11 2/3 innings in 2020, recorded more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) and spent a month on the IL due to a lat injury.  Unsurprisingly, Betances exercised his $6MM player option to remain with the Mets rather than test free agency in the wake of his down year.  A four-time All-Star in his heyday with the Yankees, Betances missed almost all of the 2019 season due to shoulder problems and then a partial Achilles tear.

Arrieta, who struggled at the beginning of his career as an Oriole, joined the Cubs alongside Pedro Strop in a franchise-altering trade in 2013 and was an enormous success with the team through 2017. He earned a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series title (2016) as a Cub, and he also recorded a sterling 2.73 ERA/3.49 SIERA across 803 regular-season innings with the team.

The Cubs were in touch with Arrieta throughout his free agency, but they moved in a different direction, signing right-hander Yu Darvish to a six-year contract while Arrieta was still looking for a new team. Arrieta’s return to the Cubs, somewhat coincidentally, comes as the team is looking to make up some of the innings lost when dumping the remainder of Darvish’s salary in a trade with the Padres.

The Phillies may not have been expecting another Cy Young out of Arrieta when they signed him to a three-year, $75MM deal with a multi-season option, but they surely hoped to be getting an above-average starter. That, of course, did not prove to be the case.

While Arrieta had a respectable debut campaign with the Phils, his 2019 and 2020 seasons were marred by injuries, resulting in his worst performance since breaking out with the Cubs in the first place. Overall, Arrieta threw 352 2/3 innings with the Phillies in that three-year term, logging a disappointing 4.36 ERA/4.57 SIERA that was more indicative of a back-of-the-rotation arm than a difference-maker at the top of the staff.

Because of his mediocre performance and health issues in Philadelphia, Arrieta had no chance to rake in another high-paying contract this offseason. But the soon-to-be 35-year-old should earn plenty of starts now that he is back with the Cubs, who have just two proven options ahead of him in Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Adbert Alzolay look like the most realistic candidates to pitch out of the Cubs’ rotation, and they’ll probably all get their share of innings. Like most teams, the Cubs will likely cycle through a wide array of starting pitching options as they look to ease their staff’s transition from last year’s shortened 60-game slate back to a full 162-game workload.

Arrieta becomes the latest modestly priced free-agent addition of a 2020-21 offseason that has seen the Cubs add several new players without concretely improving. Ownership clearly wanted to scale back the payroll, hence the trades of Darvish and Victor Caratini and the non-tenders of Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora. The front office, under newly promoted president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, has signed Arrieta, Joc Pederson, Andrew Chafin, Williams and Jake Marisnick since a report that owner Tom Ricketts gave the green light for a “slight” payroll increase.

In addition to that group, the Cubs also picked up Davies in return for Darvish. They’ve certainly created the possibility that this wider base of talent could outperform the players they’re more or less replacing, and if it works out that way, Hoyer & Co. will receive plenty of praise for threading the needle between creating future flexibility and fielding a winning product.

That said, it’s also a risk-laden group with several players in need of bounceback campaigns. The Cubs aren’t clearly better than they were with Darvish, Schwarber, Caratini and a higher payroll and are arguably quite a bit worse. If this group struggles, the 2020-21 offseason will be widely viewed as a missed opportunity, given that only one team (the Cardinals) made any clear upgrades in what should’ve been a wide-open race for the division title.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the two sides were close to a deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added that it’d be a one-year term. Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a deal was in place, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided financial details (Twitter links).

• Free agent reliever David Robertson threw for a handful of teams yesterday, but the price on his long-term future remains unclear. His old pals from New York were in attendance, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter), but the Yankees are far from the only team who might have interest. Despite the dumb-luck turn of his Philly tenure, Robertson is an intriguing buy-low candidate. Injuries limited the right-hander to seven appearances over the past two seasons, but in the ten years prior, Robertson should be proud of a 2.67 ERA/2.77 FIP while striking out an excellent-for-the-era 32.6 percent of hitters and walking a near-average 9.5 percent of challengers. The Yankees probably remember better than most just how good Robertson was in his prime. Approaching his age-36 season, Robertson is decidedly on the downslope of his career – but he has a long way to fall before losing his utility.
• Aaron Sanchez also headed back to the hill to throw for scouts on Saturday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets were among those present, as they continue to keep their hand in the starting pitching market. Sanchez is on record as wanting a spot in the rotation, which could limit his potential landing spots. It now seems like ages ago that Sanchez led the American League with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts for the Blue Jays in 2016. Since that All-Star campaign, Sanchez has compiled a 5.29 ERA/5.12 FIP across 55 starts totaling 272 1/3 innings with a worm-killing 47.8 percent groundball rate. An 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate are less than inspiring figures, however.

Both Arrieta and Paxton are repped by the Boras Corporation, so talks regarding the team’s interest in the pair are largely streamlined. Arrieta and Paxton aren’t free agents at ideal times, but they do represent a couple of the most established arms available on a shrinking market that lost No. 1 option Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers last week. The Mets were finalists for Bauer, and though they’re not going to acquire anyone of his caliber at this stage (barring an unexpected blockbuster trade), they remain on the hunt for starting help.

The Mets’ rotation has undergone a few noteworthy changes already since the offseason started. They brought back Marcus Stroman for the $18.9MM qualifying offer after he sat out all of last year over health concerns. The club also acquired Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland in the Francisco Liriano trade, while it dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays and brought in a potential replacement in Joey Lucchesi as part of a three-way swap with the Padres and Pirates.

Stroman, Carrasco, Lucchesi and David Peterson currently look like the favorites to back superstar Jacob deGrom in New York’s rotation when the season opens. If signed, though, Arrieta or Paxton would appear to be in line for a back-end spot. Arrieta’s a former NL Cy Young winner, though the soon-to-be 35-year-old posted a rough 5.08 ERA/4.83 SIERA combination in 44 1/3 innings with the division-rival Phillies last year.

Paxton has frequently dealt with injury issues during what has otherwise been a solid career, and he pitched just 20 1/3 frames as a Yankee in 2020 because of back and arm troubles. When the 32-year-old did take the mound, he limped to a 6.64 ERA and saw his average fastball drop from 95 mph-plus to a little over 92, though Paxton did log a respectable 3.88 SIERA. He also continued to generate strikeouts at a high clip, as his 28.9 percent K rate checked in well above the league average of 23.4.

Odorizzi spent the previous three seasons with the Twins and combined for a 4.11 ERA/4.34 SIERA in 337 innings. In his best season, 2019, Odorizzi earned an All-Star nod and pitched to a 3.51 ERA/4.14 SIERA with a a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate over 159 frames. The Twins then handed Odorizzi a $17.8MM qualifying offer, and he accepted it instead of trying his luck in free agency.

Minnesota was no doubt expecting another quality showing from Odorizzi when it gave him the QO, but it wasn’t to be in 2020. Injuries, including to his back, chest and right middle finger, limited him to 13 2/3 innings of 10-run ball. Odorizzi doesn’t seem to be a free agent at the ideal time, then, but considering his positive track record with the Royals, Rays and Twins, he could still land a solid multiyear payday this offseason. Other than the Twins, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists the Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and perhaps the Mets as teams vying for the soon-to-be 31-year-old.

Either Odorizzi or Arrieta would fill out a Twins rotation that currently has Happ, Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak comprising its top five. Of course, unlike Odorizzi, Arrieta probably isn’t in line for better than a one-year contract. While Arrieta is a former NL Cy Young winner (2015) with the Cubs, he’s now on the market after a pair of disappointing seasons with the Phillies. Arrieta, 35 in March, put up his worst ERA since 2012 last year (5.08) in 44 1/3 innings. He also logged a meager 16.8 percent strikeout percentage – one of the worst of his career – though he did record an above-average walk rate of 8.4 percent and a 51.8 percent groundball rate.

With Steven Matz recently dealt to the Blue Jays, the Mets’ projected starting four looks like Jacob deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, and David Peterson.  Lucchesi probably has the inside line on the fifth starter job for now, but the Mets aren’t short on other depth options in the upper minors, and Foltynewicz would provide another experienced candidate to either compete for a rotation spot or perhaps fit into the bullpen.  Since Noah Syndergaard is expected to make a midseason return from Tommy John rehab, whomever fills the fifth starter role is ultimately keeping the seat warm for Syndergaard — barring the shake-up of a Bauer signing, that is.

More on some other free agent news…

• Aside from the Mets, Foltynewicz also drew interest from the Rays, White Sox, and Twins, Heyman writes.  An All-Star with the Braves in 2018, Foltynewicz took a step back in 2019 and then pitched in only one game in 2020, resulting in his opting for free agency after being outrighted during the season.  Given these recent struggles, “Folty” would very likely have to pitch his way into a rotation spot during Spring Training, yet it is easy to see why teams would have interest in the right-hander as a change of scenery candidate.  The White Sox just re-signed Carlos Rodon, though considering Rodon has also had a tough time over the last two seasons, his presence wouldn’t necessarily rule out a potential deal between Foltynewicz and the Sox.
• The Cubs had interest in Jake Arrieta but a signing is “doubtful,” ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets, since the Cubs want a less-expensive option.  Arrieta’s asking price can’t be all that high considering his middling results over the last two seasons, but perhaps the $2.5MM (with deferred money involved) the Cubs gave Williams is a better example of what the team is willing to spend.
• Trevor Rosenthal is the top reliever remaining on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and since the Twins are known to be looking for bullpen help, could the two sides link up?  The Athletic’s Dan Hayes isn’t very optimistic, as Rosenthal’s asking price looks to be too high for Minnesota’s liking.  The more money the Twins can save on relief pitching, the more they can then devote to a starting pitcher, but Hayes does think “they need relief certainty more than rotation certainty” at this point due to the rotation depth already on hand.