Skenes, now 22, has made a quick rise to being one of the top pitchers in the sport. As of a year and a half ago, he was still pitching for Louisiana State University. The Pirates selected him with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, with many viewing him as about as close to MLB-ready as a draft pick could be.

The Bucs let him get his feet wet as a professional, putting him into five minor league games late in 2023, but never letting him throw more than two innings in any of those. There was some speculation that he could crack the Opening Day roster in 2024 but the Pirates decided to build him up slowly. He was started in Triple-A but with his outings mostly kept around three or four innings.

Despite the kid gloves, Skenes proved it was time to break free, posting a 0.99 earned run average in those minor league outings. That got him promoted to the majors in May, less than a year after being drafted.

His relatively young age and lack of professional experience were easily overwhelmed by his incredible talent. Flashing a triple-digit fastball, a devastating “splinker” and several other pitches in his arsenal, Skenes went on to toss 133 innings over 23 big league starts. In that time, he had a 1.96 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 51.3% ground ball rate. He produced 4.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, placing him tenth among all pitchers in the majors this year, despite tossing fewer innings than everyone ahead of him.

The timing of his call-up and this victory are both noteworthy. The collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players features measures designed to encourage top prospects being promoted, the prospect promotion incentive, and also to disincentivize service time manipulation. If a player is on certain top 100 prospect lists and is promoted early enough in the season to earn a full service year, that player can earn his club a bonus draft pick depending on awards voting. On the flip side, if such a player is not promoted early enough to get a full year but managed to finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting regardless, that player earns himself a full year of service retroactively.

Had Skenes been promoted earlier in the year, this award would have netted the Bucs an extra draft pick. But since he was held down into May, they were not eligible to receive that pick. Skenes, on the other hand, will now have a full year of service time. That is significant for him as he is now slated to reach free agency after the 2029 season, his age-27 campaign. Under previous collective bargaining agreements, his free agency would have been one year further into the future.

Merrill was eligible to net the Padres a PPI bonus pick and likely would have done so in any other year. He just had the misfortune of competing against Skenes in the voting. Per the BBWAA, each of the 30 votes had Skenes and Merrill in the top two, 23 of them putting Skenes first and seven of them going for Merrill.

The fact that it was even close indicates how impressive Merrill was this year. A shortstop prospect with no Triple-A experience, Merrill moved to center field just this year to help the Padres fill a vacancy at that spot and hit the ground running. He got into 156 games for the Friars, hitting 24 home runs, stealing 16 bases, slashing .292/.326/.500 and getting strong grades for his glovework.

There was a case that Merrill deserved the award more than Skenes since his performance was over a full season, and clearly a handful of voters did lean that way, but ultimately not enough to get Merrill over the line. Despite the incredibly impressive performance, he comes up just shy of getting the trophy while the Padres come up just shy of getting a bonus draft pick.

The third place votes were split between just two players, as Chourio got 26 of them and Shota Imanaga of the Cubs got the other four. Chourio hit 21 home runs and stole 22 bases, slashing .275/.327/.464 while providing solid outfield defense. Imanaga tossed 173 1/3 innings over 29 starts for the Cubs with a 2.91 ERA. In many other years, those two players could have won the award, but they were instead relegated to nabbing a few third-place votes due to the stunning seasons of Skenes and Merrill. Players like Masyn Winn and Joey Ortiz also had excellent seasons but couldn’t even get any votes due to how strong the competition was in the National League this year.

Though Merrill was the 27th overall pick of the 2021 draft, his prospect stock didn’t really start to take off until he started to post big numbers for the Padres’ rookie league and A-ball affiliates during the 2022 season.  In fact, injuries limited Merrill to only 25 games in 2022 at the time of the Soto trade, so the Nationals weren’t working off a lot of scouting information when they checked into Merrill’s possible availability.  Though the Friars gave up a lot to bring Soto to San Diego, it looks like they made a canny move in keeping Merrill, as his tremendous rookie season helped lead the Padres to the NLDS this season.  Merrill hit .292/.326/.500 with 24 home runs over 593 plate appearances, and (even more remarkably) played strong defense as San Diego’s everyday center fielder despite never before playing center during his pro career.

Some other items from around baseball…

• Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park will remain a natural-grass stadium when the Athletics begin play next season, a league spokesperson told the media (including The Athletic’s Evan Drellich).  Since the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate will continue sharing the ballpark with the A’s, the initial idea was to install an artificial surface for 2025 and beyond, as a grass field will take quite a bit of wear-and-tear from two full schedules’ worth of games.  However, players still preferred even a beaten-up grass surface to turf, as playing on an artificial surface outdoors in California would’ve routinely raised on-field temperatures to well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, even for some night games.  “In light of the players’ clear preference for natural grass, and after weighing with the MLBPA the potential risks and benefits of maintaining natural grass versus replacing the playing surface with synthetic turf, all the parties are aligned in moving forward with a natural grass field for Opening Day 2025,” the spokesperson said.
• In other stadium news, the Rays’ immediate landing spot isn’t yet clear as the club continues to assess how badly Tropicana Field was damaged by Hurricane Milton.  Amidst speculation that the Rays could at least open the 2025 season in any number of different cities, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred made it clear in an interview on the Varsity podcast that the league’s preference is to keep the Rays in the Tampa/St. Pete area.  “The easiest thing is always to stay in the market where the clubs are anchored, if we can manage it,” Manfred said, in terms of Tropicana Field, “we’re hopeful…the repairs can be done in a way that allows them to resume playing.”  That said, Manfred is aware of the “complication” of how the city could balk at a large repair bill for a stadium that will soon be abandoned entirely, as the Rays’ new ballpark is slated to be ready for Opening Day 2028.  (Hat tip to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.)

San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller addressed the position as part of a conference call with reporters on Monday (links via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Preller said the Padres “would love to bring (Kim) back” but acknowledged the uncertain timeline on his injury.

The Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee wrote a few weeks ago that Kim was aiming for a return in April or May. Preller left the situation more open-ended. The executive noted that Kim isn’t slated to begin a throwing program until close to the start of the season. As for a return to game action, Preller loosely floated “May, June, July” as viable outcomes.

It’s clearly too early in the rehab process for the Padres to narrow down a specific target. That uncertainty should all but close the book on the chance of San Diego issuing Kim a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old infielder would probably accept a $21.05MM salary, which is too much for the Padres to risk with Kim looking very likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

Preller and his staff also face notable free agent losses in the bullpen (Tanner Scott), left field (Jurickson Profar) and behind the plate (Kyle Higashioka). The relief group should be strong enough to weather Scott’s departure, but the Padres will need to address a few spots in the lineup while also finding a replacement for the injured Joe Musgrove in the rotation. That could make it difficult to retain Kim.

Even if the Padres were to bring him back, they’d need a short-term replacement while he completes his rehab. If he walks, they’ll need a permanent answer. Bogaerts moved back from second base for the stretch run. The Padres seem to prefer him at the keystone, though they might not have any better options at shortstop.

Machado and Cronenworth haven’t played there in years. Nor has Tatis, who has been a full-time right fielder since returning from the injuries and suspension that wiped out his 2022 season. Merrill developed as a shortstop prospect before learning center field on the fly. The 21-year-old immediately became one of the sport’s top all-around center fielders.

Preller didn’t seem keen on the idea of moving Tatis or Merrill back to the infield. “They’d probably love that possibility. They always joke around — ’Whatever’s needed,’” the baseball ops president said. “The great part of those guys is they’re talented athletes, they can play different spots. … But Tati winning the Platinum [Glove] two years ago, and Jackson doing a tremendous job in center field this year, we know that they’re really good at what they do in the outfield.”

There hasn’t been much serious discussion about Tatis moving back to shortstop. It’s a plausible scenario for Merrill, who only moved off shortstop in deference to Kim and seems as if he can comfortably adjust to whatever position the Padres ask of him. Yet as Preller noted, it’s tempting to leave Merrill in center field with how well he played this year. San Diego doesn’t have an obvious in-house candidate to take over in center if Merrill were to come back onto the infield. They’d probably need to acquire a center fielder and the free agent market at the position is extremely thin. It’s not much deeper at shortstop, where only Willy Adames and Kim, if healthy, profile as regulars.

Before that sensational season came together, however, it seems the Padres were already hoping to lock in the youngster’s services for the long haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier today revealed that San Diego brass discussed the possibility of an extension with Merrill last offseason, before the youngster had even made his MLB debut. The sides, of course, did not wind up coming together on a deal. That didn’t stop the Padres from installing Merrill in center field to kick off the season, however, and Merrill rewarded his club’s confidence in him with a season that saw him appear in 156 games while slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 attempts, and a 130 wRC+.

Merrill’s debut season, during which he was just 21 years old, was the sort of campaign that inspires confidence in a young players ability to produce at the big league level. After all, Merrill showed off an impressive and varied profile that should help him continue to impact the Padres in all sorts of ways going forward. The youngster not only flashed impressive power with a .208 ISO that was second to only Aaron Judge among qualified center fielders this year, but he also struck out at an excellent 17% clip that was second to only Cody Bellinger by that same metric. And while his defense didn’t receive the universal praise lauded on players like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Average at the position put him in the 97th percentile among big leaguers and made him the seventh most valuable defensive center fielder in the sport by the metric.

That combination of power, contact, and defense at a valuable up-the-middle position figures to leave Merrill as a wildly attractive extension candidate, particularly given that he’s currently scheduled to reach free agency after his age-26 campaign. With that being said, the price of extending a youngster of Merrill’s talent is sure to have gone up for the Padres relative to last winter now that he’s proven he can handle big league pitching. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how lucrative even one dominant season in the big leagues can be, as both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions in the final months of their respective Rookie of the Year campaigns.

While the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes could complicate Merrill’s own pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the middle of Acuna’s 4.4 figure and Rodriguez’s 5.8, though it’s worth noting that Acuna was a year younger than either Rodriguez or Merrill during his rookie season. Given his similarity to those youngsters, it seems reasonable to expect that Merrill would garner a guarantee well above the $100MM Acuna landed even if Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM guarantee is not exactly the simplest point of comparison.

For San Diego’s part, they’ve certainly shown a willingness to spend heavily on extensions for young players in the past. The most obvious example of this is the $340MM deal the club made with Fernando Tatis Jr. prior to his third season with the club, though Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year extension signed just before the start of the 2023 season is another noteworthy example of the club committing to a long-term extension for a player with several years of team control remaining. Of course, both of those deals came together under the ownership of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres began to scale back their payroll last year following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the role of interim control person.

Extending Merrill could also have a significant impact on the club’s luxury tax payroll going forward. Since the luxury tax is calculated based on average annual value, back-loaded extensions such as the one signed by Tatis early in his career or a hypothetical Merrill extension often have a far more significant impact on a club’s luxury tax positioning than they do on the club’s actual payroll in the early years of the deal. That could prove to be an obstacle for the Padres, who per RosterResource currently have a guaranteed payroll of just over $231MM for 2025 before factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for players like Luis Arraez and Michael King.

San Diego placed a trio of players on the injured list. Infielder Tucupita Marcano landed on the 10-day IL. He tore his ACL last August and is nowhere near ready. Pitchers Luis Patiño and Glenn Otto each went on the 15-day injured list. Otto has a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder; Patiño is battling elbow inflammation. San Diego also optioned reliever Woo-Suk Go to Triple-A El Paso. He won’t be on the roster for the team’s series in his home country after allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings this spring.

Merrill, 20, will open the year as San Diego’s starting center fielder. The top prospect earned that assignment with a .351/.400/.595 showing in 13 Spring Training contests. Merrill hit .277/.326/.444 with 15 homers in 511 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A a season ago. That’s impressive production given his youth, and Merrill was regarded as one of the better pure hitters in the minors.

There’s nevertheless plenty of risk with the move. Merrill didn’t log a single inning in center field in his minor league career and has yet to play above Double-A. San Diego hasn’t been afraid of aggressively promoting its top minor league talents in recent years. Merrill should slot between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar in the Opening Day lineup. San Diego is still looking into the possibility of a left field upgrade, as they were reportedly in contact with Tommy Pham over the weekend.

Wade, 29, gets back to the majors for what’ll be the eighth straight season. The lefty-hitting utilityman has primarily worked off the bench over his career with the Yankees, Angels and A’s. He appeared in 26 games with Oakland last season, hitting .255/.309/.314. Wade has a middling .217/.293/.300 batting line in just over 700 major league plate appearances.

He earned a season-opening roster spot with an impressive showing this spring. Wade hit .294/.351/.471 over 14 exhibition contests. The Padres aren’t counting on him to make much of an impact offensively, but he provides a speed and defense element off the bench. Wade can play virtually anywhere aside from catcher. He’ll offer a complement to Pauley at third base and Merrill in center field late in games. Wade is out of options, so now that he secured a 40-man spot, the Padres would need to expose him to waivers if they wanted to take him off the major league roster.

Rule 5 pick Stephen Kolek nabbed a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. He should soon get an opportunity to make his major league debut, perhaps against the team that drafted him. Kolek was an 11th-round pick of the Dodgers in 2018. L.A. dealt him to the Mariners for cash early in the 2021 campaign. Kolek turned in a 3.76 ERA over 69 1/3 innings of relief between the top two minor league levels last season. He tossed 5 2/3 scoreless frames this spring, albeit with four walks.

Merrill, 21 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport. The youngster is something of a surprising choice for the role, at least on paper. He’s not yet played a game above Double-A in his big league career, having slashed a solid but unspectacular .277/.326/.444 in 114 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Perhaps even more importantly, Merrill had never appeared in center field in a professional game until camp opened last month. His professional outfield experience to that point consisted of 45 innings of work in left field that season. Prior to that, his professional work had come almost exclusively at shortstop, though he also made brief cameos at both first and second base.

With all that being said, the club’s decision to go with Merrill in center field on Opening Day is certainly a defensible one. Prospect evaluators around the game are unanimous in their belief in Merrill’s talent, with Baseball America lauding him as a future middle-of-the-order threat who figures to have the power for 30 homers a year while Fangraphs describes him as having “one of the prettiest swings in the minors” with excellent contact abilities. Furthermore, while his lack of upper-level reps at the plate and professional time in center field will certainly raise some eyebrows, Merrill has clearly done everything he can to prove himself ready for a big league opportunity this spring. In 40 plate appearances across 13 games during camp, Merrill slashed an excellent .351/.400/.595 while playing solid defense in center.

Of course, the decision to roster Merrill as the club’s Opening Day center fielder is also the results of a host of other decisions outside of Merrill’s control. Chief among them is the club choosing to part ways with superstar Juan Soto alongside Trent Grisham in a trade with the Yankees that removed two of the club’s three Opening Day starters in the outfield last year from the roster back in December. Since then, the club has been tied to external outfield options including Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham. The likes of Taylor and Kiermaier have since signed elsewhere, however, and while there may be some momentum toward a deal with Pham, the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t appeared in center field on a regular basis since 2018, with just 15 starts up the middle in the years since then.

That lack of clear options for the center field job led the Padres to look toward their internal, non-roster pieces for their next center fielder. Fellow prospect Jakob Marsee as well as veterans such as Oscar Mercado and Tim Locastro all joined Merrill as potential solutions in center when camp began last month, though of that group only Mercado was able to keep up with Merrill’s blistering performance this spring and the club recently tipped their hand regarding their decision by including only Merrill, corner bats Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar, and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. as outfielders on their 31-man travel roster for the Seoul Series.

It’s possible Merrill won’t be the only rookie with minimal upper-minors experience on the club’s Opening Day lineup, as the club also included Graham Pauley on their travel roster for the coming series. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin indicated last week that Pauley was likely in position to fill in for veteran third baseman Manny Machado at the hot corner to open the season, as Machado will begin the season at DH while he recovers from elbow surgery, which he underwent back in October. Pauley, 23, was a 13th-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft and enjoyed a breakout season last year as he slashed a whopping .308/.393/.539 in 127 games split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels.

“Jackson Merrill is going to Korea,” Shildt told reporters, in reference to San Diego’s season-opening series in Seoul against the Dodgers next week (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). “He’s earned his way on the plane. He’s earned what’s coming after the plane.”

That’s not quite a declaration that the Padres are calling him up. San Diego and Los Angeles are allowed to bring 31 players with them to Seoul, although only 26 will be on the active roster for games. That theoretically leaves open the possibility of Merrill traveling with the team and not being activated for the series. Yet Shildt’s not particularly subtle nod to “what’s coming after” the flight is all but a formal announcement that he will break camp. As Cassavell notes, the Padres would likely have had Merrill continue working in minor league camp this week if they weren’t planning to call him up.

A first-round pick out of a Maryland high school in 2021, Merrill is on track to be San Diego’s Opening Day center fielder. That’s a position he has never played in a minor league game. He made five starts in left field with Double-A San Antonio a year ago. Other than that, his entire professional experience had come on the infield. With San Diego having far more infield depth than outfielders, Merrill spent the offseason working as an outfielder. He has played on the grass in Spring Training and evidently impressed the organization enough defensively.

Merrill has limited experience facing upper level pitching. He has never played in Triple-A and only had 46 games of Double-A experience. Merrill put up a solid .273/.348/.444 line in 211 plate appearances in a pitcher-friendly setting at that level. He has impressed in Spring Training, punctuating a recent hot streak with an opposite-field homer off Zac Gallen this afternoon. Merrill is now up to a .343/.395/.600 slash with three walks and strikeouts apiece in exhibition play.

The Padres entered camp with only three outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azocar and Jurickson Profar. San Diego would need to select Merrill’s contract but can do so without a corresponding move, as they only have 37 players on the 40-man roster.

Lin first reported the Padres had given some consideration to Pham at the beginning of the month. While San Diego has since added Jurickson Profar on a $1MM pact, that’s not a huge impediment to bringing in another outfielder. San Diego still has only three outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azócar and Profar.

Regardless of whether they add anyone else, they’re sorting through a few non-roster players battling in camp. None is more exciting than 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is working out the top shortstop prospect in the outfield this spring. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote this afternoon that Merrill seems increasingly likely to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

The Padres wouldn’t call Merrill up if they weren’t going to give him everyday run. He’d be making the jump past Triple-A. The former first-round pick split last year between High-A and Double-A. Merrill put up a .273/.338/.444 line in 211 plate appearances with Double-A San Antonio. That’s solid work in the pitcher-friendly Texas League, although it doesn’t guarantee he’ll find success against big league pitching right away.

Depending on potential acquisitions, the Padres could offer Merrill regular run in either left or center field. Pham would be limited to left field. Landing him would kick Profar to the bench and provide an upgrade to the lineup. Pham is coming off a .256/.328/.446 slash with 16 homers and 22 steals through 481 plate appearances between the Mets and Diamondbacks. He’s a known quantity for the front office after playing in San Diego from 2020-21.

Adding a corner outfielder would leave Merrill competing with Azócar and perhaps Jakob Marsee for the center field job. Azócar is a good runner and defensive specialist who has hit .249/.292/.341 in 153 big league games. Marsee, 22, only has 16 games above High-A. He posted excellent numbers at High-A Fort Wayne a year ago, running a .273/.413/.425 line with 41 steals and more walks than strikeouts. Prospect evaluators generally rank him as a solid but not elite minor league talent. He’s widely projected as a fourth outfielder based on strong strike zone awareness with limited power.

Each of Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson, Cal Mitchell and Tim Locastro are in camp on minor league deals. None of them is likely to step into an everyday role, but there should be room for at least one to secure a bench spot. Michael A. Taylor is the only potential regular center fielder left on the free agent market. Pham, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario are the top corner options. There’s still some activity on the trade front, as this week’s deal sending Manuel Margot to Minnesota demonstrates. While the Padres have been loosely connected to Jarren Duran and Sal Frelick in trade rumors, there’s no indication they made any headway in those discussions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517

Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.

To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454

Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.

Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.

Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471

One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499

Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.

Three More

Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.

Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.

Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500

When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444

Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.

Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453

Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.

Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA

Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603

With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.

Three More

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.

River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.

Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

To date, De La Cruz is batting .364/.481/.636 in 27 plate appearances with a home run and three steals. His 37 percent strikeout rate is the lone blemish. Like the rookie version of Fernando Tatis Jr., De La Cruz has the capacity to perform despite a high strikeout rate.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
199 PA, 17 HR, .362/.427/.734

Next up in the Reds developmental pipeline is Encarnacion-Strand. Known as CES to those who like to write about him without using 28 characters, the powerful corner infielder has punished opposing pitchers to the tune of .542/.633/1.042 (1.675 OPS) in his last six games. He hit seven singles, three doubles, and three home runs over the span.

There are aspects of his game that can temper enthusiasm. There’s a risk his plate approach and high swinging strike rates could lead to high strikeout rates. At this point, he’s utterly eviscerated Triple-A. It’s time to see if those concerns are warranted. The Reds have a minor issue to resolve when it comes to selecting CES’s promotion date. Joey Votto’s rehab will end in about 12 days. His recovery in Triple-A is progressing at a slow pace. Fitting all three of CES, Votto, and Spencer Steer in the regular lineup could prove challenging – and would cost Tyler Stephenson playing time too. Such impediments shouldn’t block Encarnacion-Strand for much longer.

Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
215 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .238/.335/.443

Considered one of the top athletes in the minors, Lawlar’s time in Double-A hasn’t been all that impressive. However, in the last week, he’s hitting .407/.429/.704 in 28 plate appearances. He has a 1.029 OPS over his last 73 plate appearances. It would seem he’s made an adjustment. Reports from public sources note concerns about his hit tool. Every other aspect of his game is expected to be above average. Lawlar is the penthouse apartment of prospects – he has a high floor and higher ceiling. Presently, he is on pace to debut in 2024.

Eury Perez, 20, SP, MIA (MLB)
29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

Perez is a big part of the Marlins recent success. Already 3-1 in just six starts, Perez hasn’t missed a beat since skipping from Double-A to the Majors in mid-May. His only truly sub-par outing occurred at Coors Field. While ERA-estimators (4.34 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) suggest he’s had some luck with run prevention, this is still an impressive performance from a young 20-year-old (he has a mid-April birthday).

A peek under the hood suggests Perez still has a thing or two to learn about using his repertoire. He’s regularly using all four of his pitches. Hitters have performed well against his 97.5-mph heater, but they’ve struggled versus the offspeed stuff. Perez features a “big” fastball. It shouldn’t perform as a below-average offering. It’s possible he’s trying to make pitches that would work in Double-A but not the Majors. As he acclimates, I expect his fastball to grade out better.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
206 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .257/.296/.387

The third-highest ranked “Jackson” on most prospect lists, Merrill was a contender for Top 10 prospect status over the offseason. He’s backed up a bit in the early going. The Midwest League happens to be one of the more difficult hitting environments in the minors. While the above triple-slash probably looks bad, it’s only six percent below the league average. Merrill is a hit-over-power prospect who produces high-quality, low-angle contact. The left-handed hitter draws a Michael Brantley comp from the folks at FanGraphs. Though injuries have reduced his developmental opportunities, he remains on pace to debut by his age 22 season.

Adael Amador, 20, 2B, COL (A+)
228 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .306/.392/.510

Last season, Amador profiled as a flexible utility fielder. While there’s never been any question about his feel for contact, the quality of that contact often raised eyebrows in a bad way. Amador looks “small” on the field, and that likely colored scouting reports. He’s strengthened over the last year to the point where he’s no longer seen as an ideal utility candidate. He’ll likely plant at second base for the long haul – especially with defensively adept Ezequiel Tovar ahead of him at shortstop. The switch-hitting Amador still has adjustments to make if he’s to make full use of spacious Coors Field. He taps most of his contact on the ground, though the quality of said contact has continually improved over time. Amador has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career and is running a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate this season. He should reach Double-A before much longer.

Three More

Andrew Painter, PHI (20): Painter was on pace to debut as a 19-year-old when a sprained UCL ended his Spring Training bid. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen on Saturday. The coming weeks mark an important step in his recovery.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS (20): Mayer’s time in Double-A isn’t going so hot. The shortstop is batting .154/.227/.333 in 45 plate appearances. A recent report on FanGraphs noted a mechanical shortcoming similar to Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson – namely, an issue with lifting balls low in the zone.

Connor Norby, BAL (23): There’s no question the Orioles have a lot of infield depth. I’m often asked whom I believe they’ll trade from that depth. Norby is my answer. The short right-handed hitter doesn’t have the utility of others in the system. He’s Major League adjacent and primed for a regular role within the next year. However, he profiles more like a core performer than a high-ceiling star.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Merrill, 19, SS, SDP (A)
AFL: 73 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .308/.356/.431

Merrill was the 27th overall selection in the 2021 draft. One of the youngest players in the AFL, he’s held his own in Arizona after a promising regular season split between the complex and Low-A. He’s now arguably the top prospect in a Padres system that traded the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and James Wood.

Merrill has the look of a throwback shortstop. He’s smaller than many of the current crop of shortstops and has a swing geared more for all-field contact than generating power. He appears to be a high-probability future big leaguer. It’s possible he’ll top out as a utility guy if certain aspects of his game – such as first-step quickness in the field – don’t age well. His defensive aplomb will go a long way toward determining his future role.

Noelvi Marte, 21, SS, CIN (A+)
AFL: 58 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .208/.345/.333

Marte hasn’t been particularly effective this fall – possibly a sign that he’s out of gas after a 520 plate appearance regular season split between Seattle and Cincinnati’s High-A affiliates. Marte has also been prone to streaks this year so he still has plenty of time to turn things around with a couple big games. Encouragingly, he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts. He recently hit a titanic 461-foot home run, showcasing his premium power upside.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
AFL: 53 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .256/.415/.462

One of two exciting, near-Majors catching prospects in the Pirates system, Davis managed just 236 plate appearances during the regular season due to injuries. He’s mostly in Arizona to work on his defense. If he doesn’t improve in all defensive facets, he could eventually move to first base where his bat should still play – just a lot less excitingly. He’s shown more than his characteristic plate discipline this fall. While one home run seems disappointing for a player with premium raw power, he’s also hit five doubles.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, BOS (A+)
AFL: 76 PA, 1 HR, .328/.434/.492

Yorke was one of a few players with more to prove than most in the AFL. He’s mostly succeeded. Yorke currently leads the league in plate appearances and doubles (7). He also has 15.8 percent strikeout and walk rates. The Red Sox undoubtedly hope Yorke can fit in as a future leadoff hitter, and he’s filled that role ably this fall. Lately, it’s been shared that Yorke played through nagging injuries which might have led to his poor performance at High-A. Occasionally, the “nagging injury” card is played to distract from the real reasons for a lousy season. A healthy 2023 campaign could do much to restore confidence in Yorke’s future role in Boston.

Masyn Winn, 20, SS, STL (AA)
AFL: 52 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, .300/.462/.375

Winn is an up-and-coming prospect. At present, the tools are more obvious than the actual statistical outcome. He’s a plus runner who has the capacity to hit for power. Scouts have noted that his game approach doesn’t always tap into those tools – as if he’s selling out for contact at the expense of power. Given that he’s a Cardinals prospect – a system that has long valued discipline and contact – this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Should Winn access more in-game power next season, he could climb onto Top 10 prospect lists. In the AFL, he has just one extra-base hit, though he’s otherwise performed well including 12 walks to just eight strikeouts.

Five More

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Simon currently leads the AFL with 18 RBI. He’s the sort of player the Rays system tends to produce in bulk. He can play second or third base. During the regular season, he hit 22 home runs with 34 steals over 473 plate appearances. He spent the bulk of the season at High-A. Rule 5 eligible, Simon might not be doing enough to claim a 40-man spot with the roster-crunched Rays. If so, we could see him in the Majors next April as a Rule 5 draftee.

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The Cardinals will have a difficult choice with Thomas. He is also Rule 5 eligible. A ground ball machine who worked to a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings this season, Thomas should find himself on a 40-man roster before long. While he didn’t succeed at preventing runs during the regular season, the 5’ 11’’ southpaw features plus command of a four-pitch repertoire. He’s arguably the top-performing pitcher in Arizona, posting a 1.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and four walks in 17.2 innings. His slider in particular looks like it could play up in a relief role.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert is the AFL’s top-performing reliever. He has 15 strikeouts with just one walk and no hits allowed in 7.2 innings. Acquired in the Mike Brosseau trade with the Brewers, Reifert has an upper-90s fastball and a two-plane, borderline elite slider. The right-hander has historically struggled with command, though he’s mostly avoided walks this year. He’s on pace to debut next season.

Zach Daniels, HOU (23): Daniels recently hit the longest home run of the 2022 AFL season – a 481-foot moonball to center field. It was his first home run in an otherwise poor showing in Arizona. He’s addressed his biggest demon – a sky-high strikeout rate – by punching out just five times in 26 plate appearances. However, he’s batting only .130/.231/.304. Power hitters of this profile tend to be volatile.

Zach Britton, TOR (23): Yet another catching prospect in the catcher-rich Blue Jays system, Britton is a highly disciplined left-handed hitter roughly in the mold of Cavan Biggio. Britton isn’t nearly as maxed out on fly ball contact which should help him to hit more consistently than Biggio. Britton should receive more attention from prospect outlets next season as he approaches a Major League debut. He’s currently second in the AFL in OPS with a .457/.524/.686 (1.210 OPS) triple-slash in 40 plate appearances.

Certainly, the Padres’ president of baseball operations is always open to bold moves, and that confidence extends to the team’s prospects in the sense that the Padres “are confident they can keep replenishing their farm system.”  While San Diego has already dealt quality blue-chippers in other deals over the years, more intriguing new names keep emerging.  For instance, Rosenthal writes that teams have shown interest in shortstop Jackson Merrill and outfielder James Wood, the Padres’ two top picks from the 2021 draft.  Merrill and Wood were both high school selections who are still a few years away from the bigs, so in regards to Soto, the Padres could hang onto the young duo as future building blocks while dealing other prospects who better fit the Nationals’ demands.

More from the NL West…

• The Giants’ defense was an underrated reason behind the club’s success in 2021, but this year, San Francisco has fallen near the bottom of several major defensive statistics.  As a result, Rosenthal reports that the Giants are considering adding a strong defender, ideally for an infielder or DH candidate (Tommy La Stella is cited as an example by Rosenthal).  Getting one good glove into the mix might raise all tides, allowing the Giants to better align their fielders and help fill the holes created by multiple injuries around the roster.
• Andrew Heaney is expected to be activated off the 15-day injured list to start the Dodgers’ game against the Nationals on Wednesday, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters.  After two starts to open the season, Heaney has made only one other appearance (on June 19), sandwiched between two lengthy IL stints due to shoulder problems.  The left-hander tossed five innings in his last minor league rehab start, and it’s safe to assume L.A. will keep Heaney’s workload relatively limited as he ramps back up.  In other Dodgers injury news, Chris Taylor (foot fracture) took part in batting practice yesterday and might be ticketed for a rehab assignment later this week.

Of course, Merrill’s willingness to sign for less than slot value played a role in the Friars selecting him in that spot in the first place. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Merrill between 72nd and 101st in their pre-draft rankings. It’s safe to presume Padres’ evaluators are higher on Merrill than those public prognosticators, but the Friars were no doubt aware he’d be willing to take an underslot deal in the first round to forego his commitment to the University of Kentucky.

Evaluators write that Merrill came on strong towards the end of his high school season. The Maryland native has a prototype infielder’s build with some power projection and bat speed. BA and Law express some trepidation about the consistency of his hit tool, though, and all three outlets agree he’s likely to outgrow shortstop down the line.

Merrill’s underslot agreement saves a little less than $800K for the Padres to reallocate to some of their later selections. Second-rounder James Wood is the only other prep player among San Diego’s top ten picks, so it’s likely he’ll wound up with a bonus significantly above the $1.1MM slot value associated with the 62nd pick.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)