Bailey was a front-of-the-rotation arm during his prime years in Cincinnati, which included no-hitters in both 2012 and 2013. This led to a six-year, $105MM extension prior to the 2014 season that unfortunately became something of an albatross for the team, as Bailey battled multiple injuries (including a Tommy John surgery) over his remaining five years with the Reds. However, after catching on with the Royals on a minors deal, he rebounded to post serviceable numbers over 163 1/3 combined innings with K.C. and Oakland in 2019, with a 4.57 ERA/4.60 SIERA and an above-average 7.6% walk rate.
Injuries again hampered Bailey in 2020, as biceps tendinitis limited him to only eight innings with the Twins. The righty didn’t sign with another team during the winter, though he did make Team USA’s roster for the Olympic baseball qualifying tournament.
The 35-year-old has by far the most experience of any pitcher in the Athletics farm system, and Bailey is likely to remain on hand as a depth option should an injury or a need arise in Oakland’s rotation. Mike Fiers was re-signed last February to fill that veteran depth role, though Fiers has been on the injured list since early May due to an elbow sprain and will out of action at least through July after receiving a PRP injection. It’s probably safe to assume that the A’s will continue to seek out more pitching (both for the rotation and the bullpen) as the July 30 trade deadline nears.
]]>9:54AM: The United States Olympic baseball team will have its full roster announced later today, though MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that several well-known big league names will be part of Team USA.
Right-handers Homer Bailey, Edwin Jackson, and David Robertson will be part of the pitching mix, as will left-hander Anthony Gose. Matt Kemp, Matt Wieters, and Todd Frazier are some of the veteran position players. Bailey, Kemp, and Wieters all played in the majors as recently as 2020 and didn’t sign with a new team this past offseason, while Frazier appeared in 13 games for the Pirates just this season. It was only back on May 13 that Frazier chose to become a free agent, after Pittsburgh designated him for assignment.
Beyond these experienced names, some notable youngsters will also be on the team, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe noted yesterday that Red Sox prospects Triston Casas and Jarren Duran are participating. Rays right-handed pitching prospect Joe Ryan is also expected to be part of the team, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Any player not on a current 40-man Major League roster was eligible for Team USA, though naturally a team would have to agree to allow its minor leaguers to play.
Mike Scioscia will manage Team USA, and the team will take to the field on May 31-June 5 during a qualifying tournament in Florida. The Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Canada, Cuba, Colombia, and Venezuela are the other seven teams involved, and the winner of the tournament will automatically qualify for the Olympics. The second- and third-place finishers will advance to a final qualifying tournament against Australia, Chinese Taipei, and the Netherlands on June 16-20 in Mexico, and the winner of that event will claim the sixth and final Olympic berth.
Japan, Mexico, Israel, and South Korea have already qualified for the baseball event at Olympic Games, which are scheduled to be held July 23-August 6 in Tokyo. Originally set to take place in 2020, the Olympics were naturally postponed for a year due to the pandemic, and the Games are still slated to get underway in July despite a worsening COVID-19 situation in Japan.
]]>Robertson, now 36, signed a two-year, $23MM contract with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season. He’d been the game’s most durable reliever prior to that contract, averaging 65 appearances and 65 innings per year over the preceding nine seasons. Unfortunately, that run came to an end with a pair of injury marred seasons in Philadelphia that culminated in the aforementioned Tommy John procedure. Robertson tossed just 6 2/3 innings in his two years with the Phillies. He’s still hoping for a big league return at some point, per Feinsand.
Frazier recently elected free agency after being designated for assignment by the Pirates. He put together a nice Spring Training with the Bucs, hitting .250/.353/.643 with three homers in 34 plate appearances. Upon being added to the big league roster and joining the club in the regular season, however, Frazier fell into a 3-for-35 slump before being designated and clearing waivers. He’ll look to get back on track in this latest venture, which could conceivably serve as a showcase opportunity or ultimately lead to a spot on the Olympic roster.
Neither Bailey nor Jackson signed with a big league club over the winter. Bailey spent the 2020 season with the Twins but was injured for much of the season. He enjoyed a respectable season between the Royals and A’s in 2019, however, tossing 163 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball with a 21.4 percent strikeout rate and a 7.6 walk rate. Jackson hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since allowing more runs than innings pitched between the Blue Jays and Tigers in 2019, though he had a nice 2018 campaign in Oakland (92 innings, 3.33 ERA).
Notably, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reported this week that Team USA also reached out to Ryan Braun about a possible match. Braun, who has also received interest from Team Israel, tells Shaikin that suiting back up for any team “doesn’t make sense for me,” adding that he “couldn’t imagine being happier or enjoying life more” than he is right now while spending time with his family. Braun said back in March that he’s “strongly leaning” toward retirement, and while he tells Shaikin he’s leaving the door cracked in case he finds himself missing the game in the future, it doesn’t sound as though Braun has any interest in returning to the game right now.
Team USA has yet to formally announce its roster or a list of players who’ll train at their camp in Port St. Lucie, Fla., but Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser reported late last month that players on 40-man rosters would not be eligible for the team. The qualifier tournament runs May 31-June 5 and features the United States, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.
]]>This is a surprising outcome for Bailey, a former Red who revived his career between Kansas City and Oakland last year. The Twins, fresh off an AL Central title, then signed Bailey to a one-year, $7MM guarantee last offseason. Minnesota only got two starts and eight innings from Bailey this year, though.
Bailey, 34, landed on the injured list with biceps tendinitis after his first start of the season July 28, and he returned from nearly a two-month absence on Tuesday. Bailey threw three innings of one-run ball in that game – a win over the Tigers – but it wasn’t enough to save his job with the playoff-bound Twins, who count Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Rich Hill and Michael Pineda as their top four starters.
Colina, meanwhile, is a hard-throwing 23-year-old who ranks among the Twins’ 20 best prospects at MLB.com (No. 16) and FanGraphs (No. 16). MLB.com writes that while Colina has a chance to turn into a major league starter, “an impact reliever” role may also be in his future. Colina divided last year among High-A, Double-A and Triple-A, where he combined for a 2.96 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over 97 1/3 innings.
]]>More out of the Twin Cities…
Bailey, 34, signed a one-year, $7MM deal with the Twins on the heels of a bounceback 2019 effort split between the Royals and Athletics. The longtime Reds righty was limited to 231 2/3 innings of 6.25 ERA ball in his final four years in Cincinnati but turned in 163 1/3 innings between Kansas City and Oakland last year. Bailey logged a combined 4.57 ERA but a more impressive 4.11 FIP, averaging 8.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 along the way. His 10.8 percent swinging-strike rate was the second-best of his career.
This season, however, Bailey has made just one start for the Twins. It was a solid effort, as he held the Cardinals to a pair of runs on four hits and two walks with four strikeouts though five innings. But Bailey felt some discomfort in his right arm shortly thereafter, and he landed on the injured list with biceps tendinitis that has sidelined him since
The 2020 campaign will go down as a largely lost season for the veteran righty, but he’ll have the opportunity to make at least one start in the season’s final week — perhaps two — and could yet factor into the postseason pitching staff in some manner. It won’t be a great platform him as he ventures back out into free agency, but getting back to the mound and performing reasonably well would give him a bit of a boost on the open market this winter.
]]>Odorizzi was forced out of last night’s matchup with the Royals in the fourth inning after sustaining a line drive to the chest off the bat of Alex Gordon. Per Statcast, the ball was hit at 103.2 mph off the bat, and Odorizzi would later tell reporters that he was having some trouble moving around and catching his breath.
It’s a tough break for Odorizzi, who was making just his third start of the season after dealing with an intercostal strain earlier this year. He’s struggled to get going in 2020, surrendering 9 runs in 10 innings and allowing a home run in each of his starts.
Hopefully, several days of rest will allow Odorizzi to get back to full health without having to spend more than the requisite 10 days on the shelf.
But with Odorizzi out of commission for the time being and Bailey’s injury keeping him out of action for longer than expected, the Twins may be pressed to more aggressively pursue starting pitching in the days leading up to the August 31 trade deadline. Minnesota shouldn’t be in panic mode with Randy Dobnak showing some potential and Michael Pineda not far off a return from suspension, but an upgrade certainly couldn’t hurt. We’ll have to wait to see which names are available and just how active the trade market is, but the Twins are one of the teams that could benefit most from an additional starter.
]]>Both players secured one-year deals, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown. Bailey’s contract comes with a $7MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He also has some incentive pay available, but only if he gets up to 180 innings, Hayes tweets.
There’s a lot to process here. More than anything, it’s a highly notable development for a Twins club that entered the offseason promising to pursue impact arms. Perhaps now the club will turn over its still-stuffed war chest in pursuit of third baseman Josh Donaldson.
We’ve already seen the Twins move to retain Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, though the latter will open the year on the restricted list while he finishes a suspension for a banned masking agent. Having bid adieu to Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez, the Minnesota org was left with a mix of rather inexperienced rotation candidates such as Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak.
Now, Bailey slots into an immediate rotation spot while Hill joins Pineda as an anticipated mid-season boost. Hill is working back from elbow surgery and likely won’t be available on the MLB mound until the summer. In effect, the organization has pre-purchased a pair of trade deadline rotation pieces. That’ll make it tough to add any other clear-cut starters now or in the summer trade market, unless it becomes clear that the expected timelines can’t be met.
All things considered, it’s quite the value-driven gambit for the Twins, who raced out to an AL Central title last year but face competition for the crown in 2020. The organization made no secret of its desire to land higher-quality starters, but came away without any of the major hurlers that populated the free agent market.
[RELATED: Twins Will Pursue “Impact” Pitching — And They Can Afford It]
There’s much to commend about both Hill and Bailey, but it’d be tough to say that the new duo is a clear upgrade over the outgoing two-some of Gibson and Perez. The Twins obviously prefer the price tag on the two they’ve landed, but there is a reason that other organizations were willing to promise bigger money to Gibson (three years, $30MM) and Perez (one year, $6MM).
The Twins do have some real potential impact in Hill, despite the fact that he’ll celebrate his 40th birthday before throwing a pitch for the organization. The resurgent veteran has thrown limited innings since his reemergence — both by design and due to injuries — but has been awesome when available. Dating back to his late-2015 run with the Red Sox, he carries a 2.91 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 466 1/3 innings.
Given the unusual incentive structure of Hill’s deal, it’s obvious both that the Twins anticipate a mid-season debut and that they won’t expect him to turn in overly lengthy outings. The master curveballer only flung 58 2/3 frames in his 13 starts last year with the Dodgers, and he can now max out his incentives package if he can extend that just a bit. The organization evidently wasn’t worried by Hill’s recent arrest in an incident he called “overblown.”
If Hill gets back to health and back to his now-typical form, he’ll provide a weapon down the stretch and into a hopeful postseason berth. The addition of Bailey seems intended to address rather a different need — solid innings over the course of the season — though he also comes with a sort of upside of his own.
The 33-year-old Bailey had a nice bounceback showing in 2019, particularly after a mid-season move from the Royals to the Athletics. He finished the campaign with 163 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In a season full of explosive offensive performances, those were rather useful frames. Bailey logged 2.9 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR in 2019, the sort of output that would justify his current contract if repeated.
Notably, Bailey showed an uptick in his swinging-strike rate, posting a 10.8% level that he hadn’t touched since his heyday. That’s increasingly easy to accomplish in today’s game but still notable for a pitcher that generally fills up the zone. Bailey’s 93+ mph average fastball was shy of his peak but in line with his post-Tommy John levels. His mid-season strides don’t seem to correspond to any major changes to his approach or pitch quality, so there’s no particular reason to expect a late-career breakout, but his peripherals and Statcast numbers generally support Bailey’s low-4 ERA output.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
]]>More news and notes out of the AL West…
July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner. Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.
The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market. As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.
Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation. Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery. Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.
Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent. This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.
This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books. While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility. Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.
Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM. The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.
Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list. While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.
]]>As Luhnow mentioned, Peacock’s injury status adds another question mark to a rotation that was already in need of at least one more starter. While Houston has been linked to any number of big-name starters on the rumor mill, acquiring a reliever would add pen depth, and also perhaps allow the Astros to experiment with using an opener and bulk pitcher for one of the rotation spots, rather than a full-time starter. For the short term, Luhnow figured his team will have to get though something of a pitching crunch over the next few days, though “we talked to a couple clubs about some players who might fit in.”
More from around the division…
Bailey, 33, will go down as another bargain-bin acquisition for the playoff-hungry Athletics, who sit six games behind the first-place Astros, but currently slot in as the second Wild-Card team in the American League. Much like last season, when the team won 97 games and landed in the Wild Card game, the Athletics will hunt for affordable pitching help (which came in the form of Mike Fiers in 2018) to boost the club to back-to-back postseason berths. Rarely a team to make splash acquisitions, the A’s will likely remain on the periphery of the discussions surrounding marquee starters like Noah Syndergaard and Trevor Bauer. Of course, that doesn’t mean that value can’t be found elsewhere on the trade market.
Evidently, David Forst, Billy Beane and company believe that Bailey represents such a value. With the Dodgers, who acquired and immediately released Bailey in a December blockbuster with the Reds, paying the remainder of his hefty salary, the Royals snagged the veteran on a minor-league deal, meaning that the Athletics will only owe about $250K to Bailey.
Though he was maligned last season for his 1-14 record, Homer Bailey has shown some encouraging signs this year, and has posted his lowest ERA since 2014. He’s striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings, and home runs have come less often than last season. This isn’t an acquisition that can transform a pitching staff overnight, but Bailey will step in as a low-cost veteran who could pay dividends in the stretch run.
It’s been pitching that has concerned the Athletics all season, and many anticipated the team pursuing upgrades on the mound this summer. With a myriad of injuries preventing promising southpaws Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo, and A.J. Puk from contributing thus far, Oakland has had to patch together a makeshift rotation to carry them through the first half. Not to mention breakout star Frankie Montas, who won’t be eligible for postseason play after a PED suspension. And while the staff hasn’t plummeted to the bottom of the league—Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, and Chris Bassitt have held their own—it’s hard to put much confidence in that group winning a playoff series, especially against the juggernauts of the American League.
Expect more to come from Oakland this trade season, especially on the pitching front. The front office, though garnering a reputation as frugal, can be aggressive when it senses a window for contention, and the club is in a good spot. Other veteran starters may still be in play, but it seems that with Bailey in the fold, the team’s focus will shift to the bullpen. The existing group has a solid track record between Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, and Lou Trivino, though consistency has been lacking in that department this season.
As for Kansas City, it seems unlikely that this is the last we’ll hear from Dayton Moore and the front office this July. The 32-61 Royals have been rumored to be open to trades involving just about anybody on the roster, with a few exceptions. Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier appear to be two cornerstones that the franchise is intent on keeping around, though a steep asking price for Whit Merrifield might make it difficult to pry him away from KC. Alex Gordon, meanwhile, may have redeemed some of his value with a renaissance season, but the veteran seems keen on playing out his career with the Royals, the franchise that drafted him.
That said, there are a number of Royals who could find themselves in different uniforms by the time the calendar turns to August, with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jake Diekman, and Jorge Soler perhaps the most realistic trade candidates. Diekman has apparently already attracted some interest from the Nationals, and other contending clubs could be drawn to Kennedy’s resurgence as a high-leverage reliever. Of course, in the cases of Kennedy and Duffy, the Royals would likely have to eat considerable portions of their remaining contracts to facilitate a trade.
Kevin Merrell, who heads to Kansas City in this swap, was a 2017 draft selection of the Athletics in Competitive Balance Round A. Ranked by MLB.com as the Athletics’ 17th-best prospect, Merrell is touted for his speed on the bases, with questions surrounding his bat. In general, his profile keeps with the Royals’ trend of acquiring speedy athletes, and Merrell, 23, has the potential to grow into a multi-positional depth role with Kansas City. With a crop of impressive young position players and an influx of college pitchers from the 2018 draft, the team may find its way out of the rebuilding phase quicker than anticipated.
]]>Bailey, who’s a month from his 33rd birthday, will try to resurrect his career in Kansas City. He earned the chance after turning in 13 1/3 innings of 4.05 ERA ball in camp, with 7.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Once a quality rotation piece with the Reds, Bailey has struggled to a 6.25 ERA in just 231 2/3 innings over the past four seasons while dealing with significant arm issues.
As for Ellis, the 26-year-old just made his first MLB appearance after winning a spot out of camp as a Rule 5 pick. He’ll be offered back to the Cardinals if he isn’t claimed. Ellis has spent most of his time in the minors as a starter. Last year, he pitched to a 3.93 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 132 2/3 innings with the Cards’ top two affiliates.
On the face of things, this transaction isn’t a terribly significant one. Rule 5 picks are dropped with quite some frequency, after all, and veteran starters such as Bailey are often tapped for innings. But the Royals evidently found something to like in Ellis, with skipper Ned Yost saying that the club wanted to “give it a full look” because they liked his stuff. (Via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star, on Twitter.) If that’s truly the case, it’s a bit odd that the organization couldn’t find room for Ellis on a roster that includes several low-upside veteran pitchers and a bizarre bench mix featuring two first basemen/designated hitters (Lucas Duda and Frank Schwindel, who supplement Ryan O’Hearn and Jorge Soler) and an outfielder who’s known almost exclusively as a pinch runner and defensive replacement (Terrance Gore).
]]>More from the division…