Smith, a left-hander from the University of Arkansas, was the second pitcher off the board. He and Wake Forest righty Chase Burns were 1-2 among pitchers in some order on virtually every pre-draft rankings. Cincinnati selected Burns with the second pick and signed him to a record $9.25MM bonus. Smith, the final top five draftee to agree to terms, lands the fourth-largest bonus of the class.

The 6’3″ southpaw worked from the rotation in all three seasons in Fayetteville. He had his best season as a junior, turning in a 2.06 earned run average across 84 innings in the SEC. Smith trailed only Burns among Division I pitchers with 161 strikeouts, an incredible 48.6% rate. Even with an elevated 10.3% walk rate, he was far too dominant for most college hitters.

Prospect evaluators credit Smith with a mid-upper 90s fastball and a plus or better slider. Baseball America notes that Smith’s 3/4 arm slot allows his fastball to generate a tough angle at the top of the strike zone. BA raises some questions about the infrequency with which Smith used his changeup in college, while The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that his setup on the first base side of the rubber made it difficult for him to attack right-handed batters on the inner half. Those quibbles (plus a Tommy John surgery which Smith underwent in high school) lead to some risk, but there’s also massive upside given the quality of his top two pitches.

Bonemer is a righty-hitting infielder from a Michigan high school. He’d been slated to attend the University of Virginia but will head to pro ball on an overslot deal. The 43rd overall selection comes with a $2.17MM slot value. Bonemer’s bonus pays him like a late first-round talent. Evaluators praise his power upside and give him a good chance to play somewhere in the infield. Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each raise some concern about his pure hitting ability, with Law’s pre-draft report pointing to Bonemer’s tendency to get pull-oriented in his swing.

The first-round picks…

1. Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
2. Cincinnati Reds: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
3. Colorado Rockies: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia
4. Oakland Athletics: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
5. Chicago White Sox: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
6. Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
7. St. Louis Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia
8. Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep High School (MS)
10. Washington Nationals: Seaver King, SS/3B/OF, Wake Forest
11. Detroit Tigers: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)
12. Boston Red Sox: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
13. San Francisco Giants: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
14. Chicago Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
15. Seattle Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, LHP/RHP, Mississippi State
16. Miami Marlins: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville High School (SC)
17. Milwaukee Brewers: Braylon Payne, OF, Elkins High School (TX)
18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen, OF/MI, Westlake High School (TX)
19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
21. Minnesota Twins: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
22. Baltimore Orioles: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee High School (FL)
24. Atlanta Braves: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguero High School (AZ)
25. San Diego Padres: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City High School (OK)
26. New York Yankees: Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Dante Nori, OF, Northville High School (MI)
28. Houston Astros: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View High School (AR)
30. Texas Rangers: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

All 30 teams will have picks in the first round this year, though the Mets, Padres, and Yankees all had their first-round selections dropped back by 10 slots.  These three teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier ($273MM) in 2023, and thus their punishment included a 10-space drop in their opening draft choice.

The 2024 draft will take place over three days, consisting of 20 rounds of selections.  Rounds 3-10 will take place on Monday, rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, and the draft’s first 74 picks will come off the board tonight.  Those 74 picks consist of the first two proper rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and two Prospect Promotion Incentive picks.

The two PPI selections will go to the Diamondbacks at 31st overall and the Orioles at 32nd overall, awarded since Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson fit all of the criteria for their teams to receive the bonus picks.  Carroll and Henderson won Rookie of the Year honors, both young stars were included on their respective teams’ Opening Day rosters, and were rated as top-100 prospects in at least two of three sets of preseason prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and ESPN.