Profar told reporters via Zoom this morning that landing with the Braves is a near-ideal scenario. As a native of Curacao, he grew up idolizing countryman Andruw Jones and watching him with the Braves. He’ll now be united with friend and countryman Ozzie Albies with those same Braves. Profar indicated that as soon as free agency began, his top two preferences were to remain in San Diego or sign in Atlanta (via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The Padres, who are dealing with a payroll crunch and ownership infighting, never came close to Atlanta’s offer at any point in free agency, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

With Profar slated for everyday work in left field and Michael Harris II in center, that leaves right field as the only place for Kelenic and De La Cruz to get playing time early in the season. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be back to man right field eventually but is expected to miss more than a month of the season as he finishes off rehabbing last year’s torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. A platoon is possible, but Anthopoulos made clear that Kelenic “will get a lot of reps in right field” this spring and “will have every opportunity to be that guy.”

Kelenic, 25, came to the Braves by way of a convoluted series of salary dump trades last year. The former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect was effectively purchased from the Mariners, with Atlanta taking on the underwater contracts of first baseman Evan White and lefty Marco Gonzales to get Kelenic to Atlanta. Gonzales was subsequently traded to the Pirates, who took on about $3MM of his $12MM salary. White was shipped to Anaheim in return for another pair of underwater contracts: David Fletcher and Max Stassi. The Braves quickly flipped Stassi to the White Sox for a player to be named later, agreeing to pay the bulk of Stassi’s salary. When factoring in the dead money they absorbed and the associated luxury tax hits, they spent around $32MM to acquire Kelenic.

Suffice it to say, year one of the gambit didn’t play out as hoped. Kelenic got out to a decent start in April, slumped in May, had a monster showing in June, and then tanked for the majority of the final three months. On the whole, he hit .231/.286/.393. His 15 homers were a new career-high, but he also fanned in almost 30% of his plate appearances while providing slightly below-average defense in the outfield and slashing only .206/.236/.279 against lefties.

That anemic performance against southpaws is where De La Cruz could come into play. The longtime Marlin and brief Pirate was non-tendered earlier this winter and quickly scooped by by Atlanta. De La Cruz makes for an odd platoon partner for Kelenic, however. His right-handed bat is very clearly more productive versus lefties than the lefty-swinging Kelenic, but De La Cruz has still been a below-average hitter against southpaws in his career: .270/.315/.390 (92 wRC+). Considering Kelenic has only been about average versus righties in his career, it’s an underwhelming platoon unless one or both players take a substantial step forward.

That shouldn’t be a long-term issue, of course. Acuña should be back sometime in May or June. At that point, the Braves can rely on a Profar-Harris-Acuña alignment from left to right. Kelenic, whom Anthopoulos praised as an option capable of playing all three outfield spots, could then slide into more of a fourth outfield role with De La Cruz serving as a depth option in Triple-A.

With the outfield largely settled, the question of what’s next for the Braves naturally arises. Anthopoulos said last night that he has the flexibility needed to add to the rotation and/or bullpen (via David O’Brien of The Athletic). No deal in either department is close, however, and the veteran baseball ops leader emphasized that any rotation arm that’s brought in would need to be a decisive upgrade over in-house arms like Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson. Both are out of minor league options and thus very likely ticketed for roster spots to begin the season. O’Brien speculates that Atlanta will add a reliever and forgo a prominent rotation acquisition.

The Braves currently have Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach in the top three spots of the rotation. Spencer Strider will return at some point in the season’s first half after undergoing UCL surgery last April. Depth options in Triple-A include Davis Daniel, Bryce Elder and prospects Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver. Once Strider returns, that’s a lot of arms for what’s effectively one rotation spot — assuming good health for each of Sale, Lopez and Schwellenbach.

As O’Brien suggested then, a bullpen addition makes a bit more sense. The Braves will likely be without Joe Jimenez all season after the right-hander underwent knee surgery, subtracting a key piece of their late-inning relief group. With Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee all on board, there’s still a strong high-leverage foundation, but there’s plenty of room to add a reliever and still remain under the luxury tax threshold, if that’s a goal.

RosterResource currently projects the Braves for a bit more than $230MM of tax obligations, leaving them nearly $11MM from the $241MM threshold. Notable unsigned relievers who could fit into that budget include Kyle Finnegan, Phil Maton, Andrew Chafin, Danny Coulombe, Tim Hill and injury rebound candidates such as Kendall Graveman, Lou Trivino and Keynan Middleton. If the Braves are willing to cross the tax threshold for a third straight season (or engineer a trade to clear up a bit more breathing room), names like Carlos Estevez and David Robertson remain available on the market.

Stark’s colleague David O’Brien writes that Morton and the Braves have not had any recent contract talks. Atlanta and Morton had preliminary discussions shortly after the postseason, but it appears the team has pivoted to other targets as they look for outfield and pitching help. Morton is open to pitching elsewhere, though O’Brien writes that the two-time All-Star prefers teams that host Spring Training near his home in Bradenton, Florida. In addition to Atlanta, the Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, Pirates and Tigers are among the teams that could fit that description.

Morton played this past season on a $20MM club option. Even in a strong pitching market, he’ll probably need to take a reduction this winter. Morton turned in back-of-the-rotation results over 30 starts. He worked to a 4.19 ERA across 165 1/3 innings. Morton struck out 23.8% of batters faced with a 46.3% ground-ball percentage. While that was his strongest grounder rate since 2021, his strikeouts have dropped in consecutive seasons. Morton fanned 25.6% of opponents in 2023 and posted a 28.2% strikeout rate back in ’22.

The velocity and swinging strike rate have also gone backwards slightly. Morton averaged roughly 94 MPH on his fastball and posted an 11.4% swinging strike rate. Both numbers are solid but below his 2021-23 production. Those yellow flags started to catch up to him as the season progressed. Morton carried a 4.07 ERA into the All-Star Break. He allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while opponents hit .279/.357/.469 in the second half.

None of that is to say that Morton isn’t still a solid pitcher. There’s value in a veteran who can top 150 innings with roughly league average results. Even if he projects more as a #4/5 starter than the mid-rotation arm he’s been for most of his career, he could land something like the $13MM which Kyle Gibson got last winter.

That could be beyond Atlanta’s comfort zone financially. The Braves pushed close to the third tier of luxury tax penalization this year, their second straight season paying the tax. It doesn’t appear they’re inclined to match that spending level next season. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $217MM, including arbitration estimates. That puts them around $24MM shy of the base threshold.

Atlanta could look to limbo under the tax line to reset their status and avoid the escalating penalties levied on repeat payors. That doesn’t appear to be a firm mandate, however. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves would be willing to pay the tax again under certain circumstances. “It’s just a percentage you’re going up. It’s for every dollar over. You’re aware of it, but it doesn’t stop you from doing anything,” he said (link via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). “If the right opportunity presents itself, we’ll do it.”

That said, Atlanta’s start to the winter has been quiet. They restructured deals for Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to move some money back to future seasons. The Braves dumped Jorge Soler’s salary for no return, as they ended up non-tendering the player they acquired (Griffin Canning). Atlanta seemingly made little effort to retain Max Fried, nor is there any indication they made a serious play for speculative target Willy Adames. Their only MLB acquisitions thus far are split deals for Carlos D. Rodriguez and Connor Gillispie.

The Braves have almost never been free agent spenders under Anthopoulos. They’ve made much more of an impact on the trade market. Perhaps there’s another such move on the horizon, but they could also be relying on internal rotation options to step up after losing Fried and Morton.

Chris Sale will lead the staff on the heels of his first Cy Young win. López and Spencer Schwellenbach slot behind him as a strong 2-3 combination. Spencer Strider isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, but he could return from his internal brace procedure within the season’s first half. The back of the staff is questionable. Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2022. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep struggled with their command in the minors. Bryce Elder performed well in Triple-A but was rocked for a 6.52 ERA in 10 major league starts.

That could open a rotation opportunity for Grant Holmes depending on how the remainder of the offseason progresses. The 28-year-old righty pitched mostly in relief this year, working to a 3.56 ERA over 26 MLB appearances (seven starts). Anthopoulos said this week that the Braves were intrigued by the possibility for Holmes to grab a rotation job in Spring Training. “He’s someone that we’d like to find out what he can do, because we do think there’s significant upside there if he can get a starting spot,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “But again, that won’t stop us from either trading for or signing any starter.”

According to O’Brien, the club’s initial plans for the offseason were scuttled when they received worrisome medical updates regarding stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider as well as reliever Joe Jimenez. Neither Acuna nor Strider is expected to be ready for Opening Day as things stand, and O’Brien adds that both could be out of action “well into May.” That news, in conjunction with the loss of Jimenez to knee surgery for most or all of the 2025 campaign, left the Braves to look for ways to free up salary. Per O’Brien, the club likely wouldn’t have restructured the contracts of Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer nor declined the club option of veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud had these injuries not put additional pressure on the club to pursue help in the outfield, rotation, and bullpen.

Of those three areas of the roster, the outfield appears to be the most pressing for the club to address. O’Brien notes that the Braves may prefer to be extra cautious with Acuna next season in the aftermath of his second torn ACL in four seasons, particularly after he struggled (at least relative to his own elite standards) in 2022 after returning to the lineup as soon as possible. That’s led the club to pursue outfield help thanks to the relatively lackluster in-house alternatives of Eli White, Luke Williams and Carlos D. Rodriguez as options to pair with Jarred Kelenic and Michael Harris II on the grass until Acuna returns.

On the pitching side of things, however, the Braves seemingly have more comfort with their internal options. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale figures to be joined by Lopez and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach in the club’s Opening Day rotation for 2025, and the club has a large number of possible internal options to handle the other two rotation spots including Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, and Ian Anderson among others, but Anthopoulos suggested one surprising internal candidate for a rotation job as well: right-hander Grant Holmes.

The 28-year-old made his MLB debut for the Braves this past season and excelled in a swing role for the club with a 3.56 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work split between seven starts and 19 relief appearances. Given Holmes’s apparent comfort moving between the rotation and bullpen, he could prove to be a sensible choice to fill in for Strider in the club’s Opening Day rotation before moving into a relief role once the hard-throwing righty returns to action. Similarly, O’Brien notes that Anthopoulos expressed interest in using right-hander Daysbel Hernandez in a set-up role in 2025 to help make up for the loss of Jimenez. Hernandez pitched just 18 innings for Atlanta in 2024 across 16 appearances, but he made a strong impression in that limited time with a 2.50 ERA, a 35.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.11 FIP.

One other option to help make up for the loss of Jimenez that O’Brien notes could be on the table is a reunion with southpaw A.J. Minter. While O’Brien suggests that the club “might” re-sign Minter this winter, one potential wrinkle in bringing Minter back to help ease the loss of Jimenez is the fact that the lefty might also miss Opening Day following surgery. Minter underwent season-ending hip surgery back in August, and O’Brien notes that it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll be ready to pitch early in the 2025 season.

Even setting aside the potential implications Minter’s health could have on Atlanta’s interest in a reunion, his injury woes lingering into the season could substantially impact earning power this winter, as well. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal for Minter earlier this offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but that prediction came with the presumption that the southpaw would be ready for Opening Day in 2025. If Minter’s rehab from surgery leaves Opening Day in question for the lefty throughout the offseason, it would hardly be a surprise to see the 31-year-old settle for a one-year deal this winter in hopes of proving himself healthy and having a better chance at a more lucrative multi-year deal next year.

Minter’s year concludes with a 2.62 ERA across 34 1/3 innings. He fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate. That’s a solid strikeout and walk profile but a tick below the numbers he’d posted from 2022-23. Minter fanned more than 30% of his opponents in each of the previous two years, topping 60 innings in both seasons.

Hip discomfort has plagued Minter for a few months. He initially went on the IL in late May with inflammation. His return from that injury proved relatively short-lived and necessitated the year-ending surgery. It’s possible that marks the end of his Atlanta tenure. The former second-round pick will hit free agency during the upcoming offseason. He still has a shot at a multi-year deal, though that’s not the lock it had seemed earlier in the season.

Dylan Lee stepped into the bullpen in Minter’s place. He’s joined in the relief group by Grant Holmes, who moved back to the bullpen this week. Snitker announced before Tuesday’s game that the Braves were kicking Holmes to relief after they reinstated Reynaldo López from the injured list (X link via David O’Brien of the Athletic). The 28-year-old rookie had made four starts between late July and the middle of this month. He pitched fairly well, working to a 4.57 ERA with an impressive 28% strikeout rate in 21 2/3 innings.

There’s not any room for Holmes to maintain a spot in the rotation unless the Braves wanted to go to a six-man staff. Chris Sale, Max Fried, López, Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton all have spots secured. Holmes exhausted his minor league options while he was a prospect in the Oakland farm system. The Braves can’t send him to Triple-A without running him through waivers. Holmes has pitched well enough this season that he’d very likely be claimed, so the Braves will keep him in a multi-inning relief capacity. Holmes tossed two scoreless innings against Philadelphia on Tuesday and is up to a 3.45 ERA through 47 frames on the season.

That doesn’t leave much flexibility for any kind of roster maneuvering. Of Atlanta’s eight MLB relievers, only Lee still has options remaining. Schwellenbach is their only starter who can freely be sent down, although he’s pitching so well that the team has no reason to consider doing that. The 13-pitcher limit could eventually push the Braves to make a call on whether to continue carrying both Luke Jackson and Jesse Chavez in the middle innings.

Injuries have been an unfortunate theme for Atlanta throughout the season. That continued this week with Austin Riley suffering a hand fracture that’ll sideline him for well over a month. Urshela is the short-term answer at third base, though the Braves seem to be considering a contingency option in the minors. As Francys Romero reported (on X) earlier this week, Atlanta is giving Yuli Gurriel third base playing time at Triple-A Gwinnett. He had played exclusively first or second base for the Stripers until Riley’s injury; he has started the past two games at the hot corner.

Gurriel signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in April. He’s having a very strong season with Gwinnett, hitting .297/.378/.493 with 12 homers and a strong strikeout and walk profile. That has yet to get him back to the majors after well below-average seasons with the Astros and Marlins in 2022-23. The 40-year-old infielder hasn’t started an MLB game at third base since 2019, instead spending almost all of his time at first base in recent years.

Holmes, 28, was a first-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2014 and quickly rose to be a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport. Holmes was swapped alongside Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton from L.A. to Oakland in the trade that sent Josh Reddick to the Dodgers just before the 2016 trade deadline, and at the time Holmes appeared to be the headliner of the return headed to the A’s. Unfortunately, shoulder problems and ineffectiveness at the upper levels of the minors prevented Holmes from impacting the A’s during his time with the organization, and he was outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster in early 2022.

The right-hander joined the Braves on a minor league deal for the 2023 season and generally pitched well in a relief role with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett. In 61 innings of work, Holmes posted a 3.54 ERA with a 28.7% strikeout rate. That was enough for the Braves to re-sign him to a fresh minor league deal ahead of the 2024 season, and he’s once again found success with the club at the Triple-A level, this time in a swing role: in 18 appearances (3 starts) spanning 41 innings, Holmes has dominated to the tune of a 2.63 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate in that time. That was clearly enough for the Braves to decide to give Holmes a shot at the big league level, and he’s now poised to make his MLB debut after a decade working his way through the minor leagues.

Headed down to Triple-A in place of Holmes is Kerr, who Atlanta acquired from the Padres alongside Matt Carpenter in a deal over the offseason. The southpaw’s time with the Braves hasn’t gone as the club was surely hoping when they took on Carpenter’s contract to acquire him. In 22 1/3 innings of multi-inning relief work, Kerr has struggled to a 5.64 ERA and 4.40 FIP across ten appearances in the majors. The lefty has appeared to be more effective in shorter bursts, as he has allowed just two runs on nine hits and three walks while striking out eight across nine innings of work when throwing 40 pitches or less in an outing. For now, Kerr figures to head back to Triple-A and wait for his next opportunity to impact the big league bullpen in Atlanta.

As for Ynoa, the talented right-hander flashed exciting upside during the 2021 season with the Braves, when he pitched to a 4.05 ERA in 91 innings of work and struck out 26.9% of batters faced. Unfortunately, the right-hander has pitched just 6 2/3 innings of work in the majors since then and last appeared at the highest level in 2022 due to a number of injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Now it appears Ynoa is headed back to the shelf for what figures to be another extended absence, as the stress reaction in his right elbow will sideline him for at least the next two months.

Tromp, 29 in March, has received limited big league opportunities in each of the past four years. He was with the Giants in 2020 and 2021 then Atlanta in the past two years, getting into a combined 40 games over that four-year span. He has hit .222/.225/.414 in his 102 career plate appearances. He spent most of 2023 on optional assignment, getting into 65 games at that level, hitting 10 home runs and walking in 16% of his plate appearances. His overall batting line of .210/.336/.384 was still subpar, translating to a wRC+ of 84.

Atlanta non-tendered Tromp last week even though he wasn’t yet arbitration eligible. By doing so, they made him a free agent without exposing him to waivers, which allowed them to quickly re-sign him this week in a non-roster capacity. They have Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud set to serve as the major league catching duo but those are now the only two backstops on the roster. Tromp will give them a bit of depth in Triple-A to be called upon if an injury creates a need. If he gets added back to the roster next year, he still has one option year remaining.

Williams, 27, is an infielder that Atlanta claimed from the Dodgers in June. He has 148 games of major league experience dating back to 2021, bouncing to the Phillies, Giants and Marlins before getting to the Dodgers and Atlanta. He’s hit just .225/.281/.295 in the majors but has at least provided defensive versatility, playing every position except catcher. He’s also stolen 17 bases in 23 attempts.

Atlanta has a great lineup already but only has 11 hitters on the 40-man roster right now, leaving their bench and position player depth pretty open. Williams can give them some cover all over the diamond without taking up a roster spot for the time being. If added back onto the roster during the upcoming season, he still has an option and can therefore be shuttled to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

Holmes, 28 in March, was a first round pick of the Dodgers in 2014 but has yet to make his major league debut. He was with Gwinnett on a minor league deal in 2023 and tossed 61 relief innings with a 3.54 earned run average, 28.7% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. If added to the roster at any point next year, he’ll be out of options since he spent 2019-2021 on the A’s roster and burned through his option years.

Holmes was the 22nd overall pick of the 2014 draft, and a regular on top-100 prospect lists for his first few minor league seasons.  Originally selected by the Dodgers, he was dealt to Oakland as part of a deadline-day swap in 2016, as the A’s picked up Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Jharel Cotton from Los Angeles in exchange for Josh Reddick and Rich Hill.

Arguably the best prospect of that three-player package at the time, Holmes has yet to reach the majors due to a lot of inconsistent performances down on the farm.  Holmes has a 4.43 ERA over 592 2/3 career minor league innings, including a 7.61 ERA over 71 frames at the Triple-A level.  Some shoulder problems have impacted him along the way, and Holmes was of course one of countless players whose careers were set back by the canceled 2020 minor league season.  With outright waivers now cleared, Holmes will try again in Triple-A and see if he can finally get on track.

The move opens up a spot on Oakland’s 40-man roster, which forecasts that the Athletics will be selecting at least one of their non-roster invites to the big league roster.  Eric Thames, Justin Grimm, Dany Jimenez, and Austin Pruitt are among the notable names in camp on minor league deals, and any or all have a case to break camp, so the A’s might need to carve out some more 40-man space between now and Opening Day.  Injuries could play a role, as both of Deolis Guerra and Brent Honeywell Jr. could be headed for the 60-day injured list.