Injuries have limited Marquez to five starts and just 24 innings for the Rox over the last two seasons.  The bulk of that injury layoff came in the form of Tommy John rehab, after Marquez underwent the procedure in May 2023.  He made it back to the big leagues by July of last season, but Marquez’s return lasted just a single game, and four innings in Colorado’s 8-5 win over the Mets on July 14.  Elbow inflammation soon sent Marquez to the 15-day IL after that one outing, and the stress reaction was discovered shortly thereafter.

Marquez has spent all nine of his Major League seasons with the Rockies, posting a 4.40 ERA over 996 innings from 2016-22.  The Rockies acknowledged Marquez’s durability and success at handling Coors Field with a five-year, $43MM contract extension in April 2019, with a $16MM club option for the 2024 campaign.  The option never ended up coming into play, as Marquez inked a new two-year, $20MM deal with Colorado in September 2023 that covered the 2024-25 seasons, and gave both sides a little more flexibility as Marquez recovered from his TJ surgery.

With the first season of that deal unfortunately going down as a wash, Marquez now faces extra pressure as an impending free agent.  Marquez’s first priority is just getting healthy and getting back onto a mound, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rockies make a move to lock him up on another extension if he pitches well in the early part of the season.  Despite his lengthy track record in the majors, Marquez doesn’t turn 30 years old until next month.

Any kind of rotation stability is sorely needed in Denver, both due to the infamous thin-air conditions and because of how hard the Rox have been hit by pitching injuries over the last few years.  Marquez is penciled into a rotation that also includes Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela (who also missed most of 2023-24 due to Tommy John rehab).  Between this group and some Triple-A arms nearing their big league debuts, Schmidt is hopeful the Rockies have amassed enough depth to withstand any further injuries or any struggles from the regular starters.

Some more pitching could be on the way in the form of relievers, as Schmidt indicated that the Rockies could yet add to their bullpen before Spring Training.  Diego Castillo, Jimmy Herget, Tommy Doyle, and Jake Woodford are among the pitchers with MLB experience who have been brought into the organization on minor league deals or waiver claims, and it remains to be seen if the Rockies’ pitching explorations will lead to any guaranteed contracts for bullpen help.

Infielders Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer are the only players the Rox have signed to guaranteed deals, both brought into the fold on one-year contracts.  It isn’t necessarily surprising that a team coming off 204 losses in the last two seasons isn’t aggressively spending, but the Rockies are continuing their unusual path of not entirely rebuilding, but also clearly focusing on younger talent.

Charlie Condon is one of those key building blocks for the future, and Schmidt said the team hadn’t yet decided where Charlie Condon will play in the minor leagues next season.  The third overall pick of the 2024 draft began his pro career in inauspicious fashion by hitting only .180/.248/.270 over 109 plate appearances for high-A Spokane, but Schmidt said Condon was trying to play through a bruised thumb that “he kind of didn’t tell us” about.

This injury could well explain those struggles, even though it isn’t unusual for even star prospects to face some growing pains in their first taste of professional baseball.  Condon was also moving right into his pro career on the heels of 60 games with Georgia during the 2024 NCAA season, with Condon crushing college pitching to the tune of a .433/.556/1.009 slash line and 37 homers over 304 PA.  In recently-released top-100 lists, MLB Pipeline rated Condon as the 29th-best prospect in the sport, and Baseball America ranked him 42nd.

Peralta, 23, was just acquired from the Pirates last month in the Jalen Beeks trade. The younger brother of Brewers ace Freddy Peralta, Luis signed with the Pirates out of the Dominican Republic in 2017. He came up as a starter but has been moved into a relief role this year, with some encouraging results.

He has pitched at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A this year between his two organizations. Between all those different stops, he has logged 47 2/3 innings while only allowing five earned runs for a tiny ERA of 0.94. His 11.2% walk rate in that time is a bit high but he’s worked around that by striking out 40.1% of batters that have stepped to the plate.

He was going to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and was likely going to get a roster spot in a few months’ time anyway, so the Rockies are jumping the gun and adding him now, which will allow them to get a look at him against major league hitters for a few weeks.

Gordon had been working out of the club’s rotation, so they will now have a hole there behind Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber and Bradley Blalock. Right-hander Ryan Feltner landed on the 15-day IL on August 8 due to a right shoulder strain but could perhaps be coming back. Patrick Lyons of Just Baseball relayed on X last week that Feltner’s MRI came back clean and he could be back after something close to a minimal stint. He made a rehab appearance for Triple-A Albuquerque on Wednesday.

As for Marquez, it was reported a couple of weeks ago that he won’t be coming back this year due to some elbow inflammation, so this transfer to the 60-day IL was an inevitable formality. He’ll be on the 60-day IL for the rest of the year but will need to be reinstated in the days following the World Series, as the IL goes away until Spring Training.

2024 will ultimately go down as a mostly lost season for the righty. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and was able to come off the injured list in July. He made just one start, allowing three earned runs in four innings, before going back on the IL.

Today’s news is somewhat positive in the sense that the righty’s UCL is not affected and he can have a normal offseason in preparation for 2025. But it’s also less than ideal for him to be going into next year with just four innings thrown this year. Ideally, he would have had the last couple of months of the schedule to compile a decent workload to build off next year, but that won’t be possible now.

The Colorado rotation has been an issue this year, to put it mildly. The club’s starters have a collective 5.45 earned run average, worst in the majors. That’s not necessarily a surprise, between the usual challenges of pitching at Coors Field and the injury issues the club has had. In addition to Márquez, Antonio Senzatela has also missed the entire season thus far due to his own Tommy John surgery recovery. He’s slated to start a rehab assignment tonight. Kyle Freeland also missed a couple of months due to an elbow strain and has only made 12 starts this year.

With Márquez unable to come back this year, the group is unlikely to get back on track anytime soon. Just today, another domino fell as Ryan Feltner was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder strain, though it’s not yet known exactly how much time the club is expecting him to miss.

It’s theoretically possible to imagine the group being in better shape next year with with full and healthy seasons from Márquez, Senzatela and Freeland. The Rockies signed all three of those pitchers to extensions as they envisioned that trio as their rotation core. Márquez was in the final season of his deal last year when he went under the knife, but he and the club subsequently reunited on a second extension that goes through 2025.

The extended absence from Márquez complicates things somewhat. He only tossed 20 innings last year, meaning he’ll be going into 2025 with just 24 innings thrown in the previous two seasons. That could lead to tricky questions about how to handle his workload next year. He did toss 975 1/3 innings from 2017 to 2022 with a 4.38 ERA, tossing between 162 and 196 innings in each full season of that stretch as well as 81 2/3 frames in the shortened 2020 campaign, but it’s fair to wonder if his elbow will allow him to simply jump back to that level.

There are other questions to be answered as well. As mentioned, Senzatela will be rehabbing and could get some major league starts under his belt before the season ends. Freeland has been off the IL for about six weeks now and seems healthy apart from a blister he’s been dealing with lately, but he could finish with an ERA above 5.00 for the second straight season. Though to be fair, his .348 BABIP and 62.4% strand rate might be clouding things this year. His 4.13 FIP and 4.24 SIERA suggest a sunnier outlook.

Cal Quantrill figures to be in the mix since he has one more arbitration season left and wasn’t traded prior to the deadline. He has a 4.56 ERA over his 23 starts this year. Feltner is having a decent season and will be part of the calculus as well, as long as this shoulder injury doesn’t linger into next year. His even 5.00 ERA doesn’t look great but his .321 BABIP and and 62.9% strand rate are both on the unlucky side. His 20.1% strikeout rate is a bit low but his 7.3% walk rate and 45.4% ground ball rate are both solid, which is why he has a 4.30 FIP and 4.26 SIERA. Austin Gomber, like Quantrill, can be retained for one more arbitration season and is having decent campaign with a 4.66 ERA in 21 starts.

Though this year has been rough, the club arguably has six decent starters on hand for its 2025 rotation between Márquez, Senzatela, Freeland, Quantrill, Gomber and Feltner. Baseball rarely allows clubs to follow a script, however, and the picture will undoubtedly change between now and then. The latest on Márquez already puts a bit of a wrench in their plans, though ideally things will progress well after his upcoming shutdown period.

Márquez heads back to the shelf one week after making his return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander only made one start, tossing four innings of three-run ball against the Mets the day before the All-Star Break. A quick return to the injured list with another elbow issue is cause for concern, but it seems the Rox expect to avoid the worst. Manager Bud Black told reporters that the team hopes to have Márquez back within a couple weeks (link via Kyle Newman of the Denver Post).

Colorado is well out of playoff contention, so the priority is making sure Márquez gets through the ’24 campaign healthy. The Rockies signed the Venezuelan hurler to a two-year, $20MM contract last September. Márquez is making $10MM annually on a deal that was mostly geared towards 2025. Colorado knew that the former All-Star would miss a good chunk of this season as he finished his rehab. This season is largely about building his innings count so he can hold up over a full schedule next year.

This bout of elbow inflammation represents an obvious setback, although it’s possible Márquez returns in August and can pitch for a few weeks down the stretch. There was never much of an expectation that Colorado would trade the 29-year-old this closely removed from surgery. Today’s IL placement seemingly slams that door shut.

Austin Gomber takes the ball tonight against the Red Sox in the series opener at Coors Field. Márquez had been slated to go on Tuesday. Newman writes that left-hander Ty Blach is likely to get the start instead. Blach has started nine of 16 appearances on the season, turning in a 5.46 ERA through 59 1/3 innings. He could step into the starting five behind Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland, Gomber and Ryan Feltner. The Rockies are reportedly willing to consider trade offers on Quantrill and Gomber, potentially opening up another rotation spot or two in the next week.

July 13: The Rockies are set to activate right-hander German Marquez from the 60-day injured list tomorrow, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Mike Fitzpatrick of The Denver Post) last night. Colorado’s 40-man roster currently stands at 39, meaning the club will only need to make a corresponding active roster move to activate Marquez unless they add another player to the 40-man prior to activating him.

Marquez, 29, made it just four starts into the 2023 season before requiring Tommy John surgery in early May of last year. At the time, the former All Star was a pending free agent, but the sides hammered out a two-year, $20MM extension last September that has allowed Marquez to complete his rehab in a familiar organization and re-establish his value ahead of free agency, which now looms after the 2025 season.

For the Rockies, the move allowed them to retain a player who has shown the rare ability to pitch well while calling Coors Field home. From 2018 to 2021, Marquez posted a 4.22 ERA that was 17% better than average by ERA+ and an even stronger 3.70 FIP across 106 starts for the Rockies. That’s the version of Marquez the club surely hopes they’ll be adding back to their rotation tomorrow, although it’s worth noting that the righty’s 2022 season demonstrated some cause for concern as he posted an eye-popping 6.70 ERA in 16 starts at Coors despite an excellent 3.34 ERA in 15 starts on the road.

Marquez is slated to take the ball tomorrow in a start against the Mets in New York, and is expected to throw between 75 and 90 pitches in his return to the mound. The Rockies, with a dismal 33-62 record this season, will not be factoring into the postseason picture in 2024 regardless of how well the right-hander performs in his return to action. With that being said, it’s at least feasible that a strong start from the righty over the next few weeks could impact the club’s thinking ahead of the trade deadline on July 30. If Marquez can return to the club’s rotation looking healthy and effective, it would add a quality starter to a rotation that could make the club more comfortable dealing away pieces from its rotation.

Earlier this summer, the Rockies were reportedly listening on offers for right-hander Cal Quantrill and lefty Austin Gomber while also receiving interest in righty Ryan Feltner. Quantrill has pitched to solid results in his first season with Colorado, posting 4.13 ERA (110 ERA+) in 19 starts despite a lackluster 4.77 FIP thanks in part to a career-best 46.4% groundball rate. Gomber, meanwhile, has posted a 4.61 ERA that’s essentially league average (99 ERA+) after adjusting for park factors. Feltner has been the least impressive of the three in terms of on-field results with a lackluster 5.02 ERA, although more advanced metrics such as SIERA (4.13) and xERA (4.04) look much more favorably upon him thanks to his microscopic 6.5% walk rate and an ability to limit hard contact.

Dealing any of those controllable players would be tough for a rotation that already has the league’s worst ERA, but if Marquez can prove himself capable of returning to the top of the club’s rotation that would go a long way to helping round out a rotation that already parted ways with right-hander Dakota Hudson earlier this month.

“I know [my talent] is still in there. There are flashes of it, and I can’t wait to get out there and play again,” Bryant told Saunders.

It’s an open question whether Bryant will eventually get healthy enough to rediscover the talent that convinced the Rockies to invest $182MM in him just over two years ago, but it’s hard to deny how valuable such an outcome would be for Colorado. The second-overall pick in the 2013 draft, Bryant’s career kicked off with a bang when he slashed an excellent .284/.377/.522 in 306 games as the Cubs’ starting third baseman over his first two years in the big leagues. Those seasons saw him earn two All Star appearances, a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP award, and hoist the first World Series trophy on the north side of Chicago in more than a century. Bryant would go on to finish seventh in NL MVP voting the following year and make two more All Star appearances throughout his time with the club before wrapping up his Cubs career with a .279/.378/.508 slash line across 833 games.

That incredible talent has not been on display in Colorado, but it appears he could return to action and resume his attempts to rediscover his power stroke in the near future. MLB.com’s Injury Tracker indicates that Bryant is on track to make a relatively quick return to the Rockies, with manager Bud Black telling reporters yesterday that Bryant is slated to begin a rehab assignment later this week and could return to the big league club as soon as May 17 in San Francisco. That the 32-year-old is nearing a return hardly means his injury woes are entirely behind him. Bryant told Saunders that the disc problems and severe arthritis he’s dealing with will be an issue throughout the remainder of his playing career. Even so, the former MVP went on to note that he’s currently feeling “the best [he’s] felt in a long time” in terms of his health.

Bryant isn’t the only player making his way toward a return for the Rockies, as Black also told reporters (including Luke Zahlman of the Denver Gazette) that Bryant will be joined in Albuquerque by outfielder Nolan Jones. Jones, who impressed with a 135 wRC+ in his first season with the Rockies last year but struggled badly in 26 games this season before hitting the injured list, is said by Black to be “a couple days” behind Bryant but nonetheless figures to start a rehab assignment of his own in the near future with a return by the end of the month on the table.

Further away from big league action is right-hander German Marquez, who underwent Tommy John surgery a year ago today. Black told reporters (including Zahlman) that Marquez is making progress in his rehab and has already thrown four innings in extended Spring Training and a scoreless frame in the Arizona Complex League. That being said, the right-hander figures to require a lengthy rehab assignment once he’s ready to begin starting games, with Black suggesting that the righty will likely need five or six rehab outings before he can return to the big league mound. Marquez returning in time to pitch the second half for Colorado would be a huge boost to the club’s rotation, which currently ranks dead last in the majors with a 5.91 ERA.

Rockies GM Bill Schmidt provided some updates (to Patrick Lyons and other reporters) on the two right-handers at the team’s Fan Fest event this weekend.  The club is hopeful Marquez can return sometime after the All-Star break, which fits the normal TJ recovery timeline given that Marquez underwent his procedure last May.

Unfortunately, that same timeline puts Senzatela’s entire 2024 season in doubt.  Senzatela had his surgery in July, and thus Schmidt doesn’t “anticipate [him] up here” on Colorado’s active roster.  If all goes well, Senzatela will be able to pitch for the Rockies’ Triple-A team near the end of the minor league season, with an eye towards the righty banking some innings and gaining some peace of mind ahead of a more normal offseason.

Colorado has invested heavily in both pitchers as part of its eternal search for rotation stability.  Marquez signed a five-year, $43MM extension that covered the 2019-23 seasons, and also included a $16MM club option for 2024.  Rather than buy out that option for $2.5MM in the wake of Marquez’s TJ surgery, the Rox instead worked out a new two-year extension that will pay Marquez $20MM over the next two seasons, with another $10MM available in bonuses based on roster time and innings pitched.

Senzatela inked a five-year, $50.5MM extension in October 2021 that also included a club option ($14MM in 2027).  Senzatela was already under arbitration control through 2023, so had that deal not been signed, the righty might’ve been in free agency right now and facing an uncertain near future as he recovered from his surgery.  The Rockies haven’t gotten much return on their investment since Senzatela has thrown only 100 innings over the last two seasons — his 2022 campaign was also cut short by a torn ACL.

Since it remains to be seen how much Marquez or Senzatela will factor into the 2024 season, the Rockies face an even greater pressure to fill innings.  The Rox signed Dakota Hudson and acquired Cal Quantrill in a trade with the Guardians, but they’ll also be relying on in-house options to contribute, none moreso than de facto staff ace Kyle Freeland.  However, it has been some time since Freeland has looked like a true frontline pitcher — after finishing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018, the southpaw has battled injuries while posting a 4.96 ERA over 626 innings from 2019-23.

That includes a 5.03 ERA in 155 2/3 frames last season, as Freeland missed time with a separated shoulder and then an oblique strain that ultimately ended his season.  The good news is that Freeland is now feeling recovered from more than just his 2023 injury woes.

“I told [manager Bud Black] and a couple of our other coaches how my arm and my body really hasn’t felt this good since 2021,” Freeland told reporters at Fan Fest, including Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette.  “It’s very exciting for me.  We discussed my velocity last year, and one thing I really tried to work on this offseason is trying to get that back — doing stuff for my shoulder and stuff like that to make sure that I’m as healthy as possible going into camp.”

Kris Bryant is looking to avoid the injured list and tally his first full season in a Colorado uniform.  Since signing his seven-year, $182MM contract during the 2021-22 offseason, Bryant has played in just 122 of 324 games due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot, a bruised left heel, and a fractured finger.

“I feel fortunate that I’m healthy right now and the offseason has been great,” Bryant told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders.  In terms of his frustration over the last two seasons, Bryant said that “when I’m not performing to my standard it eats at me….When you play this game this long, certain things are going to happen, but I know that there are much better days ahead in my future.”

It remains to be seen if Bryant can ever regain his old MVP form, and while Bryant’s numbers haven’t been good over the last two years, the injuries provide a natural context for his struggles.  Bryant hit .306/.376/.475 over 181 plate appearances in 2022, but then only .233/.313/.367 in 335 PA last season.  Looking ahead to 2024, the Rockies intend to use Bryant primarily as a first baseman in order to help keep him healthy, but he’ll also get some work as a DH and right fielder.  Bryant might possibly also see the odd game in left field when a left-hander is on the mound, but Nolan Jones is slated to take the bulk of work as Colorado’s regular left fielder.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

• Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Catcher (0:50)
• Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: First Base (4:40)
• Rockies Extend Germán Márquez (7:00)
• Walker Buehler won’t return as the rotation challenges continue for the Dodgers (12:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

• What can the Tigers do about Spencer Turnbull? (16:45)
• Will the Athletics change their spending habits after they move to Las Vegas? (22:00)
• Why is the American League Central always so bad and will that ever change? (25:45)

Check out our past episodes!

• Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender – listen here
• MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire – listen here
• The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here

The deal also contains up to $10MM in additional incentives. Márquez would reportedly receive $2MM bonuses for spending 30 and 60 days on the MLB roster during the 2025 season. He’d trigger additional $2MM bonuses at each of 140, 150, and 160 innings pitched. The contract also contains a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

“Germán has been an integral part of the Rockies organization both on and off the field since his first Major League season in 2016.” Rockies senior vice president and general manager Bill Schmidt said in the team’s press release. “We are excited to secure Germán’s future in Denver with this extension and can’t wait to see him back out on the mound.”

The 2023 season was the last guaranteed year on Márquez’s contract. Colorado had a $16MM option for next season, though they were likely to opt for a $2.5MM buyout. Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery in May, meaning he won’t be back until mid-2024 at the earliest. Now, he will remain with the Rockies for at least two more years, allowing him to rehab with an eye towards late next season and beyond.

Márquez has been in the Rockies organization since 2016, when the team acquired him in a trade with the Rays. He made his MLB debut that September and pitched his first full season the following year, posting a 4.39 ERA in 162 innings pitched en route to a fifth-place finish for NL Rookie of the Year. Over the next four seasons, he was one of the most durable pitchers in the league. From 2017-22, only three pitchers made more starts than Márquez: Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin, and Aaron Nola. Prior to this season, he had spent only one stint on the injured list in his big league career.

If Márquez suffers no setbacks and quickly shakes off the rust in his return, the terms of the extension seem perfectly reasonable. Colorado is offering more up-front security than Márquez would’ve gotten had they bought him out, while the $10MM salary for the ’25 campaign could be strong value for the club if Márquez recaptures his pre-surgery form.

Colorado now has three veteran starters under contract through 2025. Kyle Freeland is signed through 2026, with a vesting option for 2027. Meanwhile, Antonio Senzatela is signed through 2026 with a team option for 2027. Senzatela recently underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own. The Rockies will hope to have Márquez and Senzatela back to anchor the rotation alongside Freeland at some point in 2024.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams first reported Márquez was signing a two-year, $20MM guarantee with $10MM in incentives. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported the specific incentive structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

We’ll go division by division and open things in the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Andrew Chafin: $7.25MM club option ($750K buyout)

Chafin lingered in free agency over the winter after opting out of his deal with the Tigers. The seeming lack of market interest was perplexing given the lefty reliever’s consistent effectiveness over the past few seasons. He’s carried that over into his second stint in the desert. Through 20 1/3 innings, Chafin owns a 3.10 ERA. He’s punched out 36% of opposing hitters on a huge 16.2% swinging strike percentage, both of which would be career-high marks. He’s not a prototypical fireballing reliever but he’s demonstrated he’s capable of missing bats and thriving in high-leverage situations for the past few years. The $6.5MM net decision on next year’s option looks more than reasonable if he keeps this up.

• Zach Davies: $5.5MM mutual option ($300K buyout, rises to $500K with 16+ starts)

Davies has been limited to three starts by a left oblique strain. He has allowed eight runs with a modest 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 2/3 innings. There’s not much to go on yet in terms of 2023 performance but Davies looked like a borderline fifth starter the previous two years. The Diamondbacks have enough young pitching they seem likelier to buy him out unless the soft-tossing righty rediscovers his 2019-20 form for the stretch run.

• Miguel Castro: $5MM option vests with 60+ appearances; would become $6MM player option with 40+ games finished (no buyout)

Castro has already pitched 26 times since signing with Arizona over the winter. He’s on pace to easily surpass the 60-appearance threshold needed to vest next year’s $5MM option if he can avoid the injured list. It could be a closer call as to whether he can turn that guaranteed $5MM salary into a $6MM player option; Castro has finished 12 games thus far, putting him just off the 40-game pace he’d need to do so. (He’s on pace for 36 games finished). Castro has been effective — a 2.22 ERA with roughly average strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers through 24 1/3 innings — so vesting the player option and retesting the market isn’t out of the question.

• Mark Melancon: $5MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Melancon struggled to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings during his first season in Arizona. He hasn’t pitched this year on account of a Spring Training shoulder strain. Melancon might return in the second half but this is trending towards the team buying him out.

Colorado Rockies

• Germán Márquez: $16MM team option ($2.5MM buyout)

Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’ll miss the majority of next season as he rehabs. A healthy Márquez would’ve made this an easy call for the Rockies to exercise but the procedure means they’ll buy him out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rox try to bring him back on a lesser salary or a multi-year deal with an eye towards 2025.

• Brad Hand: $7MM team option ($500K buyout)

Hand’s peripherals had fallen back between 2021-22 from his All-Star peak. He’s continued to keep runs off the board and seen a notable bounceback in his strikeout rate since a Spring Training deal with Colorado. Hand owns a 3.20 ERA through 19 2/3 frames while striking out 33.7% of batters faced on a decent 11.6% swinging strike percentage. The veteran southpaw has dominated left-handed hitters and is yet to allow a home run this season. If he maintains this form, he’ll be one of the top reliever trade candidates this summer. If Colorado hangs onto him, they could be faced with an interesting decision as to whether to keep him around for an extra $6.5MM next winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Max Muncy: $10MM club option (no buyout)

The Dodgers signed Muncy to a $13.5MM deal last summer even as he was amidst his worst season since landing in L.A. They’ve been rewarded with a massive bounceback showing. Muncy is tied for second in the majors with 17 home runs. He’s only hitting .208 but carrying a strong .340 on-base percentage thanks to an elite 15.8% walk rate. The $10MM price point would be an easy decision for the Dodgers if Muncy keeps up anything approaching this pace.

• Daniel Hudson: $6.5MM team option (no buyout)

Los Angeles brought Hudson back last summer on the heels of a season-ending ACL tear. The veteran reliever hasn’t recovered as quickly from that procedure as he’d hoped. Hudson hasn’t pitched yet this season. He told reporters last night he’ll throw a bullpen session this week but is without a timeline for a return to game action (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). It remains to be seen how he’ll look when he takes the mound.

• Alex Reyes: $3MM team option with escalators ($100K buyout)

The Dodgers took a $1.1MM flier on Reyes after he lost the 2022 season to shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day injured list and not expected to be a factor until around the All-Star Break. This one remains to be determined based on his post-rehab form.

• Blake Treinen (option value between $1-7MM dependent on time spent on IL)

Treinen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder last November. He won’t pitch much, if at all, this season. Treinen’s contract contains an option with a floating value between $1MM and $7MM depending on how much time he spends on the injured list and the issue that puts him on the shelf. Its precise value is yet to be determined, but MLBTR has confirmed it’ll land towards the lower end of that range given Treinen’s surgery.

San Diego Padres

• Nick Martinez: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez has taken on a similar swing role as he served during his first year in San Diego. The right-hander started his first four outings and pitched reasonably well. He was nevertheless bumped back into relief thereafter. For the second consecutive season, Martinez has proven a key multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. He’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a quality 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 relief innings, holding opponents to a pitiful .240/.278/.267 batting line.

There’s little question of Martinez’s effectiveness in a relief role, though a $16MM average annual value could be pricy if the organization isn’t planning on giving him another look out of the rotation. Perhaps Martinez’s production over the final four months makes this a clearer decision for San Diego by season’s end. As of now, it looks like a borderline call — not too dissimilar from Martinez’s question of whether to opt out of three years and $18MM last winter. The Padres liked him enough to subsequently re-sign him to a $26MM guarantee with the complex option structure.

• Michael Wacha: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha lingered in free agency last winter. Clubs seemed reluctant to buy into his solid results for the Red Sox, a reflection of middling strikeout and ground-ball numbers. Since landing in San Diego, he’s basically repeating last year’s script. The run prevention is excellent; he’s allowed a 3.45 ERA through 57 1/3 innings over ten starts. Wacha is again throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board despite roughly average strikeout and swinging strike rates.

Maintaining a mid-3.00s ERA for a second straight season might build confidence in his ability to outperform ERA estimators that suggest he’s more of a solid #4 starter than a mid-rotation arm. That said, Wacha doesn’t look all that different now than he did three months ago, when he signed a four-year guarantee with a $6.5MM average annual value. A jump to the $16MM per-year range could be a tougher sell for San Diego, although there’s little doubt Wacha would opt out of the final three years and $18.5MM on his contract if he keeps pitching like this and the Padres decline their end.

San Francisco Giants

• Alex Cobb: $10MM team option ($2MM buyout)

Cobb has pitched well since signing a two-year deal with San Francisco over the 2021-22 offseason. He carries a 3.05 ERA through his first 11 starts this year. Cobb’s 60.6% ground-ball rate is stellar and he’s posted average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 6.7%, respectively). An $8MM net decision would be an easy call for the Giants to exercise if Cobb maintains this pace. He’s dealt with injuries in the past but managed 149 2/3 innings over 28 starts last year and has avoided the IL in 2023.

All stats through play Monday.

MAY 12: Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela was diagnosed with a sprain in his throwing elbow, club officials informed reporters (relayed by Thomas Harding of MLB.com). The issue won’t require surgery, but manager Bud Black indicated the right-hander will be shut down from throwing for three weeks.

That makes a trip to the 15-day injured list inevitable. It’s quite possible Senzatela finds himself on the 60-day IL, as he’ll have to build back up via a throwing program following his three-week shutdown period. Senzatela told Harding he expects to be sidelined for a minimum of two months, making it unlikely he’s back at Coors Field before the All-Star Break.

While it’s fortunate he won’t go under the knife, the 28-year-old is in for an extended injury absence for a second straight season. Senzatela’s 2022 campaign was cut short in August when he tore the ACL in his left knee. The recovery period extended into this year and kept him from making his season debut until last Friday. Two starts later, Senzatela departed Wednesday’s contest with forearm tightness.

He’s logged just 7 2/3 innings on the season. The Venezuelan-born hurler had a tough ’22 campaign even before the knee injury, allowing a 5.07 ERA over 92 1/3 frames. Senzatela had managed a respectable 4.11 ERA with a strong 51.1% grounder rate over the preceding two seasons. In October 2021, the Rockies signed him to a $50.5MM extension to potentially buy out four free agent years. They haven’t gotten much return on that investment so far.

It’s the second extended injury absence for a key Colorado starter. The Rox already lost Germán Márquez for the season when it was announced he’d require Tommy John surgery. Black told reporters that Márquez underwent that procedure today (via Kyle Newman of the Denver Post). He’ll be out well into 2024 and may have thrown his final pitch as a Rockie, as the guaranteed portion of his contract is up after this season. Colorado holds a $16MM option for next season but figures to take a $2.5MM buyout instead.

Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner have each taken seven-plus turns through the rotation. Only Freeland has pitched particularly well. Colorado released the struggling José Ureña just four starts into the year, while each of Márquez, Senzatela and Noah Davis (elbow inflammation) are unavailable due to injury. The Rockies have turned to offseason trade pickup Connor Seabold for a couple outings and claimed veteran hurler Chase Anderson off waivers from the Rays this morning.

Needless to say, it’s a very unfortunate piece of news for both the pitcher and the team. Márquez has been the club’s best pitcher in recent years, posting a 4.41 ERA in 1,016 career innings. Given that he plays his home games at the hitter haven of Coors Field, it’s fair to assume that ERA doesn’t truly reflect his skill level. His 4.02 FIP and 3.96 SIERA perhaps offer a better indication of the level of production he’s had thus far.

This year, he made just three starts before landing on the injured list with a forearm strain, though an MRI revealed no structural damage and he was back with the club after a brief absence. However, in his first outing off the IL, he walked off the field after 3 2/3 innings in obvious distress. The update after the game was that the damage was to his triceps and not his elbow, which seemed encouraging. But when he was put back on the IL a couple days later, he expressed worry that Tommy John surgery would eventually be required, which now seems to have come to fruition.

A club losing their best pitcher is bad news at any time, but it’s especially rough for a Colorado club that’s out to a 9-20 start this year. Few observers were predicting them to contend this year and they seem to be progressing about as expected. The absence of Márquez will not only decrease their chances of getting back into the playoff race but also deprive the club of arguably their best summer trade candidate.

Back in 2019, the Rockies and Márquez agreed to a $43MM contract extension that runs through 2023, though there’s a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $2.5MM buyout. The Rockies are notoriously reticent to move their players even when it makes logical sense to do so, but they would have likely at least considered a Márquez trade this summer, given the challenges they would have faced in turning a struggling team into a contender during his window of control.

Given the standard 14 to 18 months of recovery required after TJS, Márquez will be out of action for the remainder of this season and at least the first half of 2024 as well. That makes it likely that the Rockies will take the $2.5MM buyout instead of the $16MM option next year, which will send Márquez to the open market, though the two sides could also work out another extension if they so wish. In the event that he does wind up a free agent this winter, he’ll be looking to market himself at a time when he’s still recovering and won’t be available immediately.

For now, the Rockies will have to turn their attention to getting through this year. Márquez is already on the injured list, alongside starters like Antonio Senzatela, Noah Davis and Ryan Rolison. Senzatela has been on the IL all season after suffering a torn ACL last year but he seems to be nearing a return. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post relays that the righty is in the clubhouse and is likely to be activated and start a game this weekend.

He’ll join Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner in the rotation, which will still leave the club shorthanded. Connor Seabold tossed 67 pitches in a long relief outing on Saturday and could perhaps take a turn. Peter Lambert is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t thrown more than three innings in any of his minor league starts so far this year.

Perhaps Davis could return sooner rather than later, as he tells Saunders that he would encouraged by his tests and doesn’t think it’s a major injury. But there’s still no firm timeline and he won’t be eligible to be reinstated for a couple of weeks even if the issue is minor.

2:20pm: The Rockies announced that right-hander Germán Márquez has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 27, due to right elbow inflammation. Fellow righty Connor Seabold has been recalled in a corresponding move.

It’s been a frustrating season for Marquez, who made three starts before going on the injured list with a forearm strain. It seemed as though he avoided a significant absence when he returned this week and took the ball for Wednesday’s game. Unfortunately, he was removed after calling the trainers to the mound and revealed after the game that he had soreness in his triceps. He was set to get an MRI in Denver yesterday and it seems there’s enough concern to put him on the shelf for at least a couple weeks.

It’s still not known exactly how much time he’s expected to miss, but it’s a blow to the Colorado rotation nonetheless. Márquez is the club’s best starting pitcher, having a 4.41 ERA through 176 appearances. Since he plays his home games at Coors Field, ERA estimators tend to agree that he deserves better, with his career FIP at 4.02 and his SIERA at 3.96. He has a 22.9% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 48.5% ground ball rate.

Any club would prefer to avoid losing its best starter, of course, but the Rockies will be especially challenged since their rotation hasn’t been a strong suit for them. Kyle Freeland, Noah Davis, Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner are the remaining four in the club’s rotation, with Seabold now potentially joining them or perhaps serving a long relief role of the bullpen. He has 12 major league appearances under his belt but with an 8.81 ERA thus far.

Márquez is in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed with the Rockies back in 2019. The club will have a $13.5MM decision to make on him at the end of the campaign, as they can trigger a $16MM option for 2024 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If his injury ends up being minor, then it should be a pretty easy call to keep him around for one more year at that price, but a more significant ailment could perhaps make it a bit trickier.

2:10pm: Rockies’ right-hander Germán Márquez departed today’s game, with Thomas Harding of MLB.com among those to relay the details. Márquez was visibly distraught on the mound, leading to a visit from the training staff and Márquez departing without hesitation after having thrown 58 pitches.

A pitcher leaving a game as a precautionary measure is quite common, but this instance is noteworthy on a few fronts. For one thing, Márquez just came off the injured list today, having spent the past 15 days there for forearm discomfort. It appeared he avoided significant injury based on his minimal absence, but it now seems possible the injury has been re-aggravated or was perhaps more serious than previously thought.

This is all still speculative at this point, but it would be a blow to the Rockies if Márquez ends up needing to miss more time as he’s been their best starting pitcher for the past few years. In just over 1,000 career innings coming into today, he had a 4.40 career ERA, no small feat for a pitcher who throws half of his innings at Coors Field. He’s struck out 22.9% of batters faced, walked just 7% and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.6% clip.

No team wants to lose its best starter for any amount of time but that’s especially true for a Colorado club that hasn’t had strong rotations in recent years. Right now, Kyle Freeland has a serviceable 4.28 ERA but with his strikeout rate down at 15.9%, a few ticks below his career norm. Austin Gomber has a 9.28 ERA on the campaign. Ryan Feltner has a 4.68 ERA despite a 12.7% walk rate. Noah Davis has a tiny 0.93 ERA this year but in just two starts and only one inning of prior major league experience. José Ureña was sitting on 9.82 before he was designated for assignment to make room on the roster for the return of Marquez.

If Márquez needs to miss some time, they have Connor Seabold and Peter Lambert on the 40-man roster, both of whom have career ERAs north of 7.00 in the big leagues and are currently above 5.00 in Triple-A this year. Antonio Senzatela will be an option eventually but is still working his way back from last year’s torn ACL. He recently pitched in extended Spring Training but is likely still a few weeks away at least.

For Márquez personally, he’s in the final guaranteed season of the $43MM extension he signed with the club in April of 2019, making $15MM this year. The club has a $16MM option for 2024 that comes with a $2.5MM buyout, making it a net $13.5MM decision. It would be a fairly easy decision for them to trigger that and keep Márquez around for his age-29 season if he were healthy, though that calculus could change if he needed to miss significant time.

The Rockies are currently 8-17 and generally aren’t expected to be in contention this summer. That would theoretically make Márquez a trade candidate, given the looming end of his contract. However, the Rockies have often been surprisingly unwilling to part with their players in deadline deals, even when it makes speculative sense. Recent years have seen them cling to players like Trevor Story, Jon Gray and Daniel Bard even when outside observers thought a trade could be on the table.

It remains to be seen how long Marquez might be sidelined, as even with a minor forearm issue, the Rox aren’t going to rush the hurler back into action.  Marquez’s first three starts in the year resulted in a 4.41 ERA over 16 1/3 innings, and while it’s a small sample size, early points of interest include some improved control (a very good 3.2% walk rate) and a marked increase in Marquez’s usage of his slider.  The righty is still allowing a lot of hard contact and is striking out batters at a subpar rate, but that was also often the case for Marquez in his better seasons.

Randal Grichuk and Daniel Bard both started rehab assignments at Triple-A today, after first working in games during extended Spring Training.  Neither player has yet made their season debut — Grichuk underwent surgery in early February to correct a bilateral sports hernia, while Bard was placed on the 15-day IL just prior to Opening Day due to anxiety issues.  Grichuk naturally has a more set recovery timeline, as he was initially expected to be back by mid-April, and it looks like he’ll return to Colorado’s lineup only slightly after that projected date.  Bard’s timeline is more fluid due to the uncertainty of anxiety issues, but the start of a rehab assignment indicates that he might be closing in on a return to the Rockies’ bullpen.

Antonio Senzatela’s return is still a ways away, as the righty is recovering from a torn ACL suffered last August.  However, Senzatela did pitch two innings in an extended Spring Training game on Friday, and he’ll pitch in another extended camp game on Tuesday.  Depending on how Senzatela comes out of Tuesday’s outing, the Rockies might then set a course for his rehab plan.  The initial expectation was that Senzatela might be back in the majors by May, and Colorado starting the season with Senzatela on the 15-day IL (instead of the 60-day IL) is indicative of their hope that the right-hander don’t miss too much more time.