At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.

The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.

Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.

Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)

That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.

Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ’Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.

Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.

At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”

The 31-year-old southpaw was dominant as ever for Houston last season. In 28 starts for the club, Valdez posted an excellent 2.91 ERA in 176 1/3 innings of work with a 3.25 FIP while striking out 24% of opponents and walking just 7.8%. Perhaps most impressively, Valdez generated an excellent 60.6% groundball rate that led all qualified major league hurlers this year. While Valdez was snubbed from making his third career All-Star appearance, the lefty finished in the top ten of AL Cy Young award voting for the third consecutive season and even earned some down-ballot consideration for the AL MVP award. That strong performance earned Valdez a deal that comes in slightly above projections ahead for his final season before he hits free agency in the fall.

If there was a downside to Valdez’s strong 2024 campaign, it was his health early in the year. The lefty missed most of April due to a bout of elbow soreness that sent him to the shelf after just two starts. While even the mildest elbow issues can cause alarm among fans due to their association with Tommy John surgery, Valdez evidently wasn’t slowed down significantly by the issue. While he made just 28 starts this year as opposed to 31 the prior two seasons, he was healthy and effective as always after returning to the mound on April 28 and showed no signs of losing steam as the year dragged on. In fact, it was just the opposite. While much of the Astros rotation was plagued with injury issues throughout the summer as they struggled to come back from an early-season deficit in the standings, Valdez was utterly dominant down the stretch with a 1.96 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break that helped Houston pull away from the Mariners in the AL West late in the second half.

In 2025, Valdez figures to be the club’s undisputed ace with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander having departed for San Francisco in free agency. He’ll lead a rotation that also figures to include Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski to open the season, with additional help from Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. expected later in the year. The losses of Verlander and outfielder Kyle Tucker along with the all-but-official departure of longtime third baseman Alex Bregman and the possibility of trading veteran reliever Ryan Pressly leave the Astros looking quite different as compared to the club that won the World Series in 2022, and with Valdez just one year from free agency things could look even more different this time next year.

Earlier this winter, there were questions over whether Valdez would remain in Houston for the 2025 or if the club would deal him ahead of his final year of team control as they had Tucker. Those rumors have died down at this point, however, and the club now plans to keep him in the fold for the coming season. It’s unclear how seriously the Astros will pursue a reunion with Valdez when he reaches free agency next season; at one point the sides engaged in extension talks but the same could be said for both Bregman and Tucker, both of whom will be playing elsewhere next season. In the meantime, the Astros have brought in Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to help bolster the offense, as they try to get back to the ALCS in 2025 after failing to make it there last year for the first time since 2016.

In response to a question regarding the availability of Valdez and Kyle Tucker, general manager Dana Brown said he was willing to “listen on all the players.” That proved a precursor for the Tucker blockbuster, which dropped a few days later and subsequently lessened the financial pressure for the Astros to move Valdez. After the Tucker deal, Brown said that he didn’t anticipate trading Valdez but would continue listening to offers.

There could be semantics at play. Few players around the league are truly untouchable. There’s presumably some point at which an offer would compel them to consider moving Valdez. For now, however, it seems they’re unwilling to do so. The two-time All-Star is set to return to the top of a rotation that’ll also include Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and likely Spencer Arrighetti. Righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. could be back by Opening Day, while J.P. France could return midseason. Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade, can compete for a rotation or multi-inning relief role.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary during his final arbitration season. Brown said last week that there’d been no recent extension talks. The southpaw is trending towards walking in free agency on a nine-figure deal. While Houston didn’t want that to happen with Tucker, they were content to allow George Springer and Carlos Correa to depart as free agents. Alex Bregman could follow suit. They’d recoup a draft choice if Valdez walks after declining a qualifying offer, which he’d surely do if he enjoys a 2025 season that’s in line with his lofty standards. That’s less valuable than what they’d receive in trade, but they’re weighing that against the desire to win the AL West again in 2025.

Brown expressed optimism that the Astros would be able to take the division even if they traded one of Tucker or Valdez. The return package reflected that balance. Cam Smith immediately became the top prospect in a weak farm system, while Isaac Paredes and Wesneski jump right onto the MLB roster.

Valdez is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing across 176 1/3 innings. That marked his fourth consecutive year with an ERA south of 3.50. Valdez has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for three seasons running. He has topped 175 frames in each of those years.

Most notably, he downplayed the chance of moving ace Framber Valdez. He indicated the front office continues to be open to offers on anyone but suggested he didn’t find it likely they’ll move the star lefty. “We’re not aggressively trying to move him, but we’ll listen,” Brown told reporters (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “If you ask me if (I) think we’re going to trade Valdez, I don’t think we’re trading Valdez. I think he’s (a) pillar, and it’s really tough to keep a rotation intact, and we really feel like he’s going to be an important one in our rotation.”

Valdez and Tucker were each thrust into trade rumors on Monday, when Brown replied to a question on their availability by saying the team would “listen on all the players.” Today’s comments don’t refute that, though the Astros seem less motivated to pursue trade talks on Valdez now that they’ve moved Tucker. One of the primary motivations for trading either player was offloading their expensive projected salaries for their final season of arbitration. The Tucker trade should save the Astros around $9MM — the difference between the projections for Tucker’s and Paredes’ salaries — and drops their projected luxury tax number to roughly $225MM (courtesy of RosterResource). That puts them around $16MM shy of the base threshold.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary. The Astros shouldn’t have as much of a desire to offload that money. Perhaps they will reconsider if they receive an offer that takes the general shape of the Tucker trade and allows them to acquire MLB help and at least one prospect of note. Brown acknowledged today that the club hasn’t had any extension talks with Valdez since last year, so they’re probably not optimistic about the chance of keeping him beyond next season. They’re still aiming to win the AL West in 2025, though, so they’re not going to move Valdez strictly for minor league talent.

Brown was also naturally asked how the Tucker trade impacts their pursuit of Alex Bregman. While there could be a few million dollars more to offer Bregman in the short term, landing Paredes gives the Astros a fallback at third base which they’d previously lacked. Brown indicated the Tucker trade doesn’t have much impact on the Bregman bidding. “Pretty much, Alex Bregman’s status [remains] the way it is,” he stated (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “Nothing has changed since the last time I’ve talked to you guys. … It’s still pretty much the same where we were Tuesday.”

There’s still room for Bregman on the roster. Paredes has played nearly 400 career innings at first base. He’s a serviceable defender at third base, but his profile is built around his bat. He wouldn’t lose a ton of value if he moves to the other side of the diamond. Houston needs first base help. They’d probably run a Jon Singleton and Zach Dezenzo platoon if the season opened today.

Brown acknowledged that the team was looking for a bat. They’re not going to find anyone of Tucker’s caliber, of course, but there’s still a decent amount of talent available in both the first base and corner outfield markets. Chandler Rome of the Athletic writes that Houston is looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder, in particular, as a direct replacement for the role Tucker filled.

The GM told Rome and other reporters that the Astros expect for Chas McCormick to open the season in right field while Jake Meyers plays center. He left the door open for a left field acquisition. Switch-hitter Jurickson Profar and lefty-swinging Max Kepler and Alex Verdugo are speculative possibilities who remain unsigned.

6:20pm: Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this evening at the Winter Meetings. In addition to reiterating their longstanding desire to re-sign Alex Bregman, Brown left the door at least slightly open to trading one of his star players.

In response to a question about the team’s willingness to field interest in Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, Brown replied he “would listen on all the players” (X link with video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). It doesn’t seem they’re actively shopping either, however.

“We’ll listen on anybody. We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door… If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it,” Brown expanded (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “So it really would have to make sense. Because right now we’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”

An open-mindedness to conversation isn’t a declaration that either player is on the block. It still seems likelier than not that both will begin next season in Houston. That said, there’s at least a little bit of chatter about the possibility of the Astros pulling off a blockbuster. Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea last week, pointing out that it’d open a fair amount of immediate payroll space while helping to replenish a poor farm system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that there’s “some buzz” around the Meetings regarding the potential for a Tucker trade, in particular.

Both players would net a strong return. They’re each down to their final year of arbitration but are among the best in baseball at their respective positions. Tucker, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a $15.8MM salary, hit 23 home runs in only 78 games this year. He slashed .289/.408/.585 across 339 plate appearances. A nagging right leg injury cost him a few months, but Tucker’s rate production was the best of his career. He’s one of the game’s five to 10 best hitters and trending towards a free agent deal that could push near $400MM.

There’s little to suggest the Astros are going to make a push to sign Tucker to that kind of contract. Even if they expect him to walk in 12 months, a trade would be a tough sell. Houston is trying to win another AL West title. They wouldn’t come close to replacing Tucker’s production if they move him. They’re already thin in the outfield, where Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are the other projected starters. Yordan Alvarez could see time in left field, but manager Joe Espada said today the Astros were hoping to scale back his outfield work to give him more reps at designated hitter (X link via Rome).

Valdez probably wouldn’t bring quite the same return as Tucker. He’d arguably be easier to replace, though the Astros would be placing a lot of faith in injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. to do so. The southpaw is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing through 176 2/3 innings. Valdez has topped 175 frames in three straight years. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 3.45 in any of those seasons. While his strikeout rates are more good than great, Valdez posts elite ground-ball numbers.

Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary in his final arbitration year. That’s a notable sum but still well below what he’d make for one season if he were a free agent. (Frankie Montas just signed for $17MM annually over two seasons, for example.) Valdez is going into his age-31 season and could be limited to a five-year free agent contract, but he’s on track for a deal that lands well north of $100MM. The Astros have a better chance of re-signing him than they do of keeping Tucker, but neither player seems especially likely to remain in Houston after next season.

With a significant gap between the sides, it’s worth examining the organization’s payroll. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number at nearly $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of next season’s $241MM base threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them well into CBT territory. Even if they balk at his asking price, they’d need to be willing to pay the tax to make any notable upgrades unless they ship out salary.

The luxury tax isn’t a firm limit. Owner Jim Crane allowed the front office to push into tax territory this year. He has suggested he’s willing to do so again if the organization feels they’re targeting the correct players. Offering Bregman a $26MM average annual value reinforces that, even if it wasn’t a proposal the two-time All-Star was likely to accept.

The Astros seemed to be up against their limit late last winter. Once they lost Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery, ownership signed off on a surprising $95MM contract for Josh Hader. Maybe they’ll eventually do the same to retain Bregman. That’d be easier to envision if they managed to offload salary in a trade, especially since they’d face escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive years. How could they go about cutting spending?

The Astros have $142MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. They’d have a tough time moving most of those deals. They’re not trading Jose Altuve ($30MM) or Yordan Alvarez ($15MM). There’s little incentive to sell low on Cristian Javier ($10MM) midway through Tommy John rehab. Trading Hader ($19MM) after one season of a five-year deal isn’t happening. Lance McCullers Jr.’s injury history means they wouldn’t find a taker for his $17MM salary without paying the contract down almost the entire way.

Houston can’t trade any portion of the $19.5MM they owe to José Abreu after releasing him. They could technically trade Rafael Montero, who remains in the organization after being outrighted from the 40-man roster. No one’s letting them off the hook for any part of his $11.5MM salary, though. That’s $122MM in commitments to players who have almost no chance of being moved.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, the only realistic trade options are Victor Caratini and Ryan Pressly. Caratini is making an affordable $6MM as a quality complement to Yainer Diaz behind the plate. The Astros could find a taker, but they’d probably need to subsequently commit $3-4MM to sign a backup catcher. Moving Caratini wouldn’t make much of a difference in the Bregman bidding.

As we noted when we named Pressly the offseason’s #14 trade candidate, offloading the reliever’s $14MM salary is the most straightforward option. It’s one the front office has considered. A Pressly trade is a strong possibility, but it’s not inevitable. It’d deal a hit to their bullpen, for one. Pressly also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player. If he doesn’t want to move, he’s staying.

That leaves their arbitration group. Houston has one of the biggest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects them for a combined salary nearing $54MM. They’re mostly key players. Houston’s arb class breaks down as follows (the salaries are projections, not finalized numbers).

• Framber Valdez: $17.8MM
• Kyle Tucker: $15.8MM
• Mauricio Dubón: $4.6MM
• Luis Garcia: $1.875MM
• Bryan Abreu: $3.7MM
• Chas McCormick: $3.3MM
• Jake Meyers: $2.2MM
• Jeremy Peña: $4.4MM

Most of those players are making between $2-5MM. Trading someone like Dubón or Meyers is plausible, but as with a potential Caratini move, it’s not especially consequential from a payroll perspective. If Houston wanted to clear significant money from their arbitration class, the clearest way would be to move one of Tucker or Valdez.

This week, Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea of the Astros entertaining a Valdez or Tucker trade. To be clear, that was framed as speculation, not defined reporting that the Astros are actually considering it. Tucker and Valdez are each one year from free agency. Rome points out that they’re trending towards contracts that Crane has traditionally been reluctant to approve — especially Tucker. He argues that the Astros could use one of Tucker or Valdez to add talent to a thin farm system while remaining a contender for another AL West crown. That’s especially true if the Astros use the extra payroll room to finish a deal with Bregman.

Of the two, Valdez would probably be slightly easier to replace. After a terrible April, Hunter Brown pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Ronel Blanco fired 167 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. Garcia could be ready for Opening Day after losing the ’24 season to Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, he was a quality mid-rotation starter. The same is true of McCullers, although his injury history over the past three seasons makes him difficult to rely upon. Spencer Arrighetti showed the ability to miss bats and quietly posted an excellent finish in 2024; over his final 13 starts, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. J.P. France could be back later in the year after losing this season to a shoulder procedure. He’s a capable back-end arm if healthy.

Trading Valdez would subtract the Astros’ most reliable source of innings, to be sure. Yet a starting five of Brown, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti and some combination of McCullers and France has decent upside. The Astros would probably need to add rotation help at the deadline for a second straight year, but it wouldn’t be a disastrous group to open the season. They’d need to be more aggressive in stockpiling non-roster depth than they have been in prior offseasons. They could also target at least one near-MLB pitching prospect if they were to seriously consider a Valdez trade.

Moving Tucker is a much harder sell. Even if the Astros don’t think there’s much chance they’ll re-sign him, they’d take a huge downgrade to their 2025 lineup. Tucker could be a top 5-10 hitter in MLB next season. His foot injury was a source of frustration this year, but there’s no way to replace the kind of production (.289/.408/.585 with 23 homers in 339 plate appearances) they’d be losing. The outfield is already a relative weak point after McCormick underperformed this year.

None of this is to say a Tucker or Valdez trade is likely. Indeed, there’s no indication the Astros have given either scenario serious thought. If they find it more difficult than expected to line up a Pressly trade, there’s at least an argument for them thinking bigger to create some spending capacity.

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

The news is obviously great for Valdez personally. He and the club got a scare when he landed on the injured list earlier this month due to soreness in his throwing elbow. It’s always a concerning element when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured but a number of high-profile pitchers requiring season-ending surgery this year only heightened the worry.

Thankfully, it seems Valdez avoided a really serious injury. He started throwing again shortly after being placed on the IL and will now be quickly activated, just barely over the 15-day minimum and without requiring a rehab assignment.

The news is also great for the team, as the Astros have been scrambling to fill their rotation all season along. They came into they year knowing they would be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, since they each underwent significant elbow surgeries last year and won’t be available until midseason at the earliest. But the rotation was further thinned out during Spring Training when Justin Verlander and José Urquidy each landed on the injured list.

Valdez then landed on the injured list a few weeks ago, further depleting the rotation mix. Verlander returned to health and rejoined the club about a week ago, but then Cristian Javier swapped places with him, landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. Now that Valdez is back, he’ll slot into the rotation next to Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.

France being sent down registers as a surprise. He’s certainly not out to an amazing start to the season, with a 7.46 earned run average through five starts. But he did quite well last year, with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings. He may have been challenged to maintain those kinds of results going forward, as his 17.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average last year, but he’s actually increased his strikeout rate to 18.2% this year.

His struggles in the early going could perhaps be a bit based on luck. His .289 batting average on balls in play last year has ticked up to .321 this season, while his strand rate has gone from 76.7% to 62.2%. His 5.52 FIP and 4.95 SIERA both suggest he deserved to have slightly better results than what he actually got.

Beyond looking at France in a vacuum, it’s also surprising to see him as the corresponding move when considering the other options. Both Brown and Arrighetti still have options and each has allowed more earned runs than innings pitched this year. Brown had a 9.68 ERA through five outings while Arrighetti has a 10.97 ERA through three.

A deeper look perhaps sheds some light on the decision, however. Arrighetti has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, far more than France. His 12.1% walk rate is certainly on the high side but he’s also been victimized by a .500 BABIP and 52.8% strand rate. His 3.81 FIP and 4.04 SIERA are actually quite serviceable.

Brown’s rate stats for the year aren’t amazing but his numbers are also heavily skewed by one nightmare outing in which he allowed nine runs on 11 hits against the Royals while only recording two outs. Perhaps the Astros are giving him the benefit of the doubt since he had a 26.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 52.4% ground ball rate last year. Perhaps the club will speak on their reasoning in the coming days.

The diminished rotation is a huge reason why the Astros are out to its worst start in years. They are currently 7-19, the worst club in the American League apart from the White Sox. Their starters have a collective 5.21 ERA, which is better than just the White Sox and Rockies out of the 30 MLB clubs. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA in his career and should help stabilize the group as long as he’s pitching like his usual self. If Javier and Urquidy are able to come back soon, that could further strengthen things.

Elsewhere on the roster, the team is allowed a 27th man for the Mexico City Series, though it has to be a position player. Per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros will have first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage as their extra body.

It’s unclear if the Astros intend to have Cabbage around for just the games in Mexico or a longer stay, but it will perhaps be a situation worth monitoring since the club has been getting atrocious production from the first base spot this year. Earlier this week, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the struggles of José Abreu, who is now hitting .065/.132/.081 on the year. Jon Singleton has started in Abreu’s place a few times lately. His line of .244/.326/.293 is far better than Abreu’s but is still below average, translating to a 88 wRC+.

Cabbage has generally hit a ton in the minors but also had his share of strikeout problems, a trend that has continued this year. Acquired from the Angels in the offseason, Cabbage has struck out in 31.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances this year and also walked in 23.1% of them. He has three home runs and is hitting .271/.440/.486 for a 137 wRC+ while also stealing seven bases. That’s pretty similar production to his time in Triple-A last year, when he hit 30 home runs, stole 32 bases and struck out 30% of the time.

Javier has been a rare bright spot in what has been a brutal start to the 2024 campaign for the 7-15 Astros. None of that can be pinned on the 27-year-old righty, however, as Javier has dominated to the tune of a 1.54 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 23 1/3 innings of work across four starts so far this season. Unfortunately, he’ll now take a seat for at least 15 days, though Espada indicated (as relayed by Kawahara) that the goal of Javier’s placement on the injured list was simply to “give him time” to recover, suggesting a fairly short absence could be on the table.

Even if Javier’s trip to the injured list is a fairly short one, it’s still tough news for the Astros. The club just returned veteran ace Justin Verlander from the injured list last week, and now Javier will join Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf for the time being. Of that group, only Valdez appears to be nearing a return. The lefty was placed on the injured list earlier this month due to elbow soreness but avoided a more serious injury, with Kawahara relaying that Espada even left the door open to Valdez returning to the club’s rotation sometime this week to pitch alongside Verlander and J.P. France against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

If Valdez can return in the coming days, it should be a fairly seamless transition into the rotation with off-days on Monday and Friday allowing the club additional flexibility if necessary. The southpaw made just two starts prior to going on the injured list at the beginning of the month but looked good in both of them, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 3.55 FIP and 10 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work.

Should Valdez need a bit longer before he’s ready to be activated, the Astros figure to turn to Arrighetti to make a start at some point. The 24-year-old rookie made his MLB debut earlier this season and struggled badly in two starts, allowing nine runs on 11 hits and five walks in just seven innings of work, though he did manage to notch eight strikeouts. If Arrighetti doesn’t end up being needed to make a start in the coming days, the Astros could instead look to use him to bolster a bullpen that has posted a worrisome 5.29 ERA to this point in the 2024 season, better than only the Rays among AL clubs.

Shoulder inflammation kept Stephenson from pitching during Spring Training, yet after beginning the season on the 15-day injured list, the reliever seemed to be making good progress in his recovery and was looking to be part of the Angels’ roster before April was over.  Yesterday’s news seems to put that timeline in jeopardy, and the only hope now is that Stephenson’s setback is less ominous than it seemed.  A dominant four-month stretch with the Rays last season turned Stephenson into one of the more sought-after commodities in the free agent relief market this past winter, and the Angels landed the righty on a three-year, $33MM contract.

More from around the AL West….

• Mariners outfielder Dominic Canzone likely seems headed for the 10-day IL after suffering a left AC joint sprain in today’s game.  In the second inning, Canzone collided with the wall while catching a Mike Tauchman fly ball, and had to be removed from the game.  Playing in his second MLB campaign, Canzone has hit .219/.286/.531 over 35 plate appearances for Seattle, hitting three homers as part of his early-season power surge.  Canzone and Dylan Moore have shared a left-field platoon, but if Canzone is out, Moore could get more of a regular role, or the Mariners could have Luke Raley assume the lefty-swinging side of the platoon.
• There was plenty of concern for Framber Valdez’s health when elbow soreness sent the southpaw to the Astros’ 15-day injured list earlier this week, but it seems like Valdez may have avoided a serious problem.  Valdez told MLB.com and other media today that he aims to start throwing again on Tuesday, and doesn’t think he’ll need a minor league rehab assignment.  “I feel a lot better now than I did then, and I’ll continue my routine as a starter,” Valdez said.  Needless to say, a return after the minimum 15 days would be a fantastic outcome for Valdez and the Astros, who are already dealing with a lot of injuries in the rotation.
• Justin Verlander is one of those other Astros arms on the shelf, yet the future Hall-of-Famer is on pace to make his 2024 debut on Friday in a start against the Nationals.  Verlander threw 77 pitches over four innings in his second and likely final Triple-A rehab start yesterday.  Some shoulder soreness delayed Verlander during Spring Training, so the 41-year-old was placed on the 15-day IL to begin the season in order to give him more time to ramp up and prepare for his 19th big league campaign.

It was reported yesterday that Valdez was scratched from his start due to elbow soreness and sent to Houston to visit with team doctors. Manager Joe Espada says the plan is for him to be shut down for a few days while his inflammation subsides, per Rome. Further updates will likely follow in the coming days as the club continues to monitor his progress.

With Valdez scratched, the Astros tagged in Henley as an emergency starter in yesterday’s game against the Rangers but he allowed five earned runs while recording just one out. The Astros managed to come back and win that game 10-5 but used four relievers, getting multiple innings from three of them. Today’s moves provide the club with a couple of fresh arms for their beleaguered bullpen.

Now that Valdez is officially on the IL, the Astros will have to find another starter to join their rotation alongside Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Ronel Blanco, though Justin Verlander has begun a rehab assignment and may not be too far away. If Verlander wants to make a second rehab starts as planned, perhaps long reliever Brandon Bielak can take the ball in a few days’ time for a spot start.

Suero, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Astros in the offseason. He has 193 1/3 innings of major league experience, having pitched for the Nationals and Dodgers. He has a 4.75 earned run average in that time, striking out 25.4% of batters faced while walking 8.6%.

However, he’s a few years removed from his best results, as he had a 4.10 ERA with the Nats from 2018 to 2020 but then a 6.33 ERA in 2021. He was stuck in the minors in 2022 and then had a 7.88 ERA in eight innings for the Dodgers last year. But his recent Triple-A numbers have been better, as he had a 3.26 ERA in the Dodgers’ system last year and a 4.50 ERA through four appearances so far this year. Suero still has an option and also has less than four years of service time, meaning he can be retained beyond this season via arbitration if he holds onto a 40-man spot all year.

As for Ortega, it was reported last month that he would miss three to four months after undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow, making this transfer an inevitable formality.

At this point, it’s not yet clear how significant the injury is and Valdez has not yet been placed on the injured list, but it’s nonetheless a concerning development for a number of reasons. For one thing, there has been an unfortunate streak of pitching injuries of late, with stars like Shane Bieber and Eury Pérez recently requiring season-ending surgeries. Another big name, Spencer Strider, is still trying to discover the severity of his injury but there is concern that he could be set to go under the knife as well. Guys like Shohei Ohtani, Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcántara, Robbie Ray, Shane McClanahan and many more are each recovery from undergoing surgery last year.

The litany of injuries has led to a recent dispute between the MLBPA and the league, with the players concerned about the effects of the pitch clock while the league believes increased velocity and spin in the modern game are to blame. It’s still not clear that Valdez is going to be following those other pitchers to a significant surgery, with both Espada and general manager Dana Brown downplaying the concern, per Rome. But the fact that another star player is dealing with a possible elbow injury could only add to the ongoing tension.

Beyond the league-wide implications, it’s also a scary development for the Astros, as Valdez has emerged as a huge part of the club’s success in recent years. He has a 3.17 earned run average in 617 innings dating back to the start of the 2020 season. He struck out 23.8% of batters faced in that time, walking just 8% of them while keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 62.8% clip.

Subtracting that kind of quality performance would hurt any rotation but it would be especially noteworthy for the Astros at this moment in time. They are already without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia Jr., both of whom underwent elbow surgery last year and each is still working back to health. More recently, each of Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Shawn Dubin landed on the injured list due to injuries. Verlander is getting close to a return, having begun a rehab assignment over the weekend, but it’s clearly a less than ideal time for another domino to fall so they will obviously be hoping that Valdez isn’t seriously hurt. For now, Blair Henley has been called up to make a start while Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Ronel Blanco fill out the rest of the rotation.

For Valdez personally, he’s in his penultimate season of club control, currently slated for free agency after 2025. In the worst-case scenario where he requires Tommy John surgery and misses over a year, it would mean that he would be heading into the open market with hardly any innings pitched in the two seasons prior to becoming a free agent.

It’s worth reiterating that none of that has come to pass yet and Valdez is not even on the injured list. Still, even this small update of some soreness clearly has the potential to set off some ripple effects if it turns to be something serious, given the potential impacts on the Astros, on Valdez himself and the tumultuous situation between MLB and the MLBPA.

It’s a positive step for both pitchers, though the team still hasn’t declared with any certainty that both players will be ready for Opening Day. If he’s healthy, Verlander would be the presumptive favorite to start Opening Day. France, meanwhile, figures to compete for a spot at the back of the rotation after impressing as a 28-year-old rookie in 2023. Houston manager Joe Espada has raised the possibility of a six-man rotation this year, which would allow France to continue starting alongside Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and Jose Urquidy. That’s not set in stone at this point and will of course be dependent on how both righties continue to progress.

On the topic of Valdez, Chandler Rome of the Athletic wrote earlier this week that the left-hander says he has not yet received any sort of extension offer from the team this winter. Houston general manager Dana Brown listed Valdez as an extension target last offseason not long after being hired, and while the team and Valdez discussed parameters last spring, there was a sufficient enough gap that no deal was reached.

Valdez, 30, is controllable through the 2025 season. He and the Astros agreed to a $12.1MM salary for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in doing so. He’s finished ninth or better on each of the past two Cy Young ballots and touts a 3.13 ERA, a 23.5% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a massive 63% ground-ball rate in 534 regular season innings, dating back to 2021. Valdez’s name briefly surfaced in trade rumors earlier in the winter, but a deal never seemed especially likely and now feels even less plausible with Verlander and France behind schedule. If anything, Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to constantly be adding to his pitching depth.

Elsewhere on the pitching staff, the Astros are set for an unusual amount of competition in the bullpen this spring, Kawahara writes in a full column. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu are locked into late-inning roles, and Rafael Montero’s three-year, $34.5MM contract (covering the 2023-25 seasons) assures him a spot as well. But the Astros lost Phil Maton and Hector Neris to free agency already, and they don’t seem especially likely to re-sign Ryne Stanek, either. They’ll also be without Kendall Graveman, who’ll miss the season due to shoulder surgery.

Among the options to step into prominent bullpen roles are righties Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, Dylan Coleman, Shawn Dubin, Seth Martinez, Forrest Whitley and Oliver Ortega. All are on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Parker Mushinski and Bennett Sousa. Righty Wander Suero is the most experienced non-roster invitee in camp.

Brown, the team’s general manager, tells Kawahara that the team will “take a close look” at Coleman in particular. Both Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller praised Coleman’s raw stuff and cited a belief that the Astros can get him back to his 2022 form, when he posted a 2.78 ERA, fanned nearly a quarter of his opponents and sat just shy of 98 mph with his heater. The 2023 season was a disaster for Coleman, however, as he posted an 8.84 ERA and walked 19 batters in 18 1/3 innings with Kansas City.

Sousa, too, will get strong consideration. Brown noted to Kawahara that if he’d been acquired prior to the Sept. 1 postseason eligibility deadline last year, he’d likely have been on Houston’s playoff rosters. Espada indicated that he doesn’t feel compelled to have a second lefty in the ’pen beyond Hader and is focused primarily on just carrying the best group the team has, regardless of handedness. Still, Sousa posted interesting strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates in a small sample last season (29.4%, 5.9% and 12.9%, respectively) and has fanned nearly a third of his career opponents in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

Valdez, 30, took something of a step back last year from a standout 2022 campaign that saw the southpaw post a 2.82 ERA while leading the AL with 201 1/3 frames en route to a top 5 finish in AL Cy Young award voting. Nonetheless, Valdez posted strong numbers in 2023 with a 3.45 ERA that was 22% better than league average by measure of ERA+ in 198 innings of work. That solid performance was backed up by a 3.50 FIP that largely matches his top-level run prevention numbers. Looking under the hood, Valdez posted a 54.2% groundball rate that, while well above average, was actually a career low for the lefty, who generated grounders at a 66.2% clip for his career entering 2023. That being said, he countered the increased contact in the air with the best strikeout (24.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates of any 162-game season in his career.

It’s Valdez’s third trip through arbitration, though as a Super Two player the left-hander will be eligible for arbitration a fourth and final time in 2025. The $12.1MM salary for 2024 is an exact match for the projection put forth by MLBTR contributor Matt Swatz back in October. The deal continues the streak of the sides avoiding arbitration throughout Valdez’s career. Last season, the sides avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6.8MM salary for 2023, while the sides settled on a $3MM salary for the 2022 campaign in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Houston attempted to work out a long-term extension with the left-hander last spring, though the sides ultimately did not come together on a deal. While it’s possible the sides could look to reopen those negotiations in the coming weeks, rumors swirled last month that the Astros were listening to offers on the left-hander from at least half a dozen clubs. Between those trade rumors and the impending free agencies of second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman, both of whom GM Dana Brown has expressed interest in extending as recently as November, it seems reasonable to think any talks of a longer term arrangement with Valdez could be on hold for the time being. In the meantime, Valdez figures to be paired with veteran ace Justin Verlander at the front of Houston’s rotation with the likes of Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, J.P. France, and Hunter Brown also in the mix for spots in the club’s Opening Day rotation.

Dec. 15: Front office personnel from opposing teams are “monitoring” the possibility of the Astros trading star left-hander Framber Valdez, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 30-year-old is coming off his second straight top 10 Cy Young finish.

It’s unsurprising to hear opposing clubs are keeping their eye on Valdez. He’d be an upgrade for any rotation in MLB. He has reached 31 starts in each of the past two seasons, leading the American League with 201 1/3 innings back in 2022. Valdez has paired that volume with excellent results, working to a 3.40 ERA over parts of six seasons in the big leagues. He has allowed 3.13 earned runs per nine over the past three years, striking out 23.5% of batters faced and keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 63% clip.

Given that level of success, plenty of teams would be interested if the Astros put Valdez on the trade market. There’s no indication the Houston front office is seriously entertaining that possibility at this point. In response to trade chatter about third baseman Alex Bregman, Houston GM Dana Brown flatly shot down the idea at the Winter Meetings, saying the team is “trying to win here.”

The club could take a similar stance on Valdez. He’s arguably the best pitcher on a team with championship aspirations. Houston’s rotation is solid but has taken some injury hits in recent months. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are each expected to miss roughly half the season as they rehab arm surgeries. The Astros reacquired Justin Verlander to join Valdez and Cristian Javier in the rotation’s top three. José Urquidy joins second-year pitchers Hunter Brown and J.P. France as possibilities at the back end.

Any argument in favor of a Valdez trade is tied to Houston’s payroll outlook. Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll around $222MM, well above last year’s approximate $180MM Opening Day figure. They’re projected right at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which they haven’t surpassed since 2020. Dana Brown has been rather forthright about the limited money at the front office’s disposal.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $12.1MM salary in his third of four arbitration seasons. With a typically strong season, he’d likely be in line for something in the $18MM range in 2025. Valdez is on track to hit free agency during the 2025-26 offseason at age 32. Brown has previously expressed a desire to extend key players like Valdez, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve. Thus far, the second-year GM has only worked out a long-term deal with Javier, although there’s a general expectation they’ll be able to get something done with Altuve at some point.

While a trade of a veteran on a notable salary would provide some payroll flexibility, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t have a ton of needs on the roster. The Astros replaced Martín Maldonado with Víctor Caratini behind the dish. They appear content with their in-house outfielders despite losing Michael Brantley. While they could stand to add middle innings depth after seeing Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency, trading Valdez to create spending room for a low-leverage relievers wouldn’t make much sense in the short term. A deal could recoup controllable pitching and add some talent to a barren farm system, but it’d be at the expense of a win-now roster.

One less impactful possibility would be to entertain offers on Urquidy. He’s only projected for a $3.5MM salary, so the cost savings would be fairly modest. Yet the front office could look to move him on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he turned in a 5.29 ERA across 16 appearances. Rosenthal notes that the Astros have looked to trade Urquidy on prior occasions. The return wouldn’t be anywhere near what they’d receive were they to move Valdez, of course, but a deal that sends Urquidy to a rotation-needy team for bullpen help isn’t far-fetched.