Carlson, 26, has seen his stock slide in recent years. That includes a very rough showing in 2024. Between the Cardinals and Rays last year, he stepped to the plate 265 times but struck out in 28.3% of those appearances and hit just .209/.287/.277 for a wRC+ of 67. The Rays could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.7MM salary, but they non-tendered him instead.

It’s been a steep drop from a few years ago. Carlson was selected by the Cardinals with the 33rd overall pick in 2016 and he performed well in his first professional games. Baseball America ranked him as one of the ten best prospects in the entire league in both 2020 and 2021.

In the latter of those two years, he seemed to be on his way to delivering on that prospect hype. He got into 149 games for the Cards in 2021, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .266/.343/.437 for a 111 wRC+. He also got some decent marks for his glovework, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 2.4 wins above replacement on the year. Since he was only 22 years old at the time, it would have been fair to consider that just the beginning.

Unfortunately, his production has trended down since then, perhaps due to a lack of health. A left hamstring strain sent him to the injured list, followed by a later stint for a left thumb sprain. He played 128 games with a .236/.316/.380 line and 98 wRC+. In 2023, left ankle issues were the culprit, sending him to the IL multiple times and eventually requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 for a wRC+ of 84, getting into just 76 games. In 2024, a left AC joint sprain put him on the IL to start the year. As mentioned earlier, he went on to have a poor season and got sent to free agency.

For the O’s, they probably aren’t expecting much out of Carlson except to fill a fourth outfielder role. They have Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser likely to be their regular trio on the grass. Even if someone in that group gets hurt, they have Heston Kjerstad as an option to step up. He still has options remaining and could perhaps be ticketed for everyday at-bats in Triple-A until he’s needed in the majors. The designated hitter slot will probably be shared by first basemen Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn.

That will likely leave Carlson and Daz Cameron in bench/depth roles. Carlson has played all three outfield spots in his career, with mixed reviews. Defensive Runs Saved considers him to have been slightly above average on the whole, though Outs Above Average has him a bit below par.

Based on his past prospect pedigree, there’s theoretically some upside there since Carlson is still young, though he will need to stay healthy and find a path to some regular playing time. If that comes to pass, Carlson can be retained for 2026 via arbitration. He also has a full slate of options, so it’s possible the O’s send him to the minors to try and get him back on track that way. His service time is at four years and 104 days, putting him 68 days of the five-year mark. Once he gets to that line, he can’t be optioned without his consent.

Amaya, 26, was just claimed off waivers earlier this month. The O’s have a penchant for grabbing guys off the wire and then trying to pass them through at a later date, so it’s not especially surprising to see that happen here.

The young infielder is considered to be stronger as a fielder than as a hitter. He has plenty of experience with the middle infield positions, as well as some time at third base, generally impressing prospect evaluators. He has hit .182/.222/.195 in 81 major league plate appearances. That’s a tiny sample size but his minor league work has also been subpar. Over the past two years, he stepped to the plate 868 times on the farm and hit .241/.332/.379 for a wRC+ of 80.

He exhausted his final option in 2024. As his out-of-options status was nearing, he started to bounce around the league. He was designated for assignment by the Marlins in March and traded to the Astros. Houston put him on waivers in August, which led the White Sox to make a claim, though they subsequently lost him to the O’s this month.

Amaya heads back to DFA limbo and will know his fate within a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any possibility of a trade would need to be explored in the next five days. Based on his past few DFAs, he’s probably headed for the waiver wire again in the coming days. If he clears this time, the O’s will retain him as some infield depth but without him taking up a roster spot.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the financial terms.

Onto the transactions…

• The Angels announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Patrick Sandoval, infielder Eric Wagaman, as well as outfielders Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio. You can read more about those moves here.
• The Astros tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
• The Athletics announced that they did not tender a contract to right-hander Dany Jiménez, who was projected for a $1MM salary. He posted a 4.91 in 25 appearances for the A’s in 2024. He struck out 21.4% of opponents but gave out walks at a 16.2% clip.
• The Blue Jays are planning to non-tender righty Dillon Tate, per Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). Tate was just claimed off waivers at the start of September and had a projected salary of $1.9MM. He’s a former fourth overall pick with some good numbers in his career but he missed most of 2023 due to injury and then posted a 4.66 ERA in 2024. The Jays are also non-tendering righty Jordan Romano, which you can read more about here.
• The Guardians have non-tendered outfielder George Valera and right-hander Connor Gillispie, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). Both players were designated for assignment earlier this week.
• The Mariners are going to non-tender outfielder Sam Haggerty, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He was limited to just eight games in 2024 due to a torn achilles. He was only projected for a salary of $900K but the M’s have decided to move on. They also non-tendered infielder Josh Rojas and righties Austin Voth and JT Chargois, moves that are covered with more depth here.
• The Orioles plan to non-tender right-hander Jacob Webb, per Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link). Webb was projected for a salary of $1.7MM next year. The righty tossed 56 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2024 with a 3.02 ERA and 24.5% strikeout rate, but an 11.4% walk rate.
• The Rays announced they have non-tendered outfielder Dylan Carlson as well as left-handers Tyler Alexander, Colin Poche and Richard Lovelady. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the news (X link) prior to the official announcement. Carlson once seemed like a building block in St. Louis but his offense has declined for three straight years now and he was projected for a $2.7MM salary. Alexander was projected for $2.8MM and had a 5.10 ERA this year. Poche had a solid 3.86 ERA but was projected for $3.4MM. Lovelady was designated for assignment a few days ago.
• The Rangers tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
• The Red Sox announced that right-handers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell were both non-tendered. Those two had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
• The Royals tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
• The Tigers announced that they have non-tendered infielder Eddys Leonard as well as right-handers Ricky Vanasco, Brendan White and Wilmer Flores. Three of those four were designated for assignment earlier this week. Flores, the lone exception, is the younger brother of the same-named Wilmer Flores of the Giants. The younger Flores was once a notable pitching prospect but was injured for most of 2024.
• The Twins tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
• The Yankees have non-tendered infielder Jon Berti, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). He was projected for a salary of $3.8MM. He was injured for much of the year and only got into 25 games. The Yankees also announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Tim Mayza, who was projected for a $4MM salary but had a 6.33 ERA in 2024.
• The White Sox will non-tender first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets, which MLBTR covered earlier today. The Sox later announced Sheets and also that they non-tendered right-hander Enyel De Los Santos as well. De Los Santos was projected for a salary of $1.7MM but posted a 5.20 ERA this year.

Trade speculation has swirled around Carlson for years, even when he was on the way up the ladder as one of the top minor leaguers in the St. Louis farm system.  Both before and after Carlson made his MLB debut in 2020, there were whispers that the crowded nature of the Cards’ outfield picture might inspire the team to move Carlson to address another need, and it is perhaps now easy to second-guess the Cardinals’ decision to retain a player they once saw as a building block.

Carlson seemingly lived up to that early hype with a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, but injuries curtailed both his production and his playing time in 2022-23.  A left hamstring strain and a thumb sprain hampered him in 2022, and ankle problems (and an eventual ankle surgery) limited Carlson to 76 games in 2023.  Playing in 204 of 324 games over the 2022-23 seasons, Carlson hit .230/316/.364 over 743 plate appearances.

The struggles continued into this year, as Carlson has a .198/.275/.240 slash line in 138 PA while in a clear part-time capacity.  Still just 25 years old, Carlson will now get a change of scenery with this trade to the Rays and a chance at a fresh start to his Major League career.

The Rays’ flurry of deadline moves has left plenty of opening around the roster, including the left field spot recently occupied by Randy Arozarena.  Carlson’s center field defense has been declining along with his offense, but the metrics indicate that he is an average to solid defender in the corner outfield spots.  Between that outfield versatility and his switch-hitting, Carlson somewhat fits the Rays’ preferred model of players who can shuffled around to different places on the diamond, though he’ll naturally need to show more at the plate in order to win regular playing time.  Carlson is still under arbitration control through the 2026 season, so Tampa Bay has time to evaluate Carlson and decide whether or not he has something to offer as a big leaguer.

Armstrong has a 4.18 ERA over 327 1/3 career innings with Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Baltimore, and two separate stints with Tampa Bay during his 10 Major League seasons.  The righty is a free agent after the season and is therefore a rental pickup for the Cardinals, who will use Armstrong as some extra depth in their bullpen.

A big .370 BABIP has impacted Armstrong’s performance in 2024, as his 5.40 ERA is considerably higher than his 3.86 SIERA.  It hasn’t all been plain bad luck, however, as Armstrong’s walk and hard-contact rates are all below average, and his 23.4% strikeout rate is decent but inspiring.  Left-handed batters have a .982 OPS against Armstrong this season, while he has continued to pitch well against same-sided hitters, limiting righty-swingers to a .690 OPS.

11:17am: The Cardinals crossed a pair of big items off their wishlist yesterday when they acquired right-hander Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham from the White Sox, but they’re still hoping to add to the bullpen, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The Cardinals are openly shopping outfielder Dylan Carlson in a related pursuit, and MLB.com’s John Denton tweets that Nationals right-hander Dylan Floro is a name to watch if St. Louis indeed moves on from Carlson. The Nats are known to have some interest in Carlson.

A few years ago, the notion of trading Carlson for a middle-relief rental would’ve been unfathomable (though it’s of course possible that a theoretical Dylan-for-Dylan swap would also include additional minor league players to balance out the scales). Carlson isn’t all that far removed from ranking among the game’s top 10 to 20 overall prospects. The former first-rounder’s bat has wilted since a solid 2021 showing.

Dating back to 2022, Carlson has batted just .225/.310/.345 in 881 big league plate appearances. That’s come in scattered playing time — in part due to injuries — so the Nats could well view him as a buy-low option with two-plus seasons of club control remaining who could benefit from a change of scenery. (The last controllable outfielder they pried from the Cardinals in exchange for a rental pitcher — Lane Thomas for Jon Lester — worked out nicely, after all.)

Floro, 33, is on a one-year, $2.25MM contract and will be a free agent at season’s end. He’s pitched to a pristine 2.06 earned run average this season, albeit with a rather pedestrian 19.6% strikeout rate and tepid 90.3 mph average fastball. That said, Floro has walked only 6.4% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a strong 47.6% clip. He’s not going to continue to see this level of fortune on his fly-balls — only 2.2% of them have become homers, compared to the 7% mark he carried into the season — but it’s been a nice rebound effort for a veteran reliever who struggled to keep his ERA under 5.00 last year between the Marlins and Twins.

Since cementing himself as a viable big league reliever in 2018, Floro touts a 3.11 ERA in 361 1/3 innings. He’s had a below-average strikeout rate nearly every season along the way, but never egregiously so, and has offset that with habitually strong command. Floro also regularly avoids loud contact, evidenced by a career 87.4 mph average exit velocity, 3.7% barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit rate.

Floro is surely just one of many bullpen arms the Cardinals have looked into in the final hours leading to today’s 5pm CT trade deadline. Concurrently, they’re looking for trade partners for Carlson and the already-designated-for-assignment Giovanny Gallegos. The Cards may not have another blockbuster along the lines of yesterday’s three-team swap in them, but they could still have multiple trades in store today.

Carlson, 25, has been getting squeezed out of playing time this year as guys like Michael Siani, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson have been out on the grass more than he has. The crunch will be even tighter whenever Pham officially reports to the club. As mentioned, the club will have to open a couple of roster spots, so perhaps a trade of Carlson will come together between now and tomorrow’s deadline.

“Right now, he’s still one of our outfielders, but clearly we’re gonna have a roster crunch at some point,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said of Carlson today, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on X. “So we’ll use the next 24 hours to see what happens, but he’s still a part of our organization right now and we’ll see where that goes.”

Sending out Carlson now would definitely be a sell-low move for the Cards. Not too long ago, he was the club’s first-round pick and one of their top prospects. He also seemed to be establishing himself as a solid regular in the major leagues when he first arrived. In 2021, he got into 149 games and hit 18 home runs while drawing walks at a 9.2% rate. He also received close to league average grades for his outfield glovework and was considered to be worth 2.4 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

That was only his age-22 season, so it seemed fair to expect better results going forward, but the opposite has happened. In 2022, Carlson went on the injured list a couple of times, first due to a left hamstring strain and then a left thumb sprain. He got into 128 games with his production slipping a bit, finishing that year with a line of .236/.316/.380 and a 99 wRC+.

Last year, left ankle issues sent him to the IL multiple times, limiting him to just 76 games and ultimately requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 on the year for a wRC+ of 84, another dip in his production but perhaps one connected to his health.

Coming into 2024, he seemed to have a chance to engineer a rebound. Both Edman and Nootbaar were slated to start the season on the IL, which should have opened up plenty of playing time for Carlson. Unfortunately, just at the end of Spring Training, Carlson and Jordan Walker collided while trying to make a catch in the outfield. Carlson was diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder and also had to start the season on the IL.

He was back by early May but, as mentioned, hasn’t been able to earn much playing time this year. When in the lineup, he hasn’t done much to earn a longer leash, having hit .198/.275/.240 here in 2024.

Perhaps some clubs will be eyeing Carlson as a change-of-scenery candidate. He’s been trending downwards for three straight years now but mostly due to injuries. It’s feasible that with some health luck and regular playing time somewhere, he could return to the form he showed a few years back. He is making a modest $2.35MM salary this year and has two more years of control left. He’ll be due raises in arbitration but won’t be able to push his salary up much based on his recent results and injury absences. Carlson also has options and doesn’t necessarily need to be traded, though the Cardinals may prefer to just cash him in for something now as he may no longer be in their future plans.

The Nationals have moved on from a few veteran outfielders already this year. Eddie Rosario and Víctor Robles were released and Jesse Winker was traded to the Mets. As mentioned, Thomas was just flipped to the Guardians. Perhaps they could slot Carlson in there next to James Wood and Jacob Young.

The Angels would be in a somewhat similar position. They are giving outfield playing time to guys who could be traded like Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar. If they pull the trigger on a deal for either of those guys, they could grab Carlson in a buy-low move and give him some run for the rest of this year or perhaps next year.

Gallegos would also be a sell-low move, but the Cards don’t have much choice there. He’s an impending free agent and they already sent him off the roster and into DFA limbo. He was one of the better relievers in the league not so long ago, tossing 228 1/3 innings over the 2019-22 seasons with a 2.84 ERA. He struck out 32% of batters faced in that time and only gave out walks at a 6.6% rate, earning 33 saves and 56 holds in the process.

But his ERA jumped to 4.42 last year as his strikeout rate fell to 25.8%. Here in 2024, his punchouts have fallen to a rate of 22.3% as his ERA has climbed to 6.53. That got him nudged off the roster but the Dodgers have a solid reputation of getting good results from pitchers and perhaps see a way to get Gallegos back on track. He is making $5.5MM this year, with roughly $1.8MM still to be paid out. The Dodgers are slated to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and well over the top tier, meaning they face a 110% tax rate on anything they add to their payroll at this point.

May 4: The Cardinals are set to activate outfielder Dylan Carlson from the 10-day injured list tomorrow, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Catcher Pedro Pages is expected to be optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Woo also relays that left-hander Matthew Liberatore is expected to move from the bullpen to the rotation to take the ball in tomorrow afternoon’s game against the White Sox.

Carlson, 25, appeared poised to enter the season as the everyday center fielder in St. Louis until a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder sidelined him just before Opening Day. In his absence, the Cardinals have scuffled to a 15-18 start that leaves them just half a game out of last place in the NL Central. Much of those struggles can be attributed to a lack of offense from the club’s lineup, which has posted a collective 86 wRC+ that ranks sixth from the bottom in the majors. That figure has been dragged down by brutal offensive production from the club’s outfield mix, which to this point in the season has consisted of a combination of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani. With Donovan’s 92 wRC+ leading the pack, Cardinals outfielders have combined for a paltry slash line of .188/.268/.294 with an NL-worst wRC+ of 66.

Given those significant struggles, Carlson’s return to action is welcome news for fans in St. Louis even as he himself is far from a sure thing offensively. The club’s first-round pick in the 2016 draft, Carlson was a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport when he reached the majors during the shortened 2020 season and earned a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting during his first full campaign the following year. While he hit a solid .266/.343/.437 in 149 games that year, he’s struggled to repeat that production over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Carlson has slashed just .230/.316/.364 with a below-average 94 wRC+ in 204 combined games. Still, those numbers are at least decent for a center fielder and would represent a major upgrade over the club’s current production at the position, where is hitting .182/.280/.227 with a wRC+ of 56.

As for Liberatore, the 24-year-old has performed admirably in 12 appearances out of the bullpen this season with a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, but a lackluster 16.4% strikeout rate and a much higher 4.18 FIP suggest that the lefty’s solid results have benefited from good fortune. While those questionable peripherals aren’t necessarily a reason for the Cardinals to avoid using him in the rotation, starting Liberatore is nonetheless a confusing choice given the lefty hasn’t thrown more than 38 pitches in a game since March and has struggled badly in the role throughout his major league career with a 5.72 ERA through 18 starts.

It’s not yet clear if Liberatore’s move to the rotation is a sign that he’s the club’s long-term replacement for veteran lefty Steven Matz, who is reportedly expected to miss at least “a couple of weeks” with a lower back strain, or if Liberatore’s start tomorrow will merely be a spot start before he passes the baton to one of the club’s other options, such as southpaw Zack Thompson or prospect Sem Robberse. Thompson made two starts for the club earlier this season but was optioned to Triple-A after allowing ten runs in 3 1/3 innings of work following a move to the bullpen, while Robberse has dominated Triple-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA in six starts but has yet to make his major league debut.

It’s not currently clear how serious Wicks’s injury is or if a stint on the injured list will be required, but a lengthy absence would be a major blow to the Cubs. The club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has pitched solidly for the Cubs through five starts this season, posting a roughly league average 4.70 ERA and a much stronger 3.25 FIP in 23 innings of work. An trip to the shelf for Wicks would further exacerbate Chicago’s early-season injury woes. Hurlers Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, and Julian Merryweather are all currently on the injured list (though the former may be back soon) while the positional corps has lost both Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger from its outfield mix.

The laundry list of injuries has left the Cubs somewhat thin in terms of rotation options, with both Ben Brown and now Wesneski stepping in to make starts after previously pitching out of the bullpen for the big league club. Chicago signed veteran right-hander Julio Teheran to a minor league deal in earlier this month, and the 33-year-old righty and lefty Thomas Pannone among the club’s top non-roster depth options for the rotation.

More from the NL Central…

• Brewers right-hander Jakob Junis suffered a scary incident earlier this week when he was struck by an errant fly ball during the club’s pregame workouts prior to a game against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Fortunately, Junis is back traveling with the team and spoke to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel yesterday. The right-hander noted that he underwent an MRI and CT scan, both of which came back clean, before he was released from the hospital. Now that he’s back with the team, it appears Junis is set to continue rehabbing from the shoulder impingement that has cost him most of the season to this point. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Brewers manager Pat Murphy recently indicated that the club may look to bring Junis back into the fold as a reliever rather than build him up to start. It’s something of a surprise given the recent injuries suffered by lefties DL Hall and Wade Miley, though it’s possible that a multi-inning relief role could allow the Brewers to maximize Junis’s innings in the short-term.
• Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson has missed the entire season to this point after suffering a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before Opening Day. Fortunately, however, it appears that the 25-year-old could be nearing his season debut. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Carlson is set to begin a rehab assignment in the near future if he comes out of a hitting session today pain-free. The return of Carlson would be most welcome for St. Louis, as the club recently optioned struggling youngster Jordan Walker to the minor leagues. With Carlson and Tommy Edman both on the injured list, that’s left the club to rely on Michael Siani and Alec Burleson as major contributors to the outfield mix alongside Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.

The Cardinals opened the season with a makeshift outfield mix of Jordan Walker, prospect Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan due to injuries suffered not only by Nootbaar, but also center fielders Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar’s start to the season has been delayed by a pair of fractures in his ribcage, while Edman has been dealing with pain in his surgically-repaired right wrist and Carlson suffered a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before the season began.

Nootbaar’s return should provide a boost to the club’s production in the outfield, as he’s hit a solid .247/.356/.430 with a 120 wRC+ and an excellent 14.5% walk rate in 225 games for the Cardinals over the past two seasons. That steady production should help to offset the slow starts suffered by Walker (27 wRC+), Scott (4 wRC+), and Burleson (30 wRC+) so far this season, though it’s of course still too early in the season to make any long-term judgments about the aforementioned trio.

It appears that Nootbaar is significantly close to a return than either Edman or Carlson, neither of whom have resumed baseball activities at this point. That could change rather quickly, however, as Denton notes that Carlson was scheduled to have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, while Edman is scheduled to meet with a specialist on Monday. Both players could be cleared to resume baseball activities if those aforementioned check-ups go well.

Edman was hampered by wrist issues last year and missed nearly a month of action over the summer, leading to him going under the knife in October. He hasn’t bounced back from that surgery as well as expected, however, and missed all of Spring Training while dealing with continued soreness in his wrist. He was slated to be the club’s starting center fielder this season, though he’s capable of playing anywhere in the infield and outfield as needed and could receive time at his native position of shortstop alongside Masyn Winn and Brandon Crawford when healthy.

Carlson, meanwhile, appeared poised to replace Edman in center field to open the season before he too hit the injured list to open the season. While he posted strong numbers en route to a third place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2021, the switch-hitter has struggled since with a .230/.316/.364 slash line in 204 games. It’s possible he’ll get regular reps in the outfield if he returns to action before Edman does, though once the club’s outfield is once again at full strength he figures to be relegated to work off the bench as the club’s fourth outfielder.

Looking beyond the outfield, Marmol also provided an update on right-hander Keynan Middleton to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) this afternoon. As relayed by Jones, Middleton received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow and is expected to resume baseball activities after a 72-hour rest period. The news represents a slight setback for Middleton, who was originally scheduled to begin his throwing program earlier this week.

Middleton has yet to make his Cardinals debut after signing a one-year deal with the club back in February, but pitched to a 3.38 ERA and 4.20 FIP in 51 games last year that included a dominant stretch run in New York where he posted an excellent 1.88 ERA with a 3.26 FIP while striking out 30.4% of batters faced. Upon his return, Middleton figures to slot into the club’s late-inning mix alongside the likes of Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero.

Major offseason acquisition Sonny Gray suffered a right hamstring strain in spring training, robbing him of the necessary game action he needed to be ready for the regular season. The right-hander threw 36 pitches over three simulated innings today (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), and he will pitch for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds on Wednesday (per Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Jones adds that a return as soon as April 9 or 10 is a possibility.

Keynan Middleton, another significant free agent signing this winter, is not quite as close to returning, but Worthy notes that he will begin to work off a mound on Wednesday. He was shut down with a forearm strain in mid-March.

As for the position players, Jones mentions that Lars Nootbaar took eight live at-bats today and will take another four tomorrow. Manager Oliver Marmol will meet with the outfielder to decide if he needs a rehab stint at Triple-A before coming off the IL. Nootbaar is recovering from two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs.

Tommy Edman is dealing with wrist pain following offseason surgery. Worthy reports that he is set to undergo an MRI on Wednesday. The scan will show whether or not he is ready to start ramping up his swing. Finally, Worthy notes that Dylan Carlson received an injection to help combat pain in his left shoulder. The pain is a result of a sprained AC joint that he suffered during an outfield collision in one of the final games of spring training. Barring a setback, he should be ready to get back into game action before too long.

More news from around the NL and AL Central…

• Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is being evaluated for a right shoulder injury, GM Matt Arnold told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, although it’s certainly worrisome when a catcher known for his strong arm injures his throwing shoulder. Quero is only 21 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. However, the highly-regarded catching prospect is one of three backstops on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, along with William Contreras and Gary Sánchez. If his injury proves to be serious, the team’s catching depth will be tested early in the season.
• Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher in the Guardians organization, will miss eight to 10 weeks with a hamstring strain he suffered at the end of spring training, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cantillo was unlikely to make the Guardians Opening Day roster, even if he had stayed healthy this spring. That said, he is already on the 40-man roster, and after 18 starts at Triple-A last season, he seemed like a good candidate to make his MLB debut at some point this year. That could still happen, but he’ll have to wait at least a couple of months to get that chance.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Carlson’s absence will be measured in weeks, not months. As such, while the Cardinals will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Scott, placing Carlson on the 60-day IL seemingly won’t be a consideration when determining a corresponding move.

It’s an unfortunate blow for both Carlson and the Cardinals. The club came into camp with a planned outfield of Walker in right, Tommy Edman in center and Lars Nootbaar in left. Edman and Nootbaar are each going to start the season on the IL, Edman due to lingering soreness in his wrist after last year’s arthroscopic surgery, Nootbaar due to rib fractures suffered while attempting to make a catch.

That opened the door for Carlson, who was himself been frequently beset by injuries. After a breakout season in 2021, he missed time in 2022 due to a left hamstring strain and left ankle sprain, getting capped at 128 games. Last year, the ankle issues resurfaced and he only got into 76 games, eventually requiring surgery on that ankle.

He seemed to be in good form this spring, having hit .271/.340/.521. Just as he was about to open the season with a starting center field job, a brutally timed collision will send him to the injured list once again. He will hopefully be able to get healthy and rejoin the club in just a few weeks, but it’s also possible that Edman and/or Nootbaar will be back in the mix by that point.

Carlson’s misfortune will be an opportunity for Scott. He was a fifth-round draft pick of the Cards in 2022 and came into professional baseball with strong grades for his speed and defense but concerns about his bat.

Last year, he did a lot to quiet those concerns. He played 132 games between High-A and Double-A, hitting just nine home runs and walking at just a 7.4% rate, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 15.7% clip. His combined batting line of .303/.369/.425 translated to a wRC+ of 118. He also stole a tremendous 94 bases in 108 attempts on the year.

That vaulted Scott onto prospect lists coming into 2024. Both Baseball America and FanGraphs gave him the #83 slot on their respective top 100 lists coming into this year. Keith Law of The Athletic had him up at #55, though Scott didn’t crack the lists at either MLB Pipeline or ESPN.

He has been performing well this spring, hitting .316/.409/.368 and swiping four bags. The Cards probably didn’t plan on Scott jumping to the big leagues, since he was drafted less than two years ago and has no Triple-A experience thus far, but the string of injuries suffered by their other outfielders has forced their hand. Whether Scott sticks around or is merely a placeholder until the other guys get healthy will likely depend on his performance.

Despite some decent prospect hype, Scott won’t qualify for the prospect promotion incentive of the current collective bargaining agreement. It only applies to players that are on two of three top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Since Scott only made the BA lists of those three, he doesn’t make the cut and won’t be able to provide the Cards with an extra draft pick via his placement in awards voting.

Edman, 28, has primarily been a middle infielder in the past but handled himself well in 310 innings of center field work last season, drawing plus grades from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. Defensive versatility has been one of his calling cards since he debuted in the majors, as he’s played every position other than catcher, first base and pitcher — drawing positive defensive marks everywhere he’s been.

With top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn on the cusp of MLB readiness, the Cardinals’ plan has been to move Edman to center field. Veteran Brandon Crawford was brought in as a veteran contingency plan at short in the event that Winn struggles, further cementing Edman’s role in the outfield, where he’d be flanked by Nootbaar and slugger Jordan Walker — in the event that all three are healthy.

That won’t be the case to begin the season. Edman, who missed time in 2023 with inflammation in his right wrist, continued to play through discomfort even upon returning from the injured list in 2023 and wound up undergoing arthroscopic surgery in October. The wrist injury could well have contributed to a decline in production at the plate; Edman hit .265/.324/.400 (106 wRC+) in 630 plate appearances in 2022 and got out to an even stronger start in April 2023 before his bat cratered. He was hitting .265/.339/.480 through early May but slipped to .244/.298/.378 over his final 418 trips to the plate. Edman finished out the season about eight percent worst than league-average, by measure of wRC+, with an overall batting line of .248/.307/.399.

With Edman now ruled out for Opening Day, it could be Dylan Carlson getting the nod in center field. The switch-hitter has been the subject of trade rumors for much of the past year, but the Cardinals never found an offer to their liking and will now at least temporarily turn center field back over to the former top prospect. Other outfield options on the 40-man roster include slugger Alec Burleson and defensive-minded Michael Siani.

It’s also possible that Victor Scott II, who stole a staggering 94 bases between High-A and Double-A last year, will crack the Opening Day roster. He’s had a big showing in camp, hitting .370/.469/.444 with four steals in 32 plate appearances, but Scott has also yet to play a single game above that Double-A level at which he topped out in 2023. Scott is regarded as a plus-plus defender in center field with 80-grade speed and negligible power. If he makes the club and Nootbaar joins Edman on the injured list, the Cards could put Scott’s glove in center and slide Carlson over to left field.

There are a fair number of moving parts in the St. Louis outfield mix, which has become typical for the organization over the years as they’ve struggled to retain any kind of long-term continuity in the group. Scott’s performance and Nootbaar’s health will be key storyline for the Cardinals in the final couple weeks of camp. Scott would need to be selected to the 40-man roster if he wins a spot on the Opening Day squad.

In a vacuum, neither situation is devastating for the Cards but it’s not ideal for the club to be heading into the season with two thirds of its outfield now in jeopardy. Nootbaar has taken 974 trips to the plate for the Cardinals over the past three seasons, hitting 33 home runs while drawing walks at a 14% clip and limiting his strikeouts to a 20.3% rate. His combined batting line of .246/.351/.429 translates to a wRC+ of 117, indicating he’s been 17% better than the league average hitter. He’s also swiped 17 bags and received strong grades for his outfield defense.

Removing that kind of production from the lineup would be unwelcome at any time but having him out of action at the same time as Edman would be an unfortunate coincidence. Mozeliak suggested that Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson will likely step up for the time being, per Denton.

Carlson, 25, is a strong defender but hasn’t quite broken out with the bat yet, having hit .243/.322/.394 thus far in his career for a wRC+ of 99. Burleson is generally considered a bat-first guy, though his major league production hasn’t matched his work in the minors just yet. He’s hit .300/.350/.492 on the farm but just .237/.295/.375 in the big leagues, the latter line translating to a wRC+ of 85.

With those two likely to be slotted next to Jordan Walker on a regular basis, that could bump Michael Siani up to fourth outfielder status. Siani is a speed-and-defense guy who has hit just .138/.167/.138 in his big league career. That’s a tiny sample of just 30 plate appearances but his minor league offense has also been subpar. He slashed .227/.347/.350 in Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 81.

Brendan Donovan is also on the roster and can play all over the diamond, but the club doesn’t have a regular designated hitter. That likely means Donovan will either be the DH or moving around to give someone else a partial day off most of the time. If Matt Carpenter could seize the DH job, perhaps that frees up Donovan to slot into the outfield more regularly but Carpenter is now 38 years old and hit just .176/.322/.319 for the Padres last year. Donovan also might need some infield time regardless as Brandon Crawford currently profiles as the backup infielder but he’s never played anywhere other than shortstop.

With the outfield injuries, speculation has turned to Victor Scott II, who is one of the club’s best prospects. But Mozeliak tells Denton that the club will take “a measured and patient approach” with the decision to promote him to the big leagues. Scott was just drafted in 2022 has yet to reach Triple-A, so it’s understandable the club may not want to rush him to the big leagues to cover what is likely a temporary need.

All told, there are many moving parts and there’s still a few weeks for the Cards to get everything figured out, but it’s at least somewhat concerning that health has become such a huge focus here in March. The club is looking to bounce back after a nightmare season in 2023 and is already dealing with notable injuries to two thirds of its starting outfield as well as Sonny Gray, their marquee offseason pickup, who is dealing with a hamstring strain.

An absence of any real note would be a nightmare scenario for the Cardinals. While the Cards overhauled their rotation this winter, Gray is the lone front-of-the-rotation arm the team brought in. Lance Lynn isn’t far removed from posting high-end results himself, but he’s 36 years old and coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He, like fellow mid-30s veteran Kyle Gibson, was signed more as a durable source of innings than to be a clear playoff-caliber starter.

Gray, 34, is fresh off a Cy Young runner-up finish in the American League. He pitched 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball last season, fanning 24.3% of his opponents against a 7.3% walk rate. Gray’s 2.83 FIP was a near-identical match with his ERA, though metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize home run rate, were more bearish and pegged him in the mid- to upper-3.00s. Gray’s 5.2% homer-to-flyball ratio was less than half the 12.3% career mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. The Cardinals signed him for three years and a total of $75MM back in November. He’s slated to be joined by Gibson, Lynn, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas in one of the game’s oldest rotations.

Even if Gray can’t quite replicate his 2023 performance, he’s the clear top starter on that St. Louis staff. Were he to miss time, the drop-off between Gray and his replacement would be substantial. At present, the top options to step into the staff in his stead would presumably be lefties Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom. Righties Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are both on the 40-man roster as well, though neither has made his MLB debut yet.

The Cardinals, at least thus far, haven’t brought in any veteran big league starters on non-roster deals. That’s understandable, as most players open to that type of deal would take a look at the veteran rotation in St. Louis and see a lack of opportunity — but the lack of any proven depth could also be an issue in 2024, depending on how the rest of the staff holds up.

Gray isn’t the only key member of the Cardinals who’s facing some health-related uncertainty. Tommy Edman, formerly the team’s shortstop and now slated to serve as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder, isn’t recovering from arthroscopic wrist surgery as swiftly as the team hoped. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that “internal concern is growing” that Edman might not be ready for Opening Day. Edman still hasn’t been cleared to face live pitching, Woo writes, and despite the fact that Opening Day is just over three weeks away, there’s not even a timetable for when that might happen.

Fourth outfielder Dylan Carlson would step into the starting job in center field if Edman is on the injured list to begin the season, per the report. Lars Nootbaar played plenty of center field last season, but perhaps if the plan is for him to play left field regularly when Edman is healthy this season, the team simply wants Nootbaar getting as many reps in that position as possible. Carlson’s role as a fourth outfielder would be cycling through all three spots anyhow.

Edman, 28, had a disappointing 2023 at the plate while playing through pain in that now surgically-repaired wrist for much of the season. The versatile switch-hitter spent nearly a month of the ’23 season on the injured list due to inflammation in that wrist, and when he was healthy his output at the plate dropped from .265/.324/.400 in 2022 (106 wRC+) to just .248/.307/.399 in 2023 (92 wRC+).

In the event that Edman indeed requires a stint on the injured list to begin the season, that’d open up a spot on the bench for the Cards. That wouldn’t necessarily need to be an outfielder, as utilityman Brendan Donovan is no stranger to the outfield, and as previously noted, Nootbaar can handle center field work as well. That said, an outfielder would be the most logical candidate. Lefty-swinging Michael Siani and Alec Burleson are both on the 40-man roster already and both have minor league options remaining. Siani is regarded as a plus defender in center field and would offer premium speed off the bench, while Burleson would be limited to first base and the corners but give the Cards some power that the bench currently lacks.

When asked if he still intended to step back from running baseball operations in St. Louis by the end of his current contract with the club in 2025 as he indicated last winter, Mozeliak stood by those previous comments. “I would imagine that’s going to stay pretty true,” he told Jones and other reporters. “I don’t want to sit up here on January 13 and retire, but I think having a succession plan and uncoupling some of the things I’ve been involved in at such a high level…it’s probably reasonable to think that having a different voice at some point would make a lot of sense.”

As Jones notes, the comments from Mozeliak serve to highlight the club’s recent hiring of former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom in an advisory role. While the hire was only announced earlier this week, Mozeliak indicated today that Bloom has been advising the several months and that the club’s acquisitions this offseason have been “bounce(d) off” the club’s new hire. Mozeliak went as far as to note that Bloom has factored into discussions with chairman Bill DeWitt III regarding the future of the baseball operations department following Mozeliak’s eventual move away from leading the club, though he went on to note GM Mike Girsch and scouting director Randy Flores as other potential candidates.

Mozeliak also discussed the club’s payroll in a way that seemingly leaves the door more widely open to the club making additional moves this winter than previously thought. Though DeWitt indicated recently that the club was close to reaching the limits of its budget, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out that Mozeliak left the door open to further roster additions with comments to reporters earlier today.

“The budget question always comes up. Payroll question. It’s probably not as black and white as people would like to think it is,” Mozeliak said (as relayed by Frederickson), “Depending on what the type of investment might look like, it’s something we can always take to ownership if we feel like it’s important or a good value. But do I think there is some room in the payroll if we needed to? Yes.”

The comments largely track with those Mozeliak made early in the offseason, stating that the club needed to add “at least two” high-leverage relief arms to its bullpen mix this offseason. While the addition of veteran right-hander Andrew Kittredge surely accounts for one of those additions, the club’s other bullpen additions have been less impactful. Right-handers Nick Robertson, Wilking Rodriguez, Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez all add depth to the St. Louis bullpen, the quartet has just 26 2/3 innings of combined big league experience. Plenty of quality bullpen arms who could bolster the Cardinals’ late-inning mix remain, though they’ve previously been connected to right-hander Phil Maton and left-hander Matt Moore.

In addition to those comments, Mozeliak provided updates on a trio of injured position players, noting (per Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that shortstop Tommy Edman is recovering well from the wrist surgery he underwent back in October while also adding that both outfielder Dylan Carlson and utilityman Brendan Donovan are expected to be ready for Spring Training next month. Carlson underwent ankle surgery back in September, while Donovan underwent surgery on his elbow on August 2.

The healthy return of that trio of players figures to be crucial for the Cardinals as they look to rebound from a 71-91 record that saw them finish last in the NL Central last season. Edman provides the club with valuable versatility thanks to his ability to capably handle both shortstop and center field on an everyday basis, while Donovan’s .365 on-base percentage in 95 games last year trailed only Lars Nootbaar’s .367 figure among qualified Cardinals. Carlson, meanwhile, struggled badly in 2023 but could join Nootbaar and Jordan Walker as one of the club’s regular outfielders entering 2024 as he looks to recapture the form he flashed in 2021, when hit .266/.343/.437 in 619 trips to the plate while roving between all three outfield spots.

In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning (video link), Mozeliak again touched on his trade talks regarding the outfield, admitting that it would be “a surprise” if some trade involving one of his outfielders doesn’t come together. Specifically, Mozeliak said he hopes to upgrade his bullpen next, whether via the trade of an outfielder or other means.

10:29am: Tyler O’Neill’s status as a potential trade candidate isn’t exactly a well-kept secret. Heading into the winter, it’s been widely expected that the Cardinals would listen to trade offers on both O’Neill and fellow outfielder Dylan Carlson. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak removed any doubt about the likelihood of an O’Neill trade in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM from this week’s Winter Meetings (video link).

“In the outfield, right now, if we were to play tomorrow it’d likely be [Lars Nootbaar], Tommy Edman and [Jordan Walker],” said Mozeliak. “Our fourth outfielder would be Dylan Carlson. … Tyler O’Neill is somebody that we are listening to on trades.”

Mozeliak added that he’s received “a lot of hits” on his outfielders in general, but O’Neill was the only one he specifically highlighted as a potential trade piece. The Cards have been against moving Nootbaar for some time now, and it stands to reason that there’s similar reluctance to consider moving Walker, who entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects and posted a .291/.358/.478 slash following the trade deadline.

O’Neill, 28, has ostensibly become an odd man out of the group. While the Cardinals could play Edman in the infield and thus open more playing time for O’Neill, the arrival of prospects like shortstop Masyn Winn, second baseman Nolan Gorman and utilityman Brendan Donovan have crowded the infield outlook as well. Winn, 21, didn’t hit well in last season’s MLB debut (.172/.230/.238), but that came in a sample of just 137 plate appearances — and Mozeliak specifically mentioned him in his MLB Network Radio appearance when describing his infield mix as “pretty solid” with Winn at short, Gorman/Donovan at second base and veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at the corners.

All signs seem to point to a potential trade of  O’Neill, who as recently as 2021 slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers and Gold Glove defense in left field but has since mustered just a .229/.310/.397 slash in 169 games. Injuries have played a significant factor in those struggles; O’Neill had an IL stint due to a shoulder impingement and a pair of IL stints for hamstring strains during the 2022 season. His 2023 campaign included a trip to the 60-day injured list for a lower back strain and a later return to the IL for a foot sprain.

There’s little doubt that a healthy O’Neill has game-changing power, but O’Neill simply hasn’t been healthy enough in his big league career. He played in 50 games during the shortened 2020 season and 138 games in 2021 but has otherwise rarely been on the field for the majority of a given season. That 2021 campaign is the only time he’s ever reached 100 games played or reached 400 big league plate appearances.

O’Neill is slated to become a free agent at season’s end and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM this coming season. The power is clearly legitimate, but he’s been a bit below average at the plate overall throughout these two most recent, injury-riddled seasons. He still grades as a plus defender in left field and is an above-average runner. As far as change-of-scenery candidates go, O’Neill is a fairly appealing one, but the litany of injuries, minimal club control and limited recent track record at the plate will all coalesce to tamp down his value in a trade.