Smyly, 35, pitched to a 3.84 ERA in 58 2/3 innings over 50 relief appearances with the Cubs this past season, but that solid earned run average was accompanied by more worrying rate stats. The southpaw’s strikeout rate dipped to 21.8% while his walk rate spiked to a 9.7% mark that stands as the second-worst of his career. He also yielded an average of 1.53 homers per nine innings pitched and surrendered his highest hard-hit rate (38.2%) and average exit velocity (89.2 mph) since 2020. His 11.3% swinging-strike rate was his lowest since 2019.

When the Cubs signed Smyly, they did so with an eye toward a potential rotation spot. He indeed started 23 games for them in 2023, the first season of his two-year $19MM pact, but he didn’t make a single appearance out of the rotation in 2024. Chicago’s rotation mix includes Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks, with promising prospect Cade Horton on the horizon. Allocating $10MM to a swingman coming off diminished strikeout/walk rates and with ongoing home run issues wasn’t something on which the team was keen, clearly.

Be that as it may, Smyly should find another big league deal in free agency. He has extensive experience both as a starter and reliever, so a club with some uncertainty in the fourth or fifth spot of the rotation could look to Smyly as an affordable early-season rotation piece who could move to the ’pen if younger arms force the issue. Other teams might simply view Smyly as an intriguing option in a market light on quality left-handed relievers.

In situations like this, the team is hoping that the player will be claimed to offload the salary. That’d be a big ask in this case. Smyly is playing on a $10.5MM salary. There’s around $1.9MM remaining. The deal also includes a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for next season. A claiming team would need to assume the entirety of that sum. It amounts to nearly $4.5MM for one month plus potential playoff work of Smyly’s services.

The 35-year-old southpaw has turned in solid results in his first full season as a reliever. Smyly carries a 2.84 ERA over 50 2/3 frames. His 20.4% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike percentage are pedestrian, but he has kept left-handed hitters to a .226/.293/.310 slash in 92 plate appearances.

There’s not much downside for the Cubs in gauging if a contender is willing to take on Smyly’s money to strengthen their lefty relief group. Chicago is 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to surpass. They’re a postseason long shot. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer confirmed last week that the team is on pace to exceed the $237MM luxury tax threshold (link via Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic). It’s not clear how far over the threshold they are, but RosterResource’s unofficial estimate of the team’s payroll has them less than $500K above the line. If they could shed what remains of Smyly’s salary, it’s possible that would suffice to get underneath the CBT mark.

If Smyly goes unclaimed, the Cubs can keep him in the bullpen for the remainder of the season. They do not need to release him or attempt to outright him to the minor leagues.

The addition of Paredes, who is controllable through the end of the 2027 season, doesn’t necessarily go against that stated ethos. The same can be said for the club’s acquisition of Blue Jays reliever Nate Pearson, who is controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. It appears the Cubs may be interested in adding pieces that aren’t set to remain with the club long-term, however, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested this afternoon that the Cubs are among the teams showing interest in Giants lefty Blake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner got off to a rough start this year but has begun to right the ship in recent weeks, leading The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to suggest yesterday that teams view Snell as likely to opt out of the remainder of his contract at season’s end.

That reported interest in Snell is somewhat surprising, particularly given the fact that the Cubs have seemingly been fielding interest on veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon in recent weeks. The starting rotation has been an undeniable strength for the Cubs this year, as their 3.72 rotation ERA ranks 6th in the majors thanks primarily to elite performances from Taillon, Justin Steele, and Shota Imanaga. While adding a pitcher of Snell’s caliber would surely bolster the club’s rotation and could even allow the club to deal Taillon without suffering a short-term dip in production, the fact that clubs seemingly view Snell as more likely than not to head back to free agency this fall seems to directly contradict the club’s stated plan to focus on the future this summer.

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handers Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. as well as southpaw Drew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

Neris, who has posted an uneven season with a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 FIP this year, has a $9MM team option in his contract that will convert into a $9MM player option in the event that he reaches either 60 appearances or 45 games finished this year. With 39 appearances and 27 games finished so far this year, both benchmarks are within the realm of possibility, and Sharma suggests that this aspect of his contract “complicates” the possibility of a trade. Smyly, who sports a 2.79 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work this year, has a much less complicated contractual situation; his contract comes with a $10MM mutual option that is certain to be declined by one side or the other in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular. The 33-year-old’s 4.37 ERA this year is unspectacular, but his massive 34.5% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.18 FIP, and the fact that he can be controlled through the end of the 2026 season all could make him a very appealing addition for contenders in search of relief help. As for Merryweather, the 32-year-old has been injured much of this year but is now healthy, sports a 3.33 ERA and 3.44 FIP since joining the Cubs prior to the 2023 campaign, and comes with the same two additional season of club control that Leiter does.

Another consideration for the Cubs, whether they’re adding or subtracting from the current roster, figures to be the luxury tax. Chicago currently sports a luxury tax payroll of just under $234MM according to RosterResource, a figure that puts them a little more than $3MM under the first threshold of the luxury tax. The addition of a player with a hefty salary like Snell would surely put them well beyond that threshold, while dealing a player like Taillon or even a less expensive relief arm like Neris or Smyly would likely offer the Cubs additional breathing room below the tax threshold. Given the fact that Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts suggested back in February that the “natural” place for the club’s payroll to land was right up against the tax threshold, it would be something of a shock for ownership to greenlight spending beyond the luxury tax in a year where the club evidently is not expecting to make the postseason.

While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.

As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.

Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.

The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.

With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.

The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.

It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.

For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.

Swanson has been on the injured list for just over a week due to a right knee sprain, although he had been playing through the issue since he first suffered the injury back on April 25. In the 13 contests he appeared in from April 25 onward before hitting the shelf, Swanson slashed an anemic .159/.229/.227 at the plate while committed two errors in the field. If those struggles were the result of the injury, the 30-year-old’s return to action figures to offer a huge boost to the Cubs as evidenced by a strong 2023 campaign where he slashed a respectable .244/.328/.416 (104 wRC+) while playing elite defense at shortstop.

The absence of Swanson has been exacerbated by a bout of hamstring tightness that has sidelined second baseman Nico Hoerner, who is an above-average defensive shortstop in his own right and had been handling the position in place of Swanson prior to his own injury. Hoerner, who has impressed with a solid .269/.361/.391 slash line (119 wRC+) to this point in the 2024 campaign, has not yet been placed on the injured list despite the fact that the Cubs aren’t certain when he’ll be able to return to action. Counsell indicated to reporters (including Williams) that if Hoerner isn’t ready to play tomorrow the club will likely wait until Tuesday to make an IL decision regarding Hoerner thanks to their day off on Monday.

The Cubs have missed their typical double play combo dearly, as they’ve been forced to rely on utility infielders Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madrigal as their fill-in options at shortstop and second base, respectively. The duo have managed wRC+ figures of just 35 and 62 respectively while offering nowhere near the Gold Glove award-winning skills of Swanson and Hoerner. Shortstop prospect Luis Vazquez has hit fairly well at the Triple-A level this season despite his glove-first reputation and is already on the club’s 40-man roster, making him a possible alternative should Hoerner require a trip to the shelf.

Looking toward the pitching staff, Counsell provided good news to reporters today as he noted that lefties Drew Smyly and Jordan Wicks both threw bullpen sessions on Friday and are nearing rehab assignments. Smyly appears to be slightly further along between the two, as Counsell indicated that he expected the lefty to begin his rehab assignment “early next week” without identifying a specific timeline regarding Wicks. The return of both southpaws figures to significantly bolster Chicago’s starting pitching depth; Wicks had a 4.70 ERA and a strong 3.26 FIP in five starts prior to hitting the shelf with a forearm strain, while Smyly began the season in the bullpen but has made at least 22 starts for the Cubs in each of the past two seasons.

That starting pitching depth figures to be particularly valuable to the Cubs given the deep struggles of veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks. The 34-year-old soft-tosser was lit up to the tune of a 12.00 ERA and 7.70 FIP in five starts this season before he was sidelined by a low back strain in late April. He returned from the shelf last week and appeared to have potentially turned a corner after throwing five innings of one-run ball against the Pirates, but a start yesterday against those same Pirates proved to be disastrous as he surrendered eight runs (seven earned) on a whopping eleven hits in just 4 2/3 innings of work.

Asked about Hendricks’s deep struggles after yesterday’s game, Counsell made clear to reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) that the Cubs need more from the right-hander going forward.

“We certainly need better,” Counsell said of Hendricks’s performance this year. “That’s not going to work. And that’s not going to be good enough.”

When asked if Hendricks will remain in the rotation going forward, Counsell noted that the club is dealing with a number of pitching injuries and is “going to need innings,” but also acknowledged that the club will need to “see what’s going on” regarding the veteran righty. Speculatively speaking, it’s easy to imagine the return of Wicks and Smyly offering the Cubs the sort of healthy pitching depth they’d need, alongside Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown, to more seriously consider moving on from their longest-tenured player should Hendricks’s results not improve.

Hendricks, 34, has been out to an awful start this year. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at the righty’s struggles, before Hendricks made his most recent start. As of right now, Hendricks has logged 21 innings this year over five starts. He has allowed 28 earned runs in that time, leading to an eye-popping earned run average of 12.00.

He’s never been a huge strikeout guy but his 15.1% rate this year is lower than any season since his 2014 debut. It’s possible there’s some bad luck at play, with Hendricks having allowed a .392 batting average on balls in play. He’s also stranding only 50.3% of runners while a third of his fly balls have gone over the fence. His 7.75 FIP and 4.44 SIERA each suggest that he has deserved better, though to very different degrees. That’s due to FIP counting home runs as the pitcher’s fault whereas SIERA gives more weight to batted ball data as opposed to actual results.

Hendricks is likely due for at least some normalization of his extreme results to this point in the season, but there will have to be a waiting period of at least a few weeks before the details of that correction are revealed. Per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Hendricks felt his back bothering him before his start on Sunday and continued to feel it during the outing. The severity of the issue isn’t clear but he’ll have to miss at least a couple of weeks.

The Cubs will now have to figure out who joins the rotation alongside Shota Imanaga, Jordan Wicks, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad. Tonight marks the start of a stretch where they play 16 games in a row before their next off-day. Smyly has plenty of starting experience and could have been a candidate for such a job, but he’s now on the IL himself.

Wesneski has been working in a swing role for the club in recent years and could perhaps make a few starts. Ben Brown has been pitching multi-inning stints this year and would be another option. Veteran Julio Teheran was signed to a minor league deal last week and gives them a non-roster option. Due to Cooper being designated for assignment, there’s now an opening on the 40-man roster.

The Cubs came into camp with a front four of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga and Taillon, with one spot available for guys like Wicks, Assad, Smyly, Hayden Wesneski or Caleb Kilian. In early March, Kilian was diagnosed with a teres major strain and will be out for several months, taking him out of the competition.

Taillon was dealt much smaller issues but they nonetheless slowed his progression. He initially had some soreness is his calves and that was followed by some lower back tightness. He still has not appeared in an official Spring Training game and will begin the season on the IL. He told Bruce Levine of WSCR on the weekend that he was planning to throw off a mound this week, which shows some progress, but he’s likely still a few weeks away from readiness.

With Taillon out of action, there were two open spots at the back of the rotation, which will go to Wicks and Assad. Wicks is one of the club’s top pitching prospects and he made his major league debut last year with a 4.41 earned run average in seven starts. In 91 1/3 innings of minor league work, he had a 3.55 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

He only struck out 16.3% of hitters in his first taste of the majors, but in a fairly small sample of 34 2/3 innings. For what it’s worth, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA this spring, though with a modest 16.9% strikeout rate. But he has also limited his walks to 2.8% and it’s a small sample of 17 1/3 innings. He’ll get a chance to take a step forward at the major league level to start the season. He still has a full slate of options, so the Cubs could easily send him back to the minors when Taillon is healthy if they so choose.

Assad has a bit more experience, having served in a swing role for the Cubs over the past two years. He has a 3.06 ERA in 147 innings over 41 appearances, including 18 starts. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate are both slightly worse than league average but he’s kept 44.7% of balls in play on the ground and was in the 78th percentile of qualified pitchers last year in terms of average exit velocity. He has allowed seven earned runs in nine innings this spring. He has a couple of options and could wind up in the minors later but the Cubs have used him as a long reliever out of the bullpen in the past.

That long relief role could perhaps be taken by Smyly, who was also in that role for a time last year. The Cubs signed him to a two-year, $19MM deal last offseason but he struggled in 2023 and wound up moving to the bullpen on multiple occasions. He finished last year with an even ERA of 5.00, but it was 5.62 as a starter and 2.51 out of the ’pen. That latter number was in a small sample of 28 2/3 innings but the Cubs will be hoping his stuff will play up in shorter stints. Spring results are to be taken with a grain of salt but he hasn’t done much to win back a rotation job lately, with a 7.71 ERA, 15.1% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 11 2/3 innings.

His past experience as a starter could have him working multi-innings stints as a reliever, but he could also be utilized as a situational lefty. The only other southpaw reliever currently on the roster is Luke Little, who has just 6 2/3 innings of major league experience and notable control issues in the minors.

As for the catchers, it’s not too surprising they won’t make the club. The Cubs have Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya set to be their primary catching tandem. Gomes is a 12-year veteran coming off a solid season while Amaya has been a notable prospect for a while and made his major league debut last year. It’s unclear if either Alfaro or Hudson have opt-outs in their minor league deals, but it seems they will be staying in camp for the time being.

There wasn’t much suspense with the decision. Smyly wasn’t going to beat $11MM in guarantees on the open market. The veteran southpaw had a tough 2023 campaign, allowing five earned runs per nine across 142 1/3 innings. The Cubs moved him to the bullpen in mid-August as his struggles mounted. Smyly fared well in relief, working to a 2.51 ERA through 28 2/3 innings.

That’s perhaps the ideal role for him to assume in 2024. The Cubs have Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon locked into three rotation spots. They’re likely to add at least one arm this winter to replace Marcus Stroman, who opted out of his contract. Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski headline the remaining options for back-end roles.

With Smyly officially back in the fold, Roster Resource projects the Cubs’ 2024 player payroll around $178MM. They’re at roughly $186MM in luxury tax obligations, around $50MM shy of the threshold. Chicago opened the ’23 campaign with a payroll around $184MM.

It’s a moderate surprise, as Smyly was generally expected to hold onto a rotation spot after Marcus Stroman’s recent injury setback. The Cubs had used Smyly three times in relief last week but gave him the start on Tuesday in Detroit. That outing didn’t go well — the Tigers saddled him with a loss by plating seven runs in 3 2/3 innings — and the Cubs have decided to return him to a relief role.

Smyly had worked a scoreless inning in each of the aforementioned three bullpen appearances. That’s far too small a sample on which to draw any conclusions, particularly given a generally weak slate of opponents (Blue Jays, White Sox and Royals). Moving him to long relief allows manager David Ross to deploy Smyly in lower-leverage situations than he’d have taken on as a starter.

It’s certainly not the result the Cubs envisioned when re-signing the veteran southpaw last offseason. Smyly had turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 frames a season ago. The Cubs guaranteed him $19MM over two years on a deal that also allows him to opt out at the end of this season. Smyly hasn’t come close to replicating last season’s run prevention, allowing 5.28 earned runs per nine across 124 1/3 innings.

On the one hand, the front office likely anticipated some amount of regression. Smyly had a below-average 20.4% strikeout rate a season ago, leading to estimators like SIERA (4.06) and FIP (4.23) that were above his actual ERA. They certainly wouldn’t have anticipated his ERA jumping by almost two runs, though. Smyly’s 21.2% strikeout percentage is actually a touch better than last season’s, but his walks are up slightly and he has had a very tough time keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed 1.81 homers per nine, the seventh-highest rate among pitchers with 100+ frames.

The Cubs are through seven days in a stretch of 13 consecutive game days. The quartet of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad comprises the rotation. Chicago will have to find another solution for Sunday. They could try to patch things together with a bullpen game, though that’d run the risk of straining the pitching staff in advance of a crucial three-game series against the Brewers that begins the following day. Righty Hayden Wesneski is on the MLB roster and has starting experience; he struggled out of the rotation early in the year and has been working 2-3 inning relief stints of late.

If Chicago wanted to look to the minor leagues, they could go outside the 40-man roster. Prospect Ben Brown has been on the Triple-A injured list for three weeks. The Cubs optioned righty Caleb Kilian back to Iowa on August 15. Pitchers must spend at least 15 days on an optional stint before they can be recalled unless they’re brought back in conjunction with an IL transaction. The only way the Cubs could turn to Kilian by Sunday is if they place someone else on the shelf.

2021 first-round pick Jordan Wicks and former Marlins righty Nick Neidert are among the non-roster players starting games for Iowa. Chicago would have to select either player’s contract but has a pair of openings on the 40-man roster to accommodate a move if they so choose.

Stroman, 32, was excellent for his first 16 starts this season, pitching to a 2.28 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate, an 8.8% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. His .235 average on balls in play and 80.2% strand rate both appeared bound for regression, but not to the extent that transpired. In his next seven starts, Stroman was shelled for 30 runs in 30 innings. His strikeout rate dipped to 18.8% and his grounder rate fell to 52.9% — all while his walk rate spiked up to 10.9%.

Overall, Stroman’s 3.85 ERA in 128 2/3 innings is still a solid mark on the season — one that likely puts him in position to turn down his 2024 player option at season’s end. Stroman could pick up said option and lock in a $21MM salary for the upcoming season, but he’s far likelier to return to free agency in search of another multi-year contract (which he’ll very likely find). The right-hander sports a 3.35 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 53.3% ground-ball rate over his past 630 2/3 big league innings, dating back to 2019. He’s also already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive another one. As such, teams interested in signing the righty won’t have to worry about draft-pick compensation.

Stroman’s impending return to the rotation comes at a time when the Cubs have been shuffling the starting staff. The Cubs bumped left-hander Drew Smyly to the bullpen over the weekend, though Ross told reporters that the move would only be “for a short amount of time” (link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). The hope will be that moving into relief work for a bit will give the struggling lefty something of a reset. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy noted that “getting guys in the bullpen in short bursts to reset and get your mind back into attacking the strike zone and simplifying things” can sometimes help pitchers turn a corner.

It’s indeed been a rough patch for the 34-year-old Smyly, who returned to the Cubs on a two-year, $19MM contract in the offseason. Like Stroman, Smyly was excellent through mid-June, notching a 3.38 ERA in 82 2/3 innings. And like Stroman, Smyly went on to pitch to a jarring 9.00 ERA over his next several starts (seven appearances, 35 innings). Smyly’s strikeout and walk rates remained sound — his strikeout rate actually increased — but he’s been extraordinarily homer-prone during this slump, yielding an average of 3.09 round-trippers per nine innings pitched. Smyly owned his struggles and said he’s willing to pitch in whatever role the team wants; he tossed a scoreless inning this weekend in his first relief appearance of the year.

With Stroman returning and Smyly shifting into the ’pen for the time being, rookie Javier Assad could continue to see some work out of the rotation. The 26-year-old’s last two appearances have been starts, and he’s allowed a pair of runs on nine hits and three walks with five strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. Assad has a 3.12 ERA on the season, though his pedestrian 18.1% strikeout rate and hefty 10.5% walk rate point to some possible regression. For now, he’s in the mix alongside Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the Cubs — a well-timed resurgence that brought the team from the brink of selling at the trade deadline to instead adding infielder Jeimer Candelario and righty Jose Cuas. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chronicled the team’s rise from likely seller to clear-cut buyer in a piece that Cubs fans, in particular, will want to check out in full. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer discussed the team’s approach with Rosenthal, revealing that the Cubs told inquiring clubs they planned to wait until concluding a four-game series with the Cardinals on July 30 before making a call on their approach.

The second game of that series ended in dramatic fashion, with Cubs outfielder Mike Tauchman robbing Alec Burleson of what would’ve been a walk-off home run. That catch seemingly sealed the Cubs’ direction. It was reported the next day that Cody Bellinger had been taken off the trade market. Hoyer tells Rosenthal that over the course of the weekend, the tone and nature of incoming calls from other clubs quickly changed. Less than 72 hours after Tauchman’s catch, the Cubs acquired Candelario from the Nationals. Rosenthal’s column is full of quotes from Hoyer, Ross, Tauchman, Dansby Swanson, Yan Gomes and others on the team’s rise from a 26-36 club mid-June to their current 61-57 record. The Cubs are 3.5 games out of first place in the Central and just a half-game back the Wild Card standings.

Dec 22, 8:01pm: The deal also allows Smyly to opt out at the end of next season, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Smyly will have to weigh a return trip to free agency against the $11MM remaining on the contract next offseason.

7:52pm: The Cubs are bringing back Drew Smyly, agreeing with the free agent starter on a two-year deal. It’s reportedly a $19MM guarantee for the Frontline client. Smyly will make successive salaries of $8MM and $8.5MM, and the contract contains at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.

Smyly returns after spending the 2022 season in Chicago. It was technically his second stint as a Cub, as he’d previously been a member of the organization in 2018. He spent that entire season rehabbing from a previous Tommy John surgery, though, and the Cubs dealt him to the Rangers over the 2018-19 offseason. After three years elsewhere, he returned to Chicago last winter on a $5.25MM guarantee.

The left-hander had a decent showing in 2022, working to a 3.47 ERA through 22 starts. He lost a month in the middle of the year to a left oblique strain but otherwise stayed healthy and absorbed 106 1/3 innings. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents but only walked 5.8% of batters faced. Smyly held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and induced swinging strikes on a solid 12.4% of his offerings. That quality per-pitch swinging strike rate could portend a future uptick in strikeouts. Smyly has punched out 23.2% of opponents over the course of his career, although he’s seen his lowest marks in the last two years.

Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this past season, though. He absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line with two homers allowed through 101 plate appearances. Righties gave him some more trouble, taking him deep 14 times and posting a .258/.301/.448 mark in 346 trips to the dish.

The 33-year-old has had some injury troubles throughout his career, including the aforementioned Tommy John procedure. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. Smyly is not a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.

That solid rate production clearly appeals to president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. Smyly finished the 2022 season strong and earned a multi-year deal as a result, with the guarantee narrowly topping the $17MM contract Jordan Lyles received from the Royals this week. The starting pitching market generally has been quite strong, and Smyly continues that trend with a $9.5MM average annual value to slot at the back of the Chicago rotation.

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal earlier in the offseason. He’ll join Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and presumably Smyly as locks for the season-opening starting staff. Kyle Hendricks figures to have a rotation job whenever he’s healthy, although his status is somewhat up in the air after his 2022 season was cut short by a shoulder issue. Players like Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and Adrian Sampson could be in the mix throughout the season as depth options. Thompson held his own over 17 starts this past season, while Wesneski and Kilian are among the better pitching prospects in the Chicago organization.

Tacking on Smyly’s $8MM salary to the 2023 payroll ledger brings the team’s projected payroll around $179MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re now around $107MM in guarantees for the ’24 campaign. Chicago isn’t quite back to the $200MM+ range they reached towards the end of the last decade, but they’re notably past the $140MM – 150MM range of the last two seasons. The deal adds $9.5MM to the club’s luxury tax ledger in both 2023-24; they’re now up to approximately $213MM in CBT spending for next season, $20MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Cubs and Smyly were closing in on a deal. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Cubs and Smyly had agreed to a two-year, $19MM contract and specified the financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Smyly initially joined the Cubs after the 2021 season on a one-year, $4.25MM contract with a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual contract for the 2023 season, which Smyly declined, and $2.5MM in potential incentives. He would go on to make 22 starts, pitching to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 innings with a slightly below-average 2o.4% strikeout rate but paired with a low 5.8% walk rate. Interestingly, despite ranking poorly in fastball velocity (20th percentile), fastball spin (24th percentile), and curve spin (8th percentile), Smyly posted a chase rate in the 77th percentile and limited hard hits (69th percentile).

Since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017, Smyly has become a mercenary swingman, spending the 2019 season with the Rangers, joining the Brewers on a minor league deal in 2019 before finishing the season with the Phillies, spending the shortened 2020 year with the Giants, winning a World Series ring with the Braves during the 2021 season, and then joining the Cubs last winter. Over these four years, Smyly has made 71 starts (83 appearances) and pitched to a 4.65 ERA in 373 1/3 regular-season innings with a 22.9% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.

The nine-year veteran will rejoin a rotation that includes Marcus Stroman, recent signee Jameson Taillon, and Justin Steele. Kyle Hendricks will likely have a spot on manager David Ross’s staff, but the 30-year-old had yet to begin a throwing program as of late October after suffering a mid-season capsular tear.

The financial terms of the agreement are not yet clear. The Cubs presently have around $181MM in estimated commitments for 2023, not including Smyly, per Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger is around $203MM, leaving the possibility of adding with the base tax threshold set at $233MM.

It’s virtually a formality that every mutual option will be declined by one side, and Smyly’s decision doesn’t register as much of a surprise. He’s likely to look for a multi-year deal this winter. The veteran southpaw is coming off a decent season for Chicago, pitching to a 3.47 ERA through 106 1/3 innings over 22 starts. His 20.4% strikeout rate was a hair below average, but he only walked 5.8% of opposing hitters and had a solid 12.4% swinging strike rate.

Smyly and the Cubs reportedly kicked around extension talks last month. Obviously, nothing has come to fruition, but Bastian notes the Cubs are still interested in keeping the 33-year-old around. They’ll retain exclusive negotiating rights through Thursday evening, but it looks likely the Frontline client will soon be in contact with other clubs with no extension in place.

Chicago doesn’t have a ton of certainty behind Marcus Stroman in their season-opening rotation. Kyle Hendricks figures to assume a spot if healthy; he’s yet to begin a throwing program after his 2022 season was cut short by a capsule tear in his throwing shoulder, although the Cubs aren’t concerned about his availability for Spring Training. Justin Steele looks like a rotation lock, but Chicago’s likely to seek upgrades over Adrian Sampson and Keegan Thompson at the back end. Even if they manage to retain Smyly, they figure to explore a deep starting pitching free agent class.

Theoretically, a team will only exercise its end of a mutual option if it feels the price is at or below the player’s market value. The player, conversely, will typically only trigger his end if he feels the option price is at or above what he could find on the open market. Thus, mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. In the vast majority of cases, players with mutual options are essentially impending free agents.

That’s the case for Smyly, but there’s a chance he doesn’t remain unsigned until free agency. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the Cubs are planning to meet with the left-hander’s representatives at Frontline later this month to discuss a potential new contract. Lee notes it’s unlikely Smyly will return on the terms of the mutual option itself but it’s possible the sides can line up on a new deal. As is the case with all impending free agents, the Cubs will have an exclusive negotiating window with Smyly until five days after the end of the World Series.

Smyly has technically had a pair of stints as a Cub, although he didn’t throw a pitch with Chicago until 2022. He signed a two-year deal heading into the 2018 season, with the Cubs aware he’d miss all of that season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. After the ’18 campaign, Chicago dealt him to the Rangers. Smyly pitched for four different teams from 2019-21 before returning to the Cubs on a one-year deal this spring. He received a $4.25MM salary for this past season and will be guaranteed another $1MM on the option buyout.

The 33-year-old had a generally solid return season to the North Siders. He missed a month mid-summer with a right oblique strain, but he otherwise stayed healthy enough to take the ball 22 times. Across 106 1/3 innings, Smyly posted a 3.47 ERA. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents, leading to less favorable reviews from fielding independent estimators. On the plus side, he only walked 5.8% of batters faced (below the 7.5% league average for starters) and held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity. Smyly’s 12.4% swinging strike rate was an above-average mark that suggests he was somewhat unfortunate to generate his mediocre strikeout percentage, and he absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line through 101 plate appearances.

Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this season, though, and he’s generally posted solid strikeout and walk numbers throughout his career. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. He’s not been a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.

The Cubs didn’t seem to aggressively market and/or find much trade interest in Smyly this summer. Despite his being a rental on a non-competitive team, there weren’t many public trade rumors leading up to the deadline. Smyly pitched to a sparkling 2.28 ERA in nine starts after the deadline, however, sending him towards free agency on the heels of a strong final couple months.

Whether that’ll be enough for the Arkansas product to find a multi-year deal heading into his age-34 season remains to be seen. Alex Cobb received a two-year, $20MM pact at the same age last winter. Cobb was coming off 98 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball through 18 starts. He had a similar swinging strike rate in 2021 as Smyly did this season, but Cobb finished off more strikeouts and had an excellent 53.3% grounder rate. It seems unlikely Smyly will get quite to that level as a result, but there’s recent precedent for a multi-year deal for a pitcher coming off a broadly similar showing at the same age.

As another recent comparison point, Corey Kluber landed a one-year, $8MM guarantee (with incentives that could take the deal’s value to $13MM) after pitching 80 innings with a 3.83 ERA and a 12.5% swinging strike percentage last year. Kluber, a two-time Cy Young winner, has had a far more accomplished career than Smyly, but his 2021 production wasn’t far off Smyly’s 2022 numbers.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer didn’t address contract specifics, but he did broadly suggest the Cubs would have interest in retaining both Smyly and Miley. “With both guys, in the right setup, we’d love to have them back,” Hoyer told reporters this afternoon (via Lee). “They both have a really positive impact on the organization. And there’s no finish line when it comes to adding guys that can make starts in the big leagues and that can add to your culture.”

Among in-house options, the Cubs are certain to pencil Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks into the Opening Day rotation. Left-hander Justin Steele pitched well enough through 24 starts to likely earn a spot as well, but the back of the rotation is mostly up for grabs. Hayden Wesneski, acquired from the Yankees in the Scott Effross deadline deal, pitched well through his first four big league starts. He’s in the mix with Keegan Thompson and journeyman Adrian Sampson for back-end roles, but there’s certainly an opportunity for Hoyer and his staff to bolster the group this offseason.

Zooming out, the Cubs are taking stock of what kind of talent they have on hand this season, with Suzuki presumably a part of the long-term outfield picture, along with rookie Christopher Morel and veteran Ian Happ, though Morel and Happ both have enough versatility to move around the diamond a bit. Another piece of that long-term position player picture is second baseman Nick Madrigal, who plans on taking live batting practice on Tuesday, notes Bastian. Madrigal missed three weeks with a back issue and returned to the lineup for just under two weeks before landing back on the shelf with a groin strain that’s kept him out of action for another three weeks.

This season was supposed to be a time for Madrigal to establish himself along with Nico Hoerner as the middle infield of the future in Chicago. Madrigal wasn’t hitting much, with just a 45 wRC+ through 115 plate appearances. That said, he wasn’t having much batted ball luck (.264 BABIP). He was striking out a little more than usual – though with a 14.3 percent strikeout rate, he was still putting the ball in play far more often than the average Major Leaguer. It’s a small sample size on which to judge Madrigal, and the Cubs would love to see him return soon to start taking ABs back from David Bote and Andrelton Simmons.

First baseman Frank Schwindelwill join Madrigal for some batting practice on Tuesday as he aims to return from a couple of weeks away with a lower back strain. Swindel’s long-term role on the Cubs is less obvious, given that he’s already 30 years old, but he’s also not likely to be arbitration-eligible until the 2025 season. Schwindel could turn into an interesting trade piece, but he’ll have to hit better upon his return. Currently, Frank the Tank owns just an 83 wRC+ on the year. As a right-handed first baseman/designated hitter, Schwindel will need to hit in order to generate much value, be that on the diamond or in a trade.

On the other side of the ball, the Cubs have a pair of starting pitchers in Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly who will make rehab starts this week. Smyly begins his rehab with a start in Single-A on Monday, while Stroman is closer to returning to Wrigley, pitching for the Iowa Cubs in Triple-A. All of the Cubs’ veteran additions to the rotation have struggled to stay healthy this season, with Stroman and Smyly making nine starts apiece thus far, while Wade Miley has taken the hill just four times.