Williams has been one of the game’s most dominant relievers since making his debut. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year ranks in the top-three of all big league pitchers (min. 200 innings) in both ERA (1.83, second) and strikeout rate (39.4%, third) since coming into the league.

Detractors might point to Williams surrendering what was effectively a season-ending home run to Pete Alonso against the Mets in the NLDS, but it’s rare for the righty to falter in that manner. Since 2020, his first full big league season, no pitcher in baseball has a higher win probability added than Williams. He’s been placed into 138 save/hold situations in his career and only blown the opportunity 10 times. Broadly speaking, Williams has done his best work in high-leverage spots, that lasting memory from the ’24 postseason notwithstanding.

A pitcher with Williams’ stuff and track record should have the opportunity to command one of the largest deals ever for a reliever next winter — provided he maintains that standard in his first season with the Yankees. Williams will pitch nearly all of this season at 30 years of age, turning 31 in September. Age and perhaps some health questions — he missed three months in 2024 with multiple stress fractures in his back — might keep him from quite reaching the same heights that Edwin Diaz (five years, $102MM) and his former teammate Hader (five years, $95MM) reached in free agency. Diaz was 29 in the first year of his contract. Hader was 30.

Still, Williams could reasonably expect to command at least four years, if not five, and he’d be able to push into the rarefied air of $16-20MM average annual values for relievers that have only been attainable for the game’s truly elite stoppers over the past few years. Diaz, Hader, Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are the only relievers to command multi-year deals with AAVs of $16MM or more.

Whether the two sides will actually get into serious negotiations is an open question, but Williams’ ostensible openness is of some note. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in his final arbitration this coming season, and one would presume he and his reps at Klutch Sports are eyeing an annual salary of $18MM or more for his free agent seasons. It’d be a costly endeavor, but the Yankees have been willing to make huge commitments to the bullpen in the past (e.g. Chapman, Zack Britton).

Elsewhere in the Yankee bullpen is another potentially dominant arm: righty Jonathan Loaisiga. The Yanks more quietly re-signed the Nicaraguan-born righty this month. He’s currently eight months removed from an internal brace procedure to repair a UCL tear in his right elbow. Pitching coach Matt Blake told reporters today, including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, that the aim is for Loaisiga to be back in the Yankees’ big league bullpen by late April or early May.

The 30-year-old Loaisiga has only reached 50 innings in one big league season but has been excellent when healthy enough to take the ball. Dating back to 2020, the oft-injured righty sports a 2.98 ERA with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but a strong 6.5% walk rate and an elite 58% ground-ball rate. Since largely shelving his four-seamer in favor of a sinker, Loaisiga has averaged a blazing 98.1 mph on that sinker, also employing a changeup to help keep lefties off balance. It seems the current expectation is for Loaisiga to open the season on the injured list, but it may not be a particularly lengthy stay, based on the current trajectory of his rehab.

Of course, the headline-grabbing news of the week in the Bronx — beyond finalizing their eight-year deal with Fried and introducing him at a press conference today — was the Yankees’ completion of a trade to bring Bellinger to the Bronx. Rumors of talks between the Yankees and Cubs were plentiful, particularly once Soto signed with the Mets. The two teams finally lined up on a deal yesterday afternoon.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted not long after the trade that the Yankees had informed Bellinger he’ll be utilized in center field. General manager Brian Cashman pushed back on that today following the Fried presser (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that there’s no firm decision on Bellinger’s defensive home. He could play any of center field, left field or first base for the Yankees next season, and that decision will be contingent on what the Yankees are able to accomplish throughout the remainder of the offseason. FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar adds that manager Aaron Boone spoke to Bellinger last night, and Bellinger informed his new skipper he’s open to playing wherever needed.

That flexibility, plus the flexibility provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s ability to play multiple spots, leaves Cashman a vast array of possibilities for the remainder of the offseason. The Yankees are reportedly intrigued by several free agent first basemen but could look to the outfield market and also have other areas of depth from which they could trade. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com suggests that catcher Jose Trevino, for instance, could find himself on the trade block in the weeks ahead.

There’s been some speculation that the Yankees could deal from their catching depth this winter, and they’ve already moved one of the five catchers they had on their 40-man roster, sending Carlos Narvaez to the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher and some international bonus pool space. With Austin Wells emerging as the starter behind the plate and backstops J.C. Escarra and Jesus Rodriguez joining Trevino on the 40-man roster, there’s still a good bit of depth. (That doesn’t even include catcher/first baseman Ben Rice, or catching prospect Rafael Flores, who’s not on the 40-man but just had a big season in Double-A.)

To be clear, there’s no indication that Trevino is expressly being shopped. But catching depth is always at a premium around the league, and this offseason’s market is particularly thin. The Yankees are a surefire luxury payor, and while Trevino’s projected $3.4MM salary (again, via Swartz) isn’t excessive, moving him could cut the Yankees’ spending by around $7MM after accounting for the CBT.

The 32-year-old Trevino hit just .215/.288/.354 in 234 plate appearances last year but graded out as a plus-plus defender. The 2022 Platinum Glove winner is a free agent after the season, and with a wealth of young catching options in Wells, Escarra, Rodriguez and Flores, it’d be understandable if the Yanks leveraged that depth by moving Trevino for some bullpen help or depth in another area of need.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Cubs acquiring Kyle Tucker from the Astros for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith (1:45)
• The Yankees acquiring Devin Williams from the Brewers for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin (17:20)
• The Athletics acquiring Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez from the Rays for Joe Boyle a draft pick and two prospects (27:55)
• The Orioles signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year deal (36:00)
• The hot pitching market could push pitchers onto the trade market, including Luis Castillo of the Mariners, Dylan Cease of the Padres and Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins (40:25)

Check out our past episodes!

• Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
• Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here
• Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

On the one hand, it’s entirely unsurprising that a team seeking a leverage arm would throw its hat into the ring with regard to Williams. On the other, it’s at least tangentially notable, given the number of similarly priced late-inning arms on the market. If the Snakes were trying to engage the Brewers on Williams, it stands to reason that Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, Rays closer Pete Fairbanks and perhaps Houston’s Ryan Pressly are all of varying levels of interest. (At $14MM, Pressly costs significantly more than the other listed options, it should be noted.)

The bullpen market, unlike in many recent offseasons, has been slow to develop this winter. That could be in part due to the presence of names like Williams, Helsley, Fairbanks and Pressly (among others) all potentially being available. To this point, the only signings of note have been Aroldis Chapman (one year, $10.75MM to the Red Sox), Blake Treinen (two years, $22MM back to the Dodgers), Yimi Garcia (two years, $15MM back to the Blue Jays) and Jordan Romano (one year, $8.5MM to the Phillies). None of the market’s top relievers have come off the board, save for righty Clay Holmes, who signed a three-year deal to convert to a starting role with the Mets.

After last week’s Winter Meetings drew to a close, D-backs general manager Mike Hazen told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that both free agent and trade scenarios are still in play. Arizona did not complete any deals at last week’s event, but Hazen expressed confidence that the groundwork for future transactions was laid.

“There’s free-agent situations and trade situations that are both out there for all the areas that we’re looking at,” said Hazen, who is also looking for help at first base. “Trying to find what combinations go together in different ways is part of what we’re discussing right now.”

The top names still on the free agent market include Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez. All figure to command multi-year deals, with Scott in particular standing a chance at landing four years. That type of contract length could be an issue for the D-backs. Under Hazen, they’ve never signed a free agent reliever for more than two years and never gone higher than a $7MM annual value (as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). The market has plenty of intriguing one-year options as well, though any of David Robertson, Kirby Yates or Kenley Jansen would require pushing well past that $7MM highwater mark.

Both Williams and Cortes are entering their final seasons of club control, and both were projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in 2025. Milwaukee will still come out ahead a couple million dollars, which is of some moderate note, as the Brewers are working on an extremely tight budget this winter. Durbin, meanwhile, is a second baseman with experience at the hot corner. He was added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline and is likely to slot in at second or third base in 2025, with one of Brice Turang or Joey Ortiz moving to shortstop in place of Willy Adames, who signed with the Giants as a free agent.

Williams, 30, is one of the game’s elite relievers. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year, he boasts a career 1.83 earned run average with 68 saves, 60 holds, a 39.4% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in his big league career. Command has been an issue at times (11.8% walk rate), but Williams’ utterly devastating changeup — nicknamed the “Airbender” — is one of the most dominant pitches in the entire sport. He’s finished off 2299 big league plate appearances with that pitch, during which opponents have posted a comically feeble .139/.223/.200. The pitch boasts a preposterous 23% swinging-strike rate.

Among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since 2019, Emmanuel Clase (1.67) is the only pitcher with a better ERA than Williams’ 1.83 mark. No other pitcher is within even 40 points. (Jacob deGrom is next, at 2.24.) In that same time, only Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz have posted higher strikeout rates than Williams’ 39.4%. Only Gerrit Cole has a higher mark in terms of win probability added. Hader is second in WPA among relievers, but his 12.46 mark isn’t close to Williams’ 14.24. Sports Info Solutions credits Williams’ changeup as far and away the most valuable pitch of its type in the majors.

Dominant as Williams has been, he’ll come to the Yankees with some recent injury concerns. A stress fracture in his lower back caused the right-hander to miss the first four months of the 2024 season. Williams wasn’t activated for his 2024 debut until July 28. Once healthy, he generally looked like his dominant self, rattling off 21 2/3 innings with a microscopic 1.25 ERA, a massive 43.2% strikeout rate and an unsightly 12.5% walk rate (that was largely mitigated by his near-unparalleled ability to rack up strikeouts). Of course, the lasting memory for many fans will unfortunately be the backbreaking three-run homer that Williams surrendered to Pete Alonso in Milwaukee’s NLDS loss to the Mets.

Similarly, one of Cortes’ final moments as a Yankee is one he’d like to forget. The left-hander served up a walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of the World Series — the first of four Gibson-esque home runs the hobbled L.A. first baseman swatted en route to World Series MVP honors. As with Williams, there are some notable 2024 health concerns; Cortes gutted his way through a late-season flexor strain to return to the Yankees in the postseason. Cortes was also limited to 12 starts in 2023, thanks to a strain in his rotator cuff. Clearly, both clubs are satisfied with the medical reports on the veterans they’re acquiring.

Cortes, who just turned 30, has been a rock-solid mid-rotation arm when healthy in recent seasons. Dating back to his 2021 breakout with the Yankees, he’s pitched 489 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. The ERA is skewed by the 4.97 mark he logged in ’23 when dealing with that shoulder strain, but Cortes has been quite effective in three of the past four seasons.

In 2024, Cortes pitched a career-high 174 1/3 innings while sitting a career-best 92.1 mph with his four-seamer. The lefty fanned 22.8% of his opponents and notched a career-best 5.5% walk rate. If he can deliver anything close to that, the Brewers will surely be thrilled. Adding to the rotation was a significant need for the Brewers this offseason, but they’ve been operating with minimal resources as they try to find creative ways to do so.

Cortes will give Milwaukee an experienced arm to slot in behind Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff (returning from 2023 shoulder surgery), Aaron Civale and diamond-in-the-rough Tobias Myers. The Brewers also have lefties Aaron Ashby and DL Hall as rotation candidates, plus young righties Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick on the 40-man roster but likely ticketed for Triple-A.

With a full, healthy season, there’s a chance Cortes is a more valuable pitcher on the whole than Williams. He’s been worth about 10 wins above replacement over the past four seasons, per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs (even when accounting for his poor showing in an injury-marred 2023 season). For the Yankees, however, he was no more than sixth or seventh on the depth chart — not with Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman all on the roster.

For the Yankees, the deal is about not only beefing up their bullpen during the regular season but more specifically about bolstering their postseason roster, where Williams would be a focal piece and Cortes would be relegated to a lower-leverage relief role. In that sense, there are some parallels with the 2022 Jordan Montgomery/Harrison Bader swap: ship out a starter who’s not in the playoff rotation in exchange for someone who’ll have greater impact on postseason results. In the end, the trade involves both teams dealing from areas of strength.

The Milwaukee bullpen, after all, was one of the best in baseball last season — even in a year where Williams missed two-thirds of the year. The Brewers’ collective 3.11 bullpen ERA ranked second in the sport, and they were top-10 in terms of FIP (3.78, seventh), walk rate (8.3%, ninth) and K-BB% (15.5, tenth). With Williams out of the picture, they’ll likely look to Trevor Megill (2.72 ERA, 27.3 K%), Joel Payamps (3.05 ERA, 25.1 K%) and Bryan Hudson (1.73 ERA, 26.8 K%) for late-inning work. The previously mentioned Ashby (1.37 ERA, 36.8 K%, 19 1/3 innings) and Hall (3.00 ERA, 26.5 K%, 12 innings) also looked impressive when working as relievers.

The other major piece of the puzzle for the Brewers, of course, is the 24-year-old Durbin. Milwaukee lost Adames to free agency this offseason and has been in search of infield help but with scant money to spend. Durbin could slot in at second or third base, with one of Ortiz or Turang sliding over to shortstop. He could also simply give the Brewers a versatile utility option with intriguing contact skills and speed.

Durbin, who came to the Yankees from the Braves in exchange for Lucas Luetge, spent the bulk of the 2024 season in Triple-A Scranton Wilkes/Barre. He missed more than two months after being hit by a pitch on the wrist in May, but when he was healthy he was quite impressive. An infielder from the Altuve mold, Durbin is listed at just 5’6″ but nevertheless hit .287/.396/.471 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers and 31 stolen bases in 82 Triple-A games (375 plate appearances). He walked more than he struck out, drawing a free pass in 12.5% of his plate appearances versus a 9.9% strikeout rate.

With Durbin having missed a notable chunk of the season, the Yankees sent him to the Arizona Fall League to pick up some extra reps. He thrived there, hitting .312/.427/.548 with another five home runs and an AFL-record 29 stolen bases in 24 games (117 plate appearances). As he did in Triple-A, Durbin recorded more walks (17) than strikeouts (six).

Durbin has yet to take a single big league plate appearance, but the success he’s had in Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League — coupled with the Brewers’ needs in the infield — give him a legitimate chance to break camp with the club. He might need to earn his way into a starting gig this spring, and his ultimate role will depend on any subsequent moves the Brewers make, but he’s very clearly an option to help the club in 2025. As it stands, he’s controllable through at least the 2030 season.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Yankees and Brewers were finalizing a Williams trade. Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the deal was in place. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Cortes was in the deal. Durbin’s inclusion was first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reported that there was cash in the deal, and Nightengale chimed in with the exact amount.

4:51PM: The ever-aggressive Dodgers are looking for high-leverage relief help, and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Devin Williams and Tanner Scott are two of the names under consideration as L.A. weighs options in both free agency and the trade market.

Williams is eligible for free agency next winter, and there has been speculation that Milwaukee will once again look to move a notable player in advance of a trip to the open market so that the Brewers can recoup more than just draft compensation.  The closer is projected for a $7.7MM arbitration salary, as Williams’ numbers last season were limited by a stress reaction in his back that kept him off the mound until late July.

Despite the long layoff, Williams still looked like himself upon his return, posting a 1.25 ERA in 21 2/3 innings while racking up 14 saves.  It is possible rival teams could still point to the back injury as a reason to limit their offers for Williams, not to mention the fact that even an elite reliever has somewhat limited trade value with just one year of remaining control.

This all being said, Williams has such an outstanding track record that the Brewers will likely be able to hold firm on a high asking price.  Williams has excelled in both a set-up and closing role basically since he debuted in the majors in 2019, with a 1.83 ERA and a preposterous 39.4% strikeout rate over his 235 2/3 career innings.  His 11.8% career walk rate is on the high side and memories of his blown save in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series will linger for a long time in Milwaukee, but overall, Williams is the type of pitcher any team would want at the back of their bullpen.

Los Angeles has plenty of young talent to offer Milwaukee in a potential trade, and some of the Dodgers’ MLB-ready young pitching could be of particular interest.  Dealing away some of this depth might be preferable since the Dodgers have already dipped into the free agent market for Blake Snell, Michael Conforto, and Blake Treinen this offseason….or L.A. could make another splash by inking Scott to a long-term contract.

MLBTR ranked Scott as the best reliever in this year’s free agent class, and 14th overall on our list of the top 50 free agents.  This designation came with a prediction of a four-year, $56MM contract, and such a deal is certainly feasible for a Dodgers team that clearly isn’t shy about spending.  As Ardaya notes, L.A. was one of the many teams interested in Scott prior to the trade deadline, before the Marlins sent him to another NL West contender in the Padres.

Scott has always had plenty of strikeout power, but things didn’t fully click for him until the 2023 season.  Over the last two years, Scott has a 2.04 ERA, 31.3% strikeout rate, and 10% walk rate in 150 innings with Miami and San Diego, with just six home runs allowed and a 50.4% grounder rate.  Like Williams, control is a bit of an issue for Scott, yet the premium stuff is clearly there.

In October, Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters that he had to be “open-minded” about potentially trading Williams. He made similar comments in November, saying, “Certainly we have to be open to those types of things, but I think he makes our team better” (per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). Those words suggest Arnold isn’t actively shopping his closer, but his reluctance to shut down the idea speaks volumes. After all, Milwaukee has earned a reputation for trading star pitchers at least one year before they reach free agency. Back when Arnold worked under former president of baseball operations David Stearns, they dealt Josh Hader to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline. More recently, Arnold oversaw the swap that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Thanks to an excellent pitching development pipeline, the team has managed to stay competitive despite these trades. Thus, it would hardly be surprising if Williams is wearing a different uniform come Opening Day 2025.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked the Top 35 Trade Candidates of the offseason, he put Williams at no. 4, behind only White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, and Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. The fact that Williams ranked behind Helseley was partially because the latter seemed more likely to be dealt. However, recent reports suggest the Cardinals are unlikely to trade Helsley this winter after all. That should only invigorate the market for a pitcher like Williams. If Helsley is staying put, Williams is undeniably the top reliever on the trade market. 

What’s more, former Yankees closer Clay Holmes is off the free agent market after signing with the Mets to become a starting pitcher. Holmes was MLBTR’s third-highest-ranked free agent reliever this offseason. Meanwhile, MLBTR’s second-highest-ranked free agent reliever, Jeff Hoffman, has also drawn interest as a potential starter. In other words, the market for top-end, right-handed relievers is already starting to thin out.

Thus, if the Brewers trade Williams, they should be able to land a strong return commensurate with his value. At the same time, he won’t bring back quite as much young talent as Burnes (a former Cy Young winner) or Hader (who had an extra half-season of team control), so just about every interested party should have the necessary trade chips to make a compelling offer. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a return for Williams would “ideally” include a young starter, though if the Brewers are really keeping an open mind, they might be open to various return packages.

Let’s take a closer look at which teams could trade for Williams this winter:

Clear Fits

Blue Jays: From 2021-23, the Blue Jays had one of the better closers in baseball: homegrown Canadian righty Jordan Romano. However, things quickly tumbled downhill for Romano in 2024, and the rest of Toronto’s relief corps followed suit. No AL bullpen had a worse ERA, a higher home run rate, or a lower strikeout rate. The Jays are thought to be interested in re-signing Romano, but that shouldn’t preclude them from looking for a more reliable closer. Indeed, they were reportedly considering signing Holmes (as a reliever) before he ultimately landed with the Mets. Adding Williams would go a long way to help revamp one of the worst bullpens in the league.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have a strong group of arms at the back end of their bullpen, but none with significant closing experience. Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and Ryan Thompson are all coming off strong seasons. Still, GM Mike Hazen said earlier this offseason that he’d prefer to have another back-end arm to help them out, suggesting his team was at its best when capital-C closer Paul Sewald was the ninth inning guy. Hazen could be dealing with some financial constraints this winter as he tries to replace Sewald, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and more without significantly increasing payroll. So, adding Williams, whose projected $7.7MM salary is well below open market value, could be a particularly appealing move.

Phillies: The Phillies bullpen lost two high-leverage right-handers to free agency this offseason: Hoffman and Carlos Estévez. POBO Dave Dombrowski has made it clear he’s looking to add at least one righty arm to the back end of the bullpen to replace the talent he lost. That could mean bringing back Hoffman (the Phillies have reportedly shown interest in such a reunion) or targeting another free agent like Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, or Blake Treinen. After all, this team has largely preferred to flex its financial muscle rather than part with prospects to acquire star talent. However, Dombrowski has repeatedly suggested he will look to get more creative this winter. Could the Phillies and Brewers line up on a swap involving Williams and fellow trade candidate Alec Bohm?

Rangers: The Rangers arm barn is in a rough spot right now. After finishing among the AL’s bottom five bullpens in most statistical categories in 2024, Texas lost Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña to free agency. POBO Chris Young should have some money to spend this winter, but as he aims to drop beneath the luxury tax threshold, he won’t be able to throw out numerous big-money contracts as he’s done in the past. That could make an arbitration-eligible arm like Williams quite appealing. 

Royals: Lucas Erceg stepped up for the Royals after the trade deadline, putting up a 2.88 ERA over 25 innings and blossoming into the closer his new team desperately needed. Yet, Erceg’s success doesn’t mean the Royals can’t look for an upgrade at the back of the bullpen. As dominant as he looked down the stretch in 2024, he’s hardly the most experienced or reliable arm. He’ll enter his age-30 season with just 116 2/3 MLB innings under his belt and a career 4.01 ERA and 3.52 SIERA. As the Royals look to compete for the AL Central title in 2025, a bona fide closer like Williams would make for a terrific addition to the squad.

Tigers: The Tigers have a few options to close in 2025, most notably Tyler Holton, who has quietly been one of the best relievers in the game over the past two seasons. Still, no one has a lock on the closer role in Detroit, and the right-handed Williams would make an excellent complement to the southpaw Holton. Now that the Tigers are officially contenders, a proven closer like Williams is the kind of luxury they can afford as they strive to go on a deeper postseason run in 2025.

Yankees: Luke Weaver certainly earned the right to slot into the closer role for the Yankees at the end of the 2024 season and into the playoffs. At the same time, he doesn’t have a ton of late-inning relief experience, and New York might prefer to use him in a variable, multi-inning role. The Yankees made a huge splash on the trade market when they acquired Juan Soto last offseason, and they could do so again by scooping up Williams. After losing in the World Series, the Bronx Bombers are surely going to be hungry for talent — especially if they can’t re-sign Soto.

More Potential Fits

Dodgers: These days, it seems like you just can’t rule the Dodgers out on anyone. Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech both have what it takes to close for the reigning World Series champions, but neither is without his question marks. Phillips missed the World Series with a shoulder injury, while Kopech’s success in L.A. came in a pretty small sample size. With so few holes to fill on their roster, could the Dodgers look to add a superstar closer to make their super team even more super?

Giants: Following his breakout performance in 2024, Ryan Walker has the inside track on the Giants’ closer job in 2025. That said, he’s hardly a lock for the gig. New POBO Buster Posey is looking to build a legitimate postseason contender this offseason, and a closer like Williams would give the Giants more security at the end of ballgames.

Padres: After trading for Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at last summer’s trade deadline, the Padres stuck with Robert Suarez in the closer role. That’s a pretty clear indication of how much this team values Suarez, who pitched to a 2.77 ERA and 3.53 SIERA while recording 36 saves in 42 chances in 2024. That makes a trade for Williams, who would almost surely usurp Suarez as the closer, seem unlikely. Then again, Padres POBO A. J. Preller loves to pull off blockbuster swaps, and he’ll be looking for some way to replace Scott’s excellent production out of the bullpen. 

Division Rivals

The Cubs, Pirates, and Reds could all use a reliable closer. Porter Hodge was terrific for Chicago in his rookie season, but a team with legitimate postseason aspirations needs a more proven arm to anchor the bullpen. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (Alexis Díaz) and Pittsburgh (David Bednar) both have more experienced closers, but neither pitcher had a strong 2024 campaign. There is no doubt that Williams would make all three of these teams significantly more competitive in 2025.

However, it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Brewers sending Williams to a division rival. After all, it’s not as if they’d be trading him as part of a rebuilding effort. The Brewers are the reigning NL Central champions, and they’re looking to retain that crown in 2025. That will be hard enough with Williams pitching anywhere else, let alone for one of their closest competitors.

Longer Shots

Williams is such a special talent that there aren’t many teams one can completely rule out of the trade sweepstakes. The Red Sox are likely out of the running after signing Aroldis Chapman, especially since they also have Liam Hendriks at the back of their bullpen. Similarly, the Orioles (Félix Bautista), Mets (Edwin Díaz), Astros (Hader), Braves (Raisel Iglesias), and Mariners (Andrés Muñoz) already have excellent pitchers entrenched in the closer role. Still, it’s not as if any of these contenders wouldn’t be able to make room for Williams. Figuring out how to split time between two star closers is the kind of problem any manager would love to have, and adding Williams would immediately turn any of these bullpens into one of the best in the league. 

The move hardly comes as a surprise given that the Brewers figure to save around $2.5MM by declining Williams’s option. The 30-year-old may have been able to put together a season where he played well enough to justify picking up that option had he been healthy, but multiple stress fractures in his back left Williams unable to pitch until late July this year. Once he was on the mound again, Williams was nothing short of his dominant self with a sensational 1.25 ERA and a 2.06 FIP in his 22 appearances during the regular season this year. In his limited playing time this season, Williams posted his typical elevated walk rate of 12.5% but made up for it as per usual with an otherworldly strikeout rate as he punched out a whopping 43.2% of opponents this year.

Eye-popping as those numbers may seem, they generally are not a product of sample size. Williams has been among the very best relievers in the sport ever since he broke out during the shortened 2020 season to earn the NL Rookie of the Year award, a top-7 finish in NL Cy Young award voting, and even down-ballot MVP consideration.

Since that incredible rookie year, Williams has pitched to a 1.70 ERA that’s 248% better than league average by ERA+ in 222 innings of work. That’s the second best ERA in baseball among qualified relievers over the past five years, second only to Emmanuel Clase. Meanwhile, Williams’s 2.24 FIP ranks third behind only Edwin Diaz and Matt Brash, and his 40.8% strikeout rate is second only to Diaz.

As one of the very best relievers in baseball over the past half decade, Williams has been vital to Milwaukee’s success in recent years, particularly following the departure of Josh Hader at the 2022 trade deadline. While that could make Williams difficult for the club to replace in 2025 and beyond, the Brewers managed to remain successful in 2024 even after dealing Corbin Burnes to the Orioles last winter. Given that the first half of 2024 showed the Brewers were more than capable of getting by without Williams thanks to excellent performances from Trevor Megill, Bryan Hudson, Jared Koenig, and Joel Payamps in the bullpen, it would hardly be a surprise if Williams found himself dealt at some point this winter. MLBTR ranked Williams #4 on our recent list of the Top 35 offseason trade candidates, and even club GM Matt Arnold acknowledged last month that the Brewers will need to remain “open-minded” about the possibility of shipping Williams elsewhere this winter.

Of course, that doesn’t mean a trade is guaranteed. Even as the Brewers parted ways with Burnes, they decided to retain shortstop Willy Adames for his final season of team control. Adames figures to reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere this winter, but his resurgent 4.8-fWAR campaign proved crucial to the club’s offense throughout the year as the Brewers claimed their second consecutive NL Central title. If offers for Williams aren’t sufficiently enticing or the club decides Williams is too important to the club’s hopes of winning in 2025 to part ways with, it’s certainly possible he remains with the club for his final trip through arbitration before free agency.

Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.

Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.

Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.

The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.

Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.

Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.

Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.

Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.

The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.

A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.

The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.

Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.

Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.

Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.

Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.

An MRI during Spring Training revealed that Williams had two stress fractures in his back, and after a long period of recovery, he is set to return to a big league mound.  Williams has logged four minor league rehab outings this month, tossing four scoreless innings during these last tune-ups.  Despite his long layoff, this was apparently all the rehab work Williams and the Brewers felt was necessary, and he figures to see some action in today’s game with the Marlins.

With the trade deadline on Tuesday, Williams’ return counts as an unofficial sort of midseason acquisition for the first-place Brewers.  Even without their All-Star closer available, Milwaukee’s relief corps has still been one of the more effective units in the game, ranking third in bullpen ERA heading into Sunday’s action.  Trevor Megill has posted a 2.41 ERA and 20 saves in Williams’ absence, but he’ll now drop back into a setup role as Williams returns to ninth-inning work.

Bryan Hudson has also been a key piece of the Brewers’ pen, but since he was just sidelined due to an oblique injury, Williams should be a more than suitable replacement.  The Crew also acquired righty Nick Mears from the Rockies in a trade yesterday, further bolstering the relief corps for the stretch drive and (the Brewers hope) into October.

Williams made his MLB debut in 2019, delivering a 3.95 ERA over his first 13 2/3 innings of big league ball.  After that respectable start to his career, the right-hander has been nothing short of tremendous, posting a sterling 1.75 ERA and a stunning 40.5% strikeout rate over 200 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  An 11.7% career walk rate and a lack of premium velocity are issues, but Williams has otherwise been one of the game’s best at inducing soft contact and missing bats.  Initially acting as the Brewers’ setup man behind Josh Hader, Williams has seamlessly transitioned into the closer’s job after Hader was dealt at the 2022 trade deadline.

The Brewers acquired Junk from the Angels as part of the Hunter Renfroe trade in November 2022, and the righty has a 5.87 ERA over 15 1/3 innings and seven overall appearances in a Milwaukee uniform.  He spent almost all of the 2023 season in the minors and has been shuttled back and forth between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville this year.

Working mostly as a starter during his pro career, Junk was deployed primarily as a multi-inning reliever this season.  Though Junk has only a 6.75 ERA in his eight innings of MLB work in 2024, his 2.55 ERA across 35 1/3 innings in Nashville indicates that he may have unlocked something with this semi-permanent move to the bullpen.  This could make him a candidate to be claimed away by a team in need of bullpen innings, but if Junk does clear waivers, he doesn’t have the ability to reject an outright assignment.  It also stands to reason that the Brewers could try and work out a trade involving Junk prior to the July 30 deadline.

It’s the second straight year where Mitchell has been prevented from getting into regular action. He debuted late in 2022 and hit .311/.373/.459 in his first 28 major league games, setting himself up for a prominent role on the 2023 club. But he suffered a left shoulder subluxation in April last year and required surgery, ultimately only playing in 19 games during that campaign.

Mitchell has provided above-average outfield defense and has stolen nine bases in ten tries while hitting .278/.343/.452 in his limited action. That has come with a concerning 38.3% strikeout rate that he and the Brewers would surely love to drop, which likely makes it even more frustrating that he keeps missing out on key development time.

So far this year, the Brewers have been using a regular outfield rotation of Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick. During the spring, the club was experimenting with the idea of moving Frelick to the infield but Mitchell’s injury allowed him to go back to his regular outfield job.

Arnold also relayed that reliever Devin Williams is looking at a return around the All-Star break. That roughly aligns with the three-month estimate given when it was reported in March that the closer had been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Taylor Clarke, meanwhile, is looking at a late May return from the meniscus surgery he underwent on his right knee a few weeks ago.

Today, Arnold provided an unfortunate update about prospect Brock Wilken, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Wilken was playing for Double-A Biloxi last night when he was hit in the face by a pitch, suffering multiple fractures but no concussion. Once the swelling subsides, Wilken will likely undergo surgery.

Wilken, who turns 22 in June, was the club’s first-round pick last year. Selected 18th overall, the Brewers sent the third baseman through the Complex League, High-A and Double-A last year after drafting him. Baseball America ranked him as the club’s #10 prospect coming into this year while FanGraphs had him at #5.

This news is obviously a bit scary but Arnold says the long-term prognosis is good. Given his potential importance to the club’s future, the Brewers will likely be cautious in getting Wilken back onto the field.

Herget, 33, has logged big league time in each of the past two seasons, spending the 2022 campaign in the Rays organization and the 2023 season with the Reds. He’s posted a 5.74 ERA in 31 1/3 MLB frames, with a 12.6% strikeout rate that’s only a bit more than half the league average but an outstanding 4.4% walk rate. Herget delivered pedestrian numbers in 47 1/3 Triple-A innings with the Reds’ top affiliate last season but was excellent in Triple-A with the 2022 Rays when he racked up 97 1/3 frames with a 2.95 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and pristine 3.9% walk rate.

Though Herget doesn’t throw hard (92.6 mph average fastball) or miss many bats, his command is sharp. He’s only walked 6% of the hitters he’s faced in pro ball, including just 6.3% in parts of seven Triple-A seasons. He’s walked only one of his 17 opponents (5.8%) in 4 1/3 shutout innings to start the Triple-A season with the Brewers’ affiliate in Nashville. Herget also has a pair of minor league options remaining, so if the Brewers decide this will be a short stint in the big league bullpen, he can be sent back to Nashville without first needing to clear waivers.

Optioning Ashby is the latest discouraging development in what’s been a frustrating couple of years for the former top prospect. The now-25-year-old lefty debuted late in the 2021 season and impressed down the stretch, fanning nearly 30% of his opponents in 31 2/3 innings. Ashby split the 2022 season between the Brewers’ rotation and bullpen, pitching quite well through the season’s first few months — so much so that Milwaukee signed him to a five-year, $20.5MM contract extension.

That hasn’t gone nearly as well as hoped. Ashby posted a decent 4.23 ERA with a 4.31 FIP and much more promising 3.44 SIERA in his final 38 1/3 innings that season. He fanned 26.1% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9.1% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 57.4% rate in ’22 following the extension.

Shoulder troubles popped up in 2023, however, eventually requiring arthroscopic surgery. Ashby wound up pitching just seven innings all season — all of which came in the minors. He returned this season but was rocked for 11 runs (nine earned) on 14 hits and five walks with seven punchouts in just 8 1/3 spring innings. His regular season began with a the left-hander yielding eight runs (four earned) on six hits and a pair of walks in 3 2/3 innings. Ashby averaged 96.5 mph on his sinker in 2021 and 95.8 mph in 2022; he’s sitting at just 93.8 mph to begin the current season.

The Brewers are surely still hopeful that Ashby can rebound to an extent. Whether he factors into the rotation or eventually settles in as a bullpen piece, the former fourth-round pick has shown clear ability to miss bats and generate grounders at a premium level. Command has long been an issue, and Ashby probably won’t ever excel in that regard, but he could still play a prominent role on the team if he can get back to the 27.1% strikeout rate, 12.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.1% opponents’ chase rate he displayed in 2021-22.

Under the terms of that previously mentioned contract extension, Ashby is being paid $1.25MM in 2024. He’s owed salaries of $3.25MM, $5.5MM and $7.5MM from 2025-27, and Milwaukee has club options on what would’ve been his first two free agent seasons: $9MM in 2028 (with a $1MM buyout) and $13MM in 2029.

It’s a massive hit to the Milwaukee bullpen two weeks before Opening Day. Williams made two appearances this spring before pausing his work as he battled back soreness. He visited a spine specialist this afternoon. That examination revealed the fractures. Fortunately, Passan indicates that Williams is expected to make a full recovery.

That the injury shouldn’t affect Williams throughout his career is a positive, but there’s no question it’s a significant loss for the first half of the upcoming season. The two-time All-Star is among the best relievers in baseball. He has turned in a sub-2.00 ERA in consecutive years, including a sparkling 1.53 mark over 58 2/3 frames last season. Williams shut down 36 games in 40 attempts in his first full campaign as a closer. He rode his patented wiffle ball changeup, the so-called Airbender, to a massive 37.7% strikeout percentage. Williams was named the National League’s Reliever of the Year for the second time in his career.

As is the case with virtually every Milwaukee player approaching free agency, Williams found himself in trade rumors during the offseason. That speculation returned after they dealt Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, but Milwaukee didn’t find a deal to their liking. They elected to keep him at the back of the bullpen instead. Williams should eventually return to the ninth inning, but he’ll now begin the season on the 60-day injured list and will be out of action at least into the middle of June.

It’s unclear if Milwaukee skipper Pat Murphy will go with a committee approach to the ninth inning or pick a defined closer while Williams is on the shelf. If they go the latter route, any of Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe or Trevor Megill could be candidates. Payamps was somewhat quietly one of the more productive relievers in the NL last season. The secondary piece acquired in the William Contreras/Sean Murphy three-team trade, Payamps turned in a 2.55 ERA with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers across 70 1/3 innings.

Uribe has more traditional closing stuff. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averaged a blistering 99.4 MPH on his sinker as a rookie. Uribe turned in a 1.76 ERA behind a 53% grounder percentage and a 30.7% strikeout rate over his first 30 2/3 MLB innings. It’s eye-popping stuff, but his command could keep him out of the ninth inning. Uribe walked more than 15% of opponents last season.

Megill, acquired in a minor trade with the Twins last April, struck out nearly 36% of batters faced as a Brewer. He worked to a 3.31 ERA through 32 2/3 frames. Megill averaged 99.1 MPH on his heater, which he paired with a wipeout curveball in the mid-80s. Having that trio of power arms means Murphy should still have a good relief group with which to work, yet there’s no one who can be expected to replicate the production that Williams posts on an annual basis.

Milwaukee controls Williams via arbitration through the 2025 season. He’s making $7MM this season. Milwaukee has a $10MM option for next year but could retain him in arbitration even if they opt for a $250K buyout instead of the option value. If Williams progresses as expected, he should be back on the mound before the deadline. There’s a chance he’d be a midseason trade candidate if the Brewers unexpectedly fall out of contention in the NL Central, but the offers they receive could be complicated by other teams’ trepidation about the injury.

Williams, 29, has established himself among the game’s most elite closers in recent years. Though the right-hander made his debut late in the 2019 season, he retained rookie eligibility into the 2020 season, which saw him dominant to an superlative 0.33 ERA with a 0.86 FIP in 27 innings of work, a strong enough performance to earn him the NL Rookie of the Year award during the shortened season. Since then, he’s settled in as one of the most reliably dominant relief arms in the game, having compiled a microscopic 1.75 ERA and 2.26 FIP in 200 1/3 innings over the past four years while striking out a whopping 40.5% of batters faced.

He enjoyed a characteristically excellent season in 2023, posting a 1.53 ERA in 61 appearances while collecting a career-best 36 saves and striking out opponents at a 37.7% clip. That dominance led to some trade speculation this winter as the club parted ways with both manager Craig Counsell and ace right-hander Corbin Burnes, though no deal ever came together regarding Williams and it’s unclear if the Brewers even shopped their relief ace. The right-hander remains under team control in Milwaukee through the end of the 2025 season, so it’s possible the club could look to part ways with Williams at some point in the future, but for the time being the right-hander appears poised to return to his role as Brewers closer come Opening Day if he’s healthy enough to take the field.

More from Brewers camp…

• Murphy also spoke to reporters, including Hogg, about the prospect of young outfielder Sal Frelick moving to the infield this season. The manager indicated that he feels that Frelick’s work at third base hasn’t been “emphasized” enough and that he could be “one of the best stories in baseball.” Frelick’s potential move to the infield had been reported last month, when The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal indicated that Frelick had begun work at both second and third base. Frelick has since appeared in five games at the hot corner this spring, the same number as he’s appeared in his native right field. Should Frelick’s experiment at third base carry into the regular season on even a part-time basis, it would go a long way to sorting out at-bats in the club’s crowded outfield mix, which includes the likes of Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer in addition to Frelick.
• Catcher Gary Sanchez has been slowed this spring by a right hand issue ever since signing with the Brewers on a big league deal last month, though as noted by MLB.com the 31-year-old backstop made it into game action ahead of schedule by appearing as the club’s DH in yesterday’s game. Sanchez was previously expected to start getting into game action on March 14, putting nearly a week ahead of schedule. That’s a good sign for Sanchez’s ability to get up to speed in time to avoid a stint on the injured list to open the season, though the club has Eric Haase also in camp and on the 40-man roster as a potential alternative backup to primary catcher William Contreras should Sanchez require more time to prepare for the coming campaign. Sanchez lingered on the free agent market through the early months of the 2023 campaign but performed well upon joining the Padres in late May, slashing .218/.292/.500 with 19 home runs in just 260 trips to the plate across his 72 games with the club.

That’s a far cry from a declaration that the Brewers are open for business, but both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com report that Williams, in particular, is also a possibility to move. Rosenthal writes that the Brewers have already “entertained” the possibility of moving the star righty.

Williams, 29, is among the game’s most dominant relievers. Over the past four seasons, he’s logged a 1.75 ERA while striking out a staggering 40.5% of his opponents. Williams’ 11.9% walk rate is well above the league average, but his prodigious strikeout ability, strong 49.5% ground-ball rate and knack for inducing weak contact (85.1 mph average exit velocity, 28.2% hard-hit rate) have all combined to help him mitigate that shaky command.

Excellent as he’s been, Williams isn’t the prototypical power-armed closer we see so often in today’s game. That’s not to suggest he’s a soft-tosser, but he doesn’t brandish the triple-digit heater that’s become increasingly common in modern baseball. Williams averaged 94.2 mph on his fastball in 2023 — an exact match with the league average for relievers — and sits at 94.8 mph dating back to 2020. However, Williams has one of the game’s best pitches, an 80-grade changeup nicknamed the “airbender.” Nearly a quarter of the changeups Williams has thrown in his career (23.1%) have generated a swinging strike. Opponents have batted just .137 and slugged only .199 against the pitch in his career.

Beyond his sheer dominance, Williams is eminently affordable. He agreed to a one-year, $7.25MM deal last month and tacked on a $10.5MM club option for the 2025 campaign, thus avoiding the need for an arbitration hearing this year or next. The value of that club option will likely increase based on some escalators that are baked into the contract. Pitching in 52 games would bump the option value by $200K, while reaching 57 and 62 appearances would add $250K each, plus another $300K for 66 games (which would establish a new career-high, topping 2022’s 65 games). Even if Williams unlocks that full $1MM worth of escalators, an $11.5MM option on a reliever of this caliber would still be a clear bargain.

It should be noted and emphasized that there’s no indication Milwaukee is aggressively shopping Williams or anyone else on the roster. This, however, is the manner in which the Brewers (and Arnold’s former organization, the Rays) have continually operated: maintain an openness on star players as their club control dwindles — particularly those who are likely beyond the organization’s comfort level in terms of asking price on an extension.

Flexibility when it comes to moving short-term players with one to two years of club control is a driving factor in how the Brewers have remained competitive regularly despite perennially ranking in the bottom half of the league in terms of payroll. The trade of Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline netted the Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser (one of their current top pitching prospects) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who was subsequently flipped for William Contreras, who won a Silver Slugger as Milwaukee’s starting catcher last season. Hader himself came to Milwaukee alongside Adrian Houser in a trade sending Carlos Gomez to Houston. Right-hander Freddy Peralta, now the Brewers’ top starter, was acquired as a 19-year-old in a trade sending first baseman Adam Lind to Seattle. The list goes on.

Any trade involving Williams will surely require a steep asking price — arguably a comparable or even greater return than Burnes commanded, given his extra year of club control and more affordable contract status. And Williams, like Burnes, figures to be a qualifying offer candidate once he’s able to reach free agency, meaning a new team would know that so long as he remains healthy, there’ll be some draft pick compensation to help recoup the value surrendered in order to acquire him in the first place.

It stands to reason that with Burnes out the door and at least a willingness to listen on Williams, the Brewers have similar thoughts on Adames. The 28-year-old broke out almost immediately after being traded from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee in 2021, when the Brewers sent righties Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen to the Rays in exchange for Adames and righty Trevor Richards.

In two and a half seasons as a Brewer, Adames has slashed .242/.319/.454 with 75 homers, 86 doubles and a pair of triples in 1668 plate appearances — all while playing strong defense at a premium position. He’s walked at a 10% clip against a 26% strikeout rate and established himself as a power threat who can hit anywhere in the order, evidenced by 2022’s 31-homer showing. Adames has turned in 17 Defensive Runs Saved and 26 Outs Above Average in the past two seasons alone. He’ll earn a reasonable $12.25MM in 2024 before becoming a free agent ahead of his age-29 season.

As with Burnes, Adames will be a slam-dunk qualifying offer candidate next season. He’s extremely likely to receive and reject a QO, and he’d surely sign a contract worth more than $50MM in total with his next team. That’d give Milwaukee a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of the 2025 draft. Any trade offers would need to eclipse that value — and likely by a strong margin.

That said, the acquisition of Joey Ortiz in the Burnes trade makes it easier for the Brewers to listen to offers. Ortiz himself is a shortstop — and an MLB-ready one at that. He struggled in a tiny sample during last year’s MLB debut (34 plate appearances, .212/.206/.242) but is an accomplished upper-minors hitter who’s considered a good defender at shortstop. The 25-year-old Ortiz spent the bulk of the 2023 season in Triple-A Norfolk, where he slashed .321/.378/.507. That marked his second stint in Norfolk, as he also finished out the 2022 season there and hit well in a sample of 115 plate appearances. Overall, in 504 trips to the plate at Triple-A, Ortiz is a .327/.383/.521 hitter with 13 homers, 37 doubles, six triples and 17 steals.

Of course, as a plus defender at shortstop, Ortiz is more than capable of breaking into the big leagues as an everyday second baseman or third baseman. He and Adames can absolutely coexist on Milwaukee’s roster, and Ortiz could easily slide over to shortstop in 2025 if the team hangs onto Adames for the upcoming season. The Brewers surely don’t feel they need to trade Adames, but as Arnold strongly implied, he also won’t be turning anyone away on principle, either.

That willingness to listen could set the stage for another splashy trade or even two between now and Opening Day, but this isn’t an A’s-esque situation where the Brewers will be selling everything that’s not nailed down. Burnes commanded a pair of immediate big leaguers who both have six years of club control remaining. Any trades of Williams, Adames and/or anyone else on the roster would presumably need to afford similar near-term help.

The Brewers’ recent signing of Hoskins and focus on MLB-ready talent even in trading away their ace highlights the fact that this isn’t a team punting on 2024. Rather, they’re trying to thread the needle of remaining competitive on an annual basis without needing to undergo the exact type of teardown that Burnes’ new team underwent for a half decade prior to emerging as a powerhouse in the AL East. Teams will undoubtedly check back in on Williams, Adames and others in the wake of the Burnes blockbuster, but further trades aren’t necessarily a given.

Around this time last offseason, Milwaukee was reportedly telling teams they weren’t interested in dealing Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames. It doesn’t seem they’re being quite so definitive this time around. At the same time, that doesn’t guarantee any of those players will be on the move.

Woodruff doesn’t hold much trade value at this point anyhow. The All-Star righty underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the bulk of next season. He’s on track to hit free agency after that year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $11.6MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract. There’s a chance Milwaukee cuts him loose for nothing before next Friday’s non-tender deadline.

Burnes would have immense trade appeal, while Adames would be a valuable asset in his own right. The former is one of the sport’s best pitchers and would likely be the best starter available if the Brewers seriously considered dealing him. The 2021 Cy Young winner worked to a 3.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings this year. He reached the 200 strikeout mark for a third straight season, fanning 25.5% of opponents. While a less impressive showing than Burnes’ three consecutive sub-3.00 ERA years between 2020-22, that’s still very strong production.

Swartz projects him for a salary just above $15MM in his final season of team control. The projected outlay on Adames checks in at $12.4MM. The 28-year-old shortstop is coming off a relative down season. He hit .217/.310/.411 across 638 trips to the plate. That’s well below the .256/.325/.483 line he’d posted between his acquisition from the Rays in May 2021 and the end of the ’22 season.

Despite the dip in offense, Adames would have strong trade appeal. He’s an excellent defender at the infield’s most demanding position. He still connected on 24 home runs and has topped 20 longballs in each of the last four full seasons. A dismal free agent shortstop class leaves other teams without many alternatives.

It is generally expected that Burnes and Adames will price themselves out of Milwaukee when they reach free agency. The Brewers could expect a stronger trade return this offseason than they would if they shopped either player at the deadline — an acquiring team would not only get a full year of their services, they’d be able to make them a qualifying offer next winter.

Moving either player would deal a notable blow to Milwaukee’s hopes of repeating as NL Central champions, though. Between Woodruff’s injury and Wade Miley hitting free agency, the Brew Crew are already thin on the rotation front. The aforementioned middle infield shortage would make it difficult to effectively replace Adames on a low-cost free agent pickup.

The Brewers have made one trade this offseason, sending Mark Canha to the Tigers in lieu of an $11.5MM club option. Moving either Burnes or Adames would be a much tougher decision. Milwaukee has around $36MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class is projected for nearly $65MM, although non-tenders of Woodruff and Rowdy Tellez would trim almost $18MM from that estimate. The Brewers opened the 2023 season with a player payroll in the $119MM range, so retaining Burnes and Adames should be financially viable.

Various others on the Milwaukee roster are sure to be the subject of interest from rival teams. Devin Williams would be one of the most in-demand relievers, while Adrian Houser could hold appeal to clubs looking for starting pitching. It’s hard to envision the Brewers orchestrating a full teardown — the organization has instead sought perpetual contention by moving select players as they get closer to free agency — but there are various options on the table for GM Matt Arnold over the coming months.