Philadelphia’s outstanding 47-22 record also provides a bit more breathing room, as the Phillies have the National League’s best record and look like a lock to return to the playoffs.  Dombrowski naturally expected his team to be good, but admitted that a .681 win percentage even exceeded his expectations, especially considering that the Phils have been without Trea Turner for the majority of the season.  Turner’s impending return is an upgrade on its own, and in terms of other possible trade deadline additions, Dombrowski said it’s “way, way, way, way, way too early” to start accessing how the market might take shape.  Dombrowski cited bullpen depth as one possible area to explore, and doesn’t seem to think the Phillies will pursue a “we’re going to trade three top prospects” type of blockbuster trade.  The PBO is also cognizant of how adding and subtracting from the roster might impact team chemistry, as obviously Dombrowski doesn’t want to disrupt what has been a winning formula for the Phillies to date.

More from around the NL East…

• The Nationals placed Joey Gallo on the 10-day IL earlier this week, and manager Davey Martinez provided reporters (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post) yesterday with some unfortunate context, as Gallo’s left hamstring strain is “significant.”  No more specifics were given about the severity of the strain or how long exactly the Nats expect Gallo to be sidelined, yet it would seem unlikely that he would be back in action before the All-Star break.  Gallo already missed three weeks earlier this season recovering from an AC joint sprain his left shoulder, and this latest injury compounds what has been a miserable 2024 campaign for the veteran.  After signing a one-year, $5MM free agent deal with Washington this past winter, Gallo has hit only .164/.285/.321 over 165 plate appearances, and striking out 71 times.
• A.J. Minter is likely to throw a bullpen session soon, Braves manager Brian Snitker told MLB.com and other media, as the left-hander continues to recover from inflammation in his left hip.  It would appear that Minter is just about on track with the one-month timeline initially projected for his recovery, as he has started throwing side sessions to warm up his arm.  A longtime staple of the Atlanta bullpen, Minter had a 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 innings this season before hitting the IL.

Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.

As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.

Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.

More from around the NL…

• While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
• Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.

Timing is everything in trade negotiations, and it seems as though the Marlins checked in on Escobar after the Mets reached their 12-year, $315M agreement with Carlos Correa.  Had the Correa deal been finalized fairly quickly, there would’ve been a greater chance of Escobar being moved, as the veteran infielder suddenly would’ve been out of a starting job in New York’s infield.  However, the Mets’ issues with Correa’s physical have led to stalled negotiations in finalizing or perhaps even reworking the deal, to the point that other teams have reportedly re-entered the picture.  As such, it isn’t surprising that the Mets have opted to hang onto Escobar, leaving the Marlins looking elsewhere for a more immediate lineup fix.

More from around the NL East…

• Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke with reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) about his club’s trade with the Tigers today.  Moving three players was “not easy for us,” Dombrowski said, but the Phillies were tempted by the chance to add a quality, controllable reliever like Gregory Soto.  The Phillies first talked Soto with the Tigers during the Winter Meetings, but negotiations seemed to cool until this past Thursday, when Dombrowski said that Detroit PBO Scott Harris called to revisit a Soto deal.  In regards to the other players involved, Kody Clemens figures to take over one of the bench spots left by Nick Maton or Matt Vierling, and Dombrowski said the other spot could be filled by a future smaller acquisition, or perhaps by a player already in Philadelphia’s system.
• Sean Murphy’s six-year, $73MM extension with the Braves made him the latest Atlanta player to sign a long-term deal within the last year, giving the Braves yet another key player locked up for the majority of the decade.  It is a strategy that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has pursued “for the parameters that we have, for the market we have, for what we have to work with,” and also because of the players’ own buy-in.  “These guys are choosing to stay here, and they don’t have to.  I think that’s important, and it’s a credit to Atlanta and the organization across the board,” Anthopoulos told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano and other reporters earlier this week.  “There’s risk to this, no doubt about it, when you lock yourself into this…But we do like the fact that guys can just worry about going out and playing.  They don’t have to worry about making a certain salary, getting certain statistics and so on, and they know they’re going to be here.”

Dombrowski was asked about the likelihood of the Phillies signing two players with qualifying offers attached (they’ve already added one in Turner) and had this to say: “Probably not very much. One seems like a lot already. I don’t think we’d have much of an appetite for that. Not saying we never do it, but I would say there’s not much of an appetite.” 

Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Carlos Rodon are the remaining starters on the market that have a qualifying offer attached, but there’s plenty of other options out there. Philadelphia could pursue a reunion with Noah Syndergaard, or go after Jameson Taillon, who they’ve already been linked to. Other options could include Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea.

Philadelphia did see Zach Eflin sign with the Rays this off-season, Kyle Gibson head south to Baltimore and Syndergaard hit free agency, so it’s not surprising they’re looking to bolster their rotation as they look to return to the World Series in 2023. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler will be back atop their rotation, with Ranger Suarez and probably Bailey Falter taking four of the spots. They do have some strong pitching prospects, including Andrew Painter and Mick Abel, working their way through the minors, but a solid, mid-rotation arm would slot in nicely to provide a bit of stability.

On the relief side of things, Corey Knebel, David Robertson and Brad Hand all departed, leaving the team a bit thin in the bullpen. Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Bellatti and Jose Alvarado will all be back, but in a competitive NL East the Phillies will need a deep bullpen. They could bring back any of the trio of free agent relievers, or target relief arms such as Taylor Rogers or Andrew Chafin.

As far as payroll goes, the signing of Turner brings them closer to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. They’re currently sitting approximately $15MM under that mark with Turner on board, and it’d be challenging for them bring in a mid-rotation starter and strong relief options and stay within that mark.

Hired as the first person to ever hold the “president of baseball operations” title for the Phillies back in 2020, Dombrowski is now set to be entrenched atop the Phillies’ baseball operations hierarchy for another half decade.

It’s been a short but thus-far successful run for Dombrowski, even if a majority of the Phillies’ 2022 World Series roster — including Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and Seranthony Dominguez — was inherited from the prior regime. Dombrowski was running the ship when the team agreed to re-sign catcher J.T. Realmuto to a five-year contract, and the first year of his four-year investment in Kyle Schwarber has paid considerable dividends. Trades made to acquire Jose Alvarado, David Robertson, Kyle Gibson, Garrett Stubbs, Noah Syndergaard and Edmundo Sosa have all worked out well thus far.

Beyond the players on the field, Dombrowski deserves credit for the leadership placed around them. The decision to fire veteran manager Joe Girardi, who was hired as skipper before Dombrowski joined the organization, and replace him with bench coach Rob Thomson was likely not one that was made lightly. Dombrowski also brought hitting coach Kevin Long into the fold in the 2021-22 offseason and has already extended him through the 2025 season.

As with any baseball operations leader, Dombrowski’s tenure in Philadelphia contains its share of both hits and misses. A two-year deal to re-sign Didi Gregorius proved regrettable, and the free-agent moves made to address the bullpen (Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Corey Knebel) haven’t panned out as hoped.

Looking specifically at the past year, the Phils entered the 2021-22 offseason with glaring holes both at shortstop and in center field, and neither was addressed heading into the 2022 season. Rather than addressing those areas and looking to improve a team known as one of the worst defensive clubs in the league over the past ten years or so, the Dombrowski-led Phillies instead inked Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to long-term contracts, committing to playing one in the field full-time in the process. Now, with Harper set for elbow surgery and likely in need of increased DH time in 2023, both Castellanos and Schwarber will again be thrust into regular defensive work. Castellanos’ first year with the Phils was a disappointment, and he’ll be looking for a rebound effort in 2023.

At shortstop, Dombrowski bucked the “farm system destroyer” narrative and held onto top prospect Bryson Stott, giving him a chance at the everyday job even in spite of a stacked free-agent class of shortstops last winter. Stott didn’t hit much and looked better at second base than at shortstop, though, and the Phillies now seem poised to be players in what is again a deep collection of shortstops.

Still, the decision to hang onto Stott and top pitching prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s prior penchant for aggressive trades that thin out the top end of a farm system in the name of win-now moves. The only truly high-end prospect he’s traded away is catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who was facing a Realmuto-sized roadblock to playing time in Philadelphia. That swap brough Brandon Marsh to the Phils, and the early returns during the regular season were strong: Marsh slashed .288/.319/.455 with the Phillies, and the hope is that he can hold down the fort in center field on a long-term basis.

Setting aside the dissection of Dombrowski’s transactions in a still relatively limited tenure with the organization, it’s clear that owner John Middleton is comfortable working with Dombrowski and believes he and GM Sam Fuld are the right pairing to continue guiding the Phillies’ World Series aspirations. Dombrowski has won World Series titles with two different organizations and has now overseen World Series berths with a whopping four organizations. That type of success across multiple franchises is generally unparalleled, and Dombrowski now potentially has five more opportunities to secure his third World Series ring with his third different organization.

Before Dombrowski finally agreed to speak with the Phillies in the 2020-21 offseason, Nightengale reports that the team had narrowed it search for a new front office boss down to Twins GM Thad Levine and former Orioles/Red Sox GM Dan Duquette.  Levine was known to be a top candidate at the time of the search, but Duquette wasn’t previously known to be on the Phillies’ radar at all.  Since parting ways with the Orioles after the 2018 season, Duquette was linked to the Pirates’ GM search before Pittsburgh hired Ben Cherington.

More from around the NL East…

• Edwin Diaz is one of several prominent Mets players slated for free agency, but the Mets “believe they have the best chance to keep” Diaz of anyone in that top-tier group, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes.  Re-signing Diaz might well cost the Mets the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, but Diaz’s case for such a deal is pretty sound, considering his excellent performance.  Since an increasing number of teams are reluctant to pay top dollar for relievers, this could give the Mets something of an advantage in keeping the All-Star in the fold.
• Also from Heyman, he reports that Raul Ibanez spoke with the Marlins about their managerial vacancy, though Ibanez took himself out of the hunt “due to family considerations.”  Ibanez has spent the last two seasons working with MLB as a senior VP of on-field operations, and previously worked as a special assistant in the Dodgers organization after retiring from his playing career.  Though he doesn’t have any managing or coaching experience, the widely-respected Ibanez has surfaced as a managerial candidate in the past, though he has consistently declined interviews.  Talking with the Marlins perhaps represents some softening on Ibanez’s stance, though since he lives in Miami, it is possible he saw this specific job as a unique opportunity.  The Marlins announced Skip Schumaker as their new skipper on Tuesday.

But it’s not barren, and there’s time yet for the Phillies to construct a competent trio in the outfield of Citizens Bank Park. By all accounts, they’re on the hunt for Harper’s next running mates. Nick Castellanos is the top pure outfielder remaining, and the Phillies have indeed checked in on him, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Morosi notes that Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski ran the show in Detroit when Castellanos was drafted, so there’s certainly some history there.

Castellanos – a first-time All-Star with the Reds last season – would certainly bring much-needed thunder to a lineup that ranked 13th in MLB by the measure of runs scored in 2021. The former Tiger, Cub, and Red hit .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs and a clean 100 RBIs last year, good for a robust 140 wRC+.

Of course, defense was a bit of a bugaboo for Joe Girardi’s club,  and Castellanos isn’t traditionally known for his merits in that department. The DH would be an option, though Rhys Hoskins is already a candidate for that role. Furthermore, Girardo will almost certainly want to earmark some of those ABs as a means for keeping Harper and J.T. Realmuto fresh.

In addition, the Phillies have been in recent contact with their on-again-off-again centerfielder Odubel Herrera, per Jim Salisbury of NBCSPhilly (via Twitter). Herrera posted 1.8 rWAR/1.1 fWAR last year as a regular in center, logging 492 trips to the dish across 124 games.

Herrera doesn’t walk a ton (5.9 percent walk rate), and his power clocks in below-average (.156 ISO), but he put the ball in play at a career-best rate last year, striking out in just 15.7 percent of his plate appearances. All in all, his bat was seven percent below average, which is absolutely palatable for a decent gloveman in center – and Herrera was that in 2021.

The Fielding Bible credited him with 2 total runs saved, while he rated decently in other systems as well (2 DRS, -1.2 UZR). Even if Herrera just holds the line in center, that might be enough for the Phils to seek a reunion. There are very few options on the free-agent market, and leaguewide, centerfield has become one of the more difficult positions to fill.

Without Herrera and Castellanos (or other additions), the Phillies have just unproven youngsters like Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley on the roster. Roman Quinn has departed, while other members of Philly’s 2021 offense Andrew McCutchen and Brad Miller are still free agents. Utility players Johan Camargo and Luke Williams are internal options, but not realistically for regular playing time.

Elsewhere in the organization, 25-year-old Matt Vierling might be a game-by-game option in the grass, while the top prospective minor leaguers on the depth chart are non-roster invitee Justin Williams and 23-year-old prospect Simon Muzziotti, who has just 50 plate appearances above High-A.

Unless “we got crushed seven games in a row, and the Mets won seven games in a row” before Friday’s trade deadline, Dombrowski said that the Phillies are planning to be buyers.  “The one thing I can safely say is we’re not in a position where we’re looking to move players,” the PBO said.  “That is not where we are.  We’re looking to add players to our club, if we can.”

Dombrowski declined to publicly comment on whether or not Phillies ownership was willing to let the team cross the $210MM luxury tax threshold, only saying that “ownership here is very supportive of trying to win.”  In terms of trades, Dombrowski didn’t rule out the addition of rental players, but “would not anticipate” that the Phillies would move top prospects for such short-term upgrades.

8:52AM: Though the Phillies are sporting a -12 run differential on the year, they may represent the most viable threat to the Mets division lead in the National League East. The Nationals are 3-7 in their last ten, now seven games behind the Mets, and the cavalry may not be coming. The Braves know they’ll be without their biggest star, and despite having the best run differential in the division right now at +26, it’s hard to consider Atlanta as a viable threat without Ronald Acuna Jr. The Marlins are 41-57, 12 games out, and they’re in full-on sell mode.

That leaves the Phillies. Though they’re exactly .500 at 48-48, that leaves them right where they’ve been for most of the Bryce Harper era. This team didn’t re-sign J.T. Realmuto and hire Dave Dombrowski to run the front office just to stand pat, however. Not only are rival executives expecting the Phillies to be aggressive this trade deadline, but they think the Phillies will be willing to exceed the luxury tax, if that’s what it takes to find the right upgrades, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

As for what the Phillies might be pursuing, there are plenty of avenues to improve the roster. Heyman suggests they could use a starter, multiple relievers and a centerfielder. Alec Bohm has not been good at third base (-0.1 fWAR), but they’re not close to moving on from the 25-year-old former top prospect.

The bullpen’s shortcomings have been thoroughly noted, and it now seems a near certainty that they’ll add at least one bullpen arm. The question is whether they’ll shell out for a premium arm like the Cubs’ Craig Kimbrel, or if they’ll target cheaper options like the Pirates’ Richard Rodriguez or Ian Kennedy of the Rangers.

They could aim even lower and shop in the non-premium section of opposing bullpens where there are plenty of viable options for the right price: the Cubs’ Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin, the Twins’ Caleb Thielbar and Tyler Duffey, or Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, and Yimi Garcia of the Marlins are a few names worth checking in on.That said, if there’s any team that might look for a fire-tested closer to take the reins, Philly would be it.

In center, Starling Marte would be the obvious target, though it’s unclear how willing the Marlins are to move him within the division — nor is it clear if the Phillies have what Miami GM Kim Ng desires in a return package. For starters, the Marlins are seeking a long-term replacement for Marte in center, per Craig Mish of the Swings and Mishes podcast. That’s going to slow trade discussions, as most teams will balk at moving a younger, cheaper option in center, especially if the Marlins are prioritizing near ML-ready prospects.

The Phillies do have some centerfield prospects they could dangle, such as Simon Muzziotti, their 10th-ranked prospect by Fangraphs, Mickey Moniak, their 8th-ranked prospect, or Johan Rojas, their 4th-ranked prospect. Of the three, Muzziotti probably comes closest to starting the conversation for Marte.

None of the three are blue-chippers, however, and only Moniak has advanced beyond High-A. Moniak, of course, was the former No. 1 overall draft pick,but he’s fallen down prospect charts since his selection in the 2016 draft. Baseball America calls him “a fourth or fifth outfielder,” and he wouldn’t likely be viewed as a centerpiece in a Marte deal.

Without a ton of options on the market, Philly might need to stick with their in-house options. Odubel Herrera has returned to action after missing all of 2020, but he’s rocking just an 86 wRC+. Travis Jankowski’s been a revelation through 68 plate appearances, though the 30-year-old was a 76 wRC+ hitter through 994 plate appearances prior to this season. The fact remains that outside of Marte, there aren’t a ton of available centerfielders on the market.

The Phillies might have an easier time upgrading their pitching staff, especially given the low bar. Beyond the bullpen, Philadelphia needs more for the rotation, though Dombrowski hasn’t exactly succeeded in that regard thus far, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Offseason additions Matt Moore and Chase Anderson have posted -0.1 fWAR apiece while earning a combined $7MM.

Philly starters have a 4.21 ERA, which ranks 21st in the Majors overall, though they’re 12th by the measure of a 3.97 combined FIP. They rank 10th overall in innings pitched. Still, they could conceivably find upgrades for 60 percent of the rotation, given the uncertain track records of Vince Velasquez and rookie Spencer Howard. It’s unlikely they’ll find three starters, but it’s also hard to reason Dombrowski coming away from the trade deadline without any new arms in the rotation.

Cole Hamels has been a popular name of late, and it would certainly be fun to see the 37-year-old back in a Phillies uniform. He also comes with the added benefit of not costing prospects. Hamels alone won’t be enough, but there’s not much risk in seeing if he can upgrade Moore’s spot in the rotation.

• With middle infielders flying off the shelves, Kolten Wong is seeing an uptick in interest, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The ace defensive second baseman has seen at least preliminary interest from the Tigers, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire career. Wong’s power disappeared in 2020, slashing .265/.350/.326, but he won a second consecutive Gold Glove Award and continued to be an on-base presence for the Cardinals. Wong has quietly posted 3.3 bWAR per 600 plate appearances throughout his career, and as he enters his age-30 season, he could prove one of the more impactful free agents remaining on the market.
• The Tigers plan on experimenting with Isaac Paredes at second base, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Paredes is penciled in as the Tigers’ everyday third baseman, but manager A.J. Hinch said basically that there is no harm in expanding the 21-year-old’s skill set. He’s been on fire playing winter ball, and with Jeimer Candelario having a big season in 2020 (and Spencer Torkelson on his way to claim one of the infield corners,) it’s certainly worth testing the limits of Paredes’ defensive abilities.

More out of the National League:

• The Phillies have revamped their front office this winter, bringing in Dave Dombrowski as president of baseball operations and promoting Sam Fuld to general manager. Dombrowski has final say over personnel decisions. That’s not a responsibility he’s planning to give up any time soon, but Dombrowski acknowledged that part of his job is to prepare Fuld to potentially lead his own front office someday. “I’m not looking to move out because I just started with the Phillies organization, I have a lot of energy and I look to do this for a while,” Dombrowski told reporters (including Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia). “I’m not, though, 44. I’m 64. And if I’m doing my job correctly and we’re doing our job correctly, as Sam progresses, he will be the guy making those types of decisions, the final decisions. That’s where my goal is.” Seidman chronicles Fuld’s quick ascent as an executive in a piece that’s worth reading in full.
• The Phillies were among the teams interested in right-hander José Ureña, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Ureña ultimately wound up signing a one-year deal with the Tigers. The 29-year-old had spent his entire pro career with the Phils’ division rivals in Miami, pitching to a 4.60 ERA/4.74 FIP over parts of six seasons with the Marlins.
• The Cardinals have been exploring “cash-neutral” trades this winter, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch as part of a reader mailbag. More specifically, a framework in which St. Louis moves MLB pitching for big league ready offensive help makes some sense, Goold feels. Cardinals hitters ranked just nineteenth leaguewide in park-adjusted hitting last season, with particularly dismal work from the outfielders. The St. Louis organization has generally been expected to have a quiet offseason after chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. claimed the baseball industry “isn’t very profitable” in June. Nevertheless, the front office exploring cash-neutral deals perhaps hints there’s no organizational mandate to further slash costs. St. Louis currently projects for a 2021 payroll around $131MM, per Roster Resource, after opening the 2020 season in the $167MM range (before prorating).

Whether Scherzer’s baseball future is in the District or elsewhere has yet to be determined, as Scherzer is entering the final year of his contract.  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo recently stated that there hadn’t yet been any extension talks with the right-hander, and Scherzer also said he hasn’t heard anything about negotiations.  Obviously, there’s plenty of time before the season for the two sides to discuss continuing what has thus far been an incredibly successful relationship, though Scherzer still sees 2021 as more unfinished business.  “I still have another year left to really try and execute this contract,” Scherzer said.  “That’s just kind of how I try to work.  I’m not going to sit here and try to reflect upon six years when I’ve still got a year left.”

More from around the NL East…

• The Phillies’ hiring of Dave Dombrowski as their new president of baseball operations caught many around in the sport by surprise, including Dombrowski himself on some level.  As Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription required) writes in his chronicle of Philadelphia’s front office search, “In a little more than 30 hours, Dave Dombrowski had gone from ’sorry’ to ’when do I start?’ And he’d never seen it coming.”  Stark’s piece details the many ins and outs of the Phillies’ search, which a close but ultimately fruitless courtship of Twins GM Thad Levine, and Dombrowski himself twice rejecting the team’s overtures to focus on his position as part of a group attempting to bring an MLB franchise to Nashville.  After Dombrowski learned that MLB was unlikely to either expand or relocate a team any time soon, he gave renewed consideration to the Phillies’ pitch and a deal came together quite quickly.
• On paper, “the match seemed perfect” between J.T. Realmuto and the Mets to line up on a free agent deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes.  However, “the Mets wanted to move more quickly than Realmuto,” so New York pivoted away from Realmuto to sign the next-best catcher on the market in James McCann.  Time will tell if either side might have erred, whether it was the Mets by being too aggressive or Realmuto by not being aggressive enough.
• The Braves officially announced their 2021 coaching staff, including the additions of Bobby Magallanes as a second assistant hitting coach and the hiring of Drew French as the new bullpen coach.  Magallanes has been with Atlanta’s organization for the last two seasons, first working as a hitting coach at the Triple-A level in 2019 and then as an assistant hitting instructor in 2020, which already included a lot of work with the MLB roster.  French has spent the past five seasons with the Astros, working in such roles as Triple-A pitching coach in 2019 and instructing at Houston’s alternate training site last season.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

• On the timeline of this hiring: Team president and longtime friend Andy MacPhail reached out to Dombrowski on Saturday to try and connect him with Phillies managing partner John Middleton. The Phillies had been one of the clubs to contact Dombrowski early in the offseason, but he wasn’t interested at that time. What changed was that he was given some new information from the commissioner’s office, who recently told Dombrowski and the Nashville group that expansion wasn’t going to happen for a couple of years. With that timeline pushed back, Dombrowski decided to take Middleton’s call. They spoke on Tuesday, and by Wednesday they were coming to an agreement.
• On immediate plans for free agency: Dombrowski doesn’t anticipate making wholesale changes in the organization right now. He repeated that his preference is to get to know the people currently installed within the organization, gauge their roles and responsibilities, strengths and so on before making any significant changes. The organization does plan to cut payroll from last season, which pours water on the idea that Dombrowski would run right over to sign J.T. Realmuto or anyone else to a monster contract.
• On the whole, Dombrowski came across as very measured and patient in his approach. “I don’t think anyone thinks we’re a player away,” Dombrowski said of the Phillies, who are stuck in a nine-year playoff drought. When presented with the question of rebuild or retool, he unequivocally categorized the roster as a retooling situation.
• On his trading record: Asked about a trade from his rearview that he regrets, Dombrowski mentioned dealing former Tigers infield prospect Eugenio Suarez to the Reds for righty Alfredo Simon – a transaction that occurred six years ago today. The thinking was that the Tigers had depth in the infield, and they needed an affordable starter. He also made a point to say that he’s “a big believer in young players.”
• Clearly aware of his reputation as a wheeler and dealer, Dombrowski seemed to want to reset the record, at least to give him time to read reports, watch video, and get to know the organization. Trades made in the past, he noted, were more about matching value and team needs at the time, not as much about an inherent mistrust of young players. If he can trade for a player he likes, while giving up players he and the rest of his front office are less high on, that’s a given. But there are also times – like the Chris Sale trade in Boston – where Dombrowski knew he was giving up talented players. Sale, however, fit the timeline and scale of talent the Red Sox needed.
• On relocating to Philadelphia: Dombrowski said that he’s planning to stay where he is for now, as nobody from the organization is going into the office. He also noted that he contracted COVID-19 about a month ago, and while it was not an easy process, he is fully recovered.
• Lastly, to help build the GM profile, here are some quick-and-dirty strategic preferences Dombrowski noted. He’s on board with exit velocity and launch angles, but he still prefers hitters who use all fields. Dombrowski understands and agrees with the move away from stolen bases, but he’s not on the far end of that spectrum – he can still appreciate a stolen base or two. The closer mentality is not a myth, but nor is it unwise to use an arm in a high-leverage spot if that’s a manager’s preference. Dombrowski used to believe in building a bullpen around a closer and a setup man, but now depth is an important element. He has always believed in pitching and power arms. Don’t expect the Phillies to move to openers anytime soon, as he still aims for his starters to go seven innings, pitch count allowing.

The news broke yesterday, but today, the organization formally announced Dombrowski as their first-ever President of Baseball Operations. He signed for four years and $20MM, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca points out, that’s the most money handed out to a free agent so far this winter.

Dombrowski comes heavily decorated. He won the World Series in 1997 with the Marlins and in 2018 with the Red Sox. He built two pennant winners with the Detroit Tigers (2006, 2012). He has 31 total years of experience running an MLB franchise, and he’s the only general manager in MLB history to lead three different franchises to the World Series. That’s quite the feather in his cap. He’s also the only two-time winner of Baseball America’s Executive of the Year award.

In the press release, managing partner John Middleton said this of Dombrowski:

This is a great day for the Philadelphia Phillies. David Dombrowski is one of the most accomplished executives this great game has ever seen, and we are thrilled to welcome him to Philadelphia. Between David and Joe Girardi, we now have two of the best people in place to set us on the path back to where we want to be, and that is the postseason and contending for world championships.

Interestingly, the press release also made special mention of Dombrowski’s track record of success in the draft, listing Rondell White, Cliff Floyd, Charles Johnson, Cameron Maybin, Mark Kotsay, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Nicholas Castellanos, Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Rick Porcello among the standouts. That’s noteworthy particularly in the context of previous comments made by team president Andy MacPhail back in October when they began their search, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. :

Our R&D department has been good with one exception. I’m just being blunt. I look at Tampa. They’re able to unlock the hidden value or potential in minor-league players that have been around a while that they recognize something that we’re not picking up on yet. I think that’s one thing that this franchise needs to improve on. Our R&D needs to obviously help with that.

Specifically, the Phillies were seeking someone with a track record of success in player evaluation. For more insight into Philadelphia’s thinking, let’s take a cue from Brad Pitt in Moneyball: What’s the problem? As Gelb helpfully reminds us, at the time of former GM Matt Klentak’s reassignment, Middleton said this:

I think the problem the Phillies have had for a hundred years is they don’t evaluate talent well.

Dombrowski’s win-now mentality is getting headline treatment, with assumptions being made about the free agent dollars Dombrowki will spend and the prospects he will trade away. The Phillies themselves, however, are underlining some other aspects of Dombrowski’s resume. Player evaluation plays a role in every aspect of roster building, of course. Still, it’s intriguing that system building has been at the forefront of Philly’s messaging in the early going.

Dombrowski will answer questions from the media this afternoon.

Dec. 10: The Phillies are in “advanced stages” of talks to hire Dave Dombrowski as their new president of baseball ops, reports the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Dombrowski has the job, Jon Heyman of MLB Network confirms.

This news come as a surprise. Dombrowski had been linked to the Angels’ front office position, but he was said to be content in his role with the Nashville group. Apparently, the role in Philadelphia was appealing enough to lure him from his responsibilities working to bring baseball back to Nashville.

Dombrowski boasts four successful runs with four different franchises throughout his illustrious career, which began in 1988 when he was elevated to the position of general manager for the Montreal Expos. Dombrowski went from farm director to assistant GM to general manager in the span of three years, matching the term length he’d end up with as the frontman in Montreal (1988-1991). From there, he went south to architect the Marlins run from expansion team to World Champion in 1997. He stayed in Florida from 1992 until 2001. From there, he rejuvenated a long-troubled Tigers franchise. He took Detroit to the World Series twice from 2002 to 2015 before leaving to join the Boston Red Sox.

With Boston, Dombrowski left a legacy of handing out large contracts to veteran players and running up a luxury tax bill – but his contribution was much more nuanced. His single-minded purpose to win and willingness to spend go against the fashionable trends of the day, and ownership didn’t appreciate the direction he was moving the team in 2019. That said, he has a history of successful trades, including in Boston where he sent out prospects to add Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, and Craig Kimbrel en route to winning the 2018 World Series. Despite the ring, Dombrowski was removed from his role in September 2019.

The Phillies have been looking for a new decision-maker since re-assigning Matt Klentak from his role as general manager. If there was any uncertainty about who was running things in Philadelphia, the hierarchy is now clear. Dombrowski is a hand-on executive who has enough experience in the game to set a clear direction.

Dombrowski’s history in the win-now tradition blends well with Philly’s stated direction. He not only matches the Phillies’ competitive ethos, but he’s about as accomplished an executive as exists in the game, having taken three different franchises to the World Series.

Assuming this hire goes through, it’s certainly a statement hire and a big win for what the Phillies were hoping to accomplish. But Dombrowski enters a fraught situation. He’s faced  immediately with the J.T. Realmuto question – a pricey free agent that it hurts to lose. Dombrowski will have his work cut out for him in Philadelphia.

Still, alignment between ownership and the front office goes a long way to establishing the type of culture that wins World Series. Managing partner John Middleton clearly thirsts to bring a winner back to Philly, and he’s been walking the walk, beginning with the signing  of Bryce Harper to a monster 13-year, $330MM contact. Middleton has put his money on the line, but the spending hasn’t spawned enough victories. The Phillies have been unable to get back to the postseason since their run of five consecutive postseason appearances ended in 2012.