Sammons made his big league debut as a 29-year-old rookie this past season, pitching 27 1/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball for the Tigers during their Cinderella push to the playoffs. The 6’4″ southpaw averaged 91.5 mph on his heater, fanned 17.3% of his opponents and logged a 8.7% walk rate. Sammons spent the bulk of his 2024 season in Triple-A Toledo, where he pitched 102 innings with a 4.15 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Detroit outrighted Sammons off the 40-man roster after the season, and he became a minor league free agent.

The move to Japan is the latest step in the type of baseball odyssey for which all fans love to cheer. The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen penned a fantastic look at Sammons’ journey from under-recruited high schooler to an eighth-round pick of the Twins who wound up being released both by Minnesota and by Houston. (Readers are highly encouraged to check out Stavenhagen’s piece in full.) Sammons, who graduated from Western Carolina with an engineering degree, contemplated giving up baseball entirely to pursue a more traditional career before taking one last shot and pitching in the Atlantic League. Just over a year later, he was on the mound at Comerica Park.

While Sammons is joining the same team for which Roki Sasaki has starred in his NPB career, he’s effectively taking the place of veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel, who started eight games for the Marines in the second half of the 2024 NPB season. The Marines announced in early December that Keuchel had been released and was a free agent. Sammons’ role will be determined, but manager Masahito Yoshii said his hope is that Sammons can pitch out of the rotation in 2025 (link via Yahoo Japan).

Keuchel, 36, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners over the winter but was acquired by Milwaukee for cash last month. He’d gotten out to a nice start with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma (71 innings, 3.93 ERA, 15.6% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 59.5% grounder rate), and a Brewers club in dire need of rotation innings turned to the former Cy Young winner to help patch their injury-ravaged staff. Keuchel had two tough starts and two solid ones for the Brew Crew, pitching a total of 16 2/3 innings with an 11-to-8 K/BB ratio and 52.5% ground-ball rate before being designated.

Keuchel had a similar but lengthier stint as a depth starter with the Twins down the stretch in 2023, appearing in 10 games (six of them starts) and posting a 5.97 ERA in 37 2/3 frames. As with Milwaukee, he had his share of solid appearances in the Twin Cities but was also hit quite hard on a few occasions.

It’s been years since Keuchel, the 2015 American League Cy Young winner, was a solid member of a big league rotation. He made 11 starts and tossed 63 1/3 innings of sparkling 1.99 ERA ball with the White Sox in the shortened 2020 season, but the final two seasons of his three-year, $55.5MM deal in Chicago was a disaster. Dating back to 2021, Keuchel has pitched to a grisly 6.24 ERA in 277 innings — a far cry from the 1126 innings of 3.25 ERA ball he compiled in his 2014-20 peak.

Rough as Keuchel’s recent results have been, the veteran southpaw has pitched quite well in Triple-A over the past few seasons. This year’s 88.1 mph average velocity on his sinker obviously sits well below the league average but is also his best mark since a strong 2019 season with the Braves, when he averaged 88.3 mph. Keuchel worked with Driveline Baseball during the early part of the ’23 season to restore some of his dwindling velocity and parlayed that into his deal with the Twins. He’s now added a bit more life to the sinker and still looked sharp in two of his four Milwaukee appearances. A club in need of some rotation depth figures to scoop him up on a minor league pact in the coming weeks.

Keuchel, 36, was acquired by Milwaukee in a trade with the Mariners late last month while the veteran southpaw was on a minor league deal with Seattle. He was added to the Brewers’ roster shortly thereafter and ended up making four starts for the club. He posted a 5.40 ERA with just 11 strikeouts against eight walks in his 16 2/3 innings of work for the club, and yesterday surrendered three runs on eight hits in just three innings of work in a start against the Nationals. The Brewers will now have seven days to either work out a trade involving Keuchel or attempt to pass him through waivers. The 13-year MLB veteran has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and return to free agency after clearing waivers, if he so chooses.

While the veteran struggled during his time in Milwaukee, it’s certainly possible that his time in the Mariners’ system could get him another look at the big league level with a pitching-hungry club. After all, the lefty posted a solid 3.93 ERA in 13 starts that becomes even more impressive when you consider the fact that he was pitching in the inflated offensive environment of Triple-A’s Pacific Coast League. While he struck out just 15.6% of opponents in those games, his ability to generate grounders was as impressive as ever as he posted a 59.5% groundball rate. With clubs around the game in the hunt for starting pitching prior to the deadline and few clear sellers, it’s at least feasible that a team in need of pitching could give Keuchel a look after the impending All Star break in hopes he could provide depth in the event they’re unable to land a more impactful arm.

As for Kuhnel, the 29-year-old first made his big league debut 2019 and has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons at this point, though his only extended opportunity came with Cincinnati back in 2022. The results left much to be desired, as Kuhnel posting a 6.36 ERA in 58 innings of work that was 31% worse than league average by ERA+. Despite that, underlying metrics actually thought the righty pitched fairly well that year as his FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA were all better than average thanks to his solid 22% strikeout rate, an excellent 5.5% walk rate, and an above-average 52.2% groundball rate.

Those solid peripheral numbers haven’t enough to get him consistent work in the years since then, however, as he’s pitched just 15 innings in the big leagues since the start of the 2023 season. Those limited opportunities generally haven’t gone well, as Kuhnel has posted a ghastly 7.20 ERA and a 5.84 FIP in that limited big league playing time. Even so, both the Blue Jays and Brewers have added Kuhnel to their 40-man roster this year after he was designated for assignment by the Astros early in the season. He’s yet to appear in the big leagues with either of those clubs, although now he’ll get the opportunity to do with with Milwaukee after having his contract selected by the Brewers for the second time this year. The righty’s numbers at the Triple-A level have been excellent this year, as he’s posted a 2.30 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of work despite a lackluster 15% strikeout rate.

In additional Brewers news, the team has placed catcher/DH Gary Sánchez on the 10-day IL (retroactive to June 24) with a left calf strain. The strain is “low-grade” according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, so Sánchez likely won’t be out too long. In the meantime, however, the team has selected veteran backstop Eric Haase from Triple-A Nashville to take over as the backup catcher. The team freed up an additional spot on the 40-man roster by transferring right-hander Joe Ross from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL. Ross is now ineligible to return until July 20 at the earliest.

11:51 am: The Brewers will select the contract of Dallas Keuchel ahead of this afternoon’s game against the Rangers, reports Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. The 2015 AL Cy Young winner came over to the organization from the Mariners on Tuesday in exchange for cash considerations. Milwaukee will need to open up a spot for Keuchel on the 26-man and 40-man rosters.

Keuchel’s start today will be his 2024 debut. After a highly successful seven-year tenure with the Astros from 2012-18, the southpaw signed a one-year deal with the Braves in 2019 followed by a three-year deal with the White Sox ahead of the 2020 campaign. Although he made a strong first impression in his first season on the South Side of Chicago (1.99 ERA in 11 starts), he struggled over the next two years, ultimately getting released in May 2022.

After brief stints with the Diamondbacks and Rangers during the 2022 season, Keuchel signed a minor league deal with the Twins in June 2023. He ultimately made 10 appearances (6 starts) for Minnesota, putting up a 5.97 ERA in 37 2/3 innings pitched. While his overall numbers were disappointing, his 3.04 FIP and 4.10 xFIP against lefty batters were promising evidence that the veteran can still retire same-handed hitters.

Keuchel went unsigned throughout the 2023-24 offseason before inking a minor league deal with the Mariners this past April. The 36-year-old was released in May but signed a new minor league pact with the organization three days later. Under the terms of that agreement, he will make a prorated portion of $1.5 million for the time he spends with the Brewers, with the opportunity to earn additional incentives (per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

Milwaukee has lost a full rotation’s worth of starting pitchers to the IL this year. DL Hall and Joe Ross are currently working their way back from their respective injuries, but Robert Gasser and Wade Miley are done for the season. Brandon Woodruff, who underwent shoulder surgery last fall, is also out for the year. Jakob Junis, who opened the year in the rotation, returned from a long stint on the IL this past weekend. However, is currently pitching out of the bullpen. Thus, it is clear to see why the Brewers could use an arm like Keuchel. While he has not had much major league success since the 2020 season, he can eat innings for Milwaukee, and he offers the team a left-handed option in the rotation. He has a 3.93 ERA but a 5.51 FIP in 13 starts at Triple-A this year.

Right-hander Colin Rea was originally scheduled to start this afternoon. Thankfully for the Brewers, there is no evidence to suggest Rea was scratched due to injury concerns, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Rather, manager Pat Murphy might simply prefer to give Rea an extra couple of days of rest. With 82 innings under his belt this season, the 33-year-old is on pace to surpass his previous professional career high in innings pitched. Given all the pitching injuries the Brewers have already suffered this year, keeping Rea strong and healthy is of paramount importance.

Keuchel, 36, signed a minors deal with the Mariners and has made 13 Triple-A starts on the year to this point. He has allowed 3.93 earned runs per nine innings, despite pitching in the hitter-friendly environs of the Pacific Coast League. His 15.6% strikeout rate on the year is subpar but he’s always succeeded by limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground, which has been the case again this year. He has a 7.6% walk rate and 59.5% ground ball rate for the Rainiers.

That’s generally been the recipe for Keuchel in his career, as he has thrown 1625 2/3 innings with a 4.02 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 57.7% ground ball rate. At his peak, he won the 2015 American League Cy Young by posting a 2.48 ERA with the Astros, but his results have tailed off since then. He has a 6.29 ERA since the start of 2021, bouncing to the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Twins in that time.

Those lesser results of late are why he had to settle for a minor league deal and why he may not have been able to crack Seattle’s rotation. They may lose Bryan Woo to the injured list, as he departed last night’s start with some hamstring tightness. But even if Woo is bound for the IL, the Mariners have a rotation consisting of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, with Emerson Hancock and Jhonathan Díaz candidates to come up and replace Woo.

The Brewers, however, have far more motivation for taking a shot on a veteran like Keuchel. They knew coming into the season that Brandon Woodruff would have to spend the whole season on the injured list recovering from shoulder surgery, but he has since been given plenty of company on the IL. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser both required UCL surgery and are also out for the year, while guys like Joe Ross and DL Hall are on the shelf due to other issues. Jakob Junis has been reinstated from the IL but has been working in relief.

That has left Milwaukee with a fairly patchwork rotation behind Freddy Peralta. The club moved Bryse Wilson from the bullpen to a starting role and he has a passable 4.24 ERA but less impressive peripherals. Colin Rea is similar, as he’s a 33-year-old journeyman with a 3.62 ERA on the year despite a tepid 15.6% strikeout rate. Tobias Myers and Carlos Rodríguez are both in their debut seasons and have limited experience. Rodríguez has a 7.30 ERA while Myers is at 3.12, though the underlying numbers suggest that performance from Myers may not be sustainable.

It’s far easier to see Keuchel slotting into that mix than the one in Seattle, so the Mariners have pocketed some cash and let him pursue an opportunity with the Brewers. Despite the rotation challenges, the Brewers are atop the National League Central, five games clear of the Cardinals, and could use some veteran stability between now and perhaps making further moves at the trade deadline.

If Milwaukee plans to add Keuchel to their roster, they will need to make a corresponding move, though that shouldn’t be a problem. As mentioned, Gasser is out for the year but he has not yet been transferred to the 60-day IL, so that’s an easy way for the Brewers to open a spot.

Kuhnel, 29, has bounced around the league this year. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros in the offseason and made that club’s roster in mid-April. He was later designated for assignment and flipped to the Blue Jays in a cash deal, though that club kept him on optional assignment before eventually designated him for assignment again. He cleared waivers and elected free agency, which led to his minor league deal with the Brewers a couple of weeks back.

Around those transactions, he has tossed 25 Triple-A innings between three different organizations with a 2.52 earned run average, 14.3% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and a lot of ground balls. Those peripherals are fairly in line with his major league track record, which consists of 85 2/3 innings dating back to his 2019 debut with the Reds. In that time, he has a 6.30 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 52.2% ground ball rate.

He’ll give the club a fresh arm in their bullpen for the time being. He is in his final option season and can be easily sent back to Nashville at some point if the Brewers would like. He has not yet reached arbitration and could be retained beyond this season if he holds his 40-man spot all year, though he’ll be out of options next year.

Rodríguez was recently promoted for a rotation audition but currently has a 7.30 ERA through three starts. His optioning perhaps suggests that Keuchel will be added to the club’s roster to take that spot shortly. As noted by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X, the club lists tomorrow’s starter as TBA, with Colin Rea having previously been in that spot. That perhaps suggests that Keuchel will take the ball tomorrow and Rea will get an extra day of rest, though more information will undoubtedly be forthcoming between now and then.

As for Gasser, it was reported last week that he will require UCL surgery and is done for the year, so this transfer was an inevitable formality.

Keuchel, 36, was once one of the best pitchers in the league, even winning the American League Cy Young in 2015. But he has been more in journeyman mode over the past three years. He made 175 starts from 2014 to 2020 with an earned run average of 3.25 over that stretch. His 19.8% strikeout rate in that time wasn’t special, but he limited walks to a 6.7% clip and got grounders on 59.6% of balls in play. That grounder rate was the highest in all of baseball, among those with at least 450 innings pitched in that time period.

His rate stats began to trend in the wrong direction in 2021, as his ERA jumped to 5.28. In 2022, things got even worse and he was released by the White Sox, later bouncing to the Diamondbacks and and Rangers for brief stints. He finished that year with a ghastly ERA of 9.20 in 60 2/3 innings. His ground ball rate fell to 50.2%, still strong but well below his previous levels. He only struck out 14.9% of batters faced and gave out walks at a 10.2% clip.

Last year, he worked out with Driveline Baseball in an attempt to regain some lost velocity and movement on his pitches, eventually landing a minor league deal with the Twins in June. He tossed 32 innings at the Triple-A level with a 1.13 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 61.5% ground ball rate. That ERA was a mirage as he wasn’t going to maintain a 95% strand rate but his 4.17 FIP was still an improvement over the form he showed in the previous year.

The Twins added him to the big league roster at the start of August and he tossed 37 2/3 innings down the stretch in a swing role but his work wasn’t as impressive in the bigs, as he posted a 5.97 ERA in that time. His 14.5% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate and 52.8% ground ball rate were all fairly close to his 2022 numbers.

The Seattle rotation recently took a hit when Bryan Woo landed on the injured list due to some elbow inflammation. They still have a strong group of five guys with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock in the rotation, but Keuchel will give them some extra depth. He will presumably need a few weeks to get into game shape anyway after missing Spring Training and the rotation picture could easily change between now and then.

Celestino made his debut with the Twins back in 2021 before stepping into a regular role with the club last season, when he appeared in 122 games. Celestino slashed .222/.292/.300 across 409 trips to the plate for the Twins those two years, though he did not appear in the big leagues this season after undergoing th that cost him the first half of the 2023 campaign. Celestino struggled somewhat at the Triple-A level following his return from the injured list, slashing just .243/.392/.389, a noticeable departure from his .290/.384/.443 slash line at the level in 2021.

Going forward, the Twins will have seven days to waive Celestino, who can then be claimed by any interested club. The Twins can outright Celestino if he clears waivers, though it should be noted that he would be eligible to elect free agency following the conclusion of the 2023 campaign if not added back to the 40-man roster.

Celestino’s departure makes way for Alcala, 27, to return from the injured list. The right-hander made his big league debut with the Twins back in 2019 and has spent parts of five seasons with the big league club, posting a 3.84 ERA and 4.35 FIP in 103 innings of work. Alcala’s 2023 season has been a difficult one, as the righty struggled to a 6.46 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work at the big league level with a 6.84 FIP. Alcala was placed on the 15-day IL in the middle of May due to a stress fracture in his right forearm and didn’t appear in the majors or minors again until he began a rehab assignment in September. Alcala has now returned in time for the final game of the regular season to help the Twins eat innings ahead of the club’s appearance in the AL Wild Card series, which starts Tuesday.

Keuchel has two All Star appearances, a Cy Young award, and five Gold Gloves throughout his career but struggled in recent seasons, with a 6.35 ERA in 222 2/3 innings of work across the 2021 and 2022 seasons with the White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. Keuchel returned to the big leagues with the Twins back in August and has provided the club with a solid depth option for the rotation, pitching to a 5.40 ERA with a 4.25 FIP in 35 innings of work across nine appearances (six starts).  Speaking with the Associated Press and other reporters, Keuchel said he would like to continue his career in 2024.

AUGUST 25: The Twins are listing Joe Ryan as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s game with the Rangers. They’ll need to reinstate him from the 15-day injured list. Ryan will oppose Max Scherzer in the third contest of a four-game set.

Ryan missed three weeks after straining his left groin. It isn’t clear if he’d been pitching through discomfort before his IL placement. His results immediately prior to landing on the shelf had taken a sharp downturn, though. Ryan carried a 3.70 ERA through 107 innings into the All-Star Break. He was tagged for 18 runs in 19 frames in four starts out of the Break, pushing his season mark to a middling 4.43 earned runs per nine.

Whether that was directly tied to his groin concern, the Twins will hope the few weeks off allows Ryan to recapture his early-season form. His return could lead to a roster decision for the front office and manager Rocco Baldelli. Ryan joins Pablo López and Sonny Gray at the top of the rotation. The Twins have filled out the starting staff with Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel — whose contract was selected at the time Ryan landed on the IL — this month.

Maeda has a 2.91 ERA while striking out 32% of opponents in 11 starts since returning from an IL stint of his own at the end of June. Ober still has minor league options remaining, but he’s been a quietly effective rotation piece. Over 21 starts and 118 2/3 innings, the third-year hurler owns a 3.41 ERA and has fanned just under a quarter of batters faced. He’s clearly deserving of a spot on the big league staff.

Perhaps that leaves Keuchel as the odd man out. The former Cy Young winner has tossed 13 innings over three outings, allowing seven runs. He has struck out just three against four walks and a hit by pitch. He’s averaging 87.5 MPH on his sinker and has gotten swinging strikes on only 6.3% of his pitches.

On the other hand, Keuchel’s ground-ball rate sits at an excellent 56.3%. That’s not quite at the levels of his peak days in Houston but is markedly above last season’s 50.2% mark. Keuchel also kept the ball on the ground at a huge 61.1% clip through six Triple-A starts before his call-up, posting a 1.13 ERA in the process.

Earlier this week, Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote that the Twins were considering the possibility of a six-man rotation after Ryan’s activation. That’d allow the coaching staff some flexibility in workload management. Maeda missed all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, though he’s only at 74 2/3 frames this year. Ober has shouldered the heaviest work of his career in 2023. Including four Triple-A starts in the opening month, he’s at 136 1/3 frames for the year. His previous high for combined innings was 108 1/3 during the ’21 campaign.

Hayes also indicates that piggybacking some combination of Ober, Maeda and Keuchel could be on the table. That’d be another means of limiting workload while reducing the number of times those pitchers face an opponent a third time in a game. While keeping all six starters on the roster would temporarily shorten the bullpen, teams are permitted to add one pitcher to the MLB club on September 1.

Keuchel, 35, is looking to bounce back from a rough stretch in the big leagues in the previous two years. After close to a decade of effective pitching, including a Cy Young-winning season in 2015, the lefty allowed 6.35 earned runs per nine innings over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He started that time period with the White Sox but bounced to the Diamondbacks and Rangers last year, with each club trying unsuccessfully to get him back to his previous form.

The Twins signed him to a minor league in June of this year, at which time it was reported that he had done some work with Driveline Baseball to restore some velocity and movement to his pitches. The early results of that have been encouraging, as he made six Triple-A starts lately with a 1.13 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 61.5% ground ball rate.

He had a couple of opt-outs on that minor league deal, the first of which was about two weeks ago. He skipped that first chance, likely due to the fact that his second chance would be on trade deadline day, when new opportunities might emerge. He triggered that second opt-out on Tuesday, giving the Twins 48 hours to either select his contract or release him back to free agency.

There were arguments to both sides of the choice. On the one hand, Keuchel had previously shown literal Cy Young upside and was again posting encouraging results. On the other hand, his recent improved form was a small sample in the minors and it’s been quite a while since he was effective at the major league level. Plus, the Twins had a strong group of five starters in Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Pablo López and Bailey Ober. But it now seems Keuchel will get his shot after all, with Ryan now going on the IL.

It’s unclear exactly when Ryan suffered his injury but his results have been getting worse as the season has gone along. His ERA was sitting at 2.98 after a complete game shutout against the Red Sox on June 22. Since then, however, he’s allowed 31 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings, bringing his season ERA to 4.43.

It hasn’t been reported how long Ryan is expected to be out, but it seems Keuchel will take his spot in the rotation for at least a couple of turns. The southpaw will try to revive his reputation as a viable major league starter while the Twins try to hold onto the lead in the American League Central. They just barely have a winning record at 55-54 but that’s still good enough for a two-game cushion in the division.

De León required Tommy John surgery in June, so this transfer was an inevitable formality. He’ll be out for the rest of this year and at least the first half of next year as well.

Since inking that minors pact in June, Keuchel has a very impressive 1.13 ERA over six starts and 32 Triple-A innings.  His 21.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate are nothing to write home about, but his 61.5% grounder rate indicates that the 35-year-old is still very capable of keeping the ball in the park.  The Triple-A numbers are at least a hint that Keuchel might have something left in the tank, after a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 innings with the White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Rangers during the 2021-22 seasons left some impression that Keuchel’s career might be over.

This is the second of two opt-out dates in Keuchel’s contract, as he passed on triggering his first date on July 21.  Since his second opt-out date fell on the day of the trade deadline, it was more logical for Keuchel to wait and access his options to see what the Twins or other teams might need pitching-wise now that they’re prohibited from addressing those needs on the trade market.

The Twins’ pitching depth led to some trade calls pre-deadline, though Minnesota chose to retain all of their starters.  As such, the Twins will make their push for the AL Central title with their current staff of Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, plus Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson are in the minors as depth, and Chris Paddack might be back from Tommy John surgery in September.

On paper, there doesn’t appear to be a clear opening for Keuchel to make regular starts in Minnesota, so the Twins might pass on keeping the veteran in the organization.  Keuchel might instead find an opportunity on a team that is out of the race and looking to fill innings down the stretch, or it’s even possible that a contender might see Keuchel as a fallback option if that club didn’t add a starter at the deadline (or if an injury arises in the coming days).  Ghiroli previously reported that if Keuchel’s contract is selected to the majors, he’ll earn the prorated portion of a $2.05MM salary.

Reports from earlier this week suggested that Minnesota had at least considered moving Maeda, and that the Twins were getting interest in general about their rotation depth.  Since it would count as a major shock if any of Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober were traded, pending free agents Gray and Maeda seem like far more viable trade candidates, even if the odds of either moving don’t seem too high.

As Hayes notes, there’s no harm for Minnesota in testing the market for Gray or Maeda, just in case a team desperate for starting pitching is willing to overpay as other options are removed from the board as the deadline approaches.  Re-signing both Gray and Maeda this winter doesn’t seem likely whatsoever, and it seems quite possible that the Twins might let both veteran pitchers walk in free agency.  Ergo, exploring trade opportunities now is a logical tactic, especially if another team is willing to offer the right-handed hitting or bullpen help that the Twins are currently looking to obtain.

Dallas Keuchel has looked great for Triple-A Saint Paul since signing a minor league deal with the Twins back in June, as the former AL Cy Young Award winner has a 1.13 ERA over 32 innings.  Since Keuchel has an opt-out clause in his contract on August 1 (trade deadline day), some kind of decision is coming soon, and Keuchel could be the logical replacement if Minnesota did move Gray or Maeda.  In terms of Keuchel himself as a trade chip, Hayes writes that there is only “minimal interest” from other clubs, which isn’t surprising given how Keuchel’s MLB results have so badly tailed off in the last two seasons.  The southpaw has a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2021 campaign, and he has yet to see any big league action in 2023.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said earlier this week that the club’s left-handed hitting outfielders were drawing interest, and Hayes reports that Trevor Larnach in particular has been on the radar of the Mets and Padres.  Larnach is only a couple of years removed from being a top-100 prospect, though he has a modest .223/.315/.380 slash line over 669 career plate appearances.  This lack of performance and a season-ending core muscle surgery in 2022 have kept Larnach from really establishing himself in the majors, not to mention how the Twins’ outfield depth has led to Larnach spending a lot of extra time at Triple-A.

Since Larnach is only 26 and has a limited sample size of MLB experience, it makes sense why the Padres, Mets, and probably several other teams would want to bet on a post-hype breakout.  It’s worth noting that Larnach hadn’t hit very much in Triple-A prior to this season, and even his .234/.363/.431 slash line over 157 PA for Saint Paul in 2023 is only decent, rather than a clear sign that Larnach has nothing more to prove in the minors.

With the Mets already looking ahead to 2024, a hypothetical New York/Minnesota trade package could include a right-handed hitting outfielder like Tommy Pham or Mark Canha, or reliever Brooks Raley.  All would essentially be rental pickups, though Canha and Raley are controllable through club options for the 2024 season.  Raley has pitched well enough that his $6.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) looks like a good bet to be exercise by the Mets, Twins, or whatever team might own his rights after the deadline.

Of course, injuries can always change the equation for any team as the deadline approaches, and the Twins placed Alex Kirilloff on the 10-day injured list today due to a right shoulder strain.  Caleb Thielbar was activated from the 15-day IL in the corresponding move, with the left-hander returning after missing close to two months with an oblique strain.  This came on the heels of a previous IL stint due to another oblique problem, resulting in Thielbar making only one big league appearance since May 6.

Kirilloff has been trying to play through the injury for several days, as manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Kirilloff was hurt diving for a ball.  Kirilloff is “just not able to swing the bat right now because he’s feeling some weakness in his shoulder,” Baldelli said, so the decision was made to put the first baseman on the IL for a full rest.

Wrist problems have plagued Kirilloff in the past, and his recovery from a wrist surgery last year delayed his 2023 debut until May 6.  Finally healthy and given an extended chance to play, Kirilloff looked to be having a bit of a breakout season, with a very solid 124 wRC+ to show from his .270/.357/.442 slash line over 258 plate appearances while mostly playing as Minnesota’s regular first baseman.  Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo are likely to be platooned at first base while Kirilloff is out, and if the Twins get any indication over the next two days that Kirilloff might be facing an extended absence, first base help might be added to the club’s deadline checklist.

Minnesota’s left-handed outfield depth has been a subject of some attention dating back to the offseason. Minnesota didn’t pull the trigger on a deal over the winter, though, instead carrying five lefty-swinging outfielders (plus first baseman/corner outfielder Alex Kirilloff) on the 40-man roster. Nick Gordon has been out for a couple months after breaking his right shin but the rest of the group remains.

Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner stand as the most viable possibilities for a deal. Kepler is in the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s making $8.5MM, while the club holds a $10MM option for next year. The 30-year-old has a league average .230/.295/.439 batting line over 75 contests on the season. He’s been on a tear of late, though, hitting .299/.351/.493 since the start of July.

Larnach and Wallner are less established but more affordable younger players. Larnach is a former first-round pick and top prospect who hasn’t found his stride in parts of three MLB campaigns. He’s a career .223/.315/.379 hitter. Larnach has plus exit velocities and solid grades for his defense at both corner outfield spots. Swing-and-miss has been the big concern, as he’s gone down on strikes in over a third of his plate appearances. The Twins have bounced him on and off the active roster this season. He’s hitting .213/.311/.400 in the majors and .230/.351/.467 in a very hitter-friendly Triple-A setting.

Wallner, 25, only has 37 big league games under his belt. That’s in large part thanks to the Twins’ outfield surplus, as he’s acquitted himself well in that limited look. The Southern Miss product carries a .250/.370/.390 batting line at the MLB level and has mashed at a .291/.403/.524 clip through 67 games in Triple-A this season. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his range in the outfield, although he has elite arm strength.

Minnesota doesn’t have to move anyone in the group, of course. The Twins lead the AL Central by four games. If they did seriously consider dealing any of that trio, it stands to reason they’d want MLB help in another area of the roster.

The rest of the Twins’ outfield options seem unlikely to move. Kirilloff has taken over as the everyday first baseman and is hitting .282/.371/.465 in 66 games. There’s little reason for Minnesota to consider dealing him. They’d probably be hard-pressed to find much interest in Joey Gallo, who is playing the season on an $11MM free agent deal. Gallo got off to a scorching start in the Twin Cities but is hitting .149/.237/.391 while striking out in almost half his plate appearances since the start of June, bringing his overall batting line to .176/.295/.452. Gordon’s injury takes him out of the equation, while the switch-hitting Willi Castro frequently draws into the lineup against left-handed pitching as a utility option.

Interestingly, the outfield isn’t the only area of the roster in which Minnesota has apparently given some thought to dealing from its depth. Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic reports the Twins had given some thought to dealing Kenta Maeda earlier in the season. That would’ve presumably been to make way for Dallas Keuchel in the starting rotation, as the former Cy Young winner is having a strong year in Triple-A after signing a minor league deal.

It doesn’t seem that’s likely at this point. Maeda has been excellent in six starts since returning from a triceps issue. The veteran righty has worked to a 2.48 ERA with a massive 34.4% strikeout rate in 32 2/3 innings. Relinquishing that kind of production while the team tries to hold onto a division title would probably be too risky. Keuchel forewent an opportunity to opt out of his deal last week but can do so again on Tuesday. Ghiroli reports that he’d be guaranteed a prorated $2.05MM base salary if Minnesota calls him up. The Twins could bring him up for a multi-inning role out of the bullpen if they don’t feel there’s room in the starting staff at present.

In the meantime, the veteran lefty continues to pitch well. He tossed six shutout innings in his most recent start for the Saints and is now sporting a 0.69 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 60.5% grounder rate in 26 innings with the Twins’ Triple-A club.

July 21: Keuchel will not trigger his opt-out clause, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link). He’ll remain with St. Paul and will not occupy a spot on the Minnesota 40-man roster for the time being.

July 19: Left-hander Dallas Keuchel signed a minor league deal with the Twins about a month ago and it seems they will have to soon make a decision about whether or not to give him a roster spot. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the southpaw can opt out of that deal on Friday.

Keuchel, 35, was once one of the better pitchers in the league, winning the American League Cy Young award in 2015 by posting a 2.48 earned run average over 232 innings for the Astros. He continued to serve as an effective starter for years after that, even registering a tiny 1.99 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. The two years after that were rough, however, as his ERA shot up to 5.28 in 2022 and then a grisly 9.20 mark last year.

Those struggles last year saw him bounce from the White Sox to the Diamondbacks and the Rangers, as each club tried and failed to capture the previous form of Keuchel. He got some interest as a free agent this winter but ultimately lingered on the open market until last month, when the Twins signed him. At that point, it was noted that Keuchel had been working with Driveline Baseball in order to restore some of his lost velocity and movement.

If the recent results are any indication, the revamp of his arsenal is working. Since joining the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, Keuchel has tossed 20 innings over four starts with a 0.90 ERA. His 19.8% strikeout rate isn’t especially impressive, but the lefty has always been a grounder specialist and is keeping the ball in the dirt at a 55% clip so far this year.

The Twins’ rotation currently consists of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Pablo López, Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray, all of whom are generally pitching well to various degrees this year. Maeda is the only one with an ERA above 4.25, and his 5.50 mark is largely skewed by a miserable 10-run outing just before he landed on the injured list. Since getting healthy and returning, he has a 2.70 ERA in four starts.

That could make the decision somewhat difficult for Minnesota, as they may not have an immediate need for Keuchel but they also might not want him to get away. Given his past track record and his strong results this year, he could surely find another opportunity elsewhere if he were to trigger that opt-out.

9:43am: The Twins have agreed to a minor league deal with left-hander Dallas Keuchel, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The WME client has recently been working out with Driveline Baseball and, as Driveline director of pitching Chris Langin recently noted (Twitter thread), has restored some of the velocity on his heater and movement on his sinker and revamped sweeper. He’ll presumably wind up with the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul, though he might first require a tune-up at a lower-level affiliate.

The 35-year-old Keuchel’s past two seasons have been a nightmare, as the former AL Cy Young winner was shelled for a 6.35 ERA in 222 2/3 innings between the White Sox, D-backs and Rangers. That includes a particularly calamitous 2022 campaign in which he was tagged for 62 earned runs on a whopping 94 hits and 31 walks in just 60 2/3 frames. Keuchel’s fastball averaged a career-worst 87.8 mph in 2022, and his 10.2% walk rate was his highest since a 10.3% mark as a rookie way back in 2012.

That said, Keuchel had strong results back in 2020 (1.99 ERA in 63 1/3 innings) and from 2014-20 was a high-end starting pitcher for the Astros, Braves and White Sox. During that time, the lefty piled up 1126 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball (3.55 FIP, 3.63 SIERA). Keuchel has long posted below-average strikeout rates but, at his best, will offset them with excellent command and one of the top ground-ball rates in the Majors. Opponents have averaged just an 87.4 mph exit velocity against him since Statcast began tracking it in 2015, and even in his recent disastrous seasons Keuchel was only slightly below average in terms of limiting hard contact.

Certainly, it’s beyond optimistic to expect Keuchel to recapture his 2015 Cy Young form. The Twins would likely be thrilled if the lefty were able to even emerge as a viable back-of-the-rotation starter or perhaps a multi-inning reliever. Langin notes that Keuchel has been sitting 89 mph with his fastball and 88.9 mph with his sinker in workouts — down slightly from peak levels but roughly in line with Keuchel’s 2016-19 seasons, when he posted a 3.77 ERA over 102 starts.

Fortunately for the Twins, they can look at Keuchel as a pure depth option rather than someone they’ll realistically need to turn to before long. Minnesota recently optioned fifth starter Louie Varland to Triple-A, but the expectation is that Kenta Maeda will be returning from the injured list in his place. Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober give the Twins a strong top four in their rotation anyhow, and the club is hoping for Chris Paddack to finish off his rehab from Tommy John surgery later this summer as well.

Keuchel will merely add to that stockpile of rotation options. If he looks to be in pre-2021 form in Triple-A, that’ll be a major bonus for the Twins, but if he continues to struggle as he has over the past two seasons, they can move on without feeling they’ve placed a major strain on their rotation depth.