Hudson, 30, is coming off a rough season. He signed a one-year deal with the Rockies with a $1.5MM guarantee but wasn’t able to give the club much in return for that investment. He made 18 starts and threw 89 innings but allowed 6.17 earned runs per nine. He struck out just 12.1% of batters faced, giving out walks at a higher rate of 12.4%. His 52.3% ground ball rate was typically strong for him but it wasn’t enough for him to cling to a job even in the injury-marred Colorado rotation.

In July, Hudson was designated for assignment and sent through waivers unclaimed. He was later added back to the roster in August but quickly wound up on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and finished the season there. He was outrighted off the roster again in October and elected free agency.

Once upon a time, Hudson seemed like a solid rotation option for the Cardinals. Over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he tossed 213 2/3 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 18.4% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 56.9% ground ball rate. But Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2021 season and he hasn’t been able to bounce back since. His 221 innings in the 2022-23 seasons resulted in a 4.64 ERA with his strikeout rate falling to 12.9%. His 52.5% ground ball in that time was still above league average but a drop from his own previous track record.

For the Angels, rotation depth has been an ongoing issue for years. 2024 was no exception, as the club’s starters posted a collective 4.97 ERA, which was better than only the Marlins and Rockies. They subtracted from their group by sending Griffin Canning to Atlanta in the Jorge Soler deal. Patrick Sandoval was also non-tendered after requiring elbow surgery in the summer.

This offseason, they have signed Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks, adding to a group that also includes José Soriano and Tyler Anderson. The roster also features Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Jack Kochanowicz and others but Hudson will give them a bit of non-roster depth and try to get back on track after a few challenging years.

All three players were eligible for arbitration this winter, so these moves effectively act as early non-tenders. Each player has more than three years of service time, meaning each has the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Cave, 32 in December, was acquired from the Phillies in a cash deal coming into the 2024 season. He got into 123 games for the Rockies and stepped to the plate 346 times. Unfortunately, he hit just .251/.290/.396 in that time for a 75 wRC+. He now has a career batting line of .236/.292/.400 and an 80 wRC+ in over 1500 trips to the plate. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of $1.8MM next year but the Rockies will move on instead.

Hudson, 30, spent many years as a groundballer with the Cardinals. He had a 3.14 earned run average through 2021 but his ERA jumped to 4.45 in 2022 and 4.98 in 2023, so the Cards decided to non-tender him.

The Rockies brought him aboard via a modest $1.5MM guarantee but Hudson went on to post a 6.17 ERA this year. There may have been some bad luck in there, as he only stranded 63.5% of runners, but he also made things hard on himself. His 12.4% walk rate was not only above league average but also above his 12.1% strikeout rate. Colorado could have brought him back for a projected $2.3MM salary next year but understandably decided not to.

Lambert, 27, was a second-round pick of the Rockies back in 2015. He was a notable prospect for the club on his way up the ladder but hasn’t been able to cement himself in the big leagues. He debuted in 2019, making 19 starts that year but with a 7.25 ERA. He required Tommy John surgery in July of 2020, keeping out of action for all of that year and most of 2021. Right forearm inflammation limited him to just four minor league appearances in 2022.

He’s been largely healthy for the past two seasons, with the Rockies using him a frequently-optioned swingman. He has thrown 148 2/3 major league innings since the start of 2023, but with a 5.51 ERA. His 8.7% walk rate in that time is fine but his 18.5% strikeout rate is subpar.

He was projected for a $1.5MM salary next year, which is almost nothing in MLB terms, but he has exhausted all of his option years. That would make it harder for the Rockies to keep him on the roster going forward, so they have decided to bump him off today.

Hill, now 24, was selected in 2021 draft. The Rockies grabbed him that year with a pick in the second round, with Hill going 44th overall. That was despite a notable injury history that was already in place. As noted by Baseball America, Hill missed a lot of time during his college years due to elbow problems and eventually required Tommy John surgery in 2021. His stock faded going into the draft but the Rockies took a chance on him.

He was able to get back onto the mound in 2022, making his professional debut with brief stints in Rookie ball and Single-A. Last year, he made 16 High-A starts and logged 43 2/3 innings with mixed results. On the positive side, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced and got grounders on 52.4% of balls in play. His 11.5% walk rate was a tad high but not disastrous, and perhaps understandable for a guy still working back from major surgery. But he allowed 11 home runs in that small sample, ballooning his ERA to 9.48. His 6.63 FIP was far better but still not a good mark.

Here in 2024, the Rockies have moved him to a relief role, with some good results. He started the year at Double-A, logging 38 1/3 innings over 34 appearances. In that time, he had a 3.52 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate.

He was promoted to Triple-A and his results there have yielded another mixed bag. In seven innings over seven appearances in the Pacific Coast League, he has struck out 34.2% of batters faced and kept 52.9% of balls on the ground. But he’s also walked 15.8% of batters faced and allowed eight earned runs for a 10.29 ERA. His .500 batting average on balls in play and 57.7% strand rate didn’t help, but the free passes also clearly played a role.

The Rockies are playing out the string on another lost season and Hill was going to be Rule 5 eligible this winter anyway. They will give him his roster spot now and use some of their remaining games to get him acclimated to the majors and see how his stuff plays at the top level. BA currently lists him as the club’s #26 prospect, noting that his fastball can hit the high 90s with a slider and a changeup in the mix.

As for Hudson, he landed on the 15-day IL August 11 due to right elbow inflammation. The club hasn’t provided any updates on his status since then but it appears they don’t expect him to make a return this year, based on the transfer to the 60-day. He can be retained for 2025 via arbitration but he has a 6.17 ERA on the year and was passed through waivers in July, before being re-selected to the roster. Given his rough year and uncertain health status, the Rockies could non-tender him instead.

Hudson, 29, had his contract selected less than 24 hours ago, and he started for the Rockies on Saturday against the Braves. He lasted only 2 2/3 innings, giving up three hits, four walks, and five earned runs. While he has struggled all season, his particular troubles last night may have had something to do with his injury. The Rockies have not yet provided many details about his status going forward.

Similar to Hudson, Rogers, 30, has already been outrighted by the Rockies once this season. He signed a minor league deal with the club this spring, and Colorado selected him to make his 2024 debut in May. The southpaw gave up seven earned runs over 9 1/3 innings before landing on the IL with a left shoulder rotator cuff strain. He was activated and DFA’d about a month later. However, like Hudson, he chose to accept an outright assignment to Triple-A, and that decision appears to have paid off. He will return to the Rockies bullpen for today’s series finale against the Braves. Rogers has a 6.71 ERA over 14 appearances (11 starts) at Triple-A this season.

Hudson, 29, accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A earlier this season. He signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract with Colorado this past winter, but following a poor performance over his first 17 starts (career-worst 5.84 ERA, 5.61 SIERA, and 12.3% strikeout rate), he was designated for assignment in early July. After he passed through waivers unclaimed, the Rockies sent him outright to the Albuquerque Isotopes.

Through three starts with the Isotopes, Hudson has given up 14 runs (12 earned) in 11 1/3 innings. He has 10 strikeouts, four walks, and a .360 batting average against. His most recent outing against the Las Vegas Aviators was especially brutal; he lasted just 2 2/3 innings, giving up seven runs (five earned) on seven hits while striking out only two. Nevertheless, the Rockies have selected his contract, and he will start tonight’s contest against the Braves at Coors Field (per Patrick Lyons of Just Baseball).

Lyons reported yesterday that Hudson would be starting today in place of Cal Quantrill, who is dealing with some “general forearm soreness.” The team has pushed back his next outing indefinitely (per Lyons). Presuming Quantrill is ready to get back on the mound within a few days, Hudson will, most likely, remain in the rotation until Ryan Feltner returns from the 15-day IL. Feltner landed on the injured list on Thursday with a right shoulder strain, but his recent MRI came back clean, and he could return as soon as his minimum 15 days on the IL are up (per Lyons). That should mean at least two more starts for Hudson after tonight. While he has struggled this season, Hudson is only two years removed from a solid 2022 campaign with the Cardinals, when he pitched to a 4.45 ERA and 5.11 SIERA over 139 2/3 innings. Those aren’t excellent numbers by any means, but all the Rockies need right now is an innings eater.

Shreve, 34, has pitched in the majors every year since 2014, appearing for the Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Mets, Pirates, Tigers, Reds, and, most recently, the Rockies. He has a 3.96 ERA and 3.87 SIERA across 368 career appearances, mostly as a lower-leverage reliever. Despite his serviceable performance in 2023 (4.63 ERA, 3.77 SIERA in 50 games), the veteran southpaw could only land a minor league contract from the Rangers this winter. Texas released him in May, re-signed him, and then released him again in June. Following that, he signed a minor deal with the Yankees, only to be released again in August. After inking a minor league pact with the Rockies earlier this month, Shreve finally made it back to the majors. He made one brief appearance for Colorado on Wednesday, tossing a scoreless inning against the Mets. He will now be placed on waivers, and if he goes unclaimed, he could opt to return to free agency and seek an opportunity with his fourth organization of the season.

Hudson signed a one-year free agent deal with Colorado after being non-tendered by the Cardinals. Colorado gave him 17 turns through the rotation, but Hudson didn’t manage particularly strong results. He posted a 5.84 earned run average with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. The sinkerballer induced ground-balls at a solid 52.4% clip, but the lack of missed bats didn’t play well at Coors Field.

A former supplemental first-round pick, Hudson had some productive years early in his career with St. Louis. His velocity has trended down over the past few seasons. His sinker is averaging a career-low 90.3 MPH this year. That squeezed Hudson off the roster and likely back to the minors. The Rox could field trade offers on Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber, potentially opening a rotation spot or two after the deadline.

Hudson, 30 in September, was non-tendered by the Cardinals back in November but signed with the Rockies on a one-year deal in early January. A first-round pick by St. Louis back in 2016, he made his big league debut with the club in 2018 and looked to be an impressive young arm and enjoyed notable success early in his career with a 3.17 ERA that was 31% better than league average in 241 innings of work during his first three years in the majors. Despite that success, there were some red flags evident in Hudson’s profile has he struck out just 18.1% of batters faced and walked 11.6%, leaving him with a lackluster 4.74 FIP. Hudson’s ability to generate grounders was his most valuable tool, and his 57.3% groundball rate during that period led all qualified major league hurlers.

Tommy John surgery wiped out almost all of Hudson’s 2021 campaign, and upon his return Hudson was unable to garner the same impressive results he had posted earlier in his career. In 221 innings of work with the Cardinals during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Hudson struggled to a below-average 4.64 ERA with a nearly matching 4.60 FIP. He walked 10% of batters while striking out a meager 12.9% of his opponents, and with the results now matching the peripherals St. Louis opted to part ways with the righty rather than tender him a contract this year.

That led him to Colorado, and Hudson ultimately made 17 starts for the Rockies this year, pitching 86 1/3 innings. The results of those outings were nothing short of brutal. The right-hander’s ERA ballooned to 5.84 this year as he walked (11.8%) nearly as many batters has he struck out (12.3%) in 86 1/3 innings of work. While Hudson’s 52.4% grounder rate this year was still elite, that figure is a far cry from the aforementioned 57.3% rate that he posted prior to his surgery. Given the ghastly results and his overall diminished profile, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Rockies have decided to pull the plug on Hudson’s tenure with the club. They’ll now have one week to either attempt to work out a trade for Hudson’s services or pass him through waivers, although the righty has enough service time that he would have the opportunity to reject an outright assignment should he clear waivers.

This setback likely removes any hope that Senga would return to the Mets rotation before the end of April, but an early May return is still on the table. Presuming he needs about six weeks to stretch out his arm, the righty could be back on the mound by the first week of May if he starts throwing again next weekend.

Needless to say, the Mets are hoping their ace misses as little time as possible. Senga made 29 starts last season, finishing second among qualified NL starters with a 2.98 ERA. Jose Quintana, who made just 13 starts in 2023, gets the Opening Day nod in his place, while Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, and Tylor Megill are likely to round out the rotation.

More pitching updates from the National League…

• The Nationals have shut down Jose A. Ferrer as the southpaw nurses a teres major strain (per Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports). He will not pitch for at least three weeks. Ferrer, 24, made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 39 games out of the bullpen for Washington. Although his 5.03 ERA and 17.6% strikeout rate were unimpressive, he induced plenty of weak contact on the ground. Only a handful of NL relievers had a higher groundball rate or a lower barrel rate, per Baseball Savant. Ferrer was a strong candidate to make the Nationals’ Opening Day roster, and his injury leaves Robert Garcia as the only healthy left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster.
• According to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, right-handed pitchers Dakota Hudson and Peter Lambert are the two favorites for the fifth and final spot in the Rockies starting rotation. Hudson, who spent the first six years of his career with the Cardinals, has more major league experience and a recent track record of moderate success. He has made 38 starts over the past two years with a 4.78 ERA. Lambert, who made his debut with Colorado in 2019, has started just 32 games in his career, pitching to a dismal 6.38 ERA. Even accounting for the different run environments at Busch Stadium and Coors Field, that’s a stark difference. That said, Hudson is more of a proven quantity at this point in his career, while Lambert could still have some of the upside that made him a fringe top-100 prospect before his rookie season. Hudson seems like the leading contender, but there’s a reason Lambert remains in the conversation.

2:24pm: The Rockies are planning to announce one-year deals with right-hander Dakota Hudson and catcher Jacob Stallings, per a report from Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The Rockies subsequently announced the moves, announcing two corresponding moves as well. Catcher Brian Serven was claimed off waivers by the Cubs while infielder Alan Trejo was outrighted to Triple-A.

A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. Early in his career, the groundballer significantly outdid his peripheral stats to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals. From his big league debut until the end of the shortened 2020 campaign, Hudson impressed with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work despite a concerning 4.74 FIP. That elevated FIP was thanks primarily to a subpar 18.1% strikeout rate against an elevated 11.6% walk rate. Only Andrew Cashner, Antonio Senzatela, and Clayton Richard posted worse K-BB ratios than Hudson during that time among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work. With that being said, Hudson’s whopping 57.3% grounder rate actually led all pitchers over the same period.

Hudson lost nearly the whole 2021 season to Tommy John surgery and his performance began to take a turn for the worse the following season. In 139 2/3 innings of work across 27 appearances (26 starts) that year, Hudson saw his strikeout rate plummet to just 13.1% while his walk rate stayed relatively stagnant at 10.2%. That extreme lack of swing and miss left Hudson with a career-worst 4.45 ERA despite a still-strong 53% groundball rate and just 7.2% of the fly balls he did give up leaving the park for home runs.

Those red flags in Hudson’s profile led to an even more difficult 2023 season, where the right-hander spent much of the season in the minor leagues and struggled to a 4.98 ERA with a 5.06 FIP in 81 1/3 innings of work. When looking exclusively at the time Hudson spent in the Cardinals rotation following the departures of Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline, Hudson’s numbers are even more concerning as he posted a 5.23 ERA and 5.45 FIP in 62 innings across those 11 starts. Hudson’s peripheral numbers also declined significantly as his groundball rate dipped to 51.5%, his strikeout rate fell to 12.7%, and his fastball velocity cratered to 91.3 mph. Each of those figures was the worst of his career and a far cry from the 57.3% grounder rate, 18.1% strikeout rate, and 93.8 mph fastball velocity Hudson showed in the first three seasons of his career.

Given Hudson’s longtime struggles and worsening peripherals, it wasn’t much of a surprise when St. Louis opted to non-tender the right-hander back in November rather than retain him for the 2024 campaign. While Hudson’s salary in Colorado isn’t yet known, it’s unlikely to be higher than Hudson’s arbitration projection (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) of $3.7MM. Given that, the signing is a solid, low-cost gamble by the Rockies. Groundballers like Hudson are less subject to the difficulties of pitching at Coors Field than pitchers that allow more contact in the air, as highlighted by the previous successes of arms like German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela in the ballpark.

With that being said, both of those aforementioned hurlers figure to open the season on the injured list while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. That leaves the Rockies without their rotation’s backbone, and Hudson figures to join the club’s Opening Day rotation alongside Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber as well as fellow offseason acquisition Cal Quantrill. Even if Hudson can’t recapture his previous form in Colorado, he could eat innings for the club until Marquez and Freeland are ready to return. And if Hudson manages to find success with the Rockies, the club can control the 29-year-old through arbitration in 2025.

Stallings, 34 last month, was a non-tendered back in November by the Marlins. A seventh-round pick in the 2012 draft by the Pirates, Stallings made his big league debut in 2016 and received brief cups of coffee in the majors over three seasons before earning a regular role as the club’s back-up catcher in 2019. He made the most of the opportunity, combining strong defense behind the plate with a respectable .262/.325/.382 (82 wRC+) slash line in 210 plate appearances. That strong full-season debut earned Stallings a look as the club’s primary catcher over the next two seasons, and he did well for himself in the role with a .246/.333/.371 (92 wRC+) line in 154 games behind the plate. Stallings also saw his already solid defense behind the plate improve to the point of winning a Gold Glove at the position in 2021.

During the 2021-22 offseason, the Pirates decided to ship Stallings to Miami in exchange for a package of three players. That decision proved to be a wise one as Stallings saw his performance quickly crater upon joining the Marlins. During his two seasons with the club, he’s slashed just .210/.287/.290 (62 wRC+) in 660 trips to the plate while his formerly Gold Glove caliber defense has crumbled to more or less league average. Statcast estimates Stallings to have been worth +2 framing runs and +5 blocking runs in 2021; by contrast, the veteran was worth -5 framing runs and just +2 blocking runs this past season. That massive downturn in performance on both sides of the ball led the Marlins to non-tender Stallings prior to his final trip through arbitration, where he projected to earn $3.6MM.

Like Hudson, the details of Stallings’s arrangement with the Rockies are not yet clear, though his guarantee is unlikely to surpass that aforementioned $3.6MM figure. In Colorado, Stallings figures to be reunited with Elias Diaz after the two shared time behind the plate in Pittsburgh back in 2019. After earning his first career All Star appearance in 2023, Diaz figures to remain the club’s primary catcher. With that said, Stallings represents a considerable upgrade over the combination of Serven and Austin Wynns the Rockies used to back up Diaz last year. With a stronger backup option to Diaz, the club can afford to take some of the load off of Diaz’s shoulders after a season where he caught a whopping 126 games.

Speaking of Serven, the 28-year-old backstop is headed to Chicago after being squeezed off the Rockies’ 40-man roster by the addition of Stallings. A fifth-round pick by the Rockies back in 2016, Serven made his big league debut in 2022 but has struggled to hit at the big league level with a career .195/.248/.314 slash line in 228 major league plate appearances. Serven appears unlikely to supplant Yan Gomes or Miguel Amaya as part of the Cubs’ primary catching tandem, but he has options remaining and could provide depth for the club at the Triple-A level alongside the likes of Jorge Alfaro and Joe Hudson, both of whom the Cubs brought in on minor league deals earlier this offseason.

As for Trejo, the 27-year-old made his big league debut with the Rockies back in 2021 and has held a utility role with the club ever since, slashing .243/.292/.367 in 145 career big league games while playing second and third base as well as shortstop. Trejo figures to head to Triple-A to open the season and act as non-roster infield depth for the Rockies going forward.

While the best pieces among last offseason’s crop of non-tenders were both position players, recent history has offered a handful of arms who went on to provide significant value to teams after being non-tendered earlier in their career, with Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker standing as two of the more recent examples. The pair eventually went on to sign multi-year pacts worth $110MM and $72MM, respectively, though it’s anyone’s guess if any of members of this year’s group of non-tendered hurlers will manage to reach those same heights.

This year’s crop of arms won’t benefit from an otherwise weak free agent class the way this year’s hitters will, as the class of free agent starters is deep in potential options, ranging from top-of-the-line aces like Yoshinobu Yamamoto to interesting bounceback candidates like Jack Flaherty and Frankie Montas. Even so, clubs can never have enough starting pitching depth, and each of these arms could at least in theory provide a club with valuable innings in the future if given the chance to do so. Without further ado, let’s take a look at five starters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Kolby Allard (26)

Not too long ago, Allard was among the game’s most highly-touted prospects. After being selected fourteenth overall by the Braves in the 2015 draft, Allard was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport by the time he reached Double-A in 2017. After cruising through that campaign with a 3.18 ERA across 150 innings of work at just 19 years old, Allard got his first taste of big league action with Atlanta in 2018, though his stint in the majors lasted just eight innings. After being traded to the Rangers in 2019, Allard spent parts of three seasons swinging in and out of the Rangers rotation, with a 5.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 203 2/3 innings of work.

A failed stint in the bullpen in 2022 led the Rangers to deal Allard back to the Braves in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Allard missed nearly the entire 2023 campaign with oblique and shoulder issues, leading the Braves to non-tender the lefty. While Allard has struggled to establish himself at the big league level, he’ll pitch next season at just 26 years old and advanced metrics such as xFIP (4.57) and SIERA (4.31) have seen his performance as roughly league average since the start of the 2021 campaign, lending credence to the hope that the lefty could still prove to be a solid back-end starter one day.

Yonny Chirinos (30)

Chirinos began his big league career back in 2018 as a member of the Rays, and was a quality arm for the club in a variety of roles from 2018-20. In those three seasons, the right-hander posted a 3.65 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP while appearing in 47 games (28 starts) and pitching a total of 234 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, Chirinos underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2020 and didn’t return to the mound until late in the 2022 campaign.

Chirinos struggled in his first full season back from surgery in 2023. Though he posted a decent 4.02 ERA in 62 2/3 innings of work as a swingman for the Rays, his peripherals (including a 5.49 FIP and an 11.8% strikeout rate) indicated his performance had slipped considerably. That led Tampa to part ways with Chirinos, who was ultimately claimed off waivers by the Braves. Chirinos’s results took a turn for the worse in Atlanta, as he was blown up for a 9.27 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work before being placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. While Chirinos struggled through his first full season back from Tommy John this year, it’s easy to see the right-hander becoming a valuable, versatile depth piece for a contending club again in 2024 if he manages to get healthy.

Dakota Hudson (29)

A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. The groundballer significantly outperformed his peripheral stats early in his career to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals, with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work 2018-20 despite a 4.74 FIP. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery cost Hudson almost all of the 2021 season, and upon returning to the Cardinals’ rotation in 2022 his results diminished significantly. In 221 frames since the start of the 2022 campaign, Hudson has posted a 4.64 ERA (88 ERA+) and nearly matching 4.60 FIP as his strikeout rate has dipped to just 13% against a 10% walk rate. That led the Cardinals to non-tender Hudson even in spite of their extreme need for rotation depth headed into 2024.

Brutal as the past two seasons have been for Hudson, it’s worth noting that he still generates grounders at a elite clip; among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work over the past two years, Hudson’s 52.5% groundball rate ranks ninth, sandwiched between Sandy Alcantara and Ranger Suarez. Though the Cardinals were unable to trade Hudson before last week’s non-tender deadline, it’s certainly feasible that a team in need of starting depth could look to take a flier on Hudson’s groundball abilities in hopes they can return him to the form he flashed earlier in his career.

Spencer Turnbull (31)

After being drafted by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, Turnbull eventually reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee in 2018 before receiving a regular spot in the club’s starting rotation during the 2019 campaign. That rookie campaign saw Turnbull post a 4.61 ERA that was slightly better than league average (103 ERA+) in 148 1/3 innings of work, though his 3.99 FIP hinted at another gear to his performance. After taking a small step forward during the shortened 2020 season (3.97 ERA, 3.49 FIP in 11 starts), Turnbull appeared to put it all together in the 2021 campaign with a 2.88 ERA and 2.97 FIP before his season was cut short after just nine starts by Tommy John surgery.

Turnbull returned in early 2023 and appeared poised to step back into the club’s rotation, but a mix of injuries, under-performance, and a dispute between Turnbull and Detroit brass over service time led to the sides parting ways this offseason with Turnbull having posted a 7.26 ERA over seven starts at the big league level. Despite those brutal numbers, Turnbull is nonetheless among the more interesting bounceback candidates on the open market this offseason given his recent health struggles and the incredible upside he flashed during the 2021 campaign.

Brandon Woodruff (31)

This list wouldn’t be complete without a mention of Woodruff, who has emerged as one of the game’s best starters in recent years. Since his first season as a regular member of the Brewers’ rotation in 2019, Woodruff has dominated to the tune of a 2.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 103 starts while collecting two All Star appearances and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting back in 2021. Woodruff was dominant as ever in 2023, with a 2.28 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, he was dogged by injuries throughout the season and limited to just eleven starts before undergoing shoulder surgery last month.

Unlike the other arms on this list, there are zero questions about Woodruff’s ability, as he’s a consensus front-of-the-rotation arm in terms of pure talent. Despite that, the Brewers made the difficult decision to non-tender him last week due to questions surrounding his availability for the 2024 campaign. It’s unclear if Woodruff will be able to return to the mound at all in 2024 following his surgery, though the right-hander expressed optimism earlier this offseason that he would be able to pitch again sometime next summer. Still, that uncertainty led the Brewers to part ways with the right-hander rather than tender him a contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected to be worth $11.6MM, a hefty sum for a small-market club to commit to a pitcher who might not be available next season. Though Woodruff’s timetable for return is uncertain, he has the potential to be among the most impactful pitchers in the entire free agent class based on his track record over the past several seasons. That combination of risk and tantalizing upside leave Woodruff as one of the most interesting free agents not only on this list but in the offseason’s entire class.

All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency without being placed on waivers. They’ll be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 teams. It’s not uncommon to see non-tendered players almost immediately return to their previous organization on a minor league deal.

The transactions:

Latest Moves

• The Giants non-tendered pitchers Thomas Szapucki, José Cruz and Cole Waites, reports Maria Guardado of MLB.com (X link). None of that trio had been eligible for arbitration.
• No team had a higher percentage of non-tenders than the Braves, who cut seven players loose. As reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on X), they’re moving on from pitchers Yonny Chirinos, Kolby Allard, Penn Murfee, Angel Perdomo and Michael Tonkin, catcher Chadwick Tromp and infielder Luke Williams. Murfee and Perdomo were recently claimed off waivers.
• San Diego’s non-tenders are covered here.

Earlier

• The Reds have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Reiver Sanmartin. Cincinnati also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of Nick Senzel.
• In addition to Rowdy Tellez and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have non-tendered right-hander J.C. Mejía. He failed a PED test in September, the second such result of his career, and was suspended for 162 games.
• Former Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. He played in only 16 games after being acquired from the Mariners last offseason.
• The Cubs non-tendered relievers Ethan Roberts, Brandon Hughes and Codi Heuer. All three are recovering from surgeries.
• Right-hander Tommy Doyle was non-tendered by the Rockies. Colorado designated him for assignment when acquiring Cal Quantrill this morning.
• The Cardinals have non-tendered catcher Andrew Knizner, first baseman Juan Yepez and starting pitchers Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson. St. Louis reportedly tried to deal Hudson this afternoon but evidently did not find a taker.
• The Mets have non-tendered relievers Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod and Trevor Gott. New York also cut loose infielder Luis Guillorme and confirmed the reported non-tender of Dan Vogelbach.
• Left-hander Josh Fleming was non-tendered by the Phillies, the team announced. Philadelphia just snagged the southpaw off waivers from the Rays a few weeks ago.
• The Marlins have non-tendered catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Garrett Hampson, per a club announcement. Stallings spent two seasons as the primary catcher after being acquired from the Pirates at the 2021-22 offseason. Hampson signed a minor league deal with the Fish last season.
• The Pirates non-tendered Osvaldo Bido and Hunter Stratton, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Neither had yet been eligible for arbitration. Both right-handers made their big league debuts in 2023; Mackey suggests the Bucs will try to bring them back on minor league pacts.
• The Nationals announced they’ve non-tendered first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott. Both players were designated for assignment earlier in the week, making this an inevitability.

4:29pm: The Cardinals are shopping right-hander Dakota Hudson “pretty hard” this afternoon ahead of today’s non-tender deadline, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand also suggests that St. Louis’s aggressiveness on Hudson could indicate the club views him as a non-tender candidate.

Hudson, 29, is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for $3.7MM this offseason in his penultimate trip through arbitration. The right-hander made his MLB debut back in 2018 and managed to get quality mid-rotation results through the first three seasons of his career, with a 3.17 ERA (131 ERA+) in 217 innings of work from 2018-20. That success came in spite of some shaky peripheral numbers that undercut the otherwise strong performance; Hudson struck out just 18.1% of batters faced while walking 11.6% during those years, leaving him with an unsightly 4.74 FIP in spite of an excellent 57.3% groundball rate.

Things took a turn for the worse for Hudson late in the 2020 campaign, however, when he was sidelined by Tommy John surgery. The injury would limit him to just 8 2/3 innings of work in 2021. While he returned as a regular member of the Cardinals rotation in 2022, his results had fallen back to Earth as he posted a mediocre 4.45 ERA (88 ERA+) in 139 2/3 innings of work, with a 10.1% walk rate that nearly matched his 13.1% strikeout rate. Only Zack Greinke struck out a lower percentage of batters among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work that year, while Hudson’s K-BB of just 2.9% was dead last.

While the Cardinals tendered Hudson a contract for the 2023 campaign, he was largely relegated to a depth option in the minor leagues despite the club struggling to field a viable rotation throughout much of the year. While he missed a month early in the season due to a neck issue, 11 of his 23 total starts in 2023 were made for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Memphis, with whom he struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 48 innings of work. His 4.98 ERA in 81 1/3 innings of work at the big league level, while an improvement, was still 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+. It’s worth noting that Hudson flashed a more serviceable form when pitching out of the bullpen in the majors this year, with a walk rate below 10% and a 3.86 ERA across 16 1/3 innings of work in six multi-inning relief outings.

Though Hudson has considerable success in his past as a big league starter and showed flashes of quality out of the bullpen this year, it’s not clear whether a team would be interested in parting with much of value for the opportunity to tender him a contract this winter. After all, the Cardinals themselves are among the teams most hungry for starting pitching options in the league at the moment. That being said, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a pitching-needy club work out a trade for Hudson, as the Rockies did for righty Cal Quantrill earlier today. If Hudson finds himself non-tendered by the Cardinals this evening, he could draw interest as a low-cost depth option on a market with plenty of demand for pitching.

With three members of their anticipated starting five either already or soon to be out the door, St. Louis is gearing up to add multiple replacements. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said yesterday the club anticipated bringing in three starting pitchers next winter (relayed by John Denton of MLB.com).

It’s not the first time Mozeliak has expressed that goal. The baseball ops leader indicated a desire for a trio of starters last month. At the time, he left open the possibility of accomplishing some of that at the trade deadline.

The Cards indeed followed through on their goal of adding upper minors pitching. Lefty Drew Rom, who has spent the entire season in Triple-A, came back from Baltimore in the Flaherty deal. Double-A righty Tekoah Roby was arguably the most talented prospect the Cards received in the swap that sent Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Texas. Righties Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse — each of whom was acquired from the Blue Jays for Jordan Hicks — were assigned to Triple-A.

Since none of those hurlers have yet made their MLB debuts, it seems the Cards aren’t penciling any of them into next year’s starting five. Mozeliak conceded the front office overestimated their rotation depth coming into this season and it has clearly since been a priority to bolster the upper levels of the minors.

The only pitcher who looks assured of an Opening Day rotation job is Miles Mikolas. The right-hander is having another solid season, pitching to a 4.27 ERA over 26 starts. He’s not overpowering, but he’s an elite strike-thrower and has been a source of mid-rotation innings for five seasons in St. Louis.

Steven Matz looked to have turned a corner after a brief bullpen demotion. Since returning to the rotation, the southpaw worked to a 1.86 ERA while fanning over a quarter of opponents with an excellent 4.6% walk rate over seven starts. It had been Matz’s best stretch as a Cardinal — until he was diagnosed with a lat strain that could end his season. The recent strong run probably gives Matz an inside track on a rotation spot next spring, though it’s a small enough sample his hold on a job could be tenuous.

Since the deadline, St. Louis has given rotation looks to Matthew Liberatore and Dakota Hudson. Liberatore, a former top prospect, had a strong season in Triple-A but hasn’t carried it over against big league hitters. Over 45 2/3 MLB frames this year, he carries a 5.72 ERA with a well below-average 14.4% strikeout rate. Still just 23 with another minor league option remaining, Liberatore isn’t in danger of losing his roster spot. He’ll get another eight or nine starts down the stretch but hasn’t solidified his hold on a ’24 rotation job.

Hudson isn’t a lock to be on next year’s roster. The sinkerballer is playing this season on a $2.65MM arbitration salary. He’d be due a modest raise on that amount if St. Louis tenders him a contract. Hudson has a 4.31 ERA in 31 1/3 MLB innings, starting three of nine appearances. He worked out of the rotation with Triple-A Memphis, posting a 6.00 ERA with a modest 17.3% strikeout percentage.

Matz’s injury cleared a rotation job for former first-round selection Zack Thompson. The 25-year-old lefty has worked almost exclusively in relief at the big league level. His numbers in that capacity — a 2.59 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate, 51.3% grounder percentage through 59 2/3 career innings — are impressive. Yet Thompson struggled mightily when the Cards optioned him to work out of the Triple-A rotation. Over 34 1/3 frames with Memphis, he was tagged for an 8.65 ERA while struggling to find the strike zone.

Between Liberatore, Thompson and a few upper minors arms — Rom and Connor Thomas could have the upper hand, since they’re already on the 40-man roster — St. Louis has a number of controllable pitchers they can evaluate over the next seven weeks. It’s hard to envision anyone in that group staking a firm claim to a season-opening rotation spot, though they can at least put themselves in line for depth work that’ll inevitably arise throughout the course of the year.

Once the offseason arrives, Mozeliak and his staff will set about identifying external targets. The upcoming free agent class is pitching-heavy. Beyond Shohei Ohtani, some names on the market include Blake Snell, NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Julio Urías, Lucas Giolito, likely Eduardo Rodriguez and Seth Lugo (who each seem set to decline player options on their deals), and Michael Lorenzen. Veterans like Marcus Stroman (who also has a player option), James Paxton and Kenta Maeda could be limited to shorter-term contracts based on their age/injury histories but are pitching well this season.

St. Louis has never topped $80MM on a free agent deal for a pitcher. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cards set a new high-water mark in that regard next winter. Roster Resource calculates their 2024 payroll commitments around $112MM, well below this year’s Opening Day figure that landed in the $177MM range. Arbitration raises for Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Ryan Helsley and Dylan Carlson would add another $15-20MM to that projected ledger, but that leaves a fair bit of flexibility for attacking free agency.

That’s before considering the possibility of trades to potentially clear some payroll room while bringing back rotation help. Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos and Carlson were all floated in rumors this summer. St. Louis ended up holding virtually everyone who was controllable beyond this season but could certainly reopen trade talks on those players over the winter. The outfield surplus that fueled speculation about a Carlson deal still hasn’t been resolved. He seems likely to be a popular subject of trade attention yet again.

Wainwright, 41, has had a disastrous start to the final season of an otherwise exceptional career. Through his first 11 starts, he’s been clobbered for a 7.66 ERA in 51 1/3 frames, with a career-worst 11% strikeout rate, a career-low 86.3 mph average fastball velocity, a career-high 1.74 HR/9 mark and a 7.5% walk rate that registers as his highest level since 2019.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Wainwright emphasized to reporters that he believes he’ll pitch again this season and that he has more left in the tank (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). However, after declaring his plan to return this season, Wainwright also candidly acknowledged that he simply isn’t healthy enough to pitch up to expectations right now.

“I’ve come back from much worse, much worse — but it is impacting my stuff,” Wainwright told the Cardinals beat (via Goold). “…There’s no denying it. Can’t hide it. I can talk myself into anything. I’ve done that a lot. I’ve made a career out of it. Right now, it’s not fair for me to put the team in that spot.”

Knizner, 28, was down for a spell after the unfortunately placed foul-tip last night but initially remained in the game. He eventually was pulled from the contest and transported to a local emergency room for further evaluation, He was eventually released last night, per Goold, and the team will likely provide an update with additional details on his status later today.

In 35 games and 115 plate appearances this year, Knizner has served as the primary backup to Willson Contreras. He’s shown some pop, already swatting a career-high five homers while turning in a career-best .191 ISO (slugging minus batting average). However, Knizner is hitting .227/.254/.418 on the whole, and he’s seen both his walk and strikeout rates (3.5% and 28.7%, respectively), careen in the wrong direction this year.

Herrera, 23, has more than earned a look in the big leagues, slashing .308/.432/.557 in 227 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. A well-regarded catching prospect, he was long expected to be Yadier Molina’s heir in St. Louis before the Cards bucked expectations and signed Contreras to a five-year contract this past offseason.

Hudson, 28, lost his rotation spot late last year and hasn’t won it back in 2023 despite considerable problems on the Cardinals’ starting staff. The sinker specialist has started 11 games in Memphis but is sitting on a 6.00 ERA through just 48 innings. His ground-ball rate is a strong 53.7%, and his 7.5% walk rate is also better than average, but Hudson’s 17.3% strikeout rate is below average. A .416 average on balls in play points to some rotten luck, but such issues are only magnified when a pitcher can’t miss bats at even an average level.

As Gelb points out, a transfer to the 60-day IL can be backdated. Even if Harper is eventually moved there at some point during the season, he will still be eligible to be activated 60 days from Opening Day, which will be late May. It’s possible that’s how this ultimately plays out, but it seems as though the Phils think there’s at least some chance Harper can come back ahead of schedule. Whether that’s a realistic path or just wishful thinking remains to be seen.

Some other notes from the Senior Circuit…

• The Cardinals announced today that right-hander Dakota Hudson and left-hander Matthew Liberatore have each been optioned to Triple-A. Both players have been part of the club’s rotation plans in past years, but they’re currently on the outside of the starting group, with the five spots going to Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. Hudson made 32 starts for the club in 2019 with a 3.35 ERA but hasn’t been the same since. Injuries limited him to just eight starts in 2020 and then just two appearances in 2021. Last year, he was healthy enough to make 26 starts but posted a 4.45 ERA with a 13.1% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. Liberatore was once a top 100 prospect but struggled last year, posting a 5.97 ERA in the majors and 5.17 mark in Triple-A. Both players will head to the minors to work on their performance, which could have long-term ramifications for the club. Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery are all impending free agents. That leaves Matz as the only pitcher currently penciled into the 2024 rotation.
• Pirates right-hander Robert Stephenson will likely begin the season on the injured list. “We’re just running out of time,” manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The righty was slowed by some arm discomfort early in camp, which was initially described as a precautionary setback. However, it seems he hasn’t been able to return to health as fast as hoped. The 30-year-old has had an up-and-down career, but is coming off a strong finish to his 2022. He had a 6.04 ERA last year when the Rockies put him on waivers, but then posted a 3.38 ERA with the Pirates after they claimed him. His strikeout rate also almost doubled, going from 18.8% with Colorado to 36% with Pittsburgh. The Bucs believed in him enough to tender him a contract and pay him a $1.75MM salary to avoid arbitration, his final year before reaching free agency.