Nov. 6: The managerial market provided a stunning twist today, with Craig Counsell jumping from the Brewers to the Cubs. He will replace David Ross, who has been relieved of his duties, per an announcement from the Cubs. Counsell will become the highest-paid manager in the league, earning $40MM over the next five years, $8MM per year. The Brewers reportedly made him an offer to stay in Milwaukee but topped out at $5.5MM per year.

“Today we made the difficult decision to dismiss David Ross as our Major League Manager,” a statement from president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reads. “On behalf of the Cubs organization, we express our deep gratitude for David’s contributions to our club, both on and off the field. First as a player and then as a manger, David continually showcased his ability to lead. David’s legacy will be felt in Chicago for generations and his impact to our organization will stack up with the legends that came before him. Going forward, our Major League team will be managed by Craig Counsell. We look forward to welcoming Craig at Wrigley Field early next week.”

Counsell took over as manager of the Brewers for the 2015 season. Since then, the club has had a run of strong results, making the playoffs in five of the past six years despite generally having low payrolls. 2023 was the final year of his contract and he was a popular target around the league. He interviewed with the Guardians and Mets and garnered interest from the Astros, though a return to the Brewers seemed to still be possible. But now in a stunning twist, he’s jumping from the Brewers to their divisional rivals, who weren’t even known to be looking for a new skipper.

The fit with the Mets was a sensible assumption to make, even before Counsell interviewed there. David Stearns, who worked with Counsell for many years in Milwaukee, was hired by the Mets a couple of months ago to be president of baseball operations. It was also reported last week that Counsell was looking to push manager salaries forward, which only made the fit with the Mets more logical, given the spendthrift stylings of owner Steve Cohen.

Joe Torre previously had the managerial salary record, earning $8MM with the Yankees. But his last season in the dugout was 2007 and salaries for skippers have evidently levelled off since then. Recent reporting indicated that Terry Francona of the Guardians was the highest-paid manager in 2023, with a reported salary of $4.5MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote last month about the growing concern around the game that managerial and coaching salaries at the big league level were falling behind those of many colleges. Counsell seems to have set a mission to reverse that trend and seems to have done so, which could potentially have effects in the game for years to come.

But the fact that the Cubs have swooped in to be the one to help him accomplish that goal is a development that came out of nowhere. Ross has been the manager for the Cubs since 2020 and was extended prior to 2022, with a contract that went through 2024 and had a club option for 2025. The Cubs have been rebuilding for much of that time but made a more earnest shot at contending in 2023. They gave significant contracts to players like Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger and others last winter and then added Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. Unfortunately, the club fell just short, finishing 83-79 and just a single game back of a Wild Card spot.

It seems the club will respond to that finish with a managerial shift, though it’s not necessarily a knock on Ross. Heyman reports that today’s development was more about Counsell’s availability than it was about Ross. As the season was winding down, both Hoyer and chairman Tom Ricketts voiced support for Ross but they have now pivoted in a big way, putting down significant cash to do so.

This move will have ripple effects on the game of musical chairs that has been playing out in terms of big league managerial positions. Counsell will be charged with leading the Cubs further away from their recent rebuild while the Brewers will now have to look for a new bench boss for the first time in almost a decade. The Astros, Padres and Angels have current vacancies as well.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Counsell would be leaving the Brewers and that he would join the Cubs. Rosenthal also reported that Counsell would make more than $40MM over five years, though subsequent reports pegged his contract at exactly $40MM. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel provided the details on the offer from the Brewers.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Counsell departing Milwaukee wasn’t totally unforeseen. He was on an expiring contract in 2023 and extension talks didn’t come to fruition. But with David Stearns moving on from the Brewers to become president of baseball operations for the Mets and then firing manager Buck Showalter, many assumed Counsell would follow him to Queens. But Counsell joining the division-rival Cubs was not foreseen or known to be on the table.

Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio spoke on the matter yesterday, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and it seems he was surprised as well. “When he first told me, I said, ‘Are you messing with me?’” Attanasio added that “It is what it is” and that the club intends to continue putting their best foot forward without Counsell. “We have a really good thing. I give Craig credit for helping to build that, and for adding all these coaches, all of whom have stayed. So we’re going to look for a manager who can continue having a terrific clubhouse culture and that can help us keep winning and hopefully get over the hump in the playoffs.”

As for the Mets, despite the generally spendthrift behavior of Steve Cohen in recent years, they apparently never got close to the $40MM over five years that Counsell secured from the Cubs. Per Andy Martino of SNY, there was a sense that his interest in coming to the Mets wasn’t actually that high and he was merely using them to drive up the bidding. That would track with his reported interest in resetting the market for managerial salaries. Perhaps he wasn’t especially willing to do that in Queens since he grew up in the Midwest and Chicago is a better fit for him, or perhaps the Mets were content to hire a manager with lesser demands, but the end result is that the Mets landed first-time manager Carlos Mendoza instead.

As for the Brewers’ immediate concerns in relation to this, though it may sting that Counsell joined a division rival instead of the Mets, the focus now will be on filling the void. It seems they weren’t terribly proactive while Counsell was still available, with Attanasio stating that he and general manager Matt Arnold “thought it was going to muddy things if we started interviews with third parties” but that Arnold has “conducted a couple of internal interviews, for what that’s worth.” That suggests they are still in the early stages of their search, with still a wide list of potential candidates being considered, as mentioned above.

Murphy, 65 this month, has a small amount of managerial experience. He was in the Padres’ organization in June of 2015 when Bud Black was fired as manager. Murphy got the gig on an interim basis for the second half of that season but Andy Green took over for the 2016 campaign. Murphy then came to the Brewers to serve as bench coach under Counsell and has garnered plenty of interest from clubs with managerial openings since, but has stayed in Milwaukee.

Mattingly, 63 in April, has plenty of experience as a bench boss. He was at the helm for the Dodgers from 2011 to 2015 and then for the Marlins from 2016 to 2022, before joining the Blue Jays as bench coach for the 2023 season.

Espada, 48, has coaching experience with the Marlins and Yankees but has been the bench coach of the Astros since the start of the 2018 season. He has been connected to various managerial gigs in the past few years but is still with the Astros, who just saw Dusty Baker step out of the skipper’s chair. It’s been speculated that Espada could take over in Houston but nothing is official there.

McCullough, 44 next month, has been the first base coach of the Dodgers since the 2021 campaign. He recently interviewed for the managerial opening in Cleveland but that position has now been filled by Stephen Vogt.

Snitker, 35 next month, is the son of Atlanta manager Brian Snitker. He has been co-hitting coach for the Astros for the past five seasons alongside Álex Cintrón.

Weeks, 41, played in the majors from 2003 to 2017, most of that in Milwaukee. He was hired by the Brewers for a player development role going into the 2022 season.

It had been reported in recent weeks that Counsell had been drawing widespread interest, as his contract with the Brewers just expired after the 2023 season. He interviewed with the Guardians and Mets and garnered interest from the Astros, though a return to the Brewers seemed to still be possible. However, today has brought a series of surprising twists, with the Guardians hiring Stephen Vogt, the Mets bringing aboard Carlos Mendoza and Counsell apparently departing for some mystery club that doesn’t even have a current vacancy.

Shortly after this post was published, the mystery team was revealed to be the Cubs. Find more details in this post.

That’s not necessarily a completely far-fetched scenario, however. After all, Counsell seems likely to have his pick between the Mets, Guardians, and the incumbent Brewers, all of whom appear to be prioritizing Counsell as their top option to lead their club in the dugout next year. It’s unclear where Counsell will ultimately land, reports have indicated that Counsell will at least offer Milwaukee a chance to match whatever salary offer he receives from New York and Cleveland. If Counsell does wind up returning to Milwuakee, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com relayed recently that the favorites for the job with the Guardians would then be Mendoza and Mariners coach Stephen Vogt.

That creates at least the possibility of a situation where the Brewers retain Counsell while the Guardians land Mendoza, leaving the Mets unsure about who their next manager will be. Cubs bench coach and former Padres manager Andy Green as well as current A’s manager Mark Kotsay have both been noted as possible candidates for the manager job in New York in the past, and the Mets are known to be searching for an external candidate, specifically.

More managerial notes from around the game…

• The Astros could be nearing the end of their search for a manager to replace veteran skipper Dusty Baker, who retired at the end of the 2023 season. Per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, GM Dana Brown is “pushing” for the organization to promote bench coach Joe Espada to take over for Baker in the role. That being said, even an endorsement from Brown doesn’t necessarily guarantee the job will go to Espada; after all, as recent reports have indicated that both owner Jim Crane and adviser Jeff Bagwell will have “immense say” over who takes the reins from Baker in the dugout when all is said and done. Former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus along with third base coach Omar Lopez are among the other rumored contenders for the managerial gig in Houston.
• Before the Padres settled on Bob Melvin to manage the club during the 2021-22 offseason, Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune indicates that president of baseball operations met with former Padres and Giants manager Bruce Bochy regarding his interest in the position. Krasovic relays that per Bochy’s agent Tony Attanasio, Preller and Bochy met twice that offseason in Bochy’s home in Nashville, TN. Attanasio suggests that Bochy wasn’t especially interested in returning to San Diego, and of course the club wound up hiring Melvin for the role instead. For his part, Bochy would return to the game as skipper of the Rangers in 2023, leading the club to its first World Series championship in franchise history.

Counsell is in high demand due to his successful track record as a skipper. He took over as the bench boss for Brewers when they were at a weak point and saw the results gradually improve in his first few seasons, winning 61, 73 and 86 games in his first three campaigns from 2015 to 2017. Since then, the club went on to qualify for the postseason in five of the past six years, despite the club generally having payrolls on the lower end of the league.

That success had garnered him interviews with the Mets and Guardians for their managerial vacancies. The Astros also have interest but it seems they are planning to take their time in their hiring process, which may prevent them from having a shot with Counsell. The fit with the Mets has been speculated upon since David Stearns left the Brewers to become president of baseball operations with the Mets. Given that Stearns and Counsell spent so much time working together, it’s been assumed by many that Stearns would poach Counsell and bring him to Queens.

Despite that outside interest, there would be logic to Counsell preferring to stay in Milwaukee, given his longstanding ties to the region. He grew up in Wisconsin and his father worked for the Brewers. Craig then spent part of his playing career with the club before his managerial career began.

Per the report from Hogg and Rosiak, Counsell is motivated by pushing the market forward in terms of manager salaries, particularly in smaller markets. Although Joe Torre once secured a salary of $8MM when managing the Yankees in the past, the market has apparently softened since then. It has been reported that Terry Francona had the highest salary of any manager in the league in 2023. Previous reports stated his contract with the Guardians had an average annual value of $4.5MM but Hogg and Rosiak relay that it was an even $5MM in 2023.

Counsell himself wasn’t too far off, getting $3.5MM from the Brewers in 2023, but he is now looking to “at least double” that figure next year, per Hogg and Rosiak. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Mets stepped up with the offer of $7MM that Counsell appears to be seeking. Owner Steve Cohen has quickly earned a spendthrift reputation since buying the Mets, seemingly to have little hesitation about plonking down money when he wants something.

But that may not be enough in this case. Per the report, Counsell will return to Milwaukee with whatever offer he has in hand and give the Brewers a chance to match it. If they are willing to do so, he will “almost certainly” stay in Milwaukee, but he doesn’t appear willing to take a hometown discount. The Brewers reportedly offered him a raise at the end of the season but it seems it wasn’t enough to prevent him from sniffing around and seeing what else is available to him.

Whether the Brewers will match the Mets is a fair question to ask. The club generally walks a fine line when it comes to payroll, occasionally having to make tough roster decisions based on money rather than targeting optimal on-field alignments. The most infamous example of this was the trade of Josh Hader, who was flipped to San Diego as his salary increased, with the club hoping the less-expensive Taylor Rogers could pick up the slack while other cheaper players bolstered other parts of the roster.

It has been speculated that another such trade could be coming this winter, with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames each about to enter their respective final arbitration seasons with projected eight-figure salaries. Woodruff’s injury may complicate that matter, but the point remains that it may be tough for a penny-pinching club to have the most expensive manager in the league.

Resolution may not take much longer, as a decision is “likely” by the end of the general manager meetings, which run from November 7 to 9.

The fit with Counsell has been speculated upon for quite some time. David Stearns was general manager and president of baseball operations with the Brewers for many years, overlapping with Counsell’s time as skipper in Milwaukee. Stearns was recently hired by the Mets for the POBO job with that club and one of his first actions was to fire Showalter, immediately causing many to assume that Counsell would follow Stearns to Queens.

Counsell was under contract with the Brewers through the end of October but the Mets received permission to interview him last week. It seems that interview has still not officially taken place, though Martino reports that he did speak to the club on the phone. He has also interviewed with the Guardians and has attracted the interest of the Astros. While a return to Milwaukee could still be possible, it seems Counsell is being thorough in assessing his options.

Mendoza’s involvement in the search has previously been reported but Kotsay is a new entry. He is currently the manager of the A’s, having been hired to be the bench boss of that club prior to the 2022 campaign. The club has been terrible in that time but that could hardly be blamed on the skipper since the A’s have been aggressively rebuilding, trading away just about every established big league player making a notable salary.

If the Mets are seriously interested in Kotsay, they may have to work out an arrangement with the A’s. Oakland let Bob Melvin jump to the Padres prior to hiring Kotsay, not asking the Padres for any compensation in return. It was speculated that the A’s were happy to let Melvin walk to save on his salary, which was reported to be about $4MM per year. It’s unknown how much Kotsay is making but it’s presumably less than that. Whether the A’s would have any reluctance to letting their manager jump ship this time is unknown.

Espada has been the bench coach in Houston since 2018 and has been connected to various managerial openings since then. He has yet to move on from that gig and it’s unclear if the lack of interview with the Mets was a decision of his or of the Mets. The Astros have their own managerial vacancy with Dusty Baker stepping down and Espada has been floated as a possible fit for that job, though it doesn’t seem as though that club is in a hurry to fill that vacancy.

Mendoza, 43, spent 13 seasons as a minor league player before joining the Yankees’ minor league coaching staff in 2009. He joined the big league coaching staff as an infield coach in 2017 before being promoted to bench coach following the 2019 season. Green, on the other hand, participated in parts of four big league seasons during his playing career, including the 2009 season as a member of the Mets. Since retiring, Green served briefly as third base coach of the Diamondbacks before being hired to manage the Padres prior to the 2016 season. Green managed in San Diego for four seasons before joining the Cubs’ coaching staff as bench coach prior to the 2020 campaign.

The pair have drawn interest from other clubs for managerial vacancies, as well. After drawing occasional managerial interest in recent years, Mendoza was among the likeliest candidates to take over for Gabe Kapler as manager of the Giants prior to the club securing permission to interview Bob Melvin. In addition, both coaches have been interviewed by the Guardians. If hired in Cleveland, either coach would step into the shoes of longtime manager Terry Francona following his recent retirement.

Should Mendoza depart the Bronx for another club this offseason, Martino notes that the Yankees could look to promote third base coach Luis Rojas, himself a former Mets manager, to the position. Though Rojas’s contract with the Yankees is up this offseason, Martino makes clear the the club has interest in retaining him, either as bench coach or in his current role as third base coach. It’s not yet clear what direction the Cubs could go in if they wind up needing to replace Green. Chicago already lost a key member of the club’s staff this offseason when Craig Breslow departed the Cubs’ front office to take the vacant GM role in Boston.

That the Mets are moving on to a second interview with Mendoza suggests that the club’s interest in his services next year is strong, though Sherman still refers to Brewers manager Craig Counsell as the “favorite” for the Mets job. Of course, Counsell has plenty of options beyond New York that could complicate the club’s pursuit of his services; Counsell has received interest from the Astros, the Brewers hope to retain him in Milwaukee on a new contract, and he’s already interviewed with the Guardians. Curiously, while MLB Network’s Jon Morosi has indicated that Counsell and the Mets have discussed the club’s managerial vacancy, Martino makes clear that Counsell has not had a formal interview with Mets brass to this point.

With the Mets apparently advancing to a second round of interviews for other candidates before sitting down with Counsell for a first interview it’s possible, speculatively speaking, that the club hopes to move through the interview process with other candidates so that they can act quickly upon Counsell’s decision regarding where he will manage in 2024. If that’s the case, it’s unclear what other candidates could be in the mix beyond Mendoza and Green, as details regarding the managerial search in New York have been few and far between this offseason. While Rangers associate manager Will Venable reportedly declined to interview for the position last month, Mendoza, Green, and Counsell are the only publicly known candidates for the position at this point.

It could be that Houston is just doing its due diligence in checking in on Counsell, given his impressive track record over nine seasons with the Brewers.  The Astros naturally expect to contend again in 2024, so hiring a manager like Counsell who has proven he can consistently get teams into the postseason would seem like a logical way to fill the big shoes left behind by the retiring Dusty Baker.

Since it has been barely over a week since the Astros were eliminated from the ALCS and Baker announced his retirement, the club’s managerial search has yet to really kick into full gear.  Bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers/Angels manager Brad Ausmus are seen as two of the top potential candidates, but word has yet to filter out about what other names Houston could be considering for the job.

As for Counsell, his contract with the Brewers officially ends today, so the manager will be fully available as of Wednesday to be hired by another team.  This doesn’t mean that a decision is necessarily coming quickly, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) notes that there isn’t any known timeline Counsell might have in choosing his next job.  The potential inclusion of the Astros adds another wrinkle to a list of suitors that is already three teams deep.

The Brewers already granted the Mets and Guardians permission to interview Counsell, while Hogg hears from a source that the Brewers themselves “have begun the process of requesting interviews with potential managerial replacements.”  This is another natural due-diligence move since obviously the Crew don’t want to start a managerial search from scratch if Counsell does leave, though it does represent some “uncertainty” within Milwaukee’s front office over what Counsell’s decision will be.

By this point, it appears as though Counsell will certainly become the highest-paid manager in the sport, as it’s hard to imagine his next deal wouldn’t top the $4.5MM average annual salary Terry Francona received as the Guards’ former manager.  The Mets and owner Steve Cohen could certainly throw their financial weight around if it means bringing Counsell into the fold, but Hogg argues that the Brewers have no reason to not offer Counsell a big raise, as he was already making a $3.5MM salary.  As Hogg further notes, a manager’s salary is comparatively small in relation to the salaries that even a smaller-market team like the Brewers give to average players.

“You know, changes could mean a lot of different things,” Judge said, “From philosophies, players, coaches, everything. [The Yankees] haven’t made it to the big dance in quite a few years, so we got some work to do, even on the player side.”

Judge has previously spoken about a desire to see the club’s communication of analytics information to players improved, hinting at one area the club could look to improve in 2024. Beyond that, the Yankees have at least one spot on the coaching staff to fill, as in-season hitting coach hire Sean Casey won’t return to the club in 2024. The club has frequently been a topic of discussion on the trade rumor mill the past month, as well, with a rumored connection to Padres star Juan Soto. The potential for the club to move on from some arbitration-level players, including a member of their catching corps and perhaps even second baseman Gleyber Torres, has also been discussed.

More from MLB’s East divisions…

• The Mets have not yet scheduled an interview with Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who formally interviewed with the Guardians yesterday. That being said, Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates that while the meeting between the sides hasn’t been “firmed up yet”, the expectation is that a meeting will happen soon. What’s more, Heyman adds that the Mets figure to be the highest bidder for Counsell’s services in terms of salary. While Heyman suggests that the Mets are unlikely to offer a salary at the level of Joe Torre’s record $8MM figure as manager of the Yankees, he notes that still leaves plenty of room for the Mets to offer Counsell a contract richer than the $4.5MM salary recently-retired Guardians manager Terry Francona received in 2023, which was the highest in the majors this year.
• Nationals right-hander Kyle Finnegan figures to reprise his role as the club’s closer in 2024, as noted by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Zuckerman suggests that the club hopes Finnegan will continue performing with the club as a late-inning option out of the bullpen into 2025, when they hope to return to contention. That being said, Zuckerman also suggests that, in the event the Nationals are out of the race next summer and Finnegan is pitching well, the club will once again consider moving Finnegan, as they did prior to the trade deadline earlier this year. Of course, no deal came together then, and Finnegan struggled down the stretch this season with a 5.18 ERA and 5.52 FIP in 24 1/3 innings in August and September. That being said, Finnegan entered the month of August with an ERA of 3.00, leaving him with solid overall season numbers including a 3.76 ERA (115 ERA+) and a 21.9% strikeout rate in 67 appearances.

Bellinger’s struggles led the Dodgers to non-tender him this past offseason, leading him to sign with the Cubs for the 2023 campaign. As brutal as those struggles were, Sharma relays that the scouts he spoke to were unconcerned about Bellinger regressing to the below-average form he showed the past two seasons. While Sharma notes that the scouts suggested that Bellinger’s performance this year likely included some good fortune, casting doubt on his ability to replicate the 134 wRC+ campaign he had this season, he still figures to be an above-average contributor over the next few years, with one scout suggesting a 115-120 wRC+ is a realistic expectation for Bellinger in 2024 and beyond.

What’s more, Sharma relays that the Cubs expect Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, to be patient in their pursuit of the best contract available this winter. Sharma suggests that the Cubs are “preparing for [Boras] to take Bellinger’s negotiations deep into the offseason” as they maintain interest in resigning him, with the negotiations expected to last into the new year barring “an outlandish deal.” Chicago’s pursuit of Bellinger figures to be a key piece of the club’s offseason on the heels of a 2023 season that saw the Cubs post a surprisingly competitive 83-79 record, finishing just one game out of an NL Wild Card spot. That success came in large part thanks to Bellinger, who was the strongest offensive contributor to the club in 2023. Though top center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is waiting in the wings to take over up the middle, that would likely represent a significant drop in offensive output for the Cubs in 2024.

More from around MLB’s Central divisons…

• Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who is set to become a free agent on November 1, is currently meeting with the Guardians in Cleveland to discuss the club’s managerial opening (as reported by Zack Meisel and Will Sammon of The Athletic). Though the sides ultimately coming together on a deal is considered to be something of a long-shot, the Guardians are accustomed to spending more on their manager than the typical small-market club, as recently-retired Cleveland skipper Terry Francona was reportedly the highest-paid manager in baseball last season. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-regarded managers in the game and figures to be highly sought after during his free agency, with the Mets known to have interest in his services in addition to the Guardians and Brewers. Per SNY’s Andy Martino, Counsell’s meeting with the Guardians today marks his first official interview this offseason.
• The Tigers found a major success story on the waiver wire back during Spring Training in left-hander Tyler Holton, who pitched to a sterling 2.11 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 85 innings of work for Detroit this season. As discussed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Holton stands out as a prime example of the benefits of president of baseball operations Scott Harris’s frequent use of the waiver wire; as Petzold notes, the Tigers have made 17 waiver claims since Harris took the reins of Detroit’s front office in September 2022. In addition to the savvy waiver claim, Petzold notes that Detroit’s pitching infrastructure helped Holton develop a slider early in the 2023 campaign that proved to be perhaps his most effective pitch. Hitter batted just .135 against the slider this year with a minuscule .153 wOBA, per Statcast.

Despite the relative lack of contractual stability, it doesn’t appear as though Thomson is going anywhere, given how successful the Fightins have been under his watch.  With still plenty of time left for an extension to be negotiated, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see a new contract for Thomson announced prior to Opening Day.  Though Thomson had been planning to retire from baseball heading into the 2022 season, his first run as a big league manager has re-energized his spirits.  “I love this city, this organization, this team.  I have never had as much fun in my life as I have the last couple of years.  So yeah, I can envision [managing beyond 2024,” Thomson told Coffey and company.

More on other dugout situations around baseball….

• The Guardians are set to interview Craig Counsell after being granted permission by the Brewers earlier this week, creating speculation that the Guards might be able to find another experienced, successful manager to replace Terry Francona.  However, a Counsell/Cleveland pairing looks to be “a long shot,” as a source tells Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Pluto feels Counsell will ultimately end up staying in Milwaukee, though he thinks “the Guardians should go hard after Counsell” by giving him a deal akin to Francona’s past status as the highest-paid manager in baseball.  Of course, this wouldn’t stop the Brewers from also offering Counsell a raise, or the deep-pocketed Mets (who are also pursuing Counsell) from going overboard in a bidding war.
• The Orioles’ coaching changes earlier this week could be “akin to the principal becoming the headmaster of a school and a new principal coming in beneath him to handle the day to day,” The Baltimore Banner’s Jon Meoli writes.  Chris Holt will remain the club’s director of pitching, even if he will no longer be acting as the Orioles’ pitching coach and quite so intimately involved in game-day operations.  Odds are that the Orioles will fill the pitching coach role from within, though Meoli feels an outside hire would represent some alteration in Baltimore’s approach in managing and developing their hurlers.

Just as Counsell has other suitors beyond Cleveland in Milwaukee and Queens, the Guardians also have options outside of Counsell as they look to replace Terry Francona in the dugout. Cubs bench coach Andy Green recently interviewed for the position, and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz have all also met with the Guardians regarding their managerial vacancy. Of that group, only Green has past experience as a big league manager aside from Counsell. While Counsell reportedly enters free agency hoping to move the ball forward for future managers around the game in terms of salary, that seems unlikely to preclude the Guardians from making a run at Counsell’s services, given Francona was the highest paid manager in the game this season, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that Francona made $4.5MM in 2023.

More from around the AL Central…

• Despite not being part of the club’s starting lineup during their postseason run, veteran catcher Christian Vazquez figures to remain a significant part of the Twins in 2024, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. Per Nightengale, the team plans to offer roughly equal playing time to Vazquez and fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers behind the plate next year. Vazquez just wrapped up the first season of his three-year, $30MM deal with the club and suffered the worst offensive season of his career with a .223/.280/.318 slash line across 355 plate appearances. By contrast, Jeffers had a breakout season, slashing .276/.369/.490 in 335 trips to the plate. While Jeffers is clearly the stronger offensive option, Vazquez is regarded as an elite defensive catcher and Jeffers could feasibly see additional playing time at DH next year as a way to keep his bat in the lineup on days Vazquez is behind the plate.
• The Tigers had another difficult season in 2023, posting a 78-84 record and finishing 9 games out of a postseason spot. That being said, one significant bright spot for the club this year was catcher Jake Rogers, who Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press indicates has already secured his role as the club’s top option behind the plate for 2024. Rogers improved on defense in 2023 to post framing numbers in line with other quality regulars at the position like Adley Rutschman and Alejandro Kirk while also slashing a respectable .221/.286/.444 with 21 home runs in just 365 trips to the plate. Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances in the majors this year, Rogers’s 97 wRC+ ties him with Mets rookie Francisco Alvarez for the 14th-best figure in the majors.

Cleveland could add a big name to that list. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that the Guardians have requested permission from the Brewers to meet with the current Milwaukee manager. Craig Counsell’s contract with the Brew Crew runs through the end of the month, meaning the Brewers have to sign off on any such meeting. Considering they’ve already granted him permission to interview for the Mets job, they could well do the same with Cleveland.

This is the first time Green has been publicly reported as a managerial candidate since he joined David Ross’ coaching staff during the 2019-20 offseason. The 46-year-old has spent four seasons in the #2 job in Chicago after three and a half years leading the charge in San Diego. The Padres tabbed Green as manager entering the 2016 season.

A mostly-rebuilding San Diego team lost 90+ games in his three full campaigns. With the club en route to a fourth-place finish in 2019, the Padres fired Green in September. That led him to Chicago. In addition to his three-plus years managing in the big leagues, the former MLB infielder had managed in the Diamondbacks’ farm system early in the 2010s.

Counsell’s MLB résumé is far more robust, as he has led the Brewers to a 53.1% win percentage and five playoff appearances in parts of nine seasons. Even if he meets with Cleveland, they’ll face competition from perhaps the Mets and a Milwaukee organization that has made clear it hopes to retain its longtime skipper.

A belief that New York would be willing to offer Counsell a notable raise relative to his reported $3.5MM salary is among the reasons some observers believe he could wind up in Queens (as is the oft-noted connection to new president of baseball operations David Stearns). Sammon writes that the Guardians could be prepared to make a competitive financial proposal to Counsell after making Terry Francona one of the league’s higher-paid managers during his 11 years there.

Counsell, 53, has been the manager of the Brewers since 2015 but has been a speculative fit for the Mets for a while now. David Stearns had been general manager/president of baseball operations in Milwaukee for roughly the same period of time that Counsell was manager and recently made the move to the Mets. Upon joining his new club, he almost immediately fired Buck Showalter and opened the manager position in Queens.

Given the longstanding relationship between Stearns and Counsell, many made the logical conclusion that Stearns would bring Counsell to the Mets with him. But that assumed reunion has been on hold recently, as Counsell is still technically the manager of the Brewers. It was previously reported that his contract runs through the end of October, which seemed like it was going to push any interviews with the Mets or other clubs until November, though it now appears the Brewers will let him talk to the Mets about a week early.

The Brewers have generally been successful during the Stearns-Counsell period, making the playoffs in five of the past six seasons despite not running up huge payrolls. That has naturally led to interest from other clubs, wondering what they could do with more resources. Stearns is already aboard with the Mets but it’s not a guarantee Counsell will follow him. As Martino adds, Counsell is expected to pursue other openings just as the Mets are expected to consider other candidates.

The Guardians, Angels and Padres also have managerial vacancies and would presumably have some level of interest in Counsell. It’s been reported that Dusty Baker may step away from managing as well, which would add the Astros to that list. It also can’t really be ruled out that Counsell stays with the Brewers. While he may be tempted by a bigger market and a presumably larger salary, he grew up in Wisconsin and has long-standing ties to the region. His father worked for the Brewers and Craig spent part of his playing career with the club before his managerial career began.

About a week ago, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Brewers felt he would stay in Milwaukee if he was paid “what he believes is fair.” He reportedly made $3.5MM in 2023, though it’s unknown what level of compensation he would consider a reasonable bump. Given the free-spending ways of the Mets, they would likely be able to offer him a higher salary than the Brewers, though it’s unknown whether that would be enough to pry Counsell away from the club where he has those aforementioned connections.

Some might interpret the Brewers giving him permission to talk to the Mets as a sign they aren’t committed to Counsell, though another explanation would just be about timing. Teams generally prefer to have a manager in place when the offseason begins and they start talking to potential free agents. Therefore the Brewers could have it in their best interest to have Counsell start assessing his options so that they can get clarity on whether he may come back or if they themselves need to start interviewing new candidates.

Heyman adds that negotiations between Counsell and the Brewers have seemingly not yet progressed at this point, though as previously reported, Counsell won’t have the option to speak to other teams until November. While Counsell, who lives year-round with his family in the suburbs of Milwaukee, has strong ties to both the are and the Brewers organization, Heyman notes that the Mets have potential advantages in newly-hired president of baseball operations David Stearns and, perhaps more importantly, the reported ability to offer Counsell a significant raise; Heyman relays that a source suggested the Mets could offer Counsell double his 2023 salary with Milwaukee of $3.5MM.

A consensus top-tier manager in today’s game, Counsell would surely attract interest from other clubs if he was willing to depart Milwaukee; the Guardians, Giants, and Angels all have managerial openings of their own. Whether Counsell eventually ends up staying with the Brewers, headed to the Mets, or somewhere else entirely, Heyman notes the Mets are still proceeding with their managerial search in order to ensure they have options outside of Counsell.

More coaching notes from around the game…

• One candidate for the Mets Heyman floats is Astros manager Dusty Baker, though his connection of Baker and Queens appears to be purely speculative. That said, Heyman does suggest that Baker is “frustrated” over disputes with the front office regarding analytics. Baker’s decision to use Martin Maldonado as the club’s primary catcher rather than rookie Yainer Diaz as an example of a situation where GM Dana Brown’s front office has butted heads with the dugout. Baker, for his part, has managed in Houston for four seasons on a series of one-year pacts and was noncommittal regarding whether he planned to manage beyond 2023 when asked earlier this year. If the Astros do go in another direction for the manager’s chair after this season, Heyman speculates that bench coach and longtime managerial candidate Joe Espada would be a “logical replacement” for Baker in the Houston dugout.
• The Rays announced today that first base coach Chris Prieto and assistant hitting coach Dan DeMent will not return to the club’s coaching staff for the 2024 season. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds that the Rays are expected to consider both internal and external candidates as they look to replace Prieto, though DeMent will not be replaced on the staff. Topkin notes that with hitting coach Chad Mottola and assistant hitting coach Brady North already in place, the Rays felt a third hitting coach “proved unwieldy.” The only other change in the club’s coaching staff Topkin relays as expected is the departure of process and analytics coach Jonathan Erlichman, who Topkin adds is moving to another position in the organization, though that position has not yet been disclosed.