Kershaw’s 2025 timeline has never been clear until now. He announced in early November that he would require some surgical work on his lower left leg. Part of that was due to a bone spur in the big toe on his left foot, which sent him to the IL last year. The surgeries would also address a ruptured plantar plate and a torn meniscus in his knee. It was never expressly laid out when Kershaw expected to return, though there’s now at least a vague target.

Players can be placed on the 60-day IL once pitchers and catchers report to spring training, so several players are already there, including Dodgers like Gavin Stone and River Ryan. Kershaw could follow them there but the 60-day count doesn’t begin until Opening Day. IL transactions can be backdated three days, so teams will only put guys on the 60-day if they don’t expect them to be healthy in the first 57 days of the season.

The Dodgers start the schedule a little bit earlier than most teams, as they and the Cubs are facing off in the Tokyo Series this year. Two regular season games between those teams will take place on March 18th and 19th, while the 28 other teams will play their first regular season game March 27.

The update from Kershaw makes the rotation picture a little less crowded in the short term. As of right now, the Dodgers project to have a six-man starting staff consisting of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. They will start the season with Shohei Ohtani acting as the designated hitter but not pitching. He didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and also required surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in the fall. He is expected to be back on the mound in May and it seems Kershaw’s timeline is similar.

It’s theoretically possible the Dodgers will have too many rotation options at times this summer. Once Kershaw and Ohtani are back in the mix, they could have eight viable candidates for six spots. Sasaki and Gonsolin are the only two who can be optioned to the minors. It seems highly unlikely Sasaki will be sent down at any point, given that he’s already considered an ace-level talent. Gonsolin is also just 20 days away from five years of MLB service time, at which point he would have the right to refuse being optioned.

However, there are also health concerns all throughout the group, so it seems fair to wonder how often six or more of them will be healthy at any given time. May and Gonsolin missed all of 2024 recovering from surgery. Snell only pitched 104 innings last year and has only hit 130 twice in his career. Yamamoto’s first MLB season saw him spend a lot of time on the IL, only getting to 90 innings. Glasnow set a personal best last year by getting to 134. Sasaki never hit 130 innings in any of his seasons in Japan.

It’s an extreme quality-over-quantity group, so it will be interesting to see if it ever feels truly crowded. If significant injuries pile up, the club also has Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius as optionable guys on the roster who should be in the Triple-A rotation.

For Kershaw personally, he will be looking take on a sizable workload for the first time in a while. It used to be his norm to log about 230 innings in a season but he hasn’t done that since 2015 and he hasn’t hit 132 since 2019. He did get to 131 2/3 in 2023 but was clearly working with diminished stuff and required shoulder surgery in the offseason. He returned from that procedure to make seven starts in July and August of last year but then went back on the IL due to the foot issues and finished the year with just 30 innings pitched.

Missing the first few weeks of 2025 will prevent him from having a massive workload this year but he could certainly go well beyond those 30 frames if things go according to plan. As for what’s beyond that, it seems the future Hall-of-Famer isn’t making any decisions yet. He tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he plans to go year to year, as opposed to putting a firm timeline on how many more seasons he plans to play in.

Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.

In all, that $7.5MM base can more than double to $16MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season.

Feb. 11: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw have agreed to terms on a new deal, reports Alden González of ESPN. It was previously relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times that the lefty is in camp with the club. The deal isn’t official yet because the Excel Sports Management client still has to undergo a physical. The details of the new agreement aren’t yet publicly known. The Dodgers will need to open a 40-man spot but have several candidates to be moved to the 60-day injured list.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise at all. The future Hall-of-Famer has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point. He has gone into free agency multiple times and always re-signed. There has occasionally been some thought that he would like to join the Rangers, since he’s from the Dallas area, but that’s never come to fruition. On the heels of the Dodgers winning the most recent World Series, he declared himself a “Dodger for life.”

Kershaw, 37 in March, did turn down a $10MM player option for the 2025 season. Still, that seemed to be more of a formality, based on the strong relationship between him and the franchise. Even though he walked away from that money, the industry expectation has been that the two sides would reunite on some kind of new deal. As recently has a few weeks ago, it was reported that the two sides were interested in a reunion.

His current health situation is unknown. In early November, when he made the “Dodger for life” comment, Kershaw also relayed some details of upcoming surgeries. He told reporters at that time that he was to have work done on both his left toe and his left knee. He had dealt with bone spurs in his big toe during the season and also revealed after the campaign that he had a torn meniscus and a ruptured plantar plate that needed to be addressed.

It’s possible that his new deal will come with various incentives based on his output, as was the case the last time he re-signed with the Dodgers. He had surgery going into last winter and wasn’t expected to come back until midway through the 2024 schedule. He signed a deal with a modest $10MM guarantee over 2024 and 2025, with the latter year being a player option. Based on his 2024 appearances, he could earn an extra $7.5MM in 2024, as well as potentially bumping the $5MM option as high as $20MM. There were also incentives based on his 2025 appearances that could have allowed him to earn as much as $25MM on the year.

Kershaw only ended up throwing 30 innings over seven starts last year, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine. He started the season on the IL while still recovering from that shoulder surgery, getting reinstated in late July. But he was back on the IL by the end of August due to his toe issues and finished the season there. That wasn’t a huge showing but it was enough to get the base of his player option up to $10MM. Though he went back under the knife for his lower body injuries, he still felt comfortable enough turning that down, though he and the club will surely figure out some new arrangement that works for both.

Though it’s not a surprise to see Kershaw back with the club, there’s still some mystery about what’s next. As mentioned, it’s unclear if he’s fully healthy now or if he’s still working his way back from his most recent procedure.

On paper, the Dodgers have a robust collection of rotation options. They currently have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow taking up four spots. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be in the mix as well. Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to be ready by Opening Day but could be back on the hill in May.

The club seems likely to run a six-man rotation. That’s partially due to Sasaki making the move from Japan, where starting pitchers only throw once a week. On top of that, basically everyone else in their pile of starters has workload concerns. Snell only got to 104 innings last year and has only twice gone beyond 130. Yamamoto spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL and only got to 90 frames. Glasnow got to 134, which was a career high for him. May, Gonsolin and Ohtani were recovering from respective surgeries, with no one of that trio pitching last year.

Throw Kershaw into the mix and its eight starters for six spots, before even mentioning pitchers like Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius, who all have options and are likely to be in the minors as depth.

Given all the health question marks throughout the group, it’s unlikely to expect everyone to be healthy for the entire season, but there may be times where players get squeezed. Moving to the bullpen isn’t easy either, as the club is a bit squeezed there as well. With a six-man rotation, the club can only have seven relievers, given the 13-pitcher roster limit. Ohtani counts as a two-way player and will eventually allow them to have 14 pitchers, but he won’t be pitching to start the year.

The bullpen chart currently includes Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. No one in that group can be optioned except for Vesia, who had a 1.76 ERA last year. The bullpen is tight enough that Ryan Brasier recently got designated for assignment and flipped to the Cubs.

Time will tell how the Dodgers balance the juggling act, though the pressure on the 40-man roster is about to ease. Now that they have opened camp, they are allowed to transfer players to the 60-day injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are likely bound for the IL soon, with each recovering from a significant surgery. The Dodgers will need a roster spot for Kershaw once this becomes official, but that will still leave them with three roster spots to play with.

Financially, RosterResource has the Dodgers at a $383MM payroll and $386MM competitive balance tax figure. Those are both franchise records and tops in the league by wide margins, but the club seems to have few limits right now. They have international star power from Ohtani and various other players on the roster, with a decade-plus run of postseason appearances, in addition to being reigning world champions. The cash flow situation seems to be incredibly healthy, with the ownership group willing to pump a lot of that money back into the roster.

Despite that stock of arms, the organization still seems open to and likely to re-sign lefty Clayton Kershaw. General manager Brandon Gomes said yesterday that the newcomers on the pitching staff haven’t altered the team’s interest in Kershaw (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Kershaw, 37 in March, is recovering surgery to repair a torn meniscus and a second surgery to address bone spurs and a ruptured plantar plate in his foot. He’s working through a throwing program but is not yet pitching off a mound, per Gomes.

In each of the past two offseasons, there’s been at least a bit of intrigue as to where the future Hall of Famer might sign. It was a two-team market in those instances, with Kershaw expected to either remain in L.A. or sign a short-term deal with the Rangers, who play within driving distance of his Texas home. After the Dodgers captured a World Series title last year, however, Kershaw declared himself a “Dodger for life.” He subsequently reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya not long after that he planned to be back with the Dodgers for an 18th season in 2025.

Given that a reunion is something of a fait accompli, it seems there’s no rush to get a contract finalized. Kershaw declined a player option back in November. The two parties are widely expected to work out a new arrangement. From the Dodgers’ vantage point, it’d be beneficial to hold off on formalizing anything until spring training has commenced. They’re already facing a 40-man roster crunch with the looming but not-yet-finalized deals with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates.

The Dodgers need to open one 40-man spot for that pair — they’re currently at 39 players — and re-signing Kershaw now would mean jettisoning a second 40-man player. If he signs after camp opens, though, the Dodgers will be able to accommodate his addition by placing an injured player on the 60-day IL. The Dodgers have a whopping five pitchers who are on the 40-man and recovering from major surgeries. Brusdar Graterol will miss the first half of the season following shoulder surgery. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and could miss the entire 2025 season. Each of River Ryan (Aug. 25), Kyle Hurt (July 30) and Emmet Sheehan (May 16) had Tommy John surgery last year. They’ll all very likely be placed on the 60-day IL at some point.

The aforementioned knee and foot injuries, paired with Kershaw’s rehab from Nov. 2023 shoulder surgery, combined to limit the three-time Cy Young winner to just 30 innings in 2024. He posted a 4.50 ERA with an 18% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate, showing strong command but uncharacteristically low swing-and-miss abilities. Kershaw’s fastball sat at a career-low 89.9 mph on average last season, and his slider and curveball each saw a dip in velo as well (particularly the latter).

There’s no telling the extent to which he can regain some of the lost velocity, but from 2019-23, Kershaw notched a 2.77 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate over 616 1/3 innings even while averaging just 90.7 mph on his heater. He doesn’t need to get his velocity back up to or even close to its 93-94 mph peak to have success. The Dodgers are in the top tier of luxury penalization yet again, so any dollars allocated to Kershaw will come with a 110% tax.

Kershaw has said on a few occasions that he plans to stay in Los Angeles. He announced at the World Series parade that he would be a “Dodger for life.” It stands to reason that the future Hall of Famer plans to renegotiate a new contract with the team, but he needed to decide by this evening whether to exercise the option.

In all likelihood, this is simply a move that’ll buy the sides time to hammer out a new incentive-laden deal. Kershaw’s last contract was heavily stocked with incentives as he returned from shoulder surgery. While he’s not battling anything quite that serious this time around, he is set to undergo surgeries on his left knee and left big toe. Kershaw and the club may want to evaluate his recovery before settling on some kind of incentive package for his next contract.

That also affords an extra bit of flexibility from a roster perspective. Kershaw would have counted against the 40-man roster all winter had he exercised the option. He won’t count against the roster for as long as he’s a free agent. That’ll allow the Dodgers to somewhat unofficially operate with an extra spot for a while.

Once Kershaw returns to L.A., he’ll rejoin a rotation that could lose both Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to free agency. The Dodgers have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May among their in-house rotation options. As is the case each winter, it’s a group loaded with talent but plenty of durability questions. The Dodgers should be heavily involved for starting pitching.

“My hopes are really high.  Like I’ve said before, the Dodgers are the priority, obviously,” Hernandez said.  “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….I want us to be here.  I want us to be part of this.  I have so many good memories here.  I’ve learned a lot as a player, as a person.  It feels great to be part of this.”

“I love this city.  I never want to leave,” Flaherty told Vassegh, with the words perhaps carrying a bit of extra weight since Flaherty was born in Burbank and grew up in Los Angeles.  This doesn’t necessarily mean that Flaherty would give the Dodgers a hometown discount, though naturally playing close to home gives the Dodgers (and theoretically the Angels) an extra edge that other potential free-agent suitors can’t match.

It isn’t surprising to hear players on any team (whether world champions or not) express an open desire to re-sign with their current teams, and feelings could change as the free agent market develops.  Of course, winning a title again underlines the fact that L.A. should be a contending team for years to come, giving the Dodgers even more flexibility in picking and choosing how they’ll construct their 2025 roster.

Re-signing Hernandez would bring another big bat back into the lineup and check off the left field question mark in one fell swoop.  Though the slugger is entering his age-32 season, he is also coming off one of the best years of his nine MLB seasons, and he further showed his value with a big playoff performance.  On the flip side, Hernandez would surely reject a qualifying offer, putting the Dodgers in line for a compensatory draft pick if Hernandez signed elsewhere.  If Los Angeles wanted to give Andy Pages more playing time in left field or perhaps keep the position open for another outfielder (even a big name like Juan Soto), the Dodgers could opt to walk away from Hernandez and just view their one-year alliance as a total win for both parties.

Both Hernandez and Flaherty were looking to bounce back after shaky 2024 seasons, and Flaherty likewise answered some critics by posting a 3.17 ERA across 162 combined regular-season innings with the Tigers and Dodgers.  The right-hander’s postseason performance was a lot more inconsistent, yet Flaherty was important simply because he was a proper starting pitcher within the injury-ravaged Dodgers’ staff.  On paper, most of Los Angeles’ injured pitchers will be ready to go by Opening Day 2025, yet the team will surely look to solidify this group with at least one other starter to provide some durability as well as quality innings.

Clayton Kershaw is one of those pitchers with a murky health status, as the longtime Dodger ace is set to undergo a pair of surgeries on his left knee and toe.  Kershaw pitched only 30 regular-season innings in 2024 due to bone spurs in his toe, his recovery from a shoulder surgery from last November, and this heretofore unknown torn meniscus in his left knee.

The southpaw has already said he is planning to pitch in 2025, and reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that “I’ll be back, somehow” for an 18th season with the Dodgers.  This might not necessarily come to pass, however, just by Kershaw exercising his $10MM player option for 2025, as Kershaw might also look to work out a new contract with L.A. that would presumably give both gives some flexibility for the future.  Several of the Dodgers’ extensions in recent years have involved tacking an extra option year or two onto a shorter-term deal, so it seems quite possible the club could again explore such a contract with Kershaw.

In other Dodger news, the end of the playoffs also acts as the time when players traditionally come clean about any hidden injuries they’ve been playing through in October.  It was already known that Freddie Freeman was playing despite an ankle sprain and bone bruise, yet ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that Freeman also suffered broken costal cartilage in his rib while taking batting practice just prior to the start of the Dodgers’ NLDS matchup with the Padres.

The first baseman still played in four of the five games in that series as well as four of the Dodgers’ six NLCS games with the Mets, though Freeman was hitting only .219/.242/.219 in his first 33 playoff plate appearances.  The four days’ off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series provided Freeman with a chance to fully rest and reset, and he somewhat miraculously felt much better heading into Game 1, when he kicked off his World Series MVP performance.

He missed time this year due to bone spurs in his left big toe, but the problems evidently go beyond that, as he also has a ruptured plantar plate. The knee surgery will be to correct a torn meniscus. Details were relayed by various reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (X links). His return timeline is unclear at this point.

Kershaw, 37 in March, has a legendary career but his most recent seasons have been defined by his health issues. Due to various ailments, he hasn’t tossed 135 innings in a season since 2019.

It was almost exactly a year ago, on November 3 of 2023, that the lefty announced he had undergone shoulder surgery. Since that procedure was going to keep him out until midseason, he and the Dodgers reunited on a deal that reflected his health status.

It was technically a two-year deal, with Kershaw guaranteed $5MM in both 2024 and 2025 but with the second season being a player option. The deal also included a number of incentives that would allow Kershaw to increase both the value of his 2024 salary and 2025 player option based on games started.

As he attempted to return to the club this summer, he was slowed by some shoulder soreness during his rehab, getting reinstated in late July. In just over a month on the roster, Kershaw made seven starts with a 4.50 earned run average before landing on the injured list due to the aforementioned bone spurs in his toe.

He attempted to get back into game shape as the season was winding down but wasn’t successful. Today’s news provides a bit more clarity on what exactly Kershaw was up against while trying to get back on the field.

By making seven starts this year, Kershaw unlocked escalators worth $5MM on his 2025 option, bringing the value to $10MM. Though he’s set for another offseason of surgery and rehab, he reiterated today that he plans on coming back next year.

He could do that simply by triggering the $10MM option, or perhaps he and the club will negotiate some new pact. His recent free agent trips have been characterized as him essentially deciding between returning to the Dodgers versus signing with his hometown Texas Rangers. During today’s celebrations, Kershaw seemed to erase any mystery about which jersey he would be wearing next year. He declared himself a “Dodger for life,” per Ardaya on X.

Whenever he returns, he will slot into a Dodger rotation that currently projects to include Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Landon Knack and others.. Guys like Emmet Sheehan, River Ryan or Kyle Hurt could factor in once they recover from their Tommy John surgeries. The Dodgers will also likely make offseason moves that alter their rotation picture, either via free agency or trade.

Referring to the shoulder procedure he underwent last November, Kershaw said “I want to make use of this surgery, you know?  I don’t want to have surgery and shut it down.  So I’m gonna come back next year and give it a go and see how it goes.”  While he referred to his bone spurs as “some tough luck,” Kershaw said that otherwise, “my shoulder and elbow, everything, my arm, feels great.”

Injuries have been an omnipresent part of Kershaw’s story for the last several seasons, and he has openly considered retirement before eventually deciding to keep pitching in general, and keep pitching for the Dodgers.  With a 4.50 ERA over his 30 frames in his age-36 season, this marked the first time Kershaw showed any decline in performance amidst his health concerns — while limited to 258 innings over the 2022-23 seasons, Kershaw still had a 2.37 ERA and was an All-Star in both campaigns.

Kershaw didn’t give any hint as to whether or not another surgery might be required to address his bone spurs, though that might seem the logical course of action for what has seemingly been a longer-term issue.  (Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts said in August that Kershaw had been dealing with the bone spurs for multiple years.)  Until we know if such a procedure is even required or not, it’s too soon to say if Kershaw might be fully ready to go when the Dodgers start their Spring Training camp in February.  His shoulder rehab delayed his 2024 debut until July 25.

While rehabbing from the shoulder surgery, Kershaw delayed his next contract until February 2024, when he rejoined the Dodgers on a two-year, $10MM guarantee.  The contract is specifically a $5MM deal for the 2024 season and then a minimum $5MM player option for 2025 that Kershaw will presumably exercise.  As per the terms of the contract, Kershaw earned an extra $2.5MM in 2024 salary, and an extra $5MM on his player option, so he’ll now bank another $10MM by picking up his player option.  It is possible Kershaw and the Dodgers could work out an extension of some kind to lock in that salary and tack on another option for 2026, to give both sides flexibility should Kershaw want to keep pitching for yet another season.

Though Kershaw could still find himself with a World Series ring in a few weeks’ time, it isn’t surprising that he isn’t considering ending his career on the low note of a 30-inning season.  He even had a 2.63 ERA in his first five starts before allowing eight runs over his last six innings pitched, presumably when the returned discomfort from his toe started to impact his performance.  If Kershaw can remain as healthy as possible for a 37-year-old pitcher with his injury history, it isn’t hard to imagine that he can still deliver quality production.

After struggling through a mountain of pitching injuries this season, the Dodgers technically have a full staff worth of options for 2025, even if every available arm has some degree of health concerns.  As noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman stated over the weekend that the team may use a six-man rotation in order to help keep everyone healthy, and to provide more rest for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto specifically.  Ohtani didn’t pitch in 2024 due to UCL surgery and naturally has the added workload of his DH duties, while the Dodgers have been keeping Yamamoto on the Japan-like schedule of pitching with at least five days of rest.

Between that duo and Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow missed the end of the season and the playoffs due to an elbow strain, Tony Gonsolin didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from a Tommy John surgery, and Dustin May didn’t pitch in 2024 due to recoveries from a pair of arm procedures in July 2023 and then a throat surgery in July of this year.  Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and prospect Jackson Ferris are other arms that figure to be part of the rotation mix.  It also stands to reason that L.A. will surely add another pitcher or two this offseason to help safeguard this group against any further injury hits.

3:33pm: The Dodgers are scheduled to begin Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres later this evening, and among the pitchers notably absent from their roster for the series is veteran southpaw Clayton Kershaw. That’s not a surprise given that he was previously said to be targeting a return sometime in mid-October, but today manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers will actually be without Kershaw for the entire postseason. Plunkett adds that, according to Roberts, the bone spurs in Kershaw’s big toe have not improved since he went on the IL back in August, adding that things may actually have worsened since then.

The news officially brings to an end an injury-plagues season for Kershaw, who leaves the 2024 campaign behind with a 4.50 ERA (87 ERA+) and 3.87 FIP in 30 innings of work across seven starts while striking out just 18% of opponents. That’s by far the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the first time his ERA+ has been below average since his rookie campaign back in 2008, when his 98 ERA+ came in just a hair below average. While low walk and home run rates help to salvage some of Kershaw’s peripheral numbers, 2024 will nonetheless go down as the worst season of the veteran’s career to this point, though given the small sample its difficult to draw conclusion about his ability when healthy enough to take the mound.

Kershaw holds a $10MM player option for the 2025 season, though after occasionally contemplating retirement over the past few offseasons it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll exercise that option or wait to decide on his future until later in the winter. Should he decide to continue his career into 2025, the future Hall of Famer will surely be welcomed back by the only team he’s ever known during an offseason where the club is sure to pursue rotation additions with only Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Gavin Stone locked into the 2025 starting rotation alongside Shohei Ohtani, whose return to the mound will likely necessitate moving to a six-man staff.

In the meantime, however, the Dodgers will need to piece together production from a rotation that offers little certainty outside of Yamamoto and deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty throughout the postseason. A struggling Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) and rookie Landon Knack (3.65 ERA in 69 frames this year) stand as the club’s most likely starting options to fill out the rotation behind Yamamoto and Flaherty, who are set to start Games 1 and 2 respectively.

Aside from Kershaw, right-hander Joe Kelly was also left off the club’s NLDS roster. It was a difficult year for Kelly, who allowed a 4.78 ERA across 35 relief appearances while battling injuries. That includes a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the final weeks of the season, and Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that the veteran right-hander won’t be available until at least the World Series after tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game this week. Without Kelly in the fold, the Dodgers figure to rookie Edgardo Henriquez to fill out their bullpen for the NLDS.

Roberts said earlier in the week that the three-time Cy Young winner was in a “holding pattern” on his rehab. That didn’t bode well for his availability for the start of the playoffs. That’s a lock now. The Dodgers would clinch the NL West and a first-round bye with a win over the Padres tonight. Assuming they wrap up the division — either tonight or during their weekend series in Colorado — they’ll punch their ticket to a Division Series beginning next weekend.

Kershaw clearly isn’t going to be ready by that point. The NLCS begins on October 13. Roberts’ timeline leaves open the possibility of Kershaw returning for that series if the Dodgers get there, but it’s far from guaranteed. The Dodgers have already ruled out Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone through the entire postseason. Kershaw’s return seems questionable at best.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty will take the ball in some order for the first two games of the postseason. Rookie righty Landon Knack probably lines up as L.A.’s Game 3 starter. The Dodgers haven’t managed to get Walker Buehler on track, while Bobby Miller pitched so poorly that he was optioned back to Triple-A a few weeks ago.

Kershaw’s regular season concludes with a 4.50 ERA over 30 innings. He didn’t make his season debut until shortly after the All-Star Break as he completed rehab from last November’s shoulder surgery. He made seven starts. That’s significant from a contractual perspective. Kershaw’s two-year, $10MM deal contained a ton of incentives. He tacked on $2.5MM to this year’s $5MM base salary. Getting to seven starts also added $5MM in escalators to next year’s player option. That option was initially valued at $5MM but will land at $10MM; Kershaw could boost that as high as $25MM if he makes 25 starts next year.

The Dodgers provided a few additional injury updates this evening. Miguel Rojas, who left last night’s game, said that he’s been diagnosed with a partially torn left adductor (groin) muscle (X link via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). The veteran infielder said he’ll need to undergo surgery in the offseason but believes he’ll be able to play through it during the postseason. Rojas has emerged as Roberts’ starting shortstop thanks to his defensive reliability and a solid .283/.337/.410 showing at the plate. He won’t play tonight. Tommy Edman moves in to play shortstop while Andy Pages steps into the lineup in center field.

The bullpen is also taking a hit. Roberts said that righty Brusdar Graterol is going back on the 15-day injured list due to shoulder inflammation (via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Graterol has battled shoulder problems dating back to Spring Training. He also lost a few weeks late in the year to a hamstring strain. The hard-throwing sinkerballer has been limited to seven appearances, during which he has thrown 7 2/3 frames of two-run ball. Graterol was one of the best relievers in MLB last year, turning in a 1.20 ERA across 67 1/3 frames.

Stone landed on the IL September 6 due to right shoulder inflammation. The plan was for him to be shut down for about ten days, at which point the club would decide on a path forward based on how he felt. It seems that not much progress has been made and so the path back to the club has narrowed.

Prior to this injury, Stone was the most reliable member of a rotation that had suffered a great number of injuries. He tossed 140 1/3 innings over 25 starts, with both of those figures still leading the team. The only player close to him in those categories is Tyler Glasnow, who is also unlikely to come back this year, so Stone will finish 2024 as the team leader in those two categories. He had a 3.53 earned run average in that time as well as a 20% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate.

The health of the Dodger rotation, or lack thereof, has been an ongoing story throughout the year. Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan each required season-ending surgeries earlier in the campaign. As mentioned, Stone and Glasnow are both on the IL and unlikely to be healthy before the season’s done. Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw are also on the IL but still could contribute in the coming weeks. More on them below.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto also missed about three months due to a rotator cuff strain, though he is now back on the active roster. That’s a bit of positive news amid all the negative stuff, though there are questions there as well. Yamamoto returned before being fully stretched out and has only thrown four innings in each of his two outings since coming back. The kid gloves are apparently going to stay on, as Roberts said the club will continue to give him more than four days of rest between starts for the rest of the season and maybe into the playoffs as well, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times on X.

Around Yamamoto, the rest of the rotation has recently consisted of Jack Flaherty, Landon Knack, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Miller has an 8.52 ERA on the year and is being optioned today, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on X, Miller’s second optional assignment of the year. Buehler has also struggled, with a 5.54 ERA on the year. Knack has a strong 3.70 ERA but in just 56 career innings at the major league level. Flaherty is having a great year but there are some health concerns with him as well, as he had back problems with the Tigers that reportedly scuttled a deal to the Yankees before the Dodgers acquired him instead.

Whether the Dodgers will replace Miller in the rotation or simply use bullpen games to finish the year remains to be seen. They are off on Monday, which could perhaps help them get by with just four starters, though Yamamoto’s restrictions complicate things. The club is a virtual lock for the postseason but the remaining games on the schedule are still meaningful. They are only 3.5 games up on the Padres in the West and only two games ahead of the Brewers for the second bye through the Wild Card round, with the Phillies currently holding the top spot.

Even if the Dodgers are able to cruise into a first-round bye, building a playoff rotation is going to be a concern. Perhaps Gonsolin or Kershaw could help out, depending on how things develop over the next few weeks. Kershaw has been on the IL since late May due to a bone spur in his left big toe. He threw an 84-pitch bullpen session today, per Gonzalez on X, which is perhaps a good sign that he could still be a factor soon but the next steps aren’t clear.

As for Gonsolin, he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year and is currently on a rehab assignment. His first outing lasted two innings and the second went 2 2/3. Per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Roberts says Gonsolin will try to get through four innings in his next outing and then the club will talk about where to go from there. “It’s still a longer shot,” Robert said. “But I’m really impressed that Tony has taken this really seriously as a potential opportunity. He’s gonna take another one, and we’ll see from there.”

There are lots of moving parts and the club still has a chance to have a solid rotation consisting of Yamamoto and Flaherty with perhaps some combination of Knack, Buehler, Kershaw or Gonsolin in behind the front two. There even seems to be some non-zero chance that Shohei Ohtani takes a mound before the season is done, though that still seems like a real long shot.

The club and its fans know very well that a flimsy rotation can sink an otherwise strong season. Just last year, the Dodgers won 100 games but were quickly swept out of the playoffs by the Diamondbacks when injuries reduced their postseason rotation to Miller, Lance Lynn and an obviously-injured Kershaw. That will make their swirling rotation a key storyline in the coming weeks.

Even in the best-case scenario of a clean MRI, there’s still plenty of uncertainty over what this setback means for Glasnow’s chances of a return.  The regular season ends just over two weeks’ time, and while the Dodgers are a virtual lock to make the playoffs, it is far from a certainty whether or not Glasnow will be fully healthy and ramped up in time to join a postseason roster.  The minor league season ends next weekend and it therefore seems unlikely Glasnow will be ready for a rehab assignment, so he’d have to rely on simulated games or other types of prep work that don’t involve a proper in-game setting.

Elbow tendinitis has kept Glasnow from pitching since August 11, cutting short a quality season that had seen the right-hander post a 3.49 ERA and an outstanding 32.2% strikeout rate over 134 innings.  As Plunkett notes, 109 of those innings came before Glasnow was placed on the 15-day IL in early July due to lower back soreness, and the righty returned from that injury to make four starts before he was sidelined with his elbow issue.

Glasnow’s lengthy injury history is well-documented, and his 134 innings already represents a career high over his nine MLB seasons.  In regards to his elbow specifically, Glasnow had a Tommy John surgery in 2021 that cost him almost all of his 2022 campaign with the Rays, save for two regular-season games and a playoff appearance.  An oblique strain then delayed the start of his 2023 season by two months, but he otherwise stayed healthy and posted a 3.53 ERA in 120 innings for Tampa.  This performance inspired the Dodgers to both acquire Glasnow in a major offseason trade, and also to sign him to a $136.5MM extension that runs through the 2028 season.

In the more immediate term, of course, Los Angeles faces the prospect of not having Glasnow available for his first postseason in Dodger Blue.  Yesterday’s news is an unfortunate continuation of the pitching injuries that have hampered the Dodgers all season, as 17 different pitchers have made at least one start for the club in 2024.

At present, L.A.’s rotation consists of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack.  Beyond Glasnow, Roberts said Gavin Stone (on the IL since August 31 due to right shoulder inflammation) will start a throwing program this weekend but Stone’s timeline is still uncertain.  Tony Gonsolin will make his second minor league rehab start on Sunday he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, though Roberts previously downplayed the chances of Gonsolin returning in time for regular-season work or any playoff availability.  Clayton Kershaw is throwing off a portable mound but is still being bothered by the bone spur in his big left toe.

Given all of the question marks the Dodgers’ pitching staff faces as the postseason approaches, Roberts raised a bit of a stir in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM when he implied there was a slim possibility Shohei Ohtani could pitch in the playoffs.  Ohtani underwent UCL surgery almost exactly one year ago and wasn’t expected to return to pitching until 2025, though he started to throw as part of his established rehab plan.

Roberts revisited the topic in speaking with Plunkett and company yesterday, noting that while “it’s not a zero percent chance” that Ohtani is available to pitch, “the odds of it coming to pass are very slim.”  The Dodgers haven’t yet even talked with Ohtani about pitching in 2024, and Roberts noted that “the conversation would be, ’put it out of your head.’ ”  Obviously the club doesn’t want to do anything that will jeopardize Ohtani’s long-term pitching future, or even do anything that would impact his availability as a hitter for at least this year’s playoffs.

7:55am: Clayton Kershaw threw just 27 pitches in Friday’s start before soreness in his left big toe forced the longtime Dodgers starter out of the game.  Kershaw was charged with three earned runs over one inning of work plus one batter faced in the second frame, as the left-hander left the mound after allowing a home run to Corbin Carroll.

Speaking with reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) after the game, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts explained that Kershaw’s toe discomfort was caused by a bone spur that has been lingering for multiple seasons.  “Some starts it feels fine and it’s not impeding. Today certainly it was,” Roberts said.

Given the longstanding nature of the injury, it isn’t necessarily clear whether or not Kershaw will need to be placed on the 15-day injured list.  Kershaw and Roberts both stated that some testing and evaluation will need to happen before a decision is made, and the Dodgers have some extra time to monitor the situation since Kershaw wasn’t scheduled to pitch until next Friday.  L.A. is expected to call up Justin Wrobleski for a spot start on Sunday, and the team has an off-day on Thursday, giving Kershaw more opportunity to rest.

That said, it obviously wouldn’t be surprising if the Dodgers opted to put Kershaw on the IL even as a precautionary measure.  Kershaw’s lengthy injury history is well-documented, and he didn’t make his 2024 debut until July 25 due to a lengthy recovery from shoulder surgery last November.  The southpaw has posted a 4.50 ERA and only an 18% strikeout rate over 30 innings, and while it isn’t a big sample size, Kershaw’s fastball velocity has dropped to 89.9 mph.

Losing Kershaw to the IL would represent yet another blow to the injury-ravaged Los Angeles rotation.  The Dodgers have still posted an 81-54 record despite having to account for multiple injured arms for the entirety of the season.  Roberts said the team is very likely to make some roster moves today to add fresh arms to a bullpen that had to cover eight innings on Friday, and some extra breathing space will come Sunday when teams expand their rosters from 26 to 28 players.

Adding just relief depth, however, might not provide much help to an L.A. team that still has plenty of questions about its starting staff as the postseason approaches.  Considering the Dodgers’ five-game lead in the NL West, it would take quite a collapse for the club to actually miss the playoffs, yet it certainly seems possible that Los Angeles could have another strong regular season undone by a lack of healthy arms in October.  In terms of reinforcements, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has started a Triple-A rehab assignment and could be back within a couple of weeks, though it isn’t yet clear when Tyler Glasnow could return from a bout of right elbow tendinitis.

Ramírez, 29, came to the Dodgers from the Mets two months ago in a cash deal. He has since tossed 29 1/3 innings for the Dodgers with a 5.52 earned run average. He probably deserved a bit better than the ERA would indicate, as his .337 batting average on balls in play and 63.3% strand rate are both on the unlucky side. His 20.1% strikeout rate is a bit below par but his 8.2% walk rate and 45.3% ground ball rate are close to average. His 4.47 FIP and 3.95 SIERA each point to him actually being a bit better than his ERA would suggest.

Since the righty is out of options, he has bounced around the league this year, as he also spent time with the Orioles and Mets. Between the three clubs, he has 43 2/3 innings with a 22.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, 44.4% ground ball rate, 5.98 ERA, 4.17 FIP and 3.76 SIERA.

It’s now possible that he will end up on his fourth team of the year. The Dodgers will have a week to work out a trade or pass him through waivers, but the waiver process takes 48 hours. That means they have just five days to explore trade talks and the trade deadline is also just five days away at this point.

There figures to be plenty of roster turnover in the coming days thanks to the deadline, with plenty of relievers sure to change hands. It’s possible that some rebuilding clubs will wind up with holes in their bullpens soon and may be interested in grabbing Ramírez to help fill things in for the final few months of the season. Though he is out of options, he can be controlled via arbitration for three seasons beyond this one.

Vanasco, 25, has spent most of the season on optional assignment. He has only thrown two innings at the major league level this year, which were the first two innings of his big league career. He has tossed 23 1/3 innings over 24 Triple-A appearances, allowing 3.47 earned runs per nine. His 24.3% strikeout rate is strong but he has also given out free passes at a huge 18.9% rate. If it weren’t for a 78.5% strand rate, more runs would have crossed the plate, which is why his 5.51 FIP is more than two runs higher than his ERA.

Those control issues undoubtedly contributed to nudging him off the Dodgers’ roster and the club will now have a week to either trade him or pass him through waivers. Once a notable prospect in the Rangers’ system, health issues held him back in recent years. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2020 and missed the entire 2021 season. Despite missing that entire campaign, the Rangers evidently were worried some other club would take him in that year’s Rule 5 draft, so they gave him a 40-man spot.

He showed some rust in his first year back from the surgery layoff, posting a 4.68 ERA in 92 1/3 minor league innings. His 28.9% strikeout rate was strong but he gave out free passes to 12.7% of batters faced. He then required knee surgery in March of last year and missed the start of that season. The Rangers designated him for assignment in May and he was flipped to the Dodgers a few days later.

His stint with his new club went very well, even though he was outrighted off the 40-man roster, as he tossed 30 innings at various levels with a 1.20 ERA and 35% strikeout rate. Perhaps most importantly, he dropped his walk rate down to 8.1%. The Dodgers re-signed him to a major league deal in November but, as mentioned, his control issues have come back this year.

Perhaps some club will be intrigued based on his former prospect status and his ability to strike out minor league hitters. He is in his final option season and can be sent down to the farm for the remainder of this year, though he will be out of options next year.

It’s a pretty big moment for Kershaw, who is coming back from the most significant absence of his career. The southpaw went under the knife in November to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. Though surgeries for pitchers have become quite commonplace in today’s baseball landscape, this was actually the first one for the veteran.

Kershaw was a workhorse earlier in his career but has had some health issues in recent seasons. From 2010 to 2015, he logged at least 198 innings for six straight years but hasn’t hit that number since. Recent years have seen him miss time here and there, often due to back issues, but the shoulder was the big concern in 2023. He somehow managed to toss 131 2/3 innings with a 2.55 earned run average despite his fastball velocity declining throughout the season but then was torched in his lone playoff start, only recording one out against the Diamondbacks while being charged with six earned runs.

The shoulder issue eventually require the aforementioned surgery in November and then he re-signed with the Dodgers in February. The deal is a two-year pact with the second season being a player option. Kershaw has a base salary of just $5MM in both years of the deal but with the ability to earn far more if he’s healthy. He gets an extra $1MM for getting to six starts, $1.5MM each for his seventh, eighth and ninth starts and then $2MM after his tenth. The Dodgers can’t get around this by using an opener, as a relief outing wherein Kershaw records at least nine outs also counts. At this point in the calendar, it’s still possible for Kershaw to unlock all of those bonuses and there are similar escalators for his 2025 option.

He began a rehab assignment by pitching three innings at the Single-A level on June 19. He was then shut down due to some shoulder soreness but Roberts downplayed the significance and Kershaw restarted his rehab assignment again more recently. He tossed three innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City last Saturday and then four innings on Friday, getting up to 67 pitches in the most recent outing. He’s now set to resume a big league career that already includes 2,712 2/3 innings with a 2.48 ERA.

Glasnow’s absence was far more mild, as he landed on the IL prior to the break due to some low back tightness, but the dual returns are significant for the Dodgers as they have had plenty of rotation challenges. Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan are each done for the year, with Tony Gonsolin likely to be in that camp as well. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a rotator cuff strain that landed him on the 60-day IL, meaning he can’t return before mid-August. Bobby Miller struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors while Walker Buehler was ineffective before landing on the IL with a hip issue.

Amid all of those issues, the Dodgers have been using a rotation of veteran James Paxton, rookies Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack, as well as occasional bullpen games. Getting Glasnow and Kershaw into that mix obviously helps, and the club will be promoting prospect River Ryan soon as well.

Though that group is about to be much stronger than it was heading into the All-Star break, the Dodgers are still expected to pursue rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline. They have been connected to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox for weeks now and Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentions the fit again this morning, also adding that the club has interest in Tarik Skubal of the Tigers.

Though the Dodgers’ interest in Crochet has been known for a while, Nightengale adds that the Dodgers have discussed a blockbuster deal that would see them also acquire outfielder Luis Robert Jr. and maybe even reliever Michael Kopech as well. That’s not necessarily a big surprise, as teams usually discuss all kinds of various trade scenarios, with many of them not coming close to fruition.

But that does align with recent comments from president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who suggested the Dodgers would be more focused on impact additions as opposed to marginal upgrades. The club has some holes but is understandably shooting for the stars at this point. They have made the playoffs in 11 straight years now and spent wildly in the offseason, adding Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and others. Making the postseason for a 12th straight year won’t really count as an accomplishment for the club or its fans, so aiming high at the deadline and trying for a World Series seems to be the play.

Crochet would obviously fit the bill since he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this year with a 3.02 ERA and 35.2% strikeout rate through 20 starts. There are some concerns about his workload since he’s already thrown more innings this year than in his entire professional career prior to this campaign, but he should be able to provide an impact even if moved to some kind of relief role down the stretch.

Robert also has some durability concerns as he’s only tallied 100 games in a season once, but that one occurrence was quite impressive. He got into 145 contests for the Sox last year and hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases and provided quality defense in center field. Injuries have been a problem before and have cropped up again this year, as he missed two months due to a right hip flexor strain. But he’s been great in his limited time, with 11 homers and 11 steals in just 45 games. His 32.6% strikeout rate is a career high but his 10.2% walk rate is almost twice his career pace.

He could fit into a Dodger outfield that has seen Mookie Betts move to the infield and then head to the injured list. Teoscar Hernández is having a good year but it’s flimsy apart from that. Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas are doing well overall but most of their damage has come against lefties. Ideally, they would be platooned with Jason Heyward, but Heyward is also on the IL. James Outman is hitting just .153/.250/.258 on the year and was optioned to the minors for a while, only getting recalled when Heyward went on the shelf. Utility players Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández and Cavan Biggio have also struggled.

In addition to their talents, both players would be incredibly attractive due to their financial situations. Crochet is in his first arbitration season but his injury absences have limited him to a salary of $800K this year. He has two arb seasons left after this one and will be in line for a decent raises, but from a very modest base. Robert is making $12.5MM this year, far more than Crochet but still a bargain for a player of his talents. He’ll then make $15MM next year with a pair of $20MM club options after that.

Each player has significant trade value in a vacuum but it would take a massive blockbuster haul for the Dodgers to get both. Their farm system is considered strong but whether a deal can come together or not will depend on what kind of price the Sox are asking for and what other teams are offering. But at 27-73 and with a farm system that isn’t especially well regarded, it makes sense the Sox are considering trading almost anyone and it seems they are doing just that.

Kopech can’t match either Crochet or Robert in terms of huge appeal, but he would have some value in his own right. After some inconsistent results as a starter, the Sox have been using him as their closer this year with some interesting but mixed results. His 5.05 ERA isn’t going to wow anyone and his 12.7% walk rate is concerning, but he has punched out 30.9% of batters faced. He’s only making $3MM this year and can be retained via arbitration for another season after this.

As for Skubal, it’s understandable why the Dodgers or any other club would be interested. He is a Cy Young candidate this year with a 2.41 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. He’s making a modest $2.65MM and has two seasons of club control beyond this one.

But that also makes him plenty appealing to the Tigers and it’s fair to wonder how available he is. The club once seemed buried in the standings but have been hot lately, winning 11 of their last 14 and climbing to within five games of a playoff spot. Getting Skubal away from Detroit was probably going to take a haul even when they were in seller position but it’s probably become more difficult in recent weeks.