Whether or not the Orioles would pick up Perez’s option appeared to be a close call given that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $2.1MM salary for the left-hander in his penultimate trip through arbitration. That comes in slightly lower than the figure Perez will now earn in 2025. It’s possible Baltimore’s own internal view of Perez’s likely arbitration salary came in a touch higher than MLBTR’s, although the Orioles’ decision may be as simple as not wanting to decline the option and risk an arbitration hearing with the southpaw over just $100K.

That there was any sort of decision to be made regarding the option would’ve registered as something of a surprise headed into the 2024 season. Entering this year, Perez had been among the club’s very best relievers over his two years in Baltimore. From 2022 to ’23, Perez dominated to the tune of a 2.43 ERA in 111 innings of work. That fantastic ERA was somewhat belied by higher 3.30 FIP thanks to Perez’s lackluster strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10%) rates over the past two years, but the lefty made up for that by generating grounders at an excellent 56.2% rate.

Unfortunately, Perez took a major step backwards in 2024 when it came to run prevention as his ERA ballooned to 4.53. With that being said, his peripherals remained remarkably similar to his previous successful seasons with the Orioles. His 11.8% walk rate was elevated and his 19.3% strikeout rate was just a tick lower than those previous figures, but the lefty maintained a strong 55.8% groundball rate and wound up with a 3.30 FIP that was identical to his average over the prior two seasons. Of course, it’s worth noting that Perez’s FIP is somewhat deflated by the fact that Perez managed to give up zero home runs during the 2024 campaign. While the lefty has typically been excellent at limiting hard contact throughout his career, it’s worth noting that his homerless season came in spite of a nearly doubled barrel rate relative to 2023.

Overall, Perez seems likely to remain with the Orioles as a solid lefty relief option, though perhaps not one they’ll be interested in offering high leverage duties to until and unless he can bring his strikeout and walk ratios closer to the 23.5% and 9% figures he flashed during his dominant 2022 campaign. The Orioles notably declined their club option on fellow lefty Danny Coulombe today, making Perez all the more valuable as he joins Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto as lefty options in 2025.

Turning to O’Hearn, the decision to pick his option up doesn’t register as much of a surprise given his excellent performance since first donning an Orioles uniform. The 31-year-old just wrapped up his second season with Baltimore and carries an overall slash line of .275/.329/.450 (119 wRC+), though even that slash line may be selling his growth with the club short as he massively improved his plate discipline in 2024. After striking out at a 22.3% clip and walking just 4.1% of the time in 2023, this year O’Hearn took free passes at an excellent 9.3% clip while striking out just 14% of the time. A small step back in the power department meant his wRC+ was largely unchanged from the year prior, but underlying metrics such as xwOBA viewed O’Hearn’s work in 2024 as a substantial improvement over his first season with the club.

As impressive as O’Hearn’s evolution in Baltimore has been, there do remain questions about his fit on the club’s roster entering next year. While Anthony Santander’s likely departure in free agency will open up some playing time in the corner/DH mix, the Orioles have already at times struggled to juggle playing time for O’Hearn and fellow first baseman Ryan Mountcastle when both are healthy in previous seasons. Looking ahead to 2025, they’ll be searching for ways to include Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad in the lineup more regularly, and either player could take up the lion’s share of playing time at DH with Mayo in particular even standing as a possible inclusion in the club’s first base mix as well. A trade of Mountcastle, one of the prospects, or even O’Hearn himself could help to clear up the clubs log jam at the position, and it would hardly be a surprise if the club decided to do so in order to upgrade a rotation facing plenty of questions headed into 2025 following the departure of Corbin Burnes and elbow surgery that will sideline Kyle Bradish for the start of next season.

It’s a somewhat surprising move, if only because Tate hasn’t been optioned to the minors since the 2019 season. The right-hander has been a constant in Baltimore’s bullpen when healthy over the past several seasons, pitching to a combined 3.90 ERA with a sub-par 19% strikeout rate but strong 7.5% walk rate and borderline elite 58.3% ground-ball rate dating back to that 2019 campaign. He’s missed time along the way, including a season-long absence just last year while he battled a flexor strain.

Tate, 29, entered the current season with 4.048 years of big league service time and picked up another 32 days prior to yesterday’s option. He needs to accrue an additional 92 days of service in 2024 to reach five years and remain on track for free agency following the 2025 season. Once he does reach that five-year mark — whenever that may be — he’d also be granted the perk of needing to give his consent to be optioned again in the future.

For now, the O’s can continue to shuttle Tate back and forth if they see fit. He’s gotten out to a solid start in his return effort, pitching to a 2.84 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. Tate’s 12.2% strikeout rate is concerning enough on its own, but when coupled with a matching 12.2% walk rate it’s fair to question how long he can sustain the results he’s generated to date. His 61.1% grounder rate remains outstanding, but Tate’s average sinker velocity is down from 2021’s 95.5 mph peak all the way to 91.9 mph in 2024. Given the concerning K-BB profile and dip in velocity, it’s understandable if the Orioles want him to work on some things in Norfolk. He’d also pitched on consecutive days and was thus likely to be unavailable last night.

Tate’s demotion and Perez’s return shake up what’s been a middle-of-the-pack bullpen overall this season. Baltimore relievers rank 16th in baseball with a 3.88 ERA, although they sit fourth and sixth, respectively, with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. That comes despite the absence of star closer Felix Bautista, who won’t pitch this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. Veteran Craig Kimbrel signed a one-year deal to take over as the closer and has generally pitched well, though he’s run into some troubles of late and is currently day-to-day with back discomfort after exiting his Sunday appearance.

Manager Brandon Hyde said yesterday that Kimbrel was feeling better than on Sunday and that the team remains hopeful he can avoid a trip to the 15-day injured list (X link via MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski). The 35-year-old allowed just one earned run with a scintillating 17-to-2 K/BB ratio in his first 11 innings this season but has given up three runs on three hits and four walks over his last two appearances — all while recording only two outs. Kimbrel’s velocity held strong, but it’s clear he was struggling with his command over those two outings — quite possibly due to the current back ailment he’s facing. Time will tell whether the O’s make an IL move, but to this point that doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

One other topic weighing on the minds of Orioles fans at the moment is when top prospect Connor Norby might get his first look in the big leagues. Many thought that might’ve been the corresponding move when Jackson Holliday was optioned after his early struggles, but Baltimore instead brought back outfielder Ryan McKenna, who’s also been getting some infield work at second base to expand his versatility.

Norby may not have gotten the call just yet, but “his time is coming,” general manager Mike Elias tells Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun. Elias notes that Norby, a 2021 second-rounder who’s been ranked among the sport’s top-100 prospects in the past, is still working to refine his defensive skills at both second base and in the outfield corners — the latter of which is newer to his skill set. The O’s played Norby in left field for just 58 innings in 2022 but ramped him up to a combined 258 innings between the outfield corners last season. He’s already logged 144 innings of outfield work this season, compared to just 69 at second base.

Elias didn’t place a specific timetable on Norby’s potential ascension to the big leagues. However, the 23-year-old is out to a nice .274/.346/.487 slash this season in Norfolk, having connected on six homers and six doubles to go along with a pair of steals. This year’s 29.1% strikeout rate is a bit concerning and possibly another contributing factor to Norby remaining in the minors; he fanned at just a 21.6% clip in 633 plate appearances there last season. Meyer chatted with both Elias and Norby’s former (and presumably future) teammate Colton Cowser about the promising prospect’s work ethic and long-term outlook, which O’s fans will want to check out in full.

Means would likely have found himself on some kind of innings limit after throwing 31 2/3 combined frames between 2022-23. With that in mind, the O’s opted against pushing him this spring. The 2019 All-Star has started five games at Triple-A Norfolk on a rehab stint. The results have not been good, as he’s allowed 18 runs over 11 2/3 innings. The O’s probably aren’t especially concerned, though, as the southpaw’s primary focus has been building his workload. He got to 79 pitches over 4 1/3 innings on Tuesday.

If Baltimore decides to give Means one more rehab appearance, righty Albert Suárez would likely take the ball on Sunday. The 34-year-old has twirled 11 1/3 scoreless innings in two starts since the O’s selected his contract last week. Suárez couldn’t have asked for much better in his return to the big leagues for the first time in seven years. Whether it’ll be enough to hold a roster spot once Means is ready isn’t clear, but Suárez has outpitched fellow back-end arms Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin in a very limited look.

Despite the long layoff between his big league appearances, Suárez is out of options. Baltimore can’t send him back to Norfolk without first exposing him to waivers. Irvin is also out of options, but the O’s could theoretically send Kremer down if they want to ensure all three pitchers stay in the organization.

They could also nudge one of those players to the bullpen. Baltimore’s roster flexibility is limited in that regard as well, though. Five of the eight current members of their bullpen — Craig Kimbrel, Danny Coulombe, Mike Baumann, Jacob Webb and recent trade pickup Yohan Ramírez — can’t be sent down. Neither Yennier Cano nor Keegan Akin are going to be optioned. Unless the O’s were to option grounder specialist Dillon Tate, they could soon need to DFA one of their out-of-options arms.

That might happen once lefty Cionel Pérez returns to the big league club. He landed on the 15-day IL with a moderate oblique strain shortly after Opening Day. The Orioles sent him to Norfolk on a rehab stint yesterday, suggesting he’ll be back in the next week or two. Pérez, who is also out of options, turned in a 3.54 ERA behind a massive 60.7% ground-ball percentage over 53 1/3 innings last season.

The news out of Norfolk isn’t all injury related. Ryan McKenna was assigned outright after clearing waivers at the start of the regular season. Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner tweets that the career-long outfielder has started taking reps at second base in an effort to expand his defensive flexibility. While McKenna has not appeared there in a game yet, successfully acclimating to the infield could give him a better chance of cracking a loaded Baltimore bench at some point during the season.

Perez faced only two batters during an appearance in yesterday’s 13-4 Orioles win over the Angels.  The lefty allowed a triple and a single before being removed with that was initially described as back discomfort, though the designation of an oblique strain creates more uncertainty about when Perez might be able to return.  Unless Perez has a very mild strain, oblique issues usually sideline players for at least 3-4 weeks, and often longer if the strains are of the Grade 2 category or higher.

Danny Coulombe and Keegan Akin are the other left-handed options in Baltimore’s pen, so the O’s should be able to manage the balance until Perez is able to return.  Coulombe is ticketed for more higher-leverage work in general, leaving Akin as the current top choice for perhaps more specialized work against left-handed batters.  Nick Vespi and Matt Krook are both on the 40-man roster and could be recalled if the Orioles feel more southpaw depth is required.

After posting a 6.04 ERA over his first 50 2/3 innings in the majors, Perez unexpected broke out after joining the O’s in 2022.  The lefty delivered a 1.40 ERA over 57 2/3 frames that season, even if his 3.48 SIERA was perhaps a better reflection of his overall performance.  Some regression hit in the form of a 3.54 ERA in 53 1/3 innings for Perez in 2023, and both his strikeout and walk rates were rather unimpressive.

Perez is a grounder specialist (54.7% career groundball rate) who has held left-handed batters to a .207/.305/.304 slash line during his time in the majors.  Perez has seemingly erased the home run problems that plagued him earlier in his career, as he has allowed just four homers over 111 innings with the Orioles.  He avoided arbitration with the club this winter by agreeing to a $1.2MM salary for 2024, and the O’s also hold a $2.2MM club option on his services for 2025.

January 22: The Orioles announced Monday that they’ve avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever Cionel Perez. The Octagon client agreed to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season. Since Perez is under team control for three more years, he’d remain an Oriole (and be arbitration-eligible once again) even if the team declines the 2025 option. Perez had filed at a $1.4MM salary, with the team countering at $1.1MM. Today’s agreement will be somewhere between those two sums and will avoid a potentially contentious hearing.

Like most clubs throughout the sport, Baltimore has taken a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration in recent years. That is to say, once the team and player have exchanged numbers and filed those respective figures with the league, talks on a straight one-year deal are cut off. However, multi-year deals and one-year pacts that contain options are still on the table for discussion.

To many, it seems an odd line to draw on the surface. But one-year deals containing club or mutual options are not considered “one-year” contracts in arbitration — at least not in the sense that they’re considered relevant data points in future arbitration cases. Because of that, even file-and-trial clubs will generally discuss them, considering those deals more akin to multi-year pacts that don’t have long-term ramifications in a process where salaries are determined based overwhelmingly on prior, comparable one-year agreements.

Perez, 27, has had a breakout showing in Baltimore over the past two seasons after being plucked off waivers from the Reds in November 2021. The southpaw has made 131 appearances for the O’s and turned in a terrific 2.43 earned run average in 111 innings, picking up four saves and 35 holds along the way. Perez took a step back in ’23, as his ERA spiked from 1.40 to 3.54 while his strikeout and walk rates both trended in the wrong direction (23.5% and 9%, respectively, in 2022; 17.8% and 10.9% in 2023). Even with those red flags, Perez’s fastball velocity held at nearly 97 mph on average, he remained one of the toughest pitchers to take out of the ballpark (0.32 HR/9), and his 60.9% ground-ball rate was elite.

Perez will likely join fellow lefties Danny Coulombe and DL Hall in what should once again be a very strong Baltimore bullpen. There’s no compensating for the loss of All-Star closer Felix Bautista, who had Tommy John surgery in October, but the team’s hope is that by signing Craig Kimbrel to join Perez, Coulombe, Hall, All-Star setup man Yennier Cano and potentially right-hander Tyler Wells (if he’s not back in the rotation), the bullpen will again be quite formidable.

With Perez’s case now settled, the Orioles still have four players whose arbitration status remains up in the air. The O’s also exchanged figures with outfielder Austin Hays ($6.35MM vs. $5.85MM), first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn ($3.8MM vs. $3.2MM), Coulombe ($2.4MM vs. $2.2MM) and righty Jacob Webb ($1MM vs. $925K).

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

• Taylor Ward: $4.8MM in desired salary….Angels offered $4.3MM (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand)
• Jose Suarez: $1.35MM….Angels $925K (via Feinsand)
• Mauricio Dubon: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM (via Feinsand)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $19.9MM….Blue Jays $18.05MM (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet)
• Tommy Edman: $6.95MM….Cardinals $6.5MM (via Feinsand)
• J.D. Davis: $6.9MM….Giants $6.55MM (via Feinsand)
• Luis Arraez: $12MM….Marlins $10.6MM (via Feinsand)
• Tanner Scott: $5.7MM….Marlins $5.15MM (via Feinsand)
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $2.9MM….Marlins $2.625MM (via Feinsand)
• Phil Bickford: $900K….Mets $815K (via Feinsand)
• Austin Hays: $6.3MM….Orioles $5.85MM (via Feinsand)
• Ryan O’Hearn: $3.8MM….Orioles $3.2MM (via Feinsand)
• Danny Coulombe: $2.4MM….Orioles $2.2MM (via Feinsand)
• Cionel Perez: $1.4MM….Orioles $1.1MM (via Feinsand)
• Jacob Webb: $1MM….Orioles $925K (via Feinsand)
• Alec Bohm: $4MM….Phillies $3.4MM (via Feinsand)
• Adolis Garcia: $6.9MM….Rangers $5MM (via Feinsand)
• Harold Ramirez: $4.3MM….Rays $3.8MM (via Feinsand)
• Jason Adam: $3.25MM….Rays $2.7MM (via Feinsand)
• Jonathan India: $4MM….Reds $3.2MM (via The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer)
• Casey Mize: $840K….Tigers $815K (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic)
• Nick Gordon: $1.25MM….Twins $900K (via Feinsand)

At the time, it wasn’t wholly clear whether either would even survive the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Perez was out of minor league options, so he’d have to win a big league spot during Spring Training or else be subjected to waivers a second time. It’s not at all uncommon for fringe 40-man players in that spot to eventually be designated for assignment when a team signs a free agent, acquires an established player via trade, or claims someone else on waivers.

Fortunately for the O’s, both Perez and Baker indeed survived the winter on their 40-man roster. Perez fired six shutout innings with just three hits and two walks against seven strikeouts during the truncated Spring Training. Baker tossed four innings of one-run ball. Both found their way onto the Opening Day roster. Prior to this year, Perez had pitched to a 6.04 ERA in 50 2/3 MLB innings, including a 6.38 mark in 2021. Baker had one MLB inning to his name.

Before long, Perez found himself building a strong start to his 2022 season, however, solidifying his hold on a place in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen. He opened the year with 9 2/3 shutout frames, and while an 8-to-4 K/BB ratio along the way was a bit less impressive, he followed that strong first month with seven more innings of one-run ball and an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio. By the time the Orioles’ game on June 1 drew to a close, Perez had pitched 16 2/3 innings with a 0.55 ERA, a 25.8% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate and a 51.2% ground-ball rate.

Along the way, Perez increasingly began to incorporate a new pitch into his repertoire: a power sinker that averaged a hearty 96.6 mph. He’d never thrown a sinker in a Major League game before, and Perez used the offering sporadically through the season’s first three months, only flashing it 9.6% of the time. In mid-July, however, Perez committed to the pitch more decisively, and from July 16 through season’s end he used that new sinker at a 22.4% clip. His four-seamer, which he’d previously thrown 52.4% of the time, saw its usage rate dip to 36.9%.

Perez posted a sparkling ERA both pre-sinker and post-sinker, but the secondary numbers suggest that Perez’s success with the sinker was more sustainable than without. Once he leaned more heavily into the new pitch, he fanned 25.2% of his opponents, walked 9.0% of them, induced grounders at a 52.8% rate and yielded an 88.2 mph average exit velocity. Prior, those rates were 22%, 8.9%, 50% and 89.6 mph. The gains weren’t Earth-shattering, but Perez’s results were better once he gained more comfort with his new pitch. Seventy percent of the sinkers that were put into play against Perez were grounders.

Good as Perez was in 2022, there’s likely some regression in store. His .284 average on balls in play isn’t especially fortunate, but few pitchers can sustain marks as low as Perez’s 0.31 HR/9 and 4.3% homer-to-flyball ratio. He’s also unlikely to continue stranding 87.4% of his runners moving forward — a rate that ranked ninth in MLB (min. 50 innings) behind a collection of some of the game’s most proficient strikeout artists. Still, there’s not much about his 2022 season that portends a complete implosion next year.

Baker took the opposite route of Perez, getting hit hard and hit often early in his first extended look at the MLB level. Through June 19, he’d been tagged for a grisly 5.60 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of bullpen work. The O’s opted to stick with him rather than option him to Triple-A, however, and they’re likely quite glad they did.

Baker threw his changeup less than 10% of the time in those first two-plus months but more than doubled his usage to 21.4% from late June through season’s end. Meanwhile, he continued to up his fastball velocity, averaging 97.3 mph over the final few months after sitting just 95.2 mph through his first 27 1/3 innings. From June 24 through season’s end, Baker posted a 2.13 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

It’s an open question whether he can sustain the velocity gains he picked up during the season, but his changeup was a devastating out pitch for him down the stretch. Baker finished off 48 plate appearances with a changeup in 2022, surrendering only two hits (both singles) and racking up 25 strikeouts in the process. Statcast credits him with a hearty 37.7% whiff rate on the pitch and gives his opponents credit for an expected wOBA of just .123. Hitters averaged just 83.1 mph off the bat when they put Baker’s changeup in play — with 55% of those batted balls taking the form of grounders.

Neither Perez nor Baker will draw the fanfare of up-and-coming Baltimore stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but that doesn’t mean they can’t fill key roles as the team looks to continue its emergence from an arduous rebuild. Perez is controllable for another four seasons, and Baker can be controlled for five more years. There’s some obvious volatility when it comes to year-over-year performance with relievers, so perhaps Perez and/or Baker will come crashing back to Earth at some point. For now, however, the O’s have what looks like a pair of setup men they acquired for free — a quality lefty/righty combo that’ll help to form a bridge to fellow out-of-the-blue breakout Felix Bautista.

Keep in mind that this is the same Orioles team that traded another waiver wire All-Star, Jorge Lopez, prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Building quality bullpens has proven to be an Achilles heel for countless front offices, but at least for the 2022 season, the O’s made it look downright easy. Their ability to continue doing so could well be as important to turning the tide as the arrival of many of the system’s vaunted top prospects.

Perez, 25, was a prominent international signing out of Cuba by the Astros back in 2016, when current Orioles GM Mike Elias was an assistant GM in Houston. Cincinnati acquired him from Houston this past January, and he went on to tally 24 big league innings with a 6.38 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate, an 18.6% walk rate and a 51.5% ground-ball rate at the MLB level. In 50 2/3 innings between the Reds and the Astros, Perez has a 6.04 ERA.

While he’s worked exclusively as a reliever in the Majors, Perez has split his time between the rotation and the bullpen in the minors. He has a 4.46 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate in 82 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball, and although that walk rate is rather bloated, Perez’s 52% grounder rate in Triple-A is strong. He was particularly sharp in Triple-A Louisville this past season, notching a 3.26 ERA and 41-to-13 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings of relief.

Perez is out of minor league options, so if he makes it through the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster, have to either break camp with the Orioles or else be exposed to waivers a second time.

Though the timing works out for Miley to make one more start before the season is over, it seems possible that the veteran lefty has thrown his last pitch of the 2021 season.  The Reds will need at least one replacement for Miley’s rotation spot in the short term, as Miley had been scheduled to start Monday’s game against the Pirates.

Miley has an 8.35 ERA over four starts and 18 1/3 innings in September, putting a sour finish on what has otherwise been a very solid season for the 34-year-old.  Miley has 3.37 ERA over 163 frames for Cincinnati, with a 49.4% grounder rate and an above-average walk rate to go along with a lot of soft contact.  Never a big strikeout pitcher, Miley has only an 18.1% strikeout rate this year, just about matching his career average.

After signing a two-year, $15MM free agent deal back in December 2019, Miley barely pitched in his first year with the Reds, as shoulder and groin injuries limited him to 14 1/3 innings in 2020.  This season’s nice bounce-back effort will now greatly increase the chances of Miley remaining in Cincinnati next year, as the Reds hold a $10MM club option ($1MM) buyout on Miley’s services for the 2022 campaign.

JUNE 26: The Reds announced that right-hander Tejay Antone has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a right forearm strain.  Left-hander Cionel Perez was recalled from Triple-A Louisville in the corresponding move.

Antone only just returned earlier this week from an 11-day stint on the injured list due to inflammation in that same forearm.  It certainly isn’t a good sign that the righty is so quickly headed back to the IL with what looks like an even more serious forearm issue, especially since Antone already has a Tommy John surgery in his health history.  It certainly looks like Antone will miss more than just a minimal amount of time with his latest injury, as the Reds will want to be as cautious as possible in avoiding any more serious damage.

In part because of that earlier TJ procedure that wiped out his 2017 season, Antone didn’t make his Major League debut until 2020, but he has made up for lost time with some impressive numbers.  Over 69 innings in the big leagues, Antone has a 2.22 ERA/3.32 SIERA, 32.5% strikeout rate, and 48% grounder rate.  While a .194 BABIP has helped minimize the damage from all those ground balls, Antone also isn’t allowing much hard contact.

There was some speculation in Spring Training that Antone could win a rotation job, though a minor hip injury scuttled that idea and placed him in the Reds’ bullpen.  It ended up working out for the best, given that Antone has been more or less the only consistent arm in a very shaky Cincinnati relief corps.  Even with Antone’ s 1.60 ERA over 33 2/3 relief innings this season, the Reds bullpen ranks last in the majors in ERA.  Assuming Antone misses a noteworthy amount of time recovering from this forearm strain, it will put even more pressure on the Reds’ front office to land some bullpen help before the July 30 trade deadline.

Miley has been out just the minimum amount of time because of a foot sprain. His last two outings were his shortest of the season coming on the heels of no-hitting the Indians on May 7th. The veteran lefty has a 3.50 ERA/3.20 FIP in eight starts this season totaling 43 2/3 innings.

Perez has struggled through 17 appearances. The former Astro currently owns a 7.47 ERA/5.99 FIP in 15 2/3 innings of work. Control has been a problem for Perez with an untenable 20.5 percent walk rate. Amir Garrett and Sean Doolittle are the only southpaws left in the Reds’ bullpen.

Hembree, 32, has spent the vast majority of his career with the Red Sox, for whom he pitched from 2014-20. In parts of seven seasons with Boston, the righty pitched to a 3.70 ERA with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and an 8.6 percent walk rate. The Red Sox traded him and former teammate Brandon Workman to the Phillies prior to the 2020 trade deadline as part of the deal that sent Nick Pivetta to Boston. Hembree’s time in Philadelphia didn’t go well, however, as was the case for just about every Phillies reliever in 2020. In 9 1/3 innings, he was clobbered for 13 runs on the strength of an alarming seven homers.

That ugly showing notwithstanding, Hembree has a solid track record in the big leagues and enjoyed better results in Spring Training, when he allowed just one run in 7 2/3 frames. The six walks he issued in that time were still an eyesore, but while his control has never been elite, Hembree’s career walk rate has hovered around the league average.

As for the 26-year-old Hendrix, he was Cincinnati’s fifth-round pick back in 2016 and ranked among the organization’s top 30 prospects from 2018-20, per Baseball America. He’s yet to pitch in Triple-A thanks to last year’s lack of a minor league season, but Hendrix has had success at each minor league stop he’s made. Through 172 2/3 frames in the minors, he’s logged a combined 2.55 ERA with an excellent 32.2 percent strikeout rate against a fairly bloated 10.5 percent walk rate. Scouting reports at BA and FanGraphs credit him with a mid-90s heater and a plus slider.

The ruling on the trio of Reds players is the latest in an increasingly wide-reaching swath of players who were in limbo with regard to their option status in 2021. Players typically have three minor league options, but a fourth option year can be granted to teams in the case of players who use all of their options before completing five “full” seasons. A “full” season, per the league, requires a player to spend 90 days on an active roster (not the injured list) at either the big  league or minor league level. Because last year’s season was shortened to 60 games in a 67-day span, there was some uncertainty regarding a number of players.

Aquino’s option status looked to be straightforward at first glance. He was optioned in 2017, 2018 and 2020, spending more than 20 days in the minor leagues in each season. However, as Doug Gray covered at RedlegNation.com earlier this spring, the Reds did not list him as out of options on their spring media guides and believed there to be a case, based on missed playing time throughout his career, that he could be the recipient of a fourth option. MLB’s arbiter, it seems, did not agree.

The result now is that the Reds will either have to carry Aquino on the Opening Day roster or else trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers, at which point any of the 29 other clubs could place a claim. It’s something of a tricky situation for the Reds, as there’s no path to a starting role with Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Nick Castellanos lined up from left to right. Aquino isn’t a center fielder, so he’s not an ideal fourth outfielder. Even if Aquino could handle center, Shogo Akiyama is expected back before too long, which would push Aquino further down the depth chart.

Aquino caught all of baseball’s attention in 2019 when he turned in one of the best debut months in recent memory. Called up on Aug. 1, Aquino turned in a preposterous .320/.391/.767 slash with 14 home runs through his first 115 plate appearances. Having emerged from relative obscurity, he suddenly looked like a potential everyday outfield option for the Reds. But the month of September was nearly as bad as August was good; in 110 plate appearances Aquino batted .196/.236/.382 with a 30.9 percent strikeout rate. The Reds added both Castellanos and Akiyama the following winter, and Aquino’s path to playing time was suddenly blocked.

The Reds still managed to get Aquino 56 plate appearances last year, but he hit just .170/.304/.319 in that time. All told, dating back to September 2019, Aquino has slashed just .188/.259/.362 with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate. There’s obvious power in his bat, but it’s also hard to overlook the fact that Aquino’s massive power spike came in a 2019 season marred by controversy surrounding what most believe was a juiced baseball in both Triple-A and the Majors. Aquino hit 47 long balls in 134 games between Louisville and Cincinnati that year, but he’d never previously topped 23 dingers in a single season of games.

Now, absent a fourth option year, the Reds are left with a week’s time to determine whether Aquino will make the roster or be made available to other clubs via trade or waivers. Even if he does make the roster, Akiyama’s looming return will cloud his future with the club. Aquino is hitting .241/.353/.448 with four doubles, a triple and no homers in 34 plate appearances this spring. He’s punched out eight times.

As for De Leon and Perez, they’ll be able to be optioned between Louisville and Cincinnati this year, giving the Reds some additional depth in the ’pen and perhaps the rotation. De Leon was once one of baseball’s premier pitching prospects, but he’s bounced between three teams now and undergone Tommy John surgery along the way. He’s pitched just 66 innings in a pro game over the past three years. Perez was acquired from the Astros over the winter and worked as a starter in the minors with Houston, but all 20 of his MLB appearances have come out of the bullpen.

The move opens up a 40-man roster spot for the Astros, so the Michael Brantley signing could be officially announced at any moment.  For the second time in two days, the Reds picked up a reliever from a team looking to clear a 40-man spot, after Cincinnati acquired Hector Perez from the Blue Jays so Toronto could accommodate George Springer (whose deal is now official) on the roster.

Perez, 24, has pitched in each of the last three seasons, amassing a 5.74 ERA, 23.1K% and 10.3K-BB% over 26 2/3 career innings as a big leaguer.  Armed with a mid-90s fastball, Perez misses his fair share of bats but control has been an issue — particularly in 2020, when he issued six walks in just 6 1/3 innings of work.  He was a fairly high-profile international signing out of Cuba back in December 2016, but didn’t get much of a consistent look in Houston, as the Astros frequently shuttled Perez back and forth between their active roster and Triple-A (or to the alternate training site, in 2020).

While a small sample size, Perez has been significantly better against left-handed batters (.630 OPS in 39 PA) over his MLB career than against righty swingers (.825 OPS in 78 PA).  The three-batter rule will prevent the Reds from utilizing him as a true lefty specialist, but he does provide some southpaw depth for a Cincinnati team that is heavy in right-handed pitching.  Amir Garrett is the only other left-handed reliever on the Reds’ 40-man roster, so opportunity exists for Perez to win a job in Spring Training.

The Reds selected Berryhill in the 13th round of the 2019 draft.  A product of the University of South Carolina, Berryhill’s professional career thus far consists of only 32 Rookie League plate appearances in 2019, as the minor league shutdown last season kept Berryhill off the field.

SEPT. 8: McCullers “had some procedure done” on his neck, manager Dusty Baker announced (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The surgery repaired “95 to 98 percent of whatever discomfort he was feeling,” according to Baker, though it’s still unknown when McCullers will return.

SEPT. 6: The Astros have placed right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. on the 10-day injured list due to neck nerve irritation, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Beyond the requisite 10 days on the IL, a timeline for McCullers’s return is unclear. Southpaw Cionel Perez was recalled from the taxi squad to join the active roster.

McCullers pitched Friday against the Angels, failing to record an out and exiting the game after facing just five batters. He walked three Angels hitters and conceded three runs, but stated after the game that his struggles weren’t due to injury.

While we don’t know precisely how long the Astros expect McCullers to be shelved, any injury to an already-thin Houston pitching staff is a significant one. The team has been without ace Justin Verlander for practically the entire season, and Jose Urquidy has only just returned from a bout with COVID-19. As such, Houston has had to rely on inexperienced starters like Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Bielak.

McCullers, for his part, has had an up-and-down campaign in his return from Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of last year. There’s been a mix of good starts and bad starts, but the numbers indicate for the most part that the 26-year-old is not quite back to the form that earned him an All-Star nod in 2017.

While he’s been known as a strikeout pitcher for his entire career, he’s averaging only 7.7 K/9 in 2020.  McCullers’ sinker velocity is down ever so slightly from previous years, but the more glaring disparity is in his sinker’s spin rate, which has taken a considerable hit from where it was two years ago. That, along with decreased curveball usage (at 35%, he’s throwing the curveball less than ever), has made it more difficult to generate whiffs.