Collins, 27, was a ninth-round pick by the Rockies back in 2019 and has yet to make his major league debut. The Brewers plucked him from Colorado in the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, and he’s spent the past two seasons in the upper levels of Milwaukee’s minor league system. He’s performed well in his first full season at Triple-A this year, with a .273/.386/.475 slash line in 500 trips to the plate. He’s supplemented that solid production at the plate with impressive baserunning (24 steals in 29 attempts) and the versatility to play second base, third base, and all over the outfield.

He’ll now get the opportunity to prove himself at the big league level with the Brewers as the regular season winds down. Milwaukee has little to worry about in terms of making the playoffs, as their ten-game lead over the Cubs and Cardinals is all but insurmountable at this point, though the club still does have something to play for as they’re three games back of both the Phillies and Dodgers for a bye through the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Even so, the Brewers’ cushion in the NL Central race and September’s expanded 28-man rosters provides the club with an opportunity to get potential future contributors exposure at the big league level while also shoring up their overall depth.

Making way for Collins on the club’s roster is Hicklen. The 28-year-old outfielder had a brief cup of coffee with the Royals in the majors back in 2022 but his time with the Brewers this year has been his second foray into major league action. Hicklen’s .247/.364/.484 slash line at the Triple-A level isn’t too dissimilar from that of Collins, and his slightly less valuable offense is more or less outweighed by a fantastic 42-for-47 record on the basepaths this year at Triple-A. That said, replacing Hicklen on the roster with Collins offers the Brewers the opportunity to roster a hitter with a similar skillset who can back up the infield alongside Andruw Monasterio as well as filling in around the outfield when necessary.

As for Yelich, his placement on the 60-day IL is hardly a surprise given the fact that his season came to an end when he underwent back surgery last month. The 32-year-old enjoyed his best offensive season in years when healthy enough to take the field this year, slashing .315/.406/.504 in 73 games while stealing 21 bases in 22 attempts. He’s currently expected to be ready to return to the middle of the club’s lineup in time for the 2025 season.

For the past month, it has been a near inevitability that Yelich was headed for surgery. He went on the 10-day injured list the week before the trade deadline after playing through lower back discomfort. Yelich visited a spine specialist and initially tried a non-surgical rehab that’d allow him to delay the procedure until the offseason. The hope was to get healthy enough to be able to contribute to the Brewers’ pennant push before more definitively addressing the problem at year’s end.

As Yelich explained today, the injury “wasn’t getting better” over the past few weeks. He added that he “ran out of options” that would allow him to make it back this season. The former MVP understandably expressed disappointment that he won’t be able to contribute on the field but indicated he’d remain around the team while they attempt to lock down a second consecutive NL Central title (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

It’s a tough end to what was shaping up as Yelich’s best season in a few years. He was utterly dominant during his first two years in Milwaukee, following up an MVP campaign in 2018 with a runner-up finish in ’19. Yelich paced the Senior Circuit in OPS both seasons. His production dropped sharply after that. From 2020-23, he was a solid but not elite hitter. Yelich remained a good player who appeared to be on the decline coming into this year, his age-32 season.

He completely flipped that script with a monster first half. Yelich raked at a .315/.406/.504 clip across 315 plate appearances. He homered 11 times and stole 21 bases while being thrown out just once. The three-time Silver Slugger Award winner cut his strikeout rate to 18.4%, the lowest of his Brewers tenure, while drawing walks at an excellent 12.4% clip. Even if he wasn’t quite back to an MVP level, Yelich was an easy call to start for the National League in the All-Star Game.

Among hitters with 300+ plate appearances, Yelich is fifth in average and fourth in on-base percentage. He’s within the top 20 in slugging output. His overall offensive production was 53 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s quite comfortably tops on the team and 13th in the majors overall (with that 300 PA minimum). Yelich’s rate production sits between that of Rafael Devers and Ketel Marte.

Milwaukee isn’t going to be able to replace that kind of output. They were aware that Yelich might not make it back by the deadline. The front office reportedly sought a left-handed bat who could offer some punch against righty pitching but ultimately didn’t find a deal to their liking. Their deadline acquisitions ended up being exclusively on the pitching side, as they brought in Frankie Montas and reliever Nick Mears (in addition to their early-July pickup of Aaron Civale). The Montas trade actually sacrificed a bit of outfield depth since they sent Joey Wiemer to Cincinnati, though Wiemer wasn’t playing well enough in Triple-A to take on a meaningful role in Milwaukee.

Star rookie Jackson Chourio has moved to left field in Yelich’s absence. The 20-year-old is on a tear after a slow start to his debut campaign. Chourio has hit over .300 in each of the past three months. He’s hitting .274/.320/.441 on the season and has a massive .320/.368/.510 slash going back to June 1. Sal Frelick is having a decent year in right field, hitting .259/.333/.331 with above-average defensive grades. Former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell is back from injury to handle center field duties.

It’s still an extremely talented outfield, but any lineup would be much improved with Yelich in the middle of the order. The injury shouldn’t stop the Brewers from making the postseason. At 69-52, they’ve built a comfortable nine-game cushion in the NL Central. Milwaukee is in a tight battle for one of the top two seeds in the National League and the accompanying first-round bye. They’re a game and a half behind the Phillies and Dodgers, who are separated by percentage points for the NL’s best record.

Yelich remains a foundational piece for the Brew Crew in the long term. He’s under contract at $26MM annually for four seasons beyond this one. The team holds a $20MM option for the ’29 campaign. Yelich has dealt with intermittent back issues dating back to his first few seasons with the Marlins. The surgery will hopefully prevent that from being a major concern as he nears his mid-30s.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Milwaukee is hitting .256/.332/.403 against right-handed pitching as a team — good for a 108 wRC+ that ranks ninth among MLB teams. However, Yelich’s return to MVP-caliber form this season has played a substantial role in that production. The 2018 NL MVP and 2019 MVP runner-up carries a .315/.406/.504 batting line on the season. He’s ripped 11 homers and added 21 doubles, three triples and 21 steals (in 22 attempts).

Yelich has tormented both left- and right-handed pitchers, and Milwaukee has several righty bats (e.g. William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, Willy Adames) who’ve been quite productive against righties. The rest of the lineup, however, is lacking in terms of impact left-handed bats. Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick and switch-hitting Blake Perkins (who’s been better as a right-handed hitter) are all lighter-hitting options. Yelich was the team’s primary left-handed power threat, and now it’s both unclear precisely when he’ll return and how effective he’ll be upon activation.

The market generally isn’t steeped in impactful lefties, but there are a few who have floated throughout the rumor mill in recent weeks. Marlins center fielder/second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. is widely expected to be traded prior to Tuesday’s deadline. He’s controlled through the 2026 season. The Rays have been active in selling off some veterans to both clear payroll and make way for younger/more inexpensive contributor and would likely be willing to move Brandon Lowe, who can be a free agent at season’s end but has two club options on his contract. Angels switch-hitting infielder Luis Rengifo is another option and is controlled through 2025. Former Brewer and current Nats outfielder/DH Jesse Winker is enjoying a rebound campaign after a pair of injury-wrecked seasons (one in Milwaukee) and as a rental on a selling club is among the likeliest trade options in the game.

The weekend slate of games will be worth following with a watchful eye. The Giants, for instance, would have several left-handed bats that could hit the market if they fail to make up any ground in the standings (or fall back even further). Michael Conforto is an impending free agent, while Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. are controlled through the 2025 season.

Milwaukee currently has a payroll of about $112MM — a notable drop from last year’s season-end payroll of about $126MM. This month’s acquisition of Aaron Civale already added a bit of money to the books, and gap between the current payroll and last year’s mark should signify that GM Matt Arnold and his team have a bit of financial wiggle room as they look to address multiple needs in the next four-plus days.

The Brewers placed their star and former MVP on the 10-day injured list yesterday with lower back inflammation. It was reported at the time that the 32-year-old would be seeing a spine specialist today with season-ending surgery a possibility, though it seems the specialist gave Yelich some hope of returning this season.

The lower back has been an ongoing problem for Yelich, as he went on the IL due to issues in that part of his body in 2014, 2015, 2021 and now again in 2024. “I’ve dealt with it a lot during my career,” Yelich said yesterday, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “I feel like it’s kind of affected me in a negative way at times. I’ve been able to play at a high level but it’s one of those things that’s held be back a little, so that’s where it’s frustrating. What are you going to do? But also, though, there’s a potential that I can finally get on the other side of this, finally, when all is said and done. We’ll see. It remains to be seen, I guess.”

Based on those words from Yelich, it seems as though there’s some belief that the surgery could put the issue behind him for good. Even if that is the case, it’s understandable why he would try to delay it, at least for a few months. The Brewers are currently 59-43 and have a six-game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. Given the club’s circumstances, it’s understandable that he would want to pursue a chance of coming back for the stretch run and then the playoffs.

Even when not 100% healthy, he’s often the best player on the field when he’s out there. He won National League MVP in 2018 and was roughly as good in 2019. Over those two seasons, he hit 80 home runs and slashed .327/.415/.631 for a wRC+ of 170. He also stole 52 bases and played all three outfield positions. He racked up a massive 14.2 wins above replacement in that two-year stretch, per FanGraphs.

He then had a bit of a dip in 2020 and 2021, hitting .234/.360/.392 in that time for a 106 wRC+, but he’s been on an upward trend since then. His wRC+ jumped to 111 in 2022 and 122 last year, before getting all the way to 155 here in 2024. He’s hit 11 home runs and is drawing walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a .315/.406/.504 batting line. He’s swiped 21 bags as well.

Getting that kind of production back in the lineup later in the year will obviously be a priority for the Brewers. For now, they have an outfield mix consisting of Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins. The designated hitter slot can be shared between Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and others.

Even if he is able to return this year, it’s still possible he’ll have to go under the knife later. Whether that impacts his offseason or his 2025 campaign remains to be seen. His deal with the Brewers runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

“Everybody plays through stuff, but  sometimes you just can’t,” Yelich tells McCalvy. “That’s kind of where we’re at, at this point. Your body won’t cooperate with you.”

10:35am: The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve placed Christian Yelich on the 10-day injured list due to lower back inflammation. Catcher Gary Sanchez was activated from the IL to take Yelich’s spot on the roster.

Yelich exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs with tightness in his back, and he’s taken a more ominous tone this morning when discussing the injury with the Brewers beat. He’s headed to see a specialist, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link), and Yelich’s description of what comes next foreshadowed a potentially notable absence.

“Go from there as far as what’s going to be best for the near future and into the future,” Yelich said of his visit to a back specialist. “A couple different discussions I think that need to be had.”

Yelich, 32, saw his production tail off in 2020-21, but the former MVP has been on the upswing since. His numbers have improved in three straight seasons, culminating in a vintage .315/.406/.504 batting line through his first 315 plate appearances of the 2024 season. That’s 56% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, which stands as the third-highest mark in Yelich’s excellent career. His reemergence as one of the National League’s best and most well-rounded offensive players has played a huge role in Milwaukee’s five-game lead in the division, but Yelich’s comments this morning are far from optimistic.

The Brewers are deeper in outfielders than most clubs, so there are plenty of internal options to step into his spot, though clearly no one can be expected to replicate Yelich’s standout offense this season. Still, Milwaukee has Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins all on the big league roster at the moment. Former top prospect Joey Wiemer has a 16.6% walk rate and .376 OBP down in Triple-A (though his typical power output has curiously been M.I.A.). Milwaukee also just added the appropriately named Brewer Hicklen to its 40-man roster last week; the 28-year-old has hit .274/.383/.569 with 19 homers and 27 steals in Triple-A Nashville after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.

It’s not yet clear how much time Yelich can be expected to miss, but with the trade deadline just six days away, it’s easy enough to see this injury having some broad-reaching impact on the Brewers’ deadline outlook. Yelich’s absence could make the Brewers more wary of dealing from that stash of controllable young outfielders. It’s also feasible that a long-term absence could push the Brewers to look into adding a bat, regardless of position. Yelich has been the team’s best hitter and has also appeared in 26 games as a designated hitter. That could open up some at-bats for any new hitter to step into the lineup.

Starting pitching figures to remain the Brewers’ focus, even after adding Aaron Civale in a deal with the Rays earlier this month, but Yelich’s injury is a difficult one to stomach for a division-leading team. There’s no comparable hitter who could be had, of course, but it stands to reason that a long-term absence for Yelich could prompt Milwaukee to look at a variety of bats who could deepen the lineup.

Yelich, 32, last played on Friday with back soreness keeping him out of the lineup in recent days. Since IL stints can be backdated by three days as long as a player doesn’t play, the club waited to see how he responded to a bit of time off. It seems he is still sore enough that he’ll need a bit more time on the shelf, but the backdating means he could potentially be back in a week.

Though the move isn’t surprising and his absence may be brief, it’s nonetheless frustrating for the Brew Crew. Yelich hit a torrid .333/.422/.744 in his first 11 games, launching five home runs in that time. He wasn’t going to be able to maintain that forever but it’s still unfortunate that he was dragged down in the middle of such a heater.

With outfielder Garrett Mitchell also on the injured list, Milwaukee has mostly been using Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick as their regular outfielders in recent days with Joey Wiemer in a fourth outfielder role.

The recall of Miller gives them a versatile bench piece for the time being. Since the start of 2022, he has played all of the non-shortstop infield positions as well as the outfield corners. He’s hit just .241/.289/.349 in that time but has 17 stolen bases in 19 tries and has received solid grades for his glovework.

It’s worth noting that the majority of the players responsible for that production are no longer on the roster. Of the ten players to appear at first base for the Brewers in 2023, only Owen Miller remains with the organization. It’s a similar story at third base, where only Miller and Andruw Monasterio are still with Milwaukee among the seven players the club relied on at the hot corner in 2023. Both Miller and Monasterio have the look of solid, versatile bench pieces but appear miscast as regulars in the lineup with wRC+ marks of 81 and 88 respectively.

Given the club’s extreme lack of viable options at the infield corners, it’s hardly a surprise that Brewers GM Matt Arnold told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that the club views both first and third base as areas of the roster in need of an upgrade, even after acquiring Jake Bauers from the Yankees ahead of last month’s tender deadline. Arnold indicated that the club would have interest in a potential reunion with veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, who slashed a solid .249/.314/.459 in 226 plate appearances after being acquired by the club in a midseason trade with the Pirates over the summer.

The veteran switch-hitter will celebrate his 38th birthday shortly after Opening Day in 2024, but has been among the most consistent and disciplined hitters in the league throughout his tenure as a big leaguer. Throughout his 14 seasons in the majors, Santana has never posted a walk rate below 10.5% or a strikeout rate above 20.2% with near-equal career marks of 14.5% and 16.8%, respectively. That excellent discipline has come at the expense of power in recent years, as Santana posted a meager .148 ISO from 2020-22. 2023 represented something of a rebound on that front, however, as Santana slugged .429 while crushing 23 home runs, the fifth-highest total of his career.

Looking at options beyond Santana, Arnold suggesting that one solution for the infield corners could come internally in the form of Tyler Black. Milwaukee’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and #4 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Black impressed at the plate in 2023 with a .287/.413/.513 slash line in 558 trips to the plate split between the Double- and Triple-A levels. Arnold heaped praise on the lefty slugger, telling reporters (as relayed by Rosiak) that Black is “just so talented and has a lot of upside,” while confirming that Black will have the chance to earn a spot on the big league roster this spring.

One candidate for time at first base the Brewers won’t be entertaining, according to Arnold, is Christian Yelich. The club’s $215MM man has scuffled a bit in recent years following his back-to-back MVP-caliber campaigns in 2018 and 2019 but bounced back somewhat this season, slashing a solid .278/.370/.447 with a wRC+ of 122 while swiping 28 bags in 31 attempts. Despite that solid offensive production, defensive metrics were mixed on Yelich’s performance with the glove in left field. While he accumulated a solid +4 OAA in 2023, DRS wasn’t so kind as only Bryan De La Cruz posted a lower figure than Yelich’s -3 while recording as many innings in the field.

Moving Yelich to first could improve the club’s defense while thinning a logjam in the outfield that includes Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, and Tyrone Taylor in addition to Yelich. Such a shift is evidently not in the cards for Milwaukee, however, as Arnold suggested he “wouldn’t expect” to see Yelich at first base next year, leaving him to continue patrolling left field or spending time at DH. With the Brewers listening to offers on their glut of young outfielders, it’s possible the aforementioned group of seven outfielders could be winnowed down by a trade before Spring Training rolls around in February.

It’s the latest negative development for a Guardians rotation that’s been plagued by injury woes all year. Right-handers Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are both currently on the 60-day injured list, while righty Cal Quantrill also missed significant time with injury earlier this season. With the club’s three most established starters having spent time on the shelf this season, Bibee has become the rotation’s anchor during his rookie season. The 24-year-old youngster sports an impressive 2.98 ERA that’s 41% better than league average across 25 starts this year. While his 3.52 FIP and and slightly inflated 80% strand rate indicate there could be some regression in Bibee’s future, his solid 24.1% strikeout rate and strong 7.7% walk rate give him the look of a strong mid-rotation starter at the very least.

If Bibee’s injury ends his 2023 campaign, it will have certainly been a successful one that figures to garner some attention in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The Guardians are unlikely to be meaningfully impacted by his availability for the remainder of this season, however. Considering Cleveland sits seven games back of the Twins in the AL Central with just thirteen games left to play, it would take a miracle for the club to make the postseason even in the weak AL Central division.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

• Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal exited yesterday’s 13-inning marathon loss to the Diamondbacks with right hamstring tightness, as relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal’s balky right hamstring has caused him issues throughout his young big league career: it required season-ending surgery while he was with the White Sox back in 2021, and he missed just under a month with a strain earlier this season. A former top prospect who was selected fourth overall in the 2018 draft, Madrigal has slashed just .283/.311/.352 (83 wRC+) in 294 big league plate appearances this season. That being said, the 26-year-old has hit better since returning to the big leagues from an optional assignment in early June, slashing .271/.325/.379 with a minuscule 7.7% strikeout rate. With Jeimer Candelario already on the shelf, the Cubs figure to primarily rely on Patrick Wisdom at third base for the time being if Madrigal is out for an extended period.
• Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich has appeared in just one game since September 8 due to low back stiffness, and manager Craig Counsell (as relayed by MLB.com) indicates that the 31-year-old is still day-to-day despite starting Friday’s game against the Nationals. “At this point, we need 100 percent of Christian Yelich.” Counsell told reporters yesterday, “It’s not the time to go out there less than that.” Though Yelich is still nowhere near the level of production he enjoyed in 2018 and 2019 when he looked like one of the best players in the sport, the veteran outfielder has enjoyed a bounce-back of sorts in 2023, slashing a solid .272/.363/.432 with a wRC+ of 116. The club has utilized Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the outfield alongside regular fixtures Sal Frelick and Mark Canha while Yelich has been unavailable.
• Royals catcher Salvador Perez exited yesterday’s game against the Astros after a foul ball off the bat of Jose Altuve struck his mask in the fifth inning. Perez began to feel lightheaded before exiting the game to undergo the concussion protocol, though the Royals later announced that Perez had avoided a concussion. Per MLB.com, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters that Perez “got his bell rung a little bit” but that Perez was feeling fine by the end of the game. It’s possible, then, that Perez returns to the lineup as soon as this afternoon. Perez has slashed .252/.291/.415 with a wRC+ of 84 in 551 trips to the plate this year while splitting time between catcher, first base, and DH.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

• Jose Altuve, Astros

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

• Charlie Blackmon, Rockies

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

• Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

• Brandon Crawford, Giants

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

• Salvador Perez, Royals

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

• Chris Sale, Red Sox

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

• Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

• Mike Trout, Angels

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

• Joey Votto, Reds

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

• Patrick Corbin, Nationals

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

• Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

• Bryce Harper, Phillies

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

• Aaron Hicks, Yankees

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

• DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

• Manny Machado, Padres

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

• Ryan Pressly, Astros

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

• Christian Yelich, Brewers

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

• Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

• Ozzie Albies, Braves

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

• Nolan Arenado, Cardinals

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

• Javier Báez, Tigers

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

• José Berríos, Blue Jays

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

• Mookie Betts, Dodgers

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

• Xander Bogaerts, Padres

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

• Kris Bryant, Rockies

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

• Byron Buxton, Twins

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

• Luis Castillo, Mariners

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

• Gerrit Cole, Yankees

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

• Willson Contreras, Cardinals

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

• Carlos Correa, Twins

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

• Jake Cronenworth, Padres

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

• Yu Darvish, Padres

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

• Jacob deGrom, Rangers

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

• Rafael Devers, Red Sox

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

• Edwin Díaz, Mets

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

• Wilmer Flores, Giants

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

• Kyle Freeland, Rockies

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

• Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

• Wander Franco, Rays

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

• Andrés Giménez, Guardians

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

• Michael Harris II, Braves

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

• Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

• Kyle Hendricks, Cubs

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

• Aaron Judge, Yankees

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

• Francisco Lindor, Mets

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

• Lance McCullers Jr., Astros

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

• Ryan McMahon, Rockies

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

• Sean Murphy, Braves

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

• Joe Musgrove, Padres

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

• Brandon Nimmo, Mets

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

• Matt Olson, Braves

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

• Marcell Ozuna, Braves

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

• José Ramírez, Guardians

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

• J.T. Realmuto, Phillies

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

• Anthony Rendon, Angels

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

• Austin Riley, Braves

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

• Carlos Rodón, Yankees

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

• Julio Rodríguez, Mariners

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

• Keibert Ruiz, Nationals

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

• Corey Seager, Rangers

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

• Marcus Semien, Rangers

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

• Antonio Senzatela, Rockies

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

• George Springer, Blue Jays

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

• Trevor Story, Red Sox

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

• Dansby Swanson, Cubs

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

• Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

• Chris Taylor, Dodgers

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

• Trea Turner, Phillies

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

The Lock

Christian Yelich

Yelich, 31, is the one constant in the Milwaukee outfield picture, as his contract runs through 2028. He was one of the best players in the league in 2018 and 2019, winning National League Most Valuable Player in the first of those two seasons. In each of those two campaigns, he posted a wRC+ of 167 or higher, stole at least 22 bases and was worth 7.2 fWAR or more. His production has dropped off from those incredible heights over the past three years, but he’s still a solidly above-average player. Last year, he hit 14 home runs, stole 19 bases and walked in 13.1% of his plate appearances. That led to a .252/.355/.383 batting line, a 111 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR.

His contract and past performance ensure that he’ll be part of the team on a regular basis, though he’ll likely serve as the designated hitter a few times, leaving plenty of outfield playing time for others. The last time he played the field in more than 115 games in a season was 2019. Since the club is invested in Yelich for the long haul, they’ll want to continue giving him the occasional breather to keep him healthy. Advanced defensive metrics are also split on his glovework, with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both grading him as subpar last year and for his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating is much more encouraged.

Short-Term Vets

Jesse Winker

Winker, 29, is looking for a bounce back after a down season. In 2020 and 2021 with the Reds, he hit 36 home runs and produced a batting line of .292/.392/.552. Of all the hitters in the league with at least 650 plate appearances in that stretch, his 145 wRC+ was one of the 10 best. His work was even stronger with the platoon advantage, as he hit righties to the tune of .321/.417/.619 for a 167 wRC+, with only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper ahead of him in that department. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2022 but struggled, hitting just 14 home runs last year and slashing .219/.344/.344 overall for a wRC+ of 109.

The Brewers acquired him as part of the Kolten Wong trade and will hope that a second change of scenery will suit Winker better than the first. It’s possible that injuries played a role as Winker required left knee surgery and a second procedure to address a bulging disc in his neck in October, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has also reported that Winker’s work habits were a concern in Seattle. Regardless of the cause, Milwaukee is considered to be a much more favorable offensive environment than Seattle, which should work in his favor.

It remains to be seen how much the Brewers want to rely on Winker as a defender. His glovework has generally been rated poorly in his career and his numbers declined in that department in 2022. That could have been impacted by his health situation, but it’s possible he spends more time as the DH than in the field. However, as mentioned, Yelich will likely see his share of time in the DH slot as well, which will likely require Winker to spend at least a bit of time in the field. Winker is slated for free agency at season’s end.

Brian Anderson

Anderson, 30 in May, is also looking for a bounceback like Winker. From 2018-20, he hit 42 home runs for the Marlins and produced a line of .266/.350/.436, 115 wRC+. But the past two seasons have seen injuries diminish his playing time and performance. He got into just 165 total games over 2021 and 2022, hitting .233/.321/.359 for a 93 wRC+. He was eligible for one more pass through arbitration but the Marlins non-tendered him instead, with Anderson then signing a one-year deal with the Brewers.

Anderson has a bit more time at third base in his career than the outfield, and he told reporters last month he expects to see more time at third base than in the outfield. Milwaukee has Luis Urías to man the hot corner, through. That should leave Anderson in the mix for some outfield time, perhaps in a platoon role. He hits from the right side while Yelich and Winker both his left-handed, as do some of the guys below him on this list. Anderson has modest reverse splits for his career but did hit lefties better last year. Defensively, in over 1,500 outfield innings, Anderson has a -8 OAA but 8 DRS and 9.3 UZR. Even though he was hurt last year, his arm strength was still considered to be in the 99th percentile by Statcast, which could serve him well at third base or in the outfield.

Controllable Guys With Some Experience

Tyrone Taylor

Taylor, 29, has been largely a part-time option for the Brewers in recent years but took on a larger role last year as Cain was gradually phased out. He got into 120 games in 2022 and provided enough power to overcome some lackluster work at the plate otherwise. He struck out in 25.2% of his plate appearances and drew walks at just a 5.4% clip, but he did hit 17 long balls in 405 plate appearances. The result was a .233/.286/.442 batting line and a wRC+ of 102.

That work at the plate was just above average but he was much stronger on the other side of the ball. He played all three outfield positions but mostly in center, earning 6 DRS, 6 OAA and 2.0 UZR overall. It wasn’t a superstar performance but was competent in enough areas to produce 2.1 fWAR on the year. He’s set to reach arbitration for the first time after this year and can be retained through the 2026 campaign.

Garrett Mitchell

Mitchell, 24, was only drafted in 2020 but has already cracked the majors. He hit .287/.377/.426 between Double-A and Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 118. He was selected to the major league club in August and was somehow even better in the big leagues. He hit .311/.373/.459 for a wRC+ of 136 in his first 68 MLB plate appearances. That’s a small sample size, however, and he did strike out 41.2% of the time. His defensive work was also graded as above average and he stole eight bases in 28 games.

Mitchell is a real wild card in this bunch since his 2023 could seemingly go in many different ways. On the one hand, he’s shown impressive results in all facets of the game and could be an immediate center field solution, pushing Taylor into a corner role. On the other hand, he has played less than 50 games above Double-A, the strikeouts are a real concern and his .548 batting average on balls in play will require serious regression.

Skye Bolt/Monte Harrison

Bolt, 29, and Harrison, 27, are in a similar boat to each other. They have both posted some solid minor league numbers but struggled in the majors. They’re now both out of options and had to settle for minor league deals for 2023. Bolt has a career batting line of .156/.205/.266 while Harrison’s is .176/.253/.294. They’ll likely only get a shot if the club gets bit by the injury bug a few times. Neither has reached arbitration yet and could theoretically be retained well into the future if they carve out a role.

Infielders That Can Play Some Outfield

Brice Turang/Mike Brosseau/Keston Hiura

With Wong having been traded to the Mariners, the second base job is up for grabs. Turang is one of the club’s top prospects and had a strong season in Triple-A last year, making him the favorite to take the job at the keystone despite not having cracked the majors yet. He played a bit of center field in Triple-A last year but is primarily a middle infielder. Brosseau can play all over and will be in a super utility role, allowing the club to pencil him in for any regular that requires an off-day. Hiura’s not quite as versatile, having only played first base, second base and left field in his big league career so far. He has tremendous power but has struck out in 36% of his plate appearances thus far, which will make it hard for him to carve out meaningful playing time.

On The Cusp Of A Debut

Blake Perkins

Perkins, 26, has long been considered a glove-first player but his bat seemingly took a step forward last year. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A in the Yankees’ system, he stole 21 bases, hit 15 home runs and slashed .246/.357/.456 for a wRC+ of 120. He wasn’t added to that club’s roster at any point but the Brewers were intrigued enough to sign him onto their 40-man roster in November. He’ll likely be in the minors waiting for an opportunity to get called up, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his defense and speed. If the power he showed last year was a real development, he could be a well-rounded contributor.

Sal Frelick

Frelick, 23 in April, was the club’s first round pick in the 2021 draft but has quickly climbed the minor league ladder. Last year, he went from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, hitting .331/.403/.480 for a wRC+ of 137, stealing 24 bases in the process. He doesn’t have much power but he’s very tough to strikeout, hitting 11 home runs last year but getting punched out at just an 11.2% rate. He’s still not on the 40-man roster but he’s considered one of the club’s top prospects and could force his way into the picture soon.

Joey Wiemer

Wiemer, 24 this weekend, is the inverse of Frelick with big power but strikeout concerns. He hit 21 home runs last year between Double-A and Triple-A but went down on strikes 26.8% of the time. The result was a .256/.336/.465 batting line and a 109 wRC+. Despite being a power hitter, he has sneaky speed, swiping 31 bags last year. Like Frelick, he’s not on the 40-man yet but is on the doorstep. Both he and Frelick are considered capable of playing center field.

Top Prospect That Could Show Up This Year

Jackson Chourio

Chourio is arguably the most exciting of this whole bunch but he might require patience since he’s very young, still over a month away from his 19th birthday. Last year, despite being just 18 years old, he went through Low-A, High-A and Double-A, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 16 bases in 99 games. His .288/.342/.538 batting line resulted in a 135 wRC+ and he got strong reviews for his glovework in center field.

Based on those excellent results at such a young age, he’s now considered the #3 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #8 by MLB Pipeline and #5 at FanGraphs. Given his youth and the fact that he’s played just six Double-A games, he won’t be a solution for the Brewers in the short term. Even reaching the big leagues by the end of the season seems like a long shot, but it probably can’t be completely discounted given the tremendous talent he seems to possess.

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There’s a ton of young talent here, including about a half dozen plausible center fielders. That puts the Brewers in great shape for the long haul, though it might take some time to allow these guys to sort themselves out. Chourio isn’t close, while Wiemer, Frelick and Perkins still haven’t made it to the majors. Mitchell had a great debut but will need a longer stress test. Taylor should be solid for now but isn’t elite at anything and could be surpassed by the younger guys in time. Winker and Anderson will both be free agents after this year but it seems like the club could easily replace them from within.

In the future, it seems likely the Brewers will not only have a strong outfield but will likely have enough options to make trades that address other areas of the roster. We already saw one such move when they included Esteury Ruiz in the three-team deal that netted them William Contreras as their potential catcher of the future. Not all young players end up panning out as hoped, of course, but the quality and quantity both appear to be strong here. If the club can keep pace with the Cardinals in the division this year and there’s enough development from this group, perhaps the Brewers could be key players for deadline deals to help them push to return to the postseason after missing last year for the first time since 2017.

At the time – late November of 2019 – Grisham was at a low point, fresh off ending the Brewers season with an unfortunate bounce on a Juan Soto single that knocked Milwaukee out of the wild card game. Grisham had played admirably in a 51-game stint mostly standing in for the injured Christian Yelich – not at all an easy task, given his legendary status at the time. But the way the season ended definitely left a poor impression about Grisham’s future. Of course, Grisham would go on to win a Gold Glove Award as a centerfielder the next season, reminding us that a single moment in time cannot define a player’s career. The now-25-year-old has grown his well-rounded game enough to place him among the most promising centerfielders in the sport.

A similar lesson might be taken from the first few seasons of Urias’ career. His first season with the Brewers looked a lot like his first few years in San Diego. Following the 2020 season, Urias’ career triple-slash line was a punchless .226/.315/.320, a performance 24 percent below-average. The lack of pop wasn’t shocking, as power was never his calling card. His offensive potential was built on a keen eye at the plate and bat-to-ball skills that routinely produced batting averages of .290+ while in the minor leagues.

Urias, who’s still just 24, turned it around in the 2021 campaign, posting a 111 wRC+ while slashing .249/.345/.445 with 23 home runs. Oddly, it was his power that drove the improvement as his isolated power jumped to .196, an above-average mark that helped sustain a move to the more power-expectant position of third base. If last season’s output represents a new baseline for Urias, our typical understanding of the aging curve suggests that Urias ought to have at least another 5-6 seasons of being a very good baseball player.

If the high-average, high-on-base-percentage player that Urias had been throughout his minors career re-animates for the Brewers in 2022, the Brewers might really have a star player on their hands. They might need one, too, because, somewhat ironically, where once Grisham stood in for an injured Yelich, an improved Urias helped pick up the slack for a lessened Yelich in 2021. With Yelich no longer performing at the superhuman levels of his MVP seasons, and Lorenzo Cain beginning to show his age, the Brewers had to rely on a more egalitarian approach at the plate in 2021. Urias was a big reason why the Brewers were able to weather Yelich’s decline from a 170 wRC+ superhero in 2018-19 to an all-too-mortal 105 wRC+ in 2020-21. Willy Adames carried much of the load after his arrival from Tampa, but even his transformation into a middle-of-the-order bat (135 wRC+) didn’t come close to matching the firepower of Yelich in his heyday.

Manager Craig Counsell mixes-and-matches to maximize the production of an imperfect offensive roster, and he’s done so dating back to Yelich’s MVP years. The Brewers scored 754 runs in 2018 when Yelich won the MVP, 12th-most in the Majors, then 769 runs in 2019 when Yelich finished second, 15th-most in MLB. They scored just 247 runs in the truncated 2020 season when Yelich’s production first dipped, a mark that fell to 26th overall and resulted in a 29-31 season that barely qualified them for an expanded playoffs. Last season, they made the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season while scoring 738 runs, which landed them back at 12th overall in the Majors. In other words, the Brewers offense was about as good as it’s ever been with Yelich on the roster, despite Yelich himself producing barely better than average.

The Brewers under Counsell and GM David Stearns have always been a pitching-first organization, and that’s likely to continue in 2022 behind a rotation that’s among the most well-rounded in all of baseball. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta boast mind-bending pure stuff, but they’re buttressed by a pair of steady-eddies in Adrian Houser and Lauer, Urias’ traveling mate from San Diego. When healthy, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brent Suter make up the core of a formidable bullpen, not to mention Aaron Ashby, the hard-throwing, bespectacled southpaw who appears to be the next big arm to establish himself on Counsell’s staff.

Pitching dominance, however, now more than ever, is prone to whims of injury and year-to-year variance. Less length from starters means spreading the innings load to more pitchers than in days’ past, and that means spreading the potential for variance around as well. There are plusses and minuses to meting out that responsibility to so many arms. The Brewers pitching staff has ranked among the game’s best by fWAR the past two seasons, but nothing is guaranteed on the hill. The offense will need to carry their own water.

There are paths to Milwaukee scoring enough runs to cover even an unforeseen letdown from the pitching staff, but as of right now, they’re gambles. Obviously, a bounceback season from Yelich would do wonders. A rejuvenated Cain in his age-36 season would be amazing, however unlikely. Even another season from Adames at his Milwaukee potency would register as a pleasant surprise.

The list goes on. They need Keston Hiura to find the form that made him a top prospect bat. They need Hunter Renfroe and Tyrone Taylor to make up the production left behind by the departed Avisail Garcia. They need Rowdy Tellez to maintain his role as a power force, though year-to-year consistency has eluded the southpaw slugger in the past.

Urias, now stationed at the hot corner, might be the safest best of them all. Heading into last season, the sheen had worn off of Urias, and the prospect of his realizing the potential that was once heaped upon his 5’9″ frame was as unlikely as any of Milwaukee’s annual offensive gambits, and yet here we are. The Brewers not only need Urias to be a star, but it’s not wholly unfair to expect it.

Keston Hiura will undergo a minor surgery on his right elbow, Stearns said, although there’s no indication the issue could affect his readiness for Spring Training. Milwaukee’s Opening Day first baseman, Hiura struggled all season. He got off to a horrible start, striking out in 32 of his first 89 plate appearances en route to a .152/.247/.266 line through early May. The Brewers optioned Hiura to Triple-A Nashville at that point. Hiura hit well in the minors, but he still couldn’t find much success against big league pitching. In 108 MLB plate appearances from the time of his first demotion on, he continued to slump to a .181/.264/.330 mark.

At this point, the Brew Crew can’t enter 2022 counting on Hiura to assume an everyday role. Still, he’s a former top ten pick who’s not all that far removed from a huge .303/.368/.570 showing as a rookie in 2019. Milwaukee surely doesn’t want to give up on Hiura entirely, and Stearns floated the idea of getting him some work in the outfield next season. Hiura has only played first and second base as a pro (aside from one 3 1/3 inning stint in left field this year), but it’d be a bit easier for manager Craig Counsell to work him into the lineup if the 25-year-old proves capable of covering the grass on a regular basis.

Christian Yelich won’t have any issue getting everyday reps, but he’ll also be looking to recapture his 2019 level of performance. The former MVP’s numbers have hovered right around league average (.234/.360/.392) over the past couple seasons. It’s an alarming drop-off, surely not what Stearns and the front office had in mind when they inked Yelich to an extension over the 2019-20 offseason that paid him $188.5MM in new money.

Between Yelich’s prior accolades and the organization’s enormous financial commitment to him, it’s no surprise that Stearns says getting the 29-year-old back on track is a key focus this winter. Yelich’s strikeout, walk and hard contact rates are still all solid or better, but his power output has disappeared as his ground-ball percentage has spiked from 43.2% in 2019 to 54.8% this past season. Stearns candidly admitted the organization hasn’t yet diagnosed a root cause of Yelich’s downturn in performance, but he expressed optimism in the potential for a turnaround and noted that Yelich wasn’t being hampered by any health problems.

Stearns’ own status with the franchise has been something of a talking point in recent weeks. The Mets are reportedly interested in speaking with the Manhattan native as part of their search for a new president of baseball operations. Stearns landing in Flushing has never seemed especially likely, though, primarily because he’s under contract with the Brewers through the end of next season. Thus, Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio would need to grant the Mets permission to interview Stearns. Attanasio hasn’t definitely said whether he’d do so, although he rather coyly responded to the rumors last month (via Sports Illustrated) when he opined that Stearns is “a great executive. … He’s also under contract with us.”

For his part, Stearns mostly deflected attention away from his future, although he didn’t sound like someone anxious to leave Milwaukee. “I think I’ll shy away from any media or external speculation other than to say I’m happy here; my family is happy here. And we’ve got work to do here,” Stearns told reporters today when asked about the chances he makes the jump to the Big Apple.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, right-hander Adrian Houser was officially placed on the COVID list today, as was expected after the righty’s positive test yesterday.  Houser now joins Josh Hader, Eric Lauer, Keston Hiura, Jandel Gustave, Hunter Strickland, and Jake Cousins as Milwaukee players on the COVID list, as the club continues to deal with an outbreak within the clubhouse.  Yelich tested positive for the virus and was placed on the COVID-IL on July 27, so he’ll return after a pretty minimal stint, even if he isn’t immediately getting back into regular duty for the Brewers.

Between this absence and two stints on the regular injured list due to back problems, Yelich has appeared in only 67 games this season, and hit a modest .235/.382/.367 in 275 plate appearances.  While still above-average (104 OPS+, 108 wRC+) production, it certainly isn’t what was expected from the former NL MVP, even if the Brewers have surged into first place in the NL Central with only average hitting numbers overall.  A return to form from Yelich could be the spark Milwaukee needs to cement itself as a World Series contender, though the first order of business is simply to get everyone recovered from the COVID outbreak.

• The Brewers have been dealing with virus spread throughout the clubhouse in recent days, and another pair of players has tested positive. Starter Adrian Houser and reliever Jandel Gustave tested positive and were placed on the COVID IL, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). They join Josh Hader, Hunter Strickland, Eric Lauer, Jake Cousins, Keston Hiura and Christian Yelich on the COVID list. Yelich was cleared to return to the club today, but Milwaukee has elected to hold off on activating him for now as the star outfielder works his way back into game shape following a ten-day absence.
• The Diamondbacks have also been hit by COVID spread recently, but they got one of their players back today. Reliever Joe Mantiply, who had been out as a close contact of a player(s) who tested positive, was reinstated from the IL before this evening’s game against the Padres. Fellow southpaw Ryan Buchter, who was selected last week, was removed from the 40-man roster and returned to Triple-A Reno. As a COVID replacement, Buchter could be reassigned to the minor leagues without needing to pass through waivers.
• The recent uptick in viral spread (the Rockies and Yankees have each had similar issues recently) in both the league and the United States as a whole has caught the attention of MLB and the Players Association. After relaxing restrictions for vaccinated players and staff in mid-June, MLB is considering tightening protocols, reports Evan Drellich of the Athletic. The league updated its mask policy at Spring Training facilities this week, requiring those working at the facilities to wear masks in indoor areas regardless of vaccination status, Drellich writes. It seems MLB would prefer to tighten mask and distancing protocols rather than “aggressively” incentivize further vaccination among players and staff. Drellich writes that 85.5% of Tier 1 personnel leaguewide (players, coaches and other staff members in direct contact with the team) have been vaccinated.

To fill the two open roster spots, Lorenzo Cain is being activated off the 10-day injured list and Pablo Reyes was called up from Triple-A.  Cain was expected to return from the IL today, following an absence of almost two months while recovering from a hamstring strain.

The most important news is that Yelich is feeling relatively good following his positive test, though the former NL MVP will now be sidelined for the third time this season.  Yelich had two earlier IL placements due to back problems, costing him close to five weeks’ worth of action.  This nagging back issue has bothered Yelich for a few years, contributing to his below-average performance since the start of the 2020 season.  After his last 522 plate appearances, Yelich has hit .221/.370/.397 — a far cry from his .327/.415/.631 slash line over 1231 PA in 2018-19.

The Brewers are known to be looking for hitting help prior to the trade deadline, and losing Yelich will only add to the team’s search.  Peterson has also been a good addition to the roster over 50 games 161 PA this season, hitting .244/.373/.397 (good for a 109 OPS+ and 113 wRC+) after signing a minor league deal with Milwaukee this past winter.

It isn’t known what Cain will be able to provide after his second IL trip of the season, and the veteran has mostly been an offensive non-factor since the start of the 2019 season.  Cain has hit only .256/.327/.369 over his last 762 PA, as he has been hampered by multiple injuries and also elected to sit out much of the 2020 season.