This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Athletics and Brent Rooker agreeing to a five-year extension (1:40)
• The Dodgers signing Hyeseong Kim and trading Gavin Lux to the Reds (6:40)
• The Diamondbacks signing Corbin Burnes (14:45)
• Do the Blue Jays have unique challenges in signing free agents to come to another country? (16:30)
• Will Burnes opt out in two years and will the Diamondbacks trade a starter now? (21:05)
• The Yankees acquiring Cody Bellinger from the Cubs and signing Paul Goldschmidt (26:35)
• The Astros signing Christian Walker (34:40)
• The Mets signing Sean Manaea and Griffin Canning (39:15)
• The Red Sox signing Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval (43:35)
• The Phillies acquiring Jesús Luzardo and signing Max Kepler (50:35)
• The Orioles signing Charlie Morton (55:35)
• The Guardians trading Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and signing Carlos Santana (58:30)
• The Rangers trading Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals and signing Joc Pederson (1:01:25)
• The Nationals get Lowe as well as signing Josh Bell, Michael Soroka and Trevor Williams (1:05:30)
• The Tigers signing Gleyber Torres and shuffling their infield around (1:08:25)

Check out our past episodes!

• Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
• Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
• Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

December 20: A new-look Astros club will have a new first baseman in 2025, as the team has reportedly agreed to terms on a three-year, $60MM contract with free agent Christian Walker. The CAA client’s deal is still pending a physical.

Walker’s deal with Houston seems to shut the door on the possibility of a reunion with Alex Bregman. Houston recently acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the trade sending Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and while Paredes could’ve played first base with Bregman in the fold, he’ll be slotted in at third base with Walker now on board. Similarly, this effectively eliminates any chances of Nolan Arenado landing in Houston — an outcome that was all but at the finish line before Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix the deal.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a target of the Astros for some time now, dating back to the trade deadline when was reportedly at the top of their wishlist. A deal didn’t get done then, obviously, but Houston still has a need at first base after their three-year deal with Jose Abreu almost immediately imploded on them. Houston first basemen — led by Abreu and Jon Singleton — turned in an awful .226/.291/.360 batting line on the season in 2024. Walker, meanwhile, hit .251/.335/.468 — almost an exact match for the .253/.333/.464 line he carries through 3171 plate appearances dating back to the 2019 season.

On top of his quality results at the plate, Walker has emerged as arguably the premier defensive first baseman in MLB. He’s won three straight Gold Glove Awards in the National League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Average (39) over the past three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are second in those respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his position has essentially been unmatched.

Both Walker and the recently acquired Paredes are strong fits for the Astros, given the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s more true of Paredes, who’s one of the game’s most dead-pull and prominent fly-ball hitters. Walker has more of an all-fields approach, but when isolating his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks 15th among qualified hitters in fly-ball rate (32.2%). Put more simply, Walker may spray the ball around a bit more than Paredes, but when he does pull the ball, he lifts it far more often than the vast majority of big league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with plenty of pop in his bat, that should play quite nicely with a 314-foot left field porch.

It’s been a bull market for free agents this offseason, and Walker had accordingly been hoping to land a four-year deal. He’ll “settle” for a year less than that on a deal that aligns with early expectations. His three-year, $60MM deal is an exact match for our predicted contract back on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The $20MM annual salary on the contract puts the Astros north of the luxury tax threshold for what would be a second straight season. RosterResource now projects them at $244MM of luxury obligations — $3MM north of the $241MM tier-one threshold for the coming season. Their bottom-line payroll will depend on how that $60MM is divided over the three years of the deal, but if it’s evenly distributed, Houston would be just over $225MM in terms of actual player salary. (The luxury tax is calculated separately and based on the average annual value of all the team’s contracts.)

It’s still possible the Astros could duck back under the tax threshold. They’re reportedly telling teams they don’t intend to trade top starter Framber Valdez, but they’ve been exploring the trade market for reliever Ryan Pressly, who’s set to earn $14MM in 2025. More speculatively, they could also gauge interest in backup catcher Victor Caratini and his $6MM salary, then turn that role over to Cesar Salazar, who hit well in Triple-A and the majors this past season.

Dropping back under the tax line, however, doesn’t appear to be any kind of mandate. Owner Jim Crane said earlier in the winter that he “had the wherewithal” to cross that line and match his 2024 levels of spending if the right scenario presented itself. At the time, few envisioned that would entail trading Tucker and letting Bregman walk, but the Astros have been averse to the types of long-term megadeals both players — Tucker in particular — are expected to command. Houston hasn’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract or Jose Altuve’s six-year, $157.5MM extension under Crane’s ownership, the latter also being the largest guarantee in franchise history.

As a result, the Astros will give out their second three-year deal to a mid-30s first baseman in the past three years. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason and will still be paying Abreu $19.5MM this coming season after releasing him at the contract’s halfway point. That deal was negotiated by Crane himself and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell, as it came in the lull between the team’s dismissal of former GM James Click and the hiring of current GM Dana Brown. Astros fans may feel some trepidation about another multi-year deal for a first baseman well past his 30th birthday, though it bears mentioning that Abreu was 36 in year one of his contract; Walker will be 36 in the final season of this deal.

Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the D-backs at the end of the season. As such, he’ll cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1MM of space from their league-allotted bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the steepest penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros find themselves in that tier as a result of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they exceeded the tax threshold also means they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now-likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

As for the D-backs, they’ll receive a comp pick after the first round, because Walker’s agreement is for more than $50MM guaranteed. It’ll be a nice parting gift, but Walker’s production will be tough to replicate with in-house options. Former top-10 draft pick Pavin Smith hit well in 158 plate appearances last season, but that was his first big league success in parts of five seasons and came in a small sample. The Snakes can hope for a similar late-bloomer trajectory to the one taken by Walker, but odds are against that. They could look to affordable alternatives in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, a Josh Bell reunion) or sift through a deep trade market of first base options that includes Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and perhaps Triston Casas (though the asking price on Casas would be extreme and surely cost the D-backs some coveted young pitching).

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in advanced talks and closing in on a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Network Radio reported that an agreement was in place, pending physical. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the terms.

Widespread interest in Walker is only logical. He’s been among the most underrated players in the sport for several seasons. The 33-year-old slugger’s .251/.335/.468 slash from 2024 is a near mirror image of the broader .253/.332/.464 line he carries in nearly 3200 plate appearances dating back to 2019. At the time, it would’ve seemed utterly nonsensical to think that the Diamondbacks would be able to successfully replace perennial All-Star Paul Goldschmidt with a journeyman waiver claim, but Arizona did just that and has been rewarded handsomely.

Not only has Walker been consistently productive at the plate — 13% better than average overall, including 20% better over the past three seasons — he’s emerged as one of the game’s best defenders at his position. Walker has won three straight Gold Gloves for his work at first base. Walker’s 33 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons lead all big league first baseman by a wide margin. Matt Olson is second, at 27. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting Walker with 39 Outs Above Average — nearly double that of second-ranked Carlos Santana (20). He’s made only eight errors since 2022.

Quietly excellent as Walker has been, however, a four-year deal is a lofty ask when considering his age. He’ll turn 34 in March. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, only four position players in the past decade have secured a four-year deal beginning in their age-34 season or later: Josh Donaldson (four years, $92MM with the Twins), Ben Zobrist (four years, $56MM with the Cubs), Nelson Cruz (four years, $57MM with the Mariners) and Victor Martinez (four years, $68MM with the Tigers. Donaldson’s deal, now almost five years old, is the most recent of the bunch. Of the four, only Cruz’s contract played out well.

Suffice it to say, four years would break any recent precedent for a position player of this age. Speculatively speaking, he could go the route some other veterans have in the past to secure the additional years they seek on longer-term deals: throw in (in this instance) the fourth year at a discounted rate. General expectations for Walker have been that he’ll command something in the vicinity of $20MM per year. If he were to tack on a fourth year at, say, $8-10MM, that’d get him his fourth season and also lower the luxury-tax hit for the signing club. For many of Walker’s reported suitors, that won’t be a factor, as they’re not CBT payors anyhow. For a team like the Yankees or Astros, it could prove significant.

Walker’s asking price is likely one of the reasons that the Yankees “appear increasingly likely to go with a more inexpensive option at first base,” as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The others include the qualifying offer that’d cost them an additional two draft picks (after already punting two for Max Fried) and the plethora of options available on the free agent market  (Santana, Justin Turner, Goldschmidt) and trade market (Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Nathaniel Lowe).

Since the Cubs were known to be looking for pitching, however, it would make sense that they would at least check in on what seems to be an increasingly available trade candidate. Rumors have been swirling about Castillo’s availability in recent days, as while Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has publicly downplayed the idea of trading from Seattle’s rotation depth, it is thought that Castillo might be the most available of the starting five.  The 32-year-old Castillo is at least five years older than any of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller, and much more expensive — Castillo is owed $68.25MM in guaranteed money from 2025-27, plus a $25MM vesting option for 2028 that becomes guaranteed based on health and an innings threshold.

This salary might be the chief reason the M’s would be open to trading Castillo, as the club is known to be operating within pretty limited payroll parameters.  Divish and Jude note that the Mariners are thought to have around $15MM in spending space, and for a team with several needs to address on offense, their options for signings or other trades widen greatly if Castillo’s contract was off the books.  Freeing up some money might allow the M’s to make a more full-on pursuit of Christian Walker, who the Mariners have had “atop their wish list since the start of the offseason,” Divish and Jude write.

A deal that saw Castillo go to Wrigleyville could also logically bring at least one bat back in Seattle’s direction.  The M’s have already been linked to Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, so a swap involving the two of them (if not necessarily a one-for-one) would address both teams’ needs.  Hoerner is owed $23.5MM over the next seasons, so that represents some salary offset if Chicago absorbed all of Castillo’s contract.

On the other hand, sending Isaac Paredes to Houston in the Tucker trade package has already cost the Cubs one starting infielder, so Chicago might now be less willing to move Hoerner.  Top prospect Matt Shaw is viewed as the likeliest candidate to step in at third base in Paredes’ place, and while James Triantos is another highly-touted youngster who might be ready for the big leagues at second base, entrusting two infield jobs to rookies is a risk for the Cubs.

Getting Castillo for Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki would be a cleaner fit for Chicago in dealing from its outfield depth, but the Mariners already have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles slated for starting jobs.  The M’s have Luke Raley set for at least part-time duty at first base and Mitch Haniger penciled in at DH, as well.  This all being said, the Mariners have such a broad need for hitting that it certainly isn’t beyond Dipoto to target a big outfield bat and then get creative in either fitting that bat into the lineup, or perhaps trying to deal Raley or Haniger to land the infield help Seattle more clearly needs.

Installing Castillo alongside Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and the newly-signed Matthew Boyd would suddenly give the Cubs one of the more appealing rotations in baseball.  Plenty more pitching would be on hand as well, since acquiring Castillo would turn fifth-starter candidates Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or top prospect Cade Horton into depth arms.  Speculatively speaking, one of these younger depth arms could also be sent to Seattle in a hypothetical Castillo trade, to give the Mariners a ready-made replacement for the new vacancy in their rotation.

Still, the Mariners remain on the lookout for ways to improve an offense that finished 21st in runs scored in 2024. Reports surfaced at the beginning of the offseason that the club was looking for infield bats. Earlier this week, Dipoto confirmed that first, second, and third base are all areas of need (per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). As things stand, shortstop J.P. Crawford seems to be Seattle’s only infielder with a guaranteed everyday starting role.

According to Divish, the Mariners were aiming to check first base off their to-do list before the end of the Winter Meetings. They had previously expressed interest in both Carlos Santana and Justin Turner, and they were apparently willing to offer either veteran a one-year deal this week. Needless to say, neither fish was biting, but that doesn’t mean Dipoto has given up. On that note, Divish offered further insight into Seattle’s pursuit of Santana and Turner, reporting that the team is looking for an experienced hitter who can bat from the right side to split playing time with the lefty-batting Luke Raley. Raley hits well against righties but struggled badly in limited playing time against same-handed pitching in 2024. Turner has had neutral platoon splits throughout his career, and the switch-hitting Santana has done his best work against southpaws. Either could make a productive platoon partner for Raley.

With that said, one has to wonder if the newly minted Gold Glove winner Santana would be willing to accept anything less than a full-time job at first base. He’s coming off his best season in five years and might not be interested in a role that would involve splitting playing time. Turner, on the other hand, thrived in a first base/DH role for Seattle down the stretch in 2024. He has also made it clear that he’d be happy to return to the M’s. At the end of the regular season, he told Daniel Kramer of MLB.com in no uncertain terms, “I would love to be back and be a Mariner.”

Then again, if Santana can be persuaded to sign in Seattle, he might be the more impactful player. Thanks to his strong defense, he has outproduced Turner over the past two years according to every version of Wins Above Replacement. He’s also a year and a half younger than Turner, who turned 40 in November. To that point, Divish suggested the Mariners might be leaning toward Santana in a recent appearance on the “Daily Puck Drop” podcast, saying he believes Santana is their “priority” right now at first base.

Speaking of righty-batting, veteran first basemen, the Mariners have also expressed interest in Christian Walker. Kramer reports the team has had “conversations” about signing Walker, though he notes the three-time Gold Glove winner is probably out of their price range. Indeed, Divish suggests the Mariners have approximately $15MM to $17MM left to spend this winter, barring any trades to cut payroll. Given the fact that Walker turned down the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, he is surely looking for a contract worth more than $17MM per year. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $60MM deal for Walker on our Top 50 Free Agents list. While he could be a far more valuable addition than either Santana or Turner, that value will be reflected in his asking price.

It’s also worth pointing out that a player like Walker certainly isn’t going to split playing time with Raley. He is going to be the everyday first baseman wherever he signs. Thus, if the Mariners were to sign Walker, it would push Raley into the designated hitter role. That could be another reason the fit doesn’t make sense. Alternatively, perhaps Dipoto could package the talented and cost-controlled Raley with one of his higher-priced veterans (such as Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver) as a way to get another team to take on one of his desirable contracts. If he could pull off such a move, perhaps he could free up enough payroll to sign Walker without going over budget.

While the pitching and hitting markets aren’t exactly the same, the Bombers’ eight-year, $218MM megadeal with Max Fried is easy evidence that New York has been able to quickly pivot into the rest of its target list with Soto off the board.  First base help and lineup help in general are both needs, and signing Walker would address both issues in one fell swoop.

Fried’s deal adds another wrinkle to the Yankees’ pursuit of Walker, or any other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024 and because Fried turned down the Braves’ QO, the Yankees had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money as well as their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in order to complete the signing.  Inking Walker to a deal would cost the Yankees another $1MM in int’l pool funds, as well as two more draft picks — their third- and sixth-highest selections.

As much of a hit this could be to New York’s 2025 draft plans, Brian Cashman’s front office might view it as a necessary cost in order to capitalize on the team’s contention window.  Fried adds another top-flight arm to pair with Gerrit Cole atop a deep Yankee rotation, Aaron Judge is still arguably the best hitter in the sport, Giancarlo Stanton has a bounce-back 2024 season, and a younger core of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and (New York hopes) Jasson Dominguez can all contribute both now and in the future.

Walker would represent another big piece to this puzzle, bringing both elite first-base defense and a strong bat.  Walker is turning 34 in March but hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, plus his age might be a feature and not a bug in terms of the Yankees’ needs.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi said that a shorter-term contract might be more preferable for the Yankees than a longer deal for a younger first base option, which is why Morosi notes that Walker “is more of a priority for the Yankees than Pete Alonso would be.”

Walker, 34 in March, has been a fixture of the Diamondbacks lineup at first base since longtime franchise face Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season but has found a new gear in his early thirties. Over the past three seasons, Walker has slashed a strong .250/.322/.481 (120 wRC+) with a 20.8% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate, and 95 homers in 447 games for Arizona. He’s done that while providing high quality defense at first base, winning the NL’s Gold Glove award at the position in each of the past three campaigns. That combination of solid offense and elite defense at the position have made Walker one of the league’s most valuable commodities at first base in recent years. His 10.8 fWAR since the start of the 2022 season is tied with Yandy Diaz for fifth-best in the majors among qualified first basemen, trailing only Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Goldschmidt in that time. Meanwhile, Walker ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in wRC+ among qualified hitters at first base this year while trailing only Freeman, Harper, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in both categories.

It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could benefit from, but the Yankees in particular could use a big boost at first base. Incumbent first baseman Anthony Rizzo departed for free agency last month after a injury-marred campaign that saw him hit just .228/.301/.335 (84 wRC+) in 92 games, and the club’s internal solutions at the position are lackluster. Rookie Ben Rice struggled to a 73 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action last year, while DJ LeMahieu was one of the worst hitters in baseball this past year with a .204/.269/.259 slash line during his age-35 season. Adding Walker would improve both the club’s offense and defense in a substantial way, offering a steady solution at first base.

What’s more, the $60MM price tag over three years that MLBTR predicted Walker would land at the outset of the offseason is hardly cost-prohibitive, and should leave the Yankees with plenty of financial flexibility to stay aggressive in upgrading other areas of the roster. Third base and the outfield appear to be the most obvious places for the club to upgrade, but a pursuit of a top-flight starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried can’t be ruled out either. The Yankees have reportedly met with both players this offseason and appear to have real interest in pairing one of the two remaining aces available in free agency with Gerrit Cole atop the club’s rotation. Of the two, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the club prefers Fried over Burnes. Adding either pitcher would surely require the club to trade at least one of their existing starters, with southpaw Nestor Cortes and veteran righty Marcus Stroman standing out as the most speculated-upon trade candidates.

Turning back to the lineup, the Yankees have reported interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, which MLBTR discussed earlier this morning. One other option to fill the club’s vacancy at the hot corner could be Cardinals veteran Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this morning that the Yankees are among a “select handful” of teams that the Cards have approached regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade, though it’s unclear to what level the Yankees reciprocated that interest in a deal if they did so at all. The 33-year-old has a full no-trade clause in his deal with the Cardinals, and his ability to be choosy about his destination has seemingly contributed to a “very limited” trade market for the veteran star.

Presumably, the Yankees are one of the teams Arenado would approve a trade to if the Cardinals are broaching the subject with the club. He could be a sensible fit for the Bronx given his strong defense at third base that would form an impressive left side of the infield alongside shortstop Anthony Volpe while allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to move back to second base. With that being said, there are questions about Arenado’s offense at this stage of his career. While he’s just two years removed from finishing as a finalist for the NL MVP award, those two seasons haven’t been kind to him as he slashed just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in a combined 247 games. He’s been approximately a three-win player over the past two seasons, but with three years remaining on his contract it’s fair to wonder if further regression on either side of the ball could be in Arenado’s future.

As for the outfield, the Yankees have been connected to Teoscar Hernandez as a potential back-up for Soto, with reporting yesterday indicating the club has “serious interest” in his services. Feinsand characterizes the club’s interest in Hernandez differently, however, reporting that the club’s talks with the slugger are “very preliminary” as the club has been focused on Soto to this point in the winter. Of course, now that Soto is off the board it’s easy to imagine the club’s interest in Hernandez becoming far more serious. While no player can replace Soto’s bat in the lineup and pairing another right-handed bat with Judge and Stanton in the middle of the Yankees lineup is far from ideal, Hernandez’s 134 wRC+ in 2024 would still offer the club a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat they’ll be lacking now that Soto has moved on.

The Astros and Bregman have been dancing around each other for quite some time without finding common ground. Dana Brown was hired as general manager in January of 2023 and almost immediately talked about signing core players to extensions. They did get new deals done with Jose Altuve and Cristian Javier but not with Bregman or Kyle Tucker. Brown and owner Jim Crane have continued to talk about their desire to re-sign Bregman in the almost two years since then but without getting pen to paper.

The problem seems to be the organization’s long-standing aversion to big deals. Altuve’s $151MM extension in 2018 is still the largest guarantee they’ve ever given out on any contract and the six years on the Yordan Alvarez extension is their longest pact. They’ve let players like Gerrit Cole, George Springer and Carlos Correa go get their big paydays elsewhere as opposed to re-signing them.

On top of that, there’s the short-term payroll question. They payed the competitive balance tax in 2024, technically for the first time. They did go over the line in 2020 but the penalties were put on pause for the COVID-shortened season. RosterResource projects their CBT number at $234MM for next year, just barely below the $241MM base threshold.

Back in October, Brown spoke of the finances being a little tight and said “We may have to get a little bit creative” about spending. Crane struck a slightly more optimistic tone about the money in November, saying that the club has “the wherewithal to do it if we need to do it” but also cautioned that they didn’t want to go crazy.

McTaggart says the Astros have offered Bregman a six-year deal worth $156MM, which aligns with previous reports. That would eclipse their previous record but just barely and it’s possible Bregman can top that elsewhere. MLBTR predicted he could land a guarantee of $182MM and he is reportedly looking for something in the range of $200MM. Bregman has reported interest from clubs like the Blue Jays, Phillies and Red Sox, with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently taking a detailed look at his market in a post for MLBTR subscribers.

With a non-zero chance of Bregman ending up leaving Houston, the club naturally needs to at least ponder alternate realities, with Walker one such thing they seem to have considered. It’s a logical consideration given that first base is a weak spot for the club. José Abreu crashed and burned as an Astro, getting released midway through the 2024 season. Jon Singleton picked up most of his playing time and was adequate but not outstanding. He slashed .234/.321/.386 last year for a wRC+ of 105 but with subpar defense, leading to an essentially replacement level season.

Walker is coming off a remarkably consistent three-year run with the Diamondbacks. He got into 160 games in 2022 and hit 36 home runs, then followed it up with 33 home runs in 157 games the following year. In 2024, he was on roughly the same pace but spent a small amount of time on the injured list, limited to 26 homers in 130 games. He finished each season with a wRC+ in the 119-122 range, producing a combined .250/.332/.481 batting line in those three seasons.

He’s also considered a strong defender at first base, with career tallies of 43 Defensive Runs Saved and 57 Outs Above Average. FanGraphs gave him 3.9 wins above replacement in 2022 and 2023. He would have been back in that range in 2024 if not for the aforementioned injury absence, ending up at 3.0 fWAR.

But since Walker turns 34 in March, his contract will be limited. MLBTR predicted him for a three-year deal with a $60MM guarantee, though it’s also possible he will be limited to a two-year pact, depending on how his market develops.

That price point would perhaps be more attractive to the Astros than the kind of deal Bregman will eventually sign, though there would also be drawbacks. Walker rejected a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, meaning he is tied to the associated penalties. Since the Astros just paid the CBT in 2024, they would have to surrender their second- and fifth-best picks in the upcoming draft as well as $1MM of international bonus pool space. Also, after just getting burned by signing Abreu, they may not want to sign another mid-3os first baseman to a notable deal, especially when they’re still paying Abreu for another year.

The players who rejected the offer:

• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Ranked 13th on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, Walker is projected for a three-year, $60MM deal, with the shorter-term nature of that contract reflecting the fact that Walker will be 34 on Opening Day.  Even as he gets deeper into his 30’s, however, Walker hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down.  Over the last three seasons, the first baseman has hit .250/.332/.481 with 95 home runs over 1880 plate appearances with Arizona, which works out to a solid 120 wRC+.  On top of that offense comes standout defense, as Walker has won the last three NL Gold Gloves and Fielding Bible awards in 2022-23 for his superb work at first base.

Because Walker will likely be getting a relatively short contract, any number of teams could conceivably be in the market for his services beyond just the usual big spenders.  This could help the Diamondbacks (who have roughly $157.5MM already on the books for 2025) stay in the bidding, and one would imagine Arizona might have some extra advantage since Walker has stated that he has enjoyed his time with the D’Backs.  Since Walker was issued a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject, a new team would have to give up draft picks and possibly international bonus pool money to sign him, whereas the Diamondbacks would face no penalty for re-signing their own free agent.

Retaining Walker would immediately patch a big hole in an Arizona lineup that could also be losing Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk in free agency.  Pavin Smith hit well in 2024 and might be an interesting backup plan (in at least a platoon capacity) at first base if Walker left, though in the event that Walker returned, the D’Backs could then more comfortably view Smith a replacement for Pederson’s left-handed bat.

The Yankees also have a clear need at first base since Anthony Rizzo isn’t expected to be re-signed, and DJ LeMahieu has been in sharp decline over the last two seasons.  Walker would bring more pop into New York’s lineup, and shore up the infield defense that suddenly became an issue during the World Series.  (For what it’s worth, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald both predicted Walker would sign with the Yankees within the top 50 list’s projections.)

Signing a QO-rejecting free agent comes at a particularly stiff price for the Yankees, as since they exceeded the luxury tax threshold, they’d have to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus money.  This isn’t necessarily a roadblock for New York if the club particularly likes what Walker can offer, and the Yankees might have an edge of their own on the qualifying offer front since they wouldn’t have to give up picks to re-sign Juan Soto.  It has been speculated that the Yankees might turn to Alonso as the backup plan if Soto goes elsewhere, yet even in that scenario, New York might still prefer Walker due to the lower price tag and greater all-around value, as Alonso is only a passable defender.

Washington is perhaps the most interesting of the three known suitors, as unlike the D’Backs and Yankees, it has been a while since the Nats were in contention.  The club’s rebuild process has brought some very interesting younger building blocks (James Wood, CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, MacKenzie Gore, Luis Garcia Jr., etc.) to the District, and with Wood and Crews now in the majors, there have been rumblings that the Nats are ready to turn the corner back towards contention.  Signing Walker would have some echos of the Nationals’ signing of Jayson Werth during the 2010-11 offseason, as that big-ticket addition signaled that the Nats were going to start competing after years of rebuilding.

President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has openly stated that the Nationals are looking for more pop in the middle of the lineup, and first base is the logical position for such an upgrade.  Washington received a cumulative 0.3 bWAR from their first basemen in 2024, and the club has already started clearing space at the position by parting ways with Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses.

Since the Nationals weren’t luxury tax payors and don’t receive revenue sharing, they face the mid-range penalty for signing a qualified free agent — their second-highest 2025 draft pick and $500K in international pool money.  The overall payroll impact for Walker can be easily absorbed since Washington has only Keibert Ruiz’s contract on the books, in addition to the two remaining years’ worth of salary still owed to Stephen Strasburg.

With the offseason just days old, there are of course virtually limitless options to explore via free agency and trade. Morosi reports that Seattle is among the teams to have evaluated Hyeseong Kim, the star second baseman of the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes. Kim, 25, is scheduled to be posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. Rosenthal lists a reunion with Justin Turner as something Seattle could pursue. He cautions against the likelihood of the Mariners spending to the levels necessary to add longtime division rival Alex Bregman or (to a lesser extent) first baseman Christian Walker.

Kim, 26 in January, hit .326/.383/.458 with 11 home runs, 30 steals, an 8.3% walk rate and just a 10.9% strikeout rate for the Heroes this past season. He’s been a plus hitter three straight seasons in the KBO but is more of a contact-, speed- and defense-oriented player, as he’s not considered to have much home run pop. This past season’s 11 round-trippers were a career-high. Turner, of course, finished out the 2024 season in Seattle after coming over from the Blue Jays in a trade. He batted .264/.363/.403 in 190 plate appearances as a Mariner. His overall .259/.354/.383 slash is a ways from peak levels, and Turner will turn 40 later this month. That said, he was still a productive big league hitter this past season.

The Mariners’ expected focus on infield bats — and their flexibility to look at multiple positions — was laid out in our Mariners Offseason Outlook. As noted in that piece a few weeks back, Kim and Gleyber Torres are two particularly interesting options at second base, and both are likely to be relatively affordable. Former Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim could technically be a fit at second or third base, but he’s likely to miss the beginning of the season following his recent shoulder surgery and derives a good bit of his value from his plus glovework. He’d be a less-than-ideal fit if the goal is to bolster the offense from day one.

Meanwhile, signing Bregman or Willy Adames (perhaps with eye toward moving him to third base) would represent a major philosophical departure from the Mariners’ past mode of operation. The M’s have only given out one multi-year deal to a free agent position player under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto — that being last winter’s two-year, $24MM pact to Mitch Garver. Rosenthal suggests that signing a $100MM+ deal could be outside the team’s budget, but even beyond that, it’s simply not how Dipoto has historically operated.

The trade market could present various alternatives. The Rays will likely listen to offers on Yandy Diaz, making him one speculative fit at first base. He’d align well with Seattle’s desire to reduce their MLB-worst strikeout rate and is slated to earn $10MM next year with a $12MM club option for 2026. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, owed $10.5MM with an $11.5MM club option for 2026, is another on-paper fit. He wouldn’t reduce the team’s strikeout rate, but he’s a potential impact bat with multiple years of club control. Cleveland could listen to offers on slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.

However things play out, the M’s will be looking to once again redraw an offense that has struggled to make contact at one of the most glaring rates in the league. In addition to tying the Rockies with an MLB-high 26.8% strikeout rate, Mariners hitters had the league’s third-lowest overall contact rate (74%) and were tied for MLB’s second-worst contact rate on swings at pitches within the strike zone (82.9%). The Seattle lineup actually chased pitches off the plate at the fourth-lowest rate in MLB … but their contact rate on those swings was still the third-worst.

• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
• Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Luis Severino (Mets)
• Nick Martinez (Reds)

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

National League winners….

• Catcher: Patrick Bailey (1st Gold Glove)…..Finalists: Gabriel Moreno, Will Smith
• First base: Christian Walker (3rd)…..Finalists: Bryce Harper, Matt Olson
• Second base: Brice Turang (1st)…..Finalists: Ketel Marte, Bryson Stott
• Third base: Matt Chapman, (5th)…..Finalists: Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon
• Shortstop: Ezequiel Tovar (1st)…..Finalists: Dansby Swanson, Masyn Winn
• Left field: Ian Happ (3rd)…..Finalists: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Brandon Marsh
• Center field: Brenton Doyle (2nd)…..Finalists: Blake Perkins, Jacob Young
• Right field: Sal Frelick (1st)…..Finalists: Jake McCarthy, Mike Yastrzemski
• Pitcher: Chris Sale (1st)…..Finalists: Luis Severino, Zack Wheeler
• Utility: Jared Triolo (1st)…..Finalists: Brendan Donovan, Enrique Hernandez

American League winners….

• Catcher: Cal Raleigh (1st)…..Finalists: Freddy Fermin, Jake Rogers
• First base: Carlos Santana (1st)…..Finalists: Nathaniel Lowe, Ryan Mountcastle
• Second base: Andres Gimenez (3rd)…..Finalists: Nicky Lopez, Marcus Semien
• Third base: Alex Bregman (1st)…..Finalists: Ernie Clement, Jose Ramirez
• Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr. (1st)…..Finalists: Brayan Rocchio, Anthony Volpe
• Left field: Steven Kwan (3rd)…..Finalists: Colton Cowser, Alex Verdugo
• Center field: Daulton Varsho (1st)…..Finalists: Jarren Duran, Jake Meyers
• Right field: Wilyer Abreu (1st)…..Finalists: Jo Adell, Juan Soto
• Pitcher: Seth Lugo (1st)…..Finalists: Griffin Canning, Cole Ragans
• Utility: Dylan Moore (1st)…..Finalists: Willi Castro, Mauricio Dubon

Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.

Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.

Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.

As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.

That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.

Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.

The Snakes get one of their lineup regulars back but lose another. Walker hit 23 home runs and produced a batting line of .254/.338/.476 before landing on the IL, production that translated to a 122 wRC+. He also routinely gets strong grades for his defense at first base, so he’s been worth 2.7 wins above replacement on the year despite his absence, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

Gurriel departed Sunday game due to some tightness in his calf and was sent for an MRI. It’s unclear exactly how much time the club expects him to miss, but the IL placement suggests he needs at least a week or so to rest up. He has 17 home runs and a line of .274/.316/.428 this year, leading to a 104 wRC+. He has strong defensive grades in the outfield as well, leading to a 1.8 fWAR tally on the year.

Subbing in Walker for Gurriel is a slight upgrade for the club in a vacuum, but it will be an interesting roster fit for manager Torey Lovullo to work out. The Snakes acquired Josh Bell to help cover first base in Walker’s absence and he has played well since that trade, with a .283/.356/.453 line and 125 wRC+. The designated hitter slot is usually taken by Joc Pederson, who is hitting .280/.400/.533 for a 157 wRC+ this year.

Pederson is faring well in his limited looks against southpaws this year but has notable career splits and has generally been shielded from opposing lefties. Bell is a switch-hitter and should at least be able to take the short side of a platoon with Pederson, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to get more playing time beyond that. Pederson is a poor defender and hasn’t been put out into the field at all this year. He got 204 innings in the field with the Giants last year but produced -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -4 Outs Above Average in that limited time.

With Gurriel out, the Snakes have an opportunity to move Pederson out there while opening the DH slot for Bell/Walker, but they will have to weigh the defensive hit against the offensive gain. Randal Grichuk has strong numbers against lefty pitchers this year, 128 wRC+ against them compared to a 96 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Theoretically, he could take the field against southpaws with Bell as the DH, then Pederson could take the field against righties. Though perhaps they might simply prefer to have Grichuk out there since he’s a stronger defender than Pederson, perhaps factoring in the pitcher and opposing lineup, calculating whether they think the left fielder will see a lot of action on a given day.