MLBTR readers who want a full refresher on the situation can check out these posts from March. The 2023-2024 offseason was miserable for players, as various teams dialed back spending, often citing declining TV revenue as the reason. Several players signed contracts that were far below initial expectations, most prominently the “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger.

On the heels of that winter, frustration boiled up within the players and they eventually appeared to be split into two camps. One camp attempted to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer with Harry Marino, and it was suggested by some that executive director Tony Clark also would have been ousted in the event Meyer was replaced. Ultimately, those efforts stalled out and the Clark/Meyer duo stayed atop the union’s leadership structure.

Marino had previously been the head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers, the group that unionized minor league players. The minor leaguers were placed under the MLBPA umbrella, with Marino and Meyer then negotiating with MLB the first ever collective bargaining agreement for minor league players. Minor leaguers received 34 of the 72 seats on the MLBPA executive board, but Marino and Meyer reportedly did not get along, with Marino leaving the union at some point.

Though Marino was out of the union, it seems he was well liked enough in some circles that this attempt was made to install him into a very prominent position. Despite the frustrating winter for players, Meyer had made some notable gains for players in the 2022 CBA, his first in this role. The competitive balance tax tiers all went up, though a fourth tier was added. The minimum salaries were also raised in notable fashion, and a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players was created, among other advancements for players.

Regardless, the frustration was real and significant enough to threaten Meyer and perhaps Clark in the leadership structure, though they ultimately survived. Back in March, Flaherty seemed to express regret about the way things played out, though he also seemed surprised by the way Marino proceeded.

“There was one phone call that went on that I put Tony in a bad position in, where Harry tried to push his way through,” Flaherty told Ken Rosenthal at the time. “He tried to pressure Tony, and Tony stood strong, said this is not going to happen. Tony has done nothing but stand strong in all of this. That was something I would love to take back. I never wanted Harry to be in Bruce’s position.” Flaherty repeated that he was not trying to replace Meyer. “I said he’s not somebody to replace Bruce, but if you guys want to listen to him, we can continue this conversation. Things got way out of hand after that.” Flaherty then went on to compliment Meyer for the job he had done with the recent CBA.

The MLBPA votes on those subcommittee spots every two years. The union announced this week a new subcommittee consisting of Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Pete Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Marcus Semien and Brent Suter. Semien and Suter are the lone holdovers from the previous subcommittee.

As noted by Drellich, the subcommittee is significant because key matters are often settled with a 38-person vote. Each of the 30 teams have a representative with one vote, and the eight subcommittee members get the remaining eight votes. Those 30 team reps vote on the eight subcommittee members. The eight players selected this week will have their positions for the next two years, which aligns with the end of the current CBA, as that agreement goes until Dec. 2, 2026.

All relations between MLB and the MLBPA have appeared to be contentious in recent years, from CBA negotiations to the COVID-related shutdown to on-field rule changes. The most recent CBA involved a lockout of more than three months and came perilously close to canceling games. On the other hand, the two sides agreed in the middle of the 2024 campaign to redirect some CBT money towards teams that had lost broadcast revenue, a fairly rare instance of a notable financial decision made outside normal CBA talks.

With another round of collective bargaining due two years from now, the possibility of another lockout is also on the horizon. The league and the union will have plenty to work out, including the ongoing broadcast uncertainty, the international draft and other big-picture issues along with the typical bargaining topics like salaries, taxes and revenue sharing. As such, the developments within the union will have notable ramifications for the baseball world.

There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.

Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons  (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.

As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.

Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.

Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).

Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.

Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yet, precisely because of all that talent, the Orioles might also be sellers at the deadline. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Baltimore is willing to discuss trades for Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, a pair of veterans who have been with this team since it was one of the worst in baseball. It’s rare to see a team with World Series aspirations trade proven, cost-controlled players at the deadline, but the Orioles can afford to part with Mountcastle and Mullins without compromising anything. Indeed, they might get even stronger by clearing up room on a crowded roster.

It wasn’t so long ago that Mullins was one of Baltimore’s best players. He earned down-ballot MVP votes during a career year in 2021 and followed that up with a solid all-around season in 2022. However, his offensive and defensive numbers both took a turn for the worse in 2023, and that trend has continued into 2024, his age-29 season. Mullins is batting .214 with a 79 wRC+. Despite his perfect fielding percentage, he has put up just 1 OAA (he had six last year and nine the year before). In addition, his arm strength has fallen below average, according to Statcast. Just about the only area where Mullins has provided above-average production is on the bases. He has 16 steals and ranks among the top 15 AL players in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric (BsR).

It might seem far too soon for the Orioles to give up on a 29-year-old center fielder with MVP votes in his past, but given the sheer amount of talented outfielders at Baltimore’s disposal, the team can hardly afford to keep giving so much playing time to a player who is providing so little. Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad all deserve regular playing time, while Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby are a couple of promising options at Triple-A. There aren’t a ton of center fielders in that mix, but Cowser has played phenomenal defense in left this season; he could slide over to center and open up his corner spot for a bigger bat.

Mountcastle, 27, is having a perfectly serviceable season, with 12 home runs and a 109 wRC+. Those aren’t bad numbers, by any means, but contending teams generally have higher expectations at first base, and Mountcastle’s 111 wRC+ over the past four seasons doesn’t exactly suggest that better days are ahead. Thus, if Mountcastle is preventing players like Kjerstad, and eventually Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, from getting regular playing time, he might be doing more harm than good for the Orioles.

Still, considering his consistently above-average offensive performance in all five seasons of his big league career, Mountcastle would be a welcome addition to plenty of contending teams. With All-Star first basemen Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Yandy Díaz unlikely to be dealt, Mountcastle, under team control through 2026, could be an interesting (and cheaper) alternative for a team in need of a right-handed bat. Meanwhile, Mullins could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for a team that thinks it can help him rediscover his All-Star form. He is not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season.

The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade either Mountcastle or Mullins, and, perhaps they won’t unless GM Mike Elias receives an overwhelming offer. However, trading one or both of the veterans could allow the O’s to recoup some of the young talent they will part with in other deadline trades. While neither player will command a massive return, Baltimore might still prefer to swap them for prospects rather than continue to run them out in place of better options or, eventually, stash them on the bench.

No team is perfect, though, and the O's go into deadline season with a couple questions. Their rotation depth has taken hits with the losses of John Means and Tyler Wells. The back end of the bullpen could be a bit shaky, especially if Danny Coulombe misses time with an elbow injury. Most surprisingly, the Orioles have had one of the least productive center field situations in the majors. Cedric Mullins was a top ten finisher in MVP voting a couple years back. He's now arguably the only question mark in one of the game's deepest lineups.

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Fortunately for O’s fans, it seems the situation is relatively minor. Manager Brandon Hyde called Mullins’ exit “precautionary” following the game (X link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Concern is low enough that the team isn’t even planning on performing an MRI or any other imaging to determine if there’s a more serious issue at play. Mullins is considered day-to-day for now, according to Hyde.

The 29-year-old Mullins has been a steady contributor on both sides of the ball for the Orioles over the past three seasons, although the 2023 campaign was his worst and, perhaps not coincidentally, least healthy of the three. Mullins had a pair of IL stints last season due to right groin strains, finishing out the season with a .233/.305/.416 slash (99 wRC+), 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 116 games. He missed only nine total games the two seasons prior, batting a combined .274/.339/.460 with 46 big flies and 64 steals. If there’s any sort of setback, infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo and top outfield prospect Colton Cowser are on hand as options to see time in center field.

Mateo has traditionally been a shortstop, but the team has already suggested that the wealth of infield talent on the Baltimore roster will likely push Mateo into the outfield more frequently in 2024. The fleet-footed Mateo’s primary spot in recent years, shortstop, sounds as though it’ll be handled primarily by reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson in 2024. While Henderson is capable of playing both shortstop and third base at a high level, the 22-year-old said yesterday that his playing time would be “leaning more toward shortstop” (X link via the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich).

Henderson has played shortstop, third base and (much more briefly) second base so far in the big leagues. He split his time between the two left-side infield positions nearly evenly in 2023, logging 594 innings at third base and 584 at shortstop. Defensive metrics touted his glovework at both spots, but he drew stronger marks at shortstop (particularly from Defensive Runs Saved, which pegged him at +10). Third base, then, will likely be left to a combination of Jordan Westburg, Ramon Urias and prospect Coby Mayo, though Mateo could also see time there. Current No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday has been playing second base this spring, while each of Westburg and Urias can play basically anywhere in the infield. Mayo’s primary position is third base, though there’s some thought he could eventually move to first base or an outfield corner. Regardless, he’s not yet on the 40-man roster.

Of course, a substantial part of the focus in Orioles camp right now is on right-hander Kyle Bradish, who’s currently attempting a rest/rehab approach to mending a sprain in his right ulnar collateral ligament. Bradish had a platelet-rich plasma injection before the O’s even publicly announced the injury, and Weyrich writes that he’s been throwing pain-free from flat ground.

While general manager Mike Elias struck an optimistic tone, he also preached caution and declined to place a timeline on the right-hander’s potential return. Bradish himself noted that follow-up MRIs have shown “accelerated healing” of the ligament so far, Weyrich writes, though that doesn’t yet mean he’s dodged a long-term absence. Bradish has yet to throw off a mound and currently isn’t throwing at full intensity. The early results are perhaps cause for some cautious optimism, but there’s a ways to go in the process.

For the time being, it doesn’t seem as though Bradish’s injury will prompt the Orioles to make another notable acquisition. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com downplayed the possibility of the Orioles signing a big-name free agent, writing that the team appears satisfied with its depth at present. Baltimore picked up Julio Teheran on a minor league deal late last week and could give him a look early in the season, but Kubatko more specifically noted that he’d be “floored” to see the O’s pursue an opt-out-laden deal with a top free agent like Jordan Montgomery.

The shortstop position in Boston has been in flux since it was reported in January that Story had undergone internal brace surgery on his right elbow. They’ve rotated various players through the position in his absence, including Enrique Hernández, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes and others. The Red Sox have a collective .216/.272/.322 batting line from the position, which translates to a wRC+ of 59, placing them 27th out of the 30 clubs in the league.

Story is a career .268/.336/.513 hitter and would certainly be a boost if he could come back at that level, though it’s no guarantee that he will. He hit .251/.329/.471 in his final year in Colorado and then .238/.303/.434 last year. After missing all of this season so far, it remains to be seen what form he will be in when he gets back. The Sox are currently three games out of a playoff spot and even a diminished version of Story should be an upgrade over the production they’ve had from the shortstop position thus far.

Some more notes from the toughest division in the league…

• The Orioles placed outfielder Cedric Mullins on the injured list earlier this week due to a groin strain, his second trip to the IL this year for that injury. Just the day prior, he had said he was hoping to avoid the IL, which made it fair to expect this stint would be minimal. That may not be the case, however, with Mullins providing more details to the media yesterday. He said that new symptoms emerged once his soreness went away, per Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner, with no timeline for his return right now. He said he’s hopeful of returning for the back end of the season, per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball. That murkier timeline is surely an unpleasant development for the O’s, as Mullins continue to be an impact player when healthy. He’s hit .259/.347/.454 this year for a wRC+ of 123 and stolen 14 bases. His progress in the weeks to come will hopefully provide some more clarity but it doesn’t seem like an immediate return is likely.
• Blue Jays reliever Chad Green is set to begin a rehab assignment on Saturday, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The Jays signed Green in the offseason to a convoluted deal, knowing that he wouldn’t be an option in the first half after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. He’s now rehabbing at an interesting time of the season, with the trade deadline just over the horizon. The righty has 272 appearances under his belt with a 3.17 ERA,  32.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. All contending clubs are looking for relief help at this time of year but Green’s impending return gives the Jays a chance to have that bullpen boost come from within. They are currently 54-43 and tied with the Astros for the second Wild Card spot. Green’s return will also give the club a couple of months to evaluate his status before deciding on the layered option structure of his contract. They first have to decide on triggering a three-year, $27MM option with $1MM in bonuses. If they decline, Green can exercise a 2024 player option with a $6.25MM salary and $2MM in bonuses. If he declines that, the Jays can trigger a two-year, $21MM option with $1MM in bonuses.

Mullins has been dealing with this groin situation for quite a while, as he was also on the injured list from May 30 to June 24, costing him almost a month of the season. He was able to return to the club in recent weeks but has missed the past few games as the issue cropped back up again.

It doesn’t appear as though Mullins is slated for an extended absence. As recently as yesterday, he said he was hoping to be back in the lineup this week and avoid the injured list, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. But it now seems the club will give him some time to rest up and hopefully get it over and done with. Since IL stints can be backdated by three days, as the O’s have done, he can potentially return in a week if all goes well.

Mullins has nine home runs on the year and is hitting .259/.347/.454 for a wRC+ of 122. He’s also stolen 14 bases and has provided strong center field defense. With him out of action in recent days, the center field duties have primarily gone to Aaron Hicks, who is in there again today. Though he struggled with the Yankees for years, he’s hit a strong .263/.366/.474 in 36 games since joining the Orioles.

The O’s are firmly in the playoff race, currently just one game back of the Rays in the American League East. They currently hold the top Wild Card spot in the AL and are 4.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays, who have the second slot. Playing without Mullins for the next little bit isn’t ideal but there’s nothing to indicate he’s slated for a lengthy time away from the club and perhaps Hicks can soften the blow by continuing his recent resurgence.

Such a move would be a major departure from the club’s typical model, though president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his front office have shown a willingness to be more aggressive in recent years. Trading promising right-hander Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz ahead of the 2021 trade deadline, extending Wander Franco on an 11-year deal that offseason, and pursuing Freddie Freeman in free agency are all signs from the relatively recent past that the Rays could be willing to take bigger swings in their pursuit of a World Series championship, and there’s no acquisition that would move the needle more than Ohtani.

While the club certainly has the pieces necessary to swing a deal for Ohtani between a farm system that ranks 8th in the majors per Fangraphs and a deep group of position players at the big league level, Topkin cautions that the Rays are highly unlikely to enter a bidding war for Ohtani as the club wouldn’t be able to retain the superstar in free agency. Between that unwillingness to beat out other potential suitors like the Yankees and Dodgers for Ohtani and the considerable chance that the Angels don’t move him at all, as they’re currently sitting just one game under .500 and five games back of a Wild Card berth, Ohtani in a Rays uniform certainly seems unlikely.

More from around the AL East…

• Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins exited yesterday’s game with right quad tightness, as noted by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Mullins is currently considered day-to-day, and the club will check in with him today to determine the severity of the injury. Manager Brandon Hyde expressed optimism following yesterday’s game, telling reporters (including Kubatko) that the club is “hoping we caught a break there.” Fortunately for the Orioles, they boast a deep group of position players that can help cover for Mullins in the event he misses time, though properly replacing a strong defensive center fielder with a 123 wRC+ is easier said than done.
• Sticking with the Orioles, the club has been taking things slowly with first baseman Ryan Mountcastle as he returns from a month on the injured list due to vertigo. While Mountcastle has looked good in limited time since coming off the IL, with a single and a double in five trips to the plate, Kubatko notes that his ability to reclaim a full-time role has been further complicated by the emergence of Ryan O’Hearn as a legitimate starting option. In 156 plate appearances this season, O’Hearn has slashed an impressive .310/.359/.528 with a wRC+ of 143, albeit in a strictly platoon role. Though Mountcastle currently seems poised to see most of his starts come against southpaws, Hyde indicated that setup may not be permanent, telling reporters that he’s “sure” Mountcastle will get some starts against same-handed pitching and that “we’ll see how the second half goes.”
• Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano exited the All-Star game last week due to lower back tightness and has since undergone an MRI, as relayed by SportsCentre’s Scott Mitchell. Manager John Schneider told reporters, including Mitchell, that the imaging came back clean and Romano is currently considered day-to-day. Romano has established himself as one of the league’s best closers over the past four seasons, pitching to a 2.21 ERA (190 ERA+) and a 3.01 FIP while racking up 87 saves. In the event the right-hander is unavailable, Erik Swanson and Yimi Garcia appear to be the most likely candidates to handle the ninth.

Mullins missed just short of four weeks recovering from a right groin strain suffered when he was trying to beat out a grounder to first base.  Fortunately, Mullins had a pretty straightforward recovery process that included three minor league rehab games, and he’ll now get back into action with an impressive 45-29 Orioles team.

The outfielder has been a big part of that success, hitting .263/.356/.479 with eight homers over 224 plate appearances this season.  A .319 xwOBA (well under his .362 wOBA) does hint at regression, especially since Mullins’ hard-contact rate is below average, but Mullins has traditionally outperformed his xwOBA over the last few seasons.  His 12.5% walk rate is also a career best, adding a new dimension to Mullins’ work at the plate.

Despite losing Mullins for four weeks and Ryan Mountcastle for the last two weeks, the Orioles have kept winning even without these two regulars in the lineup.  In replacing Mullins, the O’s signed veteran Aaron Hicks, who has experienced a resurgence since his arrival in Baltimore.  The Yankees released Hicks in late May to end his eight-season run in the Bronx, marked mostly in recent years by injuries and a severe lack of production.  However, Hicks has rebounded to the change of scenery, hitting .310/.412/.552 over his 68 PA in an Orioles uniform.

While Mullins isn’t in danger of being Wally Pipp’ed out of the center field job, Hicks’ production will certainly merit more playing time, giving the O’s a nice problem to have in figuring out how to juggle their several quality position players.  Hicks could take some at-bats away from Anthony Santander in right field and the DH spot is somewhat available, though the Orioles like to give Adley Rutschman plenty of DH time in order to keep him fresh and to keep his bat in the lineup.

Hicks, 33, quickly finds a new landing spot after being released by the Yankees last week. That move was prompted by a tepid performance over the past two-plus seasons. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Hicks has hit .209/.315/.310 for a wRC+ of 83, indicating he’s been 17% below league average in that time. That includes an even worse .188/.263/.261 showing here in 2023.

Prior to that, however, he had been an all-around contributor. From 2017 to 2020, he hit a much stronger .247/.362/.457 for a wRC+ of 123. He combined that with 26 stolen bases and solid defense, much of that in center field. He was worth 8.7 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, over those three full seasons plus the shortened 2020 campaign.

In the midst of that strong run, the Yankees placed a bet on Hicks by signing him to a seven-year, $70MM extension going into 2019. While the first couple seasons of the deal were fairly smooth sailing, Hicks’ performance fell off, as mentioned. That caused the Yanks to cut bait, even though there’s still more than two years remaining on the contract. He’s making $10.5MM this year, with roughly $7MM left to be paid out, and a $9.5MM salary in each of the next two years. The Yanks will remain on the hook for almost all of that, as well as a $1MM buyout on the 2026 club option.

That will allow the Orioles to bring Hicks aboard and pay him only the prorated league minimum salary for any time he spends on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the Yankees pay. The O’s will be hoping that a change of scenery can help Hicks look more like the 2017-2020 version of himself as opposed to what he’s shown recently. It’s also possible that there have been reasons for his struggles. He only played 32 games in 2021 due to a wrist injury, then he tried to come back healthier and leaner in 2022. He spoke openly about how he felt that approach deprived him of his power, despite keeping him healthy enough to play 130 games last year. He only hit eight home runs on the year, compared to a career high of 27 in 2018. This year, he only had scattered playing time as the Yanks tried out various younger players in the outfield mix.

There will be essentially no financial risk to the O’s as they bring Hicks into the fold and see if he can move past those circumstances and perhaps find better results. Despite the low cost, there is still the risk that his poor results continue, but it seems they are willing to take that risk in order to try to deal with the absence of Mullins. It’s unclear exactly how long Mullins will be sidelined by this groin injury, but it will be at least 10 days. General manager Mike Elias tells reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that he’s hoping it will be measured in weeks and not months.

It will be a blow to the club for as long as he’s out, whatever the eventual length of his IL stint. He’s been a key member of the Baltimore lineup, going back to his 2021 breakout. Since the start of that season, he’s hit .273/.341/.463 for a wRC+ of 122 while also stealing 77 bases and providing quality defense in center. Even a bounceback from Hicks will still be a drop-off from that kind of excellent production.

Time will tell exactly how much playing time Hicks gets. As a switch-hitter, he could perhaps take the large side of a platoon alongside right-handed hitters like Austin Hays and Ryan McKenna, with switch-hitter Anthony Santander also in the mix. Hicks has plenty of center field experience but has been more of a left fielder in recent years. Hays, meanwhile, is considered capable of playing center but has spent more time in the corners recently in deference to Mullins.

More will be known about Mullins’ condition after he undergoes testing, but it certainly looks like he’ll be headed to the 10-day injured list, and the only hope is that his strain is of the relatively mild variety.  In the interim, the Orioles will have to make do without their team leader in fWAR (1.8), and a player who has been a somewhat underrated all-around contributor since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Over 224 plate appearances this season, Mullins has hit .263/.356/.479 with eight homers and 13 steals (in 15 chances).  That translates to a 133 wRC+, which is only slightly behind Mullins’ career-best 136 wRC+ mark over 675 PA in 2021.  It’s worth noting that Mullins’ .362 wOBA far outpaces his .318 wOBA this year because his hard-contact numbers are below average, but (ironically, given the circumstances of today’s injury) Mullins’ excellent speed has often allowed him to turn that soft contact into base hits.  The outfielder’s strikeout and rate walks are well above average, and Mullins’ 11.8% walk rate is easily his career best, and a nice improvement for a player who has sometimes struggled to consistently get on base.

Offense is only part of the story for Mullins, who is also a standout defender in center field.  The Outs Above Average metric has always loved his glovework, and while the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics are a bit more mixed over the years, he got unanimously positive grades across the board for his center field work in 2022.

Replacing Mullins in the event of a longer-term injury will be very difficult for the Orioles, but the team has enough outfield options to get by if he is only sidelined for a couple or weeks.  Ryan McKenna and Austin Hays are the only other players besides Mullins to see any action in Baltimore’s center field since the start of the 2021 season, and since Hays is already getting regular action in left field, so the O’s might just go with a platoon of McKenna and Terrin Vavra up the middle.

Baltimore has top outfield prospects Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers down at Triple-A, though both are themselves currently sidelined with injuries.  The Orioles could turn to their prospect depth in another fashion, as The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka suggests Joey Ortiz could be recalled, which shifts Adam Frazier into the outfield mix with Hays, McKenna, and Vavra.  Perhaps the simplest move would be for the Orioles to select the contract of Daz Cameron from Triple-A, as the former first-rounder is hitting well at Triple-A in his first season in the organization.

Without further ado…

Angels

• Glenn Albanese Jr.
• Jaime Barria
• Gustavo Campero
• Alan Carter
• Jhonathan Diaz
• Carlos Estevez
• David Fletcher
• Jake Kalish
• D’Shawn Knowles
• Shohei Ohtani
• Jose Quijada
• Luis Rengifo
• Gerardo Reyes
• Patrick Sandoval
• Mike Trout
• Gio Urshela
• Cesar Valdez
• Zack Weiss
• Aaron Whitefield

Astros

• Bryan Abreu
• Jose Altuve
• Ronel Blanco
• Luis Garcia
• Colton Gordon
• Cristian Javier
• Martin Maldonado
• Rafael Montero
• Hector Neris
• Jeremy Pena
• Ryan Pressly
• Andre Scrubb
• Kyle Tucker
• Jose Urquidy
• Derek West

Athletics

• Denzel Clarke
• Jordan Diaz
• Jake Fishman
• Zack Gelof
• James Gonzalez
• Adrian Martinez
• Joshwan Wright

Blue Jays

• Jose Berrios
• Jiorgeny Casimiri
• Yimi Garcia
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• Spencer Horwitz
• Alejandro Kirk
• Otto Lopez
• Damiano Palmegiani

Braves

• Ronald Acuna Jr.
• Luis De Avila
• Roel Ramirez
• Alan Rangel
• Eddie Rosario
• Chadwick Tromp

Brewers

• Willy Adames
• Sal Frelick
• Alex Hall
• Matt Hardy
• Joel Payamps
• Rowdy Tellez
• Abraham Toro
• Luis Urias
• Michele Vassalotti
• Devin Williams

Cardinals

• Nolan Arenado
• Genesis Cabrera
• Tommy Edman
• Giovanny Gallegos
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Ivan Herrera
• Matt Koperniak
• Noah Mendlinger
• Oscar Mercado
• Miles Mikolas
• Lars Nootbaar
• Tyler O’Neill
• JoJo Romero
• Adam Wainwright
• Guillermo Zuniga

Cubs

• Javier Assad
• Owen Caissie
• Danis Correa
• Ben DeLuzio
• Roenis Elias
• Miles Mastrobuoni
• Matt Mervis
• B.J. Murray Jr.
• Vinny Nittoli
• Fabian Pertuz
• Liam Spence
• Seiya Suzuki
• Marcus Stroman
• Pedro Strop
• Nelson Velazquez
• Jared Young

Diamondbacks

• Dominic Fletcher
• Jakob Goldfarb
• Gunnar Groen
• Merrill Kelly
• Ketel Marte
• Eric Mendez
• Dominic Miroglio
• Emmanuel Rivera
• Jacob Steinmetz
• Mitchell Stumpo
• Alek Thomas

Dodgers

• Austin Barnes
• Mookie Betts
• Freddie Freeman
• Clayton Kershaw
• Adam Kolarek
• Miguel Rojas
• Will Smith
• Trayce Thompson
• Julio Urias

Giants

• Jonathan Bermudez
• Camilo Doval
• Joey Marciano
• Joc Pederson

Guardians

• Enyel De Los Santos
• Dayan Frias
• Andres Gimenez
• Bo Naylor
• Richie Palacios
• Cal Quantrill
• Cade Smith
• Meibrys Viloria
• Josh Wolf

Marlins

• Sandy Alcantara
• Luis Arraez
• Johnny Cueto
• Jesus Luzardo
• Anthony Maldonado
• Jean Segura

Mariners

• Matt Brash
• Diego Castillo
• Matt Festa
• Harry Ford
• Teoscar Hernandez
• Milkar Perez
• Julio Rodriguez
• Eugenio Suarez
• Blake Townsend

Mets

• Pete Alonso
• Jonathan Arauz
• Edwin Diaz
• Eduardo Escobar
• Dominic Hamel
• Elieser Hernandez
• Francisco Lindor
• Jeff McNeil
• Omar Narvaez
• Cam Opp
• Adam Ottavino
• Jose Quintana
• Brooks Raley
• Claudio Scotti

Nationals

• Alberto Baldonado
• Paolo Espino
• Lucius Fox
• Alberto Guerrero
• Joey Meneses
• Erasmo Ramirez

Orioles

• Daniel Federman
• Darwinzon Hernandez
• Dean Kremer
• Cedric Mullins
• Anthony Santander
• Rodney Theophile

Padres

• Xander Bogaerts
• Nabil Crismatt
• Nelson Cruz
• Jarryd Dale
• Yu Darvish
• Jose Espada
• Ruben Galindo
• Luis Garcia
• Ha-Seong Kim
• Manny Machado
• Nick Martinez
• Evan Mendoza
• Juan Soto
• Brett Sullivan
• Julio Teheran

Phillies

• Jose Alvarado
• Erubiel Armenta
• Malik Binns
• Jaydenn Estanista
• Vito Friscia
• Brian Marconi
• J.T. Realmuto
• Kyle Schwarber
• Noah Skirrow
• Gregory Soto
• Garrett Stubbs
• Ranger Suarez
• Trea Turner
• Taijuan Walker
• Rixon Wingrove

Pirates

• David Bednar
• Tsung-Che Cheng
• Roansy Contreras
• Alessandro Ercolani
• Santiago Florez
• Jarlin Garcia
• Antwone Kelly
• Josh Palacios
• Jeffrey Passantino
• Tahnaj Thomas
• Duane Underwood Jr.
• Chavez Young
• Rob Zastryzny

Rangers

• Mitch Bratt
• Jose Leclerc
• Martin Perez

Rays

• Jason Adam
• Jonathan Aranda
• Randy Arozarena
• Christian Bethancourt
• Trevor Brigden
• Wander Franco
• Andrew Gross
• Joe LaSorsa
• Francisco Mejia
• Isaac Paredes
• Harold Ramirez
• Graham Spraker

Red Sox

• Jorge Alfaro
• Richard Bleier
• Rafael Devers
• Jarren Duran
• Ian Gibaut
• Rio Gomez
• Norwith Gudino
• Enrique Hernandez
• Nick Pivetta
• Henry Ramos
• Alex Verdugo
• Masataka Yoshida

Reds

• Donovan Benoit
• Silvino Bracho
• Luis Cessa
• Fernando Cruz
• Alexis Diaz
• Arij Fransen
• Kyle Glogoski
• Tayron Guerrero
• Evan Kravetz
• Nicolo Pinazzi
• Reiver Sanmartin
• Vin Timpanelli

Rockies

• Daniel Bard
• Jake Bird
• Yonathan Daza
• Elias Diaz
• Kyle Freeland
• Justin Lawrence
• German Marquez
• Michael Petersen
• Alan Trejo

Royals

• Max Castillo
• Robbie Glendinning
• Carlos Hernandez
• Nicky Lopez
• MJ Melendez
• Vinnie Pasquantino
• Salvador Perez
• Brady Singer
• Bobby Witt Jr.
• Angel Zerpa

Tigers

• Javier Baez
• Miguel Cabrera
• Chavez Fernander
• Andy Ibanez
• Jack O’Loughlin
• Jacob Robson
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Jonathan Schoop
• John Valente

Twins

• Jose De Leon
• Edouard Julien
• Jorge Lopez
• Pablo Lopez
• Carlos Luna
• Jose Miranda
• Jovani Moran
• Emilio Pagan
• Christian Vazquez

White Sox

• Tim Anderson
• Kendall Graveman
• Eloy Jimenez
• Lance Lynn
• Yoan Moncada
• Nicholas Padilla
• Luis Robert
• Jose Ruiz

Yankees

• Indigo Diaz
• Kyle Higashioka
• Jonathan Loaisiga
• Gleyber Torres

Rosenthal posits the Orioles as a potential partner whose current goals could align with those of the Astros, though Urquidy alone seems unlikely to be sufficient to pry Cedric Mullins loose. I’d add that it bears at least some mention that Baltimore GM Mike Elias knows the Houston system better than most rivals, stemming back to his roots as a scouting director and assistant GM with the ’Stros.

Speculatively speaking, both the Cardinals and Mariners have outfield depth and a need for rotation help. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are deeper in catchers than most clubs and have been on the lookout for potential rotation additions.

July 27: “Controllable starters” is becoming one of the most commonly repeated phrases of the 2022 trade deadline, as far more young arms than expected are being made available to teams in need of starting pitching. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds the Astros to the growing list of clubs that will at least entertain offers for young, cost-controlled members of their starting rotation, citing multiple GMs who’ve had trade conversations with the Houston front office. Righty Jose Urquidy would appear the likeliest of the bunch to change hands, per the report.

A trade dealing from the Houston rotation isn’t a given, but the ’Stros have plenty of depth to withstand such a move if it means helping them address other areas of need. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi and Urquidy give them six viable starters on the big league roster, and that’s not even including Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on a rehab assignment and trending toward a return to the Major League mound.

Houston also has top prospect Hunter Brown tearing through Triple-A lineups, and righty Brandon Bielak (who has a bit of MLB experience already) is pitching well in Triple-A Sugar Land as well. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, meanwhile, recently returned from a lengthy stay on the injured list and is building up in Sugar Land, too.

It’s unlikely that Houston would move any member of its current rotation for pure prospects — not when the team has a firm grip on the American League West and appears poised for another potentially deep playoff run. Flipping an arm they control for multiple seasons, however, could be a means of bringing in some help at first base, in the outfield and/or behind the plate. The Astros don’t know when or whether backup catcher Jason Castro and left fielder Michael Brantley will return — Castro from a knee injury and Brantley from a shoulder issue (neither of which the team has elaborated upon to the public). Manager Dusty Baker told reporters about a half-hour ago that Brantley, who’s been on the injured list since June 26, has yet to even swing a bat (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Turning to the list of plausible names for the Astros to consider, it’s fairly logical that Urquidy might top the list. Garcia was the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 and is controlled four more seasons — the most of any current member of the rotation — making him tougher to move. Each of Urquidy, Javier and Valdez are under team control through the 2025 season, but Valdez has stepped up as Houston’s No. 2 starter behind Verlander. Javier, meanwhile, is striking out nearly twice as many hitters as Urquidy and allowing home runs at a much lower rate (0.97 HR/9 to Urquidy’s 1.52).

None of that is to say that Urquidy, 27, is expendable or ineffective. To the contrary, he’s a former Top-100 prospect who’s appeared in parts of four MLB seasons now and pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in each. He’s currently sporting a solid 3.93 ERA through 100 2/3 innings (18 starts). Urquidy is not and never has been an overpowering pitcher, evidenced by this year’s 18.2% strikeout rate and a career 19.8% mark in that regard, but he has some of the best command of any starter in the Majors. Urquidy is tied for the 12th-lowest walk rate among qualified big league starters (5.2%), and he’s tenth-best among 114 starters with at least 250 innings, dating back to his 2019 MLB debut.

Urquidy will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, as will Javier. (Valdez is in the same service class but already hit arbitration as a Super Two player.) His salary should only jump into the $2-3MM range for the 2023 campaign, and he ought to remain relatively affordable through 2025, his final year of team control.

It bears emphasizing that a trade shouldn’t necessarily be seen as likely. Houston is surely taking an opportunistic approach to the depth they’ve cultivated in the rotation, but the Astros also will surely have a high asking price on Urquidy or any of their other young starters — and understandably so. For as deep as the group looks right now, pitching depth is often fleeting, and the Astros can’t know for certain what the future holds for either Verlander or Odorizzi, both of whom have player options for the 2023 season (assuming Verlander throws another 13 2/3 innings to reach 130 frames on the year, that is).

For now, Urquidy can be lumped in with a mounting number of quality arms who could potentially be acquired for a decent return and controlled by his new club for several seasons. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, while the Guardians are willing to listen on Zach Plesac. They join long-obvious trade candidates like the Reds’ Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, and the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, as names to watch in advance of next Tuesday’s 6 pm ET trade deadline.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

Fast forward just a few days, and the O’s have done everything in their power to make the front office think twice about selling. They’ve rattled off successive sweeps of the Rangers and Angels and carry an eight-game win streak. Pair that with a dreadful past week and a half for teams like the Blue Jays and Guardians — who were at or near the top of the Wild Card heap — and Baltimore has closed a stunning amount of ground. They head into play Monday two back of the final AL playoff spot, which is currently shared by the Mariners and Jays. They’ll have a chance to climb back to .500 tomorrow evening against the Cubs.

The Orioles aren’t going to continue winning indefinitely, of course. Their successive sweeps came against two below-average teams, and the Angels in particular have been in an absolute tailspin. Yet their solid play hasn’t been confined just to the past week and a half. They’re 22-14 since the start of June, outscoring opponents by 29 runs (170-141) over that stretch. That’s an arbitrary cutoff, and one can’t dismiss a 7-14 April that buried them in the standings right out of the gate. Yet this has at least been the best stretch of play for the franchise since their rebuild began in 2018, and they’ve gotten themselves into the playoff picture.

Will that be enough to deter the front office from moving some players off the roster for future talent? General manager Mike Elias struck a cautious tone speaking with reporters last week (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). “Everything that I do or that we do has tradeoffs, and all I can say is, we do everything from a very global, a very thoughtful perspective about what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles’ franchise,” Elias said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m saying we’re taking a look at everything as we make these decisions and we’ll see what happens.”

The front office certainly doesn’t seem ready to declare the rebuild over and part with high-end talent to add pieces for the 2022 stretch run. Each of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference has the club’s odds of reaching the playoffs below 10%. Even as they’ve played their way back into the picture, it’s fair to wonder whether the roster — the starting rotation especially — can hold up for another two and a half months. Few would argue the Orioles are a better team than the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays or Red Sox, yet they’ll have to outplay multiple members of that group (and hold off a handful of teams just behind them) to get to the playoffs. Even were they to add some rotation help and/or upgrade on any of Jorge Mateo, Ramón Urías or Rougned Odor around the infield, the O’s would remain postseason longshots.

If Elias and his staff aren’t likely to pivot and aggressively add before the deadline, there’s still room for them to stay the course without selling. By and large, the O’s current core can be kept around beyond this season. Baltimore has just three impending free agents on the roster. Odor and backup catcher Robinson Chirinos aren’t going to attract trade interest anyhow, meaning the only key rental for the O’s to decide upon is Trey Mancini. (His deal technically contains a $10MM mutual option for 2023, but he’s likely to decline that and seek a multi-year free agent deal).

Mancini is having a good season, carrying a .281/.353/.420 line across 331 plate appearances. He’d attract a decent amount of interest as one of the better rental bats available were the Orioles to shop him over the next few weeks. Still, as an impending free agent with defensive limitations, he won’t bring back an eye-popping return. Baltimore almost certainly wouldn’t recoup a prospect generally regarded as a top 100 caliber player in a deal. In all likelihood, they’d land a couple of players most evaluators view as middle-tier prospects from another organization.

A Mancini trade would add talent to an already-deep farm system, but would there be enough appeal to pull the trigger if the Orioles remain within three or four games of a Wild Card spot by the August 2 deadline? In addition to his on-field value, the 30-year-old first baseman is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence. He’s a fan favorite, and his overcoming a 2020 battle with colon cancer makes him one of the sport’s easiest players to support. Dealing Mancini if the Orioles were 10+ games back would’ve been unpopular with some segment of the fanbase; trading him if the team continues playing well and remains on the fringes of contention would be even more so. That’d be equally true in the clubhouse.

Baltimore’s highest-value assets are under a longer window of club control. Outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays can be kept around through 2025. They looked unlikely to change hands no matter how this season’s first half went, and that’s all the more true with the club showing signs of life. Closer Jorge López could be more likely to move given the inherent volatility with relief pitching, but he’s arbitration-eligible through 2024. That’s also true of corner outfielder Anthony Santander, who’d have more modest interest than any of Mullins, Hays or López given his defensive shortcomings and up-and-down career track record at the dish.

Things should get harder for the O’s over the next few weeks. After a two-game set with Chicago, they’ll split their next ten games between the Rays (seven) and Yankees (three). Their final series of July will be in Cincinnati, followed by one pre-deadline matchup with Texas. Drop ten or 11 of those contests, and the O’s probably end up as sellers, at least parting with Mancini. If they can go 8-8 or 9-7 over that stretch, though, Elias and his staff will have to decide on a team hovering around .500 and likely within shouting distance of a playoff spot for the first time in six years.

The front office is certainly going to remain mindful of the long-term outlook. They’re not going to suddenly jump into the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas bidding, although perhaps they could entertain the idea of adding a lower-impact starter with a lengthier window of remaining control. Yet the team has played well enough of late to give themselves a shot to avoid subtractions. Much will depend on how they play over the next three weeks, but the Orioles may not be as motivated to deal as they’d seemed just a few days ago. That’s a credit to their surprisingly strong play over the past month-plus. The team has given themselves a shot to make the front office rethink their deadline outlook, and the next 15 games should be the franchise’s most important in a half-decade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.