Meadows has been experiencing a nerve issue in his upper right arm. He tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the issue is with the musculocutaneous nerve specifically, which isn’t progressing much. Meadows still hasn’t been cleared to throw, which obviously means he can’t play, though he has been doing some other activities that don’t involve throwing.

“He’s not full go,” manager A.J. Hinch said today. “He’s just making incremental steps, whatever that means. And he’s not ready for games. He’s not close to games right now, but that can change as soon as soon as we shake this nerve up, wake it up. Things are better than they were, but still not full go.” Meadows still thinks he can be ready by Opening Day but that will obviously be dependent on things improving in the next week or two.

Pérez has some back tightness and was supposed to return to the lineup today but that has not come to pass and he might be held out of tomorrow’s game as well. With Vierling and Meadows hurt, Pérez would have been a logical candidate to jump into the outfield but his back issues make that a bit iffy. Hinch downplayed the concern, saying that the club is just being “uber cautious”, but it’s yet another question mark for the club.

Riley Greene will be in one outfield spot and could perhaps be joined by Meadows and/or Pérez. If not, Kerry Carpenter could take some time out there, letting Spencer Torkelson get some time as the designated hitter. Justyn-Henry Malloy is also on the 40-man and the Tigers also have utility players Andy Ibáñez and Zach McKinstry as potential contributors.

Some other notes from around the American League…

• Orioles utility player Jorge Mateo is recovering from last year’s elbow surgery. A month ago, general manager Mike Elias stated that Mateo was unlikely to be ready by Opening Day, but the player himself is now feeling a bit more optimistic. “I think we’re going to make it,” he said this week to Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun. That could be a key development for the O’s since shortstop Gunnar Henderson is battling an intercostal strain and it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for Opening Day himself. Even if Henderson is good to go, having Mateo on the roster next to him would give the club a bit more cover at the position.
• Royals right-hander Carlos Estévez signed a two-year, $22MM deal with the Royals about six weeks ago but still hasn’t made his spring training debut with his new club. The reliever has been battling some back tightness which has put him a bit behind schedule. Manager Matt Quatraro today provided a positive update to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, saying that Estévez threw live batting practice yesterday, which went “really well.” That puts him in line to make his Cactus League debut on Friday. With about two weeks until Opening Day, Estévez should be able to avoid the injured list if he doesn’t hit any setbacks between now and then.

Despite Erceg’s excellent finish, the Royals made a significant move at the back of their bullpen this winter. They signed All-Star righty Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $22MM free agent deal. That appeared to be a fallback after the Royals missed in a couple bigger swings at an outfield acquisition. Estévez has been a closer between the Angels and Phillies over the past two seasons. His 57 saves since the start of 2023 ranks ninth in MLB.

The Royals haven’t made an official decision about who’ll take the ninth inning this year. It doesn’t seem there’ll be any animosity on Erceg’s part if the team defers to Estévez’s experience. “I don’t really care what my role is going to be,” Erceg told Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He praised GM J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro for giving him a heads-up that the organization was closing in on a deal with Estévez before the signing was announced. Erceg said his primary focus is on helping K.C. return to the postseason whether as a closer or in a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Kansas City has thrown a decent amount of resources at fixing a bullpen that was a major weakness in the first half of last season. They acquired Hunter Harvey from the Nationals last summer, but a back injury essentially tanked his second half. Harvey has battled myriad injuries over his career, but he’s currently healthy and ticketed for a setup role. Erceg could join him as a bridge to Estévez at the back end. They’re still a little light from the left side. Angel Zerpa and Sam Long are coming off productive seasons but don’t have huge bat-missing upside. It’s nevertheless a far stronger group than they carried into 2024.

Along with Estévez, Jonathan India was Kansas City’s other significant offseason acquisition. He’ll slot atop the lineup while potentially moving around the diamond defensively. Both India and incumbent second baseman Michael Massey are likely to get reps at third base and in left field in addition to their work at the keystone. They’ve each gotten starts in left field and at second base in the first week of camp, with India picking up an appearance at third base as well. Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star writes that they’re likely to continue alternating positions every few games this spring.

In one injury development, depth outfielder Dairon Blanco has been sidelined by soreness in his right Achilles. An MRI this week revealed calcification in the tendon, Quatraro told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). That’ll shut Blanco down for a few days but shouldn’t be a major concern. The speedster stole 31 bases in 38 attempts over 88 games last season.

Estévez, 32, spent the first six seasons of his career with the Rockies. Pitching in Coors Field may have masked his talents, as he generally had good strikeout and walk rates but middling run prevention numbers. From 2019 to 2022, his final four seasons in Colorado, he tossed 214 2/3 innings with a 4.28 earned run average, 23.9% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.

Getting away from the mountains has been good for his bottom-line numbers. He signed a two-year, $13.5MM deal with the Angels going into 2023, then was traded to the Phillies at the 2024 deadline. Over those two years, he threw 117 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. He has become a bonafide closer in that time as well, racking up 31 saves in 2023 and 26 last year.

His 2024 season was his best yet, in a sense, as his 2.45 ERA was a personal low. However, there was some concern with how he finished. He struck out 25.8% of batters faced with the Angels but just 20.5% of opponents after being flipped to Philadelphia. But that was despite his velocity increasing as the season went along. He also got more ground balls after the deal, with a 25.3% rate as an Angel last year compared to a 43.5% rate with the Phils. In the end, he still managed to have a tidy 2.57 ERA with Philly, racking up six saves.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Estévez for a three-year, $27MM deal. It seems the righty has been limited to a slightly lesser guarantee over two years, though he will end up beating that projection if the option is ultimately picked up.

The Royals had a strong rotation last year but their bullpen was less impressive. Their relievers had a collective 4.13 ERA last year, which placed them 20th out of the 30 clubs in the league. They tried to address that at the deadline by adding Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey in separate trades. Erceg posted a 2.88 ERA for the club after the deal and then had a 3.00 ERA over six postseason appearances as well. The Harvey acquisition didn’t pay immediate dividends, however, as a back injury limited him to just six appearances as a Royal. He is still under club control for 2025, so the Royals will hope for better health this year.

Though Erceg’s performance made the group look stronger, continuing to add this winter makes sense. That’s especially true with Kris Bubic likely moving to the rotation this year. Time will tell whether they have a preferred closer. As mentioned, Estévez has been closing for the past two years. Erceg recorded 11 saves for the Royals after being acquired, plus three more in the playoffs. Regardless of the roles, Estévez strengthens the relief group overall.

The Royals opened last year with a payroll of $115MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are projected by RosterResource to be up to $123MM next year, before accounting for Estévez. They have reportedly been looking for a middle-of-the-order bat. Whether they can find one will likely depend on how much farther they are willing to push the spending.

Estévez received plenty of interest from other clubs this offseason, such as the Reds, Tigers, Cubs, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees. Some of those clubs have since made other moves to address their respective bullpens. For clubs still looking to add relievers, the options have been flying off the board lately. Since the start of January, Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, Jeff Hoffman, Caleb Ferguson, Jorge López, A.J. Minter, José Leclerc, Tanner Scott, Paul Sewald, Kirby Yates, Ryne Stanek and Tommy Kahnle have agree to deals of $3MM or more. Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rogers were also traded this week.

Free agency still features players such as David Robertson, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Chafin and others, while guys like Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley or Camilo Doval might be available on the trading block.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Royals and Estévez had a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first with the two-year guarantee and the third-year club option. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the $22MM guarantee and the $13MM option value.

Spending on relief pitching has picked up this month. Estévez’s own market has accelerated. Petzold writes that the Tigers are among six teams still in the mix for the hard-throwing righty. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the Reds remain in contact with Estévez’s camp. He was also linked to the Cubs — who are themselves evaluating a number of late-game options — last week. The Diamondbacks and Braves are among other teams known to be seeking relief help, though neither has been linked to Estévez specifically.

The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Kyle Finnegan are other free agent relievers with varying degrees of closing experience. (Kirby Yates is also technically unsigned but seems to be headed to the Dodgers.) Jansen and Robertson could command eight-figure guarantees. Finnegan is likely to sign for somewhere below the $8.6MM which he was projected to make in arbitration before he was non-tendered by the Nationals. He should command more than $5MM, though. Kimbrel would be a rebound flier after posting a 5.33 ERA for the Orioles last year.

Petzold writes that the Tigers’ action in the relief market has been held up by Alex Bregman’s extended free agency. Detroit has been one of the top four suitors for the star third baseman. Petzold reported earlier this week that talks were at a “standstill,” though, and the Astros have seemingly made a renewed push to bring him back. That doesn’t mean a move to Detroit is off the table, but it leaves the Tigers in something of a holding pattern.

According to Petzold, the Tigers are unlikely to land Bregman and a top reliever. He suggests they’d be more motivated to spend on a closer if Bregman signs elsewhere, which would lead them to look at a much lower tier of free agent hitter. A few teams have moved to prioritizing the bullpen with the hitting market have slowed down. The Tigers may eventually need to do the same or risk their top relief targets signing while they await Bregman’s decision.

More broadly, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Estévez’s market has picked up this week. While there’s nothing to suggest a deal is imminent, a few teams that have been frustrated with the asking prices on free agent hitters have turned their attention to the bullpen. The relief group lagged the hitting and starting pitching markets for most of the offseason, but that has changed the past two weeks. Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, José Leclerc, Tanner Scott and Paul Sewald have all agreed to terms this month. Kirby Yates is reportedly closing in on a deal with the Dodgers, as well.

Estévez is probably the top unsigned reliever. The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Cincinnati had a decent relief group in 2024. They ranked 18th in earned run average despite the difficulty of pitching at Great American Ball Park. Reds relievers ranked ninth with a 24.3% strikeout rate. They subtracted one of their top strikeout arms when they dealt Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for backup catcher Jose Trevino. A full season from breakout candidate Tony Santillan could be a major boost in front of closer Alexis Díaz. Veterans Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter are back, as is lefty Sam Moll.

The biggest question is whether the Reds have the payroll space to meet Estévez’s asking price. That seemed unlikely a few weeks ago, as general manager Nick Krall said the team wasn’t working with a ton of financial margin. However, the Reds have subsequently finalized a new television contract to stay on the FanDuel Sports Networks for the 2025 season. Krall said that the TV deal allows the front office to “work a little bit more (than before) in both the free agency and the trade market.” RosterResource calculates the Reds’ player payroll around $106MM, approximately $6MM above where they ended last season.

5:43PM: Carlos Estevez ranked 22nd on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, making him the top reliever left available on the market now that Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, and Clay Holmes (who signed with the Mets as starter) have found new teams.  As one might expect, Estevez’s “market is intensifying,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports, with the Blue Jays and Cubs among the teams in on the 32-year-old righty.

Toronto’s interest in Estevez was first reported last month, and the Reds, Yankees, and Red Sox have also been linked to Estevez at various points this winter.  The Cubs are a new team in the hunt, adding to the perception that Chicago is willing to be much more aggressive than usual in pursuing relief pitching.

After the Dodgers signed Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal earlier today, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (multiple links) reported that the Cubs were second in the bidding, with an offer thought to be “in the ballpark” of what Scott received from Los Angeles.  This tracks with the Friday report from Morosi suggesting that the Cubs were one of Scott’s “top remaining suitors,” which was the first time the Cubs had been linked to the southpaw all winter.

Coming even close to a four-year, $72MM offer for a reliever represents a huge sea change in how Chicago usually approaches its bullpen.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has never signed a reliever to a multi-year contract during his four-plus years in charge of the Cubs’ front office, and Hector Neris’ one-year, $9MM pact from a year ago represents the most money Hoyer has given to a relief pitcher.

Improving the relief corps was a stated goal for Hoyer heading into the offseason, and just earlier this week, the PBO stated that the team was still looking to add more to its bullpen.  Chicago’s biggest bullpen acquisitions of the winter have thus far fit Hoyer’s preferred lower-cost models — a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Caleb Thielbar, and trading for Eli Morgan, who will make $950K in 2025 and is arbitration-controlled through 20227.

Porter Hodge looked tremendous in his rookie season, to the point that he took over as the Cubs’ closer down the stretch when the team’s bullpen ranks were reduced by injury.  Hodge will certainly be in the high-leverage mix next year, though having him as a full-time closer could be a lot to ask of a second-year pitcher with just 43 big league innings on his resume.  Adding a veteran reliever with closing experience like Estevez makes a lot of sense for Chicago, even if Estevez might ultimately end up as a setup man if Hodge can handle being the primary ninth-inning option.

MLBTR projected Estevez for a three-year, $27MM contract, though it is unclear what exactly Estevez and his reps at Premier Talent are looking to land in second foray into the open market.  It is safe to say Estevez’s price tag will be much less than Scott’s contract, so if the Cubs were willing to venture into that spending area, Estevez should be well within their price range.  Signing Estevez to something in the range of MLBTR’s projection would also match the $9MM average annual value of the Neris contract, which could be more palatable for Hoyer.

It was two offseasons ago that Estevez signed a two-year, $13.5MM guarantee from the Angels, but it is safe to say his asking price has risen considerably after he established himself as a viable closing candidate.  Estevez has a 3.22 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies over the last two seasons, and the 2024 campaign saw him reduce both his walk rate and (more troublingly) his strikeout rate.  Philadelphia is seemingly taking a less-costly approach to its own bullpen, so there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a reunion between Estevez and the Phillies, plus Hoffman already signed with the Blue Jays.

“Just getting a little bit more money is great,” Krall stated (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “We can work a little bit more in both the free agency and the trade market.”

Reds fans will surely welcome the news of additional resources at the front office’s disposal. Krall didn’t make any definitive statements about what’s to come on the horizon, but it’s a change in tone from last week, when after the Gavin Lux trade he noted that the Reds did “not [have] a ton” of flexibility with regard to the payroll.

At the moment, RosterResource projects the Reds for a $106MM payroll — about a $6MM increase over where they finished the 2024 season. That’s generally been considered the top end of ownership’s range; Krall implied following the Lux acquisition that the inclusion of the team’s competitive balance draft pick in the swap was a creative means of fitting Lux’s modest $3.325MM salary onto the books, as it reduced the Reds’ draft budget. That doesn’t speak to a team with future acquisitions still in the pipeline.

Only time will tell the extent of the impact on Cincinnati’s spending ability. COO Doug Healy somewhat vaguely said the deal “enhances our economics slightly.” Krall’s subsequent comments more clearly suggest that the Reds could squeeze another move out of the unexpected uptick in revenue.

It’d be a major surprise if the Reds suddenly felt emboldened to spend on Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso, even as both reportedly warm to the possibility of shorter-term deals in free agency. They’ve recently been linked to reliever Carlos Estevez and were reported to have had interest in Gleyber Torres before he signed with the Tigers, as well. Wittenmyer writes that despite prior interest in Estevez, the two parties hadn’t talked in “weeks” prior to the new television agreement, as the right-hander was simply out of their price range.

Even if it’s not Estevez specifically, that interest suggests a desire to strengthen the relief corps. With regard to how the market has played out this winter, that’s arguably the “best” need to still have on any team’s to-do list. The relief market has moved slowly compared to other corners of free agency. It’s begun to pick up steam recently, but Estevez is just one of several quality bullpen arms still looking for a new home next year. David Robertson, Kenley Jansen and Kirby Yates are among the highest-profile names available, but the open market also includes names like Kyle Finnegan, Paul Sewald, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter and Tommy Kahnle, among others.

Estévez is one of the better unsigned relievers. The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. Estévez turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

The relief market has yet to get going in earnest. Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman are at the top of the class. Estévez is arguably the #3 free agent reliever, while Kirby Yates and David Robertson will be available on short-term deals at a lofty salary.

Cincinnati had a decent relief group in 2024. They ranked 18th in earned run average despite the difficulty of pitching at Great American Ball Park. Reds relievers ranked ninth with a 24.3% strikeout rate. They subtracted one of their top setup arms when they dealt Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for backup catcher Jose Trevino.

A full season from breakout candidate Tony Santillan could be a major boost in front of closer Alexis Díaz. Veterans Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter are back, as is lefty Sam Moll. The Reds have a few openings in the middle relief group, though. Adding another reliever is sensible, though it’s not clear if there’s room in the budget to make a legitimate push for Estévez. RosterResource calculates Cincinnati’s payroll around $106MM, about $6MM above where they finished last season. After acquiring Gavin Lux from the Dodgers this week, general manager Nick Krall said the front office has “a little bit (of flexibility), not a ton” from a payroll perspective (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Minter has been linked to the Blue Jays, Rangers and Cubs in recent weeks. Texas has already made a handful of bullpen signings, including last night’s one-year deal with former Boston righty Chris Martin. The Jays and Cubs should still be involved in the relief market. During the season, Minter had expressed some interest in returning to the Braves, though it’s not clear how seriously Atlanta has pushed for a reunion.

The 31-year-old has been one of the game’s more reliable lefty setup arms during his career. Between 2020-23, he combined for a 2.89 earned run average while striking out more than 30% of opposing hitters in more than 200 innings. Minter’s platform year was a little more questionable. He still managed good numbers, turning in a 2.62 ERA with a solid 26.1% strikeout rate. Left hip issues limited him to 39 appearances, though. He underwent surgery that ended his season in the middle of August.

Minter could be ready early in the year, so the injury should not be too detrimental to his market. That said, it may limit him to two years when he seemed on track for a three-year pact earlier in 2024. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal.

The relief market has moved slowly. Boston’s $10.75MM deal with Aroldis Chapman is one of four eight-figure reliever contracts thus far. The Sox also brought in Justin Wilson on a one-year deal at a low cost ($2.25MM). Minter would complete a trifecta of new southpaws in Alex Cora’s late-inning mix.

Kahnle is a righty who generally fares better against left-handed hitters. That’s a reflection of how often he uses his changeup. Kahnle turned to the “offspeed” pitch more than 70% of the time last season. It’s tough to argue with the results, as he turned in a 2.11 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opponents across 42 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Kittredge, a righty who leans on his slider roughly half the time, is coming off a strong season for the Cardinals. The 34-year-old worked 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball with a league average 23.3% strikeout rate.

While the Juan Soto pursuit has dominated the Jays-related headlines this winter, the club has been actively linked to many players, as has been the standard operating procedure for Ross Atkins during his time as Toronto’s GM.  This includes multiple relief arms, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi report that the Jays “have shown some level of interest” in Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, and Paul Sewald.  ESPN’s Jorge Castillo adds that Toronto is also one of the many teams interested in Jonathan Loaisiga.

Davidi and BNS note that the Guardians have shown some interest in some of Toronto’s minor league prospects, leading to some speculation that the Jays could look to bring in local product Josh Naylor, who is known to be available in trade talks.  Speculatively, the Toronto/Cleveland connection might also be related to the Blue Jays’ bullpen search, as the Guards are very deep in relief pitching.

The sheer volume of names under consideration isn’t really all that unusual, considering how most teams take a broad view of the ever-shifting bullpen market.  As Davidi and Nicholson-Smith note, the Jays have rarely invested much in relief pitching during Atkins’ tenure, and most of the relievers listed would likely be available on shorter-term deals.  Turning to MLBTR’s ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, Estevez (22nd, projected for three-year, $27MM contract), Minter (34th, two years/$16MM), and Kittredge (40th, two years/$14MM) were the only ones to make the list.

Going beyond their usual comfort zone to sign Estevez might reflect the Blue Jays’ greater need for bullpen help, as non-tendering Romano left a big vacancy in the closer’s role.  Chad Green looks like the favorite for saves at the moment, but signing Estevez would push Green back to a setup job and create a clearer bullpen hierarchy.

Jansen, of course, is far and away the most established closer of the group, with 447 saves over his standout 15-year career.  Though Jansen is entering his age-37 season, he is coming off yet another strong performance in posting a 3.29 ERA and 27 saves over 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2024.

Sewald had seemingly established himself as a solid closer with the Mariners and then the Diamondbacks, and even got off to a hot start in 2024 before running into injuries and a very rough stretch that cost him his ninth-inning role in Arizona.  Better health and a change of scenery could very well spark a return to form for Sewald, making him perhaps a bit of an underrated candidate for teams in need of saves.

Estevez collected his share of saves as a high-leverage member of the Rockies’ bullpen from 2016-22, but he didn’t become a full-time closer until 2023, after he’d signed a two-year, $13.5MM contract with the Angels in his previous trip to the open market.  Estevez racked up 31 saves in his first season in Los Angeles while posting a 3.90 ERA over 62 1/3 innings, and followed that up with a 2.38 ERA over 34 frames this year before the Angels sent him to Philadelphia at the trade deadline.  The bottom-line result of a 2.57 ERA over 21 innings with the Phils was still impressive, though Estevez had diminished strikeout and walk rates following the trade.

All in all, the right-hander delivered a 2.45 ERA across 55 innings, with an excellent 5.7% walk rate.  The Statcast metrics revealed a few more red flags than red data points, as Estevez’s strikeout rate was barely above league average, and his barrel and hard-hit ball rates were both quite poor.  A .229 BABIP might be the key stat of Estevez’s season, and while his 3.57 SIERA was still respectable, the number is over a run higher than his actual ERA.

Then again, perhaps Estevez was due a bit of balance considering that he entered the season with a career .320 BABIP.  The righty’s career strikeout numbers have tended to fluctuate since Estevez isn’t good at getting batters to chase outside the zone, yet he still possesses plenty of velocity in his 96.8mph fastball.  Estevez has relied heavily on that pitch over his career, though his slider and changeup were also plus pitches in 2024.

MLBTR ranked Estevez 22nd on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting a three-year, $27MM deal for the reliever as he enters his age-32 season.  Naturally Estevez figures to get plenty of attention from teams that need a proper closer, yet the Yankees technically have that position addressed after Luke Weaver’s late-season emergence.  It makes sense that New York would seek out a more proven closer in case Weaver comes back to earth, or perhaps if the Yankees want to use Weaver in more of a situation role than strictly as a ninth-inning specialist.

Estevez, 31, first joined the Angels on a two-year deal prior to the 2023 season on the heels of a breakout season with the Rockies where he posted a 3.47 ERA despite playing half his games at Coors Field. It’s a deal that’s gone quite well for Anaheim, as the righty was an All-Star in 2023 with a sterling 1.80 ERA in the first half last year. Estevez’s overall season numbers took a dive after he struggled badly to a 6.59 ERA with a 4.46 FIP in 27 1/3 innings of work after the All-Star break last year, but he’s rebounded in a big way in 2023 to become one of the most attractive rental relief arms on the market.

This year, Estevez has collected 20 saves as the Angels’ closer in 34 innings of work while posting a strong 2.38 ERA in that time. While his 25.8% strikeout rate actually comes in a tad below his 27.8% figure from last year, he’s taken a major step forward in terms of command this year. After walking 11% of batters faced last season and entering the 2024 campaign having offered free passes to 9.3% of opponents in his career, Estevez has cut his walk rate to a clip of just 4% this year.

In conjunction with just three home runs allowed this season, it’s left the right-hander with a strong 2.85 FIP, a 2.67 xERA, and a 3.35 SIERA that all indicate he’s been one of the league’s best late-inning relief arms.

In trading for Estevez, the Phillies have not only replaced right-hander Seranthony Dominguez in their bullpen after shipping him to Baltimore yesterday in order to acquire outfielder Austin Hays, but they’ve found a bonafide closer to pitch the ninth inning after the struggles of southpaw Jose Alvarado left him replaced by right-hander Jeff Hoffman in recent weeks. The addition of Estevez should allow Alvarado, Hoffman, and lefty Matt Strahm to pitch in leverage spots earlier in games, deepening a bullpen that has posted a middling 3.96 ERA (16th in the majors) this year as the club gears up for a playoff run.

In return for Estevez’s services, the Phillies are sending a pair of pitching prospects to the Angels. Both rank within the top ten of the Philly system as of Baseball America’s most recent update, with Klassen ranked fifth in the system while Aldeghri currently ranks seventh. Klassen in particular was highlighted by BA’s Josh Norris earlier this month as a notable riser in the club’s system following his promotion to High-A earlier this year. The club’s sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft, the 22-year-old dominated Single-A pitching to the tune of a 0.71 ERA in nine starts prior to his promotion. While he’s struggled a bit more following his move to the next level with a 4.22 ERA in five starts, he’s still striking out an impressive 35.2% of batters faced even in High-A. A 10% walk rate raises some mild control concerns, but it’s easy to imagine the righty moving quickly through an Angels organization that tends to be aggressive in promoting youngsters.

As for Aldegheri, the lefty signed out of Italy with the Phillies back in 2019 but has raised his stock somewhat this year in 78 innings split between the High-A and Double-A levels. The 22-year-old sports a 3.23 ERA on the year with an excellent 34% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate across fifteen starts. While BA suggests that the lefty lacks an obvious plus pitch, solid command and a five-pitch mix could nonetheless make him a viable starter in the big leagues. The pitching-heavy return for Estevez should be helpful for an Angels club that lacks much certainty in the rotation going forward, especially if veteran southpaw Tyler Anderson is also dealt before the deadline.

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Estévez has had an excellent season. He’s running a 2.38 ERA over 34 innings. Estévez has fanned nearly 26% of batters faced while keeping his walk rate to a pristine 4% clip. He has locked down 20 of 23 save opportunities and is running a remarkable streak. Opponents haven’t plated a run since May 21. Estévez has rattled off 18 straight scoreless outings, allowing a grand total of five baserunners (three singles and two walks) in that time.

The Halos signed the former Rockies setup man to a two-year, $13.5MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. While he scuffled down the stretch last season and had a few shaky appearances this April, that has generally been an excellent investment. Estévez has held the ninth inning throughout his time in Los Angeles and carries a 3.36 ERA across 96 1/3 frames with the Halos. His 27.2% strikeout rate over that stretch is more very good than elite, but he’s a power arm who has shown dramatically improved control this season.

Estévez is headed back to the open market at season’s end. While the Angels have played their way back to within eight games in the AL West, they’re 12 games under .500 and not a realistic playoff contender. There’s little reason to hang onto their impending free agents of value, a group headlined by their closer.

Philadelphia is likely to add some kind of late-inning help. They’ve also been tied to Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott and Washington’s Kyle Finnegan in recent weeks. José Alvarado, Orion Kerkering and Gregory Soto have each been inconsistent, leaving the Phils with some questions in the late innings aside from All-Star righty Jeff Hoffman.

It’s always possible, especially this time of year, that there’s some level of posturing in that stance. The Halos are 15 games under .500, 10.5 games out of the division lead and 12 games out of a Wild Card spot as of Monday morning. Their -78 run differential is the fifth-worst in MLB. Mike Trout has been on the injured list since late April. Patrick Sandoval and Robert Stephenson have both been lost to UCL surgeries. To say things have not gone well in 2024 would be putting things mildly.

That said, Angels owner Arte Moreno has long appeared averse to embarking on any kind of rebuilding effort. The Angels have regularly been active in free agency and on the trade market over the past decade, even as their playoff drought has grown to the largest in the sport. (They last qualified for postseason play in 2014.) That trend has spanned multiple general managers — Jerry Dipoto, Billy Eppler, Perry Minasian — and thus seems largely attributable to ownership. Even as they were faced with losing Shohei Ohtani in free agency this offseason, Minasian decisively stated that the Angels would not rebuild.

When considering that context, it’s easier to see a scenario in which the Angels would rebuff interest in names like Ward — even if there’s a strong logical case that they should be capitalizing on trade value nearly anywhere it exists on the roster. As it stands, Nightengale writes that the Angels have been “bombarded” with interest in closer Carlos Estevez and are also likely to trade setup man Luis Garcia. Other rental players of note on the Halos include Matt Moore, Brandon Drury, Kevin Pillar, Hunter Strickland and Miguel Sano.

The 31-year-old Estevez is in the second season of a two-year, $13.5MM contract signed in the 2022-23 offseason. The longtime Rockies hurler has taken his game to a new level in Anaheim — particularly in 2024. He boasts a tidy 2.89 ERA with a strong 26.9% strikeout rate and a career-best 3.8% walk rate. Estevez averages just shy of 97 mph on his heater, has picked up 16 saves this year (and 31 last year), and was named the AL Reliever of the Month in June after tossing 10 shutout innings and recording a 32.3% strikeout rate without issuing a walk.

Garcia, 37, is on a one-year, $4.25MM contract. He’s pitched 36 innings and yielded a 4.25 ERA while recording nine holds. The veteran righty has fanned a sharp 23.7% of his opponents against a similarly strong 7.9% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a hearty 49.5% clip. His sinker is down from the career-best 98.7 mph average he showed with the Padres in 2022 but still has plenty of life, sitting at 96.4 mph, per Statcast.

Strickland, 35, has had an up-and-down career with inconsistent year-to-year results but is in the midst of a strong season. He’s pitched 40 innings out of the bullpen and logged a 3.60 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 35.3% ground-ball rate and 0.90 HR/9. Over his past 9 2/3 innings, he’s gone unscored upon and allowed only one hit and three walks while punching out 10 batters.

The 35-year-old Pillar was released by the White Sox in April and has been a godsend in Anaheim. Since heading to Orange County, the journeyman outfielder has turned in a huge .305/.360/.516 slash with six home runs and five steals in just 139 plate appearances. Pillar recently acknowledged that this will likely be his final season, so it stands to reason that he’d welcome the opportunity to join one more playoff race and one more chance to chase down a World Series ring.

None of the other rental options on the Angels’ roster are performing particularly well. Moore, Adam Cimber and Jose Cisnero all signed one-year deals in the offseason. Moore has seen his strikeout rate plummet as he’s struggled to keep his ERA under 5.00. Both Cimber and Cisnero have ERAs north of 7.00 and are presently on the injured list. Drury, hitting .172/.24/.227 in the second season of a two-year $17MM deal, is more a release candidate than a trade candidate. Sano, back in the majors after not playing in 2023, is hitting .205/.295/.313 with a 37.9% strikeout rate in 95 plate appearances.

Robert Murray of FanSided wrote on Wednesday that the Angels are already gauging interest from contenders on their closer. Estévez is fresh off being named the American League’s reliever of the month in June. He tossed 10 scoreless innings while striking out 10 hitters. Estévez retired 26 consecutive batters at one point and allowed only two baserunners (both on singles) in 31 plate appearances.

That might have been the best month of the hard-throwing righty’s career. The 31-year-old isn’t a one-month wonder though. He has been a generally effective late-game arm throughout his time in Los Angeles. The Halos signed him to a two-year, $13.5MM free agent pact during the 2022-23 offseason. Estévez had spent the entirety of his career with the Rockies before hitting the market. He’d been inconsistent during his stint with the Rox, but he flashed closing stuff at his best.

The Halos plugged him into the ninth inning. Estévez saved 31 games in 35 attempts a season ago, working to a 3.90 ERA over 62 1/3 innings. He earned an All-Star nod with a 1.80 ERA during the first half. Estévez struggled down the stretch, posting a 6.59 mark through his final 27 1/3 frames.

Aside from a handful of rocky outings between the middle of April and early portion of May, Estévez has put that slow finish behind him. He carries an even 3.00 earned run average in 27 frames. He’s punching out 27% of opposing hitters while walking just 3% of batters faced, by far the lowest rate of his career. He is 16-19 in save opportunities.

Estévez probably won’t maintain this level of pristine command. He’d walked nearly 10% of opponents during his final season in Colorado and posted an 11% walk rate last year. Even if he hands out a few more free passes, he should remain a quality high-leverage arm. Estévez has fanned nearly 28% of batters faced as an Angel. He has gotten swinging strikes on more than 12% of his offerings in each of the past two seasons. He’s not going to rack up strikeouts at a Mason Miller or Josh Hader level, but Estévez has better than average bat-missing ability. He pairs a 96-97 MPH fastball with a slider that checks in around 89 MPH.

Signing Estévez has been one of the better moves of Perry Minasian’s GM tenure. It hasn’t stopped the Angels from falling towards the bottom of the American League, though. A terrible August killed their chances of competing for a playoff spot in 2023. After losing Shohei Ohtani in free agency and dealing with another extended Mike Trout absence, the Halos will be clear sellers at the deadline this time around. Tonight’s shutout loss to the A’s dropped them 13 games below .500.

Estévez is making $6.75MM before returning to free agency next winter. He’s owed just under $3MM for the rest of the season. That’d drop to roughly $2.18MM in remaining commitments by the deadline. Most teams should be able to accommodate that salary for arguably the best rental reliever available. Every contender could be a realistic suitor — even teams with an established closer could push Estévez into the seventh or eighth inning — but teams like the Yankees, Royals, Padres, Mets and Cardinals could be especially motivated to add late-inning help.