• The Marlins agreed to a $3.4MM deal with first-round pick PJ Morlando, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s well shy of the approximate $4.7MM slot value of the 16th overall selection. While it’s somewhat rare to see a high school player sign for well below slot, the deal allowed Morlando to push into the middle of the first round. FanGraphs, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each ranked the South Carolina commit between 33rd and 52nd in their pre-draft rankings. Evaluators credit the left-handed hitter with advanced contact skills and huge raw power that he shows mostly in batting practice. BA writes that Morlando entered the year as a potential top 10 pick but had a disappointing spring. Law suggests he’s likely to require a mechanical change in pro ball to better integrate his lower body into his swing. Morlando projects to left field or first base, putting a lot of pressure on him to maximize his offensive potential. The $3.4MM bonus falls between the slot values of the 25th and 26th picks, valuing Morlando as a late first-round talent.
• The Braves are in agreement with 24th overall pick Cam Caminiti on a $3.5563MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). It’s full slot value for the Arizona prep left-hander. An LSU commit, Caminiti was the first high school pitcher off the board. Evaluators credit him with mid-90s fastball velocity and an advanced changeup. Law writes that the 6’2″ southpaw developed his curveball into an average or better offering this spring. There’s plenty of risk with the high school pitching demographic, but Caminiti has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
• Supplemental first-round pick Griff O’Ferrall is in agreement with the Orioles on a $2.7MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s just shy of the $2.84MM slot value for the 32nd pick. A shortstop from the University of Virginia, O’Ferrall was a divisive pre-draft prospect. McDaniel and Law each had the right-handed hitter among the 35 best players in the class. He ranked 49th at FanGraphs and 115th on Baseball America’s draft board. O’Ferrall makes a ton of contact, striking out just 24 times in 323 plate appearances (a 7.4% rate) in his draft year. He hit .324/.367/.454 with five homers over 63 contests as a junior. The more optimistic reports suggest O’Ferrall could be a regular at shortstop based on his bat-to-ball skills and an above-average glove. BA suggests his arm strength might push him to second base, where his minimal power upside could be more of a concern.

The first-round picks…

1. Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
2. Cincinnati Reds: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
3. Colorado Rockies: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia
4. Oakland Athletics: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
5. Chicago White Sox: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
6. Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
7. St. Louis Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia
8. Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep High School (MS)
10. Washington Nationals: Seaver King, SS/3B/OF, Wake Forest
11. Detroit Tigers: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)
12. Boston Red Sox: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
13. San Francisco Giants: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
14. Chicago Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
15. Seattle Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, LHP/RHP, Mississippi State
16. Miami Marlins: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville High School (SC)
17. Milwaukee Brewers: Braylon Payne, OF, Elkins High School (TX)
18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen, OF/MI, Westlake High School (TX)
19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
20. Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
21. Minnesota Twins: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
22. Baltimore Orioles: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee High School (FL)
24. Atlanta Braves: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguero High School (AZ)
25. San Diego Padres: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City High School (OK)
26. New York Yankees: Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Dante Nori, OF, Northville High School (MI)
28. Houston Astros: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View High School (AR)
30. Texas Rangers: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

All 30 teams will have picks in the first round this year, though the Mets, Padres, and Yankees all had their first-round selections dropped back by 10 slots.  These three teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier ($273MM) in 2023, and thus their punishment included a 10-space drop in their opening draft choice.

The 2024 draft will take place over three days, consisting of 20 rounds of selections.  Rounds 3-10 will take place on Monday, rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, and the draft’s first 74 picks will come off the board tonight.  Those 74 picks consist of the first two proper rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and two Prospect Promotion Incentive picks.

The two PPI selections will go to the Diamondbacks at 31st overall and the Orioles at 32nd overall, awarded since Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson fit all of the criteria for their teams to receive the bonus picks.  Carroll and Henderson won Rookie of the Year honors, both young stars were included on their respective teams’ Opening Day rosters, and were rated as top-100 prospects in at least two of three sets of preseason prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and ESPN.