Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Kilian, 28 in June, was first placed on Chicago’s 40-man roster back in 2022 and has been optioned to the minor leagues in each of the 2022-24 campaigns with at least 20 days in the minors each season. Under normal circumstances, that would leave him out of options headed into the 2025 campaign, meaning the Cubs would have to expose Kilian to waivers before attempting to return him to the minor leagues.

Occasionally, however, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. That applies to Kilian, who missed the majority of the 2024 season due to a teres major strain suffered during Spring Training and did not make his season debut until July 2. Kilian also did not pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season and pitched for just one month in 2019 after being drafted by the Giants in June of that year. That leaves Kilian with just three full professional seasons under his belt: 2021, 2022, and 2023.

The news affords the Cubs additional flexibility as they sort through their many bullpen options for the 2025 season. Presently, the club has Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Julian Merryweather, Caleb Thielbar, Eli Morgan, Luke Little, Nate Pearson, Keegan Thompson, Rob Zastryzny, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, and Gavin Hollowell all on the 40-man roster and in the mix for a role in the Opening Day bullpen before even considering starting pitchers like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Cody Poteet and now Kilian that currently project as part of the Triple-A rotation. A handful of non-roster veterans like Phil Bickford and Brooks Kriske could also be in the mix for a job.

Of that massive group of potential bullpen arms, Thielbar, Miller, Merryweather, Zastryzny, Thompson, and Festa all do not have options remaining. With just eight spots in the Opening Day bullpen, Kilian also being out of options would’ve left just one open space to fill before the club would’ve had to start exposing players from the aforementioned to waivers in order to mix in the club’s many optionable relief arms, including key players like Hodge, Pearson, and Morgan. Injuries and Spring Training roster cuts will surely thin that group out in the months leading up to Opening Day, but the news regarding Kilian’s fourth option year offers the Cubs a bit more breathing room as they look to piece together their pitching corps for 2025.

An inability to option Kilian also would have likely ended whatever hopes the right-hander may have of continuing to be a potential option for the starting rotation; while Kilian has a deep pitch mix and the stamina to start, his control has been sorely lacking. The right-hander has accrued 27 1/3 innings of work in the majors to this point in his career and in that time has struggled to a 9.22 ERA and 5.32 FIP while walking (14.6%) nearly as many batters as he’s struck out (15.3%). With that said, he was effective at the Triple-A level when healthy enough to take the mound last year, with a 3.22 ERA and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 7.5% walk rate.

Whether he ultimately finds a home in the rotation or the bullpen, a fourth option year has left the door open to Kilian establishing himself more firmly as a viable big league option with additional time to develop in the minors, and allows the Cubs one final year to evaluate the righty before he either has to be kept on the active roster permanently or exposed to waivers during the 2026 campaign.

Kilian, 27, was diagnosed with a teres major strain during Spring Training and was slated to miss several months. He landed on the 60-day injured list on Opening Day and has been there until today. He began a rehab assignment at the start of July and has made eight minor league appearances in recent weeks. Rehab assignments for pitchers come with a 30-day maximum, so Kilian was reaching the end of that window.

He’ll now provide the Chicago pitching staff with some depth. He has a 12.42 earned run average in his big league career, but in a small sample of 16 2/3 innings. He pitched 227 Triple-A innings over the previous two seasons with a 4.40 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate.

He came into 2024 with 20 days of majors league service time and added roughly four months’ worth here on the IL, but is still shy of the 172 needed to get to a full year. He also came into 2024 with just one option season remaining and is now likely to be out of options next year. A player needs to spend at least 20 days on optional assignment in a season for that to count as one of his option years, so Kilian will use his final one here in 2024 if he’s not recalled again in the next 20 days.

Nido landed on the 10-day IL last week due to a right knee sprain. It appears it was determined that he needed to go under the knife to get the issue taken care of. The Cubs selected Christian Bethancourt to take Nido’s roster spot and share the catching duties with Miguel Amaya. Given Nido’s timeline, he could be back in the mix in September.

Those are the only three backstops on the 40-man roster at the moment, so the Cubs will have only non-roster depth if someone else gets hurt while Nido is out. Moisés Ballesteros might be next in line, despite his lack of major league experience, as he’s considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league and is currently in Triple-A.

Kilian, 27 in June, came over to the Cubs in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Kris Bryant to the Giants. He was added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster in June of 2022 but has spent most of his time since then on optional assignment. He’s only tossed 16 2/3 major league innings so far, having allowed 23 earned runs in that time.

His results in the minors have naturally been better. He has thrown 231 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years, with an earned run average of 4.36. He struck out 22.1% of batters faced in that time, gave out walks at a 9.5% clip and got grounders on roughly half the balls in play he allowed.

The righty would have been in competition for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Four starting jobs are accounted for between Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon, with the final spot up for grabs between guys like Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Porter Hodge.

Kilian would have been in that battle and, even if he didn’t win the gig, he would have been in Triple-A looking to earn the first call-up when a need arose. But he was experiencing some discomfort and underwent an MRI yesterday, which revealed the bad news. He’ll now be out of action for the next few months and won’t be available to the club until the second half of the season, most likely.

As for Madrigal, he also came into camp fighting for a job. The Cubs have a fairly open competition for time at third base, with Madrigal in the mix alongside Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel, as well as a few others. Madrigal’s current injury doesn’t appear to be severe, but if it lingers into the start of the season, it could open up more playing time for Wisdom or Morel until Madrigal is back to full strength.

Madrigal is a hit-over-power guy who has just four home runs in his 846 major league plate appearances. His 4.6% walk rate is also very low but his tiny 8.9% strikeout rate demonstrates he is one of the toughest hitters in the league to punch out. His career batting line of .280/.328/.354 translates to a wRC+ of 90, indicating he’s been about 10% below league average overall. Last year was his first season playing third base at the big league level, moving from his customary second base spot, but he seems to have made the move swimmingly. He was worth eight Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 560 1/3 innings at the hot corner.

Wisdom and Morel have the opposite profile, as both of them are high-power, high-strikeout bats with questionable defense. The club doesn’t have a true designated hitter, so perhaps they could have used Madrigal at third while deploying one of Morel or Wisdom as the DH, but that won’t be an option if Madrigal misses some time.

The 2021 season marked a turning point in Cubs franchise history. Half a decade had elapsed since the team’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series run. The “dynasty” chatter that followed that seven-game victory over Cleveland never really manifested into reality. Chicago was a perennial contender, but that vaunted Cubs core never reached the World Series again and only won one game beyond the National League Division Series before the group was suddenly nearing the end of its time together.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was a sensational group of talent around which to build, but Hendricks was the only one of the bunch to put pen to paper on an extension. The group continued inching closer to free agency, and as Lester and Arrieta declined in their latter years in Chicago, some of the shine wore off. The Cubs were a good team, but year after year, the season ended with now-former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein making similar comments about how the “offense broke” or something else went wrong.

Following a 2020 season that saw the Cubs swept out of a three-game Wild Card series against the Marlins in the expanded playoff format, Epstein stepped down from his role as president and turned baseball autonomy over to Jed Hoyer. It was baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche, as Hoyer faced a series of unenviable decisions, beginning with Schwarber. Fresh off a .188/.308/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances in 2020, Schwarber was non-tendered rather than offered a raise heading into his final year of arbitration. Not four weeks later, Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres in a salary-motivated deal that has to date produced just one prospect of any note (Owen Caissie).

Decision time was only just beginning for Hoyer and his staff. The Cubs would need to determine how to proceed with the trio of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, each of whom were slated to become free agents following the 2021 season. Prior extension talks had never resulted in a deal — though Baez was reportedly quite close to signing before baseball grinded to a halt with the Covid pandemic in 2020. Chicago made one final effort to extend Rizzo that spring, but he spurned their five-year, $70MM offer (and has since banked three years and $56MM in guaranteed money with the Yankees).

The Cubs could’ve traded any of the bunch that offseason, and Bryant’s name in particular echoed throughout the rumor mill as much as it ever had. Ultimately, all three stayed put, and thus the ensuing narratives that would dominate the 2021 Cubs season were set into motion. Would any of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo stay? Was the core finally breaking up? Was this the team’s last chance?

The lackluster offseason headlined by trading the prior season’s Cy Young runner-up should’ve answered that final question on its own, but the Cubs surprised plenty of onlookers by not only fielding a competitive team but vying for first place in the division for much of the first few months. As late into the season as June 24, the Cubs were eight games over .500 and in a first-place tie for the NL Central lead with the Brewers.

A subsequent 11-game losing streak — the first of two 11-game losing streaks for that year’s Cubs — removed all doubt, however. By July 8, the Cubs were below .500, and the surging Brewers had remained hot. They held a 9.5-game lead over the second-place Reds, with Chicago and St. Louis tied for third in the division. The fire sale was coming, and virtually everyone knew it.

Rizzo was the first to go. A July 29 deal sent him to the Yankees in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24-year-old righty Alexander Vizcaino. A day later, Baez was following Rizzo out of Wrigley. Traded alongside right-hander Trevor Williams, Baez went to the Mets in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. For the next 24 hours, there were serious questions about whether a trade for Bryant would ultimately come together, but in a buzzer-beating deal, Bryant was shipped to the Giants in exchange for 21-year-old outfielder Alexander Canario and 24-year-old righty Caleb Kilian.

You can perhaps call the inclusion of Baez cheating a little bit for the purposes of this series, because Williams’ inclusion meant it wasn’t *technically* a rental. The Mets acquired two months of control over Baez and a year-plus of Williams in this swap. That extra year of control over Williams surely factored into the decision to part with Crow-Armstrong to an extent, but this was a trade about acquiring Baez first and foremost. Baez caught fire down the stretch for the Mets, too, posting a huge .299/.371/.515 slash in 186 plate appearances. The Mets still missed postseason, however, and the trade surely stings when looking at what’s become of the player they surrendered.

Fast forward less than two years, and “PCA” is regarded as one of the sport’s top outfield prospects. He’s ranked within the top-30 overall prospects in the sport on the most recent lists Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the “low” ranking on Crow-Armstrong… at No. 39 in the game. Regarded as plus-plus defender in center field with plus speed, Crow-Armstrong has opened the season with a .278/.345/.513 showing in Double-A (131 wRC+). He’s knocked eight homers, seven doubles and three of triples while going 13-for-17 in steals.

Obviously, the Cubs haven’t yet gotten any big league value out of Crow-Armstrong, but it’s rare for a team to acquire a prospect in exchange for a rental and see him almost immediately ascend to the point that he’s regarded as one of the top 15 to 30 prospects in all of baseball. If the Cubs wanted to do so — they surely don’t, to be clear — they could use Crow-Armstrong as a headline piece to acquire just about any controllable veteran who hits the market this summer or next offseason. The likelier path for PCA is that he’ll be given every opportunity to become a franchise center fielder for a still-retooling Cubs club.

There’s no nitpicking with the other two swaps in this three-for-one entry. Rizzo and Bryant were shipped out as two-month mercenaries in exchange for a quartet of prospects, although Rizzo took to the Bronx quite nicely and is now locked in as a Yankee through the 2024 season. There was plenty for the Yankees to like, as Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+) down the stretch, swatting eight homers and seven postseason doubles before tacking on another dinger in that year’s Wild Card loss to the Red Sox. In parts of three seasons as a Yankee, Rizzo is a .245/.344/.468 hitter with 51 home runs.

I doubt the Yankees regret making this swap, but it’s worked out nicely for the Cubs as well. Alcantara, now 20 years old, isn’t as highly regarded as Crow-Armstrong, but he entered the season ranked No. 91 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. He’s dropped off that list after a slow start in High-A (.250/.281/.389), but he still sits at No. 75 at FanGraphs and is generally a very well regarded prospect.

It’s worth bearing in mind that those pedestrian High-A numbers have been posted against competition that is, on average, nearly two and a half years older than Alcantara. The towering 6’6″ toolbox is also just a season removed from a much heartier .273/.360/.451 showing in Class-A, where he was nearly two years younger than the league’s average player. He’s a ways off, but like Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara has significantly elevated his stock since that 2021 trade. If the Cubs were so inclined, he too could be a significant piece in any potential deadline trade for controllable big league help. That’s not likely to happen — granted, it’s a bit more plausible with Alcantara than with Crow-Armstrong — but Alcantara has become a reasonably high-profile prospect.

That’s not the case with the now-26-year-old Vizcaino, though the circumstances surrounding his departure from baseball remain unclear. The Cubs placed Vizcaino on the restricted list in 2022  after he failed to report to spring training. He spent the entire year on the restricted list. The Cubs non-tendered him last offseason, and he didn’t sign with another team. Details surrounding Vizcaino’s abrupt departure from the game are basically nonexistent. The obvious hope is that he’s happy and healthy wherever he’s at, but it’s a disappointing outcome for the Cubs.

As for the third and final chapter of this deadline trio, Bryant proved an important pickup for the Giants. True, San Francisco would’ve made the postseason regardless, evidenced by their MLB-best 107 wins that season, but they edged out the division-rival Dodgers for that NL West crown by a margin of just one game. Bryant’s solid .262/.344/.444 slash may not have been in line with his peak form, but he contributed a meaningful presence in the Giants’ lineup down the stretch. They’d go on to fall to those same Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but not through any fault of Bryant’s. He delivered an 8-for-17 performance in the NLDS, adding a homer and a walk with only three strikeouts in 18 total trips to the plate.

Unlike with the other two trades, Cubs fans have at least gotten a look at one element of this return, although the now-26-year-old Kilian’s big league work to date hasn’t been pretty. The 6’4″ righty is still widely regarded as one of the organization’s best pitching prospects, but he’s been tagged for 20 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings through a pair of very limited auditions. He’s pitched 148 Triple-A innings as a starter over the past two seasons, logging a 4.32 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate.

Command wasn’t an issue for him prior to reaching Triple-A, but he struggled with walks last year. It’s encouraging that he’s walked just 6.8% of his opponents over his past seven Triple-A starts, pitching to a 3.09 ERA along the way, but Kilian has also plunked six hitters in that time so he’s not out of the woods with his shaky location just yet. He’s in the mix to come up and make some starts this year still, and depending on how he fares, Kilian could be a candidate for a rotation spot either later this season or in 2024.

As for Canario, he finished second among all minor leaguers with 37 home runs in 2022 and hit .252/.343/.556 across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He added 23 steals (in 26 tries) and walked at an 11% clip, though his 27.5% strikeout rate was more concerning. Baseball America calls him a potential low-average slugger with plenty of walks, above-average speed and above-average defense in right field. He hasn’t yet gotten a chance to build on last year’s breakout, as he dislocated his shoulder while playing in the Dominican Winter League.

We’re just shy of two years removed from the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, and while it’s still early to grade the overall strength of their return, things are looking promising. To trade three rental players and come away with a pair of top-100 prospects — including one who’s widely ranked in the top 25 — as well as a near-MLB starting pitcher and a strikeout-prone but prodigious slugging outfielder with power, speed and defensive upside is objectively impressive.

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the caliber of the players the Cubs were trading, but not all trades of star players result in this type of return. The Orioles have still barely gotten anything from the Manny Machado trade nearly five years after its completion. The Rangers’ trade of Darvish to the Dodgers netted them one immediate top prospect, but two years after the deal that prospect (Willie Calhoun) was already looking like a questionable big leaguer.

The tail-end of the development phase for the prospects acquired here — particularly Crow-Armstrong — will define this series of trades. But four of the five prospects acquired in this slate of trades have enhanced their stock since joining the Cubs, who now have a handful of near-MLB-ready talent and/or trade chips to show for parting with a trio of popular veterans. The 2021 trade deadline was a dark few days for Cubs fans, but there’s a good chance it’ll wind up leading to some brighter times ahead.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Borucki, 29, made his major league debut as a starter with the Blue Jays back in 2018. He pitched to a solid 3.87 ERA in 97 2/3 innings of work across 18 starts. Unfortunately, injuries limited Borucki to just 6 2/3 innings in 2019, leaving him to convert to relief ahead of the 2020 season. Since his move to the bullpen, Borucki has struggled, posting a 4.66 ERA and 5.30 FIP over 65 2/3 innings across the past three seasons. He joined the Cubs on a minor league deal this past offseason, and gives the club a left-handed option out of the bullpen while Brandon Hughes is on the 15-day injured list with left knee inflammation.

Kilian, 26 in June, heads back to Triple-A after a brutal spot start yesterday where he surrendered seven runs on 10 hits, two walks and two hit batsmen in just 3 1/3 innings against the Marlins. Acquired from the Giants alongside Alexander Canario in the deal that sent Kris Bryant to San Francisco, Kilian was considered one of Chicago’s top prospects headed into last season. Things started to unravel for Kilian when he made his big league debut last summer. The right-hander posted a 10.32 ERA across three starts in the majors before heading back to the Triple-A, where he posted a 6.54 ERA in 63 1/3 innings for the remainder of the 2022 campaign.

Things haven’t gone much better for Kilian in 2023, as he had posted a 7.15 ERA in three starts at Triple-A prior to yesterday’s disastrous call up. Kilian was needed yesterday as both Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks are on the shelf, though Taillon threw a bullpen yesterday per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times and Hendricks is currently rehabbing at Triple-A, leaving room to return Kilian to Triple-A in hopes he can return to his 2021 form.

It’s a bit of a blow to the Cubs’ bullpen, as Hughes was off to a solid start working to a 3.18 ERA with nine strikeouts across 5 2/3 innings. That backed up his rookie year in which the 27-year-old pitched to a 3.12 ERA over 57 2/3 innings. The southpaw posts quality strikeout rates, and limits left handed hitters to a .208/.283/.281 batting line, giving up just one home runs in 108 plate appearances over his short career.

The left knee appears to be a bit of a problem for Hughes, who was bothered by it during Spring Training and wound up on the IL on Opening Day as a result. The Cubs will certainly be hoping a second trip to the IL is enough to eliminate the problem.

With Hughes out, the Cubs will turn to Kilian, a right hander who’s only major league experience consists of three starts for the Cubs last season. Those starts didn’t go too well, as Kilian was rocked for 13 earned runs and gave up 12 walks in 11 1/3 innings of work. He’s struggled to a 7.15 ERA in his first three starts at Triple-A this season.

• The Diamondbacks don’t yet know what their approach will be when it comes to the trade deadline, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. GM Mike Hazen wants to see a little more from his club, who at 30-35 sits 6.5 games out of a wild card spot. It does not sound like the Diamondbacks are willing to move any heralded prospects, no matter how the next few weeks go, but if they remain in the race, Hazen could augment his current roster around the periphery, certainly when it comes to pitching, Gilbert notes.
• Cubs prospect Caleb Kilian is going to be in the rotation for the foreseeable future, and while that’s certainly their long-term hope for him, right now it’s more about need than performance, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney. With Wade Miley, Marcus Stroman, Adbert Alzolay, and Drew Smyly all on the injured list, the Cubs are going to let Killian earn his keep in the rotation, at least for a while.
• As for Stroman, he played catch today for the first time since going on the shelf, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). That puts Stroman still aways from a return. No timetable has been put on his official return schedule.

The news of Kilian’s promotion first came across the wire yesterday. His performance will carry more consequence to Cubs’ fans than a normal prospect because of his status as the trade return for Kris Bryant, the one-time face-of-the-franchise. Whether or not it makes sense to put that burden on Kilian, the optics of Kilian’s progress are likely to serve as a touch point for judging the effectiveness of President of Baseball Ops Jed Hoyer’s rebuilding efforts. He’s not the only one, but because Kilian was one of only two pitching prospects returned in the deals for Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Yu Darvish, and Javier Baez, his importance among the group of acquired prospects is somewhat bloated.

Leiter Jr., 31, has been up and down this season as both a starter and reliever. He has been a tad generous with free passes with a 9-to-16 walk-to-strikeout ratio over 17 1/3 innings in the bigs. Though a 4.53 FIP suggests he can be a serviceable arm, the bottom-line results have not been there, as he has racked up a 6.23 ERA.

Menez, 27, was designated for assignment to clear a space on the 40-man roster. He made just one appearance for the Cubs, tossing a scoreless inning. The southpaw has logged 17 1/3 innings in Triple-A, however, with a 2.08 ERA. Claimed off waivers from the Giants this past December, Menez will again be exposed to open waivers.

Espinoza, meanwhile, made his Major League debut just a couple of days ago, tossing four innings against the Brewers, giving up two earned runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six.

Chicago acquired Kilian last summer, adding him alongside outfield prospect Alexander Canario from the Giants for Kris Bryant minutes before the trade deadline. San Francisco had selected Kilian in the eighth round of the 2019 draft out of Texas Tech, and he’s elevated his stock with a strong showing in the minor leagues. The right-hander owned an excellent 2.43 ERA through 63 Double-A innings at the time of the trade, and he’s continued to thrive since changing organizations.

Kilian made four starts with the Cubs Double-A affiliate down the stretch, then has started this season at Triple-A Iowa. He’s worked nine starts and tossed 39 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.06 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates (24.8% and 9.1% respectively). Kilian has induced grounders on nearly 60% of batted balls against him — well north of the 43.1% MLB average.

Baseball America recently ranked Kilian the #5 prospect in the Chicago system, writing that he’s improved his raw stuff since entering pro ball. According to BA, the 6’4″ hurler works in the low-mid 90s on his fastball and has a trio of average or better secondary offerings (curveball, cutter and changeup). The outlet credits Kilian with plus control, while FanGraphs wrote this offseason that he may wind up with plus-plus command (a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale) at peak. Both publications suggest he’s likely to be a long-term starting pitcher — probably a middle or back of the rotation arm.

The Cubs would’ve had to add Kilian to the 40-man roster after this season to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, and they’ll bring him aboard a few months early. It remains to be seen whether the first call will be more than a spot start, as the Cubs and Cards are slated for a doubleheader. Whether it’s immediate or at some point a bit down the line, though, the retooling club figures to install Kilian as a regular rotation member fairly soon.

Even if Kilian is in the majors from here on out, he won’t reach a full year of service time this season. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 campaign at the earliest. Kilian would be in strong position to qualify for early arbitration after 2025 as a Super Two player, but optional assignments back to Iowa could change that trajectory.