These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day/evening as deals are announced and/or reported.

• The Mets announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, though salary figures have not yet been reported. He was projected for a $900K salary next year after posting a 1.66 ERA but in just 21 2/3 innings due to injury.
• The Rangers announced they avoided arbitration with right-hander Josh Sborz, who was projected for a $1.3MM salary next year. He’ll come in just shy of that at $1.1MM, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). He underwent a shoulder debridement procedure recently, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and will likely miss the first two or three months of 2025.
• The Tigers and infielder Andy Ibanez have agreed to a salary of $1.4MM next year, per Francys Romero (X link). That’s a shade below his $1.5MM projection. Ibanez hit .241/.295/.357 in 99 games for the Tigers in 2024.
• The Guardians avoided arbitration with right-hander Ben Lively, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). He’ll make $2.25MM next year, below his $3.2MM projection. Lively had a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings for the Guards this year.
• The Cubs and right-hander Julian Merryweather have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.225MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). That’s just shy of his $1.3MM projection. Merryweather had a 6.60 ERA in 2024 but was injured most of the time and only made 15 appearances. He had a solid 3.38 ERA the year prior in 72 innings. The Cubs also agreed to terms with catcher Matt Thaiss and righty Keegan Thompson, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link), though salary figures have not yet been reported.
• The Blue Jays got a deal done with right-hander Erik Swanson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X. The righty was projected for $3.2MM next year but will make a smidge less than that, with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X link) relaying that Swanson will make $3MM. He had a 5.03 ERA in 2024 but was at 2.97 the year prior and also finished this year strong, with a 2.55 ERA in the second half.
• The Yankees reached agreement with center fielder Trent Grisham on a $5MM salary, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN (on X). The deal contains another $250K in incentives. The two-time Gold Glove winner had been projected at $5.7MM. Grisham had an underwhelming .190/.290/.385 showing during his first season in the Bronx. The Yankees will nevertheless keep him around for his final year of arbitration, presumably in a fourth outfield capacity. The Yankees also announced that they have a deal with righty JT Brubaker, though figures haven’t been reported. He was projected for a salary of $2.275MM, the same figure he made in 2023 and 2024, two seasons he missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• The Rockies reached deals with outfielder Sam Hilliard and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath, Feinsand reports (on X). Hilliard gets $1MM, while Gilbreath signed for $785K. Both figures come in shy of the respective $1.7MM and $900K projections. Hilliard popped 10 home runs over 58 games as a depth outfielder. Gilbreath only made three appearances after missing the entire ’23 season to Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings two years ago.

Earlier Agreements

• The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have agreed to a $5.4MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link), an exact match for his projection. He had signed a two-year, $6.65MM deal to cover the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He made 20 starts for the Dodgers in the first year of that pact but he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• The Guardians and Sam Hentges have agreed to a $1.337MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. That’s right in line with his projected $1.4MM salary. The left-hander has been an effective reliever for Cleveland over the past three seasons (2.93 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 138 IP), but he missed the latter half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. After undergoing surgery in September, he will miss the entire 2025 season.
• The Orioles and infielder Emmanuel Rivera agreed to a $1MM deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at $1.4MM. He hit .238/.312/.343 this year.
• Right-hander Brock Stewart and the Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth $870K, MLBTR has learned. He’d been projected at $800K. Stewart, who missed much of the season due to injury, can earn another $30K via incentives. He’s been lights-out for the Twins when healthy over the past two seasons (2.28 ERA, 33.5 K%, 10.8 BB%). Minnesota and righty Michael Tonkin also agreed to a $1MM deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected at $1.5MM. The Twins later announced that they had reached deals with Stewart, Tonkin and righty Justin Topa. Hewas projected for $1.3MM next year but will come in just shy of that in terms of guarantee. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune (Bluesky link), it’s a $1.225MM guarantee in the form of a $1MM salary and then a $225K buyout on a $2MM club option for 2026.
• The Padres and Tyler Wade agreed to a one-year deal worth $900K, Heyman tweets. There’s a club option for an additional season. Wade, who hit .217/.285/.239 in 2024, was projected for that same $900K figure.
• Infielder Santiago Espinal and the Reds settled on a one-year deal at $2.4MM, Heyman tweets. That’s well shy of his $4MM projection and actually represents a slight pay cut after Espinal hit .246/.295/.356 for Cincinnati.
• The Rangers and righty Dane Dunning agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.66MM, Heyman reports. It’s a 19% cut after Dunning struggled to a 5.31 ERA in 95 innings this past season. He was projected at $4.4MM.
• The Giants and right-hander Austin Warren agreed to terms on a one-year deal, reports Justice de los Santos of the San Jose Mercury News. He missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned late with 10 2/3 innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen.
• The Brewers announced that they’ve signed catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year deal for the upcoming season. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the deal guarantees Haase $1.35MM with the chance to earn more via incentives. He’d been projected for a $1.8MM salary. Haase will fill the backup catcher role in Milwaukee next season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
• The Dodgers and right-hander Dustin May settled at $2.135MM, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link). That’s the exact same salary he had in 2024. May will be looking to bounce back after spending all of this year on the injured list.
• The Phillies and right-hander José Ruiz settled at $1.225MM, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’s slightly above his $1.2MM projection. The righty can also unlock a $20K bonus for pitching in 30 games and $25K for pitching in 40. He made 52 appearances for the Phils in 2024 with a 3.71 ERA. Philadelphia also announced agreement with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs on a one-year deal. The Phils did not reveal the salary figure. Stubbs hit .207 in 54 games this year.
• The Tigers and infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry agreed to a $1.65MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X). That’s slightly ahead of his $1.3MM projection. He hit .215/.277/.337 this year while stealing 16 bases and playing each position except or first base and catcher,

It’s a frustrating development for Stewart, who was away from major league baseball from 2020-22 due to the canceled minor league season in 2020 and a pair of elbow surgeries (Tommy John surgery and a procedure to remove a bone spur). Stewart signed a minor league deal with the Twins and not only made it back to the majors on the heels of that pair of surgeries but emerged as a lights-out option in manager Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen.

While this year’s 5.17 earned run average is an eyesore, that’s skewed entirely by his recent struggles coming back from a monthslong stint on the injured list due to pain in his balky shoulder. Stewart allowed one run with a 17-to-6 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 innings to begin the season, hit the injured list for nearly three months, and clearly wasn’t at full strength when he returned. He was rocked for eight runs in 2 1/3 innings while working with a fastball and cutter that were both down nearly three miles per hour.

From the time Stewart’s contract was originally selected by the Twins in April 2023 to the time he first hit the injured list this past May, he was a legitimately overpowering force. An elbow issue sent him to the shelf for part of last summer, but Stewart pitched 41 innings for the Twins in that stretch and logged an incredible 0.66 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. Most of the command troubles he encountered came early, too. For the better part of a year, he was a shutdown option thanks to a heater averaging nearly 98 mph and a cutter and slider that both missed bats in droves.

While the latest injury setback is surely a tough pill for Stewart to swallow, given his earlier elbow problems, this time around he’ll go under the knife knowing that he’s cemented himself in a big league team’s plans. The Twins control Stewart, 32, for another three seasons via arbitration. He’ll get a salary bump north of $1MM in his first season of arb eligibility this winter, but given the dominance he showed prior to this year’s shoulder problem and the remaining long-term control, it’ll be an easy call for the Twins to tender him a contract.

July 24: The Twins announced Wednesday that they’ve designated infielder Diego Castillo for assignment and optioned right-hander Ronny Henriquez to Triple-A St. Paul. Their spots on the roster will go to reliever Brock Stewart, who’s been activated from the 60-day injured list, and righty David Festa, who’s been recalled from St. Paul.

Castillo, 26, appeared in four games with the Twins and went 2-for-6 with a double, two walks and a strikeout in eight plate appearances. He’s had a nice season in the minors as well, hitting a combined .274/.382/.403 in 296 plate  appearances between the Triple-A affiliates for Baltimore and Minnesota. That marks the continuation of a long run of OBP-driven production in the upper minors. Castillo has played in parts of four Triple-A seasons, and while he doesn’t hit for a ton of power, he’s a .290/.402/.406 hitter in 1073 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s primarily been a shortstop (3906 innings) but also has 1922 innings at second base, 619 innings at third base, 535 innings in left field, 224 innings in right field and 66 innings at first base.

Despite that versatility and a strong Triple-A track record, Castillo hasn’t gotten much big league playing time. He made his debut with the 2022 Pirates and logged a career-high 283 plate appearances. However, he hit just .206/.251/.382. The D-backs gave him one big league plate appearance in 2023, and the Twins have given him all of eight.

It’s certainly arguable that Castillo deserves a longer look somewhere, but a Twins organization that’s deeper in the infield than anywhere else on the diamond was probably never going to have that opportunity. Even with each of Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer and Alex Kirilloff on the injured list, Minnesota has Carlos Santana at first base, Edouard Julien at second base, All-Star Willi Castro at shortstop and top prospect Brooks Lee at third base. Several of the injured Twins will be back sooner than later, too. Lewis began a rehab assignment in Triple-A last night. Miranda will follow suit today.

Minnesota will either trade Castillo or place him on outright waivers within the next five days. Waivers themselves could be another 48-hour process. Castillo will know the outcome of his DFA within the next week.

As for Stewart, his return will be a significant boon for the Twins’ bullpen. The former Dodgers prospect has proven to be an exceptional find on a minor league pact. He’s missed time with injury in each of the past two seasons, but Stewart has added considerable velocity since his rotation days in the Dodgers’ system and has been a bullpen behemoth in Minnesota when healthy. He’s pitched 41 innings dating back to 2023 and carries a remarkable 0.66 ERA with a huge 34.8% strikeout rate against a 10.6% walk rate.

Stewart will slide right into a late-inning, high-leverage mix also including Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala. Righty Justin Topa also also went out on a rehab assignment yesterday, providing another potential boost in the near future. He’s been out all season with a knee injury but posted a 2.61 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 56.7% ground-ball rate in 69 innings for the Mariners last season. The Twins added Topa in the offseason trade that send Jorge Polanco to Seattle.

“A little mechanical adjustment” seemed to do the trick, as Meadows told Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that keeping his hands up allowed him to keep a more level swing, since “it’s hard to hit a rising fastball when your swing is uphill.”  While Meadows continued to have trouble with breaking balls in Toledo, being able to catch up with high velocity could help Meadows produce at something closer to average offense in the majors, which might be all he needs to stick as a regular center fielder given his top-tier glovework.  Since Detroit is falling out of the playoff race, the remainder of the season could be an important evaluation period for Meadows to show he can continue to be a key part of the Tigers’ future plans.

More from the AL Central…

• Yoan Moncada played in just 11 games before a left adductor strain sent him to the injured list, but the White Sox third baseman is set to get back to action in the Arizona Complex League next week.  Sox manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media that Moncada will be limited to only DH duty for now, and “if everything goes right, we’re looking at him probably at the end of, close to the end of July” for a return to the majors.  Moncada’s strain was bad enough that he was initially given a 3-to-6 month recovery timeline, and while his rehab plan still seems somewhat fluid, it seems like his season is no longer in jeopardy.  Moncada is in the final guaranteed year of his five-year, $70MM contract, and since Chicago is very unlikely to exercise its $25MM club option on Moncada for 2025, the infielder could be returning for his final games in a White Sox uniform.
• Alex Kirilloff has been on the Twins’ 10-day injured list since June 13 due to a back strain, and Kirilloff provided media (including the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale) with an update on his status yesterday.  Since part of the discomfort in Kirilloff’s back was due to a nerve issue, he received a cortisone shot and has been working on core-strengthening exercises for now, hopefully with an eye towards soon starting to take swings.  Injuries have plagued the career of the former top prospect, as Kirilloff has been limited to 249 games since his MLB debut in 2021 due to a shoulder surgery, two wrist surgeries, and now this back problem.
• In other Twins injury news, relievers Brock Stewart and Justin Topa each threw 20-pitch sessions (Stewart a live batting practice, Topa a bullpen session) in the last few days.  Stewart has now missed over two months due to tendinitis in his right shoulder, but manager Rocco Baldelli told Nightengale and other reporters that Stewart isn’t far away from a minor league rehab assignment.  Topa has yet to pitch at all this season after initially starting on the IL with left patellar tendinitis, but in mid-May was diagnosed with a partial tear in his patellar tendon.  Since Topa has only recently restarted his throwing progression, it will still be a while before the right-hander is fully ready for his 2024 debut.

Lee, now 23, was selected with the eighth overall pick in 2022 and signed with an overslot bonus of $5.675MM. Since then, in short, he has mashed his way up the minor league ladder. That started right after he was drafted, as he got into 31 games in 2022, seeing time at the Complex League level, High-A and then Double-A. He produced a line of .303/.388/.451 in those games, walking at an 11.5% clip and striking out just 14.4% of the time.

He returned to Double-A last year and carried that kind of production over in his 87 games there in 2023. He had 11 home runs, a 10.3% walk rate, 15.8% strikeout rate and .292/.365/.476 batting line. He was promoted to Triple-A and his numbers dipped, though the rates were still good and his batting average on balls in play dropped from .325 at Double-A to .258 at the level above.

This year, a lower back strain put him on the minor league injured list to start the year. He didn’t make his season debut until May 20, getting some rehab games at the Complex League level and Single-A. He then was bumped to Triple-A and has hit seven homers in just 20 games there, walking 9.6% of the time and striking out at only a 13.8% clip. He currently sports a monster line of .329/.394/.635 in those 20 games for the Saints this year, which translates to a 159 wRC+.

That almost constant barrage of offense has him unsurprisingly ranked as one of the better prospects in the league. Baseball America currently lists him in the #28 spot, FanGraphs at #49 and MLB Pipeline at #13. ESPN put him 27th in their May update while Keith Law of The Athletic had him 31st coming into the year.

Lee has largely played shortstop in his career thus far, though there’s some disagreement about whether he’ll stick there. His speed is only average but he is considered to have a reliability at the position that makes him passable there. With Carlos Correa pretty firmly implanted at that spot for the Twins for now, it’s been speculated that Lee may be ticketed for a move to either second or third, with his arm considered strong enough for the hot corner.

For much of the recent past, the Twins have had too many infielders to find time for everyone, so much so that Jorge Polanco was flipped to the Mariners in the offseason. Even with him out of the picture, they’ve had Lewis, Carlos Santana, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, José Miranda, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer and Austin Martin in the infield mix alongside Correa.

But that picture has gotten a bit less crowded as the season has gone along. Julien struggled and got himself optioned to Triple-A. Kirilloff is on the injured list. Farmer is a glove-first bench player who isn’t hitting much this year. Castro and Martin have been bouncing between the infield and outfield.

Lately, the club has been rolling with a primary alignment of Santana at first and Correa at short, while Lewis and Miranda have shared third base and the designated hitter slot, with second base duties rotating between Castro, Farmer and Martin.

Getting Lee into that mix is easier now that Lewis is headed for yet another stint on the injured list. The incredibly talented but oft-injured player has hit .303/.361/.584 since his May 2022 promotion, but with various injuries limiting him to just 94 big league contests. He was removed from last night’s game with some groin tightness and Dan Hayes of The Athletic relayed after the contest that Lewis was headed for an MRI.

Time will tell exactly how Lee is used, and whether or not this is a brief stint to cover for Lewis or if he is in the majors for good. In the long term, their infield logjam is likely to continue into the future. Of the aforementioned group, only Santana and Farmer are slated for free agency after this year. Farmer has a mutual option on his deal but those pacts are almost never triggered by both sides.

For now, Lee will get a shot against big league pitching and will try to cement himself as a key part of the long-term infield in Minnesota, as well as helping them return to the postseason this year. The club is currently 48-37 and in possession of a Wild Card spot in the American League. If Lee is up for good, he will qualify for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030, though future optional assignments could alter those timelines.

As for Stewart, his transfer was a formality as he’s already been on the IL for 60 days at this point. He was placed there May 2 due to right shoulder tendinitis. He is scheduled for some upcoming bullpen sessions, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune on X, but will need some more time to ramp up.

Paddack expanded that while his general approach is that he wants the ball at every opportunity, he also felt the need to listen to his body and “not be a hero” after a recent dip in his fastball velocity and feelings of a “dead arm.” The 28-year-old righty has tossed 78 1/3 innings this season — already his most since 2021 and in fact more than he pitched in 2022-23 combined (majors and minor league rehab work included). Some fatigue and workload management was to be expected, and the recent drop in velocity prompted the team to make a move.

Notably, Nightengale adds that manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed Paddack will return to the rotation once he’s reinstated from the injured list. There’s no plan to shift the right-hander to a relief role at this time, though he thrived in that setting down the stretch and in the postseason with the Twins last year when he tossed a combined 8 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with a hefty 14 strikeouts. Paddack’s fastball sat at a career-high 95.5 mph last year in relief, per Statcast, and he was frequently touching the upper 90s in the playoffs.

Perhaps a return to that role could be in play down the line (speculatively speaking), but the organization will continue starting him for now. Paddack has a 5.29 ERA in 15 starts, due largely to a pair of ugly outings at Camden Yards (nine runs) and at Yankee Stadium (seven runs).

In the short term, the Twins will need to plug someone into the fifth spot in their rotation. KSTP’s Darren Wolfson reports that Minnesota will start reliever Ryan Jensen today at Triple-A instead of top prospect David Festa, presumably setting the stage for Festa to make his big league debut tomorrow in Arizona. (Note: I misread the team’s game log yesterday and incorrectly wrote that Festa had pitched too recently to be an option; my apologies for the error.)

The 24-year-old Festa has been sharp in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 3.77 ERA with a huge 35.1% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and a strong 45.5% grounder rate. While his walk rate could stand to come down a few ticks, it’s worth pointing out that Festa has improved considerably in that regard as the season has progressed. After walking an alarming 20% of his opponents through his first four starts, he’s slashed his walk rate to 6.7% — including zero walks over his past two outings. His strikeout rate has improved a bit as he’s honed his command, sitting at 37.3% in his 10 most recent outings.

Festa is considered one of the Twins’ best — if not their best — pitching prospects. He sits at No. 99 on MLB.com’s recently updated top-100 list and is the game’s No. 93 prospect over at FanGraphs. He’s been a nice development story for the Twins as a 13th-round pick in 2021 who signed for a $125K bonus. Minnesota will need to add Festa to the 40-man roster if he is indeed called upon for his debut, but they have an open spot at the moment anyhow (and righty Brock Stewart has already been on the 15-day IL for nearly 60 days in the event that they need a second space anytime soon).

While Festa’s progress toward the big leagues is a big positive, the Twins’ former top pitching prospect, Matt Canterino, has had yet another setback, per Nightengale. The 26-year-old righty is headed for an MRI on his shoulder after experiencing discomfort in a recent bullpen session. Canterino, the No. 54 overall pick back in 2019, has dominated minor league opponents when healthy, evidenced by a career 1.48 ERA and 39.1% strikeout rate since being drafted.

Unfortunately, between the pandemic-canceled 2020 season and repeated injuries, he’s only been able to pitch 85 innings in total. He most recently underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and has yet to get back into a minor league game since that time. He’s on the Twins’ 40-man roster and is in the first of three minor league option years, so they needn’t yet consider cutting him loose to open a spot, but it’s another frustrating setback for the talented but oft-injured righty.

There’s better news on a pair of injured Twins relievers, however. The aforementioned Stewart pitched a bullpen session three days ago and will do so again today and on the 29th, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The former Dodgers prospect has been a revelation since joining the Twins on a minor league deal, pitching 41 innings of relief with a 0.66 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate dating back to last season. He’s been out since early May with a shoulder injury.

As for righty Justin Topa, whom the Twins acquired in the offseason Jorge Polanco trade, he’s slated to throw a bullpen session in early July, per Park. The right-hander suffered a 25% tear of the patellar tendon in his knee during spring training, Park notes, but was recommended for a platelet-rich plasma injection and rest rather than surgery. Twins trainer Nick Paparesta detailed that Topa will then ramp up through the All-Star break before being reevaluated. A second-half return remains in play for the righty, who pitched 69 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Mariners in 2023 and is under team control with the Twins through 2026.

While the magic of the Rally Sausage has seemingly made the Twins unstoppable, plenty of injury concerns remain, including a pair of new players joining the injured list on Friday.  In addition to Byron Buxton being sidelined with right knee inflammation, the Twins also placed right-hander Brock Stewart on the 15-day IL due to tendinitis in his throwing shoulder.  Stewart’s placement is retroactive to May 2, and left-hander Kody Funderburk was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Sending Stewart to the IL was a bit of a precautionary measure, as manager Rocco Baldelli told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and other reporters.  Stewart’s shoulder has been bothering him for a week, and “this is us really trying to get ahead of something and not trying to let it get down the road where he’s missing a significant period of time,” Baldelli said.  “He’s still throwing the ball really well….But it doesn’t feel the way it needs to feel right now.”

It is understandable that the Twins would be careful given Stewart’s checkered injury history.  He missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, threw only 14 minor league innings in 2022 after returning from rehab, and then missed three months of the 2023 season with elbow soreness.

After posting a 6.05 ERA over 105 2/3 MLB innings with the Dodgers and Blue Jays from 2016-19 and then not getting any big league action in the next three seasons, Stewart’s limited work with the Twins has been outstanding.  The righty posted an 0.65 ERA and 35.8% strikeout rate over 27 2/3 innings for Minnesota last season, and had an 0.68 ERA and a 32.7% K% in his first 13 1/3 frames in 2024.  Though an unsustainably high 99.5% strand rate and an uninspiring 10.6% walk rate are red flags, the 32-year-old Stewart has looked like an entirely different pitcher during his time in Minnesota, and a big bullpen weapon if he can stay healthy.

Stewart’s performance helped the Twins’ bullpen not miss a beat when Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar started the season on the IL, but now that both pitchers are back in action, the relief corps will take another hit due to Stewart’s own absence.  Justin Topa has also yet to pitch in 2024 due to right knee tendinitis, and though Topa has made three Triple-A outings, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told Helfand and company that Topa will “take a little more time with the rehab assignment” before activation.

“[Topa] hasn’t felt at 100 percent yet.  He hasn’t felt like he’s really where he needs to be, but he’s progressing well,” Falvey said.  “We don’t want to rush that.  We want to make sure he’s back and feeling good and feeling like he can execute the pitches he wants to execute.”

In other injury news, Royce Lewis updated reporters (including The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) on the status of his recovery from the quad strain that has kept him out of the Twins’ lineup since he left partway through the club’s first game of the season.  Tests have revealed that the strain is healing at a usual pace, and Lewis has been able to increase his baseball activities to include some running and fielding work, as well as 80 swings in the batting cage.

As Hayes notes, the initial expectation was that it would take Lewis roughly eight weeks to return to action, though no timeline was ever fully established due to the uncertain nature of quad injuries in general, and the severity of Lewis’ strain.  While it would seem as though Lewis is making solid progress, he admitted to some frustration over “the mental challenge” of trying to work through the rehab process without having a target date in place.

“I’ve just got to keep continuing to wait,” Lewis said.  “The hardest thing is not having a timeline….When you have no idea and you feel so good, it’s the most challenging rehab I’ve ever had.”

Jose Miranda and Kyle Farmer have gotten the bulk of playing time at third base with Lewis out, and Willi Castro has also seen some action at the hot corner though he had to step into regular shortstop duty when Carlos Correa was on the IL.  Miranada has hit well while Farmer has struggled badly at the plate, and with Correa back and Castro now able to chip in more frequently at third base, the Twins should hopefully be able to make do at the position until Lewis is able to return.

Paddack nearly made his return on Sunday, but a rain delay ended his outing before it began. Thus, it wasn’t until last night that he finally threw a pitch in a Major League Baseball game, his first since last May. While the results weren’t quite what he hoped for – he gave up three runs in two innings of work – the underlying numbers were encouraging. The 6-foot-5 right-hander struck out four, earning six called strikes and seven whiffs. His fastball was averaging 96 mph and touching 99; last season, his four-seam averaged just 93 mph and topped out at 96. To be fair, he was a starting pitcher last year, but even so, a 3-mph bump is a promising sign of good things to come. Paddack was never a power pitcher during his time as a starter, but he seems to have discovered a penchant for high heat.

Stewart, for his part, picked up right where he left off. The 31-year-old turned heads earlier this season, showing off a 97-mph fastball and striking out 35.4% of the batters he faced. His heater was back in full force on Tuesday, averaging just under 98 mph. He struck out two of three opposing hitters, inducing eight swings and four whiffs and lowering his season ERA to 0.68.

With Paddack and Stewart back in the fold, the Twins suddenly find themselves with an abundance of talented relievers, an asset every team longs for but few possess. Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagán, and Caleb Thielbar lead the way, with capable arms like Griffin Jax and Kody Funderburk behind them. Paddack and Stewart provide further depth, as do recently converted starters Louie Varland and Kenta Maeda. That’s nine arms the Twins can count on in October, many of whom have dominant reliever upside.

Manager Rocco Baldelli will lean a little harder on his most trustworthy guys, as all managers do in the playoffs. Still, Duran and Pagán can’t throw every day. When Baldelli has to turn to another bullpen arm, there really isn’t a bad option in the bunch.

Suffice it to say, this hasn’t been the case all year. On the season, Twins relievers rank eighth in the AL with a 3.98 ERA, ninth with 3.2 FanGraphs WAR, and 11th with 36 saves. Things have only gotten worse in the second half, in which they have a 4.27 ERA and 10 blown saves in 28 chances.

However, Minnesota’s bullpen looks completely different today than it has the rest of the year. Indeed, over the last two weeks, they lead the AL with a 2.93 ERA, and that’s without much contribution from Paddack, Stewart, and Maeda. Simply put, the Twins have added by subtraction, replacing their least effective relievers with stronger arms. They cut ties with Jorge López (5.09 ERA) and Dylan Floro (5.29). They optioned Brent Headrick (6.31) and Jordan Balazovic (4.44). Several more relievers are on the 60-day IL, including Jovani Moran (5.31), Jorge Alcala (6.46), and José De León (5.28).

Those seven pitchers threw a total of 175 1/3 innings in relief for the Twins this season; that’s one-third of the team’s bullpen workload. In those innings, they combined for an unsightly 5.39 ERA. To put that in perspective, all other Twins relievers have a 3.29 ERA this year, more than two full runs lower. That’s wider than the gap between the Dodgers’ bullpen (3.41 ERA) and the Rockies’ bullpen (5.31). Meanwhile, the nine relievers who currently make up the Twins’ bullpen have combined for a 2.84 ERA in 276 innings of work.

This team will enter the postseason as an underdog. By winning their division, the Twins are guaranteed to be either the No. 2 or 3 seed in the American League, yet still, they are likely to finish with the worst record in the AL playoff field. On paper, they are the weaker party, whether they’re facing the Blue Jays, the Astros, the Rangers, or the Mariners. That being the case, the Twins must be better than their regular season record suggests if they hope to advance.

It will help if Minnesota gets Carlos Correa, and possibly Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, back in time for the Wild Card series. The lineup could certainly use the star power. Ultimately, however, the relief corps will be this team’s secret weapon. The Twins have more depth and fewer liabilities in the bullpen than at any other point this season. Accordingly, they’ll be counting on their relievers to give them an edge come October.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Floro joined the Twins just before the trade deadline, coming over from the Marlins in a one-for-one swap for Jorge López. Both pitchers were in the midst of disappointing seasons, and perhaps their new teams thought a change of scenery would do them some good. Suffice it to say, that hasn’t been the case for either one. Floro made 19 appearances for Minnesota, pitching to a 5.29 ERA. His underlying numbers were better (3.43 FIP, 3.70 SIERA), but still, he never looked like the shutdown reliever he was over the previous three seasons; from 2020-22, he posted a 2.85 ERA in 142 innings of work.

Meanwhile, López made 12 appearances for the Marlins, giving up 13 runs on 20 hits before his new club placed him on waivers. He was claimed by the Orioles, his former team, and has since pitched to a 6.10 ERA in 11 games. Overall, he has a 6.12 ERA and -1.0 FanGraphs WAR on the season.

The Twins will have to place Floro on waivers, and given how few days remain in the regular season (and his $3.9MM salary), it’s likely he goes unclaimed. He has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to the minor leagues, which would give him the chance to start his free agency a month early; after parts of eight MLB seasons, the veteran was set to hit the open market regardless. Considering his long track record of success before this difficult campaign, the 32-year-old righty should have no trouble finding a new club.

Stewart got off to a strong start in 2023, shining out of the bullpen in his first taste of MLB action since 2019. In 25 outings, he gave up just two earned runs, good for a 0.70 ERA. With a 97-mph fastball and four secondary pitches, he struck out more than 35% of the batters he faced, holding his opponents to a .172 batting average and a .230 wOBA.

In his last ten appearances before he landed on the IL, Stewart pitched 10 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 18 and walking none. Unfortunately, at the end of June, he began to feel discomfort in his elbow – a particularly worrisome development for a pitcher who recently recovered from Tommy John surgery. He spent the next three months on the IL but thankfully managed to avoid another surgery.

As Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports, the 31-year-old is expected to pitch in this evening’s contest against the Athletics. The Twins, having already clinched their division, will spend the final six games of the season preparing their players for the postseason.

Kirilloff was playing in his first MLB game since July 29, as a right shoulder strain forced the former top prospect to the sidelines.  Since recovery from wrist surgery already delayed Kirilloff’s season debut until May 6, he has played in only 70 games this season, though Kirilloff has hit a solid .270/.355/.439 over 262 plate appearances.  A hefty .353 BABIP has certainly aided that production, but it still represents a very nice step forward for Kirilloff after wrist problems hampered his first two seasons in the majors.

Now back on the active roster, Kirilloff figures to resume his role as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, with Donovan Solano stepping in to spell Kirilloff against left-handed pitching.  Gallo was also a significant part of the first base mix, but he’ll now miss some time after fouling a ball off his foot, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).

Signed to a one-year, $11MM free agent contract last winter, Gallo has to some extent rebounded from his rough 2022 season, as his .177/.301/.440 slash line and 21 homers in 332 PA does translate to an above-average 103 wRC+.  However, most of Gallo’s production came in April, and he has been in a pronounced slump for the rest of the season.  Gallo’s ability to play first base and all three outfield positions has made him a useful asset for a Minnesota team that has been hit with multiple injuries over the course of 2023, but it remains to be seen if Gallo will be part of a postseason roster, should the Twins hold on to win the AL Central.

Byron Buxton’s status is also an x-factor at this point, as the former All-Star hasn’t played since appearing in a minor league rehab game on September 1.  Buxton was playing in his first game as an outfielder in over a year, as recurring knee problems resulted in arthroscopic surgery late in the 2022 season, and the Twins’ decision to use Buxton exclusively as a designated hitter this season.  With Buxton currently on the IL due to a hamstring injury, the Twins were trying to ease Buxton back into fielding duty, only to be set back by this latest case of patella tendinitis.

Baldelli didn’t have any new update on when Buxton might be able to play again, at either the minor league or MLB levels.  There’s something of a holding pattern situation until Buxton is healthy, but as Baldelli noted, “that doesn’t mean he’s not going to play for us.  We’re anticipating him working his way back and taking the field for us.”

In other Twins injury news, Michael A. Taylor and Nick Gordon each took part in a live batting practice session against Brock Stewart, as all three players continue to make some progress in their rehab work.  Gordon still isn’t expected back until closer to the end of the regular season, but Taylor might be back in relatively short order, after being placed on the IL last Sunday due to a right hamstring strain.

In addition to the live BP session, Taylor also said he did some baserunning work on Friday.  Taylor has hit a career-high 20 homers and has been one of baseball’s best defensive center fielders, putting him in line for his second career Gold Glove and giving Minnesota some much-needed relief up the middle with Buxton relegated to DH work.

Stewart last pitched in the majors in 2019 before resurfacing with the Twins this year, and he returned in grand fashion by posting an 0.70 ERA over 25 2/3 relief innings.  Unfortunately, Stewart’s season was cut short by elbow soreness in late June, which has now led to a lengthy stint on the 60-day injured list.  Stewart is likely to need some minor league rehab work given the longer layoff, but he should be able to get back before the regular season is over.

Luplow adds some balance to a lefty-heavy Minnesota outfield. A right-handed hitter, he’s been a solid power threat against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Luplow owns a .226/.337/.497 slash in 520 MLB plate appearances versus southpaws. He’s been leveraged in a platoon capacity throughout his big league time, only picking up 467 trips to the dish against same-handed arms (and hitting .199/.289/.354).

The bulk of Luplow’s production has come in previous seasons, however. The 29-year-old has barely played at the big league level this year. He’s made seven appearances around a pair of DFAs with the Blue Jays, who’d claimed him from Atlanta during the first week of the year. He’s posted roughly average numbers at Triple-A Buffalo, hitting .239/.341/.438 over 208 plate appearances.

Stewart had been amidst a breakout season that was interrupted by elbow soreness. He went for an MRI this week after experiencing renewed discomfort (relayed by Dan Hayes of the Athletic). It’s unclear how long he’ll be out, though the transfer officially puts him on the shelf until the final week of August.

One club the Twins have spoken to has both to offer. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News tweets that the Twins have talked with the Nationals, who have been scouting Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul. The Nats are just one of many teams the Twins have spoken too, of course, but the presence of outfielder Lane Thomas and surely available relievers like Kyle Finnegan present some obvious fits.

Falvey suggested that the Twins will be in the market for more “complementary” pieces, which might take someone like Thomas off the table, though as a lefty-mashing outfielder with multiple seasons of club control remaining beyond the current year, he’s an on-paper fit at the very least.

Falvey noted, however, that he’s amenable to trading for rental players. The trade market figures to have plenty of righty-swinging options who fit that bill — Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and Adam Duvall potentially among them. (Canha has a 2024 option.)

The Twins are hitting just .219/.293/.369 against left-handed pitching this season, thanks in no small part to a glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders that at one point looked likely to lead to an offseason trade. That never materialized, however.

[Related: Twins’ Outfielders Drawing Trade Attention]

Many of the Twins’ offseason acquisitions who were added with an eye toward bolstering the lineup against southpaws have fallen shy of expectation in that regard. Christian Vazquez, Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor all have some past success against lefties, but none has been more than average against southpaws in 2023. Kyle Farmer has hit lefties well but not up to his prior standards.

Incumbent righty bats like Byron Buxton and the previously optioned (and now injured) Jose Miranda, meanwhile, have struggled against southpaws. Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco have hit lefties well, but both are on sitting alongside Miranda on the injured list. Polanco has been out since early June. Lewis hit the IL in early July and isn’t expected back until next month.

Similarly, the Twins are missing some key contributors in the bullpen. Left-hander Caleb Thielbar has quietly become an excellent setup man since his 2020 return to the big leagues after a five-year absence. The 36-year-old has pitched to a 3.10 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate since 2020 but has just 10 1/3 innings this year due to a pair of oblique injuries.

Brock Stewart, another diamond-in-the-rough find for the Twins, returned to the Majors for the first time since 2019 this year and has posted a 0.70 ERA and 35.4% strikeout rate for the Twins. However, he’s been out since late July with an elbow issue. Stewart threw his first bullpen session today and will throw another Saturday, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (Twitter link), but it’s not yet clear just when he’ll be back in the Twins’ bullpen. The absence of both Thielbar and Stewart was felt last night when the Twins’ relief corps squandered a four-run lead and strong start from Pablo Lopez in a game they eventually dropped to the Mariners by a score of 9-7.

The 35-year-old has plenty of experience as a solid left-handed reliever, having appeared in 527 career games with an ERA of 3.41. He’s struck out 25.9% of batters faced, walked 10.7% of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 46.8% rate. If he’s able to get healthy and back to his old self, he could give the club a second lefty in the bullpen alongside Hoby Milner.

Wilson will likely need some time to get into game shape, but the fact that he’s beginning a rehab assignment barely a year after going under the knife is an encouraging sign that things are progressing well. His health and performance down the stretch will undoubtedly impact how much interest the Brewers have in picking up that option.

Some other health notes from around the league…

• Athletics right-hander Drew Rucinski has had a frustrating season in the health department and those frustrations seem to be continuing. He landed on the injured list in late May due to a stomach illness but that was followed by a low-grade MCL sprain in his right knee suffered during a bullpen session. Now Martín Gallegos of MLB.com relays that Rucinski will be undergoing MRIs on his left hip and lower back due to some apparent degenerative changes. That testing will hopefully shed some light on what’s ahead for the righty, whose return to North America isn’t going as hoped. He parlayed a strong performance in the KBO into a $3MM deal with the A’s plus a $5MM club option for 2024. He began the year on the IL due to a hamstring strain then got healthy enough to make four starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 18 innings before this recent cascade of setbacks. He’s already been transferred to the 60-day injured list and isn’t eligible to return until late July.
• Twins right-hander Brock Stewart was placed on the 15-day injured list yesterday, retroactive to June 26, with right elbow soreness. His agent Joe Speed told Darren Wolfson of Skor North that it wasn’t a big issue and expressed confidence that Stewart would be able to contribute in the second half of the season. Manager Rocco Baldelli also seemed to think it wouldn’t be a huge problem, telling Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune that it appeared to be a minor bout of tendinitis. If it ultimately proves to be true that it’s no big deal, that’s a tremendous break for the Twins. Stewart has been utterly dominant this year, with an ERA of 0.70 through 25 2/3 innings, striking out 35.4% of opponents against an 11.1% walk rate. It’s been an incredible comeback story for a guy who is in the big leagues for the first time since 2019 and the club would undoubtedly be thrilled if he could make a quick return after the All-Star break.

Megill, 29, made his major league debut with the Cubs in 2021. He posted an 8.37 ERA in 28 appearances, though he struck out 26.1% of batters faced and walked just 7%. He was claimed off waivers by the Twins at season’s end, though they quickly non-tendered him and re-signed him on a minor league deal. He got selected to the roster in May and made 39 appearances for the Twins last year, registering a 4.80 ERA. It’s possible that he deserved even better, given his .368 batting average on balls in play and 62.5% strand rate. Decent peripherals like a 25% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate led to a 3.29 FIP and 3.38 SIERA.

The righty was optioned to Triple-A to start this season but has gotten out to an atrocious start. He’s tossed 9 2/3 innings over seven outings, walking 25.5% of batters faced, which has contributed to an unsightly 13.03 ERA. He struck out 31.4% of batters faced and got grounders at a 50% clip, but the overall results were clearly not great.

The Twins will now have a week to trade Megill or pass him through waivers. Despite his rough start to the year, other clubs may overlook that small sample and take a flier on the righty based on past results, as he still has a couple of options and has yet to qualify for arbitration.

This will be the first MLB stint for the 31-year-old Stewart since 2019, when he tossed 25 2/3 innings between the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, and Tommy John surgery plus a second procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow wiped out most of his 2021-22 seasons. Stewart made it back to a minor league mound with the Twins late in the ’22 season but struggled across three levels, allowing 10 earned runs in 14 innings.

The 2023 season has been a much different story thus far. He’s blitzed out of the gate with a 2.08 ERA and gaudy 48.6% strikeout rate in 8 2/3 innings, walking just 5.7% of his opponents. Stewart’s raw 17-to-2 K/BB ratio is intriguing, even in a small sample at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’s added considerable velocity in recent years. Stewart averaged 92.8 mph on his four-seamer during his 2016-19 run with Los Angeles and Toronto but has since moved to short relief stints and ramped that velocity into the upper 90s. In addition to that massive strikeout rate, he’s also sporting an enormous 22.1% swinging-strike rate in St. Paul.

The back end of the Twins’ bullpen has been outstanding thus far, as closer Jhoan Duran and setup men Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar are all out to strong starts. It’s been far shakier after that quartet, with righty Emilio Pagan and lefty Jovani Moran both sporting early ERAs that begin with a seven. Twins starters rank second in the Majors in innings pitched so far — a remarkable change of course from the 2022 season — so they haven’t had to lean too heavily on the arms in their middle relief corps. Still, the front office and manager Rocco Baldelli would surely prefer a deeper supply of reliable arms, and at least based on his early output in St. Paul, Stewart could potentially give them another hard-throwing, bat-missing arm to help stabilize the group. Stewart is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to stick on the Twins’ big league roster or else be passed through waivers before he can return to Triple-A.