Tampa Bay has indeed shed some notable salary this winter, but it’s come in the form of trades and non-tenders. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs and his $10.5MM salary in each of the next two seasons went to the A’s in exchange for flamethrowing righty Joe Boyle, a pair of minor leaguers, and the Athletics’ Competitive Balance selection in the upcoming 2025 draft. Jose Siri (projected $2.3MM salary) was traded to the Mets in exchange for reliever Eric Orze. Nearly $10MM of additional projected salary was shed when the team non-tendered outfielder Dylan Carlson and lefties Colin Poche, Tyler Alexander and Richard Lovelady.

That collection of cost-cutting maneuvers trimmed $22-23MM from next year’s books. The only salary of note the Rays have added in place of those departures is the $8.5MM guaranteed to catcher Danny Jansen, who signed with Tampa Bay in mid-December. RosterResource currently projects the Rays for a $76MM payroll and about $104MM of luxury obligations — down from last year’s respective marks of $89MM and $115MM.

One of the motivations behind freeing up payroll space with trades of veterans would be to afford more at-bats to young players with little left to prove in Triple-A (e.g. Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead) while also creating flexibility to bring in other free agents of note. Circumstances well beyond the Rays’ control have hobbled any such efforts, however. The damage wrought on Tropicana Field by Hurricane Milton both left the Rays facing even more financial uncertainty than usual and also made it harder to lure free agents. The Rays will play their 2025 home games at a minor league facility — Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field, the Class-A home of the Yankees — which is going to reduce interest for plenty of players on the open market.

The Rays scored the second-fewest runs in MLB last year, with their collective 604 mark leading only the White Sox. Tampa Bay ranked 27th in the majors in batting average (.230), 24th in on-base percentage (.302), 29th in slugging percentage (.366) and 28th in home runs (147). Viewed through that lens, subtracting one or both of Diaz (.281/.341/.414, 120 wRC+) and Lowe (.244/.311/.473, 123 wRC+) would feel counterproductive — at least in a vacuum.

However, the Rays habitually trade quality players as their salaries rise and their club control dwindles. Their willingness to engage in such frequent roster churn and their ability to successfully identify quality long-term contributors in the return for such trades has become a hallmark of the organization’s success and led to near-perennial contention in a stacked AL East — despite bottom-of-the-barrel payroll numbers. Diaz is earning $10MM this coming season and has a $12MM club option (no buyout) in 2026. Lowe will be paid $10.5MM this year and has an $11.5MM club option in 2026 ($500K buyout). Both are free agents in the 2026-27 offseason.

The dwindling club control on both players will make them prime trade candidates this summer if things don’t go well for the Rays or if Tampa Bay feels their production can be replaced by turning their respective positions over to younger options. The Rays aren’t the type of club to be shy about dealing solid contributors from the roster even in the midst of contending seasons.

With regard to the 2025 roster, however, the hope will ostensibly be for inexperienced players like Aranda and third baseman Junior Caminero to make strides at the plate, while other young players like Josh Lowe and Christopher Morel hopefully rebound at the dish. Both had strong showings in 2023 before wilting in 2024. Adding Jansen should be an upgrade to a catching corps that produced disastrous results at the plate in 2024 — even if the longtime Blue Jays backstop can’t recover from his own 2024 struggles with the bat. Jansen hit just .206/.308/.348 in 328 plate appearances last year, but even that would be an upgrade over the woeful .194/.272/.291 output from Tampa Bay backstops in 2024. And, if Jansen can rediscover the .237/.317/.487 form he displayed from 2021-23, it’d be a massive boon for the Rays.

Time will tell just how the Rays’ offense recovers — or fails to recover — from last year’s doldrums. Trades can never be expressly ruled out for a club like the Rays, but for the time being, it seems they’ll hang onto the veteran bats they have and reassess their trade candidacy this summer. Others on the roster (e.g. Pete Fairbanks, Zack Littell) have also come up in trade rumblings this winter, but there’s been some recent cold water thrown on that pair being available as well.

Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM team option for Lowe’s services in 2025, rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free agency. The Rays might be notoriously close-fisted, but still, there was little doubt they’d exercise the option. A net $9.5MM is a bargain for a player like Lowe, even if he sits out a third of the season with injuries once again. That being said, a $10.5MM salary puts Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the highest paycheck on the club next year. To put it another way, it’s approximately 12% of the team’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s more than fair to wonder if the Rays would rather spread that money across multiple roster spots rather than give it all to one injury-prone player. In other words, it’s fair to wonder if Lowe will be wearing a new uniform by Opening Day next March.

Tampa Bay has a long track of trading veteran players once their salaries start to increase, even when the team is still planning to contend. As the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst finish since 2017, and coming off a season in which they sold big at the trade deadline, it seems even more believable that they would consider trading Lowe. Furthermore, the Rays have multiple internal options who could replace Lowe in the lineup (even if they can’t necessarily replace his production). One of Junior Caminero or José Caballero could potentially slide over to second base, while Christopher Morel could slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Walls could replace Caballero at shortstop. Former top prospect Curtis Mead is another infielder to keep in mind.

Then again, the fact that the Rays didn’t trade Lowe at last year’s deadline could be an indication that they’d like to hold onto him for 2025. After all, they might be cheap, but they also love a good value play. If the Rays shop Lowe around and come to the conclusion that he is severely undervalued around the league, they might prefer to hold onto him.

Back in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, “I don’t think the industry and even our own fans understand the impact [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he might be hesitant to part with his All-Star second baseman. Neander recently expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most valuable” as a second baseman but that the team could continue to give him some time at first base and DH next season to have his powerful bat in the lineup as often as possible.

It’s also worth mentioning that Lowe has another team option for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which means Tampa Bay could keep him around for the start of next season and still have the flexibility to trade him at a later date. What’s more, the Rays have numerous other trade candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the only player they can flip if they’re facing pressure to cut payroll in light of the damage to Tropicana Field or the team’s current lack of a broadcast deal.

First baseman Yandy Díaz and closer Pete Fairbanks are two of the top 10 players on MLBTR’s list of the top 35 trade candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will be making $10MM next year, and he has a $12MM team option for the following season. His contract also includes a $1MM trade assignment bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is set to collect $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2026. One more name to keep in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the same star power as Díaz or even Fairbanks, but he has proven himself to be a capable mid-rotation starter over the last year and a half. He made just $1.85MM this past season, but he is projected to earn close to a $3MM raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Another factor to consider is the market for second baseman this offseason, both in terms of free agents and trade candidates. Only two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One could easily imagine why teams would prefer Lowe over either of them, especially on such a team-friendly contract. However, things could get more complicated if any teams are seriously pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a primary second baseman as recently as 2023, while both Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to switch positions.

As for the trade market, second basemen who could be on the move include Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s top trade candidates list), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). However, none of those players seem particularly likely to be dealt, and they all fill different niches than Lowe. Funnily enough, all four bat left-handed, but Lowe is the only one who offers proven, middle-of-the-order power against both left- and right-handed pitching.

So, do you think the Rays will hold onto Lowe this winter? Or will they have a new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say in the poll below!

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Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

There wasn’t much suspense with this decision. Lowe has hit .245/.330/.482 in his career for a 126 wRC+. That includes a .244/.311/.473 line in 2024 for a 123 wRC+.

He has mostly played second base in his career but has also spent some time at first base and in the outfield corners. He’s not considered especially strong at any of those spots but the versatility is still useful. He has missed plenty of time due to injuries in his career, only once getting into 110 games in a season, but his production has been strong whenever he’s been out there.

Back in March of 2019, when Lowe had just 43 MLB games on his ledger, he and the Rays agreed to a six-year, $24MM contract extension. The Rays are undoubtedly happy with their return on that investment, given Lowe’s performance.

They have triggered the club option to keep Lowe around for 2025 and his contract has another club option for 2026. He can be retained for that season at a rate of $11.5MM with a $500K buyout.

The question now is if the Rays will hold him or trade him. The franchise often trades players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, which applies to Lowe.

According to RosterResource, the projected 2025 payroll is fairly similar to what they paid in 2024. A few non-tenders of their arbitration-eligible players could give them some breathing space but they are also facing the uncertainty of their stadium situation. With Tropicana Field badly damaged by Hurricane Milton, it’s possible that the club has to spend the upcoming season or seasons as nomads. That could have financial implications in terms of ticket sales, refunds, repairs and so on.

Even if that situation is largely resolved by insurance or other means, the Rays normally keep payroll down by trading players in this situation for younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Lowe’s name pops up in trade rumors this winter.

As per the terms of the contract extension Refsnyder signed in June 2023, the Sox hold a $2MM club option ($150K) on his services for 2025.  This option looks like a lock to be exercised if Refsnyder wishes to keep playing, as he has an excellent .298/.384/.472 slash line over 251 plate appearances in part-time duty for the Red Sox this season.  Still, Refsnyder is eager to spend more time with his family, and is perhaps keen to start working towards his longer-term goal of working in a front office.

Other items from around the AL East…

• Bue Jays manager John Schneider gave MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters an update on Bo Bichette, noting that the shortstop has started to increase baseball activities while working out at the Jays’ spring training facility in Dunedin.  A timeline isn’t yet in place this early in Bichette’s recovery from a right calf strain, as the club will monitor his progress in the coming days or weeks before deciding on a possible rehab assignment.   Bichette suffered the calf strain on July 19 in Toronto’s 5-4 loss to the Tigers, continuing an all-around disastrous season that has seen Bichette bat only .223/.276/.321 over 330 plate appearances.  The former All-Star’s struggles are one of several reasons why the Blue Jays are out of the playoff race, and if Bichette isn’t showing progress in relatively short order, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Jays just shut him down for the remainder of the season.
• 2024 is the last guaranteed season of the six-year, $24MM extension Brandon Lowe signed with the Rays prior to Opening Day 2019, but Tampa still has a pair of club options ($10.5MM with a $1MM buyout for 2025, $11.5MM for 2026 with a $500K buyout) covering Lowe’s immediate future.  “Whether they pick up the option or they don’t, I feel like I’m putting myself in a good position to still be on a team next year,” Lowe told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, but Lowe noted that playing with the Rays “is all I know.  I like it here.  My friends are here.  We have a house here.  It’s comfortable.  I don’t know anything else.  I know this.”  Given how the Rays dealt a number of higher-priced veterans at the deadline, Topkin figures that Lowe’s continued presence on the roster means that the team will exercise the 2025 option and keep Lowe in Tampa Bay for an eighth season.  Lowe is more than doing his part at the plate to sway the Rays’ mind, as he is hitting .248/.330/.488 with 14 homers over 282 PA.
• Danny Coulombe is “on track” in his rehab process and is aiming to return in late September, the Orioles left-hander told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.  Coulombe is on the 60-day IL after undergoing surgery in June to remove bone spurs from his left elbow.  While he is still a few weeks away from getting onto a mound, Coulombe is up to throwing from 90 feet in games of catch.  The Orioles’ bullpen has struggled badly in August, leaving Baltimore in even greater need for whatever the ace setup man can provide whenever he is able to return to action.
• The Yankees activated catcher Jose Trevino from the 10-day injured list on Friday, and Carlos Narvaez was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Yesterday’s game marked Trevino’s first action since a left quad strain forced him out of the Yankees’ 4-1 win over the Orioles on July 12.  Trevino figures to resume his catching platoon with Austin Wells, though Wells’ hot bat over the last month might have earned him a larger share of the playing time.

While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.

With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.

As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.

All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.

There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts. Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.

Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.

Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.

Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.

Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.

While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basemen at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.

The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in the Austin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.

Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.

Eflin has turned in solid results in 10 turns through the rotation. The right-hander is averaging just under six innings per start and has worked to a 4.12 earned run average. While his 17.9% strikeout rate is on track to be his lowest since 2017, he has compensated by essentially never handing out free passes. Eflin has only walked four batters all season, a 1.6% rate that is the lowest among all pitchers with 50+ innings.

The 30-year-old has been one of Tampa Bay’s more valuable pitchers this year, although his performance is a step down from last year’s work. Eflin had a brilliant first season in St. Petersburg, turning in 177 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball to earn a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting. He did lose a couple weeks early in the ’23 campaign to lower back tightness, though.

Eflin told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) that this year’s back issue feels similar to last season’s minor injury. Eflin suggested he could be back in around two weeks, while manager Kevin Cash indicated it was likely to be a 2-4 week absence. Tampa Bay has off days on Thursday and next Monday, so they could function with a four-man starting staff of Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Tyler Alexander into next week.

Lowe returns after a nearly six-week absence due to an oblique strain. The second baseman is in the cleanup spot against Tanner Houck tonight. Since Lowe landed on the IL, the Rays have rotated Curtis Mead, Amed Rosario and Richie Palacios through the keystone. Mead struggled enough that he has since been optioned to Triple-A. Palacios and Rosario have each hit well in their first seasons in Tampa Bay. They’re each capable of playing multiple positions and should still see fairly regular playing time around the diamond.

In other injury news, the Rays sent Jeffrey Springs to the Florida Complex League on a rehab assignment. The left-hander threw one inning this afternoon in his first game action since he underwent Tommy John surgery last April. Pitchers are typically allotted 30 days on a rehab stint, but returnees from Tommy John are usually allowed more than a month to build back into game shape. Springs could be ready for MLB action by the second half of June.

Lowe made it into just eight games this season before being sidelined by an oblique injury but has been one of the club’s most reliable hitters since he made his debut back in 2018, as evidenced by the career .245/.334/.484 slash line he carried into the 2024 campaign. That includes two monster seasons in 2020 and 2021 that saw him earn downballot MVP consideration, but he’s remained a valuable hitter in recent years even as he’s not regained that elite peak offensive form; in 2023, the then-28-year-old slashed a solid .231/.328/.443 with 21 homers.

The Rays are surely hoping that Lowe can provide the club with a spark offensively, as the AL’s best offense from 2023 has scuffled a bit in 2024. They’ve posted a collective wRC+ of just 101 this year, down 17 points from last year and good for just 14th in the majors to this point in the year. Those relative struggles have been thanks primarily to down seasons from key contributors like Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena to this point in the season. Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario have filled in admirably for Lowe in his absence, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays look to work both players into the lineup on a semi-regular basis even upon Lowe’s return.

Also nearing a return from the shelf is right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who has been on the shelf since May 8 after being struck by in the leg by a comebacker. Pepiot’s return will be greatly appreciated for the Rays, as he’s pitched to a strong 3.68 ERA and 3.64 FIP through seven starts with the Rays in his first season as a regular in the rotation. Prior to being swapped to the Rays this past winter in the Tyler Glasnow deal, Pepiot had shown flashes of his impressive ability with the Dodgers, for whom he pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings split between the 2022 and ’23 seasons.

In Pepiot’s absence, the Rays have relied on Taj Bradley and Tyler Alexander to fill out the club’s rotation alongside Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Zack Littell. Bradley has looked excellent in his two starts since being activated, with a 2.45 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 11 frames. Alexander, on the other hand, has generally struggled while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen with the Rays but carried a perfect game into the eighth innings of his most recent start against the Blue Jays, ultimately throwing 7 1/3 innings of three-run ball on three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts.

Not all the injury news has been positive for the Rays, however. Topkin relays that Cash indicated to reporters today that the Rays still have no clear timeline for return regarding left-hander Colin Poche, who has been on the shelf for nearly a month now due to mid-back tightness. The 30-year-old southpaw was one of Tampa’s most important relievers last year as he pitched to a sterling 2.23 ERA with a 3.34 ERA and a 24.8% strikeout rate in 60 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, he struggled badly this season in ten appearances prior to being placed on the injured list, as he allowed seven runs in 9 1/3 frames on 12 hits and three walks while striking out six. Poche’s uncertain return date, according to Cash, contributed to the club’s decision to acquire left-hander Richard Lovelady from the Cubs earlier today in exchange for southpaw Jeff Belge.

While Poche appears to be nowhere near a return, the same isn’t true of veteran right-hander Chris Devenski, who has been on the shelf since late April due to a bout of knee tendinitis. Topkin notes that the veteran right-hander has begun a rehab assignment at Triple-A, though he notes that according to Cash the righty will need “at least” one more rehab appearance before the club considers bringing him back up to the big leagues. Cash also indicated that the Rays have not yet decided whether they’ll have Devenski take a longer rehab assignment in order to stretch him out for multi-inning relief or simply promote him to the majors as soon as he’s ready to contribute in shorter bursts. Devenski pitched to largely average results between the Angels and Rays last year, with a 4.46 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work despite a solid 3.96 FIP.

April 10: The Rays will place second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The veteran infielder was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right oblique after undergoing an MRI this morning.

Lowe missed a couple games last week after experiencing some discomfort in his left side. The current issue is seemingly unrelated, as he suffered the oblique strain on his right side while taking warm-up swings yesterday. Lowe last played on April 7, so the Rays will be able to backdate the IL stint to Monday.

That’s probably immaterial, as oblique strains typically lead to multi-week absences. A Grade 1 strain is the lowest severity, but any oblique issue is going to affect a hitter’s ability to rotate through his swing. While this is the first time that Lowe has been sidelined by an oblique injury, he has spent a fair bit of time on the IL in recent years.

Back inflammation and a season-ending knee fracture shelved him in 2023. A stress reaction in his back had led to an extended absence in the previous season. He has also had IL stints for a triceps contusion and a bone bruise in his lower leg within the past five years. Lowe has only reached 450 MLB plate appearances in a season once, connecting on 39 homers over 149 games back in 2021.

Around the injuries, the Maryland product has been one of the game’s top offensive second basemen. Lowe has turned in above-average rate production in every year of his career by measure of wRC+. He hit 21 homers with a .231/.328/.443 slash line over 436 trips to the dish last season. Lowe was out to a slow start this year, collecting just five hits in his first 27 at-bats.

Lowe will join Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, Josh Lowe and Jonny DeLuca as position players on the injured list. Curtis Mead has gotten the nod at the keystone in each of the last three games. He’ll probably assume the bulk of the playing time in Lowe’s absence. Amed Rosario has plenty of middle infield experience and is on hand as an option off the bench, although the Rays have deployed him mostly in right field in the early going.

11:17AM: As reported yesterday, Brandon Lowe will miss 4-6 weeks of action after suffering a right kneecap fracture.  The Rays officially placed Lowe on the 10-day injured list today, and selected the contract of outfielder Raimel Tapia from Triple-A Durham.  To create a 40-man roster spot for Tapia, Tampa Bay called up Calvin Faucher from Triple-A and placed him on the 60-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis.

Assuming he gets into a game with the Rays, it will be Tapia’s third different MLB team of the 2023 season, and his fifth club in less than two years after playing with the Rockies in 2021 and the Blue Jays in 2022.  Tapia signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox during the winter and ended up appearing in 39 games for Boston before being released in June.  He signed a big league deal with the Brewers a couple of days later, and played in 20 games before Milwaukee designated Tapia for assignment and subsequently released him.

Overall, Tapia has hit .230/.308/.338 over 158 combined plate appearances with the Red Sox and Brewers this season, as well as a .269/.371/.414 slash line in 124 PA with Durham since the Rays signed the outfielder to a minors contract in early August.

Tapia has a decent .273 career batting average in 2016 career PA in the majors, albeit without much on-base or power numbers, and not much pop to show all of the contact he makes.  Known as an excellent baserunner, Tapia’s speed has helped him beat out some grounders to the tune of a .328 career BABIP, but is more known for being a fourth-outfielder type who can play all three positions in a pinch (though primarily a corner outfielder) and provide bench depth as a pinch-runner.

The left-handed hitting Tapia’s numbers aren’t much better against right-handed pitching than they are against southpaws, but he’ll at least provide Tampa Bay with some balance within their mostly right-handed hitting outfield group.  Randy Arozarena also left Friday’s game due to quad tightness, so with Tapia’s selection, the Rays might be looking to bolster their outfield ranks if Arozarena needs a couple of days off or possibly even an IL stint.

Faucher hasn’t pitched since tossing two-thirds of an inning for Durham on August 13.  His move to the 60-day IL is basically just procedural to open up a 40-man spot, and he’ll at least get some MLB service time and a minimum salary for being shifted to the big league version of the injured list.  The righty also missed a chunk of time earlier this season due to right elbow inflammation, and has a 7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings for the Rays in 2023.

It’s another tough development for Lowe, who is unfortunately no stranger to late-season injuries. He missed most of the second half in 2019 with a bone bruise in his right leg, although he was able to return for the playoffs. Lowe missed last year’s postseason with a recurring back issue. There’s now a good chance he’ll miss the playoffs again, with the estimated return timetable only leaving the possibility of a comeback late in a deep run.

Lowe is one of the game’s better offensive second basemen. The left-handed hitter has connected on 21 homers in 436 plate appearances, ranking eighth at the position. He’s walking at a strong 11.5% clip and owns a .231/.328/.443 line overall. Despite a fairly high strikeout rate and middling batting average, he’s an above-average hitter. That’s particularly true against right-handed pitching, whom Lowe has hit at a .241/.335/.478 clip.

Tampa Bay has been living with next to nothing offensively out of the shortstop position lately. The group led by Taylor Walls is hitting .188/.282/.304 this month. They’ll now also have to patch things together at the keystone. Isaac Paredes moved over there tonight against the Blue Jays with Curtis Mead stepping in at third base. The Rays have rookie Osleivis Basabe in a utility role, while they just promoted top prospect Junior Caminero (who didn’t get into the game tonight).

Lowe’s injury occurred yesterday, but the Rays had a pair of departures from tonight’s contest. Randy Arozarena is day-to-day after leaving with right quad tightness. They could be in line for another extended absence from reliever Jason Adam, who came out in the ninth inning after feeling side tightness.

Adam just returned after missing three weeks with a left oblique strain. He told Topkin (Twitter link) that while this discomfort is in a different area of the oblique, it’s more painful than the prior strain. He’s likely headed back to the 15-day injured list. The 32-year-old righty has had another strong season out of Cash’s bullpen, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate in 54 frames.

Tampa Bay is two games back of the Orioles in the AL East, pending the result of Baltimore’s game in Cleveland. The Rays have seven games left on the regular season schedule. They’ll host Toronto for two more, play a two-game set in Boston on Tuesday and Wednesday, then wrap up the year with three against the Jays at the Rogers Centre.

It’ll clearly be more than a minimal stay for the power-hitting infielder. Lowe will need some time to ramp up once he can again begin working out, and the absence is significant enough he’ll probably require a minor league rehab assignment. Given that timeline, it doesn’t seem out of the question Lowe is out of MLB action through the All-Star Break. It’s the second straight season in which his back has given him problems. Lowe’s 2022 campaign was cut short by a lower back issue in mid-September.

The Rays figure to rotate a number of players through the keystone in his absence. Vidal Bruján started the first two games there after Lowe’s IL placement. The Rays kicked Taylor Walls over from third base tonight, penciling Isaac Paredes in at the hot corner.

A few other health updates from around the game:

• The Twins have been without Chris Paddack since he underwent a second career Tommy John procedure last May. The right-hander has maintained a goal of returning for the stretch run this season. That still seems to be on track, as Paddack began throwing off a mound last week (relayed by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). He’s shooting for a big league return in September, though it’s possible that’ll have to be in relief to accelerate his build-up. Acquired from the Padres on the eve of Opening Day last year, Paddack has made just five starts as a Twin. Nevertheless, the organization guaranteed him $12.25MM to buy out his first year of would-be free agency (2025) over the offseason.
• Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson landed on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain over the weekend. Manager Dave Roberts initially pegged his expected absence around a month, though it seems that was a bit optimistic. Roberts told reporters this evening that Thompson is likely to miss beyond 30 days (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). It’s not expected to be a season-ending injury but there wasn’t any further clarity on the timeline. It seems possible he’ll wind up on the 60-day injured list if L.A. needs a 40-man roster spot in the coming weeks. The Dodgers called up rookie Jonny DeLuca to take Thompson’s spot on the MLB roster.
• The Angels have been without starter José Suarez for a month on account of a strain in his throwing shoulder. It doesn’t seem the southpaw is particularly close to a return, as Sam Blum of the Athletic wrote yesterday that Suarez had yet to begin throwing. There’s not a clear timetable for when he might start working off a mound, although Blum adds that he has been working out at the team’s Arizona complex. A reliable #4 starter for the past few years, Suarez has had a nightmarish 2023. He was tagged for a 9.62 ERA over six appearances before he landed on the shelf.

Lowe, 28, sprinted out of the gates with an impressive power display early in the season, slashing .257/.368/.581 with seven homers through his first 87 trips to the plate. His OPS has plummeted by more than 250 points since that time, however, as he’s fallen into a dismal slump. Over his past 114 plate appearances, Lowe is slashing just .157/.237/.255 with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate.

The Rays held Lowe out of yesterday’s lineup with what was initially termed discomfort in his lower leg, but Lowe told reporters not long before the game that he’d also been experiencing discomfort in his back following a recent slide into third base. That issue, it seems, has proved problematic enough that he’ll be shelved for at least the next nine days. The team has not yet provided any sort of timetable for his return to the roster.

Brujan, 25, was long rated as  one of the game’s top overall prospects but has yet to find any success in the big leagues. He’s seen time in each of the past three seasons but managed only a .161/.215/.233 output in 209 plate appearances. That includes a .250/.286/.250 slash in 21 trips to the plate this season. He’s been far better in Triple-A, where he sports a .268/.355/.435 batting line, 22 home runs and 79 steals in 198 games (883 plate appearances).

With Lowe sidelined, the ever-versatile Rays will have plenty of options to step into the lineup in his place. Each of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes and the newly recalled Brujan is plenty familiar with Lowe’s customary second base. The switch-hitting Walls and the righty-swinging Paredes are both much better against left-handed pitching than against righties. Brujan, also a switch-hitter, has typically been better from the left side of the plate, and that’s especially true in 2023: .286/.380/.484 versus righties, .167/.297/.241 versus lefties. For today, with the Rays taking on Red Sox righty Brayan Bello, it’ll be Brujan drawing the start and batting eighth.

“I don’t think it’s in us to just stand pat and assume things will get better,” Neander said at that time. Cut to April and the club apparently decided that the standing pat thing wasn’t such a bad idea after all. They made no moves this offseason to add to their lineup. In fact, they subtracted from it, as players like Kevin Kiermaier, Ji Man Choi and Miles Mastrobuoni are now on different teams. Aside from signing Zach Eflin, all the club’s offseason additions were minor leaguers, with most of those being pitchers.

The MLB offseason was generally considered to be on the robust side, with many contracts going well beyond predictions, especially for the top free agents. It’s possible that the low-spending Rays simply got priced out of whatever plans they initially drew up for the winter. Whatever the reasons, the club didn’t bring in anyone from outside the organization and is relying on internal options, at least for now. The season is still young but the early results are encouraging, as the club is 14-2 and hitting a collective .276/.364/.544 against righties for a 155 wRC+ so far. Let’s dig in on the players individually.

Brandon Lowe

In the first few years of his career, Lowe had established himself as one of the key members of the Tampa lineup. He hit 14 home runs in the shortened 2020 season and added 39 more the next year. Over those two seasons combined, he hit .253/.346/.532 for a wRC+ of 141.

Unfortunately, he was hobbled in the health department last year. He made trips to the injured list due to lower back issues and a triceps contusion. He only got into 65 games and produced a diminished .221/.308/.383 slash line when on the field for a 104 wRC+. Early indications suggest that Lowe has put those injuries behind him, as he is off to a great start. He has five home runs in his first 14 games and is currently batting .310/.442/.690 for a 215 wRC+.

Wander Franco

Franco’s arc is fairly similar to Lowe’s. His track record in the majors isn’t as long, but he was considered the top prospect in the sport for quite a while and then performed well in 2021 while only 20 years old. But the switch-hitter was also snakebitten in 2022, making trips to the IL due to a quad strain and wrist discomfort. He only got into 83 games and hit .277/.328/.417 for a wRC+ of 116, still above average but not elite. But like Lowe, he seems to be healthy and in a good groove here this year. He already has four long balls and is batting .318/.366/.621 for a wRC+ of 176.

Taylor Walls

The switch-hitting Walls has always hit well in the minors but hasn’t been able to translate it to the majors. Coming into this year, his career batting line was .182/.281/.288. He’s off to a strong start here in 2023 though, batting .281/.378/.469 through 37 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 144.

Francisco Mejía

Mejía isn’t off to the same blazing start as some of his teammates. The switch-hitting catcher is batting just .167/.276/.208 through his first 29 plate appearances. He and Christian Bethancourt have been splitting the catching duties fairly evenly so far, but the right-handed-hitting Bethancourt is performing much better at the plate and could increase his share as the season goes along.

Luke Raley

Acquired from the Dodgers in a trade just prior to the 2022 season, Raley got into 22 games with the Rays last year but hit just .197/.306/.279. He’s still striking out at a 31% clip in 2023 but has hit three homers in just 13 games, leading to a .222/.310/.528 slash line and 131 wRC+.

Josh Lowe

Lowe has long been one of the club’s highly-touted prospects, having been selected 13th overall in 2016 and performing well in the minors. He got a two-game cameo in the big leagues in 2021 but struggled in his first meaningful taste of the majors. He hit .221/.284/.343 last year and struck out in 33.3% of his trips to the plate. He’s been far superior this season, cutting that strikeout rate in half to 16.7% and hitting three home runs in just 12 games. His current batting line of .359/.405/.718 amounts to a wRC+ 213.

Vidal Bruján

Long one of the club’s most significant prospects, Bruján has struggled badly against major league pitching. He had a batting line of .150/.207/.231 over 62 games coming into this year. The club was granted a fourth option for him, allowing them to send him to the minors on Opening Day, but he was called up when Jose Siri landed on the injured list. Bruján is hitting .333/.333/.333 through 15 plate appearances but has six strikeouts (a 40% rate) in that tiny sample.

Jonathan Aranda

Aranda got to make his MLB debut last year but didn’t crack the Opening Day roster here in 2023. He’s off to a nice start in Triple-A, hitting a couple of home runs for the Durham Bulls and drawing walks in a massive 24% of his 50 plate appearances. His current batting line is .250/.440/.444 for a 136 wRC+.

Kyle Manzardo

Manzardo isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the club’s top prospects and is playing in Triple-A, meaning a debut at some point this year is on the table. He has three home runs and a 10.4% walk rate for the Bulls so far this year, leading to a .262/.333/.548 batting line and 115 wRC+ through 12 games.

Greg Jones

Jones is on the 40-man roster but he’s in Double-A and therefore not likely to be at the front of the line for a call-up. He’s also not forcing the issue right now, hitting .167/.189/.417 through eight games for the Montgomery Biscuits.

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All of these numbers come with small sample warnings, as the Rays have only played 16 games thus far. Also, the strength of their competition has been fairly weak, as their 13-game winning streak to start the season came against the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and Red Sox. When they finally faced a team that’s generally considered to be a contender by squaring off against the Blue Jays this past weekend, they went 1-2.

The fact that they demolished the pitching of rebuilding clubs like the Nats and A’s doesn’t mean that we can declare the situation resolved, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Franco and Brandon Lowe aren’t likely to sustain these torrid streaks, but it’s a good sign that they are healthy and are making the 2022 struggles seem like temporary injury setbacks. Walls can’t suddenly be declared a superstar, but he’s considered a strong defender and any offense he can provide is a nice bonus. We also can’t say that Raley and Josh Lowe have cemented themselves as successful big league hitters, but they’ve shown tremendous promise in the minors and could be getting acclimated to big league pitching. Lowe’s much-improved strikeout rate is especially positive.

As the season goes along and the Rays face stronger competition, it’s entirely possible that this picture looks less glowing. However, the games all count the same and they already have 14 wins in the bank, which makes it highly likely they stay in contention up until the trade deadline. If they need to upgrade on any of the hitters in this group, they have a very strong farm system and should be able to bolster their left-handed options by making a deal or two. But if even one or two of these early developments start to seem more real, their urgency to do so will be lessened.

Coming into this offseason, Dipoto stuck to his guns but said that his “great preference” would be to land a shortstop to play second base. This year features another strong class of free agent shortstops, with Correa on the market again, this time alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. However, they may be getting priced out of the bidding, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the expected prices of those shortstops are making it likelier that the M’s pursue a left-handed hitting second baseman to platoon with Dylan Moore.

The Mariners already had such a player in 2022, acquiring Adam Frazier from the Padres going into the year. He only had one year of club control remaining at the time and is now a free agent. The Mariners could always bring him back, but his bat took a step back this year. After hitting .305/.368/.411 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 113, he hit just .238/.301/.311 for a wRC+ of 81. Given that dip in production, the club might look for other options.

The other free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Robinson Cano missed all of 2021 due to a PED suspension, had a worse season than Frazier and is now 40 years old. Switch-hitters Cesar Hernandez and Jonathan Villar also both had worse years than Frazier in 2022. Perhaps the best fit would be Jace Peterson, who has hit .238/.337/.373 over the past three seasons for a wRC+ of 98. His defensive grades are strong overall though that’s mostly due to excellent work at third base, with his numbers more middling elsewhere.

Given Dipoto’s penchant for the trade market has earned him the nickname “Trader Jerry,” perhaps that is the most likely route the club would take to address the keystone. Rosenthal speculates Kolten Wong as a fit, which is a match that has already been reported in recent weeks. However, Rosenthal also suggests they could target cheaper and more controllable players, since Wong will make $10MM in 2023 and then become a free agent.

Rosenthal suggests the Rays would make for a good trading partner, since they have Jonathan Aranda, Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Brandon Lowe in their cluttered infield mix. All four of those players would come with risk in different ways. Lowe dealt with various injuries in 2022 and only got into 65 games on the season, with diminished production when he was on the field. After hitting .247/.340/.523 for a wRC+ of 137 last year, he slipped to .221/.308/.383 this year, still above average but a much lower 104 wRC+. He’ll make $5.25MM next year and then $8.75MM in 2024, with two club options after that at $10.5MM and $11.5MM. The Rays are usually not afraid to make deals of their experienced players but trading Lowe now would be selling low, no pun intended.

As for Walls, Aranda and Brujan, all three carry the risk of not being established major leaguers. Walls has the most experience of the bunch, with 196 MLB games under his belt. However, he’s seemed overmatched in that time so far, hitting just .182/.281/.288 with defensive metrics split on how to view his work in the field. Brujan has 62 MLB games on his track record but his batting line is even worse, coming in at .150/.207/.231. Aranda’s played just 32 games so far and hit .192/.276/.321. All three players have stronger numbers in the minors but haven’t been able to bring them up to the bigs just yet.

If the Mariners don’t find anything to their liking in those mentioned names, they could perhaps turn their attentions to other speculative trade targets such as Cavan Biggio, Nolan Gorman, Tony Kemp or Nick Madrigal.

Glasnow’s return gives the Rays a high-octane arm to add to the rotation mix both down the stretch and, more pivotally, in the postseason. Glasnow, who tossed seven minor league rehab innings prior to today’s activation, will be capped at two or three in his first start back from last summer’s Tommy John surgery. He could feasibly build up to a larger, less-restricted workload if Tampa Bay can put together a deep playoff run.

A healthy Glasnow unequivocally improves the Rays’ odds of doing just that, as he’d broken out following a trade from the Pirates, finally developing into the front-of-the-rotation talent he was billed as during his top prospect days. The 6’8″ righty started 37 games for Tampa Bay from 2019-21, pitching to a 2.80 ERA with a massive 35.9% strikeout rate and solid 7.8% walk rate over the life of 206 innings. The only pitchers in baseball with a higher strikeout rate during that three-year stretch were Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom, and only Shane Bieber had a higher percentage of combined called and swinging strikes than Glasnow’s 32.9%.

The Rays and Glasnow came to terms on a somewhat surprising two-year, $30.35MM extension earlier this summer — one that’s reflective both of Glasnow’s injury/missed time and his Cy Young-caliber upside. Glasnow will $5.35MM in 2023, which would’ve been his final arbitration year, representing a modest increase over this season’s $5.1MM salary. He’ll then be guaranteed a $25MM salary in 2024 — what would’ve otherwise been his first free-agent season. It’s the most the perennially cost-conscious Rays have ever paid for a single season of a player, so there’s surely a bit of trepidation on their end of things. At the same time, it’s rare for any player with Glasnow’s service time –and particularly one of Glasnow’s caliber — to sign away just one free-agent year, even on the heels of an injury-wrecked season. There’s some compromise from both parties, and Glasnow said after the contract that he’s “exactly where I want to be.”

The returning Glasnow will now join Shane McClanahan, Corey Kluber, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in a formidable rotation. Each of McClanahan, Rasmussen and Springs will be options alongside Glasnow through at least the 2024 season, and the Rays will have several impressive young hurlers to vie for the fifth starting spot next season (barring a free-agent or trade addition). Luis Patino, Yonny Chirinos, Josh Fleming and prospect Taj Bradley will all be in the mix, though their most touted arm, righty Shane Baz, will likely miss all of the 2023 season following his recent Tommy John surgery.