It seems that’s not entirely accurate. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the guaranteed portions of Melvin’s and Zaidi’s contracts actually run through the end of next season. According to Shea, both contracts have the equivalent of team options covering 2026.

That isn’t necessarily a big deal. If the Giants are satisfied with their leadership group, they can keep Zaidi and Melvin in place for at least another two years as anticipated. Yet it also means that ownership is only committed to next year’s salaries if they decide to make a change before ’26.

There’s no indication that the Giants are considering a shakeup. Just last week, ownership signed off on a six-year, $151MM extension for third baseman Matt Chapman. That’s the largest contract of Zaidi’s tenure. Chapman has longstanding ties to both Zaidi and Melvin dating back to their time with the A’s. That seems to be a vote for organizational stability on ownership’s part.

That said, there could be more pressure on the front office a year from now. This will be the fifth time in Zaidi’s six seasons that the Giants missed the playoffs. The exception was one of the greatest seasons in franchise history, a stunning 107-win campaign to snag the NL West from the Dodgers in 2021. The Giants have been an average team in each of the three seasons since then, never pulling much above or below .500.

A middle-of-the-pack finish is a particularly disappointing outcome this year. The Giants adeptly waited out the free agent market and brought in Blake Snell, Jorge Soler and Chapman late in the offseason. They signed KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM contract — the largest deal of the Zaidi era until Chapman’s extension. The Giants blew past the base luxury tax threshold for the first time since 2017. Hanging with the Dodgers was always going to be a tough ask, but the Giants at least envisioned themselves as Wild Card contenders.

They’ve instead dropped to fourth place in the NL West and are eight games back of a playoff spot. Losing Lee to a season-ending shoulder surgery in May didn’t do them any favors, particularly defensively. A healthy Lee alone would not have bridged an eight-game gap in the standings, though. San Francisco’s hitters rank 18th in on-base percentage and 19th in slugging.

They entered the season with questionable rotation depth behind Snell, Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison. Free agent pickup Jordan Hicks didn’t hold his stuff over his first full season as a starter. Between Hicks tailing off and the reliance on a few young pitchers (e.g. Keaton Winn, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black), the Giants have gotten the second-fewest innings from their rotation. That has put a lot of stress on a solid but unexceptional bullpen.

Melvin recently addressed the disappointing year in a wide-ranging interview with Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic. The veteran manager and childhood Giants fan called it “probably the hardest year” of his career and discussed some decisions (pinch-hitting matchups, sticking with Camilo Doval as closer until last month) with which he has wrestled. Giants’ fans, in particular, are encouraged to read Melvin’s comments in full.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• Various clubs are calling the Padres about Juan Soto (1:40)
• Giants commit to Bob Melvin and Farhan Zaidi through 2026 (7:45)
• Red Sox hire Craig Breslow (14:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
• Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
• Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

• Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin – listen here
• Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
• The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Rangers are in the World Series for the first time since 2011 (0:55)
• Looking back on the journey of Adolis García (5:00)
• What’s next for the Astros after dropping the ALCS? (7:40)
• Bob Melvin reportedly moving from the Padres to the Giants (10:15)
• Is Tyler Glasnow a trade candidate or not? (14:45)
• The Offseason Outlook of the Dodgers (21:45)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• Who should the Mariners target in free agency? (27:45)
• Should the Mariners look to replace Eugenio Suárez or Ty France? (29:35)
• Where will Cody Bellinger sign and for how much? (30:35)

Check out our past episodes!

• Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
• The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
• Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​

Melvin was manager of the Padres until now, on a deal that ran through 2024. It wasn’t known if his reported move to the Giants would affect his contract, but today’s news provides some clarity on that front. The news about Zaidi is also particularly noteworthy since his current deal was also set to expire after 2024. Though he hasn’t put pen to paper yet, it seems he will secure himself a bit of runway as well.

The Giants have been somewhat inconsistent since Zaidi was hired at the end of the 2018 season. The club finished below .500 in the two seasons prior to him joining the club and would post two more losing seasons in 2019-2020. That was followed by an incredible jump to 107 victories in 2021, though that club was eliminated by the Dodgers in the NLDS. They then dropped to 81-81 in 2022 and were expected to be ambitious in the 2022-2023 offseason as they looked to get back into contention.

They did indeed set their sights high, coming close to landing Aaron Judge before he wound up back with the Yankees. The Giants then pivoted to another free agent superstar in Carlos Correa, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal, but the Giants balked at Correa’s medicals and walked away before making that deal official. By then, most of the top free agents had already signed elsewhere and the Giants eventually spread their money around to several mid-tier guys, including Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson.

Though the club hovered around the postseason picture for parts of 2023, they ultimately slid down the standings and finished at 79-83. It was expected that 2024 was going to be a sort of make-or-break year for the staff, with both Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler believed to be on contracts that would expire after that season. As recently as mid-September, Johnson voiced his support for the Kapler/Zaidi duo to return in 2024. But Kapler was fired just a couple of weeks later and has now been replaced by Melvin. It seems that Johnson and the club want to give this new duo some continuity going forward and will lock them in for three years.

Despite the inconsistent results on the field, it’s understandable why the club felt it would need to present a united front. Signing a marquee free agent figures to be a big priority again this offseason and it should help with the pitch if they have things in order. Many free agents will go to whichever team offers the most money, but if they receive somewhat comparable offers from multiple clubs, other factors could act as dealbreakers. Signing onto a club with a lame duck president could have perhaps created some uncertainty in the minds of prospective signees, but today’s announcement should take that off the table.

Even if the Giants are successful in landing a big name free agent or two this winter, the path back to contention will still have challenges. The Dodgers continue to be a powerhouse and should have plenty of money to spend this offseason. The Diamondbacks are headed to the World Series right now and are loaded with young talent to keep them in good shape going forward. The Padres are a bit of a mystery at the moment but still have plenty of star power. It will be an interesting period for the Giants but the ticking clock isn’t quite as loud as it appeared to be coming into today.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

October 24: The Giants “are poised to announce” that Bob Melvin has been hired as the team’s new manager, The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports.  It isn’t known when the official announcement could be made, though the league prefers that teams save major news for between postseason rounds, so the Giants may wait until for the two days between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series on Friday.

Between the late-season firing of Gabe Kapler as manager and the reports of discord between Melvin and Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, there has been plenty of speculation over the last month that Melvin might find himself on the move from San Diego to San Francisco.  Padres chairman Peter Seidler’s stated preference was that both Melvin and Preller remain with the organization in 2024, and Preller even said in a post-season wrapup press conference that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward.”

However, Melvin remained on the Giants’ radar, and a parting between Melvin and the Padres seemed inevitable once San Diego granted Melvin permission to interview with the Giants this past weekend.  As Baggarly reports, that interview took place on Monday, and involved several members of San Francisco’s ownership group and baseball operations staff, not to mention franchise icon Buster Posey.  It seems as though the interview was enough to confirm Melvin’s status as the favorite for the job, and the veteran skipper will now get a new job as an early birthday present, as he turns 62 on Saturday.

Melvin’s resume includes three Manager of the Year Awards, eight postseason appearances, and a 1517-1425 record over 20 seasons with the Padres, Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Mariners.  The hiring in San Francisco is also something of a homecoming for the Palo Alto native, and a continuation of Melvin’s linkage of the Bay Area and his baseball career.  Melvin played with the Giants for three of his 10 seasons as a big league catcher, and had an 11-year stint managing the A’s from 2011-21.

As it happens, this is the second time in almost exactly two years that Melvin take a new managerial job while leaving another job with one year remaining on his contract.  The A’s had contractual control over Melvin for the 2022 season but chose to let him walk to the Padres without compensation, with reports stating that Melvin’s $4MM salary was seen as onerous for an Oakland club that was about to embark on a major teardown.  It is also fair to assume that the Athletics front office was open to letting Melvin make a graceful exit to a better situation, rather than keep him as manager for at least one season of what looks like it will be a lengthy rebuild process.

This past weekend’s reports from Baggarly and Dennis Lin suggest that Melvin’s current salary (also $4MM for 2024, the last year of his Padres contract) might have been a factor in San Diego’s decision, as the organization is planning to reduce expenditures in a number of different areas.  With a mounting debt that could be in conflict with MLB regulations and some broadcasting uncertainty due to the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings, the Padres look to be cutting back on the high-spending ways, including a reported reduction in player payroll to around $200MM for next season.

Finances aside, the simpler answer is probably just that the Giants’ interest allowed for the Padres to part ways with Melvin in relatively smooth fashion, without the awkwardness of a firing.  Preller has already fired three different managers (Bud Black, Andy Green, Jayce Tingler) during his nine-plus years in charge of San Diego’s front office, and three other men (Dave Roberts, Pat Murphy, Rod Barajas) have also worked as interim managers.  Of course, whether it was a firing or a “parting of the ways,” the bottom line is that the Padres have had another manager come and go while Preller remains.

Lin and Ken Rosenthal examined how the Preller/Melvin relationship soured in a piece for The Athletic last month, and the criticisms of Preller’s management style also predated Melvin’s arrival in San Diego.  In fact, Melvin’s hiring was seen as a stabilizing element after the clubhouse turmoil that marked the end of Tingler’s managerial stint, yet it seems as though the ship was only steadied through the success of the 2022 season.  This year, the Padres underachieved despite their massive payroll, with a very poor record in one-run (9-23) and extra-inning (2-12) games undermining a team that, by all other statistical measurements, should’ve won a lot more than 82 games.

With even more pressure on Preller to get the Friars on track, the next managerial hire will be one of the most crucial decisions of his tenure.  Two internal candidates (Mike Shildt and bench coach Ryan Flaherty) have already emerged as leading contenders for the job, and it might be that the Padres wanted to start lining up some candidates before officially green-lighting Melvin’s interview with San Francisco.  San Diego will surely interview some other people out of due diligence, though it wouldn’t be a shock if the job does end up going to either first-time manager Flaherty, or former Cardinals skipper Shildt.

As for Melvin, he’ll now take over another team in need of a culture change.  After winning 107 games in 2021, the Giants are 159-163 over the last two seasons, and Kapler’s hands-off managerial style was starting to seem more like a detriment than a plus.  Several Giants players, either on or off the record, felt the club was somewhat directionless, with Logan Webb outright stating he felt “we have to make some big changes in here to create that winning culture.”

These criticisms extended not only to Kapler but to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose contract is believed to run only through the end of the 2024 season.  As such, Zaidi is also certainly feeling the pressure to build a contending roster, and the Giants are expected to be aggressive shoppers this winter after missing out on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa as a big-ticket addition last offseason.  Faced with what might be a make-or-break scenario, it probably isn’t surprising that Zaidi has turned to a familiar face as manager — Zaidi previously worked as the Athletics’ assistant GM during Melvin’s tenure in Oakland.

The terms of Melvin’s contract aren’t yet known, though Baggarly suggests it could be a relatively short-term deal, should Melvin view the San Francisco job “as a fitting place to round out” his career.  There has been some buzz about possible coaching changes coming to the Giants’ staff, though Baggarly suggests that the majority of San Francisco’s 13-person staff could be retained.  That perhaps puts a different spin on the Giants’ managerial search, as the focus on internal candidates and others with past Giants ties (i.e. Stephen Vogt) might have been a way of gauging how any of these candidates might have been willing to mesh with Melvin, if he was Zaidi’s preferred choice all along.

Melvin is under contract with the Padres for next season. As a result, the Friars could require compensation to approve him taking the job elsewhere. Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes that the Padres may not demand more than a marginal return to allow the veteran skipper to depart, however.

That’s a reflection of the apparently strained relationship between Melvin and baseball operations leader A.J. Preller. Multiple late-season reports indicated there was a strong divide between the two. San Diego ownership clearly doesn’t believe the situation had become untenable. After a meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the organization announced a few weeks ago that Melvin would return. However, the Giants’ interest could afford San Diego a fresh start while clearing Melvin’s $4MM salary. Had he been fired, the Padres would’ve remained on the hook for the money.

If Melvin heads to San Francisco, the Padres have a few internal candidates to take his place. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt seem the likeliest options. In a piece at The Athletic, Britt Ghiroli and Lin write that the 37-year-old Flaherty is highly regarded within the organization and seemingly has a strong relationship with Preller. As a result, they suggest the former Orioles infielder appears the top internal option.

By contrast, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune casts Shildt as the in-house potential favorite. The 55-year-old has prior MLB managerial experience, having led the Cardinals from midway through 2018 until he was dismissed after the ’21 season due to what St. Louis called “philosophical differences” with the front office. (Flaherty’s only managerial experience consisted of a two-week interim stint in 2022 while Melvin was recovering from surgery.) Shildt has spent the last two years working with Preller’s front office and has been open about his hope for another managerial position.

Both The Athletic and the Union-Tribune suggest San Diego could also consider external opportunities. It’s too soon to say with certainty that Melvin is even departing, much less the position will come down to Flaherty or Shildt. Given the Giants’ stated goal of finalizing their hire before the start of free agency, there figures to be a resolution within the relatively near future.

Reports surfaced two days ago that the Giants were temporarily halting their search for a new manager while waiting to hear back from rival teams for their go-ahead to interview employees.  Melvin was chief among this new group of candidates, and it could very well be that the Giants were specifically waiting on the Padres on whether or not Melvin would be allowed to speak with the division rival.  Melvin is still under contract with San Diego through the end of the 2024 season, though rumors have swirled for months about Melvin’s future with the club and his relationship with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

By this point, it would seem like an upset if Melvin doesn’t end up as San Francisco’s next manager.  While the official interview has yet to take place, Melvin and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are quite familiar with each other — Melvin was the Athletics’ manager when Zaidi began his baseball career in Oakland’s front office over a decade ago.  Lin and Baggarly note that it could create an even more awkward situation between Melvin and Preller if Melvin didn’t end up getting the Giants job, so perhaps regardless of what happens with the San Francisco interview, Melvin might not be back as the Padres’ skipper in 2024.

Back in September, Lin and Ken Rosenthal delved into the internal issues that have plagued the Padres organization even before their disappointing 2023 season.  Chief among these problems is the allegedly frosty relationship between Melvin and Preller, though both men have downplayed the idea of any discord.  After the Padres finished with only an 82-80 record this season, there was plenty of speculation that either Melvin or both Melvin and Preller could be fired, yet club chairman Peter Seidler gave a full vote of confidence to his management team at season’s end.  Preller also stated soon afterward that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” seemingly putting the matter to rest.

However, many pundits felt a parting was coming sooner rather than the later, especially when the Giants’ managerial position became open after Gabe Kapler was fired.  The past ties between Melvin and Zaidi made the veteran skipper a logical candidate from day one, assuming the hurdle of the Padres’ clearance for an interview could be jumped.

It is possible the Padres and Giants might work out a trade to officially send Melvin to the Bay Area, or the Padres might simply see this as an opportunity for a fresh start.  Melvin leaving for another job rather than being fired, as Baggarly and Lin note, would save the Padres the $4MM owed to the manager in salary for the 2024 season.  This tracks with the Padres’ overall plan to cut costs next season, ranging from both internal financial matters like a manager’s salary to player payroll.

If Melvin was to be hired by the Giants, San Diego would suddenly be in need of a new manager, though Lin and Baggarly cite bench coach Ryan Flaherty and coach Mike Shildt as possible candidates to take over the job.  Best known for his days as an Orioles utilityman, Flaherty has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, and was promoted to bench coach prior to the 2023 campaign.  Prior to hiring Melvin, Preller’s previous two managerial hires were Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, who (like Flaherty) had never managed at the MLB level.

On the other hand, Shildt is a former skipper, managing the Cardinals from 2018-2021 and leading the club to postseason appearances in the last three of those seasons.  Shildt was rather surprisingly fired after the 2021 season due to what Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described as “philosophical differences,” and the Padres then interviewed Shildt for the managerial vacancy that was eventually filled by Melvin.  San Diego ended up hiring Shildt anyway that winter for a player development position, and he moved into a coaching role this past season.

Chief among those potential candidates mentioned is Padres manager Bob Melvin. Melvin, 61, is under contract with the Padres for the 2024 season, meaning that San Diego would have to grant their division rival permission to interview their manager. As unlikely as such a scenario may seem on the surface, it’s well known around baseball that Melvin and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have a contentious relationship and have been at odds throughout much of Melvin’s tenure with the organization, a wrinkle that could make the Padres more amenable to allow Melvin to interview for the role.

While the club indicated that both Preller and Melvin would return to the Padres in their current roles for the 2024 season earlier this month, Baggarly relays that Melvin is “expected” to be open to the opportunity to interview with the Giants, if granted permission to do so by the Padres. Melvin, of course, has significant ties to the Bay Area after managing the Oakland A’s for eleven seasons, from 2011 to 2021. During his tenure with the A’s, Melvin won the AL Manager of the Year award in both 2012 and 2018, while finishing in the top four on three other occasions with the club. The A’s ultimately had a combined record of 853-764 with Melvin at the helm, an impressive feat considering the club’s consistently low payroll numbers.

Prior to his tenure in Oakland, Melvin served as manager of the Mariners from 2003-04 and managed the Diamondbacks for five seasons, from 2005-09. Melvin won NL Manager of the Year in 2007 with Arizona, making him one of just eight managers in the history of the award to win in both leagues. For his managerial career, Melvin’s record is 1517-1425, good for a winning percentage of .516.

Melvin is far from the only candidate the Giants are looking into as they search for their next manager, of course. Baggarly notes that former Giants hitting coach Donnie Ecker, who is currently the offensive coordinator for the Rangers, is another name the Giants are currently waiting on with the Rangers still in the midst of a postseason push, while Mariners bullpen and quality control coach Stephen Vogt is already known to have interviewed for the role. San Francisco has also interviewed several internal candidates, including interim manager Kai Correa and assistant coach Alyssa Nakken, who became the first known woman to interview for a big league managerial job.

Considering that the Padres vastly underperformed this past season, it’s no surprise Preller and Melvin were on the hot seat. San Diego reached the NLCS in 2022, yet after a busy offseason in which the team spent over $400MM in free agency, they barely finished above .500 this year, falling two games shy of a postseason berth. The president of baseball ops didn’t deny how frustrating the 2023 season was, but he didn’t blame his manager for everything that went wrong. This comes two days after Padres chairman Peter Seidler expressed his complete support for the leaders running his team.

Said Preller, “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” leaving no room for doubt that Melvin’s job is secure. However, the executive wouldn’t broach the subject of an extension – the manager is only under contract for one more year – instead emphasizing that both he and Melvin are focused on improving the current roster and getting the Padres back to the postseason in 2024. “Next year is going to be a different year,” he explained. “A different team, different players.”

While there won’t be a different manager or a different president of baseball operations, Preller said he has thought about possibly hiring a general manager. He has technically held both titles since he was promoted ahead of the 2021 season, but it has become quite common for teams to have a separate president of baseball ops and GM. Preller wouldn’t commit to making a hire, but he said he’d be open to adding a new executive “that brings different experiences” to the front office.

On the topic of reinforcements, Preller also addressed San Diego’s farm system, expressing confidence in the cohort of young players approaching the upper levels of the minors. He believes the team has several prospects who could make an impact sooner or later, especially as added depth. His remarks weren’t particularly revealing, but they were encouraging, given the sheer number of prospects the Padres have given up in recent trades, along with the draft picks they’ve lost by signing top free agents.

The executive wasn’t quite as confident about Juan Soto’s long-term future with the Padres. While he said his first move will be to discuss an extension with the three-time All-Star, he didn’t deny the possibility of trading the lefty slugger instead. “We’ve never been a group that says no to anything,” Preller explained. “I wouldn’t read into that. That’s just kind of the way we operate.” His comments suggest that no trade is imminent, but by not shutting down the question, he left the potentiality on the table.

“We entered 2023 with expectations that we would build on last year’s NLCS appearance and contend for a World Series Championship. We fell short of that goal,” the statement reads, “The Padres organization will learn from this season and emerge in 2024 with the pieces in place to compete for San Diego’s first World Series title. Our current leadership team has my full support, and I have asked them to perform a thorough assessment of our organization, beginning today. We will make the changes necessary to play championship-caliber baseball for our extraordinary fans in 2024.”

The statement largely tracks with previous reporting, which indicated not only Seidler’s preference to retain both Melvin and Preller in 2024, but also that the club would be undergoing an internal review. Importantly, despite the seeming vote of confidence for the duo, the statement does not guarantee their return for the 2024 season, instead noting that the club plans to “make the changes necessary” to return to the postseason next year. After all, reports of philosophical differences that lead to the personal relationship between the Padres’ manager and GM fraying are well documented. Melvin is under contract through the end of the 2024 season, while Preller is signed through the end of the 2026 season.

Whoever is at the helm of the Padres next season, they’ll have a difficult task set before them as they look to improve the club’s roster following an 82-80 season. Shutdown closer Josh Hader and NL Cy Young award candidate Blake Snell are both poised to depart the club for free agency this offseason, and the club is reportedly looking to trim payroll down to $200MM for next season. While RosterResource indicates the club’s payroll in 2024 stands at just over $128MM at this point, that figure doesn’t include arbitration-level contracts for players like Juan Soto, Scott Barlow, and Trent Grisham, among others.

Those arbitration-level contracts could approach $50MM or more this offseason, with Soto alone expected to get a significant raise on his $23MM salary in 2023. That leaves the club with minimal space to take on additional financial commitments despite significant holes to fill in the rotation and bullpen, not to mention the need to deepen a position player group that suffered from an extremely thin bench throughout the season.

Melvin is under contract for the 2024 season, so the Padres would have to fire the skipper to allow him to change jobs.  While there have been plenty of rumblings that Melvin might be replaced, the possibility that he might immediately join a division rival could complicate the situation for the Padres, and they might explore the possibility of some kind of trade if the Giants did have interest in hiring the veteran manager.  A meeting of Padres officials is set to take place Monday, so some kind of resolution to Melvin’s status in San Diego could possibly be coming pretty quickly.

More from around the NL West…

• In other Giants news, the club placed Mitch Haniger on the 10-day injured list yesterday (retroactive to September 26) due to a lower back strain.  The move will officially end Haniger’s season, a disappointing campaign that saw the outfielder hit .209/.266/.365 over 229 plate appearances.  The limited playing time is certainly a factor, as Haniger played in only 61 games due to a right forearm fracture that cost him roughly 2.5 months of the season, as well as an oblique injury in Spring Training that delayed his 2023 debut until April 24.  Signed to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal last winter, Haniger can only hope for much better health heading into his second year in San Francisco.
• Joe Musgrove hasn’t pitched since July 28 due to a bout of shoulder inflammation, as the Padres opted to shut Musgrove down rather than risk any further injury, as San Diego’s hopes of reaching the playoffs looked dim.  Musgrove provided Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune with a health update, saying that his shoulder is feeling good and that he is making “a very easy, slow progression” towards his normal offseason throwing routine.  In a pinch, Musgrove said he could have been able to pitch if the Friars had make the playoffs and reached the second round.  However, the right-hander will now look to rebound after an injury-riddled 2023, as Musgrove was limited to 98 innings due to his shoulder issue and a broken toe suffered during Spring Training.
• X-rays were negative on Miguel Rojas’ left hand after the Dodgers infielder was hit by a Sean Hjelle pitch on Friday.  Rojas was removed from the game as a precaution, and manager Dave Roberts (speaking with Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters) feels Rojas will be okay, though he’ll undergo more testing today.  The Dodgers’ first-round bye means that they won’t begin their postseason run until October 7, giving Rojas plenty of time to heal up.

The news comes on the heels of reports of considerable change coming for the Padres this offseason and a deep disconnect between Melvin and Preller. Acee affirms the “fractured” relationship between the two, and notes that despite Seidler’s preference to retain both men firing one or both of them is nonetheless on the table if the two are unable to improve their working relationship. Acee notes that a “significant meeting” between Seidler, Melvin, Preller, and additional advisors will take place shortly after the conclusion of the regular season. The impending meeting, which will focus on an “internal review” the club has reportedly been conducting, figures to impact the club’s decision on whether or not to retain either or both men for the 2024 campaign.

Acee elaborates on the frayed relationship between Preller and Melvin, noting that a disconnect has been evident for more than a year but that things have worsened throughout the difficult 2023 campaign to the point where sources have described the relationship as “irreconcilable” to Acee, though he makes clear that those sources do not include Preller, Melvin, or “those who would have a voice in their fate.”

In terms of the feud’s direct impact on the season, Acee notes that the club’s players indicate that the relationship between Melvin and Preller shouldn’t matter to the team on the field, though he also points to situations surrounding two players that sources indicate were impacted by philosophical differences between the club’s two most front-facing officials. Per Acee, Hader’s concerns about being overused ahead of free agency this winter and veteran slugger Matt Carpenter’s usage were both situations exacerbated by the rift between Preller and Melvin.

Carpenter, in particular, has recorded just 52 plate appearances since the start of July despite having remained on the roster throughout the entire season until September 15, when he was placed on the injured list with inflammation in his right elbow. Acee’s sources indicate that the veteran remained on the roster at Preller’s insistence, despite a brutal .180/.310/.327 slash line with a 30.8% strikeout rate in 185 trips to the plate through the end of June.

Acee paints a picture of a divided organization, indicating that despite Preller’s importance in the club’s turnaround in recent years, his relentless work ethic causes issues with his interpersonal relationships, even beyond Melvin. Meanwhile, Acee notes that front office officials have expressed frustration with Melvin’s unwillingness to accept their input, even as Preller and the front office have largely given him control of day-to-day lineup decisions.

One thing that could impact the potential for either Melvin or Preller to depart is the financial aspect. With the Padres already expected to cut payroll this offseason, it’s hardly a surprise that ownership would prefer not to part ways with either of the organization’s highly-paid officials. Per Acee, Melvin is set to make $4MM in the final year of his contract next year, while Preller’s current contract pays him somewhere between $7MM and $10MM across the next three seasons.

However, the organization doesn’t seem to be writing off 2023 to just misfortune, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres are planning a different strategy for next season.  This includes “player commitments of around $200MM,” as Acee writes that the payroll cut is “in part because they are out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio.”

Less spending isn’t necessarily a huge surprise, as the Friars have a lot of money coming off the books anyway in terms of pending free agents and several contractual options and may or may not be exercised.  However, what might count as eye-opening is the fact that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller might not necessarily be back, as “no decisions have been made regarding who will be running or helping to run the Padres’ baseball operations department beyond this season.”

Preller has been running the Padres’ front office since August 2014, a tenure that has consisted of an initial spending splurge for immediate success that didn’t pan out, followed by a rebuilding period, and then San Diego’s current state of sky-high spending.  The results have been mixed at best, as the Friars have posted winning records in only two of the last eight seasons and also might not reach the .500 mark this year.  The Padres’ two winning seasons under Preller (2020 and 2022) resulted in trips to the playoffs, with San Diego winning a series in the expanded 2020 bracket before falling to the Cardinals in the NLDS.  Last year’s playoff run saw the Padres eliminate both the Mets and the arch-rival Dodgers before eventually falling to the Phillies in the NLCS — San Diego’s first trip to baseball’s final four since 1998.

The inconsistency on the field could well be related to what’s happening behind the scenes.  Last week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin published a fascinating look at the dysfunctional elements of the Padres organization, with plenty of criticism directed towards Preller.  As Rosenthal and Lin wrote, Preller’s “default setting of simply trying to outwork the competition, however, has not always sat well with managers, players, coaches and other team officials….Many also criticize him for poor communication and a lack of feel.”

This style of management (or micromanagement, in his critics’ view) might have resulted in the revolving door of managers and coaches during Preller’s tenure, and there is currently “a major disconnect” between Prelller and current Padres manager Bob Melvin.  This isn’t the only time that internal discord has been a public problem in San Diego, as the club’s collapse in the second half of the 2021 was largely attributed to a rift between the players and then-manager Jayce Tingler.

With such issues surfacing for a second time in three seasons, it could be that ownership has decided that a larger culture change if required, even if that means firing Preller with three years still remaining on his current contract.  Despite the Padres’ struggles this year, there had been more rumblings over Melvin being fired than Preller, especially after team chairman Peter Seidler gave Preller a full endorsement back in July.

However, Acee notes that “the path the team travels in many matters is currently be being charted by more people than usual, including members of Seidler Equity Partners,” as Seidler himself “remains involved but not nearly as intimately, as he recovers from a medical issue.”  It could be that the other members of the partnership group are less enamored with Preller than Seidler is, or it could be that Seidler (who is the largest single equity holder in the team) has decided himself that a change is necessary since the Padres simply never got things turned around this year.

The Padres’ payroll has exploded since Seidler took control of the club in 2020, and the chairman has been pretty forthright about his stance that increased spending will translate into consistent winning.  As such, a winning team and the subsequent higher national profile will lead to higher revenues — attendance, merchandise, TV ratings, etc. — that will help offset said spending.

How sustainable this tactic is over the long term has been a looming question in San Diego for the last two years, and the debt service issue Acee referenced could indicate that the Padres perhaps saw 2022-23 as their true all-in years before having to inevitably scale things back to some extent in 2024.  Falling so drastically in an “all in” year could be why Preller is now facing more scrutiny from upper management, and Acee also writes that missing out on the postseason cost the franchise at least an extra $10MM in playoff revenue.

Whomever is running the front office will have plenty of decisions to make, especially in regards to how to address this upcoming payroll cut.  Roster Resource projects that the Padres have just under $128.5MM on the books for 2024, though that doesn’t include the arbitration-eligible players — most notably Juan Soto, who made $23MM this year and will earn another hefty raise in his final arb year before free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.  Whether or not to trade Soto this winter, keep him for 2024 and let him walk in free agency, or try and retain Soto by adding another major long-term extension to the Padres’ ledger are the primary choices facing the team in regards to the star outfielder.

Trent Grisham and Tim Hill are two other arb-eligible players with far lower price tags than Soto, though Acee wonders if either could be non-tendered as the Friars look to cut costs.  Acee also notes that “it is virtually certain that” pending free agents Josh Hader and Blake Snell won’t be retained, and the Padres face other questions in regards to retaining either Nick Martinez and/or Michael Wacha on two-year, $32MM extensions.  Seth Lugo is likely also headed for the open market rather than exercise his $7.5MM player option for 2024.

Despite all of these portents of change, there doesn’t appear to be any shift in San Diego’s overall direction, or their desire to quickly return to contention in 2024.  None of the core group of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove, and others appear to be in danger of being traded, as their larger contracts should all be able to comfortably fit within the framework of a $200MM payroll.

However, while San Diego has plenty of roster needs to address, the payroll reduction could mean that the Padres won’t be nearly as aggressive in pursuing top-level free agents as they have in recent years.  Trading Soto would be one obvious way of unloading salary while still bringing back some (less expensive) win-now help for 2024, and the Padres might still be busy on the trade front rather than looking to splurge on the open market.  With all that awaits the Padres in what might be another newsworthy offseason, Preller’s fate might need to be decided relatively soon, so that a possible new PBO/GM can get moving quickly on winter plans.

It’s a very surprising dropoff for a club that reached the NLCS last season, and has been spending to franchise-record levels to continue that success.  The Padres exceeded the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons and are easily on pace for a third, with a $250MM payroll and a projected $275.8MM tax number (as per Roster Resource).  Getting to the NLCS only made the Padres hungry for more, but a busy offseason that included signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Manny Machado and Yu Darvish has thus far yielded mediocre results.

The struggles of the Padres’ first three months haven’t dampened the overall view of team chairman Peter Seidler, who first of all hasn’t written off the Friars’ chances for 2023.  “We have half the season to play.  I mean, much, much stranger things have happened….So there’s a lot of catching up for us to do. I’m on the train that says we’re gonna catch up,” Seidler told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Just because the Padres’ plan for 2023 “hasn’t worked yet….it doesn’t make me lose sleep at night or lack confidence in what we’re doing.”

“I know we’re going to be good.  We’re gonna have every chance to be in the mix for the World Series every single year.  And so that gives me some kind of serious long-term comfort.  We’re not going to reverse course.  We’re always gonna adjust….All my focus now is on this year, because I’m as solid as I can be on the year after and two years after and three and the next decade.”

While Seidler naturally isn’t pleased with how the Padres have performed to date, he pointed to the trade deadline as an opportunity for improvement, saying “You know we’re always open for business.”  While naturally much can still change between now and the August 1 deadline, Seidler’s comment would suggest that the Padres are looking to be buyers, rather than sellers.  Of course, the team might take a middle ground and pursue both routes, perhaps trading some shorter-term assets for players who can help the Padres either in the rest of 2023 or in 2024 and beyond.

As to who could be making these calls on deadline day, Seidler expressed his total support in club CEO Erik Greupner and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

“I’m not afraid to make changes.  I never have been.  But I really value stability,” Seidler said.  “And when I know the person as well and the skillset as well as I know A.J. and Erik, they’re not going anywhere.  Period….I believe in stability.  It is something that is undervalued, generally speaking, in organizations and maybe particularly in sports franchises.  But I’m not for mediocre stability.  I’m for excellence.  And to me, A.J. is excellence.”

“That’s the very interesting thing about professional sports.  You have a couple of bad months and fans or the media say, ’You’ve got to fire this guy.’  It’s crazy to me.  Absolutely crazy.”

Preller is one of the longer-tenured front office bosses in baseball, running the Padres’ baseball ops department since August 2014.  It hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride, as Preller’s tenure has included only two winning records in his eight full seasons, though he did oversee a substantial rebuild (albeit in the wake of an ill-fated attempt to load up on big-name talent early in his stint as general manager).  Even as recently as 2021, the Padres seemed to be stumbling both on and off the field, but the hiring of Bob Melvin as manager seemed to calm things, and San Diego went 89-73 in 2022 before making their postseason run.  Preller received a contract extension following the Padres’ playoff berth in 2020, and his current deal runs through the 2026 campaign.

Seidler endorsed Melvin as well, though as Acee noted, Seidler (like Preller in recent comments) didn’t give a full guarantee about Melvin’s future as the Friars’ manager.  Melvin’s deal with the team is up after the 2024 season, and if the Padres’ struggles were continue, a managerial change might be one logical route of shaking things up, if a larger-scale front office change isn’t happening.

That said, Seidler seemed to disagree with the premise of a true guarantee of Melvin’s job security, asking “What’s the point in saying that?  Bob is one of the great managers in our game.  I’ll leave it there.  As well as being a great guy and as trusted a human being as you’ll ever find.  But we’re talking about a job here.”

Ryan Christenson has been given the title of associate manager. The 48-year-old joined Melvin in making the jump from the A’s to the Padres last offseason. Christenson had been Melvin’s bench coach in Oakland from 2018-21 and took on that same role for his first season in San Diego. He now earns a bump in title to associate manager, though his position as Melvin’s top lieutenant seems unchanged.

Filling the role of bench coach is Ryan Flaherty, who’s going into year four on the San Diego staff. He also gets the title of offensive coordinator, essentially taking on the hitting coach duties vacated when Michael Brdar was poached by the Tigers at the start of the offseason. San Diego will go without anyone assuming the traditional “hitting coach” title.

The 36-year-old Flaherty has spent the past two seasons as a quality control coach. He drew interest from the Mets in their bench coach search last offseason, but the Friars denied New York’s interview request. One year later, the former Orioles infielder gets both that title and the lead hitting responsibilities in San Diego.

He’ll be joined on staff by assistant hitting coaches Scott Coolbaugh and Oscar Bernard. The 56-year-old Coolbaugh joins the Friars after two years as the lead hitting instructor with the Tigers. He’d also previously served as hitting coach in Baltimore and Texas and an assistant role with the White Sox. He brings plenty of coaching experience to help Flaherty in his first crack as offensive coordinator.

Bernard, meanwhile, gets promoted to the MLB staff after seven years as San Diego’s minor league hitting coordinator. The 39-year-old spent some time as a player and instructor in the Cubs’ minor league system before joining the Friars in 2016. It’s the first big league staff job for the Dominican Republic native. Also joining the group is catching coach Brian Esposito. The 43-year-old spent last season managing the Friars’ Low-A affiliate in Fort Wayne.

The rest are holdovers from last season. Ruben Niebla is back for a second year as pitching coach, pairing with bullpen coach Ben Fritz. Matt Williams and David Macias will coach the bases and defense — Williams the infield, Macias the outfield — with Peter Summerville and Herberto Andrade as coaching assistants. Former big league managers Bryan Price and Mike Shildt will reassume the advisory roles they manned in 2022.