Overlooked in this free agent class, however, is a pair of solid mid-rotation lefties. Veterans Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have garnered little if any buzz in the rumor mill to this point, but at this late stage in the offseason they stand out among the remaining crop of starters as some of the more reliable options still available. Ranked #25 and #31 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, Heaney and Quintana figure to be among the best arms available for clubs looking to bolster their rotation that don’t have room in the budget for a player like Flaherty or Pivetta. Even Scherzer could land a higher annual salary.

Quintana and Heaney have a number of striking similarities. From 2019 to 2021, both players posted an ERA north of 5.00 in less than 300 innings of work as they struggled to stay healthy and effective. Both players then appeared to take a major step forward in 2022, however, and since then have proven to be a reliable mid-rotation option despite occasional injury issues persisting. In Heaney’s case, his 2021 breakout came as a member of the Dodgers. While he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings of work due to injuries that year, he was dominant when healthy enough to pitch with a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate.

That breakout led Heaney to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers in free agency and, though he hasn’t quite reached that level of elite production since then, he’s managed to stay healthy and provide solid results to Texas. In 307 1/3 innings for the Rangers over the past two years, the lefty has pitched to a roughly league average 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 23.2% during his time in Dallas, but even in spite of that, he’s shown positive signs for the future. That’s particularly true of the 2024 season, when he cut his walk rate from 9.4% to a career-best 5.9% while his barrel rate dipped from 10.2% down to just 8.3%. Those improvements in batted ball results and walk rate allowed Heaney to post a 3.95 SIERA last year, good for 32nd among starters with 160 innings of work last year and sandwiched between Seth Lugo and Sean Manaea on the leaderboard.

By contrast, Quintana continued to get above average results this year with a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) in 31 starts for the Mets but started to show troubling signs in terms of peripherals. Quintana struck out just 18.8% of opponents for the second year in a row in 2024, but saw his walk rate climb to 8.8% while his barrel rate crept up to 6.7%. All that left Quintana with a 4.57 SIERA that ranks just 53rd among qualified starters. Father Time is also on Heaney’s side, as he’s roughly two-and-a-half years younger than Quintana, who will celebrate his 36th birthday later this month. Of course, that aforementioned barrel rate is still better than Heaney’s figure from 2024 and his career-best 47.4% groundball rate suggests he may be able to continue limiting damage and outperforming his peripherals going forward.

It’s also worth noting that Quintana has the stronger overall track record than Heaney. Although he experienced a blip in productiveness from 2019 to 2021, he had seven above-average seasons under his belt prior to that and since then has posted an excellent 3.39 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP in 411 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s struck out just 19.4% of opponents in that time, that ERA is tied for 22nd among qualified starters since the start of the 2022 campaign, on par with the likes of Dylan Cease and George Kirby. While it seems unlikely that Quintana would be able to replicate that elite production going forward without improving on his strikeout and walk numbers, it’s possible his grounder-heavy profile could work quite well in front of a strong defense.

If your club was looking to add a veteran southpaw to its rotation, which would you prefer? Would you value Heaney’s relative youth and stronger peripherals in his platform campaign? Or would you overlook Quintana’s age and concerning peripherals in favor of his more consistent track record and knack for keeping the ball on the ground? Have your say in the poll below:

That risk of a grievance is due to the fact that A’s will collect 100% of their revenue-sharing dollars in 2025 for the first time under the current collective bargaining agreement. While the team received just 25% of their allotment in 2022, that figured increased to 50% in 2023 and 75% in 2024 before finally reaching 100% in 2025. The issue for the A’s stems from the fact that the CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll.

Drellich and Rosenthal go on to report that A’s could receive $70MM or more in revenue sharing after drawing the worst attendance figures in baseball last year, which would mean the club needs to reach a player payroll of $105MM or more for luxury tax purposes in 2025 in order to avoid risking a grievance. RosterResource currently projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $78.5MM for 2025, meaning they would need to add roughly $26.5MM in player payroll to avoid falling below that 150% figure. It’s worth noting that these numbers are inexact, as well, and if the A’s receive a larger revenue sharing check than currently expected they may wind up needing to float a luxury tax payroll of more than $105MM in order to avoid a grievance.

For a club that has struggled to lure in free agents this winter due to the fact that they’ll spend the next three seasons using a Triple-A stadium as their home ballpark, reaching that level of spending could be complicated. A separate report from Rosenthal suggests that the A’s have interest in adding another free agent starting pitcher alongside Severino, though he adds that such a signing would likely be a veteran pitcher from a lower tier of free agency. Rosenthal specifically name-checks Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Andrew Heaney as potential options the A’s could consider if any of them were willing to pitch in West Sacramento next season.

Of the three, Heaney was predicted to land the largest contract on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list with a two-year, $24MM pact. That $12MM AAV would bump the club’s luxury tax payroll up to $90.5MM, putting them just $15MM away from reaching their estimated $105MM target. The tough sell of pitching in West Sacramento and the projection-beating deals signed by other pitchers this winter could leave the A’s in a position where they’d need to offer more than that $12MM annual figure in order to land a veteran hurler, but they’d surely still need to find other ways to add salary in order to reach $105MM even if they signed a veteran starter to a deal that significantly outpaced projections.

Free agency isn’t the only avenue for adding talent (and payroll), of course. The trade market is one avenue for adding MLB talent that the club has been candid about exploring this winter. Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger and Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery are two high-priced players known to be available in the rumor mill who the club could swing deals for if they want to immediately put themselves in position to avoid a grievance in one fell swoop, but there’s a large swath of other players expected to be available this winter who could add to the club’s payroll in a less drastic fashion. Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Cardinals southpaw Steven Matz are among a handful of possible trade candidates who will make $10MM or more in 2025.

Another route the A’s could take to raise the luxury tax payroll that wouldn’t require convincing a free agent to sign or swinging a trade with another club would be signing a player already in the organization to an extension. Reporting over the weekend indicated that the Athletics have interest in negotiating an extension with breakout slugger Brent Rooker. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rooker to earn $5.1MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter, and any extension that would guarantee Rooker an AAV higher than that $5.1MM figure would increase the club’s luxury tax payroll. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted over the weekend, it’s possible that even if the A’s and Rooker aren’t interested in agreeing on a long-term deal that buys out some of Rooker’s free agent years, an extension that covers his arbitration years could offer certainty to both sides. Such an extension would come with an additional boon for the A’s in light of their current predicament by surely raising the AAV on Rooker’s 2025 contract, though no realistic extension could be expected to raise the club’s tax payroll by the $26.5MM needed to avoid risking a grievance by itself.

Buehler is the biggest name of that trio. Although he’s coming off a difficult, injury-plagued season, he was an ace-caliber pitcher when last healthy in 2021. Indeed, from 2018-21, he pitched to 2.82 ERA and 3.56 SIERA over 564 innings. His 14.4 FanGraphs WAR ranked 14th among all pitchers in that time. Still just 30 years old and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, he is widely considered one of the top bounce-back candidates on the free agent market. It helps his case that he looked excellent in the postseason. After a rough outing in the NLDS, he pitched 10 scoreless innings between the NLCS and the World Series.

Precisely because Buehler comes with more upside than Gibson or Heaney, he could be looking for a longer-term commitment. The MLBTR staff predicted a one-year, $15 million contract for Buehler at the beginning of the offseason but noted that a two-year deal with an opt-out was a possibility. Petzold also remarked Buehler could be seeking a two-year deal with an opt-out this winter, and he suggested that might be more than the Tigers are willing to give. Ideally, they’re looking to offer a one-year deal.

In that case, Detroit could pivot to Gibson or Heaney. Of the two, Gibson seems more likely to sign a one-year contract. Both pitchers appeared on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list: Heaney at no. 25 and Gibson at no. 41. Our staff predicted a two-year, $24 million deal for Heaney and a one-year $13 million deal for Gibson. The slightly higher AAV prediction for Gibson reflects his longer track record of success, but at 37 years old, he’s unlikely to command a multi-year deal. Heaney, on the other hand, is young enough (he’ll turn 34 next June) that he could feasibly land a two-year commitment, especially on a market that has been quite kind to mid-tier starting pitchers thus far. Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Matthew Boyd all signed for more guaranteed money than MLBTR predicted.

Gibson and Heaney are both coming off similar 2024 seasons. Gibson made 30 starts with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA, while Heaney made 32 appearances (31 starts) with a 4.28 ERA and 3.95 SIERA. Heaney’s underlying numbers were a little promising – he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate – but Gibson has been significantly more consistent and durable throughout his career. Ultimately, both are capable back-of-the-rotation starters but not much more. Either would raise Detroit’s floor, but neither would do much to lift the team’s ceiling.

If a pitcher like Gibson or Heaney is the only starter the Tigers add, they’ll need to hope that some of their younger arms step up to help ace Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation. That includes Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and potentially top prospect Jackson Jobe. More arms that could make up the rest of Detroit’s starting staff include Keider Montero, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda. In other words, this team isn’t short on back-end depth. What they could really use is a proven, postseason-caliber starter. However, such an acquisition seems far less likely. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, the Tigers have “some interest” in a reunion with Jack Flaherty, but the word “some” speaks volumes in that report.

Ultimately, despite their postseason appearance in 2024, it seems as if the Tigers aren’t planning to be particularly aggressive this winter. As Petzold points out, their interest in signing a starter to a one-year deal mirrors their strategy from the previous two offseasons, in which they signed Michael Lorenzen and Flaherty. There’s no doubt it paid off in both cases; Lorenzen and Flaherty both pitched well over a few months with Detroit before they were flipped for prospects at the trade deadline. However, the Tigers were still in the middle of a rebuild when they signed Lorenzen ahead of the 2023 season and Flaherty ahead of ’24. That’s no longer the case, so it’s odd to see they’re still looking for stopgaps rather than trying to sign a more impactful pitcher to a multi-year deal.

In the same vein, Petzold suggests the Tigers are interested in first baseman Christian Walker but says they might back off if “big-market teams” are also bidding on his services. Moreover, Petzold adds that they are unlikely to sign any free agents who rejected a qualifying offer. Walker is among that group. While the Tigers have been linked to Alex Bregman, who also received a qualifying offer, Petzold writes that they would probably only pursue him if he were still available entering spring training and his price tag plummeted. As is the case with Walker, the Tigers are interested but not interested enough to enter a bidding war. In other words, it seems as if they’d only be willing to sign a QO free agent at a significant discount.

That doesn’t mean the club is completely unwilling to explore higher-tier options, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported this afternoon that the club has at least “some interest” in a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty. The early movement on the free agent market has generally been focused on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation, ranging from lefty Blake Snell’s massive five-year deal with the Dodgers to smaller moves like the Angels’ signing of right-hander Kyle Hendricks on a one-year pact. Flaherty, who signed with the Tigers last winter and had a resurgent half-season with Detroit before being traded to L.A. over the summer, is the best pitcher remaining on the market who is unattached to draft pick compensation.

While pairing Flaherty with ace lefty Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation is surely a tantalizing idea to fans and would help fortify the Tigers after their surprise return to contention this fall, it’s also possible that they’ll simply look to sign “the next” Flaherty instead of pursuing a reunion; while Rosenthal suggests Flaherty figures to land a deal in the four-to-six year range, Stavenhagen notes that the club hopes to find a “high-upside” pitcher on the market who they believe they can help maximize as they did with Flaherty this past year rather than pay a premium for more established talent. Right-handers Walker Buehler and Michael Soroka as well as southpaw Andrew Heaney could be among the pitchers of that sort on Detroit’s radar this winter.

Stavenhagen goes as far as to note that Buehler could be the club’s “white whale” this winter, but adds that there’s questions about whether or not he’ll need to accept the sort of short-term deal the Tigers are looking to make this winter. That’s a valid concern, as Buehler has received plenty of interest from all corners of the league with the A’s, Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Mets among the teams with reported interest in the righty’s services. MLBTR ranked Buehler 37th on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month while predicting a one-year, $15MM pact for the righty. That’s surely a price tag the Tigers would be eager to have him at, but given the widespread interest he’s drawn to this point and the hot market for starting pitching that has seen multiple players exceed expectations it wouldn’t be a shock to see Buehler land a multi-year deal even after posting a subpar 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts for the Dodgers this year. If Buehler’s market does end up running that hot, it could be hard to justify targeting him rather than spending a bit more to secure a more reliable asset like Flaherty.

If Buehler proves to be out of Detroit’s price range this winter, Soroka and Heaney represent two opposite sides of the spectrum for free agent starters. Soroka, 27, turned in a dominant rookie season with the Braves back in 2019 en route to an All Star appearance, a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young award. Since then, however, he’s struggled to stay on the field with just 46 innings of work combined between the 2020-23 seasons at the big league level. He was shipped from the Braves to the White Sox last winter and managed 79 2/3 innings of work last year while swinging between the rotation and bullpen.

His results were significantly better as a reliever in Chicago but that hasn’t stopped most interested teams from eyeing him as a rotation option this winter. If Soroka can build on the 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate he posted after being bumped from the White Sox rotation back in May, he would be a strong addition to a Tigers pitching staff that has plenty of depth options but little certainty behind Skubal and Reese Olson. Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda are among the hurlers who could be in the mix for starts with the club next year but none have staked a firm claim to a rotation spot, leaving plenty of opportunity for an unproven upside-arm like Soroka to break into the rotation.

Heaney, by contrast, is a fairly well-established veteran arm at this point. The 33-year-old has been a more or less league average starter for the majority of his career at this point, with a 4.45 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.28 FIP in 851 2/3 innings of work for the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers since the start of the 2018 season. While Heaney flashed some further upside in 2022 when he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) for the Dodgers, his subsequent two years with Texas have seen him revert to his solid but unspectacular work as a back-end starter: 307 1/3 innings of work across 66 outings (59 starts) during which he posted a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.34 FIP. While Soroka would be a high-risk, high-reward addition for Detroit, signing Heaney would offer a more stable solution for the club’s rotation who could reliably lessen the workload expected from the club’s other rotation options.

While Stavenhagen only name-checked Buehler, Soroka, and Heaney as potential targets for the Tigers, there are plenty of other arms who could be had on short-term deals this winter. Plenty of fans and media members have speculated on the possibility that the club could look to reunite with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in free agency this year. The two future Hall of Famers established themselves as among the game’s best pitchers in Detroit during the club’s last competitive window, and betting on one or the other to have something left in the tank in the twilight of their careers could be exactly the sort of short-term, high-upside gamble that Stavenhagen suggests president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are searching for. Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Gibson are among the other veteran starting pitching options expected to sign shorter-term deals this winter who could be plausible fits for the Tigers.

Be that as it may, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s end-of-season press conference struck an optimistic tone regarding the in-house hitters the Rangers currently possess. “The biggest remedy, in my opinion, is improving the guys we currently have,” Young said (via Grant). The recently extended Rangers baseball ops leader called internal improvements to the lineup a “heavy priority” heading into next season.

With regard to outside additions, those will come more on the pitching side of the roster. MLB.com’s Kennedi Landri writes that Young specifically mentioned that he’d like to retain impending free agents Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Eovaldi triggered a $20MM player option this season when he reached a combined 300 innings between 2023-24, but he’s widely expected to decline that in favor of a return to the market (barring a hypothetical extension from his current club). Heaney exercised a player option following the 2023 season and returned to make 31 solid starts in this year’s rotation.

“As far as Evo and Andrew go, those are priorities for us,” said Young. “We love those guys. They helped us win a World Series. We would love to bring those guys back, and we’re going to explore every way we can to make that happen.”

Entering the 2025 season, Texas won’t be short on rotation options. Jacob deGrom should be the Opening Day starter now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, though counting on him for a full slate of 30-plus starts doesn’t feel realistic when he hasn’t reached that total since 2019. He’ll be joined by Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle (also in his first full season post-Tommy John) and some combination of Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. With deGrom and Mahle both facing workload concerns and the bulk of the team’s other options yet to pitch a full season in a big league rotation, it’s understandable that the Rangers feel it not just prudent but pivotal to fortify the starting staff.

Reunions with Eovaldi and/or Heaney won’t come cheaply, however. Eovaldi’s two-year, $34MM deal proved to be a bargain, even as incentives ballooned his guarantee to a total of $38.5MM over his two years. He signed that deal coming off an injury-shortened year with the Red Sox, who’d issued him a qualifying offer and thus tied him to draft pick compensation. Now healthy and unencumbered by the weight of a QO, he should be able to top that $34MM guarantee even though he’s two years older than during his last trip to the open market.

Heaney, similarly, was coming off a season of just 72 2/3 innings with the Dodgers. He hasn’t looked as dominant in Texas as he did during that abbreviated run with L.A., but he just gave the Rangers a combined 307 1/3 innings of 4.22 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.6%, respectively. He could find another two-year deal in the market, and it’s possible that would come with a larger guarantee than the $25MM term on his last pact.

The extent to which Texas will be able to spend in free agency is not yet clear. RosterResource pegs them with about $148MM worth of 2025 commitments, and that’s not including arbitration raises for Dunning, Heim, Sborz, Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras — a group that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a combined $25.5MM. Add in a slate of league-minimum players, and Texas is looking at around $185MM in total projected salary for next year’s 26-man roster. That’s $40MM shy of where they opened the 2024 season, so there’s clearly some room to spend, but that $40MM could dry up quickly if the Rangers are intent not only on adding at least one starter, but also on replacing effectively their entire late-inning relief corps.

To say Texas is likely to be active in the bullpen market would be putting things mildly. Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc and Jose Urena — their top four relievers by innings pitched — are all free agents. Deadline acquisition Andrew Chafin has a $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) that is not a lock to be exercised. Robertson has a $7MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout) and will very likely decline his end of it. Yates, Robertson, Leclerc, Chafin and Josh Sborz — who missed most of the season due to shoulder problems — were the team’s go-to options in high-leverage spots.

Young didn’t comment on what level of increase will or won’t be possible. He plans to meet with majority owner Ray Davis in the near future to outline a spending plan. While Young avoided any firm declarations on payroll, he spoke about uncertainty regarding the team’s endeavors to create a proprietary regional sports network and pledged to build a “very good roster with whatever resources we have.”

On the surface, that’s a far cry from his Aug. 2021 comments wherein he pledged to be “very active” in free agency — and then followed through with blockbuster signings of Seager and Marcus Semien. More context on the Rangers’ potential spending figures to come to light as the onset of free agency draws nearer, but given the team’s current financial obligations and needs up and down the pitching staff, it’s hardly a shock that Young is prioritizing arms and hoping to see a talented core of hitters rebound at the plate next season.

“I didn’t think it was fair to take a spot from [Liover Peguero], or one of the young guys, an opportunity to play at Yankee Stadium away from them,” says Kiner-Falefa, whom the Pirates acquired from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. “I got hurt this year. I missed a month. If that doesn’t happen, or if we’re actually in a real race, I crush those incentives by a long shot. So, at the end of the day, I feel like I didn’t deserve it from that aspect. It’s nothing the team did. They tried to make it right at the end. That meant a lot to me right there. I’m thankful to [Shelton] and the organization to give me that opportunity.”

A couple more interesting contract notes from the final weekend of the season…

• Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney began his final start of the season Sunday at 156 innings, just four frames away from unlocking a $1.5MM bonus in his two-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that although he was hit hard through the first three innings of the game (seven runs allowed), Heaney was allowed to complete the fourth inning as a reward for the selflessness he’s shown in his two seasons with the club and for the value he’s provided as a teammate in the clubhouse. “[General manager Chris Young] said we are going to do the right things by people, by players and by fans,” Heaney tells Grant. “Chris and [manager] Bruce Bochy are baseball lifers and they understand what it means. I believed everything Chris told me when I signed here. It has been everything he presented and more.” The 33-year-old Heaney finished out the 2024 season with a 4.28 ERA in his 160 frames and logged an overall 4.22 ERA in 307 1/3 innings over his two years in Texas. He’s a free agent this winter.
• Right-hander Chris Flexen has eaten innings at the back of the White Sox’ rotation amid the team’s historically feeble season, and the club made sure in his final start of the season that Flexen was able to reach the final incentive milestone in his one-year, $1.75MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale points out. Flexen’s deal called for $250K bonuses at each of 75, 100, 125 and 160 innings. The right-hander entered Sunday’s start with 153 2/3 innings under his belt. Flexen made the decision pretty easy for the Sox, as he tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Angels. Still, few would’ve questioned the decision to pull Flexen after six scoreless innings, 88 pitches and a 7-0 lead. But the Sox made sure to send Flexen back out for the seventh and only lifted him after he’d recorded that first out to get him to that 160-inning threshold. He finished out the season with a 4.95 ERA, leading the team in innings and ranking second to Garrett Crochet with 30 starts. Flexen will head back to free agency this winter.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

Heaney, 32, was regarded as a borderline candidate to opt out of his final year in Texas and return to the open market this offseason. MLBTR readers were polled on Heaney’s upcoming decision last month, with 62% of respondents suggesting that Heaney ought to exercise his player option for the 2024 campaign and return to the Rangers against 38% suggesting he return to the open market this offseason in search of a more lucrative deal.

It’s certainly an understandable decision. After signing in Texas on the heels of a strong albeit injury-shortened campaign with the Dodgers last year, Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023 but saw his results take a turn for the worse: while his 147 1/3 innings of work in 2023 more than doubled the 72 2/3 innings of work he posted in LA, his ERA ballooned from 3.10 last year up to 4.15 in 2023 while he struck out just 23.6% of batters faced after striking out a whopping 35.5% with the Dodgers. Given the downturn in results and his lengthy injury history, it was reasonable to wonder if Heaney would simply be better off hoping for a stronger platform season in 2024 rather than wading into a deep class of free agent starting options.

With Heaney locked in as a member of the Rangers pitching staff for 2024, it leaves Texas with a quality, mid-rotation veteran option available to them as a potential Opening Day rotation option next season. With Jordan Montgomery and Martin Perez both heading to the open market and ace righty Jacob deGrom rehabbing Tommy John surgery to open next year, Heaney’s return could theoretically round out a Rangers starting five that already contained Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning. With that being said, both Heaney and Dunning have seen plenty of time in relief roles in the past, leaving the door open for potential additions to the club’s starting group if they look to re-sign Montgomery or add another front-end starter to pair with Scherzer and Eovaldi atop the club’s rotation.

As for Leclerc, the Rangers’ decision to retain the 29-year-old righty is hardly a surprising one. After struggling in 2019 and missing time in 2020 and 2021 due to a shoulder strain and Tommy John surgery, Leclerc has been nothing short of excellent for the Rangers the past two seasons, with a 2.75 ERA (155 ERA+) and 3.67 FIP in 104 2/3 innings of work the past two seasons. 2023 in particular was a strong season for the righty, as he posted a 2.68 ERA and 3.62 FIP while striking out 28.8% of batters faced. Given those numbers, retaining Leclerc to help anchor the club’s bullpen next season was something of a no-brainer, particularly given the club option Texas holds for his services in 2025.

The bullpen figures to be a major area of focus for the Rangers this offseason. The club’s 4.77 ERA out of the bullpen in 2023 was the seventh-worst figure among all big league clubs, and the Rangers stand to lose flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman and veteran set-up options Will Smith and Chris Stratton to the open market this offseason. While the club has some interesting young arms like left-handers Brock Burke and Cody Bradford who could be relied on to help cover innings, the club will need to restock its relief corps with late-inning options who can surround Leclerc. Of course, a hypothetical addition to the starting rotation could help improve the club’s bullpen as well by kicking either Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role.

Mayer has been been doing rehab work since the season ended, per McCaffrey, and is expected to have a normal offseason this winter. It’s surely a significant relief for the Red Sox, as Mayer could be on the radar to reach the majors sometime next year given the club’s lack of certainty in the middle infield. Boston figures to use Trevor Story as their everyday shortstop next year, though he slashed just .203/.250/.316 in 43 games this year after returning from surgery midseason. Alongside Story, the club sports a handful of options including Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela as potential contributors up the middle.

Also discussed in McCaffrey’s piece is right-hander Noah Song, who was returned to the Red Sox by the Phillies back in August after the Phillies selected Song in the Rule 5 draft last offseason. While McCaffrey notes that the club may decide to protect Song from the Rule 5 draft this year to avoid a similar situation, she suggests it’s also possible that Song’s inability to stick on the roster in Philadelphia in 2023 could leave him unlikely to do so in 2024, even if selected for a second time. As a member of the naval reserves, Song has certain obligations to the US military that have impacted his ability to play baseball professionally in the past. That being said, McCaffrey relays that Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham believes Song’s military duties can be fulfilled during the offseason, allowing him to have a normal 2024 campaign.

More from the American League…

• Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney discussed his decision to sign in Texas last winter recently with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. Heaney acknowledged that he discussed potential deals with several teams, including the Red Sox, adding that he spoke with the team remotely and met with a member of the club’s medical staff during negotiations last offseason. Ultimately, Heaney notes that his decision to sign in Texas was influenced by the Oklahoma City native wanting to play for his hometown team. Heaney can opt out of the final year and $13MM on his deal with the Rangers this offseason. If he decides to do so on the heels of a season where he posted a 4.15 ERA in 147 1/3 innings of work it’s at least possible that the Red Sox, who figure to lose lefty James Paxton and righty Corey Kluber to free agency later this month, could be a suitor for his services once again.
• Long-time Twins TV broadcaster Dick Bremer is stepping away from the booth after 40 years as the club’s play-by-play announcer, per an announcement by the club yesterday. Bremer, 67, will remain as a member of the Twins organization as a special assistant to the front office. Per the club’s press release, the Twins are currently “assessing potential broadcast options as well as a talent lineup for 2024 and beyond” with announcements expected later this offseason. Minnesota, of course, is among the teams impacted by Diamond Sports Group filing for bankruptcy back in March. The split with Diamond has left the club’s broadcast situation up in the air headed into the 2024 campaign.

Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.

Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.

That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.

Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.

Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

The decision to move Perez into a relief role was sensible at the time. The veteran southpaw made 20 starts for Texas earlier this year but had limped to a 4.98 ERA in 108 1/3 innings in that role — a far cry from 2022’s stellar 2.89 ERA in 32 starts (196 1/3 innings). The bullpen move has helped Perez get back on track; in 13 relief appearances, he’s logged 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a 19-to-6 K/BB ratio and an enormous 65.9% ground-ball rate. That includes a particularly strong stretch over his past nine appearances, where he’s allowed just two runs in 15 2/3 innings while sporting a 15-to-3 K/BB mark.

Right-hander Jon Gray lasted just 2 1/3 innings yesterday before giving way to Perez, who came on to toss 4 2/3 innings of scoreless relief and earn his tenth win of the season in the process. Perez tossed 64 pitches, allowed three hits and a walk, and punched out five batters in that nearly spotless performance. It was a much-needed respite for a Rangers bullpen that had been tasked with covering 23 innings in the team’s past six games.

Southpaw Jordan Montgomery is locked in as the Rangers’ top starter now that Max Scherzer’s regular season is likely over due to a strained teres major. Nathan Eovaldi is still building back up from a lengthy IL stint due to a forearm strain. He pitched five innings in his most recent outing — his longest since originally hitting the IL back in July. Dane Dunning and Gray have also been making regular starts, although Gray has hit a wall of late, yielding 13 runs in 13 2/3 frames over his past four starts combined. Rookie left-hander Cody Bradford made a start earlier this week — his seventh of the year but his first since late July — and was tagged for six runs in three innings.

Texas also has veteran starter Andrew Heaney as an option to start down the stretch, but there’s financial motivation for them to keep him in the bullpen role to which he was recently shifted. The second season of Heaney’s two-year, $25MM contract is a player option valued at $13MM, but that would jump to a $20MM value if he pitches 150 innings in 2023. He’s currently at 138 1/3 innings on the year, and keeping him in a relief role will likely keep that player option at the lower of those two values.

Perez’s return to the rotation will come at a pivotal time in the game’s most tightly contested division. The Rangers and Mariners are tied with identical 84-68 records, both sitting just a half game behind the division-leading Astros. Beyond that, Texas and Seattle play seven of their final ten games this season against one another, making every start of critical importance. If Perez indeed makes another start or two and helps push the Rangers into the postseason, he’d be an option to take the ball in a playoff start as well.

A strong finish to the year in a return to a starting role would also bode well for Perez this offseason, when he’ll once again be a free agent. His work out of the ’pen has improved his season line to a 4.49 in 136 1/3 innings. This season’s 15% strikeout rate is down considerably from last year’s 20.6% mark, and it’s a similar story with his ground-ball rate (51.4% in 2022; 45.6% in 2023). That said, if Perez can close out the year on a high note and perhaps show well in the postseason, he’ll have a decent case as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater who should command interest from clubs in need of innings.

Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.

For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.

With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.

Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.

It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.

Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

• Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
• Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
• Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
• Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
• Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
• Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
• Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
• Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

• Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
• Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
• Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
• Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
• Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
• Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
• Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
• Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
• Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
• Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Dec. 6, 7:42pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Heaney will earn $12.5MM in guaranteed money in 2023, with the ability to earn up to $5MM more in performance bonuses.

4:40pm: The Rangers have an agreement with free agent pitcher Andrew Heaney, pending a physical. It will be a two-year, $25MM deal with incentives that could take it up to $37MM. Heaney will be able to opt out of the deal after the first season. Heaney is represented by Icon Sports Management.

Heaney, 32 in June, has long been an enticing hurler due to his incredible ability to rack up strikeouts. Since the start of the 2016 season, his 27.2% strikeout rate is well above average and ranks 21st among all pitchers in the majors in that stretch, minimum 500 innings pitched.

However, despite banking all those Ks, there have also been concerns around Heaney. One is his tendency to get tattooed by the long ball too often. For his career, 16.1% of his fly balls have left the yard, which is certainly on the high side. League wide averages fluctuate in this department as the ball seems to be changing from year to year, but the average in 2022 was 11.4%. Even in the “juiced ball” season of 2019, the rate only got as high as 15.3%, still below Heaney’s career rate. Those home runs are a big reason why he has a career ERA of 4.56 despite all those punchouts. Another knock on Heaney is health, as he’s only once reached 130 innings in a single season. That’s been due to a number of factors, including Tommy John surgery in 2016 and various bouts of elbow inflammation since then.

For 2022, Heaney seemed to take a step forward performance wise, but without completely eliminating those concerning tendencies. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $8.5MM deal and then changed his pitch repertoire. His curveball and sinker were eliminated in favor of a new slider to pair with his four-seamer and the occasional changeup. The results were excellent as Heaney struck out an incredible 35.5% of batters faced, well beyond his own track record and second to only Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched on the year.

However, injuries were once again a problem, with Heaney making multiple trips to the IL due to shoulder issues throughout the year. In the end, he made 14 starts and two relief appearances, getting to 72 2/3 innings pitched for the whole season, with three more added in the playoffs. The long ball was still present as well, as he allowed 14 homers in that sample, leading to a HR/FB rate of 17.9%. Despite the massive strikeout rate, those home runs bumped his ERA up to 3.10.

Even with those concerns, MLBTR predicted that Heaney would get enough interest to land a three-year, $42MM deal, or $14MM per season. It’s possible that Heaney got a wide variety of creative contracts to address his high upside potential but also the big question marks. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that Heaney had nine different offers before agreeing to this Rangers deal, and recent reporting indicated he had three-year offers and was trying to get a fourth. The exact details of those other offers aren’t known, but Heaney has taken a deal with a solid $25MM guarantee, $12.5MM per year, but the possibility to earn much more.

For one thing, the opt-out after 2023 will give him the chance to return to the open market a year from now. If Heaney finally stays healthy and produces the elite results he’s clearly capable of, he could opt out and land himself a much larger contract at that point. There’s also the incentives in the deal, with the specifics not yet known, but that’s another avenue for Heaney to end up doing quite well for himself on the deal.

For the Rangers, this is the latest in a series of moves that has completely remade their rotation. Just about a month ago, their on-paper starting group consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch question marks. Since then, they’ve re-signed Martín Pérez, acquired Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta, signed arguably the best pitcher on the planet in Jacob deGrom and have now added Heaney into the mix. In a way, the Heaney deal is an echo of the deGrom deal, as both pitchers have excellent stuff when healthy but have injury concerns. deGrom is in another league compared to Heaney, but they are similar high-risk upside plays for the Rangers.

The collective moves also are something of a mirror to what the club did a year ago. Tired of rebuilding and looking for a return to contention, the Rangers spent aggressively to land two of the top middle infielders in available in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Those two players didn’t immediately turn around the fortunes of the franchise, as the Rangers went 68-94 in 2022. That was largely due to a poor rotation that, as mentioned, they have completely remade in the past month. The club’s starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA that was 25th among the 30 teams in baseball. But with deGrom, Heaney and Odorizzi in the fold, their odds of moving up the list in that category are quite strong.

Financially, this deal pushes the club’s payroll up to $182MM and their competitive balance tax figure up to $204MM, per Roster Resource. The club seems poised to blow well past their previous spending levels, as their highest Opening Day payroll in the past was $165MM back in 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s unclear how much more spending the club plans to do, but they still have almost $30MM of wiggle room before reaching the $233MM luxury tax threshold for 2023.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported the sides were nearing a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that an agreement was in place, pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the two-year structure with an opt-out. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first had the $25MM guarantee plus incentives. Alden González of ESPN first added the $37MM post-incentives figure.