Beginning with the Phillies, they weren’t willing to include Andrew Painter, who remains a top-34 prospect in the view of both Baseball America (20th) and MLB Pipeline (34th) even though he hasn’t pitched since September 2022.  A UCL sprain sidelined Painter during Spring Training 2023 and he underwent a Tommy John surgery in July 2023, putting the highly-touted righty on pace to be ready for the start of the 2025 campaign.

The 13th overall pick of the 2021 draft Painter has only pitched 109 2/3 pro innings, including 28 1/3 innings at the Double-A level.  He could start 2025 back at Double-A if the Phillies want to relatively ease him back into action after his long layoff, though if all goes well, Painter could move up the ladder pretty quickly and become an option for Philadelphia’s big league staff before the end of next season.  Since Painter is still just 21 years old, it is understandable why even a win-now team with a pretty crowded pitching staff would be wary about moving a top prospect with front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rather than make a big splash of a Crochet trade, Philadelphia instead made a more modest set of moves prior to the deadline.  The Phillies’ discussions with the White Sox about Crochet might’ve spun off into the trade that brought Tanner Banks to Philadelphia, and the Fightins’ deadline adds also includes the likes of Carlos Estevez and Austin Hays.

Chicago’s talks with Los Angeles were still ongoing in the last hour before the deadline, before the Dodgers apparently pivoted and instead landed Jack Flaherty from the Tigers.  Since Flaherty is a free agent after the season and his trade market may have been impacted by some injury concerns, naturally the Tigers’ ask for the right-hander was much lower than what the White Sox were seeking for Crochet, who is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.

Top catching prospect Dalton Rushing wasn’t included in the Dodgers’ offers for Crochet, but River Ryan was, though Rosenthal notes that “the White Sox had concerns about [Ryan’s] health.”  Chicago’s focus was on the shoulder problem that cost Ryan the first two months of the minor league season, but Ryan has since been sidelined by a Tommy John surgery that will likely keep him out of action for the entirety of the 2025 campaign.

The Dodgers had such a need for pitching that Ryan got a bit of a fast track to the majors following his shoulder injury, as Ryan amassed only 24 1/3 innings in the minors (16 1/3 at the Triple-A level) this season before he was called up for his MLB debut.  To this end, moving a big league-ready starter for Crochet probably wasn’t an ideal scenario for an L.A. team that basically needs all the arms it can get at this point, yet the Dodgers were obviously going to have to give up a lot to pry Crochet away from the White Sox.

Rushing’s name has been involved in trade speculation even before Will Smith signed his big contract extension with Los Angeles in March.  Smith’s status as the Dodgers’ catcher of the foreseeable future could make either Rushing or fellow catching prospect Diego Cartaya expendable, yet it could be that L.A. didn’t want to move Rushing before experimenting with him at another position.  Rushing has been playing only left field since his promotion to Triple-A earlier this month, and he has kept up the hot hitting even while adapting to a new position and facing a higher caliber of pitching, so it isn’t out of the question that Rushing could make his Major League debut before 2024 is over.

In another note about the Crochet trade talks, Rosenthal writes that “the White Sox also entertained offers in which they would have received lesser [prospect] packages but gained salary relief.”  These particular discussions reportedly involved Andrew Benintendi, so in this scenario, an unknown team would’ve eaten all or most of Benintendi’s remaining contract as a sweetener to obtain Crochet.  Rosenthal didn’t specify which teams made such offers, though the Dodgers and Phillies both seem less likely candidates, as adding Benintendi’s contract would’ve come at an even heftier cost for two teams deep into luxury tax territory.

On the one hand, Benintendi’s five-year, $75MM contract is already looking like a misfire less than two seasons in, so packaging him along with Crochet might be Chicago’s only reasonable method of getting Benintendi off the books.  That being said, Crochet is also the team’s best trade asset, and moving him for a prospect package of maximum value is a clear way for the Sox to bring more talent into the organization.  Diluting that return just to save some money wouldn’t seem all that prudent, especially since the White Sox reduced payroll in other deadline deals.  Benintendi is owed $47.5MM over the 2025-27 seasons, but the Sox have just under $41MM committed to their entire 2025 payroll, as per RosterResource.

Crochet is on the hill against the Rockies today for the 18th start of a breakout campaign.  The southpaw has a 3.05 ERA over 94 1/3 innings, with a league-best 130 strikeouts and 12.4 K/9, plus a 34.9% strikeout rate that ranks in the 98th percentile of all pitchers.  This ability to miss bats has been paired with limited free passes, as Crochet’s 5.4% walk rate is a key stat given how he had dealt with some control issues in his young career.  Crochet’s cutter and his 96.9mph fastball are both among the deadliest pitches in the league, leaving batters fooled unless they can capitalize on his below-average slider.

This kind of production isn’t exactly a surprise, given that Crochet was the 11th overall pick of the 2020 draft and was seen as an advanced enough prospect that he made his debut that very season, tossing six innings over five appearances.  Chicago further eased him into the majors in 2021 by using him as a reliever, and Crochet delivered a 2.82 ERA over 54 1/3 innings out of the Sox bullpen.  However, the injury concerns that long surrounded Crochet struck in 2022, as a Tommy John surgery cost him the entirety of that season and limited him to 12 2/3 frames in 2023.

Though it is quite rare to see midseason extensions actually finalized, it is common practice for clubs to at least broach the idea of a longer-term deal with potential trade candidates.  After all, if a player has enough value to draw trade attention from multiple rival teams, that same player can provide value to his own team, so there’s no harm in a club seeing if any common ground could be found on a multi-year contract.

This logic even extends to a team like the White Sox, who are a lot closer to a full-on fire sale than they are to contending in the near future.  Crochet only just turned 25 this month, and has been so impressive in his first season as a starting pitcher that he looks like he could be a front-of-the-rotation staple.  Even if the Sox might internally acknowledge that it’ll take a few years to fully right the ship, Crochet is still young enough that it is possible to see him as the ace of the next contending White Sox club….as long as he isn’t traded, of course.

Interestingly, Nightengale floats the idea that a long-term contract might also factor into Crochet’s trade situation, as Crochet and his representations might quickly seek out an extension with a new team.  Since Crochet has already thrown more innings (94 1/3) in 2024 than in the rest of his pro career combined (85 1/3 innings in the majors and minors from 2020-23), Nightengale suggested that Crochet might seek out some extra financial security to mitigate the extra risk if a new team asks him to put a lot more innings on his arm over the course of the regular season and potentially into October.

In terms of how the White Sox themselves intend to manage Crochet, Nightengale writes that the club “and Crochet already have a firm plan in place to greatly limit his workload.”  This description runs somewhat counter to the looser arrangement Sox manager Pedro Grifol described to The Associated Press and other reporters earlier this week.  Grifol didn’t describe the situation as an actual innings limit, citing a hypothetical scenario where Crochet might sail through several innings in a start on a low pitch count.

“It’s not something we’re going to put out and say, ’Here’s what we’re doing,’ because nothing in this game is black and white…He’s slowly detraining through the course of the year so he can finish the season,” Grifol said.  “We’re not going to detrain him and build him back to the capacity where he was at the start of the season. This is going downhill now. We have to really monitor his workload.”

A team that acquired Crochet would surely have these same innings-management concerns in mind, which adds another wrinkle to his trade market.  Could a team with some rotation depth problems but with a fairly stable top two or three pitchers use Crochet as a starter to ensure they reach the playoffs, and then use Crochet as an (overqualified) relief weapon in the postseason?  Could a team multiple decent starters but not a clear-cut ace perhaps insert Crochet as part of a six-man rotation, in order to try and keep him fresh for the playoffs?  Or, could a team that is only a borderline contender this season acquire Crochet and stick to Chicago’s plan, perhaps more with an eye towards a full-fledged run at contention in 2025?

There is no shortage of interest in Crochet, as Nightengale reports that 15 teams have checked in with the White Sox front office about the left-hander’s services.  The Sox have already turned down one offer from the Dodgers, who stand out as a logical suitor for several reasons — their win-now mentality, their rotation needs amidst several injuries to starters, and a deep farm system that would theoretically meet Chicago’s sky-high asking price.

In terms of other White Sox trade chips, Luis Robert Jr. continues to generate interest, but Nightengale feels the Sox might not have as much motivation to move the outfielder by the deadline.  Robert missed close to two months of the season with a hip flexor strain and has only a .206/.280/.486 slash line over his first 118 plate appearances, albeit with eight home runs.  With this latest injury and Robert’s modest production in mind, the White Sox wouldn’t exactly be selling high if they dealt Robert by July 30, so the team could wait until the offseason to more fully gauge offers (after Robert has presumably finished off the 2024 season in healthy and productive fashion).  Robert’s contract comes with a pair of club options that control his services through 2027, so the White Sox have some flexibility in waiting to see if an acceptable trade offer emerges.

The Sox are also “openly shopping” Andrew Benintendi, Nightengale writes, which comes as zero surprise.  If Crochet and Robert are Chicago’s top trade chips, Benintendi represents the other end of the spectrum, as a pricey veteran who is struggling through his second consecutive rough seasons.  Since Benintendi is owed $47.5MM over the 2025-27 seasons, the White Sox would either have to eat all or virtually all of that remaining salary to facilitate a trade, or swap Benintendi for another unfavorable contract.  Neither scenario would provide much benefit to the Sox, so Benintendi could remain one for the more immovable players in the sport.

Hill, 34, signed with the White Sox in the offseason on a one-year deal with a guarantee of $1.8MM. The Sox were surely hoping that the experienced groundballer could provide a veteran presence to the club while also perhaps turning himself into a midseason trade chip.

Unfortunately, the results haven’t quite been there for Hill so far this year. He has made 27 appearances for the Sox but has an earned run average of 5.87. That’s obviously not a great number, but it’s possible that Hill has been more unlucky than bad.

His 11% strikeout rate is less than half the league average, but that’s not terribly unusual for him. He only struck out 12.6% of batters faced with the Padres in 2022, a season he finished with a 3.56 ERA. His 8.5% walk rate this year is right around league average while his 65.6% ground ball rate would actually be a career high, as his previous best was a clip of 61.8% in his rookie season.

The major difference in Hill this season seems to be a .436 batting average on balls in play. That’s well beyond the .286 league average and Hill’s career number of .310. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA have Hill at 3.44 and 3.87 respectively, suggesting it’s possible he’s been closer to his previous form than it would appear at first glance, as he had a 3.72 ERA from 2020 to 2022. His exit velocity and hard hit numbers are roughly in line with previous seasons as well.

It’s possible the club’s poor defense isn’t doing him any favors, as the Sox have a collective -51 Defensive Runs Saved this year and -20 Outs Above Average. That DRS tally is the worst in the league while the OAA number in tied for last with the Marlins.

The Sox will now have one week to trade Hill or pass him through waivers. It’s possible that he could garner interest if some clubs are willing to overlook the earned runs this year and focus more on the underlying metrics. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his salary.

It seemed likely that Benintendi was headed for the IL after he was removed early from yesterday’s game.  Sox manager Pedro Grifol revealed to reporters that Benintendi had been playing with the injury for a while, and though the outfielder even homered prior to his early exit Saturday, the discomfort just became too much for Benintendi to bear.

The IL placement is yet another bad turn in Benintendi’s star-crossed tenure with the White Sox.  He signed a five-year, $75MM free agent deal with Chicago in the 2022-23 offseason, but then hit only .262/.326/.356 over 621 plate appearances last year.  The follow-up has been even worse, as Benintendi’s .195/.230/.284 slash line over 200 PA in 2024 has given him the lowest fWAR (-1.6) of any qualified player in baseball.  While there are still over three and a half years remaining on Benintendi’s deal, the largest contract in White Sox history is already looking like an albatross, which isn’t great news for a rebuilding Sox team that will be trying to move as much veteran talent as possible in order to reload with younger players.

Colas was in today’s starting lineup against the Brewers, and he has appeared in one other MLB game this season (a pinch-hit appearance in Chicago’s 7-6 loss to Cleveland on April 10).  The outfielder has otherwise spent the season at Triple-A Charlotte, hitting .244/.358/.406 with five home runs over 193 PA.  It seems possible that this could be another cup of coffee type of promotion for Colas, as Luis Robert Jr. is expected to be activated from the injured list this coming week, and possibly as early as Tuesday when the White Sox next take the field.

Then again, Colas’ time in the Show could also be elongated depending on Andrew Vaughn’s status, as Vaughn has missed Chicago’s last three games.  Vaughn hasn’t played since spraining his left ring finger while sliding into a base on Wednesday, and manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media that the plan was to see how Vaughn felt after 3-5 days of rest.  If Vaughn still isn’t showing improvement on Tuesday, he might go on the IL himself (with three days of backdated placement) if Robert is ready to be activated.

Vaughn is unfortunately not far ahead of Benintendi, as Vaughn’s -0.8 fWAR is the fourth-worst of any qualified player.  The former third overall pick had a 107 wRC+ and a .264/.317/.429 slash line over 1170 PA during the 2022-23 seasons, but he has taken a big step backwards with a .199/.264/.313 slash and four homers in his first 220 trips to the plate this year.  Gavin Sheets has been filling in at first base in Vaughn’s absence.

The Tigers also offered an update regarding left-hander Tyler Alexander today. Alexander was placed on the 60-day injured list with a left lat/shoulder strain last week, a move that seemingly indicated the lefty’s season could be in jeopardy. Following an MRI, the club has more clarity regarding Alexander’s timeline for return. Per McCosky, Alexander will avoid surgery but be shut down for three months. He’ll resume a throwing program in October that should leave him able to return in time for Spring Training in 2024. Alexander had posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 44 innings of work across 25 appearances this season.

More from around the AL Central…

• Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press) that second baseman Jorge Polanco is expected to start a rehab assignment in the near future as he recovers from a hamstring strain he suffered early last month. Polanco has been limited to just 30 games this season and has slashed .250/.291/.450 when healthy enough to play. While Polanco has been out, youngster Edouard Julien has filled in at the keystone very well with an impressive .264/.345/.273 slash line in 149 plate appearances this season.
• White Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi has been dealing with a right wrist issue recently, which Scott Merkin of MLB.com says has been “addressed” according to manager Pedro Grifol. Benintendi hasn’t played since Friday, but is expected to return to action after the All Star break in Atlanta. Benintendi hasn’t been as impactful this season as the White Sox were surely hoping when they signed him to a five-year deal this past offseason, slashing .280/.347/.369 with just one home run in 314 plate appearances, good for a roughly league average wRC+ of 99. The Sox entered play today with a record of just 38-53 this season, but are surely hoping an extended rest for Benintendi ahead of the midsummer classic will allow him to return healthy and more impactful in the second half.

An injury would only add to what has been a brutal start to the season for Diaz, and the A’s as a whole.  Diaz is hitting only .153/.226/.212 over his first 93 plate appearances, after signing a two-year, $14.5MM deal with Oakland during the winter.  While the offense hasn’t been there, Diaz has at least provided some versatility, playing at all four infield positions over his 25 games. [UPDATE: The A’s will see how Diaz is feeling after Monday’s offday, according to MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos.  An MRI revealed a Grade 1 hamstring strain for Diaz, but there is apparently some hope that a couple of days’ rest might allow Diaz to avoid the injured list.]

More on other injury situations from around the American League…

• The Yankees selected Jake Bauers’ contract prior to today’s game with the Rangers, but his return to the big leagues has already been clouded by an injury scare.  Bauers made an outstanding catch to rob Adolis Garcia of extra bases in the bottom of the first inning, but had to make a hard slide into the wall to complete the play.  Officially diagnosed as a right knee contusion, Bauers’ injury will receive further testing, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and Newsday’s Erik Boland).  Boone said “it’s possible” the club might need to call someone up from Triple-A as early as tomorrow if Bauers needs to go on the injured list, and Boland also noted that Bauers was walking “with a significant limp in the clubhouse” after the game.
• Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that Kyle Farmer might begin a rehab assignment this week.  Farmer hasn’t played since April 12, when he was hit in the face by a Lucas Giolito fastball.  The scary-looking injury resulted in a facial laceration and some significant dental work for Farmer, but he fortunately avoided anything more serious like a concussion or a broken jaw.  Minnesota acquired Farmer in a trade with the Reds back in November, and when Farmer is healthy, he’ll resume his role as a multi-positional option on the Twins’ bench.
• X-rays were negative on Andrew Benintendi’s elbow after the White Sox outfielder was hit by a pitch during Friday’s game.  Benintendi didn’t play today but manager Pedro Grifol told The Athletic’s James Fegan and other reporters that Benintendi might be back as early as Sunday.  While Benintendi isn’t known for his power bat, he hasn’t delivered much pop in his short time in Chicago, hitting .281/.337/.333 in his first 104 PA in a White Sox uniform.  The outfielder signed a five-year, $75MM free agent contract with the Sox in the offseason.

December 16: The White Sox have agreed to a five-year contract with free-agent outfielder Andrew Benintendi, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter). Benintendi, a client of Excel Sports Management, will be guaranteed $75MM on the contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Benintendi, 28, was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Red Sox and ranked as the sport’s No. 1 prospect at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com prior to his big league debut. The runner up to Aaron Judge for American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2017, he turned in a brilliant .290/.366/.465 batting line with 18 home runs and 21 steals a year later in 2018, seemingly setting the stage for him to break out into full blown stardom.

That never really transpired, however. Four full seasons have gone by since that time, and Benintendi has instead settled in as a solid regular in left field but not the perennial All-Star he looked to be early in his big league tenure. He’ll typically hit for average, draw plenty of walks and play good defense — Benintendi won a Gold Glove in 2021 — but he’s never settled in as a consistent power threat. Benintendi’s 20 home runs in 2017 still stand as his career high, and he hit just five home runs in 521 plate appearances between the Royals and Yankees in 2022 before a fractured hamate in his wrist ended his season.

Over the past four seasons, Benintendi has posted a combined .276/.345/.417 batting line with 35 home runs and 27 steals. He’s always been tough to strike out, but never more so than in 2022, when he fanned in just 14.8% of his plate appearances. It’s possible Benintendi took a more conservative, contact-oriented approach that resulted both in him hitting fewer home runs but also putting the ball in play with more frequency. Regardless, the lack of punchouts likely appealed to a White Sox club that posted the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball last year and watched as the Guardians won the AL Central with by far the game’s lowest strikeout rate.

A corner outfielder and left-handed bat to help balance out a heavily right-handed club were both clear needs for the South Siders, and Benintendi can check both boxes. He’ll hit at or near the top of the lineup, with Eloy Jimenez like sliding into a primary DH role now that Benintendi is on board. The Sox also bid farewell to stalwart first baseman Jose Abreu this offseason, which cleared the way for Andrew Vaughn to move from right field, where he ranked as one of MLB’s worst defenders at any position, to his natural position of first base.

Removing Vaughn and Jimenez from regular outfield work would’ve improved the outfield defense regardless of the replacements, but plugging Benintendi into the mix provides a substantial upgrade. In 5775 career innings in left field, he’s been credited with 32 Defensive Runs Saved. It’s notable that Statcast’s Outs Above Average feels quite differently, pegging Benintendi at -15 in that same time, although that’s skewed by one -10 season in 2019 (a season that DRS agrees was below average from a defensive standpoint). Benintendi and center fielder Luis Robert give the Sox a pair of above-average defenders in the outfield, although if the plan for right field is to use Gavin Sheets as a bridge to prospect Oscar Colas, at least one of the three outfield spots will still have the potential to be a defensive liability.

The White Sox opened the 2022 season with a club record $193MM payroll, and the addition of Benintendi figures to put them right back into that range again. Benintendi also pushes Chicago’s luxury-tax ledger a bit north of $205MM, per Roster Resource, though that’s still $28MM from the $233MM first tier of penalization. The Sox could still use help at second base and could stand to deepen their bench, so it’s likely that subsequent moves will push the team to a franchise-record payroll for a second season (barring a trade that sheds a current contract).

Somewhat remarkably, the $75MM guarantee gives Benintendi the largest contract in White Sox franchise history, narrowly topping Yasmani Grandal, who’d held the record at $73MM. The ChiSox have offered more than this in some high-profile free agent pursuits in recent years, most notably offering more than $200MM to Manny Machado and more than $100MM to Zack Wheeler. Both players, of course, ultimately signed elsewhere.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

With Jose Abreu already acquired and Rafael Montero re-signed, adding Benintendi would be the Astros’ latest step towards fortifying their roster for another World Series bid.  The team was already known to be looking for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder, to add both a bit more balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and to provide more assurance in left field.  Should an everyday player like Benintendi be signed, Jake Meyers would likely split time with Chas McCormick in center field, while Yordan Alvarez might see the occasional game in left field but would continue to primarily work as the designated hitter.

Benintendi wouldn’t come cheap, as MLBTR projects the 28-year-old to land a four-year, $54MM deal.  This price point factors in Benintendi’s relatively young age as he enters the free agent market, as well as a skillset that makes him a pretty safe bet to be a productive (if not necessarily a star) player going forward.

Being “only” a productive player seems like a respectable middle ground for Benintendi, who looked like a potential superstar early in his career with the Red Sox but then almost like a lost cause in the wake of a brutal 2020 season.  Benintendi rebounded with solid showings with the Royals and Yankees the last two seasons, moving to New York at the trade deadline before his season was ended by hamate bone surgery in early September.

This isn’t to say that Bentenindi might not yet have another breakout ahead of him, especially if he can turn around his drastic power dropoff in 2022.  Even without much pop, Benintendi still had a 122 wRC+ and a .304/.373/.399 slash line over 521 plate appearances last season.  A .352 BABIP aided that production, but Benintendi did an excellent job of taking walks, avoiding strikeouts, and putting the ball in play.  Combining that offensive profile with above-average defense and solid baserunning made for a 2.8 fWAR season for Benintendi in 2022, the second-highest fWAR total of his seven MLB seasons.

The Astros have just under $198MM in luxury tax commitments for 2023, so if Benintendi was signed to something in the range of that projected $13.5MM average annual value, Houston would still have plenty of room under the $233MM tax threshold to make further moves.  Owner Jim Crane recently said that the Astros “certainly have the ability to go at or over” the threshold, and spending on multiple players (Abreu, and perhaps at least one of Benintendi or Willson Contreras) might be more of a preferable strategy than splurging on a short-term, high-AAV deal on Justin Verlander.

Seattle currently has Julio Rodriguez and Hernandez locked into center and right field respectively, but left field could be open. Jesse Winker has played poor defense in left and struggled at the plate last season, and there’s been some reports that the Mariners could be open to moving him. Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell have both struggled in the big leagues, but they’re also former top prospects who are young enough to turn things around. Yet it’s clear this Mariners team is in win-now mode, so wouldn’t be surprising to see them pursue upgrades.

Nimmo seems less likely than Benintendi. Outside of Aaron Judge, he’s the clear top outfield free agent after an outstanding platform year that saw him post a 134 wRC+ and amass 5.4 fWAR. MLBTR predicted him to earn a five-year, $110MM deal this winter. With Rodriguez entrenched in center, Seattle could theoretically shift Nimmo to left, but there’s a lack of quality center field options available in free agency and a number of teams who need upgrades there. Given the price tag attached and the level of interest across the league, it seems unlikely Seattle would win a bidding war against teams operating with a bit more urgency at the position.

Benintendi doesn’t possess the upside of Nimmo, but still represents a quality option. His strong contact approach could make him a strong fit to leadoff ahead of Rodriguez, Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and the other Seattle power hitters. Between the Royals and Yankees in 2022, he posted a .304/.373/.399 line with five home runs while providing solid defense in left. He’d also come a lot cheaper than Nimmo, as MLBTR predicted him to land a four-year, $54MM contract.

While Benintendi and Nimmo are the two reported names, a number of other options would also make sense, including a reunion with Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto or Cody Bellinger, not to mention a host of trade possibilities. Any addition could see Kelenic and Trammell floated in trade discussions. They’d be selling low on both, but teams would surely be interested in acquiring either to try and tap into the potential that made them both top outfield prospects in all of baseball.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player.  As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere.  For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract.  Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts).  Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix.  DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place.  However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players.  Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon.  While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold.  Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five.  Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues.  Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

• Chris Bassitt (Mets)
• Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
• Willson Contreras (Cubs)
• Jacob deGrom (Mets)
• Edwin Díaz (Mets)
• Aaron Judge (Yankees)
• Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
• Carlos Rodón (Giants)
• Dansby Swanson (Braves)
• Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

• Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

• Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

• Mitch Haniger (Mariners)

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

• Andrew Heaney (Dodgers)

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

• Martín Pérez (Rangers)

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

• Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

• Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

• Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

• Mike Clevinger (Padres)

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

• Zach Eflin (Phillies)

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

• Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

• Sean Manaea (Padres)

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

• Jurickson Profar (Padres)

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

• Ross Stripling (Blue Jays)

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

• Michael Wacha (Red Sox)

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

• José Abreu (White Sox)
• Josh Bell (Padres)
• Andrew Benintendi (Yankees)
• Carlos Correa (Twins)
• Noah Syndergaard (Phillies)
• Justin Verlander (Astros)

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

The Yankees have eleven pending free agents, although it seems likely they’ll pick up Luis Severino’s $15MM team option and drop that number to ten. Among them are Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi. Both have indicated they’re open to a return to the Yankees, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. That they’ve said that is not a great surprise, as most pending free agents say they’re open or willing to discussing a return to their previous team, but it is interesting to consider in the case of Benintendi and Taillon as there’s a feasible pathway to the Yankees re-signing both.

Taillon was acquired from the Pirates prior to the 2021 season for minor leaguers Roansy Contreras, Maikol Escotto, Miguel Yajure and Canaan Smith-Njigba. Taillon is no stranger to injuries, he’s had Tommy John surgery twice as well as a hernia surgery back in 2015. He’s also a cancer survivor, having undergone testicular cancer surgery in 2017. His second Tommy John caused him to miss the 2020 season, and the Yankees managed his workload accordingly in 2021, so while he made 29 starts he only threw 144 1/3 innings. He ramped up in 2022 though, and tossed 177 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball. Taillon’s never been a big strikeout pitcher, and he punched out roughly a fifth of batters this season, but he displayed an excellent control, walking batters just 4.4% of the time. He is a little susceptible to the long ball, but on the whole Taillon is a reliable mid-rotation arm that could help a lot of teams moving forward.

One of those teams could be the Yankees. Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes will be back at the top of the rotation, while a returning Luis Severino should round out the first three spots. After that, there’s a few question marks. Domingo German threw 72 1/3 innings of  3.61 ERA ball, although his FIP sat at 4.44 and his fastball velocity declined slightly in 2022. Mid-season trade acquisition from Oakland Frankie Montas struggled in eight starts before going on the IL for the rest of the regular season, he returned in the playoffs but only threw one inning. Montas has a sound track record as a mid-rotation arm, but pitched to a 6.35 ERA in New York. He experienced a sharp decline in strikeouts, just 17.8% with the Yankees down 8% from the first half of the season in Oakland, while his walk rate jumped slightly. The Yankees could conceivably turn to both German and Montas to round out their rotation but given the question marks over both, the reliability of Taillon to solidify the backend of the rotation could hold plenty of appeal to Brian Cashman’s front office.

Benintendi was brought over from the Royals at the deadline, with the Yankees sending minor leaguers Chandler Champlain, T.J. Sikkema and Beck Way the other way. The 28-year-old was in the conversation for the batting title in Kansas City, slashing .320/387/.398. He got off to a slow start (two hits in his first 25 ABs) but found his groove eventually and hit .303 for the rest of the campaign. He missed almost all of September, however, with a broken hamate bone and failed to return for the playoffs. The Yankees acquired Benintendi as a lefty-hitting contact bat to balance out their slugger-heavy lineup, as well as offer strong defense in left. When fit, he provided exactly that and should have no shortage of multi-year offers in free agency.

Of course, the top priority in the outfield for the Yankees is Aaron Judge, but the team would do well to bring back Benintendi in left. The team used ten different players in left in 2022, with none playing in more than 55 games there. Aaron Hicks got the bulk of the playing time, but put up underwhelming numbers and at 33 is showing signs of decline. The team turned to rookie Oswaldo Cabrera down the stretch, and got solid results despite the fact he’d come up through the minor leagues as an infielder. He hit .247/.312/.429 in 44 games and impressed defensively. Depending on other moves, the team may prefer to keep Cabrera as a utility-man on the bench and bring back Benintendi as the team’s everyday left-fielder.

Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Yankees are indicating they won’t be shopping for a top shortstop this winter. That’s no surprise, as the club opted to trade for Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead of go after Carlos Correa and Corey Seager last winter. While Kiner-Falefa drew the ire of the fanbase, that move was made with a view to eventually having one of the Yankees’ top prospects Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe take over long-term. Peraza impressed in a handful of appearances in September, and made the playoff roster, and it seems likely the Yankees’ 2023 opening day shortstop will come from that trio.

Here is the full roster for the Yankees, as they get set to take on the Astros:

Right-Handed Pitchers

• Miguel Castro
• Gerrit Cole
• Domingo Germán
• Clay Holmes
• Jonathan Loáisiga
• Frankie Montas
• Clarke Schmidt
• Luis Severino
• Jameson Taillon (Game 1 starter)
• Lou Trivino
• Greg Weissert

Left-Handed Pitchers

• Nestor Cortes
• Wandy Peralta

Catchers

• Kyle Higashioka
• Jose Trevino

Infielders

• Matt Carpenter
• Josh Donaldson
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa
• Oswald Peraza
• Anthony Rizzo
• Gleyber Torres

Outfielders

• Harrison Bader
• Oswaldo Cabrera
• Aaron Judge
• Tim Locastro

Designated Hitter

• Giancarlo Stanton

The injury sustained by Hicks has led to a domino effect, necessitating some of today’s switches. For the last two games of the ALDS, Hicks started in left field with Oswaldo Cabrera at short, bumping Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the bench. After Hicks was injured yesterday, Kiner-Falefa was eventually installed at short with Cabrera going out to the left field. Without Hicks, it seems possible that the Yanks will use Aaron Judge, Harrison Bader and Cabrera as their regular outfield mix. That subtracts Cabrera from the infield picture, which Peraza will now step into. Gonzalez is capable of playing anywhere, though he hit just .185/.255/.321 this year. It seems the Yanks would prefer the rookie Peraza, who hit .306/.404/.429 in his 18-game debut this year.

Benintendi underwent hamate surgery in early September and has recently been working out, trying to get healthy enough to rejoin the club. However, recent reporting indicated he’s been experiencing continued soreness, leading to an injection in his wrist. With him not able to return, Cabrera could be in line for regular outfield duty. Giancarlo Stanton could theoretically be an option, having played 38 games in the outfield this year, though the Yanks might also opt to keep him as the designated hitter.

Similar to Benintendi, LeMahieu has been out of action for a while and has been trying to get healthy enough to return. His absence has been due to a ligament issue with the second toe of his right foot. It appears that he hasn’t recuperated enough to get a roster spot. With LeMahieu’s lingering issue, Cabrera likely in the outfield and Kiner-Falefa struggling, Peraza has been swapped in for Gonzalez to contend for shortstop playing time.

As for Montas, he was the Yankees’ big deadline acquisition for the pitching staff. However, he struggled badly after coming over from the A’s. He had a 3.18 ERA with Oakland but then a 6.35 ERA after the deal. It’s possible that shoulder issues were hampering him, as he missed a few starts prior to the trade and was eventually placed on the IL by the Yanks due to shoulder inflammation. He hasn’t been fully stretched out and won’t be a candidate for a starting job, though manager Aaron Boone recently said Montas could throw some multi-inning outings.

With the additions of Montas and Weissert and the subtraction of Luetge, the Yankees are left with Wandy Peralta as the only lefty in their bullpen. The Astros are very right-handed, having just two lefties in their lineup, though the two are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. It seems the Yanks have a bit more faith in some of their right-handers to face the middle of the Houston lineup, with Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga and Miguel Castro perhaps in line to try to quell Alvarez and Tucker.

While New York is obviously happy to advance, they didn’t come out of today’s contest completely unscathed. Left fielder Aaron Hicks was knocked out of the game in the top of the third after colliding with shortstop Oswaldo Cabrera in pursuit of a shallow fly ball off the bat of Steven Kwan. Hicks left the field with just slight assistance from skipper Aaron Boone, but he suffered a left knee injury that’ll end his playoffs. After the game, Hicks told reporters he’ll need around six weeks to recover (via Pete Caldera of the Bergen Record). Specifics of the injury aren’t clear, but the Yankees announced he was headed for an MRI.

It’s the conclusion of what has been a disappointing season altogether for Hicks. The 33-year-old hit .216/.330/.313 across 453 regular season plate appearances, his second straight below-average campaign. Hicks had been one of the game’s better center fielders from 2017-20, but he’s seen his power production take a sharp downward turn over the last two years. He also got subpar marks for his defense in center field, leading the Yankees to turn to Aaron Judge quite a bit more up the middle than they had in prior years before acquiring Harrison Bader from the Cardinals at the trade deadline.

Hicks was on the bench for the first three games of the Division Series, but he did draw into the lineup for the final two contests. He started in left field for both Game 4 and 5, going hitless with a walk in four plate appearances out of the nine-hole. Cabrera, who’d been the left fielder for the first three games of the series, moved up to shortstop for the final two contests. That pushed Isiah Kiner-Falefa out of the lineup after some defensive miscues in Game 3.

With Hicks out, the Yankees could move Cabrera back to left field and pencil Kiner-Falefa back in at short. They also have Matt Carpenter as a corner outfield option, although Boone indicated before the ALDS he preferred to keep Carpenter as a bench bat during his first action back after a two-month absence due to a foot fracture. Utilityman Marwin González drew an at-bat in relief of Hicks this evening, but the Yankees aren’t likely to give him a playoff start after a .185/.255/.321 showing in the regular season. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is also a possibility to assume some left field work, although it’s not clear whether the Yankees would run the risk of him playing defense for the first time since mid-July.

The Yankees acquired Andrew Benintendi from the Royals to solidify left field, but he’s been out since early September surgery to repair a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist. Boone indicated after tonight’s win he doesn’t anticipate Benintendi being active for the ALCS (via Andy Martino of SNY). The Yankees will have to formally announce their ALCS roster tomorrow, but it seems they’ll have to make due with their in-house outfield options against Houston.

It doesn’t seem likely Hicks’ injury will significantly affect his offseason routine. He’s under contract through 2025 and will presumably get a chance to compete for a starting job next spring, as the Yankees will have a hard time shedding any notable chunk of the $29.5MM that remains on his contract.