Smith said his ankle is only sore when he runs, and he is otherwise able to catch and hit normally.  As Ardaya notes, Smith’s post-injury numbers imply otherwise — Smith hit .292/.361/.498 in 238 plate appearances though June 8, and then only .213/.301/.382 in 306 PA afterwards, plus a .568 OPS over 65 more trips to the plate during the playoffs.  Los Angeles GM Brandon Gomes implied that the team might be more open to giving Smith extra off-days to keep him healthy and more well-rested in general for what the Dodgers hope is another deep postseason run.

This might not be the most prominent Will Smith-related news item to ever arise on an Oscar night, but let’s move onto some other notes from around the National League…

• Austin Gomber was scratched from a scheduled start today due to some soreness in his throwing shoulder, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.  Testing revealed no structural damage, though Rockies manager Bud Black wasn’t sure when Gomber might be back on the mound.  While Gomber isn’t a high-velocity pitcher, his fastball was also down a tick during his first Spring Training start last week, so the matter didn’t solely arise today.  Gomber viewed the situation as “a reset” rather than anything too serious, saying “maybe I would have tried to push it a little bit more if we were in a different spot on the calendar.  But it being so early in the year, I just felt like I wanted to take a few days to try to get a touch better and not have something that’s like nagging throughout the year.”  The veteran southpaw has been part of Colorado’s rotation for the last four seasons, and he posted a 4.75 ERA in 165 innings in 2024.
• A.J. Minter underwent season-ending hip surgery last August, and he hit a big checkpoint in his rehab process by throwing 20-25 pitches during a live batting practice session.  Minter told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that he “felt good” in the aftermath, and figures he’ll have at least one more live BP session before taking part in a proper Spring Training game setting.  Despite Minter’s injury, his track record as a reliable bullpen arm led to plenty of interest on the free agent market, and he joined the Mets on a two-year, $22MM deal (with an opt-out after the first year).  His progress hints that he might be able to be part of New York’s roster on Opening Day, but “we’re going to be smart about this.  If I have to miss a few days or a couple weeks, my goal is to help this team at the end of the season.”

The Mets were connected to Bregman earlier this winter but it always seemed like a somewhat less-than-perfect fit since the club has a lot of other options for the infield corners. First baseman Pete Alonso and the club have been in a bit of a staring contest for months and it’s still possible that he comes back to Queens. Even without Alonso, the Mets could have Mark Vientos as their regular first baseman and then have third base open for a competition between Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. Bregman is reportedly willing to move to second base but the Mets have Jeff McNeil there. McNeil can also play the outfield but the Mets have a somewhat crowded mix there.

Bregman is a more established big leaguer than any of the Mets young options but he wouldn’t come cheap. He reportedly has been unwilling to accept a six-year, $156MM offer from the Astros this winter, hoping to get something in the $200MM range. While the Mets might have had some interest in going with a more certain player like Bregman for the 2025 season, signing Bregman would be a larger commitment in terms of dollars and years. He’s about to turn 31 years old and the Baty/Acuña/Mauricio trio are all in the 22-26 range, so perhaps the Mets would rather dedicate their money elsewhere.

It also seems like Alonso is more likely to sign a short-term pact, having pitched a three-year deal to the Mets, while Bregman is still holding out hope for a long-term deal. Considering all those factors, it seems that a reunion with Alonso is probably more likely than pivoting to giving a big deal to Bregman.

Turning to players already on the roster, the club held Amazin’ Day recently, which allowed members of the media to get updates on certain players. Per two reports from Bill Ladson of MLB.com, both outfielder Brandon Nimmo and left-hander A.J. Minter are hoping to be ready before or around Opening Day.

Nimmo, the longtime Met, was playing through plantar fasciitis in his left foot during the latter parts of last year’s schedule. It’s possible that affected his performance, as he slashed .248/.361/.454 in the first half but just .190/.277/.319 in the second, followed by a tepid .220/.328/.280 performance in the postseason. He tells Ladson that he had an injection in his foot after the season and has ramped up to jogging, but has not yet started sprinting. He says he will probably miss some early spring training games but expects to be ready to go by Opening Day.

Getting a healthy season out of Nimmo hasn’t always been easy. Due to various injuries from 2016 to 2021, he only once topped 92 games and maxed out at 140. In 2022 and 2023, he finally showed what he could do with proper health. He got into at least 151 games in both of those campaigns and slashed a combined .274/.365/.450 for a 131 wRC+. Last year, despite the foot injury, he got into 151 contests but his production dipped to .224/.327/.399 and a 109 wRC+.

Nimmo turns 32 in March but his contract runs through 2030, so the club will obviously want to keep him healthy and productive for as long as possible. The fact that he’s trending towards Opening Day readiness is a good sign but the club will probably opt for playing things slow for long-term health if any speed bumps arise.

Minter, 31, was just signed a few days ago. His 2024 season was ended by left hip surgery in August. Regardless, the Mets liked him enough to give him a two-year, $22MM deal with an opt-out after year one. His recovery timeline in the wake of that procedure has been a little murky but he’s hoping to be ready for the start of the season as well.

“The goal is to be ready for Opening Day, hopefully,” Minter said. “With that being said, my hip does feel really good. I’m happy where I am. I don’t want to put a date on it. … The Mets are going to have their protocols. They want me to take it day by day. But for me, personally, my goal is to be ready close to Opening Day.”

Over the past five years, Minter has posted an earned run average of 2.85 over 267 appearances. He has struck out 30.1% of opponents while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. His contributions were more limited last year due to the hip injury but the Mets are clearly hoping he can be back to his old self once that’s fully in the rear-view mirror.

Minter, 31, has been a strong performer in recent years. However, there is at least some uncertainty due to his health. He went on the injured list twice in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in August.

It’s unclear exactly when Minter will be fully healthy again but the surgery doesn’t seem to have hurt his market. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox over the past couple of months and now has a strong pact with the Mets. Perhaps that indicates clubs aren’t too worried about his recovery from the hip procedure impacting him in 2025.

Just looking at Minter’s results, the robust interest makes plenty of sense. From 2020 to 2024, the lefty made 267 relief appearances, allowing 2.85 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. He was a key relief arm for Atlanta, who let him earn 16 saves and 92 holds in that time. Even while pitching through the hip problems in 2024, he managed to throw 34 1/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.

Despite the hip surgery, it was fair to expect Minter to be one of the most popular relief arms in this winter’s market. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $16MM pact but almost all pitchers have been outearning their projections this winter, with Minter no exception. He gets a $22MM guarantee and also an opt-out, meaning he will have the ability to become a free agent again next winter if he demonstrates his health and has a strong season.

The Mets are a sensible landing spot for Minter, as their bullpen is in a state of flux. At the end of the 2024 season, they saw Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Phil Maton become free agents.

The club also came into the winter particularly shorthanded in terms of left-handed relief. Raley was one such member on the 2024 club, though he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of May, well before he became a free agent. Jake Diekman was released during the season. Josh Walker was traded around the same time. Alex Young was non-tendered at the end of the year.

All of that left the Mets with Danny Young as their only southpaw reliever on the roster, so an addition made plenty of sense. They signed Génesis Cabrera to a minor league deal and have been connected to free agents like Tanner Scott and Tim Hill. Signing either Scott or Hill could still be an option but the lefty contingent of the Mets bullpen now looks much stronger with Minter in it. Per Mike Puma of The New York Post, the Mets are unlikely to continue pursuing Scott with Minter now on board.

For the Mets, perhaps this is yet another move away from their relationship with Pete Alonso. As recently as yesterday morning, it seemed possible that the Mets and Alonso would work something out. But reporting from yesterday afternoon indicated that the Mets didn’t want to have a prolonged staredown with Alonso. Since they had other players on their radar, they planned instead to move on and spread money around to various different players. In the past 24 hours, they have agreed to new deals with Jesse Winker and now Minter.

The deal with Minter pushed the club’s payroll and competitive balance tax number up to $297MM and $293MM respectively, in the eyes of RosterResource. Last year, those numbers were $336MM and $346MM. If they are willing to get to similar levels in 2025, they still have lots of space to work with. That could be enough room to bring back Alonso but the Mets might also look to make further bullpen upgrades.

They are already between the third and four tiers of the CBT, which are $281MM and $301MM this year. As a third-time payor, they will be facing a tax of 95% for any more money they add up to the fourth line and a 110% rate for spending beyond it. Since Steve Cohen became owner of the team, the tax has never really seemed to be any kind of obstacle for the Mets.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets had an agreement with Minter. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the two-year, $22MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the opt-out provision.

Minter has been linked to the Blue Jays, Rangers and Cubs in recent weeks. Texas has already made a handful of bullpen signings, including last night’s one-year deal with former Boston righty Chris Martin. The Jays and Cubs should still be involved in the relief market. During the season, Minter had expressed some interest in returning to the Braves, though it’s not clear how seriously Atlanta has pushed for a reunion.

The 31-year-old has been one of the game’s more reliable lefty setup arms during his career. Between 2020-23, he combined for a 2.89 earned run average while striking out more than 30% of opposing hitters in more than 200 innings. Minter’s platform year was a little more questionable. He still managed good numbers, turning in a 2.62 ERA with a solid 26.1% strikeout rate. Left hip issues limited him to 39 appearances, though. He underwent surgery that ended his season in the middle of August.

Minter could be ready early in the year, so the injury should not be too detrimental to his market. That said, it may limit him to two years when he seemed on track for a three-year pact earlier in 2024. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal.

The relief market has moved slowly. Boston’s $10.75MM deal with Aroldis Chapman is one of four eight-figure reliever contracts thus far. The Sox also brought in Justin Wilson on a one-year deal at a low cost ($2.25MM). Minter would complete a trifecta of new southpaws in Alex Cora’s late-inning mix.

Kahnle is a righty who generally fares better against left-handed hitters. That’s a reflection of how often he uses his changeup. Kahnle turned to the “offspeed” pitch more than 70% of the time last season. It’s tough to argue with the results, as he turned in a 2.11 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opponents across 42 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Kittredge, a righty who leans on his slider roughly half the time, is coming off a strong season for the Cardinals. The 34-year-old worked 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball with a league average 23.3% strikeout rate.

The news that Texas is interested in Fried comes from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. They confirm that re-signing Nathan Eovaldi remains the team’s primary goal but suggest the Rangers are considering Fried as one potential alternative. However, their interest seems to be casual, at least for now. After Corbin Burnes, Fried is arguably the top starting pitcher available in free agency. That means he’s going to command significantly more money than Eovaldi. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff predicted Fried would sign a six-year, $156MM deal; Eovaldi’s predicted contract was a two-year, $44MM pact. Thus, as the Rangers look to duck under the luxury tax threshold and continue to deal with TV revenue uncertainty, financial constraints could prevent them from signing any star free agents. In other words, it seems like the Rangers are keeping tabs on Fried, but a deal remains unlikely.

The bullpen is perhaps a bigger area of concern for Texas. The only four pitchers who threw more than 50 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2024 are all free agents: Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña. What’s more Josh Sborz is going to miss significant time again after undergoing shoulder surgery. President of baseball operations Chris Young has already made a couple of small additions, claiming Roansy Contreras off of waivers from the Angels and signing Luis Curvelo to a major league deal, but neither is the type of proven, high-leverage arm the Rangers desperately need. Ideally, the Rangers would be in the market for a bona fide closer like Tanner Scott or an All-Star talent like Jeff Hoffman. However, a lack of payroll flexibility could explain why they’re targeting a pair of bounce-back candidates instead.

Over the past five seasons, Minter has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and 3.04 SIERA in 243 innings of work for the Braves. While he only has 36 career saves, the southpaw has experience pitching late in games. He also has several years of playoff experience. In 25 postseason frames, he has a 2.88 ERA and 2.63 SIERA. The reason for hesitation when it comes to Minter, is that he spent two long stints on the injured list nursing a hip injury this past season. He ultimately needed surgery, and it’s not yet clear how soon he’ll be able to return. That said, a hip injury is far less worrisome than an arm-related issue, and Minter was highly durable from 2020-23. Only three relievers made more appearances in that time. Thus, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Minter is among the “most popular” left-handed relievers on the free agent market, linking him to the Braves, Cubs, and Rangers. He was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this offseason.

Loáisiga has not been nearly as durable as Minter throughout his career, but the upside is appealing. He was one of the top relievers in the game in 2021, putting up a 2.17 ERA and 3.01 SIERA in 70 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Unfortunately, various arm injuries have gotten in his way ever since. He dealt with shoulder inflammation in 2022, bone spurs in his elbow in 2023, and, most recently, he underwent an internal brace procedure in April 2024. The rehab timeline for an internal brace procedure is typically 10-12 months, which means Loáisiga could be back to full strength in time for Opening Day. That being the case, it’s not hard to see why he has so many suitors, including the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and now, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN, the Padres and Rangers. While it’s been a long time since Loáisiga was a reliable big league reliever, it’s easy to dream about the upside of his 98 mph sinker and lethal curveball. So, it comes as little surprise that he is expected to sign a major league deal this winter (per Castillo).

Minter, 31, is one of the winter’s more interesting free agent relievers. The southpaw broke out with the Braves during the 2020 season and has been one of the better lefty relief arms in baseball since then with a 2.85 ERA and a matching 2.84 FIP in 243 innings over the past half-decade. In that time, he’s struck out 30.1% of his opponents while walking 7.8%. Among lefty relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season, Minter’s 3.05 SIERA ranks third in the majors behind only Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers.

That track record would seemingly be enough to line him up for one of the more lucrative relief contracts of the offseason, but Minter’s free agency is complicated by a difficult platform season. In 2024, Minter managed a solid 2.62 ERA but saw his strikeout rate dip to just 26.1% while his FIP ballooned up to 4.45 due primarily to an increase in home runs allowed. More problematic for Minter than those steps backward in peripherals, however, was the season-ending hip surgery Minter underwent back in August. Recent reporting has indicated that it’s not yet clear whether Minter will be ready to pitch at the outset of the 2025 season, a reality that could cast a shadow over his free agency if interested teams believe he’s ticketed for a substantial early-season absence.

As for Finnegan, the 33-year-old has spent all five seasons of his big league career with the Nationals but was non-tendered by the club last month. After impressing in his 2020 rookie campaign with a 2.92 ERA in 25 innings, Finnegan stood as the club’s primary closer throughout their recent rebuild. He racked up 88 saves over the next four seasons, pitching to a 3.62 ERA that was 13% better than league average in 265 2/3 innings of work during that time despite a somewhat lackluster 4.28 FIP.

Despite his gaudy save totals, which includes a 38-for-43 record (88.4% conversion rate) in save situations this past season, Finnegan’s numbers cast him as more of a middle reliever than a true closer. He’s struck out just 23.3% of opponents over the last four years while walking 9.3%, and while his 47.5% career groundball rate is certainly above average it’s not exactly exceptional as Finnegan ranks just 22nd among relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season by the metric. In that same timeframe, Finnegan’s 3.86 SIERA is well below average for a reliever and ranks just 55th among 70 qualifying relievers.

With that being said, Finnegan’s somewhat middling numbers throughout his career could make him relatively affordable on the open market, and the Cubs’ hesitance in recent years to commit to pricey guarantees for relievers could lead them to be intrigued by the upside offered by a hurler who averaged 97.4 mph on his fastball last year and offers late-inning experience that could benefit a mostly young bullpen that currently features Porter Hodge as its top high leverage option after the righty posted a dominant rookie campaign in 2024. Minter, by contrast, figures to a land a healthier guarantee so long as his market isn’t depressed by the health question marks surrounding him. MLBTR predicted the lefty to land a two-year, $16MM guarantee as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where he ranked 34th.

While the Juan Soto pursuit has dominated the Jays-related headlines this winter, the club has been actively linked to many players, as has been the standard operating procedure for Ross Atkins during his time as Toronto’s GM.  This includes multiple relief arms, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi report that the Jays “have shown some level of interest” in Carlos Estevez, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter, and Paul Sewald.  ESPN’s Jorge Castillo adds that Toronto is also one of the many teams interested in Jonathan Loaisiga.

Davidi and BNS note that the Guardians have shown some interest in some of Toronto’s minor league prospects, leading to some speculation that the Jays could look to bring in local product Josh Naylor, who is known to be available in trade talks.  Speculatively, the Toronto/Cleveland connection might also be related to the Blue Jays’ bullpen search, as the Guards are very deep in relief pitching.

The sheer volume of names under consideration isn’t really all that unusual, considering how most teams take a broad view of the ever-shifting bullpen market.  As Davidi and Nicholson-Smith note, the Jays have rarely invested much in relief pitching during Atkins’ tenure, and most of the relievers listed would likely be available on shorter-term deals.  Turning to MLBTR’s ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, Estevez (22nd, projected for three-year, $27MM contract), Minter (34th, two years/$16MM), and Kittredge (40th, two years/$14MM) were the only ones to make the list.

Going beyond their usual comfort zone to sign Estevez might reflect the Blue Jays’ greater need for bullpen help, as non-tendering Romano left a big vacancy in the closer’s role.  Chad Green looks like the favorite for saves at the moment, but signing Estevez would push Green back to a setup job and create a clearer bullpen hierarchy.

Jansen, of course, is far and away the most established closer of the group, with 447 saves over his standout 15-year career.  Though Jansen is entering his age-37 season, he is coming off yet another strong performance in posting a 3.29 ERA and 27 saves over 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2024.

Sewald had seemingly established himself as a solid closer with the Mariners and then the Diamondbacks, and even got off to a hot start in 2024 before running into injuries and a very rough stretch that cost him his ninth-inning role in Arizona.  Better health and a change of scenery could very well spark a return to form for Sewald, making him perhaps a bit of an underrated candidate for teams in need of saves.

According to O’Brien, the club’s initial plans for the offseason were scuttled when they received worrisome medical updates regarding stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider as well as reliever Joe Jimenez. Neither Acuna nor Strider is expected to be ready for Opening Day as things stand, and O’Brien adds that both could be out of action “well into May.” That news, in conjunction with the loss of Jimenez to knee surgery for most or all of the 2025 campaign, left the Braves to look for ways to free up salary. Per O’Brien, the club likely wouldn’t have restructured the contracts of Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer nor declined the club option of veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud had these injuries not put additional pressure on the club to pursue help in the outfield, rotation, and bullpen.

Of those three areas of the roster, the outfield appears to be the most pressing for the club to address. O’Brien notes that the Braves may prefer to be extra cautious with Acuna next season in the aftermath of his second torn ACL in four seasons, particularly after he struggled (at least relative to his own elite standards) in 2022 after returning to the lineup as soon as possible. That’s led the club to pursue outfield help thanks to the relatively lackluster in-house alternatives of Eli White, Luke Williams and Carlos D. Rodriguez as options to pair with Jarred Kelenic and Michael Harris II on the grass until Acuna returns.

On the pitching side of things, however, the Braves seemingly have more comfort with their internal options. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale figures to be joined by Lopez and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach in the club’s Opening Day rotation for 2025, and the club has a large number of possible internal options to handle the other two rotation spots including Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, and Ian Anderson among others, but Anthopoulos suggested one surprising internal candidate for a rotation job as well: right-hander Grant Holmes.

The 28-year-old made his MLB debut for the Braves this past season and excelled in a swing role for the club with a 3.56 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work split between seven starts and 19 relief appearances. Given Holmes’s apparent comfort moving between the rotation and bullpen, he could prove to be a sensible choice to fill in for Strider in the club’s Opening Day rotation before moving into a relief role once the hard-throwing righty returns to action. Similarly, O’Brien notes that Anthopoulos expressed interest in using right-hander Daysbel Hernandez in a set-up role in 2025 to help make up for the loss of Jimenez. Hernandez pitched just 18 innings for Atlanta in 2024 across 16 appearances, but he made a strong impression in that limited time with a 2.50 ERA, a 35.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.11 FIP.

One other option to help make up for the loss of Jimenez that O’Brien notes could be on the table is a reunion with southpaw A.J. Minter. While O’Brien suggests that the club “might” re-sign Minter this winter, one potential wrinkle in bringing Minter back to help ease the loss of Jimenez is the fact that the lefty might also miss Opening Day following surgery. Minter underwent season-ending hip surgery back in August, and O’Brien notes that it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll be ready to pitch early in the 2025 season.

Even setting aside the potential implications Minter’s health could have on Atlanta’s interest in a reunion, his injury woes lingering into the season could substantially impact earning power this winter, as well. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal for Minter earlier this offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but that prediction came with the presumption that the southpaw would be ready for Opening Day in 2025. If Minter’s rehab from surgery leaves Opening Day in question for the lefty throughout the offseason, it would hardly be a surprise to see the 31-year-old settle for a one-year deal this winter in hopes of proving himself healthy and having a better chance at a more lucrative multi-year deal next year.

Minter’s year concludes with a 2.62 ERA across 34 1/3 innings. He fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate. That’s a solid strikeout and walk profile but a tick below the numbers he’d posted from 2022-23. Minter fanned more than 30% of his opponents in each of the previous two years, topping 60 innings in both seasons.

Hip discomfort has plagued Minter for a few months. He initially went on the IL in late May with inflammation. His return from that injury proved relatively short-lived and necessitated the year-ending surgery. It’s possible that marks the end of his Atlanta tenure. The former second-round pick will hit free agency during the upcoming offseason. He still has a shot at a multi-year deal, though that’s not the lock it had seemed earlier in the season.

Dylan Lee stepped into the bullpen in Minter’s place. He’s joined in the relief group by Grant Holmes, who moved back to the bullpen this week. Snitker announced before Tuesday’s game that the Braves were kicking Holmes to relief after they reinstated Reynaldo López from the injured list (X link via David O’Brien of the Athletic). The 28-year-old rookie had made four starts between late July and the middle of this month. He pitched fairly well, working to a 4.57 ERA with an impressive 28% strikeout rate in 21 2/3 innings.

There’s not any room for Holmes to maintain a spot in the rotation unless the Braves wanted to go to a six-man staff. Chris Sale, Max Fried, López, Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton all have spots secured. Holmes exhausted his minor league options while he was a prospect in the Oakland farm system. The Braves can’t send him to Triple-A without running him through waivers. Holmes has pitched well enough this season that he’d very likely be claimed, so the Braves will keep him in a multi-inning relief capacity. Holmes tossed two scoreless innings against Philadelphia on Tuesday and is up to a 3.45 ERA through 47 frames on the season.

That doesn’t leave much flexibility for any kind of roster maneuvering. Of Atlanta’s eight MLB relievers, only Lee still has options remaining. Schwellenbach is their only starter who can freely be sent down, although he’s pitching so well that the team has no reason to consider doing that. The 13-pitcher limit could eventually push the Braves to make a call on whether to continue carrying both Luke Jackson and Jesse Chavez in the middle innings.

Injuries have been an unfortunate theme for Atlanta throughout the season. That continued this week with Austin Riley suffering a hand fracture that’ll sideline him for well over a month. Urshela is the short-term answer at third base, though the Braves seem to be considering a contingency option in the minors. As Francys Romero reported (on X) earlier this week, Atlanta is giving Yuli Gurriel third base playing time at Triple-A Gwinnett. He had played exclusively first or second base for the Stripers until Riley’s injury; he has started the past two games at the hot corner.

Gurriel signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in April. He’s having a very strong season with Gwinnett, hitting .297/.378/.493 with 12 homers and a strong strikeout and walk profile. That has yet to get him back to the majors after well below-average seasons with the Astros and Marlins in 2022-23. The 40-year-old infielder hasn’t started an MLB game at third base since 2019, instead spending almost all of his time at first base in recent years.

8:20am: The Braves and Urshela have agreed to a deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

7:50am: The Braves are nearing a major league deal with third baseman Gio Urshela, per a report from The New York Post’s Joel Sherman this morning. Urshela was recently designated for assignment and released by the Tigers, who’ll be on the hook for the remainder of his $1.5MM salary. The Braves will only owe Urshela the prorated league minimum for the time he spends on the big league roster or injured list. Urshela is a client of Rep 1 Baseball.

The news comes just one day after Braves third baseman Austin Riley was diagnosed with a hand fracture that is expected to sideline him for between six and eight weeks. If that timeline holds, it will leave him out of action for at least the remainder of the regular season and the early portions of the postseason, though it’s feasible he could return to the field if Atlanta makes a deep enough run into the playoffs.

With utilityman Whit Merrifield already covering for the injured Ozzie Albies at second base, that seemingly left the club to rely on top infield prospect Nacho Alvarez Jr. and depth infielder Luke Williams to handle the hot corner down the stretch. With Urshela now in the fold, the club will add a veteran third baseman into the fold who could help raise the floor on their production at the position in Riley’s absence.

For Urshela, the deal represents an opportunity to get regular at-bats with a playoff contender down the stretch while also attempting to re-establish himself as a regular option following a disappointing stint in Detroit this year. Following a 2023 season where he was limited to just 62 games by a season-ending pelvic fracture, Urshela hit free agency and signed a one-year deal worth just $1.5MM with the Tigers back in February. At the time, it seemed to be a bargain for a player who had been a steady regular at third base for several years. It quickly turned sour, however, as Urshela delivered his worst season since establishing himself as a regular with the Yankees back in 2019.

The 32-year-old hit just .243/.286/.333 (73 wRC+) in 325 trips to the plate with the Tigers while splitting time between the infield corners. Defensive metrics are extremely mixed on Urshela’s defense at third, as the veteran has accumulated -17 Outs Above Average at the position since becoming a regular back in 2019. Brutal as that figure may seem, Defensive Runs Saved actually has Urshela as a plus defender at the hot corner over that same timeframe with a +4 figure overall. Still, even the most favorable views of Urshela’s defense leave it difficult to justify him as an everyday option if his hitting numbers remain where they were in Detroit.

Fortunately, there’s some reasons for optimism regarding the veteran’s future. His track record over the past half decade speaks for itself, as he entered the 2024 season as a solid .291/.335/.452 (115 wRC+) hitter since his 2019 breakout with New York. That’s the 16th-best figure among all qualified third baseman over that time frame. What’s more, Urshela’s .271 BABIP is by far the lowest of his career; he entered the 2024 season with a career .319 BABIP that had jumped to .334 since his breakout in 2019.

A return to form in that regard could help Urshela put up numbers closer to league average offensively. His batted ball data also suggests he’s in line for some positive regression. The 32-year-old’s .271 wOBA is a far cry from his .305 xwOBA, a figure that (while still below average) would put him roughly in line with his more palatable 2021 and 2023 seasons, where his offensive output was around 3% and 8% worse than league average (by wRC+). Even that level of production would make Urshela a solid fill-in at the hot corner for Atlanta, particularly if the club doesn’t want to push Alvarez into an everyday big league role in the middle of a pennant race at just 21 years old.

Atlanta placed the southpaw on the 15-day injured list on Monday. It was the second time this year that a left hip problem had shelved him. Minter missed a month between the end of May and beginning of July. He pitched for six weeks before the injury required another shut down. Minter visited a specialist this week and that examination evidently revealed he’ll need to undergo surgery.

If this does conclude his season, it might also mark the end his tenure in Atlanta. Minter will be a free agent for the first time in his career next offseason. The Braves haven’t been afraid to invest in their bullpen, so perhaps they’ll make an effort to retain him. They already have Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and (via affordable club option) Aaron Bummer under contract for next year. They’ll also need to make some decisions regarding their rotation and potentially look to upgrade on Orlando Arcia at shortstop.

A second-round pick in 2015, Minter has been one of the better setup options in the league over his career. He had a disastrous 2019 season but otherwise has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in every year. Minter has generally pitched in medium to high-leverage spots. He’s had another nice season when healthy, working to a 2.62 ERA across 34 1/3 frames. His 26.1% strikeout rate is down a bit from its 2022-23 level but remains a few points better than league average.

The Braves have Bummer and Dylan Lee as their two southpaws in the bullpen. Bummer has had a strong year after coming over from the White Sox in an offseason trade, striking out 28% of opponents with a 3.74 ERA. Lee has arguably been even better, working to a 1.96 mark while striking out nearly 27% of batters faced across 46 frames. That’s still a good duo, but losing Minter for the stretch run thins the middle innings mix at a time when Atlanta is clinging to a playoff spot. The Braves go into tonight’s matchup in San Francisco with a two-game cushion on the Mets for the final Wild Card position.

At this point, it’s unclear how serious Minter’s injury is or how long the club expects him to miss, but it’s perhaps noteworthy that this is his second IL stint for this issue this year. He landed on the IL due to left hip inflammation May 31, missing just over a month before being reinstated July 1. Per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Minter is still undergoing evaluation for his current status and the club isn’t sure if he’ll be able to return this season.

Despite the hip issue, he’s managed to post good results when on the mound, as he has thrown 34 1/3 innings with 2.62 earned runs allowed per nine. His 26.1% strikeout rate is a few ticks below his rate from the previous two seasons, but he’s also getting more ground balls.

There might be a bit of good luck in that ERA as he has a .222 batting average on balls in play and 94.2% strand rate, which are both on the fortunate side. But his 16.7% home run per fly ball ratio is essentially double his rate from the two preceding campaigns. FIP gives a pitcher blame/credit for home runs, so that metric has Minter at 4.46 this year, far worse than his ERA. But a metric like SIERA, which normalizes home run rate, is more kind and has Minter at 3.39. That’s still a noticeable gap from his ERA but it’s not far off from the 3.06 SIERA he had last year.

Regardless of how one feels about Minter’s stats this year, it’s a rough development for the Atlanta bullpen. The relief corps should still be in decent shape without him, as the club’s relievers have a collective 3.38 ERA on the year that trails only the Guardians and Brewers. But they’re in a place now where incremental differences might loom large. Their recent skid has dropped them to 61-56, barely clinging to the final National League Wild Card spot with the Mets just half a game back and several other teams within striking distance.

Manager Brian Snitker has been using Minter in key situations. Minter is second on the team in holds behind Joe Jiménez and his average leverage index is third behind Jiménez and closer Raisel Iglesias. Subtracting Minter will make it more challenging for Snitker to navigate the ends of tight games. Lee has strong numbers on the year, with a 2.00 ERA in 45 innings, but mostly in lower-leverage spots.

It also could be a rough development for Minter himself, as he’s an impending free agent. He has a strong career track record with a 3.28 ERA over his 384 appearances with a 29.3% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and 39.9% ground ball rate. But he’s already had one IL stint of over a month this year and another lengthy absence could tamp down his offseason contract offers. He’ll celebrate his 31st birthday on September 2.

Philadelphia’s outstanding 47-22 record also provides a bit more breathing room, as the Phillies have the National League’s best record and look like a lock to return to the playoffs.  Dombrowski naturally expected his team to be good, but admitted that a .681 win percentage even exceeded his expectations, especially considering that the Phils have been without Trea Turner for the majority of the season.  Turner’s impending return is an upgrade on its own, and in terms of other possible trade deadline additions, Dombrowski said it’s “way, way, way, way, way too early” to start accessing how the market might take shape.  Dombrowski cited bullpen depth as one possible area to explore, and doesn’t seem to think the Phillies will pursue a “we’re going to trade three top prospects” type of blockbuster trade.  The PBO is also cognizant of how adding and subtracting from the roster might impact team chemistry, as obviously Dombrowski doesn’t want to disrupt what has been a winning formula for the Phillies to date.

More from around the NL East…

• The Nationals placed Joey Gallo on the 10-day IL earlier this week, and manager Davey Martinez provided reporters (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post) yesterday with some unfortunate context, as Gallo’s left hamstring strain is “significant.”  No more specifics were given about the severity of the strain or how long exactly the Nats expect Gallo to be sidelined, yet it would seem unlikely that he would be back in action before the All-Star break.  Gallo already missed three weeks earlier this season recovering from an AC joint sprain his left shoulder, and this latest injury compounds what has been a miserable 2024 campaign for the veteran.  After signing a one-year, $5MM free agent deal with Washington this past winter, Gallo has hit only .164/.285/.321 over 165 plate appearances, and striking out 71 times.
• A.J. Minter is likely to throw a bullpen session soon, Braves manager Brian Snitker told MLB.com and other media, as the left-hander continues to recover from inflammation in his left hip.  It would appear that Minter is just about on track with the one-month timeline initially projected for his recovery, as he has started throwing side sessions to warm up his arm.  A longtime staple of the Atlanta bullpen, Minter had a 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 innings this season before hitting the IL.

Minter, 30, has been one of the Braves’ steadiest relievers over the past seven-plus seasons. With the exception of an anomalous 7.06 ERA in 29 1/3 innings during 2019’s juiced-ball season, he’s kept his ERA to 3.78 or better each season and worked to an overall 3.32 mark through 335 2/3 MLB frames.

Minter has been strong again this season, working to a 2.95 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 40.4% ground-ball rate. His 95.2 mph average fastball is a career-low, though it’s only a half-mile less than his average fastball from a 2020 season that saw him post a 0.83 ERA in 21 2/3 frames. The left-hander is slated to become a free agent at season’s end and is earning a $6.215MM salary in 2024.

The team hasn’t yet provided an expected timetable for Minter’s return, but his absence is a notable one, given his track record. Minter’s seven holds trail only Joe Jimenez (10) for the team lead. With the left-hander now sidelined for at least a couple weeks, right-hander Pierce Johnson could see more leverage work. Fellow southpaws Dylan Lee and Tyler Matzek could also get some extra late-inning opportunities.

As for Wendle, his stay with the Braves organization could wind up proving excessively brief. The Mets released him earlier this month, and Wendle quickly latched on with Atlanta on a new big league deal. That deal was signed on May 24, but Wendle was designated just three days later — before Wendle even got into a game with the Braves.

A versatile utilityman known for his quality glovework and typically strong bat-to-ball skills, Wendle has seen his offensive production take a significant downturn over the past three seasons. He hit just .222/.243/.250 in 37 plate appearances as a Met earlier this year and carries an anemic .237/.273/.331 line (66 wRC+) in 726 plate appearances dating back to the 2022 campaign. If Wendle accepts the outright assignment, he’ll remain with the Braves as a depth option, but he can also choose to explore opportunities with other clubs if he prefers.

“No,” Minter said. “I mean, obviously, who wouldn’t want to play in Atlanta? Atlanta, in my opinion, right now it’s the best organization in baseball. Obviously, I would love to stay in Atlanta. Who wouldn’t? But yeah, that’s something that’s kind of out of my control at the moment. Obviously, you’ve gotta come in here and treat it like it’s my last day. I’m gonna come in here and do everything I can for this organization, and pitch to the best of my ability and go out there and try to win a World Series. I’m going to put it into the organization’s hands (in terms of) what they want to do. Just got to go out there and show them what I’m made of.”

Minter, 30, has somewhat quietly been a very effective reliever over the past four years. He’s tossed 208 2/3 innings in that time with a 2.89 ERA. He has struck out 30.7% of batters faced while walking just 7.8% of them. He’s also kept 40.3% of balls in play on the ground. He’s done that while moving into high-leverage spots, having earned 15 saves and 83 holds in that time. He’s also been a key part of the club in the postseason, throwing 12 playoff innings during their 2021 title run. Raisel Iglesias is the club’s closer but Minter projects as the top lefty, with Tyler Matzek and Aaron Bummer also in the mix.

Atlanta hasn’t been terribly shy about spending on relief pitching recently. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, since Alex Anthopoulos was hired in November of 2017 to lead the baseball operations department, the club has given eight-figure deals to Will Smith, Joe Jiménez, Kenley Jansen, Pierce Johnson, Chris Martin and Collin McHugh. There’s also Reynaldo López, though he may wind up in the starting rotation this year. Atlanta also acquired Iglesias from the Angels with three-plus years remaining on his four-year $58MM deal.

Minter would be in line for a nice deal himself if he continues pitching well this year. He’s in his final season of club control and agreed to a $6.22MM salary with the club in order to avoid arbitration. The club could keep him around by putting some money down on the table, as they did with Johnson and Jiménez. Both of those pitchers were slated for free agency at the end of 2023 but Johnson got a two-year, $14.25MM extension in October and Jiménez a three-year, $26MM deal in early November, the day after the World Series ended but before free agency officially began.

If no deal is worked out and Minter signs elsewhere in free agency next winter, it will be his first time in another organization. He was selected by Atlanta in the 2015 draft, going 75th overall, and has been with the club ever since.