It’s a relatively low-cost addition to the back of the rotation. Heaney has been a capable fourth or fifth starter in Texas over the last two seasons. He turned in a 4.15 ERA across 147 1/3 innings two seasons ago. Last year, he pitched to a 4.28 mark while ranking second on the team with 160 innings. Heaney took the ball 66 times for the Rangers and allowed 4.22 earned runs per nine over 307 1/3 frames.

The 33-year-old southpaw had a solid if unspectacular strikeout and walk profile. Heaney has fanned around 23-24% of opposing hitters in each of the past two seasons. After running a career-high 9.4% walk rate in ’23, he cut the free passes to a personal-low 5.9% clip last year. His 12% swinging strike rate was a little better than average.

Heaney has long had the ability to miss bats. Last season’s 22.9% strikeout rate, while slightly above the 22% league average for starting pitchers, was Heaney’s lowest mark in a decade. He has never really been a flamethrower. Heaney’s fastball sat in the 92-93 MPH range during his best seasons. It was down slightly to 91.5 MPH on average last year. The pitch has always had good life that allows it to play above its velocity as a swing-and-miss offering.

Despite the impressive strikeout rates, Heaney owns a 4.45 ERA in more than 1000 career innings. As a fly-ball pitcher without huge velocity, he’s quite susceptible to home runs. Heaney has allowed 1.54 homers per nine innings in his career, while he surrendered 1.29 longballs per nine last year. The Pirates hope that their park can mitigate some of that. According to Statcast’s park factors, only Oracle Park and the Oakland Coliseum have played less favorably for home runs over the past three seasons than PNC Park. Pittsburgh’s home field has been the toughest venue for right-handed power hitters, in particular, so there aren’t many more sensible landing spots for a fly-ball lefty pitcher.

Pittsburgh has a loaded top three in their rotation: Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. Heaney projects as the fourth starter. Bailey Falter, who has a similar profile as a soft-tossing lefty, is the favorite for the fifth spot. The Bucs thinned their rotation depth when they included Luis Ortiz in the return for first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Depth options on the 40-man roster include Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows and Johan Oviedo (the latter of whom will return after missing the ’24 season rehabbing Tommy John surgery). Prospects Bubba Chandler and Tom Harrington have reached Triple-A and should make their debuts at some point in 2025.

This is Pittsburgh’s sixth major league free agent pickup of the offseason. They’ve all been one-year commitments worth fewer than $6MM. They brought back Andrew McCutchen on another $5MM guarantee and added Tommy Pham ($4MM), Caleb Ferguson ($3MM), Adam Frazier ($1.5MM) and Tim Mayza ($1.15MM). Pittsburgh’s player payroll now sits around $88MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s essentially where they ended last season. Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects the Pirates for the fifth-lowest payroll in MLB.

Heaney was one of the few remaining free agent starters who was sure to find a big league deal. Jose Quintana and Kyle Gibson are the best unsigned options for teams looking to deepen their rotation.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Pirates and Heaney were nearing a deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed the agreement. Alden González of ESPN had it as a one-year deal at $5MM with incentives. Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the guarantee was $5.25MM. Image courtesy of Imagn.

According to Murray, the Pirates offered Quintana a stronger guarantee than the sum which they eventually agreed to pay Heaney. Quintana declined the offer. It’s not clear what kind of contract the 36-year-old southpaw is seeking. It’s unlikely that Pittsburgh would circle back after landing Heaney. Quintana and Kyle Gibson are the top two unsigned starting pitchers.

Quintana spent the first half of the 2022 season in Pittsburgh. He’d signed a $2MM deal as a buy-low free agent with a then-rebuilding Bucs club. The Pirates hit on the common hope for rebuilding teams of turning a low-cost free agent pickup into a midseason trade chip. Quintana turned in a 3.50 ERA across 20 starts in black and gold. The Bucs flipped him to the Cardinals alongside reliever Chris Stratton for righty Johan Oviedo and minor league first baseman Malcom Nuñez. Oviedo lost last season to Tommy John surgery but could find himself at the back of Derek Shelton’s starting staff this year.

A strong finish in St. Louis positioned Quintana much more strongly for his return to the market. He landed a two-year, $26MM guarantee from the Mets over the 2022-23 offseason. It turned out to be a good investment on New York’s part. While he missed a good chunk of the ’23 season, Quintana was a key rotation piece last year. He fired 170 1/3 frames of 3.75 ERA ball. He chipped in another 14 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball in the postseason — including six scoreless in a winner-take-all Game 3 against Milwaukee in the Wild Card series.

Effective as Quintana was last year, the Mets haven’t seemed eager to bring him back. The New York Post’s Mike Puma reported shortly after the Frankie Montas injury that the Mets hadn’t reciprocated the veteran lefty’s eagerness for a reunion. Francys Romero suggested yesterday that the Mets, Padres and Rangers could show interest. The Padres have already added Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart to the back of their rotation. The Rangers seem unlikely to seriously pursue Quintana unless they first offload salary in a trade, as they’re projected within $6MM of the luxury tax threshold. The Post’s Jon Heyman wrote this evening that the Mets have “limited” interest in Quintana because of concerns about his underlying numbers.

That’s presumably mostly about his lack of swing-and-miss. Quintana posted an 18.8% strikeout rate in consecutive seasons. He generated swinging strikes on only 8.5% of his offerings last year. It’s the third consecutive year in which Quintana succeeded despite middling whiff rates. He’s a quality strike-thrower who got grounders at a solid 47.4% clip and has rattled off a trio of consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings.

Sauerbeck was a Cincinnati native who attended Miami University in Ohio. The Mets selected him in the 23rd round of the 1994 draft. Sauerbeck pitched four years in the New York system. They lost him to the Pirates in the ’98 Rule 5 draft. The 6’3″ southpaw would spend the majority of his career in Pittsburgh.

As a rookie, Sauerbeck fired 67 2/3 innings with an even 2.00 earned run average. He tossed a career-high 75 2/3 frames the following season, posting a 4.04 ERA. He struggled in ’01 but rebounded with arguably his best season the year after that. Sauerbeck pitched to a 2.30 ERA across 62 2/3 innings while striking out nearly 28% of opposing hitters.

Pittsburgh dealt Sauerbeck to the Red Sox at the ’03 trade deadline. While he struggled down the stretch in Boston, the deal allowed him to pitch in the postseason for the only time. He made one appearance in that year’s ALCS loss to the Yankees. Sauerbeck missed the following season to injury. He concluded his career with brief stints in Cleveland and Oakland.

Over parts of seven seasons, Sauerbeck pitched to a 3.82 ERA. He recorded 20 wins, struck out 389 hitters, and finished 98 games. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, loved ones, former teammates and friends.

Reynolds has spent his entire career in the outfield, playing all three spots, but the first base rumors started late last year. Back in September, manager Derek Shelton told Hiles that Reynolds had been talking about playing first for years and had recently got a first baseman’s glove.

The Pirates acquired Spencer Horwitz this offseason and he seemed to be slated to be the club’s regular first baseman. However, it was recently revealed that he has undergone wrist surgery and will be sidelined for six to eight weeks. That means the Bucs will need to find alternative solutions there, at least for the beginning of the season.

Despite Reynolds having an interest in the position, it’s understandable that the Bucs don’t want to put him there right now, as it would just further thin out an outfield that already has some questions. Center field is going to be manned by former shortstop Oneil Cruz, who only has 195 innings of experience at his new position. It seems like the favorite for left field is Tommy Pham, who is about to turn 37 years and has has an up-and-down career of late.

Moving Reynolds in to take first would leave a hole on the grass to be filled by a clump of guys including Joshua Palacios, Adam Frazier, Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae. Next to Cruz and Pham, that doesn’t have the making of a strong group.

Moving from left to right is somewhat notable for Reynolds, as right field is the outfield position he’s played the least. He was primarily a center fielder earlier in his career before moving to left field in the past two years. He does have 398 innings in right, though that’s far less than the 3,062 1/3 frames he’s logged in left.

Metrics are divided on his work in left, as he has four Defensive Runs Saved but -12 Outs Above Average. His sample of work in right is a pretty small sample and tough to draw conclusions from, though he has 75th percentile arm strength and right field is smaller at PNC Park, so perhaps it’s a good move for him.

The Bucs will still have to figure out what to do at first base until Horwitz is back. Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review recently took a look at some of the options, mentioning Jared Triolo, Darick Hall, Matt Gorski, Malcom Nuñez and Suwinski as possibilities.

Triolo just won a Gold Glove for the utility position in the National League last year, spending time at all four infield positions and right field. The larger question would be his bat, since he has a line of .242/.325/.341 in his big league career so far. Hall isn’t on the roster and has minimal big league experience but a big .253/.342/.458 line in his Triple-A career. Gorski isn’t on the roster either and hasn’t made it to the show yet but he had a nice line of .257/.319/.522 in Triple-A last year. Nuñez also has no major league experience and isn’t on the roster. He’s also coming off a poor .250/.310/.365 showing in Triple-A last year.

Suwinski has only played the outfield in his career but there’s potential upside with his bat. Over 2022 and 2023, he hit 45 homers for the Bucs and drew walks at a 12.8% clip. His 31.6% strikeout rate was a problem but the power and on-base abilities made him a productive hitter. Unfortunately, he had a dismal 2024, slashing just .182/.264/.324 and struggling in the minors as well. The first base opening provides a path for him to earn back some playing time but his bat will obviously have to rebound for that to be a realistic possibility. Per Gorman, the Bucs haven’t approached him about playing first but Shelton isn’t opposed to the idea, while Suwinski is open to the switch in order to improve his versatility.

FEBRUARY 6: The Pirates and outfielder Tommy Pham are in agreement on a one-year, $4MM contract, per Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com adds, slightly more specifically, that Pham is guaranteed $4.025MM. The Vayner client can earn an additional $250K via incentives. Pittsburgh has a full 40-man roster already and will need to make a corresponding transaction to accommodate their latest signing.

Pham, 37 next month, split the 2024 season between the White Sox, Royals and Cardinals (his second stint with the team that originally drafted him). He’s suited up for nine teams in his 11-year big league career, including seven teams in the past three years alone, as he’s settled into a journeyman role player signing a series of affordable one-year deals that frequently render him a trade chip. The Pirates make an even ten teams as Pham heads into his 12th big league season.

Pham hit well for the White Sox last season, slashing .266/.330/.380 in 297 plate appearances before heading to the Cards as part of the three-team Tommy Edman/Erick Fedde/Michael Kopech swap between the Sox, Cardinals and Dodgers. His return to St. Louis sparked an immediate feel-good moment, as Pham belted a pinch-hit grand slam in his first plate appearance wearing Cardinal red since 2018. He followed that up with three multi-hit performances in his next four games and went on to pop his second Cardinals homer just a few days later. Through eight games back with his original club, he posted a Herculean .379/.400/.759 slash and looked to be just the jolt the lineup had needed.

The good vibes didn’t last, however. Pham fell into a deep slump that saw him go 3-for-39 as the Cardinals faded from contention. He was placed on waivers in late August and claimed by the Royals, who plugged Pham in frequently as they pushed toward their eventual postseason berth. He didn’t hit well in Kansas City overall but had a few big hits, including a three-run homer against the division-leading Guardians that proved to be a game winner. Overall, he finished out the season at .248/.305/.368 in 478 plate appearances.

Over the past four seasons, Pham has produced offense almost exactly in line with the league average. He’s a .242/.322/.391 hitter (98 wRC+) with 57 home runs, 94 doubles, nine triples, 51 steals, a 10.1% walk rate and a 23.7% strikeout rate in that stretch. He’s been a bit better against lefties (.238/.328/.413) than righties (.243/.319/.383) but has generally held his own in the batter’s box regardless of opponents’ handedness. He did see a notable dip in batted-ball quality (albeit with still-strong marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate) as well as a notable dip in walk rate (down to 7.3%).

Results-wise, Pham’s 2024 output doesn’t look all that different from former Pirate Connor Joe, whom the Bucs non-tendered earlier this winter. He’d been projected for a $3.2MM salary. Like Pham, Joe is a righty-hitting corner bat who’s provided almost exactly average offense in recent years. He’s slashed .238/.330/.396 in 888 plate appearances from 2023-24. Pham provides more speed and a more natural outfield glove (Joe split his time between first base and the outfield corners.) Pham does have far better quality of contact, so perhaps that made the Pirates a bit more bullish on his outlook than the comparably priced Joe, but it’s nonetheless quite arguable that this is a lateral move.

With the Bucs, Pham can be expected to play frequently in a corner, perhaps forming a de facto platoon with lefty-hitting Joshua Palacios or Jack Suwinski. Both struggled against lefties in 2024, with Suwinski also struggling so much versus righties that he was optioned to Triple-A at multiple points. Given that neither is established as a consistent big league presence, it’s possible that Pham simply emerges as a regular alongside Bryan Reynolds and center fielder Oneil Cruz.

The Pham signing isn’t especially exciting but is emblematic of the Pirates’ free agent approach under owner Bob Nutting, who is staunchly against taking virtually any risk on the open market. The Pirates have never given a free agent more than Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39MM deal more than a decade ago. Russell Martin’s two-year, $17MM pact (also more than a decade ago) is the largest free agent position-player signing the team has issued.

Under general manager Ben Cherington’s watch, the Pirates have never signed a free agent to a multi-year deal. Aroldis Chapman’s $10.75MM pact last winter is both the largest signing for Cherington and the lone time Nutting has authorize an eight-figure free agent salary in the current front office’s tenure. The Bucs have spent more on extensions for Bryan Reynolds (seven years, $100MM in new money) and Mitch Keller (four years, $71.6MM in new money) but there has been no appetite for any meaningful risk when it comes to open-market spending.

On paper anyhow, the Pirates looked well positioned to dip into a solid crop of free agent first basemen and/or corner outfield bats as they looked to beef up a lineup that generally lacked punch in 2024. They’ve instead brought in a new first baseman via trade (Spencer Horwitz) and signed veteran role players Pham, Adam Frazier and Andrew McCutchen, with short-term deals to match on the pitching side (Tim Mayza, Caleb Ferguson). The Pirates’ hope seems to be that a young rotation anchored by Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Keller can make further strides in 2024, with rebounds and/or breakouts from Horwitz, Cruz, Suwinski, Nick Gonzales and other young bats (Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Billy Cook) can spur a more productive offense.

That’s a big bet to make, when the first full season of Skenes/Jones dovetails with the Cardinals taking a step back and the Brewers seemingly unable to add to their payroll whatsoever this winter. The Pham signing pushes Pittsburgh’s payroll to $83MM, per RosterResource, a few million shy of last year’s $87MM mark. The Pirates haven’t run a $90MM payroll since 2017.

Vogelbach played parts of nine seasons in the majors. The lefty-hitting first baseman/designated hitter earned an All-Star nod with the Mariners amidst a 30-homer showing in 2019. That was his best full season until 2022. Vogelbach signed a one-year free agent deal with Pittsburgh that came with a modest $1MM base salary. It was a shrewd pickup, as he hit .228/.338/.430 over 75 games. The Bucs moved him early in trade season in a swap for reliever Colin Holderman, who projects as one of their better leverage arms this season.

After landing in Queens, Vogelbach hit .255/.393/.436 for the stretch run. He played well enough for New York to bring him back for the ’23 season, though his numbers dropped to a pedestrian .233/.339/.404 slash. Vogelbach appeared in 31 games early last year for the Blue Jays in what appears to be his final major league action.

If he is officially retiring, he’ll do so with a .219/.340/.405 batting line over 602 big league contests. Vogelbach hit 81 homers and drove in 246 runs while suiting up for five teams. He clearly made a strong impression on the Pittsburgh front office and coaching staff during his few months there as a player. MLBTR sends our best wishes to Vogelbach on the next stage of his career.

February 11: Pirates first baseman Spencer Horwitz will miss time in Spring Training because of a right wrist injury, report Andrew Destin and Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. While specifics on the injury are unclear, Destin and Hiles write that Horwitz underwent surgery at some point and remains in a cast.

It’s an alarming start for the Bucs as camp gets underway. Pittsburgh acquired the 27-year-old Horwitz at the Winter Meetings in what amounted to a de facto three-team trade involving the Blue Jays and Guardians. They sent back-end starter Luis Ortiz and a pair of pitching prospects to Cleveland for Horwitz, whom the Guards had acquired from Toronto hours before in the Andrés Giménez deal.

Without a timetable on the injury, it’s possible he’ll still be available on Opening Day. Yet it’s clearly not an ideal beginning to his Bucs tenure. Horwitz is the favorite for the first base job once he’s healthy. The Pirates are betting on his minor league numbers and relatively small-sample production in the big leagues. Horwitz had an impressive .265/.357/.433 showing across 381 MLB plate appearances last year. He connected on 12 homers while showing strong strike zone awareness. The lefty hitter walked at an 11% clip while striking out just 18.4% of the time.

Plate discipline has been Horwitz’s calling card throughout his career. He has posted excellent minor league numbers, including a .316/.433/.471 slash over parts of three Triple-A seasons. The statistical profile is robust, but most scouting reports have been less bullish on Horwitz’s bat translating against big league pitching over the long haul. He’s a middling defender who fits best at first base, though he logged nearly 300 innings at second base for Toronto last season. There’s a lot of pressure on the bat if he’s to be an average or better regular at first base. Horwitz doesn’t have huge raw power. Last year’s 16 combined homers between Triple-A and MLB represented a career high.

Pittsburgh got very little offense from the position last season. Their first basemen hit .230/.295/.380, landing in the bottom third of MLB in all three categories. That was almost entirely on the Rowdy Tellez/Connor Joe platoon. The Bucs parted ways with both players. Aside from Horwitz, they haven’t made any notable additions there.

Should Horwitz begin the season on the injured list, 26-year-old Billy Cook is probably the top in-house option. He hit .224 with 19 strikeouts and zero walks in his first 16 major league games late last season. The righty-hitting Cook posted a solid .275/.375/.474 showing in the upper minors between the Baltimore and Pittsburgh systems. Baseball America ranked Cook the #12 prospect in the Bucs system this winter, writing that he has decent power and athleticism but concerns about his pure hitting ability.

The Pirates already planned to get Bryan Reynolds work at first base this spring. That could take on added urgency now, though it’s unlikely that the Bucs would move him to the position on an everyday basis. Pittsburgh got almost nothing out of their right fielders last season. They’ve agreed to terms with Tommy Pham on a $4MM deal to raise the floor at that position, but the outfield would again become a significant concern if Reynolds moved to first base.

There are a few unsigned first basemen who are still available. Justin Turner and Anthony Rizzo seem likely to secure big league deals. Mark Canha might get an MLB contract as well, while Yuli Gurriel and José Abreu are potential minor league options. Whether the Bucs expect Horwitz to miss time in the regular season could impact their decision to potentially bring in a veteran on at least a minor league contract. Former Phillies first baseman Darick Hall will be in camp as a non-roster invitee. Tomorrow is report day for pitchers and catchers, so the team may provide an update on Horwitz’s injury in the coming days.

Williams has appeared in 83 games over the past two seasons. Pittsburgh acquired the former supplemental first-round pick from the Rays in a swap for reliever Robert Stephenson in 2023. The Bucs called him up not too long after. They’ve given Williams 207 plate appearances within the past couple seasons. He hasn’t made an impact at the plate, hitting .202/.257/.271 with no home runs.

The offensive upside has been a longstanding question. Prospect evaluators have praised his defense at both middle infield positions. Williams has shown solid strike zone awareness in the minor leagues, but he has never shown much power. He has 27 homers in nearly 1300 minor league plate appearances. His batted ball metrics at both the MLB and Triple-A levels have been middling, though his contact skills have translated to a solid .299/.376/.447 line over 367 Triple-A plate appearances.

This is the first time that Williams has been outrighted. He does not have the right to decline the assignment in favor of free agency. He’ll stick with the Bucs without occupying a 40-man spot and will get a non-roster invitation to Spring Training later this month.

It was another down season for the Midwest’s NL teams, as they sent just one club to the postseason and were not represented in the NLDS for the third consecutive year. Three of the division’s teams haven’t made it to the postseason at all in a 162-game season this decade, and the pressure is on for those clubs to start winning again while the two that have found more recent success try to keep their windows open. Which team has done the most to set themselves up for success this winter? Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Milwaukee Brewers

As is typical for Milwaukee, this offseason has seemingly been about balancing the club’s present against their future. The loss of star shortstop Willy Adames was an expected but nonetheless tough blow for the Brewers, and it spurred them to complete their lone major move of the offseason back in December. With a hole on the infield after losing Adames, Milwaukee traded longtime relief ace Devin Williams to the Yankees ahead of his final year of team control. In return, they added big league ready infielder Caleb Durbin as well as southpaw Nestor Cortes.

Cortes, also in his final year of team control, appears poised to join an impressive prospective playoff rotation in Milwaukee alongside Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Durbin, meanwhile, will turn 25 later this month and has yet to make his big league debut but hit quite well both at Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League. He could help solidify the club’s infield situation as soon as Opening Day. Outside of those additions, however, the Brewers have been extremely quiet: one-year pacts with depth arms Grant Wolfram and Elvin Rodriguez are the only two major league free agent signings they’ve made this winter.

St. Louis Cardinals

There isn’t much to say about the Cardinals’ offseason, as the club’s focus has been entirely consumed by their as-of-yet unsuccessful attempts to move on from veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. That’s led the club to make zero big league free agent signings and trade for zero established MLB players, meaning the only roster changes of note to this point in the winter for St. Louis have been the losses of free agents like Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge. Off the field, the biggest move of the Cardinals’ offseason to this point has been to announce the day the 2024 campaign ended that Chaim Bloom will take over for John Mozeliak as president of baseball operations following the 2025 season.

Chicago Cubs

It’s been a busy offseason for the Cubs. Most notably, they swung perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason when they acquired star outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros, though it cost them All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and young starter Hayden Wesneski from their big league roster in order to do so and they subsequently had to deal Cody Bellinger to the Yankees to make room for Tucker in the lineup. Paredes has not been replaced in free agency or via trade to this point, with that hole seemingly set to be addressed internally by top prospect Matt Shaw. A pair of solid bench moves round out the club’s activity on the positional side. Carson Kelly should help to improve things at catcher and the addition of Jon Berti could help make up for the loss of production on the bench created by the decision to non-tender Mike Tauchman.

The biggest reported goal of the Cubs’ offseason was to upgrade the pitching staff, but those additions have been far more modest as compared to Tucker. It’s not as flashy as the club’s reported interest in players like Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Tanner Scott may have suggested, but Matthew Boyd figures to be an upgrade over Kyle Hendricks in the rotation and Ryan Pressly should solidify things in the ninth inning after the club acquired him in a separate trade with Houston. Beyond those two more significant names, the club has added depth in the form of swing men Colin Rea and Cody Poteet as well as southpaw Caleb Thielbar.

Cincinnati Reds

Following a mixed bag of a 2024 season where Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene established themselves as star-caliber players but the rest of the roster largely struggled with injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Reds have been quite busy in hopes of turning things around for 2025. They kicked off the winter by adding Terry Francona as their new manager, and traded Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer to land Brady Singer from the Royals not long afterwards. They also retained Nick Martinez (who accepted their Qualifying Offer) and brought back veteran lefty Wade Miley on a non-guaranteed deal to further deepen the rotation.

The only guaranteed free agent signing the club has made was signing non-tendered outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year deal, but Hays is joined by a number of trade acquisitions even beyond Singer. The Reds acquired Jose Trevino from the Yankees in order to pair with Tyler Stephenson behind the plate, and Gavin Lux was brought in to help replace India’s production in the lineup. Rounding out the club’s notable trade acquisitions this winter is southpaw Taylor Rogers, who comes over from the Giants to join Alexis Diaz and Emilio Pagan at the back of Cincinnati’s bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates’ biggest move of the offseason was its first one of significance, as the club traded right-hander Luis Ortiz to the Guardians alongside a pair of prospects in order to land infielder Spencer Horwitz, who figures to serve as the club’s everyday first baseman this year. In addition to adding Horwitz, the Pirates have retooled their bullpen following the departure of Aroldis Chapman in free agency by signing southpaws Tim Mayza and Caleb Ferguson while also working out minor trades for Chase Shugart and Brett de Geus. Reports have indicated that Ferguson will stretch out during Spring Training and could be a candidate to start, but the club has otherwise not added to a rotation that remains a strength even after losing Ortiz.

On the positional side of things, Horwitz is joined by the additions of Adam Frazier in free agency and Enmanuel Valdez via trade. Both Frazier and Valdez figure to help shore up second base for the club while adding some left-handed options to the club’s predominantly right-handed bench mix. Veteran and longtime franchise face Andrew McCutchen also re-upped with the Pirates on his third consecutive one-year deal as he plays out the twilight of his career as a veteran leader on a young Pirates team. For all the club’s additions this winter, however, right field remains a major question mark after the club non-tendered Bryan De La Cruz without replacing him to this point in the winter.

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The 2024-25 offseason has been one defined almost entirely by major trades for the NL Central’s five clubs, with four of the five clubs having worked out at least one major swap and the fifth still hard at work attempting to do the same. The Cubs, Pirates, and Reds have all supplemented those trades with notable but relatively modest free agent signings as they attempt to claw their way back into playoff contention, and Cincinnati also added a likely future Hall of Famer to the dugout in the manager’s chair to help guide their young ballclub. The Brewers and Cardinals have been quieter by comparison, with Milwaukee largely standing pat outside of the Williams trade while the Cardinals have been paralyzed by their efforts to trade Arenado but have opened up playing time for a number of notable young players like Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera.

Of the five NL Central clubs, which one has had the strongest offseason so far? Have your say in the poll below:

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephen underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

Williams, 26 in March, has been with the Pirates for about a year and a half. The Bucs traded Robert Stephenson to the Rays in June of 2023, getting Williams in return and adding him to their 40-man roster in July. He has appeared in 83 big leagues games and stepped to the plate 208 times, producing a tepid batting line of .202/.257/.271. His 5.8% walk rate and 27.4% strikeout rate have both been subpar.

As one would expect, his minor league production has been better than that. Over the past three years, he received 934 plate appearances on the farm. His 11.1% walk rate and 18.5% strikeout rate in that span are both strong numbers. His combined batting line of .268/.357/.413 translated to a 107 wRC+. He spent significant time at both middle infield positions, as well as some time at third base.

Unfortunately, those solid minor league numbers weren’t enough to keep his roster spot with the Pirates. Perhaps that’s due to the lack of major league impact or a somewhat crowded cluster of middle infield options in Pittsburgh. Even with moving Oneil Cruz to center field, the Bucs have Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales, Nick Yorke, Enmanuel Valdéz, Adam Frazier, Tsung-Che Cheng and Liover Peguero as viable middle infielders on the 40-man. Even first baseman Spencer Horwitz can play second base a bit. Prospect Termarr Johnson isn’t yet on the roster but is getting close to the majors regardless.

The Bucs will now have at most a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next for Williams, whether that’s a trade or some fate on waivers. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any trade possibilities would need to be explored in the next five days. Williams still has options and could appeal to clubs looking for infield depth.

Mayza, who turned 33 a few weeks ago, was a 12th round pick of the Blue Jays in 2013. He spent over a decade in the Toronto organization. The southpaw got to the big leagues in 2017 and pitched in parts of seven seasons. He had a quietly strong run between 2021-23, combining for a 2.67 earned run average while striking out nearly a quarter of opposing hitters through 155 innings. Mayza limited same-handed batters to a .203/.238/.273 slash in 270 plate appearances over that stretch. He kept the ball on the ground at a huge 58-59% clip in all three seasons.

His fortunes turned sharply last year. Mayza took the ball for the Jays 35 times. Opponents blitzed him for more than eight earned runs per nine innings. His strikeout rate plummeted to 13.2%, while the ground-balls fell to a modest 39.1% rate. There weren’t many signs of encouragement in either the results nor the underlying profile. Toronto designated him for assignment in late June, a disappointing end to his tenure.

Mayza cleared waivers and was granted his release. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees not long thereafter. He fired 8 1/3 innings of two-run ball in Triple-A to earn a call up in the middle of August. The Yanks gave him 15 appearances, mostly in low-leverage situations, for the final six weeks of the regular season.

The results were dramatically improved from his early-season work but not back to his 2021-23 heights. He allowed 10 runs (eight earned) through 18 frames. He struck out a modest 16.4% of batters faced. Mayza added 2 1/3 scoreless frames in mop-up situations during New York’s pennant run — including a scoreless inning to wrap up their Game 4 win in the World Series. The Yankees non-tendered him in lieu of a projected $4MM salary for his final year of arbitration.

Mayza, like many situational lefties, relies on a sinker-slider combination. His sinker sat in the 93-94 MPH range during his best seasons in Toronto. The velocity was down about two ticks early last season. Mayza rediscovered it during his time in the Bronx, sitting around 93.5 MPH during his final two months. That didn’t result in a dramatic uptick in whiffs, though Mayza recaptured much of his prior ground-ball acumen. He kept the ball on the ground at a strong 55.4% clip during his time with the Yankees.

While not quite a return to form, Mayza showed enough late in the season for the Pirates to give him a roster spot. He has over five years of service time and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. The major league deal indicates he’s very likely to be in Derek Shelton’s season-opening bullpen. He joins fellow free agent signee Caleb Ferguson (another former Yankee) in that regard. The only other lefty reliever on the 40-man roster is long man Joey Wentz. He’s out of options, so he’ll also need to stick on the MLB roster or be made available to other teams via trade or waivers. RosterResource calculates the Bucs’ payroll around $80MM. They ended last season in the $87MM range.

Alex Stumpf of MLB.com was first on the agreement and the financials. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded.  Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league.  Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.

Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.  This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.

To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves.  Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place.  Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.

(First, some notes on the draft order.  The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients.  That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B.  If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round.  Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order.  This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks.  The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)

Onto the selections….

Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants.  Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure.  The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins’ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.

Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick.  If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.

Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal.  Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team.  The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers.  With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.

Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves.  With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities.  Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.

Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons.  As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft.  Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.

Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.

Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade.  This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.

Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.

Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year.  Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.

Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.

Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.

Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey.  While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick.  Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.

Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom.  Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.

Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending.  In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.

Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons.  Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.

Santana posted a 5.17 ERA in 149 2/3 innings across his first six Major League seasons, and then started off his seventh season with a 6.26 ERA in 27 1/3 frames with the Yankees.  This uninspiring performance led New York to designate Santana for assignment in June, and a subsequent waiver claim from the Pirates opened the door to the best stretch of Santana’s career.

The right-hander suddenly blossomed to a 2.44 ERA over 44 1/3 innings out of the Pittsburgh bullpen, along with a vastly improved strikeout rate (29.1% from 16.5%) from his time in the Bronx.  Santana also reduced his walk rate, and he received a bit more good fortune in the form of a 72.8% strand rate and .264 BABIP — comparatively, Santana had a very low 54% strand rate as a Yankee, and a .301 BABIP.  The decision to cut back on the use of his sinker (previously a primary pitch for Santana) after coming to Pittsburgh unlocked a new level of performance for Santana, and he also credited Aroldis Chapman’s mentorship as a key factor in his success with the Bucs.

Time will tell if Santana can keep his performance up, as he’ll now enter 2025 with much higher expectations as a high-leverage setup arm in Pittsburgh’s bullpen.  While the 28-year-old was hoping to fully cash in by landing a bigger salary in his second trip through the arbitration process, earning $1.4MM is still a great result considering the career crossroads Santana appeared to be at back in June.  From the Pirates’ perspective, Santana’s breakout is found money for the team, plus they have him under arbitration control through the 2026 season as well.

With the Santana case now finalized, the Pirates improve to 2-0 in hearings this offseason.  The team also came out ahead in its hearing with Johan Oviedo, with Oviedo landing $850K instead of his desired $1.15MM salary.

2:25pm: The Athletics are claiming right-hander Elvis Alvarado off waivers from the Pirates, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs designated him for assignment earlier this week to sign infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier. The A’s have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to complete this claim.

Alvarado, 26 next month, has yet to make his major league debut. He has pitched in the minors for the Nationals, Mariners, Tigers and Marlins over the years without getting the call to the big leagues. He hit free agency and the Pirates somewhat surprisingly gave him a roster spot in December, signing him to a split deal.

The Bucs were presumably willing to give him that roster spot based on a big uptick in strikeouts in 2024, though it also came with some control issues. He tossed 48 1/3 Triple-A innings in the Marlins’ system last year, allowing 2.79 earned runs per nine. He struck out 33.2% of batters faced but also gave out free passes at a massive 17.8% rate.

That was in stark contrast to his previous track record. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 137 2/3 innings on the farm with a 4.58 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Per Brooks Baseball, he has been increasing his slider usage over the past two years. In 2023, that was combined with fewer four-seamers and more sinkers. He flipped that in 2024, dropping his sinker usage and getting the four-seamer back up to previous levels.

The specifics of Alvarado’s split deal weren’t reported but such deals often feature a high minor league salary, in part to dissuade other clubs from putting in a claim and/or to stop the player from electing free agency. In this case, it seems the A’s were intrigued by the same minor league numbers that interested the Pirates, so they have grabbed Alvarado to add some pitching depth.