With the playoff picture largely taking shape and the majority of clubs around the league eliminated (or virtually eliminated) from postseason play, a number of teams and fans are looking to the offseason and the 2018 campaign and envisioning how best to augment their 2018 rosters.
The 2017-18 free agent class has a stronger group of starting pitching than the 2016-17 class (though that was a low bar to clear), and while there are a limitless factors that go into evaluating pitchers and determining their worth, there are plenty of surface-level indicators that can be helpful in identifying potential upgrades. For the purposes of this post, I’ve used Fangraphs’ customizable leaderboards to make a list of all of the starters likely to hit the open market this winter (excluding those with no-brainer club options like Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner as well as players that’ll obviously forgo opt-out clauses such as Wei-Yin Chen and Ian Kennedy). It’s not yet a given that Masahiro Tanaka will opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM on his contract, but given his strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates (leading to a 3.61 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA), I’ve included him on these lists as well.
Though there are dozens of ways to evaluate, here’s a look at the top arms on the market (min. 20 innings as a starter) in terms of velocity, missing bats, limiting walks and inducing favorable contact. (And thanks to the folks over at Fangraphs for being an always invaluable source of info.)
Hardest Throwers (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 92.4 mph
- Tyler Chatwood*: 94.6 mph average fastball
- Yu Darvish: 94.2 mph
- Andrew Cashner: 93.3 mph
- Francisco Liriano*: 92.6 mph
- Yovani Gallardo: 92.3 mph
- Masahiro Tanaka: 92.2 mph
- Jake Arrieta: 92.1 mph
- Matt Garza**: 91.9 mph
- Jesse Chavez/Lance Lynn: 91.8 mph
- Alex Cobb: 91.7 mph
*Bullpen work for Chatwood and Liriano was not included.
**The Brewers hold a $5MM club option over Garza, which is a modest price even considering his recent struggles. It’s certainly possible that his option is exercised, which would push Jhoulys Chacin (91.4 mph) up a spot.
Top Strikeout Arms (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 20.6 K%, 7.96 K/9
- Yu Darvish: 27.0 K%, 10.02 K/9
- Masahiro Tanaka: 24.6 K%, 9.40 K/9
- Trevor Cahill*: 24.3 K%, 9.75 K/9
- Jake Arrieta: 23.0 K%, 8.66 K/9
- Doug Fister: 21.8 K%, 8.47 K/9
- Anibal Sanchez: 21.4 K%, 8.59 K/9
- John Lackey: 20.6 K%, 7.97 K/9
- Ubaldo Jimenez: 20.5 K%, 8.50 K/9
- Jhoulys Chacin: 19.9 K%, 7.59 K/9
- Francisco Liriano*: 19.7 K%, 8.06 K/9
*Bullpen work from Cahill and Liriano following their respective trades to the Padres and Astros was not included.
Fewest Walks (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 8.1 BB%, 3.13 BB/9
- Anibal Sanchez: 5.2 BB%, 2.09 BB/9
- Bartolo Colon: 5.5 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
- Masahiro Tanaka: 5.6 BB%, 2.15 BB/9
- Alex Cobb: 5.9 BB%, 2.21 BB/9
- Jeremy Hellickson: 6.8 BB%, 2.58 BB/9
- John Lackey: 7.2 BB%, 2.80 BB/9
- Jason Vargas: 7.4 BB%, 2.81 BB/9
- Scott Feldman: 7.4 BB%, 2.83 BB/9
- Ricky Nolasco: 7.6 BB%, 2.95 BB/9
- Jake Arrieta: 7.8 BB%, 2.94 BB/9
Best Ground-Ball Rates (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 44.0 percent
- Tyler Chatwood: 57.1 percent
- Trevor Cahill: 55.4 percent
- Jaime Garcia: 54.8 percent
- Doug Fister: 51.8 percent
- CC Sabathia: 51.2 percent
- Wade Miley: 50.9 percent
- Masahiro Tanaka: 49.2 percent
- Jhoulys Chacin: 49.0 percent
- Andrew Cashner: 48.5 percent
- Alex Cobb: 47.8 percent
Least Hard Contact (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 32.3 percent
- CC Sabathia: 27.3 percent
- Jhoulys Chacin: 28.3 percent
- Jake Arrieta: 28.9 percent
- Trevor Cahill**: 29.0 percent
- Andrew Cashner: 29.0 percent
- Lance Lynn: 29.1 percent
- Tyler Chatwood: 29.5 percent
- Francisco Liriano**: 30.1 percent
- Jaime Garcia: 30.5 percent
- Masahiro Tanaka: 31.3 percent
*Bullpen work from Cahill and Liriano following their respective trades to the Padres and Astros was not included.
Obviously, this is a high-level look at the starting pitching market, though it’s of some note that a few under-the-radar names continually surface in multiple categories. While pitchers like Chatwood and Chacin may not be Plan A for any club looking to bolster its rotation, they’ve somewhat quietly displayed secondary numbers that are generally more impressive than their ERA. Sanchez has had a dismal year with the Tigers thanks to a major penchant for surrendering home runs, but he’s posted a solid 16.2 K%-BB% (league average is 12.5 percent). Fister, meanwhile, has rediscovered his ability to miss bats and has his velocity back up to an average of 89.8 mph, so while his control isn’t as sharp as it once was, he could draw more interest than many would’ve initially thought when the Red Sox claimed him off release waivers from the Angels.