Even with that loss and a handful of notable starters still on the market, the Mets aren’t planning to add another arm to their rotation, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. While further injuries could of course change that thinking, for now the Mets plan to rely on their in-house depth while weathering their first injury of note. Additionally, the previously planned six-man rotation will now likely drop to five, manager Carlos Mendoza tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Locks for the Opening Day rotation, health permitting, include Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson and reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes. Righties Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning and Paul Blackburn will vie for the fifth spot. Megill has a minor league option remaining. Canning and Blackburn do not, and both are earning more than $4MM this season, so it’s unlikely they’d be cut loose. (That’s especially true of Canning, who signed as a free agent over the winter.) Top prospect Brandon Sproat will be in the running at some point, but he still has only 116 1/3 professional innings under his belt, with only 28 2/3 of those coming in Triple-A.

Sammon’s report dovetails with recent suggestions that the Mets aren’t likely to pursue a reunion with Jose Quintana, despite the veteran left-hander’s openness to returning to Queens. Quintana declined an offer worth more than $5.25MM from the Pirates before Pittsburgh agreed to terms with fellow left-handed veteran Andrew Heaney. While it’s not clear that decision was made in hopes of the Mets coming through with an offer of their own, it does appear to shut the door on opportunities for Quintana with either club. Beyond Quintana, veterans like Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Spencer Turnbull are all still seeking homes.

For the Mets, any additions to the major league roster will be doubly cost prohibitive. They’re again a CBT payor in the top penalty tier, meaning any subsequent additions come with a 110% luxury tax. Signing Quintana in the $5-6MM range, for instance, would cost the team $10.5MM to $12.6MM. The Mets are already running a $331MM cash payroll, per RosterResource, which comes with nearly $67MM worth of luxury taxes.

In essence, the Mets are already paying close to $400MM total for the current roster. On the one hand, fans could argue “what’s another $10-12MM at that point?” On the other, even the sport’s wealthiest owner, Steve Cohen, surely has his limits. Plus, if things go according to plan in 2025, the Mets will be deadline buyers, presumably adding even further to that massive financial outlay. Time will tell whether the rest of the rotation group holds up through the remainder of camp — injuries abound in spring training every year — but for now, Mets fans shouldn’t hold out hope for a Quintana reunion or any other guaranteed deal to deepen the starting staff.

According to Murray, the Pirates offered Quintana a stronger guarantee than the sum which they eventually agreed to pay Heaney. Quintana declined the offer. It’s not clear what kind of contract the 36-year-old southpaw is seeking. It’s unlikely that Pittsburgh would circle back after landing Heaney. Quintana and Kyle Gibson are the top two unsigned starting pitchers.

Quintana spent the first half of the 2022 season in Pittsburgh. He’d signed a $2MM deal as a buy-low free agent with a then-rebuilding Bucs club. The Pirates hit on the common hope for rebuilding teams of turning a low-cost free agent pickup into a midseason trade chip. Quintana turned in a 3.50 ERA across 20 starts in black and gold. The Bucs flipped him to the Cardinals alongside reliever Chris Stratton for righty Johan Oviedo and minor league first baseman Malcom Nuñez. Oviedo lost last season to Tommy John surgery but could find himself at the back of Derek Shelton’s starting staff this year.

A strong finish in St. Louis positioned Quintana much more strongly for his return to the market. He landed a two-year, $26MM guarantee from the Mets over the 2022-23 offseason. It turned out to be a good investment on New York’s part. While he missed a good chunk of the ’23 season, Quintana was a key rotation piece last year. He fired 170 1/3 frames of 3.75 ERA ball. He chipped in another 14 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball in the postseason — including six scoreless in a winner-take-all Game 3 against Milwaukee in the Wild Card series.

Effective as Quintana was last year, the Mets haven’t seemed eager to bring him back. The New York Post’s Mike Puma reported shortly after the Frankie Montas injury that the Mets hadn’t reciprocated the veteran lefty’s eagerness for a reunion. Francys Romero suggested yesterday that the Mets, Padres and Rangers could show interest. The Padres have already added Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart to the back of their rotation. The Rangers seem unlikely to seriously pursue Quintana unless they first offload salary in a trade, as they’re projected within $6MM of the luxury tax threshold. The Post’s Jon Heyman wrote this evening that the Mets have “limited” interest in Quintana because of concerns about his underlying numbers.

That’s presumably mostly about his lack of swing-and-miss. Quintana posted an 18.8% strikeout rate in consecutive seasons. He generated swinging strikes on only 8.5% of his offerings last year. It’s the third consecutive year in which Quintana succeeded despite middling whiff rates. He’s a quality strike-thrower who got grounders at a solid 47.4% clip and has rattled off a trio of consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings.

The same cannot be said for the rotation. Despite rumors that connected the Mets to top starters on the trade market like Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease (as well as plenty of early speculation about the Mets as potential suitors for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried), the club took a far more measured approach to its starting staff. With Kodai Senga and David Peterson already in the fold, the club reunited with southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency while bringing in Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning to replace Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Joey Lucchesi on the depth chart.

It’s an interesting group of names, and it’s not hard to see the potential upside in those moves. Holmes becomes the latest well-regarded reliever to try his hand at starting, and success stories like Crochet, Seth Lugo, and Reynaldo Lopez offer a tantalizing glimpse at what Holmes could provide the Mets with should the move work out. Meanwhile, Montas was a well-regarded No. 2 starter as recently as three years ago, and Canning is just one year removed from being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels.

Still, there’s plenty of very real risk involved with each of the club’s additions. Holmes could instead follow in the footsteps of less-successful rotation converts like Jordan Hicks or even A.J. Puk. Montas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and struggled to remain effective even when he is on the mound, and Canning was arguably the single worst qualified starter in baseball last year. Even Manaea is coming off a career year that he may not be able to repeat in his age-33 season this year.

The question marks in the rotation came to a head earlier this week when it was revealed that Montas is currently suffering from a lat strain that was expected to shut him down for six to eight weeks. The veteran righty has since suggested that he’s set for just four to six weeks of no-throw, but that still suggests he may not have even begun throwing when Opening Day rolls around, at which point he’ll still need to make up for the lost preparation time caused by him missing a full spring training. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the Mets will be without Montas until sometime in May. If they still intend to use a six-man rotation, that would likely mean that Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes will be joined by Canning and Paul Blackburn.

Naturally, questions have arisen about whether the club should make another addition. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued that the Mets hadn’t done enough with the rotation even before news of Montas’ injury.) A number of veteran starters are still available in free agency, including four who made MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list at the outset of the offseason. A recent MLBTR Poll suggested that fans views Quintana as the best of those remaining arms, though the Mets have not been involved in his market despite interest in a reunion from the veteran southpaw’s side.

Even if the Mets aren’t enamored with the possibility of a Quintana reunion, both Andrew Heaney and Spencer Turnbull are still available and could be used either in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the club’s needs, affording the Mets flexibility when Montas returns. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among the other veteran arms still available in free agency.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club’s rotation already runs six names deep even without Montas. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned — both have five-plus years of service — but righties Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman are both on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Top prospect Brandon Sproat will likely make his debut at some point in 2025 as well.

If the Mets don’t add anyone right now, they could look for rotation help closer to the trade deadline if it proves necessary. That would allow them to find out more about their offseason rolls of the dice on guys like Montas and Canning before deciding if they need another arm. There will also likely be a larger supply of arms available in July, as the number of sellers will increase relative to spring training, where optimism abounds throughout the league. Perhaps the risk of having to surrender an exciting young piece from their farm system to add an arm this summer makes adding depth now for nothing but money a more attractive option. Each side has its pros and cons.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the issue? Are the Mets too light on talent in the rotation to compete with the Braves and Phillies for the NL East crown this year without another arm? Or should they stick with their internal options to open the season and reassess their starting depth at the trade deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Overton pitched in the big leagues in each year between 2021-23. He split that time between the Blue Jays, Pirates and Reds. Overton started 10 of his 18 appearances and worked to a 4.85 ERA across 59 1/3 innings. He struck out a well below-average 15.7% of batters faced against a 9.5% walk rate. Cincinnati outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the end of the ’23 season. They brought him back on a minor league deal not long after he elected free agency.

An injury cost him most of last season. Overton began the year on the minor league IL and wasn’t reinstated to the Triple-A roster until early August. Opponents teed off for more than a run per inning over his 24 2/3 frames to close the year. That obviously wasn’t going to get him another MLB look from Cincinnati. Overton hit minor league free agency again at season’s end.

While last year was a disaster, Overton has a solid minor league track record. He owns a 3.87 ERA in parts of five Triple-A seasons. His 21.4% strikeout rate there is a little below average, while his 5.3% walk rate is excellent. Overton sits in the 90-91 MPH range on his fastball and isn’t going to overpower many hitters. He profiles as a strike-throwing depth arm with the versatility to make a few spot starts or pitch in long relief over the course of the season.

“I thought that it was gonna be my last year,” Sale said to the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast about where he was at before getting traded to Atlanta. “So I went into that offseason on a mission like ’one more year left.’… ’cause in my mind, I wasn’t walking away from baseball. I was walking away from getting hurt.”

The Red Sox traded Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom in December of 2023. At the time, as mentioned, he had been battling significant injuries for five years. Tommy John surgery in 2020 was the big one but Sale also had a stress reaction in his ribs, a fractured finger, a broken wrist suffered in a bicycle accident and a stress reaction in his shoulder blade over that span. He had a 4.16 ERA in 298 1/3 innings over those five seasons.

2024 was the final year of his extension with the Red Sox and the mounting injuries apparently had him looking towards hanging up his spikes. But he was traded to Atlanta, signed an extension that covered 2024 and 2025 with a club option for 2026, and then went on to have an excellent season in 2024. It makes for an interesting “what if” but Sale is clearly in a better spot now. The injury bug hasn’t left him entirely alone, however. He missed the final two weeks of 2024 due to back spasms and was also left off Atlanta’s postseason roster. 2024 was still a big improvement over prior years but time will tell if he can keep the good health going into his age-36 season.

Some more spring training tidbits from the NL East…

• It was reported earlier this week that Mets righty Frankie Montas has a lat strain and will be shut down for six to eight weeks. The righty is apparently a bit more optimistic than his club, however. He told members of the media today, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, that he’s already feeling better from his platelet-rich plasma injection and expects to be throwing again in four to six weeks. That’s still a notable period of time but it’s a bit less dire than the other timeline. He had a 4.84 ERA last year and then signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Mets this winter. He will have the chance to opt out after the first year, though returning healthy and productive will be important if he is to consider that possibility. For now, the Mets’ rotation mix includes Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill.
• Nationals outfielder James Wood has some quad tendinitis, per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. It doesn’t bother him when he hits, so he’s been able to take batting practice but has skipped some defensive drills. Per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, Wood says he has “zero” concern but the club did send him for an MRI, which showed no structural damage. With still over a month before Opening Day, there’s plenty of time to get things in order, with Wood and the Nats both surely hoping for a clean bill of health by then. Now just 22 years old, Wood hit .264/.354/.427 in his major league debut last year and is slated to be a big part of the club’s future.

“It always seems like ballplayers are more expensive than you think,” the owner told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey and Jorge Castillo of ESPN). “Listen, I have the ability to spend if I have to. I want to win. And I want to put the best team I can on the field. But free agency is expensive. … Even this year, I had a thought of where I wanted to be, and I’ve already blown through it. And I really wanted to be there. And just circumstances created, ’all right, I have to adapt my thinking.'”

Landing Soto required an eye-popping $51MM average annual value that handily shattered previous precedent. They successfully waited out Alonso’s market to avoid a long-term commitment, getting him on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first season. That comes with a lofty $27MM AAV and a $30MM figure for the upcoming season, so it’s still a huge investment in 2025. Manaea landed three years and $75MM (albeit with deferrals), while Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and A.J. Minter all secured multi-year contracts with eight-figure salaries.

RosterResource projects New York’s raw payroll around $331MM. Their competitive balance tax estimate is slightly lower at $325MM. Those seem to be within the ballpark, as Cohen told reporters that he expects to finish the season with a payroll in the $340MM range after accounting for in-season pickups (i.e. waiver claims and trade deadline acquisitions).

That could theoretically also include a Spring Training free agent move. There’s been some thought that the Mets could try to add to the rotation after the recent revelation that Montas will be out for an extended stretch because of a lat injury. Jose Quintana is arguably the best unsigned starting pitcher, but it seems the Mets aren’t circling back to the veteran southpaw. Mike Puma of The New York Post reported this morning that while Quintana has expressed interest in returning to Queens, the Mets haven’t been involved in his market.

The Mets will enter the year with the second-highest payroll in MLB behind the Dodgers. It’ll be the fourth straight season in which they not only pay the luxury tax but find themselves in the highest penalization tier. That’s $60MM above the base threshold. It was implemented in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement largely in response to other owners’ concerns that Cohen would blow the rest of the league away in spending. Teams that land in the top tax bracket and have paid the CBT in three or more consecutive seasons are charged a 110% tax on spending beyond that number, which lands at $301MM this year.

While the Mets are going to be firmly in that tier in ’25, Cohen said he’s hopeful of ducking below that line in future seasons. “I’d like to get below the Cohen Tax,” he said, alluding to the informal name for the highest tax bracket. “We sure it’s about me? There’s a lot of Cohens out there.” To that end, he somewhat downplayed the possibility of signing another extended megadeal next offseason. “You really can’t have too many long-term contracts, because then you lose your roster flexibility, so you need to be really careful,” he said. “But I’ll let my baseball people make that decision.”

This isn’t the first time that Cohen has spoken broadly about wanting to cut back spending over the long term. That hasn’t really happened. They ended last year with a tax number around $348MM, so this season is likely to represent a slight spending cut. RosterResource estimates their CBT number for 2026 around $206MM. Starling Marte’s four-year deal wraps up after the season, as do the one-year signings of Jesse Winker, Griffin Canning and Ryne Stanek. Alonso, Montas, Minter and Edwin Díaz all have opt-out chances.

Of that group, Alonso is most likely to retest the market. The star slugger didn’t find the long-term interest he’d expected, leading to the pillow deal. Alonso acknowledged that it represented “a bridge thing just to get to the next contract” (link via Tim Healey of Newsday). He conceded that his past two seasons have been below his peak standards, which contributed to a shorter deal. Alonso declined a three-year proposal from the Mets in order to take a more frontloaded two-year guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote over the weekend that the Mets and Blue Jays had each made proposals earlier in the offseason in the $85MM range which included some amount of deferred money.

Alonso also said that the qualifying offer had a greater impact on his market than he’d anticipated. Any team other than the Mets would have forfeited a draft choice and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. The Mets merely relinquished the right to a fourth-round compensation pick to retain their own free agent. Players can only receive the QO once in their careers, so Alonso is positioned to hit the market unencumbered next offseason. He indicated he has no hard feelings with the Mets about how this winter played out and said it’d be “fantastic” if the sides eventually work out a longer-term contract.

12:40pm: It’s a lat injury, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though the timetable is still unknown.

11:41am: Mets camp has only just begun, but Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that free agent pickup Frankie Montas has not been throwing and will be shut down for a “significant stretch.” Details surrounding the apparent injury have not yet come to light. The Mets signed Montas to a two-year, $34MM contract back in early December. He has an opt-out opportunity at the end of the season, though a prolonged injury absence will obviously reduce the likelihood of that coming to pass.

Without details about the injury or expected absence, it’s hard to say how worried Mets fans should be. Regardless, it’s not ideal to be starting camp with one of their key offseason investments already behind.

The Mets were facing a significant rotation overhaul this winter, with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana all hitting free agency. They had also lost Christian Scott to Tommy John surgery last year and Paul Blackburn had undergone a spinal procedure. They still had Kodai Senga, though he missed most of 2024.

Given the club’s big spending in recent years, some expected them to go after the top free agents, but they took a different route this winter. They never seemed particularly interested in guys like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, instead opting for short-term pacts. They re-signed Manaea with a three-year deal, and also gave three years to reliever Clay Holmes with the idea of converting him to a rotation job. Montas got two years with an opt-out while Griffin Canning got a one-year deal.

Injuries have been an issue for Montas recently, most notable a shoulder issue that required surgery and wiped out most of his 2023 campaign. He was back on the mound last year with uneven results, posting a 4.48 earned run average and tepid 22.6% strikeout rate. That latter number did tick up to 28.7% after a deadline deal to the Brewers, which is perhaps what gave the Mets some optimism that he was back on a good track, but health may now be an issue again.

That shoulder surgery is one reason why Montas hasn’t been able to log many big league innings. He also received an 80-game PED suspension in July of 2019, putting his breakout on hold. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season then capped him at 11 starts that year. He tossed 187 innings in 2021 but then the shoulder issues slowed him down late in 2022 before the aforementioned surgery. Amid all those stops and starts, Montas has only once hit 151 innings pitched in a season.

If Montas is behind, then a season-opening start on the injured list seems likely. Until more details are reported, it can only be guessed whether the concern will extend deeper into the season. Assuming Montas does start the season on the IL, the Mets project to start the campaign with a rotation of Senga, Manaea, Holmes and David Peterson, with Canning, Blackburn and Tylor Megill options for the back end, though Blackburn also might start the season on the IL.  Prospects Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell should be in Triple-A, though both struggled at that level last year.

If the Mets want to add some more depth in the wake of this Montas news, they will have options. The free agent market still features guys like Quintana, Andrew Heaney, Spencer Turnbull and others. Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and others are likely available in trades.

Per RosterResource, the payroll is at $331MM and the competitive balance tax at $325MM. The pure payroll was in a similar spot last year, though they got their CBT number all the way up to $358MM. Whether they want to add more payroll to continue adding to the rotation remains to be seen.

Marte shared his own take on the process with Sammon, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, and other reporters today at the Mets’ spring camp, revealing that the team was in contact with him about trade possibilities.  “They spoke to me before the [Juan Soto] signing, and then after the signing, they reiterated that they would try to move me,” Marte said.  “They were very clear, very honest with me up front.  They obviously want the best for this team, but also the best for my future.  They were really helpful, and they were really transparent about the situation.”

The Mets have yet to tell Marte whether or not a trade might still happen, Sammon writes, though the possibility looks increasingly less likely now that Spring Training is underway.  As a result, Marte is penciled in for part-time duty at best, slated to mostly work as a backup outfielder and as the team’s DH whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound.  Marte has offered to also chip in as a center fielder, even if he has played just three games at the position in the last three seasons, and with Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor seemingly having things covered up the middle.

Regardless, Marte’s willingness to return to his old position underscores his desire to help the Mets win, even if he’s receiving less playing time than usual.

“Whenever you’re with a team for the amount of time I’ve been with the team, you get comfortable, you don’t want to get traded because you’ve created relationships with the staff, the players, everybody around here,” Marte said.  “But at the same time, any baseball player would love to play every single day because that’s how a player gets reps, gets better day in and day out.  But at the same time, I’m here and I’m going to do the best I can do.”

While his four-year, $78MM contract is (incredibly) barely a tenth of Soto’s megadeal, it wasn’t long ago that Marte was a prized free agent contract in his own right, joining the Mets in the 2021-22 offseason.  He delivered an All-Star performance in the first year of that deal, even if a fractured finger prematurely ended his regular season and hampered him during the Mets’ playoff run.  The finger issue proved to be a harbinger for the next two seasons, as Marte battled a number of different health issues and played in 180 of a possible 324 games, while hitting .258/.314/.357 with 12 home runs in 711 plate appearances.

Most of those struggles were focused into the 2023 season, as Marte had a more respectable 104 wRC+ in 370 PA in 2024.  As DiComo noted, Marte had some pretty sharp splits last season with the bulk of his production coming against southpaws, so a more specialized role against mostly left-handed pitching could help Marte become an impact bat even in a limited capacity.

Of course, Marte might well earn himself more at-bats the better he hits, or he could get more playing time if injuries strike any of New York’s other outfielders.  To that end, Brandon Nimmo dealt with plantar fasciitis in his left foot for much of the 2024 season, and he told Sammon and Tim Britton that he received a PRP injection to deal with the problem over the offseason.

The early returns in camp are promising, as Nimmo estimated he was moving at 91 percent of his top speed during a running drill on Friday.  The plan is to ramp up relatively slowly during the spring, with Nimmo again planning to wait until the first week of March to start playing in games.  If all goes as expected, Nimmo felt he should be ready for Opening Day.

“I think so. We’re always going to be involved in conversations. We’re always going to be trying to see if there are ways we can get better. We also feel really good about the group we have that’s reporting right now, and I would anticipate, by and large, that this is the team we’re going forward with.”

While it’s not a decisive declaration that there are no further transactions on the horizon, it seems likeliest that those would come via non-roster invitation. The Mets possesses a veteran roster that’s largely made up of players with five-plus years of MLB service or players who’ve exhausted their minor league options. Further veteran signings/acquisitions could exacerbate what’s already some fairly limited roster flexibility. Stearns’ response when asked whether the team was moving on from infielder Jose Iglesias is rather telling, in that regard:

“I think where we are now, for that role on our team, it’s important for us to keep some avenues open for some of our younger players. We think it’s important for us to have some roster flexibility with that spot. It’s really tough to freeze your entire position player roster. We did that for a portion last year, and we actually kind of got away with it, but there very easily could’ve been a circumstance where we got stuck with a completely frozen position player roster, so having some flexibility there in that role is, frankly, probably needed for us right now.”

That’s a disappointing reply for Mets fans who fell in love with Iglesias in what proved to be a renaissance campaign for the 35-year-old. Originally signed to a minor league deal, Iglesias was summoned to the majors at the end of May and became not only a highly productive role player but a fan and clubhouse favorite thanks to his OMG song that became a rallying cry. In 85 games, Iglesias took 291 plate appearances and batted .337/.381/.448. However, that production was way out of sync with his career norms (.279/.319/.382 entering the season) and was buoyed by a sky-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not likely to repeat.

Beyond some justifiable questions about Iglesias’ ability to sustain his 2024 output, the “flexibility” aspect of Stearns’ reply is worth drilling into a bit further. Right now, the only member of the Mets’ projected lineup who can be optioned to Triple-A is catcher Francisco Alvarez. They’ll have three bench players — backup catcher Luis Torrens, backup outfielder Tyrone Taylor and outfielder/DH Starling Marte — who cannot be optioned. (Outfielder Jose Azocar is also out of options, so he’ll need to earn a roster spot or else be DFA later in camp.)

Adding Iglesias would create a fourth, effectively “freezing” the team’s entire group of position players, as Stearns suggested. That could be a reason the team opted to bring infielder Nick Madrigal into the mix. He provides similar bat-to-ball skills and infield versatility but also has a minor league option remaining, which will create more flexibility as the season wears on.

It’s similar on the pitching staff. Kodai Senga and David Peterson are the only starters who can be optioned. Reed Garrett is the only member of the projected ’pen who can be optioned. Each of Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Ryne Stanek, Jose Butto, Griffin Canning, Danny Young and Sean Reid-Foley is either out of options or past five years of MLB service.

That lack of flexibility is magnified when there’s a player in the lineup who perhaps needs two to four days off but probably not a full IL stint. It’s also notable when a specific reliever or the relief corps as a whole is overworked and the team would like to add a fresh arm to the mix. There could very well be some uncomfortable DFAs on the horizon for the Mets, though injuries or poor spring performances can make those decisions easier.

If the Mets are indeed done, they’ll enter the 2025 season with the game’s No. 2 payroll, trailing only the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles. Stearns noted that he and owner Steve Cohen mapped out various scenarios regarding their potential payroll early in the offseason, and the point at which the Mets have now landed was toward the highest ranges the pair discussed at the time. RosterResource projects the Mets for a $331MM payroll, with $325MM on their luxury-tax ledger.

February 12: The Mets will extend their relationship with their longest-tenured pitcher, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a one-year deal with right-hander Drew Smith, which contains a club option for the 2026 season. Smith, who’s rehabbing from Tommy John/internal brace surgery performed last July, will be paid $1MM in 2025. His club option is valued at $2MM. The MVP Sports client can boost those totals by way of some yet-unclear incentives.

Smith, 31, has pitched parts of six big league seasons with the Mets. He’s been a fixture in their late-inning mix over the past four years, logging a combined 3.35 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in that time. Smith has worked plenty of high-leverage spots, recording 33 holds and five saves in 156 appearances while being credited with only four blown saves during that time.

The surgery for Smith was deflating in multiple aspects. It not only knocked him out of the team’s Grimace- and OMG-fueled postseason run, it also coincided with the run-up to his first trip into free agency. A healthy Smith would’ve been an easy candidate for a guaranteed multi-year deal at a decent annual rate. On top of that, it’s the second Tommy John procedure of his career. After a solid big league debut in 2018, he missed the 2019 campaign due to the same procedure.

Depending how long the rehab process takes this time around, Smith could at least potentially be a late-season and/or October option for the Mets. Should he make it back, he’d join a relief corps also featuring Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett and Jose Butto.

For now, once the deal is finalized, Smith will quickly be placed on the 60-day injured list. The Mets will technically need to open a spot for Smith before they can move him to the 60-day IL, but that can be accomplished by placing Christian Scott (also recovering from Tommy John surgery) on the 60-day IL. Smith could move to the 60-day himself once an additional spot is needed for another free agent signing, waiver claim, or the selection of a non-roster invitee to the 40-man roster later in camp.

With the Mets in the top tier of luxury penalization, the Smith reunion will actually cost them about $2.1MM overall (the $1MM salary plus a 110% tax). Those same taxes will apply to whatever incentives he unlocks this year (and next year, if the Mets are again in the top penalty tier in 2026). That’s a drop in the bucket for a club running a cash payroll north of $330MM and looking at roughly $110MM worth of taxes on top of that sum.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the agreement and structure. Jon Heyman of the New York Post added details on the guaranteed money and option value.

February 5: The stalemate between Pete Alonso and the Mets is over. New York is reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $54MM deal with the star first baseman. Alonso, a client of the Boras Corporation, can opt out after the upcoming season. He receives a $10MM signing bonus and a $20MM salary for 2025. He’ll essentially have a $24MM player option for the ’26 campaign. The deal comes with a $27MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. Alonso chose the two-year deal over a separate offer from the Mets that would have guaranteed $71MM over three seasons.

Alonso, who turned 30 in December, returns to Queens for a seventh season. He has been one of the faces of the franchise since his electrifying debut. Alonso led the majors with 53 home runs en route to a runaway Rookie of the Year win in 2019. That still stands as the all-time rookie home run record. He connected on 16 longballs in the shortened follow-up season and has topped 30 homers in each of the last four years.

That’s a testament not only to his massive power but to his exceptional availability. Alonso has played at least 152 games in each of his five full seasons. He appeared in all 162 contests last year. His only career injured list stint was a minimal stay in 2023 related to a bone bruise in his left wrist. Over the last six seasons, only Marcus Semien has played in more games. Semien and Freddie Freeman are the only hitters with more plate appearances.

On a rate basis, Alonso’s production has dropped in consecutive seasons. He carried a .261/.349/.535 batting line through his first four seasons. Alonso hit another 46 homers in 2023, though he did so with career-low marks in batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.318). His average and OBP rebounded slightly last season, but his power ticked down. Alonso hit .240 with a .329 OBP and a career-low .459 slugging percentage across 695 plate appearances. His 34 homers and 88 runs batted in were each personal worsts over a full schedule.

It was a pedestrian year rather than a bad one. There’s clear value in a player who hits 34 home runs in a relative down season. Still, it was the second straight year in which Alonso’s offensive production was below his early-career level. He’s a .229/.324/.480 hitter since the start of the ’23 campaign. That checks in 21 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+.

By that statistic, Alonso ranks ninth in overall offense among the 35 first basemen with at least 750 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He’s just behind Cody Bellinger and Josh Naylor and narrowly ahead of LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis Arraez and Christian Walker. Alonso’s durability and power gives him a higher offensive ceiling than the rest of that group. Nevertheless, his recent rate metrics have put him alongside those hitters and a clear step down from Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper at the top of the position.

Alonso’s on-field value lies in the bat and his durability. He doesn’t provide baserunning value. His defensive grades at first base are middling. Defensive Runs Saved put him at three runs below par last season and has given him a +2 mark for his career. Statcast had him six runs below average in 2024 and grades him at 18 runs under par overall. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have both valued Alonso around 2-3 wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons.

Of course, Alonso’s value to the Mets extends beyond that production. He’s a homegrown star who is already third on the organization’s home run leaderboard. He is 16 homers shy of David Wright for second place and only needs 27 longballs to surpass Darryl Strawberry for the franchise record. He’ll almost certainly break that record, likely next season.

Alonso was also a key contributor during New York’s run to last year’s NL Championship Series. He saved the season in the Wild Card series with his three-run shot off Devin Williams in the ninth inning of Game 3. That was one of four longballs he hit in October. Alonso slashed .273/.431/.568 across 58 postseason plate appearances. Modern front offices are generally wary about putting much stock in small-sample playoff numbers, though, and Alonso’s unexceptional regular season worked against him in free agency.

The four-time All-Star hit the market envisioning a strong nine-figure deal. His camp presumably sought something in the range of the Matt Olson and Freeman contracts. Olson inked an eight-year, $168MM extension with the Braves; Freeman signed a six-year, $162MM guarantee with the Dodgers, though deferrals dropped the net present value closer to $148MM.

At one point, the Mets valued Alonso similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso made $20.5MM in his last arbitration year, so he’d need to beat $137.5MM over the next six seasons to come out ahead in that decision.

Circumstances have changed significantly since the Mets made that offer. Alonso has switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. The Mets moved on from then-GM Billy Eppler and installed David Stearns at the top of baseball operations. The Brewers rarely invested heavily in first basemen, even via arbitration, during Stearns’ tenure as Milwaukee’s general manager. He’s operating with a much different payroll ceiling under Steve Cohen’s ownership, but this generally hasn’t been his preferred player archetype.

While Stearns and Cohen maintained that they wanted Alonso back, they didn’t want to do so on a long-term deal. They made the obvious decision to put forth a qualifying offer, which the slugger easily rejected. It seems they held off on going beyond three years. As his free agency dragged, Alonso moved off his desire for a long-term deal in talks with the Mets. His camp reportedly pitched a three-year term with multiple opt-out chances. Financial specifics aren’t clear, but the Mets countered with a three-year proposal in the $68-70MM range in the middle of January. After Alonso declined, the Mets signaled they were willing to move on to contingencies.

Whether the Mets actually believed Alonso would walk or were merely signaling that as negotiating leverage, they must come away pleased with the result. The Mets reportedly had two different offers on the table: a three-year, $71MM proposal or the two-year deal which he ultimately accepted. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the three-year term also included an opt-out after the first season and would have broken down as a $27MM salary in year one followed by $22MM salaries if he didn’t opt out. Alonso preferred the extra $3MM in the first season, betting on himself to play well enough to take the out clause next winter.

The Mets keep the term short and retain Alonso on a deal that more closely resembles the two-year contracts signed by Rhys Hoskins ($34MM with Milwaukee) and Joc Pederson ($37MM with Texas) than the Olson or Freeman precedents. It’s an ideal cap to a dangerous lineup. The Mets won the Juan Soto bidding on the record-shattering $765MM deal as the Winter Meetings were getting underway. New York brought back Jesse Winker to serve as their designated hitter, at least against right-handed pitching. That’ll keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez are key holdovers, with Jeff McNeil and one of Tyrone Taylor or Jose Siri rounding out the projected starting nine.

Keeping Vientos at third base blocks the clearest path to playing time for younger infielders Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. The latter two could push McNeil for reps at second base. They all have a minor league option remaining, so the Mets could keep all three at Triple-A Syracuse. They don’t need to make a trade — there’s a good chance Alonso will retest free agency next winter — but it’s possible the surplus makes them more willing to include an upper-level infielder in a package for a top-end starter. New York has built strong rotation depth but arguably needs to increase the rotation’s ceiling to pull ahead of the Phillies and Braves in what’ll be a tough NL East race.

The deal pushes the Mets’ projected payroll to roughly $331MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. The $27MM luxury tax hit brings them to $325MM in CBT obligations. That pushes them firmly beyond the $301MM threshold that marks the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 90% clip for the approximate $3MM to push them to that threshold and at a 110% rate on spending beyond that point. The signing comes with approximately $29.1MM in taxes. They’ll pay around $59MM this season to keep Alonso. New York also relinquishes the right to the compensatory draft choice that they would have received had he signed elsewhere after declining the qualifying offer. That pick would have come after the fourth round.

Alonso secures a strong one-year salary with an eye towards a more lucrative free agent trip next winter. Players cannot receive a QO more than once in their career, so he’d hit the market without draft compensation if he opts out. He’d still come out ahead of that declined extension offer if he secures a deal worth more than $107.5MM over the ensuing five seasons. That’s by no means a guarantee, as he’ll be working against the aging curve, but it’s the kind of risk-reward play that a lot of free agents take if they don’t find their ideal long-term deal on their first free agent try.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets were re-signing Alonso. Jeff Passan of ESPN had the two-year, $54MM guarantee and the $30MM in year one. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the signing bonus and that Alonso declined a three-year term, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported had a $71MM guarantee. Image courtesy of Imagn.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• Pete Alonso re-signing with the Mets (1:45)
• What’s next for the Blue Jays after not getting Alonso? (9:25)
• Will the Mets and Alonso going to reunite again in the future or will this be it? (12:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• What teams could still sign Alex Bregman? (17:50)
• Can the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado to the Red Sox? (29:20)
• Do the Orioles need an ace? (37:55)
• What are the Marlins building right now? (39:30)

Check out our past episodes!

• Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres – listen here
• Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar – listen here
• Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Buttó opened last season in the rotation. He started seven games and managed decent results, working to a 3.08 ERA across 38 innings. Buttó’s command was worrisome, though, as he walked nearly 14% of opposing hitters. New York optioned him to Triple-A in the middle of May. He started eight games and turned in a 3.05 ERA before being recalled at the beginning of July.

Upon his return to the majors, Buttó worked exclusively in relief. He was a quality bullpen piece for the season’s final few months. Buttó allowed only two earned runs per nine with an excellent 29.7% strikeout percentage over 36 frames. His walk rate remained elevated at a 12.3% clip. It’s difficult to stick as a starter with that kind of command, so it’s not especially surprising that the Mets will keep Buttó in a 2-3 inning role.

New York is likely to run a six-man starting staff. Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Frankie Montas and bullpen conversion Clay Holmes will be in the Opening Day rotation if healthy. The sixth spot could involve a camp battle between Megill, Paul Blackburn and free agent signee Griffin Canning.

Megill started 15 of his 16 appearances a year ago, pitching to a 4.04 earned run average while fanning 27% of batters faced through 78 frames. Canning started 31 times for the Angels last season, struggling to a 5.19 ERA with a 17.6% strikeout rate. Blackburn, whom the Mets acquired from the A’s at last year’s deadline, had a 4.66 mark while striking out 18.7% of opponents over 14 starts. Blackburn underwent postseason surgery to address a spinal injury, but the Mets are hopeful that he’ll be ready by Opening Day.

Mendoza also provided some details on the team’s infield mix. Free agent pickup Nick Madrigal will get shortstop work this spring, relays Mike Puma of The New York Post. The former fourth overall pick has not played shortstop in his MLB career and only has six innings of minor league work there. He saw some action at shortstop in college, though he was mostly a second baseman in amateur ball as well.

The Mets have less of a need for a true backup shortstop than most teams do. Francisco Lindor rarely takes days off. They’d ideally have someone capable of playing the position available off the bench, though. If Ronny Mauricio opens the season on the injured list, Luisangel Acuña is their most experienced shortstop depth. The Mets would presumably rather have the 22-year-old (23 next month) playing every day at Triple-A Syracuse than spending most days on the major league bench.

New York has three players locked into the starting infield: Pete Alonso at first base, Lindor at shortstop, and Mark Vientos at the hot corner. Second base is arguably the biggest question in a deep lineup. While Acuña and Brett Baty should each get time there in camp, Mendoza indicated that Jeff McNeil has the leg up on the job going into Spring Training.

“There’s competition but Jeff is pretty much right there,” the manager said (link via Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic). McNeil rebounded from a terrible first half to hit .289/.376/.547 over 40 games in the second half. A broken wrist cut his regular season short. McNeil made it back for the NL Championship Series. He had a rough series, which is understandable for a player returning from a month-long absence from game speed, but the excellent second half and his broader track record should make it an easy call for the Mets to keep him in the lineup to start the year.

Covey, 33, signed a split big league deal with the Mets back in late October that would’ve paid him $850K in the majors or $350K in the minors, per the Associated Press. Since he has fewer than five years of MLB service, Covey would forfeit any guarantees on that deal (presumably just the minor league split) by rejecting the assignment and going back to the market.

Covey hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023, when he logged a sharp 3.77 ERA over 43 innings between the Dodgers and Phillies. That year’s 15.7% strikeout rate was way shy of league-average, but Covey’s 8.9% walk rate was close to average and his 54.3% ground-ball rate was very strong. The right-hander had spent the 2021-22 seasons pitching in Taiwan for the Chinese Professional Baseball League’s Rakuten Monkeys, and he returned with a sinker that sat at 95.1 mph — an increase of 3.1 mph over the 92 he average in 2020.

The Phillies saw enough to keep Covey around in arbitration, tendering him a contract in arbitration and signing him to a one-year deal. A shoulder strain wiped out the bulk of his 2024 campaign, however. Covey didn’t pitch in the majors and logged only a combined 20 1/3 innings in the minors. His 2.66 ERA across multiple levels was strong, however, and Covey backed that up with a decent 22.6% strikeout rate and a mammoth 66.5% ground-ball rate (albeit against an ugly 10.7% walk rate).

Covey’s overall body of work in the big leagues isn’t great. He has a career 6.18 ERA in 307 1/3 MLB innings. That said, he pitched well in Taiwan (3.63 ERA in 198 1/3 innings), came back to North America throwing harder and has now had some degree of success in the big leagues and upper minors with a revamped pitch repertoire. He’s throwing far more sinkers and cutters since returning stateside and has scrapped his four-seamer and curveball entirely. Covey seems to rather clearly be a different pitcher in his early 30s than he was when he was getting hit hard with the White Sox and Red Sox in his 20s. He can provide another club with some depth in the rotation and/or in the bullpen as a long man.

Keeping Manaea was an undeniable boon to Carlos Mendoza's rotation, even if it came at a generally steep cost. As shown in MLBTR's Contract Tracker, Manaea is one of just five starters in the past decade to secure a $25MM AAV over three or more years beginning in his age-33 season or later. Teams generally are loath to commit this type of money in a pitcher's mid-30s, but the left-hander's performance and the bull market for starting pitching early in the winter coalesced to land him (and 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi) a rare contract for pitchers in this age bracket.

The rest of the Mets' moves in the rotation, however, have been lackluster. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns came to Queens with a reputation of eschewing long-term deals from his time heading up the Brewers' baseball operations department. There was some question as to how much of that stemmed from Milwaukee's perennially bottom-third payroll and how much was a philosophical directive from Stearns himself. The two offseasons with Stearns at the helm for the Mets don't represent a large enough sample to say he simply won't go long-term for a pitcher under any circumstances, but signs point to the likelihood that his avoidance of large-scale pitching contracts in his Brewers days wasn't solely a product of owner Mark Attanasio's frugality.

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