Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.

It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.

Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.

May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.

There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.

It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.

Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:

The news that Ohtani has resumed throwing and that he largely looked good doing so is surely heartening for Dodgers fans, but his timeline for a return to the mound remains unchanged. The club’s plan appears to be for Ohtani to join the club’s rotation at some point in May, with a five-man rotation set to be used by the Dodgers until then. As relayed by Ardaya, manager Dave Roberts indicated that Ohtani could resume facing live hitters before the club flies out to Tokyo for an early start to the regular season against the Cubs next month.

While the early returns of Ohtani’s rehab process are encouraging, plenty of questions remain between now and Ohtani’s first official pitching appearance in a Dodgers uniform. Ohtani’s rehab process as a pitcher will have to be balanced against his duties as the Dodgers’ everyday DH, creating a unique conundrum for the Dodgers to try and work through. The Angels dealt with a similar problem when Ohtani attempted to resume pitching in 2020 following Tommy John surgery, and that ended disastrously as he recorded just five outs and turned in his only below-average season as a big league hitter.

That said, it appears the Dodgers aren’t likely to send Ohtani on a rehab assignment before he makes his return to pitching. While rehab assignments are customary for pitchers coming off major surgeries, Ardaya notes that the club has had success returning Clayton Kershaw to the big league mound without a rehab assignment in the past after lengthy stays on the injured list, and he relays that pitching coach Mark Prior emphasized that rehabbing and hitting at the same time “seemed to turn out pretty well” for the reigning NL MVP last year. As an alternative to a rehab assignment, the plan seems to be for the Dodgers to hold simulated games for Ohtani before the Dodgers’ regularly scheduled game for that day begins, allowing him to face live hitters in the form of either players from the big league bench or minor league hitters.

Ohtani and the Dodgers will be looking to strike this balance all while Ohtani looks to put offseason surgery behind him. Ohtani was injured sliding into second base during Game Two of the World Series last year and ultimately ended up going under the knife to repair a torn labrum after dislocating his shoulder on that aforementioned slide. Former Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger famously struggled to return to form as a hitter after a similar injury, and Ardaya notes Ohtani has admitted that even as camp opens up he’s still dealing with a somewhat limited range of motion in his shoulder. Still, there’s a month left until the Dodgers begin the regular season in Tokyo, so Ohtani still has plenty of time to get his swing into a good place even as he balances that with rehabbing as a pitcher.

Ohtani wasn’t the only player in Dodgers camp to receive a notable injury update today. as noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, veteran first baseman Freddie Freeman told reporters he was “almost a full player” at this point in his rehab process after undergoing offseason ankle surgery. Freeman has resumed doing everything but running at this point, and while he’s not expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training games later this month Freeman emphasized that he remains on track to start the season in the lineup for the Dodgers in Japan.

A veteran of 10 MLB seasons, Rosario’s career highlight ironically came against the Dodgers back in 2021, when Rosario posted an absurd 1.647 OPS over 28 plate appearances in the Braves’ NLCS triumph over Los Angeles.  That incredible performance earned Rosario NLCS MVP honors, and he then earned a championship ring when Atlanta topped the Astros in the World Series.

The Braves re-signed Rosario to a two-year, $18MM free agent deal in the aftermath of that title, though the last three seasons have been much more of a struggle for the veteran.  Rosario didn’t hit well in 2022 before rebounding for a solid 21-homer campaign in 2023, but it wasn’t enough for Atlanta to exercise its $9MM club option on Rosario for the 2024 season.

He instead landed in Washington, where Rosario’s production tailed off so badly that the Nationals released him in July, and a return to the Braves also didn’t restore any of the old magic to Rosario’s bat.  Rosario’s brief stint with the Mets didn’t lead to any MLB playing time, and so his overall 2024 slash line finished at a lackluster .175/.215/.316 over 319 combined PA with the Nationals and Braves.

There’s no risk for the Dodgers in taking a flier on Rosario to see if the 33-year-old has anything left after multiple inconsistent seasons.  Rosario’s chances of breaking camp with arguably the most loaded roster in baseball aren’t great on paper, yet the situation could yet change in the event of an injury, or if Rosario forces the issue with some big Cactus League numbers.  Even if he doesn’t win a spot in Los Angeles, an impressive spring might help Rosario’s chances of landing with another team if he opts out of his minors deal before the end of camp.

L.A. had previously indicated they’d run a six-man staff all year. That’d allow Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki to stay close to the schedule they had in Japan, where starters pitch once per week. It’s also designed to avoid overworking a rotation full of pitchers who have notable injury histories. However, the early-season schedule allows skipper Dave Roberts to keep everyone’s workload in check organically.

The Dodgers and Cubs open the regular season with a two-game set at the Tokyo Dome on March 18-19. Los Angeles is expected to turn to Yamamoto and Sasaki, respectively, to pitch in their home country. They then have a week before their domestic season opener, which’ll be on March 27 against Detroit. The schedule builds in an off day on Monday, March 30, followed by days off for each of the next five Thursdays. They have a few stretches of six consecutive game days but won’t play more than that until running 10 straight from May 2-11.

Sticking with a five-man rotation allows them to carry an eighth reliever. Teams are limited to 13 pitchers. As a two-way player, Shohei Ohtani doesn’t count against the limit. He’s still working back from 2023 elbow surgery and last year’s postseason shoulder injury. He’ll be limited to hitting for the first few weeks of the season. Going with a six-man rotation while Ohtani is not pitching would cap them at a seven-man bullpen.

Ohtani could be ready to make his return to the mound at some point in May. That’d align with when the Dodgers are looking to move back to a six-man rotation and would permit them to keep the eight-man bullpen all year. Friedman unsurprisingly said the Dodgers weren’t going to push Ohtani’s recovery just to meet a specific deadline. It’s better to operate with a seven-man bullpen for a while than risk pushing Ohtani’s arm too quickly. The return timetable might line up anyways with when the schedule becomes more demanding.

In the short term, the five-man staff seemingly introduces a camp battle between Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May for one rotation job. The front four will be filled by Yamamoto, Sasaki, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. That’d leave Gonsolin, May, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius as healthy rotation options.

May has more than five years of service, meaning the Dodgers cannot send him to the minors without his approval. The rest of the back-end starters do have options. Gonsolin would reach the five-year service mark after collecting another 20 days on the MLB roster. At that point, he’d be able to refuse a minor league assignment as well.

If everyone stays healthy during Spring Training, that could push one of May or Gonsolin to the bullpen. An Ohtani return coinciding with the move to a six-man rotation could keep it that way, though it’s likely they’ll have encountered some kind of injury trouble by that point. Roberts said the Dodgers view May and Gonsolin as starters but left open the possibility of kicking one into long relief once the season gets started.

Both pitchers missed the 2024 season to injury. Gonsolin underwent an ill-timed Tommy John surgery in August ’23. May underwent a flexor tendon repair the month before that. He was gearing up for a midseason return last summer before a surprising July announcement that he’d undergone season-ending surgery to repair a tear in his esophagus.

May discussed that scary incident with Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. The 27-year-old righty said it occurred in a fluke manner while he was having a salad for dinner. A piece of lettuce lodged awkwardly in his throat and ended up piercing his esophagus when he tried to wash it down with a sip of water. May credited his wife Millie with encouraging him to go to the emergency room, where doctors realized the severity of the injury and rushed him into surgery. May told Harris he’s not sure that he would have survived the night had he not had the emergency operation. The column is worth a full read, as May discussed both his offseason trajectory and the perspective he gained from such a harrowing experience.

Chavis, 29, was a first-round pick by the Red Sox in 2014 and once ranked among the better prospects in Boston’s system. He belted 18 homers as a rookie in 2019, batting .254/.322/.444 in 382 plate appearances that season. However, he also fanned in 33.2% of his plate appearances and, like all hitters, benefited from the juiced ball MLB used during that season, when leaguewide home run records were broken all around the sport. Chavis has struggled considerably since that debut campaign, combining for 804 plate appearances with a .231/.265/.382 output.

Chavis spent the 2024 season in Triple-A between the White Sox and Mariners organizations, hitting much better with the latter (.290/.366/.485, 191 plate appearances) than with the former (.234/.308/.414, 266 plate appearances). He hasn’t appeared in the majors since a 2023 run with the Nationals, where he struggled in a part-time role.

Defensively, Chavis has played all four corner positions and second base, drawing decent or better marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average at first base and second base. He’ll give the Dodgers some right-handed power who can back up multiple positions around the diamond and be stashed in Triple-A, assuming he doesn’t break camp with the club.

García had mixed results in 2024. The hard-throwing sinkerballer pitched reasonably well for the Angels early in the year. Signed to a $4.25MM free agent deal, he pitched his way into a setup capacity for Halos skipper Ron Washington. García turned in a 3.71 earned run average through 43 2/3 innings. He posted roughly average strikeout (22%) and walk (7.7%) rates with a strong 51.2% ground-ball percentage. García recorded four saves and 11 holds while only relinquishing two leads.

As a veteran rental on a non-competitive team, García was an obvious deadline trade candidate. It nevertheless registered as a surprise that the Halos were able to get four players from the Red Sox when they flipped him. Boston didn’t part with any top-end talents, but they included a trio of players (Niko Kavadas, Ryan Zeferjahn and Matthew Lugo) who were on the doorstep of the majors. Kavadas and Zeferjahn each debuted with the Halos after the trade, with the latter performing well to put himself in consideration for an Opening Day bullpen job.

The deal didn’t work out well for Boston. García missed a couple weeks late in the season with elbow inflammation. He was tagged for 15 runs across 15 1/3 innings in a Sox uniform. That pushed his season ERA to an unimpressive 4.88 mark through 59 frames. The tough finish evidently prevented him from finding a guaranteed deal as he enters his age-38 season.

García nevertheless makes for an intriguing depth option. He has gotten grounders on at least half the batted balls he has allowed in each of the last three years. Despite his age, García still throws hard. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater with the Halos and had a velocity uptick in Boston even though he battled the minor elbow concern. He’d have a tough time cracking the Dodger bullpen if everyone’s healthy but adds an experienced depth piece with Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips each delayed in camp.

Kershaw’s 2025 timeline has never been clear until now. He announced in early November that he would require some surgical work on his lower left leg. Part of that was due to a bone spur in the big toe on his left foot, which sent him to the IL last year. The surgeries would also address a ruptured plantar plate and a torn meniscus in his knee. It was never expressly laid out when Kershaw expected to return, though there’s now at least a vague target.

Players can be placed on the 60-day IL once pitchers and catchers report to spring training, so several players are already there, including Dodgers like Gavin Stone and River Ryan. Kershaw could follow them there but the 60-day count doesn’t begin until Opening Day. IL transactions can be backdated three days, so teams will only put guys on the 60-day if they don’t expect them to be healthy in the first 57 days of the season.

The Dodgers start the schedule a little bit earlier than most teams, as they and the Cubs are facing off in the Tokyo Series this year. Two regular season games between those teams will take place on March 18th and 19th, while the 28 other teams will play their first regular season game March 27.

The update from Kershaw makes the rotation picture a little less crowded in the short term. As of right now, the Dodgers project to have a six-man starting staff consisting of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. They will start the season with Shohei Ohtani acting as the designated hitter but not pitching. He didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and also required surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in the fall. He is expected to be back on the mound in May and it seems Kershaw’s timeline is similar.

It’s theoretically possible the Dodgers will have too many rotation options at times this summer. Once Kershaw and Ohtani are back in the mix, they could have eight viable candidates for six spots. Sasaki and Gonsolin are the only two who can be optioned to the minors. It seems highly unlikely Sasaki will be sent down at any point, given that he’s already considered an ace-level talent. Gonsolin is also just 20 days away from five years of MLB service time, at which point he would have the right to refuse being optioned.

However, there are also health concerns all throughout the group, so it seems fair to wonder how often six or more of them will be healthy at any given time. May and Gonsolin missed all of 2024 recovering from surgery. Snell only pitched 104 innings last year and has only hit 130 twice in his career. Yamamoto’s first MLB season saw him spend a lot of time on the IL, only getting to 90 innings. Glasnow set a personal best last year by getting to 134. Sasaki never hit 130 innings in any of his seasons in Japan.

It’s an extreme quality-over-quantity group, so it will be interesting to see if it ever feels truly crowded. If significant injuries pile up, the club also has Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius as optionable guys on the roster who should be in the Triple-A rotation.

For Kershaw personally, he will be looking take on a sizable workload for the first time in a while. It used to be his norm to log about 230 innings in a season but he hasn’t done that since 2015 and he hasn’t hit 132 since 2019. He did get to 131 2/3 in 2023 but was clearly working with diminished stuff and required shoulder surgery in the offseason. He returned from that procedure to make seven starts in July and August of last year but then went back on the IL due to the foot issues and finished the year with just 30 innings pitched.

Missing the first few weeks of 2025 will prevent him from having a massive workload this year but he could certainly go well beyond those 30 frames if things go according to plan. As for what’s beyond that, it seems the future Hall-of-Famer isn’t making any decisions yet. He tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he plans to go year to year, as opposed to putting a firm timeline on how many more seasons he plans to play in.

Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.

In all, that $7.5MM base can more than double to $16MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season.

Feb. 11: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw have agreed to terms on a new deal, reports Alden González of ESPN. It was previously relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times that the lefty is in camp with the club. The deal isn’t official yet because the Excel Sports Management client still has to undergo a physical. The details of the new agreement aren’t yet publicly known. The Dodgers will need to open a 40-man spot but have several candidates to be moved to the 60-day injured list.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise at all. The future Hall-of-Famer has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point. He has gone into free agency multiple times and always re-signed. There has occasionally been some thought that he would like to join the Rangers, since he’s from the Dallas area, but that’s never come to fruition. On the heels of the Dodgers winning the most recent World Series, he declared himself a “Dodger for life.”

Kershaw, 37 in March, did turn down a $10MM player option for the 2025 season. Still, that seemed to be more of a formality, based on the strong relationship between him and the franchise. Even though he walked away from that money, the industry expectation has been that the two sides would reunite on some kind of new deal. As recently has a few weeks ago, it was reported that the two sides were interested in a reunion.

His current health situation is unknown. In early November, when he made the “Dodger for life” comment, Kershaw also relayed some details of upcoming surgeries. He told reporters at that time that he was to have work done on both his left toe and his left knee. He had dealt with bone spurs in his big toe during the season and also revealed after the campaign that he had a torn meniscus and a ruptured plantar plate that needed to be addressed.

It’s possible that his new deal will come with various incentives based on his output, as was the case the last time he re-signed with the Dodgers. He had surgery going into last winter and wasn’t expected to come back until midway through the 2024 schedule. He signed a deal with a modest $10MM guarantee over 2024 and 2025, with the latter year being a player option. Based on his 2024 appearances, he could earn an extra $7.5MM in 2024, as well as potentially bumping the $5MM option as high as $20MM. There were also incentives based on his 2025 appearances that could have allowed him to earn as much as $25MM on the year.

Kershaw only ended up throwing 30 innings over seven starts last year, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine. He started the season on the IL while still recovering from that shoulder surgery, getting reinstated in late July. But he was back on the IL by the end of August due to his toe issues and finished the season there. That wasn’t a huge showing but it was enough to get the base of his player option up to $10MM. Though he went back under the knife for his lower body injuries, he still felt comfortable enough turning that down, though he and the club will surely figure out some new arrangement that works for both.

Though it’s not a surprise to see Kershaw back with the club, there’s still some mystery about what’s next. As mentioned, it’s unclear if he’s fully healthy now or if he’s still working his way back from his most recent procedure.

On paper, the Dodgers have a robust collection of rotation options. They currently have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow taking up four spots. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be in the mix as well. Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to be ready by Opening Day but could be back on the hill in May.

The club seems likely to run a six-man rotation. That’s partially due to Sasaki making the move from Japan, where starting pitchers only throw once a week. On top of that, basically everyone else in their pile of starters has workload concerns. Snell only got to 104 innings last year and has only twice gone beyond 130. Yamamoto spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL and only got to 90 frames. Glasnow got to 134, which was a career high for him. May, Gonsolin and Ohtani were recovering from respective surgeries, with no one of that trio pitching last year.

Throw Kershaw into the mix and its eight starters for six spots, before even mentioning pitchers like Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius, who all have options and are likely to be in the minors as depth.

Given all the health question marks throughout the group, it’s unlikely to expect everyone to be healthy for the entire season, but there may be times where players get squeezed. Moving to the bullpen isn’t easy either, as the club is a bit squeezed there as well. With a six-man rotation, the club can only have seven relievers, given the 13-pitcher roster limit. Ohtani counts as a two-way player and will eventually allow them to have 14 pitchers, but he won’t be pitching to start the year.

The bullpen chart currently includes Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. No one in that group can be optioned except for Vesia, who had a 1.76 ERA last year. The bullpen is tight enough that Ryan Brasier recently got designated for assignment and flipped to the Cubs.

Time will tell how the Dodgers balance the juggling act, though the pressure on the 40-man roster is about to ease. Now that they have opened camp, they are allowed to transfer players to the 60-day injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are likely bound for the IL soon, with each recovering from a significant surgery. The Dodgers will need a roster spot for Kershaw once this becomes official, but that will still leave them with three roster spots to play with.

Financially, RosterResource has the Dodgers at a $383MM payroll and $386MM competitive balance tax figure. Those are both franchise records and tops in the league by wide margins, but the club seems to have few limits right now. They have international star power from Ohtani and various other players on the roster, with a decade-plus run of postseason appearances, in addition to being reigning world champions. The cash flow situation seems to be incredibly healthy, with the ownership group willing to pump a lot of that money back into the roster.

Even with the lack of surgery, Phillips could be IL-bound to begin the season, Plunkett writes. A follow-up MRI in December revealed significant healing but still some damage. Phillips has been limited in his offseason throwing program but said yesterday that he hopes to be on a mound “soon.”

The 30-year-old Phillips is a key member of the Dodgers’ late-inning relief corps when healthy. He picked up 18 saves in 2024 and another 24 saves the year prior. During his three full seasons as a Dodger, the former Braves, Orioles and Rays castoff has posted a 2.21 ERA with a big 29.6% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.5% walk rate. Phillips has saved 44 games overall and also been credited with 34 holds. He’s earning $6.1MM this year in his penultimate season of club control before reaching free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s a similarly murky update on fellow late-inning righty Michael Kopech. The Dodgers quickly moved to downplay a report that their deadline bullpen acquisition from last summer would miss a month to begin the season. GM Brandon Gomes at the time said that the team hadn’t seen “anything of concern yet” with regard to Kopech’s reportedly ailing forearm. To be fair to the team, there’s still no firm indication Kopech will be out a month, but manager Dave Roberts today conceded that Kopech, like Phillips, is “a little behind schedule” and is not a lock to be on the Opening Day roster (via The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya).

Like Phillips, Kopech played a key role in the Dodger bullpen after struggling with another organization. He posted a lackluster 4.73 ERA with the White Sox despite a huge 30.9% strikeout rate. Command was an issue with the South Siders, evidenced by a 12.6% walk rate, but a pitcher with Kopech’s raw stuff and former prospect pedigree seemed like he should fare better than he was with the ChiSox.

His fortunes indeed turned almost immediately after the trade. Kopech posted a microscopic 1.13 earned run average in 24 innings with Los Angeles. His 33% strikeout rate was a slight improvement, as was his 11.4% walk rate, but that walk rate was still about three percentage points higher than average. Kopech enjoyed a significant uptick in his opponents’ swinging-strike rate and chase rate, however, which adds some legitimacy to the improvement. He’s not going to sustain the ridiculous .167 average on balls in play or 91% strand rate he enjoyed with the Dodgers, but Kopech’s power arsenal and bat-missing abilities should make him a key arm for Roberts in the right-hander’s final season before free agency — assuming this forearm issue indeed proves minor.

The Dodgers, of course, made several meaningful splashes in the bullpen this winter, which will help to offset any missed time for Phillips and Kopech. In addition to re-signing Blake Treinen on a two-year deal, they gave out the largest contract for any reliever this winter when signing Tanner Scott on a four-year, $72MM deal. That pair will be joined by right-hander Kirby Yates, who inked a one-year, $13MM pact.

Hernandez, 33, returns to Los Angeles for a ninth season in Dodger blue. The veteran utility man got his start as a sixth-round pick by the Astros back in 2009 and debuted with the club in 2014, but was traded to the Marlins midseason before being flipped to L.A. prior to the 2015 season. Hernandez quickly became an instrumental part of the Dodgers’ roster. His versatility has allowed him to appear at every position on the diamond except for catcher in a Dodgers uniform, and his first six-season stint with the club saw him hit a respectable .240/.312/.425 (98 wRC+) from 2015 to 2020. That includes an excellent 122 wRC+ against southpaws, and Hernandez was a regular fixture in the club’s lineup against left-handed pitching throughout his first stint in California.

Hernandez’s first foray into free agency following the Dodgers’ 2020 World Series championship led him to sign with the Red Sox on a two-year, $14MM deal before he was extended for an additional year and $10MM. Hernandez actually had the best season of his career in Boston during the 2021 campaign, when he slashed .250/.337/.449 (109 wRC+) while splitting time between center field and second base for the Red Sox en route to a campaign worth 3.7 fWAR and 5.0 bWAR. Hernandez struggled badly for the club after that first brilliant year, however, and hit just .222/.286/.330 (68 wRC+) over his final year and a half in a Red Sox uniform.

That led to a trade back to the Dodgers, with whom he’s started to look once again like a more viable bench bat. His overall slash line of .240/.289/.389 (87 wRC+) since rejoining the Dodgers at the 2023 trade deadline is still below average, and since returning to Los Angeles he’s actually played as a more or less split-neutral hitter after for years hitting much better against southpaws. With that being said, he remains as versatile as ever in the field. He’s also had a history of being a quality postseason contributor, with a .278/.353/.522 career slash line in the playoffs. Those postseason heroics haven’t disappeared even as the rest of his game has taken a step backwards in recent years, and Hernandez slashed .294/.357/.451 in 14 postseason games for the Dodgers during their World Series championship run last year.

Hernandez’s combination of versatility, postseason track record, and status as a fan favorite and beloved clubhouse presence were enough to convince the Dodgers to bring him back into the fold for a ninth season in spite of an already very crowded mix of position players. As things stand, Hernandez appears to fit best as a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging infielders Hyeseong Kim and Max Muncy, though that same role also applies to veteran infielder Miguel Rojas, who is generally regarded as a superior defender to Hernandez on the dirt. Perhaps Hernandez could back up Tommy Edman in center field and serve as a right-handed complement to Michael Conforto in the outfield, though fellow utility veteran Chris Taylor and outfield youngster Andy Pages both figure to compete for a similar role this spring as well. However Hernandez ultimately ends up fitting into the club’s day-to-day plans, his return could leave Pages and James Outman on the outside looking for the Dodgers’ roster, set to at least start the 2025 season in Triple-A barring a surprise decision to part ways with Taylor, Rojas, or another more established player.

Hernandez first announced the deal on social media. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that it was a one-year contract, while Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was first on the $6.5MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

It’s a homecoming for Zaidi, 48, as he has worked for the Dodgers before. He got his start in the Athletics organization but was hired by the Dodgers in November of 2014, working as general manager under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.

Four years later, Zaidi was hired away by a divisional rival. The Giants made him president of baseball operations for that club in November of 2018. His first two seasons in San Francisco weren’t remarkable, with the club finishing just below .500 in 2019 and 2020. But in 2021, the club amazingly won 107 games, narrowly edging the Dodgers for the division title. Unfortunately, they couldn’t keep that going, finishing the next three seasons with a win total in the 79 to 81 range. At the end of September, Zaidi was fired and replaced by Buster Posey.

In December, it was reported that Zaidi was in talks to come back to the Dodgers in some capacity, which has now come to fruition. A person who has led a baseball operations department will often take on a lesser role as a sort of temporary measure, waiting for another opportunity to open up. Alex Anthopoulos was the general manager of the Blue Jays through the 2015 season, then took a role as vice-president of baseball operations with the Dodgers. He departed a little over a year later when a chance opened up to run the baseball operations department in Atlanta.

Based on Zaidi’s title in this role, it seems fair to assume that this will also be a bit less hands-on than his other recent gigs. He can contribute to the Dodgers a bit while keeping himself available for future front office opportunities that might open up. Walter is also a co-owner of the Premier League club Chelsea, the Los Angeles Sparks of the WNBA, in addition to owning the Professional Women’s Hockey League. Zaidi’s new role will also see him contributing to those ventures in some undefined way.

That Scott would get the nod over Yates isn’t a complete surprise given the southpaw’s $72MM contract and his utterly dominant work over the past two seasons. The lefty has pitched to a 2.04 ERA in 150 innings of work with a 2.53 FIP over the past two seasons, picking up 34 saves in 40 chances along the way. He’s struck out 31.3% of his opponents in that time while walking 10%. Those dominant numbers should be good enough to close for just about any team, and that two-season track record can be argued to give Scott a leg up over Yates in terms of consistency, given that the right-hander pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.28 ERA with a lackluster 4.63 FIP in 61 appearances for the Braves in 2023.

With that being said, however, it’s fair to note that Yates has more experience in the closer role that Scott does. The soon to be 38-year-old veteran racked up nearly as many saves last year (33) as Scott did over the past two seasons, and led the majors in saves with the Padres back in 2019. While both pitchers have been used outside of the closer role throughout their careers, Yates is more entrenched in the ninth inning than Scott is. After all, Scott was moved out of the closer role in deference to San Diego’s hard-throwing righty Robert Suarez down the stretch just last summer, and was only used in the ninth inning or later for about a third of his total appearances with the Marlins in 2023. Yates also arguably had an even more dominant 2024 campaign than Scott did, as he pitched to an eye-popping 1.17 ERA with a 2.50 FIP and 35.9% strikeout rate for the Rangers last year.

Of course, that’s not to say Yates couldn’t get into some save situations at some point this year. Roberts stopped short of fully anointing Scott as the club’s closer, leaving room for Yates or other experienced late-inning arms like Treinen, Phillips, and Kopech to come in for a save opportunity should a situation call for it. The Dodgers have rarely stayed closely wedded to a full-time closer in the years since Kenley Jansen departed the club during the 2021-22 offseason, with ten or more players recording at least one save for the club in each of the last three seasons. Given that willingness to play matchups late in games rather than rely on a set bullpen hierarchy, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Dodgers continue with that approach to some degree even after investing significant dollars into Scott as their top closing option.

For all the work the Dodgers have gotten done this winter, however, one major piece of the puzzle remains uncompleted: an extension for longtime manager Dave Roberts. Roberts’ contract expires after the 2025 season, and the club’s front office officials have made clear that they intend to keep their veteran skipper around beyond the end of his current contract. In an appearance on the Baseball Tonight podcast with ESPN’s Buster Olney, Roberts revealed that the sides have “just started talking” about an extension, and while his primary focus is on the start of Spring Training he suggested he’s hopeful a deal will get done.

“Hopefully, everything takes care of itself,” Roberts said on the podcast. “But it’s about value. And I love this organization, but yeah, you want to feel your value. Absolutely.”

It’s hard to deny Roberts’s value to the organization. He’s been at the helm for two World Series championships since taking over as skipper prior to the 2016 season, and his Dodgers have made two additional trips to the World Series in 2017 and 2018. Meanwhile, they’ve been dominant in the regular season for his entire tenure with the club: since Roberts took over as manager in L.A. the club has posted an incredible 851-705 record. His .627 career winning percentage as a big league manager (which also includes a one-game stint as skipper of the Padres in 2015) is the best of anyone with at least 1000 MLB games managed, and he’s finished in the top 5 of NL Manager of the Year award voting seven times throughout his career including a win in 2016 as well as second place finishes in both 2017 and 2022.

That Roberts wants to “feel [his] value” when it comes to his next contract is hardly a surprise given that resume, and there’s been an upward trend in salaries for managers around the game recently. Last offseason, longtime Brewers skipper Craig Counsell headed into free agency after not signing a contract extension prior to or during the 2023 season. Once a free agent, Counsell was courted by a number of clubs before ultimately landing with the Cubs on a deal that guaranteed him a record-setting $40MM over five years.

The deal made Counsell the highest-paid manager in the game, and set the stage for well-regarded Red Sox manager Alex Cora to enter the 2024 season without an extension in hand. Cora ultimately extended with the club on a three-year deal that guaranteed him roughly $21.75MM back in July, a deal that seemingly solidified the market for the game’s top managers in the $7-8MM range annually. Roberts is more decorated than either Cora or Counsell as a manager, and while no specifics surrounding the negotiations have been reported at this point it would seem reasonable to expect Roberts to be seeking a deal that at least falls into that range.

While its theoretically possible that Roberts could follow in Cora’s or even Counsell’s footsteps and hold off on signing an extension until later in the 2024 season or even until he reaches free agency this winter, given the Dodgers’ comfort with high-dollar expenditures and comments on both sides of the negotiation suggesting that Roberts staying in the fold is the preferred outcome, it seems more likely that the sides will be able to iron out a deal, perhaps even before the club heads to Tokyo to kick off the 2025 season against the Cubs next month.

This winter has seen a lot of talk around the overlapping issues of competitive balance, a salary cap and player retention. Most of that talk is related to the Dodgers. That club spent heavily last winter on star players, including Shohei Ohtani, then went on to win the 2024 World Series. They followed that up by adding even more star power this winter, signing Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and others. In the wake of the Sasaki signing, MLBTR polled its readers about a salary cap with roughly two thirds of the votes being in favor.

“No,” Manfred said, when asked if the Dodgers are ruining baseball. “I don’t agree with that. The Dodgers are a really well-run, successful organization. Everything that they do and have done is consistent with our rules. They’re trying to give their fans the best possible product.” However, he did make it clear he’s aware of the frustration coming from other fanbases. “I recognize, however, and my email certainly reflects it: There are fans in other markets who are concerned about their teams’ ability to compete, and we always have to be concerned when our fans are concerned about something. But pinning it on the Dodgers, not in that camp.”

As mentioned, the idea of competitive balance or parity has come up a lot in baseball circles lately. Those who believe baseball doesn’t have a parity problem will point to the fact that baseball has been fairly dynasty-proof lately. No club has won consecutive World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees. The Dodgers, for all their might in the regular season, just won a title in a full season for the first time since 1988. Smaller clubs like the Rays, Guardians and Brewers have stayed steadily competitive in recent years.

There are various counter arguments. Per Shaikin, it was discussed at the owners’ meetings that only two clubs outside the top ten markets have managed to win a World Series in the past 20 years: the Cardinals and the Royals. The inability for lesser-spending clubs to retain star players is also a frequent bone of contention in certain fanbases. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, who formerly had the same job with the Brewers, addressed that issue with Mike Mazzeo of Sports Business Journal, vaguely supporting measures to improve player retention without specifics. That was another issue Manfred touched on today.

“Continuity in terms of players in particular markets is an issue that’s relevant to the marketing game,” he said. “Obviously, fans get attached to players, and that’s a great thing. We love that. That’s part of fandom, it’s a good part of fandom. We always try to keep the desire for player continuity in our minds when we’re talking about building a system. By the same token, I’m kind of a free market guy — players at some point in their careers, have to have a right to — I mean they have to — have a right to decide where they want to play.”

The hope of salary cap proponents is that it would help in many of these areas, the idea being that reining in clubs like the Dodgers would increase the chances of smaller clubs keeping fan favorites, as well as helping their prospects of winning on the field.

Getting a salary cap in place, however, would be another matter. It would have to be collectively bargained with the MLB Players Association and the union has long been opposed to a salary cap. The owners made a serious attempt to get a salary cap in place 30 years ago, which led to the 1994-95 strike, during which there was no World Series played for the ’94 season.

In a separate piece at The Athletic, Drellich writes that the owners have been discussing whether or not to push for a salary cap. The current collective bargaining agreement runs until December of 2026, so a cap could potentially come up in negotiations going into the 2027 season.

Whether the owners will be intent on pushing for a cap is a big unknown. Different clubs will naturally have different priorities for CBA talks, depending on their respective financial situations. A club like the Dodgers will be less interested in a salary cap than some of the lower-spending clubs. Drellich reports that the “opinions among owners are mixed.”

Last month, Dodgers president Stan Kasten and Orioles owner David Rubenstein gave different opinions of baseball’s economic landscape. Kasten opined that the Dodgers’ spending is good for baseball while Rubenstein voiced support for a cap. Manfred admitted today that the cap is not the only way to address baseball issues. “I am a huge believer in the idea that there are always multiple solutions to a particular set of concerns,” he said.

The position of the players is more clear. As mentioned, they have long been opposed to a cap, as it would have a negative effect on players’ earning power. Tony Clark, executive director of the MLBPA, attempted to shift the focus to the other end of the spending spectrum. “The league, and the owners it represents, have been predicting doom for decades to justify more restrictions on salaries,” Clark said, “but the game is healthier than it’s ever been. The real question is: Why aren’t all teams, across all markets, using the resources we know they have to put their best foot forward in an effort to be the last team standing?”

Discussions of salary caps often lead to discussions of salary floors, since there are several clubs that are not aggressive at all in terms of spending on players, compared to the Dodgers. The Pirates, for instance, haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent in almost a decade. Their three-year deal for Iván Nova in December of 2016 was their most recent such pact.

Overall, the league is indeed healthy, as Clark alluded to. Since the introduction of the pitch clock, MLB itself has flaunted the increases in fan attendance and TV ratings.  Last month, Maury Brown of Forbes reported that league revenues hit $12.1 billion in 2024, a record high. That doesn’t even include “ancillary revenues attached to the clubs such as mixed-use development in and around ballparks, such as The Battery around Truist Park, home to the Atlanta Braves, club-owned RSNs, or companies such as Legends Hospitality, which is co-owned by the Yankees.”

That league-wide economic health naturally benefits some clubs more than others, particularly when it comes to broadcast revenue. Certain popular clubs such as the Dodgers, Cubs and Yankees have at least partial ownership of their respective regional sports networks (RSNs). Smaller clubs like the Padres, Diamondbacks, Guardians and Twins have had their RSN deals collapse and now have the league handling things, a model that is widely believed to bring in significantly less revenue.

Per Drellich, changing the revenue sharing model is another point of discussion among owners. There are currently 14 clubs* that receive revenue-sharing but the owners could always agree to increase how much money is flowing downhill. Mark Walter, controlling owner of the Dodgers, gave his perspective on that matter to Shaikin. “I don’t think we’re there,” he said. “We’re probably trying to find something that’s in the best interest of everybody.”

Uncertainties in the broadcast model will also have to be a consideration for the owners as they weigh the pros and cons of pushing for a cap. Even if something like a year-long lockout could hypothetically get the players to agree to such a thing, there would likely be significant negative consequences for the league-wide health that was referenced earlier. Broadcast ratings and attendance would surely drop after such a stoppage, as they did after the 1994-95 strike. It has been reported that 2028 will be a big year for the league, as they look to market a large package or packages of games to various broadcasters and/or streamers. A lengthy period of canceled games would likely be hurting the overall attractiveness of the product just before that pivotal moment.

Manfred has said in the past that he is proud of the relative labor peace of his tenure, with no games having been lost due to a strike or lockout. He is not planning to seek another term as commissioner and is therefore slated to be gone by January of 2029. Unless that changes, he would have to be willing to change that track record on his way out the door in order to lead the owners through a significant stoppage.

There are many moving parts and various different ways of looking at all these issues. Players and owners will often have opposing viewpoints. Large-market clubs and smaller clubs will have different priorities, as will star players compared to fringe players. Baseball fans will be sprinkled all over those different camps to varying degrees.

Many in the baseball world believe another lockout is inevitable. The 2021-22 lockout lasted from December to March of that offseason, though the two sides eventually got a deal done just in time to avoid losing games. Given the apparent strife between the owners and players, many believe that a lockout will become rote with future negotiations. That’s a sentiment that Manfred seems to share.

“In a bizarre way, it’s actually a positive,” Manfred said to The Athletic last month. “There is leverage associated with an offseason lockout and the process of collective bargaining under the [National Labor Relations Act] works based on leverage. The great thing about offseason lockouts is the leverage that exists gets applied between the bargaining parties.”

The union sees it differently. “Players know from first-hand experience that a lockout is neither routine nor positive,” Clark said. “It’s a weapon, plain and simple, implemented to pressure players and their families by taking away a player’s ability to work.”

The two sides could always start talks well in advance of the end of the current CBA, though Manfred downplayed the possibility. “I’m one that likes to bargain early, but we’re still two years away, even if you’re thinking you want to bargain early,” Manfred said. “We got time on that front. And I think the time is particularly important right now, because we do have things going on in terms of the economics of the game — local media being the principal one — that the longer we wait, the more it evolves, the better decisions we’re going to make.”

Drellich also relayed another formality of this week’s meetings, noting that Athletics owner John Fisher and Mets owner Steve Cohen have been added to the owners’ executive council. Those two replace John Middleton of the Phillies and John Sherman of the Royals. The six continuing members of the eight-member council are Paul Dolan of the Guardians, John Henry of the Red Sox, Greg Johnson of the Giants, Ken Kendrick of the Diamondbacks, Arte Moreno of the Angels and Bruce Sherman of the Marlins.

* (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays)