That being said, we’re not going to fall into the trap of hyping up early performances. Even a 60-game test is only so significant. Teams will be weighing past track record along with determinations of present skill.

All of this creates a perfect storm for a player who could end up being the most interesting potential free agent: Nick Castellanos of the Reds. He only donned the uniform for regular season action for the first time a couple of weeks ago, but it’s already time for the still-youthful slugger to ponder the future.

What’s fascinating in this case is the combination of intriguing factors at play. Agent Scott Boras negotiated a pair of opt out opportunities into the Castellanos deal, allowing him to exit after 2020 or 2021. At 28 years of age, the outfielder still has a good bit of prime left to market.

On the other side is the swirling economic uncertainty. We know Mookie Betts still got a huge deal, but he could be a special case and he surely could’ve commanded more in “normal” times. It’s anyone’s guess how the season will play out, how 2021 will shape up, and how MLB owners will spend. Oh, and let’s not forget the other looming threat: labor unrest.

You can be sure that Boras is aware of all of these things. He’s always ready to go to battle. Castellanos is no shrinking violet either.

That’s why it’s so notable that Castellanos is mashing early on, with a league-leading five home runs and ridiculous .912 slugging percentage through ten games. He’s leading baseball (minimum 20 plate appearances) with a 261 wRC+ and has left Statcast agog at the contact quality. Lest we forget, Castellanos also turned in a monster second half in 2019. It doesn’t take a Boras-sized imagination to envision the narrative potential. If Castellanos ends up with huge numbers in a truncated 2020, Boras will be primed to argue that his client has been among the very best hitters in baseball over his past 162 games.

This could yet play out in so many different ways. Castellanos could fizzle, or just step back into his typically very productive levels of output. But you can see the potential for a unique bonanza even in spite of the broader uncertainty. The Reds might feel compelled to do what it takes to keep him around if he helps lead a magical season. The market will not feature Betts since he’s locked in with the Dodgers. George Springer remains, but hasn’t been knocking the socks off the ball early. It is fair to note that Marcell Ozuna has also been hot, right along with Castellanos, but there’s room for multiple corner outfielders to earn.

The biggest remaining wild card? It may be in the collective bargaining. Beyond the potential for a breakdown in negotiations, the next agreement is sure to come with major modifications of incentives that will have to be parsed closely by Boras and other agents.

But that’s not all. The designated hitter role could be absolutely critical to Castellanos’s outlook in a hypothetical return trip to free agency. That’s now in the game, but only for the unique 2020 season. Odds are it’ll be negotiated into the next CBA as a permanent fixture. If that happens, it’d be quite the boon for market interest in Castellanos. Teams would surely feel much more comfortable investing knowing that they could not only limit his exposure to the outfield grass in the early stages of a deal — while improved, Castellanos is still generally lightly regarded with the glove — but shift him into primary DH duties whenever appropriate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

GM Rick Hahn said back in May that “it’s certainly very likely that [Abreu will] be here” once the Sox emerge from their rebuilding phase.  Abreu himself has expressed his desire to remain on the South Side on multiple occasions, and even said in August that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had unofficially promised to keep him in the organization.  So, while the two sides didn’t discuss an extension during the season, it still wouldn’t be a shocker to see Abreu and the Sox reach a new deal while the club still has exclusive negotiating rights (Abreu won’t file for free agency until five days after the end of the World Series).

That said, the lack of known movement towards a new contract could be some due diligence on the team’s part, as they weigh the pros and cons of re-signing a player who will turn 33 in January, and has only been pretty good rather than great over the last two seasons.

After Abreu’s first four MLB seasons resulted in a .301/.359/.524 slash line and 124 homers in 2660 plate appearances, the slugger’s production took a step backwards in 2018 and 2019.  Injuries played a role in Abreu’s relative struggles in 2018, though it’s worth noting that his 2019 wRC+ (117) was only a touch higher than his 2018 production (115 wRC+).

Abreu’s 40.7% hard-hit ball rate in 2019 was the highest of his career, and he finished in the 94th percentile of all hitters in exit velocity.  He also ranked in at least the top 18 percent of hitters in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and had a career-best 12.8% barrel percentage.

On the down side, Abreu has only a .328 on-base percentage over the last two seasons, and his 21.9% strikeout rate was the highest of his career.  He has never been much of a baserunner, limiting his ability to beat out grounders despite the fact that opposing teams rarely deploy a shift against him.  However, opposing pitchers have been feeding Abreu an increasingly large number of sliders over the last two seasons, with increasing success — Abreu had only an 89 wRC+ against sliders in 2018 and a 66 wRC+ against the pitch this year.

Beyond the Statcast numbers, there’s also the simpler lefty/righty split, as the right-handed hitting Abreu has been increasingly less-effective against right-handed pitching.  2019 marked the first time that Abreu was a below-average 99 wRC+) run producer against righties, dropping down from an also so-so 107 wRC+ in 2018.

There are enough question marks here for interested suitors to be wary of signing Abreu to a pricey multi-year pact in free agency.  Despite the fact that Abreu looks like the clear best option (unless the Cubs inexplicably cut Anthony Rizzo free) in a relatively thin market of free agent first basemen, teams have shown that they are increasingly unwilling to pay big money for anything less than an elite production from the first base/DH positions.

Plus, the White Sox hold some significant leverage on Abreu’s market in the form of the qualifying offer.  If Abreu was to reject Chicago’s one-year/$17.8MM offer, a new team would have to give up a draft pick in order to sign him, which could give even more clubs pause.  Issuing the QO results in three potential scenarios, two of which are good for the White Sox — either the draft pick compensation depresses Abreu’s market to the point that they can re-sign him at more of a club-friendly price, or perhaps Abreu simply accepts the qualifying offer and the Sox retain a player they like but not at a multi-year commitment.

The third scenario, of course, would be that the Sox recoup a draft pick via the QO but Abreu signs elsewhere, which would be no small loss given Abreu’s mentorship role on a young White Sox team.  As Hahn himself said, “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.”  Perhaps moreso than most teams, the White Sox are a bit more old-school in their approach, and thus are more prone to go out of their way to keep a player who continues the Frank Thomas/Paul Konerko tradition of a franchise cornerstone first baseman, especially as the team looks to finally get back into contention in the AL Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Gerrit Cole, RHP:

• Fittingly, Cole rivals a National – third baseman Anthony Rendon – as arguably the best pending free agent set to reach the market. Cole’s coming off a 326-strikeout, potential AL Cy Young-winning season at the age of 29 – not to mention a mostly legendary fall – so no one should be surprised if he surpasses or even crushes David Price (seven years, $217MM) for the richest contract a pitcher has ever received. The type of money Cole looks likely to command could end up being too much for Houston, meaning the organization should savor every remaining pitch the superstar throws in its uniform.

Robinson Chirinos, C:

• While Cole’s likely on his way out of Houston, it wouldn’t be remotely shocking to see the team retain Chirinos. Signed to a $5.75MM guarantee last winter after the in-state rival Rangers cut him loose, the 35-year-old Chirinos has turned in yet another respectable campaign at the plate. Although Chirinos’ reputation as a defender isn’t great, he has at least one key advocate in Astros co-ace Justin Verlander. Chirinos is Verlander’s personal catcher, and manager A.J. Hinch told Dan Shulman of ESPN last week that the two have an incredibly strong bond. Regardless of whether Chirinos sticks with Verlander and the Astros, he should do better on his next contract, perhaps having performed well enough to earn a deal in the two-year, $10MM to $12MM vicinity.

Wade Miley, LHP:

• Like Chirinos, Miley’s another bargain offseason pickup who has panned out for the Astros. True, Miley didn’t crack their ALCS or World Series rosters. Nevertheless, it’s hard to argue with the regular-season value he gave the team after signing for $4.5MM over the winter. Miley, 32, logged a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate over 167 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, his expected weighted on-base average against (.301) checked in below the real wOBA hitters posted off him (.314). Exciting? Not really. Good enough for another guaranteed deal (maybe even a multiyear pact)? Sure.

Will Harris, RP:

• There don’t seem to be too many relievers who are more underrated than Harris, a 35-year-old coming off yet another regular season of strong production. Harris amassed 60 innings of 1.50 ERA ball (with a lesser but still-impressive 3.15 FIP), recorded 9.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, and put up a terrific 54.6 percent grounder rate. Harris is now quietly one of the top soon-to-be free-agent relievers out there, so despite his age, he’s another candidate for a two-year accord.

Joe Smith, RP:

• Smith, 35, joins Harris as a veteran reliever whose quality career has flown somewhat under the radar. He sat out until mid-July this year after suffering a ruptured left Achilles last winter, but the soft-tossing Smith returned to post a Harris-esque 1.80 ERA/3.09 FIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent grounder rate across 25 regular-season frames. Smith has been similarly tough in the postseason, having piled up 6 1/3 frames of one-run ball. While he probably doesn’t have Harris’ earning upside, Smith should at least be able to land a decent-paying one-year contract.

Hector Rondon, RP:

• Hey, here’s another proven reliever whom the Astros are at risk of losing. Rondon, however, wasn’t nearly as difficult on opposing hitters as Harris and Smith were during the regular season, nor has the team leaned on him in the playoffs. The 31-year-old’s regular campaign consisted of 60 2/3 frames of 3.71 ERA/4.96 FIP ball with 7.12 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 50 percent grounder rate. Compared to 2018, Rondon’s strikeout rate fell nearly 4 percent and his HR-to-fly ball percentage more than doubled, though he still pumped heat upward of 96 mph. He looks to be a decent bet for a relatively inexpensive one-year deal once the offseason arrives.

Martin Maldonado, C:

• Let’s move back behind the plate to discuss Maldonado, whom the Astros have acquired via trade in back-to-back summers. They reportedly tried to keep the then-free agent with a two-year, $12MM offer last offseason, but he declined and ended up settling for a $2.5MM guarantee with the Royals. Financially, it didn’t work out, and after another year in which Maldonado combined below-average offense with plus defense, it’s easy to imagine him winding up with a second straight payday in the $2.5MM range.

Collin McHugh, RHP:

• McHugh entered 2019 with several years’ experience as a sturdy starter and one season (’18) of excellence as a reliever under his belt, but things went haywire. The 32-year-old faltered in his return to a starting role early in the season. Between that and the elbow issues he dealt with, the Astros moved McHugh back to their bullpen. He was much more effective in that position, though McHugh’s season came to a premature end in September because of more elbow troubles. Needless to say, the long-solid McHugh’s about to hit free agency at the wrong time.

Anthony Rendon, 3B:

• I’m not going to tell you anything you don’t already know in regards to Rendon. The 29-year-old is coming off yet another world-class season, perhaps an MVP-level campaign, and is finally getting the national recognition his play has long warranted. As hands down the premier soon-to-be free-agent position player, Rendon has a strong case for a guarantee worth $225MM or more.

Brian Dozier, 2B:

• Dozier was an elite second baseman with the Twins for a few years leading up to 2018, but he hasn’t been the same player dating back to then. After a down season divided between the Twins and Dodgers, the Nationals signed Dozier to a one-year, $9MM contract last winter. Dozier enjoyed somewhat of a bounce-back regular season, hitting .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs and 1.7 fWAR in 482 plate appearances. That’s still not great production, though, and odds are the 32-year-old will have to settle for another single-season guarantee (very likely for less money) in his next trip to free agency.

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/3B:

• As with Dozier, Kendrick’s likely heading for a one-year deal. However, in Kendrick’s case, that has far more to do with age than performance. After all, the long-solid Kendrick, 36, has been an offensive machine all season. Kendrick slashed a jaw-dropping .344/.395/.572 with 17 homers in 370 PA during the regular campaign, when Statcast more than backed up his bottom-line output. Just four qualified hitters (some names you may recognize in Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and Nelson Cruz) outdid Kendrick’s .418 expected weighted on-base average. Kendrick has further cemented himself in Washington lore with a productive postseason, with his decisive grand slam in Game 5 of the team’s NLDS victory over the Dodgers sure to count among the franchise’s greatest moments for decades to come.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/3B:

• The 33-year-old Cabrera has been an outstanding in-season pickup for Washington, which grabbed him off the scrapheap after Texas released him in early August. Cabrera was only a .235/.318/.393 hitter at that point, but he slashed an excellent .323/.404/.565 in 146 regular-season PA after donning a Nats uniform. Cabrera’s D.C. production should be enough to earn him another guaranteed deal in the offseason.

Gerardo Parra, OF:

• It’s hard to believe, but Parra has turned into a folk hero in Washington since the club brought him on a low-cost deal toward the beginning of May. At that point, Parra was the owner of a paltry .546 OPS and someone the Giants understandably jettisoned despite obvious needs in their outfield. Not only has Parra hit a much-improved .250/.300/.447 in 204 trips to the plate since then, but his “Baby Shark” intro has helped make him a fan and clubhouse favorite. It doesn’t look as if Parra would be a bad investment on what’s sure to be another low-paying deal.

Daniel Hudson, RP:

• The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t appear to be an exciting addition for the Nationals when they acquired him from the Blue Jays at the July trade deadline, but he has since established himself an indispensable part of their bullpen. Hudson pitched to a 1.44 ERA (with a 3.53 FIP) and totaled 23 strikeouts against two walks in 25 regular-season innings as a Nat. The brilliance has largely continued in the postseason for the 32-year-old, who has thrown seven frames of one-earned run ball and converted all four of his save chances. Hudson had to settle for a $1.5MM contract with the Jays right before the season started, but he should do far better next time. A two-year deal in the $10MM range could be in the offing this winter.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP:

• Hellickson was a quality member of the Nationals’ pitching staff in 2018, which led the club to bring back the former AL Rookie of the Year on a $1.3MM guarantee last winter. At that price, it was a gamble worth taking for the Nationals, but it didn’t work out. The 32-year-old Hellickson struggled into May before missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Assuming Hellickson signs somewhere in the offseason, he’ll be getting a minor league pact.

Fernando Rodney, RP:

• This season has been a wild ride for the 42-year-old Rodney, who bombed with the Athletics in the early going, got his release in late May, signed a minors deal with the Nats a week later and is now part of a World Series roster. The nomadic arrow slinger tossed 33 1/3 regular-season innings of 4.05 ERA/3.72 FIP ball and posted 9.5 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 after the Nationals brought him up in late June. Rodney has added 2 2/3 scoreless frames during the playoffs. Will that be enough for Rodney to pick up a major league deal over the winter? Perhaps, but he’s obviously not going to break the bank.

Jonny Venters, RP:

• Venters, who has seemingly overcome one awful injury after another during his career, will have to do so yet again. No stranger to the operating table, Venters underwent yet another serious procedure (on a torn capsule in his left shoulder) in August. The 34-year-old’s career could conceivably be over, though he’ll try to get off the mat one more time.

Pittsburgh is among the teams that will be looking for help behind the plate during the upcoming offseason. The problem for the Pirates and others is that there’s a pittance of slam-dunk starters who are scheduled to reach the open market. With just over a month left in the regular season, here’s a rundown of how the game’s soon-to-be free-agent backstops have performed this year…

The Gold Standard:

• Yasmani Grandal, Brewers: It was a strange offseason last winter for Grandal. Even though the Dodgers issued him a qualifying offer, he still landed a proposal in the four-year, $60MM range from the Mets. But Grandal passed, which forced him to eventually settle for the Brewers’ one-year, $18.25MM guarantee. The deal includes a $16MM mutual option for 2020, but Grandal’s sure to decline his half of it on the heels of another quality season. The switch-hitting 30-year-old has yet again paired easily above-average offense with well-regarded work behind the plate. Grandal’s .253/.380/.460 line with 20 home runs in 503 plate appearances has kept him among the game’s premier offensive catchers, while he’s near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. The Brewers won’t be able to issue Grandal a qualifying offer after the season, which only makes it more likely that he’ll reel in a lucrative multiyear deal over the winter.

Regulars:

• Jason Castro, Twins: Castro’s closing out a three-year, $24MM with Minnesota, which – aside from an injury-ruined 2018 – has gotten decent overall production from the former Astro. This year’s version is showing more power than ever, with a career-high .228 ISO. Castro, 32, also boasts a .244/.327/.472 line with 12 HRs through 224 PA. Known primarily for his defensive prowess, Castro’s having another fine season in that realm. A return to Minnesota in 2020 seems unlikely, though, as fellow Twins catcher Mitch Garver has emerged as one of baseball’s supreme breakout players this season.
• Travis d’Arnaud, Rays: The Mets released d’Arnaud, a former star prospect, early in the season. Their loss has been an enormous gain for the Rays, who had been counting on offseason pickup Mike Zunino to perform respectably as their No. 1 catcher. Zunino has been awful, however, which has allowed d’Arnaud to put himself back on the map in Tampa Bay. The 30-year-old has batted a sturdy .261/.328/.469 with 13 homers in 271 attempts as a Ray, and has finally stayed healthy after multiple injury-laden seasons. Although d’Arnaud is more a middle-of-the-pack defender than a high-end one, it nonetheless appears he’s on his way to a solid offseason payday.
• Robinson Chirinos, Astros: If you’re looking for some affordable offensive pop from your catcher, Chirinos is a good choice. Just don’t expect defensive brilliance from the 35-year-old. Chirinos, whom the Rangers non-tendered last winter, has given the Astros a 373 PA of .236/.342/.428 hitting with 14 long balls. It’s the fifth straight season of above-average production at the plate from Chirinos.

On the Fringe:

• Brian McCann, Braves: Now 35, the seven-time All-Star can still play. In his return to Atlanta, the site of his greatest individual success, McCann has hit .264/.336/.423 and smacked 10 homers in 274 trips to the plate, though the lefty’s unplayable versus same-handed pitchers. Defensively, although McCann has thrown out a mere 14 percent of would-be base thieves, Baseball Prospectus has looked kindly on his overall work. McCann should get another guaranteed one-year deal in the offseason if he wants, but perhaps he’ll decide to call it quits.
• Martin Maldonado, Astros: Maldonado’s defensive skills are well-documented, but whether he hits enough to serve as a regular is debatable. The 33-year-old has batted a less-than-stellar .210/.284/.360 in 319 PA this season, but it does seem likely he’ll get a major league deal over the winter. He turned down two years and $12MM from Houston last offseason before signing with Kansas City for $2.5MM, after all, and was then in demand around this year’s trade deadline. Two teams (the Cubs and then the Astros) swung deals for him last month.

Potentially Useful 30-Somethings:

• Alex Avila, Diamondbacks: A team looking for a capable backup could do a lot worse than Avila. He has been a better-than-average defender two years running, per BP’s FRAA metric, and has yet again performed well with the bat. The walk-heavy lefty has drawn free passes just under 20 percent of the time this season en route to a .223/.377/.488 showing through 151 PA. Avila’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old who has extreme difficulty against same-handed pitchers, so he’s not going to come at a high price.
• Russell Martin, Dodgers: Martin has been one of the premier catchers in baseball for a large portion of his career, which began in 2006, but the 36-year-old’s offensive efficacy is fading. The always patient Martin has gotten on base at a .330 clip this year, though his average is barely above the Mendoza line, his slugging percentage is a point under .300 and his ISO is below .100. At the very least, though, Martin’s a still-useful defender and a well-respected teammate.
• Jonathan Lucroy, Cubs: Lucroy may be able to get a major league contract in the offseason, as he did when the Cubs signed him this month after the Angels released him, but his days as a viable starter are clearly over. Formerly an elite all-around backstop, the 33-year-old falls well short as a hitter and defender nowadays. However, Lucroy’s modest-looking line of .245/.313/368 in 300 PA does amount to an 83 wRC+, which is roughly average relative to his position.
• Matt Wieters, Cardinals: Dubbed “Mauer with Power” during his days as a super-prospect with the Orioles, Wieters has seldom lived up to the hype in the majors. Wieters was a legit starter for a while, granted, but the 33-year-old’s now amid his second straight season as a part-timer. The 33-year-old has been a usable backup at the plate, evidenced by his .219/.272/.439 line and 10 HRs through 169 PA, though his numbers are hardly great (or even good). Wieters’ defensive output – at least by the advanced metrics – has also continued to lag. He has, however, thrown out an eye-popping 44 percent of would-be base-stealers. But Wieters had to settle for a minors deal last winter after a similarly productive 2018, and he may have to do the same during the upcoming winter.
• Welington Castillo, White Sox: This season has been an utter disaster for Castillo, a normally decent hitter who currently owns a .203/.270/.368 line with minus-1.0 fWAR over 200 trips to the plate. Castillo’s technically not a surefire free agent, as the White Sox hold an $8MM club option for him for 2020, but they’ll decline it in favor of a $500K buyout. While Castillo, now 32, secured a two-year, $15MM guarantee last time he reached the open market, a major league contract may not be a lock this time around.
• Francisco Cervelli, Braves: As with Castillo, Cervelli’s a once-successful backstop who’s coming off a sizable contract (three years, $31MM). The Pirates released Cervelli from that deal last week, though he quickly landed on his feet on a majors pact with the Braves. Whether he’ll haul in another guaranteed pact in the offseason is up in the air. After all, the 33-year-old has a long history of concussion issues – a brain injury has shelved him for most of this season – and hasn’t been productive in 2019. Cervelli’s just a .220/.298/.314 hitter with a single HR in 132 trips this year.
• Stephen Vogt, Giants: The switch-hitting Vogt has somewhat quietly been one of the majors’ best comeback stories this season. A two-time All-Star with the Athletics from 2013-17, Vogt missed all of last season with the Brewers because of what looked like career-threatening shoulder problems. He didn’t give up, though, returning to the Bay Area in the offseason on a non-guaranteed deal with the Giants. They brought Vogt up May 1, and all he has done since then is slash .275/.329/.523 with eight homers and a personal-high .249 ISO in 222 PA. Between that and his highly regarded behind-the-scenes presence, the soon-to-be 35-year-old Vogt will draw offseason interest, though a major league deal could be difficult to land.
• Austin Romine, Yankees: Romine has been stuck in the shadow of Gary Sanchez in New York, but he has been a decent offensive backup twice in a row. The 30-year-old has overcome a glacial start this season to post a .268/.290/.408 line in 187 PA, though he has drawn walks at just a 3.2 percent clip. While the FRAA metric graded Romine favorably from 2017-18, he has been a minus in that category this season. Still, whether with the Yankees or another team, the 30-year-old figures to get a guaranteed contract in the winter.

Iffy Option Decisions:

• Yan Gomes, Nationals: Gomes, a former Indian, was in the throes of an abysmal season as recently as mid-July, but he’s starting to heat up. Will it be enough for the Nationals to pick up his option for $9MM and not buy him out for $1MM? We’ll see. The overall line of .219/.325/.342 with six homers in 274 PA obviously isn’t what the Nats had in mind when they acquired Gomes, nor is the mediocre defense he has given them. However, if Washington does turn down the option, it’s doubtful the 32-year-old Gomes will have much trouble finding work in the offseason.

Understandably, plenty of skepticism has accompanied Miley’s ability to prevent runs. Since 2018, only 20 qualified starters have registered a worse FIP than Miley’s 4.42, while he also falls toward the low end of the majors in SIERA (4.68; 19th from the bottom) and xFIP (4.44; 25th). One of the problems has been Miley’s K/BB ratio, which was especially poor last year after he struck out 5.58 hitters per nine and walked 3.01 across 80 2/3 innings as a Brewer. But Miley has improved significantly in that category through 141 2/3 frames as a member of the Astros, with whom he has struck out 7.43 and walked 3.05. While still unspectacular, those numbers are right in line with the former Diamondback, Red Sox and Mariner’s career totals (7.13 K/9, 3.12 BB/9).

Clearly, the 32-year-old Miley has never been anywhere near elite at racking up strikeouts or limiting walks, in part because of a fastball that clocks in at just about 91 mph. But Miley has typically induced a solid number of ground balls while limiting home runs, which has continued this year.

As a member of the Astros, Miley has forced grounders at a 52.4 percent clip and allowed homers on 15.1 percent of fly balls – both of which are well above average. He has also been tough on both lefties, whom he has held to a .255 weighted on-base average, and righties (.295). And good luck hasn’t been the driving force behind Miley’s ability to stymie hitters, as Statcast indicates the .289 wOBA he has given up is actually worse than his .282 expected wOBA. Miley’s xwOBA ranks in the majors’ 81st percentile, while his exit velocity against (70th), expected batting average (75th), hard-hit rate (81st) and expected slugging percentage against (84th) also sit toward the top of the majors.

The success Miley has enjoyed over the past couple years has come with a change in repertoire. When he was a member of the Orioles in 2017, batters had their way with Miley, who pitched to a bloated 5.61 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work. Miley’s career (or at least his time as a useful major leaguer) looked as if it was nearing an end then, but he has since revived it with a more cutter-heavy approach. He threw the pitch 14.3 percent of the time in 2017, per Statcast, but has used it at a 41-plus percent clip in both seasons since then. Miley has tossed it a personal-high 46.8 percent of the time this year, and hitters have recorded a modest .311 wOBA/.315 xwOBA against it. Miley’s other most common pitches – his changeup (19.6 percent; .198 wOBA/.191 xwOBA) and four-seamer (16.4 percent; .272/.258) – have confounded the opposition even more.

Despite the success Miley has enjoyed going back to 2018, the soft-tossing southpaw still isn’t a particularly exciting option. His earning power will always be somewhat limited as a result, but Miley should at least do better than the contract he raked in last offseason. A multiyear pact might be in the offing this winter for Miley, who will fall behind far more expensive hurlers such as teammate Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, perhaps among others, on the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.

The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.

This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.

Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).

It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

When Moustakas first prepared for free agency, entering his age-29 season, he seemed a good bet for a rather hefty contract. He had bounced back well from an injury-limited 2016 campaign; rejecting a qualifying offer was a foregone conclusion. Last winter, the value was down a bit, as were the expectations, but Moustakas still seemed to carry the profile of a player that could hold down regular playing time for a contender. He got a bigger contract, but only a single-season promise.

Fool me once, fool me twice … how about a third time? If the season ended today, I’d be on board once again with predicting multiple seasons at a strong salary. His prior forays may not have ended as hoped, but Moustakas has now twice disproved the doubters. He’s much the same player as ever … thus knocking down some of the biggest questions raised. And there are also some notable shifts in his profile that enhance his appeal.

Offensively, Moustakas hasn’t undergone any reinventions. Instead, he has more or less been the best possible version of himself in 2019. His 123 wRC+ matches his career-best mark from his breakout 2015 season. He’s still tough to strike out (16.8%) and is sporting a career-best 8.3% walk rate. Moose is stinging the ball (career-best 43.0% hard-hit rate) and spraying it to all fields more than ever, even while carrying a career-best .276 isolated power mark and setting a pace to challenge his personal-high of 38 home runs (he has 26 through 410 plate appearances).

Even if we bake in a bit of regression, we’re looking at a pretty strong baseline here. Moustakas has been about 15% better than the league-average hitter over nearly a five-year span. He has stayed in range of that performance level, establishing quite a consistent path. And he has even ironed out his platoon splits this year, performing a touch better against left-handed pitching than against righties. That shift actually accounts for most of Moustakas’s overall improvement at the plate and could be an interesting development in its own right, though it’s tough to assess whether it’s sustainable. The cherry on top offensively? Moustakas appears to be executing better on the bases, with Fangraphs’ BsR grading him as an approximately average runner this season after panning him in some prior campaigns.

And that’s all before we get to the most interesting aspect of Moustakas … his sudden and surprising defensive versatility. He has typically graded well at third base, so it isn’t as if the glove was ever considered a weakness. But there was concern that we were seeing the beginning of a downturn when Moustakas drew negative metrics in 2017, even though he bounced back to average last year. There never seemed to be much hope that he’d expand his repertoire.

As it turns out, the Brewers had other ideas … and they were pretty good ones. The club made the bold move of signing Moustakas with full intentions of deploying him at second base. As things have shaken out, he has split his time between second and his accustomed hot corner. And … Moustakas has thrived at both, grading as a net positive at his new spot and turning in revived marks from both UZR and DRS at third base.

Any other questions? How about durability and conditioning? The torn ACL that ended Moustakas’s ’16 campaign is fully healed. He has never had trouble staying on the field otherwise. While he’s still not speedy, Moustakas has restored his average sprint speed to pre-2016 levels and improved his home-to-first time in successive seasons (by measure of Statcast). Scouts throwing shade at his dad bod may well be humming a different tune this winter. By measure of the eye test, at least, Moustakas is carrying a relatively svelte physique at the moment.

Moustakas will always be more moose than antelope, but he’s also forcing us to reevaluate what such a creature can do on a ballfield. Right now, Moustakas is maximizing his tools offensively, smoothing some rough edges to various aspects of his game, and showing enhanced defensive value and roster versatility. There are some quality infielders on the upcoming market, most notably hot corner stalwarts Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but there should still be plenty of places for Moustakas to land. While he’ll obviously be entering free agency at a more advanced age than he did in his two prior experiences, the third trip might well end up being his most lucrative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

After an injury-limited 2018 season with the Jays and Indians, with whom he combined for a solid but unspectacular .246/.352/.449 line (117 wRC+) in 52 games and 219 trips to the plate, Donaldson headed to the NL via free agency this past winter. While he only inked a one-year contract with the Braves, they gave him $23MM in hopes he’d rekindle his glory years. However, two-plus months into the season, his production hasn’t matched his expensive salary.

The 33-year-old Donaldson turned in a 1-for-4 performance in a win over the Pirates on Thursday, contributing to a .236/.349/.419 line in 269 PA this season. While Donaldson has been a durable option for the Braves so far, his wRC+ only rates 5 percent above league average – his worst mark since his rookie year with the A’s in 2012. Having hit nine home runs, Donaldson’s on pace for 21, which would be his fewest in a full season. And Donaldson’s current ISO (.187) would also go down as his worst over a full campaign.

One of the problems, it seems, is that Donaldson’s not hitting enough fly balls. Donaldson’s pulling the ball more than ever, but that’s not particularly beneficial if he’s not elevating it. Although Donaldson was one of the game’s most notable spokesmen of its fly ball revolution during his heyday, his FB rate in 2019 (34 percent) is 8-plus percent lower than where it was in 2017 and checks in nearly 2 percent below league average. It’s unfortunate, too, because Donaldson’s 97.7 mph exit velocity on flies and line drives ranks 10th in the majors this year, according to Statcast. Donaldson’s 93 mph exit velo on all batted balls sits an even better ninth, though there’s not a ton of value in hitting hard grounders – especially when you possess below-average speed.

Beyond Donaldson’s batted-ball profile, his increasing strikeout rate presents more bad news. Donaldson has gone down on strikes 28.3 percent of the time this season, up from 18.4 percent during his half-decade stretch of greatness. To his credit, Donaldson’s somewhat offsetting that with a high walk rate (13.8 percent). However, he’s chasing more pitches than ever outside the strike zone, swinging and missing more than he has since his 34-PA debut in 2010, and making far less contact than he did in his star-level years.

Left-handed pitchers, whom the righty-swinging Donaldson has pulverized throughout his career, have been especially tough on him this year. He has slashed a horrid .167/.335/.229 against southpaws, who have stifled his power (ISO heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2010-18; 2019), in part because he’s no longer offering much resistance against offspeed pitches.

Adding everything up, Donaldson’s weighted on-base average and expected wOBA (.340/.354) indicate he’s still a quality producer at the plate. Beyond that, with three Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner this season, Donaldson’s still capable of handling his position. But Donaldson’s not the All-Star performer he was in Oakland and Toronto, and he hasn’t done a lot in Atlanta to help his stock as he gears up for a second straight trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Having signed a seven-year, $42MM contract with the Dodgers back in 2012, when he left Cuba for the majors, Puig already cashed in once earlier in his career. Although Puig was inconsistent in LA, he lived up to his pact as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he slashed .279/.353/.478 (129 wRC+) and totaled 108 home runs, 60 steals and 16.7 fWAR over 2,765 plate appearances from 2013-18.

The Reds were surely expecting Dodgers-esque production from Puig, but instead, he has managed a terrible .212/.256/.385 line with 11 HRs in 242 trips to the plate. His 63 wRC+ is eighth worst among 170 hitters who have amassed at least 200 PA.

Unfortunately for Puig and the Reds, his massive downturn in offensive production isn’t simply a byproduct of bad luck. Sure, Puig’s measly .230 batting average on balls in play is likely to climb, and his weighted on-base average (.270) sits far below his expected wOBA (.312). Nevertheless, Puig ranks around the middle or lower half of the league in xwOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. The right-hander’s also walking at a career-worst rate, striking out more than ever, chasing way more pitches outside the zone, not making nearly enough contact and, for the first time, getting stymied by same-handed pitchers. Relative to last season (heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2018, 2019), righties have been operating less in the middle of the plate against Puig, who hasn’t been able to come up with an answer.

When Puig has put the bat on the ball this season, the majority of his connections have ended up in the air. However, while many players have benefited from elevating the ball more, the opposite has been true for Puig. He’s racking up far more flies and far fewer grounders than he ever has, but that isn’t a great approach if you’re not hitting the ball with authority. Puig’s exit velocity on flies and line drives has fallen from 93.7 mph to 91.7 since last year, while his mean FB distance has dropped from 328 feet to 316.

It’s clear Puig’s offensive game is suddenly rife with red flags, though he has remained a capable defender and base runner in Cincinnati. Since his MLB career began, Puig has logged 44 Defensive Runs Saved with a 12.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, including four and 1.3 in those categories as a right fielder this season. Meanwhile, even though his sprint speed has decreased, Puig has swiped nine bases on 11 attempts.

Although it’s nice that Puig can flash the leather and run the bases, his ability to produce at the plate has been his calling card thus far. And if Puig doesn’t rebound in that aspect soon, it’s going to further drive his trade value into the ground as the July 31 deadline approaches. Worsening matters for Puig, it could make it difficult for him to secure anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal upon reaching the open market in the winter. With Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and perhaps Kole Calhoun also among corner outfielders set to hit free agency, Puig will have serious competition off what could go down as a nightmarish platform season for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

As it turned out, of course, Cleveland elected to roll the dice on Brantley, betting that he’d have his first healthy season since 2015 — when he was a high-end offensive performer. Significant shoulder and ankle problems conspired to limit Brantley to just 101 total games over the ensuing two seasons. Though he hit well in 2017, turning in a .299/.357/.444 with nine home runs in 375 plate appearances, that wasn’t near the top-level output he had turned in previously. All said, it was open to question just what Brantley would contribute in 2018

For the budget-conscious contenders, it wasn’t an easy call, particularly with a variety of potential buy-low targets available in free agency and other needs clamoring for attention. While the overall roster performance hasn’t been quite to expectations in 2018, though, the decision to hang onto Brantley has paid off handsomely.

Through 245 plate appearances on the year, Brantley carries a .316/.359/.529 slash with 11 home runs. He has returned to striking out in less than ten percent of his plate appearances. And while he isn’t walking as much as he did in 2015, with a slightly below-average 6.1% rate, Brantley is producing more power (.213 isolated slugging) than he ever has in a full season. Better still, Statcast thinks there’s more in the tank, as it credits him with a .410 xwOBA that significantly exceeds the .374 wOBA mark that has resulted.

Still, there are some questions facing Brantley away from the plate. Typically a plus runner, he has rated as a negative thus far in 2018 under Fangraphs’ BsR measure. More worrisome, perhaps, is the slippage in his defensive metrics. Most of his career has been spent in range of average in left field, but Brantley has been panned by both DRS (-8) and UZR (-5.6) in 2018.

In regard to the baserunning and glovework, a full-season sample or finer analysis could change the picture. Still, though, those aren’t the most promising developments for a player who is already 31 years of age and has fought through major health concerns of late. Brantley has also typically carried fairly significant platoon splits over his career, though he has generally produced palatable numbers against southpaws.

If Brantley can maintain his current offensive trajectory, and perhaps exhibit reasonable form in the other areas of play as well, then he’ll have quite an interesting free-agent case. His premium plate discipline and contact skills ought to play well in the market — former teammate Carlos Santana got $20MM annually last winter despite being limited to first base defensively — though age will certainly come into play.

Frankly, there are no shortage of interest market markers to consider here. On the lower end, the agreement that Denard Span inked with the Giants covered his age-32 through age-34 campaigns. Like Brantley, he was coming off of some injury-marred campaigns with questions about how he’d bounce back. Melky Cabrera was more youthful but not as accomplished as Brantley when he signed his three-year, $42MM pact with the White Sox. The same is true of Jay Bruce, who was born months apart from Brantley but reached the market one year sooner, securing $39MM over three seasons.

There’s certainly a ready argument that Brantley ought to out-perform those contracts, particularly if teams still view him as a plausible corner outfielder for most or all of the contractual term. Players of a similarly advanced age have secured five-year guarantees, with recent examples including Lorenzo Cain ($80MM), Dexter Fowler ($82.5MM), and Ian Desmond ($70MM). In each of those cases, though, the length of the deal was perhaps less concerning since the players involved were considered capable of playing center field (as well as the infield, in Desmond’s case), even if Brantley still carries a better offensive profile.

Barring an unreal run to finish the year, Brantley will likely struggle to command a fifth year, particularly as we’ve generally seen a movement toward shorter contracts in free agency. Even with the injury history, though, might he be a strong candidate for a fourth year? Curtis Granderson got to four years, at a $15MM rate, at a more advanced age. He was coming off of an injury-shortened season, though he was also an established 40-homer bat at a time when that meant more than it does today. Alex Gordon landed $72MM on a four-year term, but didn’t face the kinds of long-term health questions that Brantley does. Nick Swisher was 32 years old when he signed for four years and $56MM after a run as a steadier, but lower-ceiling hitter than Brantley. Of course, those four-year contracts are also somewhat out of date. Josh Reddick recently secured four years and $52MM. But he was entering his age-30 campaign.

Taken together, that’s quite a broad range. Given his return to form thus far, one could reasonably craft an argument that Brantley ought to rate in the Granderson-Gordon range as a high-quality, veteran corner bat. Then again, teams will need to examine and weigh his long-term medical outlook quite closely, as Brantley has dealt with quite a bit more than the sort of acute injuries that take place in the course of playing baseball. In that view, perhaps the three-year arrangements provide a better model, though even in that event Brantley is on track to staking a claim to a significant AAV.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

There are undoubtedly readers out there who literally don’t know who Escobar is. He’s long been a quality utility piece for the Twins, but he’s taken his offensive game to new heights over the past two seasons. Now, four months away from free agency, he looks potentially poised for a payday that would’ve sounded unthinkable for him entering the 2017 season.

Escobar, 29, is off to a ridiculous .286/.340/.562 start to the 2018 season (143 OPS+, 139 wRC+). The switch-hitter already belted a dozen home runs and racked up an incredible 24 doubles through his first 238 trips to the plate. It’s an excellent followup to last year’s career-high 21 homers, and he’s already just nine long balls and 11 doubles shy of his career-bests with about 60 percent of the season still to play.

While it’s not always obvious to see the areas from which a player’s offensive breakout stems, Escobar has made some very noticeable changes to his approach at the plate. He looks to be one of the many success stories from 2017’s “fly-ball revolution,” having increased his launch angle from 15 degrees in 2016 to 17.5 degrees in 2017 to 20.8 degrees in 2018. Back in 2016, Escobar was putting the ball on the ground nearly 40 percent of the time he made contact. But his fly-ball rate jumped from 37.4 percent in 2016 to 45.3 percent last season. This year, it’s sitting at a career-high 47.9 percent. His average exit velocity of 87.6 mph isn’t elite, but it’s steadily risen by about 1 mph in each of the past two seasons.

That seems like a deliberate focus on putting the ball in the air and hitting for more power, and it’s somewhat predictably come with some other, more negative changes. Escobar has traded some contact for his newfound power, striking out at a career-worst 22.7 percent so far in 2018. He’s chasing a whopping 40.4 percent out-of-zone pitches, and his swinging-strike rate is a career-worst 12.7 percent as well. That said, his strikeout rate is far from egregious, and he’s also sporting career-bests in hard-contact rate, line-drive rate and barreled-ball rate. His .327 average on balls in play is a bit north of his career .299 mark, but that can be somewhat explained by his increase in barreled balls and quality contact. In short, he looks like a legitimately improved hitter.

Defensively, Escobar is more of a mixed bag. He has extensive experience at both positions on the left side of the infield in addition to 348 innings at second base and 275 innings in the outfield (eight in center and 267 in left field). That’s desirable versatility, but he’s not exactly a standout defender anywhere. Third base has been his best position in the Majors, and by measure of both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, he’s a serviceable defender at the hot corner. DRS pegs him at -5 runs 1735 innings, while UZR/150 has him at -0.4. His ratings at shortstop, particularly in 2018, are far less appealing (-8 DRS in 168 innings, -2.1 UZR), but he’d graded out passably (even favorably, per UZR) at the position in prior seasons.

At the very least, a team would likely feel comfortable installing Escobar at shortstop once or twice per week, knowing he could be re-positioned elsewhere in a late defensive switch by a superior defender. And it stands to reason that most clubs would feel comfortable with his glove at third base.

The question for Escobar in free agency, of course, will be one of how exactly he’ll be valued by other clubs. Escobar isn’t going to sustain a .276 isolated power mark (that is, slugging percentage minus batting average). By his own admission, many of his doubles are of the “hustle” variety (such as this one), and his 15.2 percent homer-to-flyball ratio is well above his career norm. Still, at least much of the gains he’s made in the power department seem legitimate. He’s also sporting a modest increase in walk rate (career-high 7.6 percent) to go along with his improved contact and defensive versatility. Some teams figure to value him in as a high-end utility player, while others yet may feel he’s capable of shouldering an everyday workload.

Looking for recent comparables, there aren’t many examples of bat-first utility players that stack up nicely with Escobar’s case. Ben Zobrist’s four-year, $56MM contract was signed when Zobrist had a considerably lengthier track record and seems too ambitious a comparison for Escobar. On the other hand, former teammate Eduardo Nunez’s modest deal to return to the Red Sox this year feels like it can be similarly dismissed, given Nunez’s late knee injury and lack of power. Luis Valbuena’s two-year, $15MM contract feels too low, given Escobar’s ability to play some shortstop, his switch-hitting capability and his superior offensive output. Jed Lowrie’s three-year, $23MM deal with the A’s may even be light. That contract began when Lowrie was 32 years of age and came on the heels of a season in which he played in just 69 games. Escobar will turn 30 next January.

Perhaps, then, Escobar will forge his own path, to an extent. He’s experiencing an offensive breakout similar to the one that Zack Cozart exhibited in his two years leading up to a three-year, $38MM deal from the Angels, though Cozart was considered a premium defensive shortstop who could provide significant defensive value at third base as well. Then again, he hadn’t been as healthy as Escobar and was two years older. That could serve as something of a ceiling for Escobar, and perhaps a four-year deal at a lower annual rate (something in the vein of Omar Infante’s admittedly dated four-year, $30.25MM deal with Kansas City) shouldn’t be entirely ruled out, given Escobar’s relative youth.

All of this, of course, is predicated on Escobar sustaining a pace that at least approximates his current output. That’s far from a given, especially considering the fact that Polanco’s eventual return will cut into his playing time to some degree. But heading into the 2018 season, the general thought was that if there was one switch-hitting utility player poised for a significant payday, it’d be Houston’s Marwin Gonzalez. With Gonzalez struggling and Escobar thriving, that reality looks to have shifted. There are under-the-radar free agents who emerge from relative anonymity every season, and Escobar is making his case to become the latest such example with a strong start to the year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Now, more than a third of the way through the 2018 season, Grandal again seems like one of the game’s best backstops. He’s commanding the lion’s share of the time behind the plate, helping the club weather some devastating injuries and setting himself up for an interesting trip onto the open market. We’ll use this post to take a closer look at his free agent stock.

Grandal is among the highest-rated catchers this season by measure of fWAR, with 1.3 wins tallied to this point. He’s slashing a productive .246/.346/.451 through 205 plate appearances, with nine home runs and an appealing combination of a 12.2% walk rate and 22.0% strikeout rate. Statcast likes his batted-ball profile, crediting him with a .362 xwOBA that exceeds the .343 wOBA he has produced.

If anything, though, that WAR metric likely understates Grandal’s value, because it doesn’t account for his framing prowess. Baseball Prospectus’s measure, WARP, credits Grandal with 2.0 wins to date this year. But even that may undersell the backstop. He has drawn only slightly above-average framing marks from BPro this year, while StatCorner continues to grade Grandal as the best in the business. That was a shared assessment of both outlets over the past several years. And by measure of WORP, Grandal has contributed a whopping 17.2 wins over his first three years in L.A.

Teams will make their own fine-tuned assessments of defensive value, weighing considerations — pitch calling, pitcher management, etc. — that are all but impossible to assess from the outside. But everything in the data suggests that Grandal is a top-quality catcher. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a switch-hitter who has historically been best against right-handed pitching but still reaches base at a quality clip against southpaws. Grandal is still 29 years of age, too, and has been plenty durable to this point in his career.

So, how might that play in free agency? The catching market is something of its own beast, due in no small part to the fact that many of the best receivers have reached extensions before reaching free agency. Players such as Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Salvador Perez, Jonathan Lucroy, Francisco Cervelli, Tucker Barnhart, Devin Mesoraco, and Yan Gomes have all signed away their prime years recently (or in the not-so-distant past), without testing the open market.

When premium backstops do hit free agency, they certainly can be paid. Brian McCann ($85MM) and Russell Martin ($82MM) have demonstrated that recently with high-dollar, five-year deals. Of course, the biggest contracts have still come between backstops and their existing teams. Joe Mauer inked his $184MM deal with the Twins when he was still catching, of course. And Mike Piazza worked out his massive deal with the Mets before technically becoming a free agent.

Clearly, Grandal isn’t in the rarefied air of Mauer, Piazza, and Posey. But is there an argument to be made that he ought to be able to approach McCann and Martin levels of pay over a five-year term? Grandal is on par with McCann in terms of age (both entering age-30 seasons as free agents) and a fair bit younger than was Martin. And though Grandal has not reached the heights offensively that McCann did at times as a young player, there’s a case to be made that his bat is roughly as appealing at equivalent stages. In the three years prior to his deal with the Yanks, McCann compiled a composite 113 OPS+, while Grandal presently sits at 111 since joining the Dodgers. Martin turned in a 105 OPS+ in the three seasons immediately preceding his trip onto the open market.

Whether Grandal will have a case for anything approaching that level of pay isn’t yet clear, but will surely depend upon still-unknown factors including how he performs the rest of the way and precisely how the demand side shapes up. It’s worth remembering that the Martin contract came in a fair bit higher than expected, when the Jays decided to add another guaranteed season. We’re also missing potentially relevant intermediate market markers, since several of the more anticipated possible recent free-agent cases have not been tested. Cervelli re-upped with the Bucs, Lucroy and Matt Wieters struggled in platform years, and Wilson Ramos was injured just before reaching free agency. At a minimum, though, Grandal seems clearly to be trending towards a contract that includes at least four guaranteed seasons and an annual salary in the $12MM to $16MM range. Of course, that also suggests he’s quite likely to receive a qualifying offer, which could dent his market somewhat.

So long as he can sustain something like his current output for the remainder of the season — which certainly seems reasonable given his track record — Grandal could represent an interesting test case for the market’s current valuation of catchers. It’ll be particularly interesting to see how things turn out given the presence of other useful catchers (including Ramos and the increasingly interesting Tyler Flowers) on the 2018-19 market and the fact that there’s now a widespread appreciation of the value of framing. With plenty of teams likely in need of new backstops, the catching market ought to serve as a quality undercard to the premium class of free agents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dozier’s recent excellence has come under the team-friendly extension he signed as a less established player heading into the 2015 season. That contract – a four-year, $20MM pact – has been one of the biggest bargains in baseball lately, but unfortunately for the Twins, it’s on the cusp of expiring. Dozier is now two-plus months into the last year of his deal, and indications are that he’ll test the open market after the season. The 31-year-old made it clear over the winter that he was interested in an extension – “I’ve said I wanted to stay here since forever, but I’ve really vocalized it the last couple years,” he declared – but the Twins didn’t reciprocate and talks on a new deal died.

Because he hasn’t been able to secure another long-term accord from the Twins, Dozier is now trying to prove to them and other teams that he’ll be worth a significant investment in the coming months. But unfortunately for Dozier, his platform year hasn’t begun in ideal fashion. With a .241/.313/.420 batting line in 249 PAs, Dozier’s offensive production has been 3 percent below average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was an above-average hitter in each of the previous four seasons, including when he recorded his two highest wRC+ figures – 131 and 125 – in 2016 and ’17.

Encouragingly, Dozier’s walking at a 9.2 percent clip (in line with a career 9.4 mean) and striking out less than he did in previous years. He has fanned 18.1 percent of the time, which is both better than the ever-increasing league rate (22.4 percent) and his career mark (19.4). Dozier’s also chasing less than ever, having registered a 22.6 percent out-of-zone swing rate that easily outdoes his lifetime figure (27.8).

Dozier’s offensive game clearly isn’t devoid of positive signs, then, though there has been cause for alarm when he has put the bat on the ball. He has only hit eight homers thus far, to go with an ISO (.179) that has declined substantially from the .238 mark he combined for from 2015-17. Further, Dozier’s line drive percentage is at a personal-worst 14.4 – compared to 19.9 during his career – and after averaging a 94.4 mph exit velocity on liners last season, Dozier’s at 91.4 this year. Thanks in part to that, not to mention an increase in grounders, Dozier’s percentage of balls hit at least 95 mph has fallen from 34.5 percent in 2017 to 28.1 this season. Dozier currently ranks toward the bottom of the majors in those Statcast metrics (via Baseball Savant), making it no surprise that he has only registered a .303 xwOBA and a .267 batting average on balls in play to this point. While Dozier’s BABIP is close to his career total (.276), it’s a far cry from the personal high (.300) he put up in that department last year.

When Dozier’s contact has eluded defenders this year, he hasn’t been nearly the threat on the base paths that he was in previous seasons. Dozier collected anywhere from 12 to 21 steals in each year from 2013-17, and he entered the campaign with a career success rate near 76 percent. But Dozier has only converted on two of four attempts in 2018, perhaps in part because he’s not as fleet of foot as he had been. Dozier’s average sprint speed is 26.8 feet per second, per Statcast, placing him just below the league mean (27) and down from the slightly above-average marks he managed in each of the three prior seasons.

Dozier’s production at the plate and on the bases does warrant some concern, but his defensive numbers look normal so far. Dozier had essentially been a scratch defender from 2012-17, according to both Defensive Runs Saved (three) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-0.3), and that has also been the case in 2018 (two DRS, minus-1.5 UZR). And Dozier’s impressive durability has once again been on display, as he hasn’t missed any of the Twins’ 54 games after amassing between 147 and 157 appearances in each of the previous five seasons.

Dozier’s outstanding track record of availability will undoubtedly appeal to teams as he seeks another payday in the coming months, though he won’t max out his earning potential at his current offensive pace. There’s time for Dozier to turn it around at the plate, of course, and it’s especially important for him to do so given the competition he could face on the market. As things stand, there will be no shortage of veteran second basemen available in free agency, including DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera. Thanks to that fact – not to mention Dozier’s age, the unkind way free agency has been trending for 30-somethings and the potential of a qualifying offer hanging over his head – his first trip to the market may come at an inopportune time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Perhaps it was somewhat overlooked, though, that another top-shelf, up-the-middle outfield talent was (and still is) a part of this free-agent gold mine. Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock, who is over a year younger than Blackmon, is also slated to test the open market after the 2018 campaign. And his early showing this season suggests he could step right into Blackmon’s shoes as the featured center fielder.

It’s important to emphasize that Pollock is not just some flash in the pan. He has been a MLB powerhouse before. Back in 2015, the then-27-year-old turned in a stunning campaign for the D-Backs, slashing .315/.367/.498 while driving twenty home runs, swiping 39 bags, and providing top-end glovework in center.

That output, which followed an excellent but injury-shortened 2014 effort, was valued in the range of 7 WAR. A career year? Perhaps. But nothing stood out as particularly unsustainable; Pollock carried a healthy but hardly otherworldly .338 batting average on balls in play. Ultimately, that kind of output over a full season just isn’t possible without supreme talent.

Pollock, really, was Blackmon before the bearded wonder came into his own as a power-speed force. Then came a terrible elbow injury that cost Pollock almost all of the 2016 season. He returned with a quality showing in 2017 — a league-average (park-adjusted) .266/.330/.471 slash with 14 home runs and twenty steals — but produced more as a high-quality regular than a superstar and missed nearly a third of the season with a groin injury.

At the outset of the current season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes graded Pollock the ninth-best free agent on the upcoming market. Health, he rightly emphasized, would be a major factor in Pollock’s market. Dierkes certainly did not short Pollock’s talent in suggesting he could conceivably play his way into a deal in the range of the five-year, $80MM deal signed by Lorenzo Cain. Perhaps, though, there’s greater potential earning upside even than that for a player who has already established a lofty ceiling and who is still relatively youthful.

Thus far in 2018, after all, Pollock has had that 2015 look about him. He has already blasted ten long balls and stolen seven bags. He’s sporting an excellent .292/.356/.689 slash despite only carrying a .296 BABIP. Statcast numbers (.422 wOBA vs. .405 xwOBA) largely support his output. And the early returns from defensive metrics suggest that Pollock is still a well-above-average fielder in center — an area he shines in relation to Blackmon and perhaps even Cain, whose grades have trended more toward average in recent years.

No matter how things turn out, Pollock’s somewhat worrying history of elbow surgeries will likely weigh on his market. And the holes in his track record won’t be closed up retrospectively. Still, if Pollock can sustain a substantially above-average offensive performance over the duration of the 2018 campaign — and, of course, remain healthy along he way — he could have a free-agent case that is in many ways as compelling as the one Blackmon decided to forego.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.