It didn’t take long for an injury to intervene. Cobb is battling inflammation in his right hip, which is likely to lead to a season-opening injured list stint. It’s an alarming start to his Detroit tenure, as the veteran righty missed a good portion of last year rehabbing a 2023 labrum repair in his opposite hip.

What had been a camp battle for one spot expands to a competition for two vacancies. Detroit has a handful of recognizable names — including a few one-time top prospects who are still looking to establish themselves — in the mix for those jobs behind the Skubal/Flaherty/Olson top three.

Jackson Jobe

Aside from Roki Sasaki, the 22-year-old Jobe may currently be the sport’s most talented pitching prospect. Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and MLB Pipeline each placed him as their #2 pitching prospect. Keith Law of The Athletic ranks Jobe as the #1 pitching prospect — Law excluded Sasaki from his ranking based on the latter’s NPB experience — while Eric Longehagen of FanGraphs had Jobe behind Sasaki and Andrew Painter.

Evaluators agree that Jobe has top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He’s the most exciting player in this group, but he’s far from a lock to break camp. The 6’2″ righty’s MLB experience consists of four relief appearances — two apiece in the regular season and playoffs — last fall. He has started all of two Triple-A games.

Jobe spent most of last season at Double-A Erie, where he turned in a 2.36 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate but walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters. He missed two months because of a hamstring strain. Last year’s 91 2/3 innings nevertheless represented the most he’s thrown in a professional season. Even if he breaks camp, he’s unlikely to make 30+ starts and top 150 innings. The Tigers surely don’t want to burn him out early in the year. Jobe still has a full slate of options and could begin the year with Triple-A Toledo.

Casey Mize

The first overall pick in 2018, Mize is now a few seasons removed from being one of the game’s top pitching prospects. The 27-year-old’s body of work has been decent but underwhelming relative to expectations. Mize pitched to a 3.71 ERA over 30 starts in 2021, his first full season. Tommy John surgery essentially cost him the next two years. The Auburn product returned to action with a 4.49 ERA across 102 1/3 frames last year. He showed plus control and got a lot of ground-balls but managed only a 17.3% strikeout rate.

Mize hasn’t missed many bats and gave up a lot of hard contact last season. He’s still sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball, but none of his top four offerings (four-seam, slider, splitter, sinker) got especially strong results last year. It looks like he’s trending towards a fifth/sixth starter role. Mize still has a full slate of options, but he’s 61 days away from reaching five years of service time. At that point, he cannot be sent to the minors without his approval. He’s making $2.34MM and under arbitration control for another year beyond this one.

Kenta Maeda

The Tigers inked Maeda to a two-year, $24MM free agent deal last winter. It looked like a good value at the time, but the veteran righty had a terrible first season in the Motor City. Maeda allowed more than six earned runs per nine across 112 1/3 innings. He struck out just 19.8% of batters faced, a huge drop from the 27.3% mark he’d posted during his final season with the Twins. His home run rate climbed for the fourth consecutive season.

Maeda lost his rotation spot last July. He worked in long relief until the final weekend of the season, when he picked up a spot start after Detroit had punched its postseason ticket. Detroit left him off their playoff rosters. While Maeda was essentially a non-factor by season’s end, president of baseball operations Scott Harris said early in the offseason that the Tigers would give him another chance to earn a rotation spot out of camp. The Tigers kept him on the roster all offseason, suggesting they’re still holding out some hope that they’ll get something positive from what’ll be a $10MM investment this year. Maeda can’t be sent to the minors, so if he doesn’t win a rotation spot, he’ll either head back to long relief or be a release candidate.

Brant Hurter

A seventh-round pick in 2021, Hurter made his MLB debut last August. The 6’6″ lefty came out of the bullpen for all but one of his 10 appearances. He averaged 4.5 innings per appearance, though, so he was more or less operating as a bulk arm who generally followed an opener. Hurter had a strong debut, pitching to a 2.58 earned run average through 45 1/3 frames. He struck out 21.7% of batters faced against a 3.4% walk rate while getting grounders at an excellent 53.1% clip.

Hurter leans most heavily on a sinker that sits in the 92 MPH range. That pitch gets a lot of grounders but rarely misses bats. He showed more swing-and-miss potential with a low-80s breaking ball. Hurter recorded a lot of strikeouts up through Double-A. Hitters started putting the ball in play much more frequently at the top minor league level. There’s volatility with that approach, which is demonstrated by the 5.80 ERA which Hurter posted across 19 Triple-A appearances (18 starts). The Tigers could have some questions about how his arsenal would play against right-handed hitters, in particular, if he works as a traditional starter.

Keider Montero

Detroit added Montero to their 40-man roster during the 2023-24 offseason. They called him up for the first time late last May. The 24-year-old righty took the ball 19 times (including 16 starts) and worked 98 1/3 innings of 4.76 ERA ball as a rookie. The underlying marks weren’t great. His 18.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% swinging strike percentage were each a few points below average. He surrendered more than 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Montero’s 7.5% walk rate was fine and his fastball sat in the 94-95 MPH range, but his rookie year was mostly a struggle.

Montero has missed more bats in his minor league career, albeit with shakier control than he showed in his MLB action. He struck out 24.1% of opponents across 13 Triple-A starts. A walk rate north of 13% contributed to an unimpressive 5.03 ERA over 48 1/3 frames. Montero still has two option years and can bounce between Detroit and Toledo. While he has been a starter throughout his professional career, perhaps there’d be some intrigue in seeing how his stuff plays in a relief role.

Matt Manning

Manning, 27, is another former top 10 pick and top prospect in this mix. The 6’6″ righty has made 50 career starts over the past four seasons. He carries a 4.43 ERA across 254 innings. As with Mize, he has shown decent control but struggled to miss bats (16.4% strikeout rate). Manning fell fairly far down the depth chart last season. He only made five major league appearances while taking the ball 15 times for Toledo. He posted a 4.28 ERA while striking out a quarter of batters faced over 69 1/3 minor league innings. He battled a lat injury in the second half and was sidelined from around the All-Star Break until the middle of September.

This will be Manning’s final option year if he spends at least 20 days in the minors. He’s on track to qualify for arbitration next winter. It’s approaching make-or-break territory if he’s going to carve out a significant role in Detroit.

Ty Madden

Madden reached the majors for the first time last August. The Texas product had a limited role as a rookie. He pitched to a 4.30 earned run average with a 16.8% strikeout rate across 23 innings. Madden missed a lot more bats in the minors, where he punched out 28.3% of opposing hitters over 22 starts. That was about the only positive from his minor league numbers, though. Madden allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine. He gave up way too many home runs and walked nearly 10% of batters faced.

Baseball America ranked Madden as the #18 prospect in the Detroit system this winter. The outlet writes that his four-pitch mix and command are fringy. The stuff has been good enough to get whiffs against minor league hitters, but he’s probably ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season.

4:00pm: The Tigers announced that they have signed left-hander Andrew Chafin to a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to spring training. The southpaw is a client of Meister Sports Management.

Chafin, 35 in June, has spent over a decade as an effective lefty reliever. That includes a couple of previous stints with Detroit. He was with the Tigers for the entire 2022 season, posting a 2.83 earned run average. Last year, he had a 3.16 ERA in 37 innings for the Tigers before being traded to the Rangers at the deadline. His results with Texas weren’t quite as strong, so he finished the year with a 3.51 ERA overall.

His profile has changed over his career, as he was previously a strong ground ball guy but has moved more towards strikeouts in more recent seasons. From 2014 to 2022, Chafin tossed 400 2/3 major league innings with a 3.23 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. His pitch mix consisted of 26.6% fastballs, 39.6% sinkers, 32.8% sliders and 1% changeups.

Over the past two seasons, he has bumped the slider usage to 40.6%, mostly at the expense of his fastball, which has been used just 18.3% of the time. That’s led to a 4.10 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 12.6% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate.

Though Chafin has been solid and consistent on the whole, he hasn’t been viewed kindly by the open market. In the past seven full seasons, he has logged at least 49 innings, only once posting an ERA higher than 3.76.

He first became a free agent after a rough showing in the shortened 2020 season, spending most of it on the injured list and tossing just 9 2/3 innings. That led to a one-year, $2.8MM deal with the Cubs for 2021. Chafin posted a 1.83 ERA that year and secured a two-year, $13MM deal with Detroit going into 2022, with the second year being a player option.

After posting a 2.83 ERA in 2022, he declined his $6.5MM player option to take another shot at free agency. That didn’t lead to much extra earning power, as he landed a one-year, $6.3MM deal with the Diamondbacks, plus $1MM of incentives. Last winter, another one-year deal was his result, getting a $4.8MM guarantee from the Tigers. This time around, despite a solid campaign, he’s had to settle for a minor league pact.

The Tigers have Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter and Sean Guenther as lefty relievers on the roster. Holton should have a big league job locked down but Guenther has just 41 1/3 innings in the majors with a 5.01 ERA. Hurter just made his MLB debut last year and is also in the rotation mix, so the club might prefer to have him as a frequently-optioned multi-inning guy/depth starter.

If Chafin looks like his old self in camp, he could perhaps get a job as the second lefty in the bullpen alongside Holton. If not, he’ll have chances to look elsewhere. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, Article XX(b) free agents get guaranteed opt-out chances on minor league deals if they are signed more than ten days prior to Opening Day. An Article XX(b) free agent is one with six years of service who finished the previous season on a 40-man roster or 60-day injured list. Those opt-out chances are five days prior to Opening Day, May 1st and June 1st.

Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

Baddoo, 26, came into camp as a non-roster depth outfielder. The Tigers passed him through waivers unclaimed in December, so he no longer had a spot on the 40-man roster. The fact that he lost his roster spot and no other club claimed him is a testament to his recent struggles. He had a tremendous 2021 season but wasn’t able to keep his performance going in the subsequent three seasons.

Going into 2021, the Tigers plucked Baddoo from the Twins in the 2020 Rule 5 draft, and he hit the ground running that year. He got into 124 games for the Tigers, hitting 13 home runs and slashing .259/.330/.436 for a 108 wRC+. He also stole 18 bases and played all three outfield positions.

Since that was just his age-22 season, it seemed like the Tigers had snagged a nice long-term piece for their outfield. However, Baddoo has hit just .203/.292/.328 for a 76 wRC+ over the past three seasons. He has been surpassed on the depth chart by other outfielders and been bumped down into a depth role. He spent most of 2024 on optional assignment, getting into 82 Triple-A games and hitting .238/.340/.418 at that level for a 98 wRC+. As mentioned, he was bumped off the 40-man roster a couple of months ago.

Going into the season, the Tigers project to have Riley Greene and Parker Meadows in two outfield spots. Matt Vierling will likely be in another, though it’s possible he ends up at third base if prospect Jace Jung struggles. Kerry Carpenter will undoubtedly see some time in the outfield as well, though he projects as a frequent designated hitter, at least against right-handed pitching.

Justyn-Henry Malloy and Wenceel Pérez could be in the mix but also have minor league options remaining, meaning they could be ticketed for regular playing time in Triple-A. Andy Ibáñez and Zach McKinstry will likely be in utility roles at the major league level.

Players like Jahmai Jones, Bligh Madris and Baddoo gave the Tigers some extra depth in the non-roster department, but Baddoo will be subtracted from that group for a while. He will likely be shut down until late March/early April. At that point, he will effectively have to restart spring training to get into game shape, meaning he may not be a realistic option for the Tigers until May.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

• The Red Sox signing Alex Bregman (1:15)
• The Tigers just missing on Bregman (9:35)
• The Cardinals seemingly holding onto Nolan Arenado (12:15)
• The Padres signing Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart (17:40)
• The Blue Jays not getting an extension done with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (20:50)
• The Diamondbacks extending Geraldo Perdomo (31:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

• The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
• Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

• Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado – listen here
• Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres – listen here
• Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

None of that addresses the shortstop situation, however, so the club will seemingly head into camp with a positional battle there. That’s a risky but defensive strategy, as the winter market didn’t feature many better alternatives. On the trade market, Bo Bichette was in a few rumors but never seemed to be truly available.

In free agency, Willy Adames was the only healthy everyday shortstop. He signed a seven-year, $182MM deal with the Giants. The Tigers certainly could have matched that, given their fairly clean future payroll ledger, but it never seemed likely that they would. They already have a lot of money dedicated to the position, as the one big deal still on the books is for a shortstop, and they also have some potential long-term solutions just a bit over the horizon.

Let’s take a look at the current picture, the short term and the long term, as spring training is ramping up.

The Expensive Bounceback Candidate

Javier Báez

The struggles of Báez in Detroit are no big secret at this point. The Tigers signed him to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022. He had just finished a six-year stretch in which he hit .271/.312/.490 for a 107 wRC+ with strong defensive and baserunning grades, allowing him to produce 21.9 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.

In his first year as a Tiger, he hit .238/.278/.393 for a wRC+ of 89, a disappointing but not disastrous performance. He fell even further in 2023, producing a .222/.267/.325 line and 63 wRC+. Another drop came last year, with Báez coming up with a dismal line of .184/.221/.294 and a 48 wRC+. His defensive metrics have also fallen in that time.

The most favorable view of Báez right now is that his recent nosedive has been health related. He only got into 80 games last year, missing time due to lumbar spine and hip inflammation. He underwent season-ending surgery in August. It didn’t come out of nowhere. Back in February of last year, Báez told Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that he dealt with lower back discomfort throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

That probably sounds like a convenient excuse but it could perhaps explain why his performance has dropped so precipitously. If the surgery has addressed his issues and he can get back to full strength in 2025, that could allow him to reverse his recent trends. Even if he doesn’t fully return to All-Star form, there would be value in simply being less bad.

If the struggles continue, the Tigers could face a tough choice. Teams are generally reluctant to give up on players when there’s still so much of the deal remaining. It’s pretty rare for a guy on an eight- or nine-figure deal to be released with more than two years left on the deal. Báez still has three years left on his pact but that will gradually move closer to two as the summer rolls along. Even if he doesn’t get released, there’s a chance he gets pushed into being an expensive utility/bench player.

The Possible Short-Term Alternative

Trey Sweeney

Sweeney, 25 in April, served as a passable fill-in while Báez was recovering from surgery last year. He made his major league debut by getting into 36 games down the stretch as the Tigers were engineering their amazing comeback. Sweeney slashed .218/.269/.373 for a wRC+ of 81. His defense was graded as above average, in a small sample of 294 innings.

That was far better than anything Báez has done recently, but was also significantly less than Báez at his peak. Whether Sweeney is the best option likely depends on which version of Báez is going to show up in 2025.

Sweeney’s not really considered a top prospect. Baseball America currently ranks him eighth in the system. He’s has some good numbers in the minors but there are some concerns about the strikeouts. He slashed .267/.345/.450 in Triple-A last year but was punched out in 26.7% of his plate appearances. In his brief big league time, he had a similar 26.9% strikeout rate.

The ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other players mentioned here, but Sweeney has been to the big leagues and handled himself well enough. If things go south with Báez again, the Tigers will have a fallback. But since he has options, he might be playing every day in Triple-A to start the season while Báez tries to get back on track.

The Immediate Depth

Zach McKinstry/Ryan Kreidler

McKinstry, 30 in April, isn’t a huge bat but is a fine bench/utility guy. He has 1,207 major league plate appearances to this point in his career with a .220/.285/.357 line and 79 wRC+. But he has also stolen 40 bases, including 16 in each of the past two years. He got those 16 bags last year without getting caught. He has also lined up at all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base, with pretty solid marks all over. Despite the tepid bat, FanGraphs has credited him with 3.0 wins above replacement in 323 games over the past three seasons. He’s out of options and will be on the big league bench.

Kreidler, 27, is still looking to get to that level. He has a line of .147/.212/.193 in his three-year big league career, though in just 167 plate appearances. But his shortstop defense has been considered above average, in addition to playing second base, third base and a bit of outfield. He had a rough showing offensively in the minors last year but has been better in the past. He still has an option and could be ticketed for Triple-A to start the year.

The Possible Shortstops Of The Future

Kevin McGonigle/Bryce Rainer

On Baseball America’s Top 100 list, there are two Detroit shortstop prospects. McGonigle has the #23 spot with Rainer at #60. The brief take on the situation is that McGonigle is the better pure hitter, and closer to the majors, but there’s more of a risk that he’ll need to move off shortstop in the future.

Just 20 years old right now, McGonigle was taken 37th overall in 2023 with a competitive balance pick. Since that draft selection, he has played in 95 minor league games, stepping to the plate 421 times. A massive 15.2% of those plate appearances have resulted in a walk, compared to a strikeout rate of just 9%. There were only six home runs in there but his .310/.412/.443 combined line nonetheless translates to a 143 wRC+. He finished last year at High-A, so getting to Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2025 seem like realistic outcomes.

Rainer is only 19, having just been drafted a few months ago. The Tigers took him with the 11th overall pick in 2024 out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles. They didn’t get him into any minor league games after that draft, so he still has no college or professional experience to speak of.

Still, the expectations are high. As mentioned, BA has him 60th overall already. MLB Pipeline has him at #53, ESPN at #79 and Keith Law of The Athletic at #70. He didn’t crack the FanGraphs list but that outlet highlighted him as a player who has a strong chance of charging into the top 100 once he makes his professional debut. There are some questions about contact ability but his power and throwing arm are considered to be huge assets.

Defensively, McGonigle is considered to have the arm for shortstop but his range and motion are more questionable. Rainer is perhaps a better bet to stick at short but he also still needs to get his feet wet as a professional.

_____

Neither McGonigle nor Rainer have even reached Double-A yet, so there’s still some time before things get really tight. But Báez has three years left on his deal and many fans already calling for him to go. There’s no way for the Tigers to get any of that money back, so the best-case scenario would still be a Báez bounceback. If that doesn’t come to pass, the club could pivot to Sweeney in the short term and then McGonigle and Rainer in the long term. Though prospects don’t always work out as hoped, so there are no guarantees there.

How the chips fall should be impactful for the future of the Tigers. They have no serious commitments on their long-term payroll apart from Báez. Their recent six-year offer to Bregman shows they are willing to get more aggressive. If they can find an internal solution at short, there should be resources available for other parts of the roster.

As for that previously-reported offer from Detroit, Petzold reports that $40MM of it would have been deferred. That’s a sizable amount but notably less than the deal Bregman accepted with the Red Sox. Though the sticker price on the Boston deal is $120MM over three years, $40MM average annual value, there are $20MM in annual deferrals for a $60MM total.

Bregman didn’t accept that offer from the Tigers but seemed perfectly open to joining the club, as his camp made a few counter offers. One of them was for $200MM over seven years, which would have been a $28.6MM AAV. The other was $186MM over six years, $31MM AAV, with an opt-out after 2025. Neither of those offers from Bregman/Boras to the Tigers included deferred money.

Those asks align with previous reporting on what Bregman was looking for in free agency. In the earlier parts of the offseason, he and the Astros seemed to be having a bit of a staring contest. Houston offered $156MM over six years, $26MM AAV, but Bregman reportedly wanted to get closer to $200MM and didn’t like the idea of taking a pay cut in terms of AAV. As part of Bregman’s previous extension with Houston, he made $28.5MM salaries in each of the final two years of the deal. The Astros walked away, which led clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers and Cubs emerging as frontrunners for his services.

His two counter offers to Detroit would have put him a bit above that Houston AAV but it seems the Tigers weren’t quite willing to go there. The previously-reported six-year, $171.5MM offer from Detroit would have led to an AAV of $28.6MM in terms of the sticker price, but the deferrals would have knocked that down. The degree to which the AAV would have dropped would have depended on how far into the future that money was deferred, but it surely would have been below the $28.5MM AAV that Bregman seemed determined to top, or at least match.

When pivoting to a short-term deal, a player usually sacrifices a bit of overall guarantee for greater earning power in the short term. There were reports in the offseason that Bregman was resisting such a pivot, presumably because he had these decent six-year offers from Houston and Detroit. However, since they didn’t quite live up to his expectations, he eventually did turn to a shorter pact. The $40MM AAV he got from the Red Sox is apparently going to be calculated as $31.7MM for competitive balance tax purposes when factoring in the deferrals, but that still allows Bregman to get an AAV bump compared to his last deal.

Whether that will prove to be a wise pivot remains to be seen. Last offseason, several players pivoted to short-term pacts that fell below initial market expectations. Most prominently, the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman took this path. That has already paid off for Chapman and Snell, who each eventually landed the mega deals they were seeking. Chapman initially got $54MM over three years from the Giants but then signed a six-year $151MM extension late in the 2024 season. Snell got $62MM over two years from San Francisco, opted out and then got $182MM over five years from the Dodgers.

For Bellinger and Montgomery, the jury is still out. Bellinger got $80MM over three years from the Cubs, had a good-not-great season and decided not to opt out. He has since been traded to the Yankees and has another opt-out chance after this season. Montgomery got just one-year and $25MM guaranteed but with a vesting option. He vested the $20MM player option and bumped the value to $22.5MM by making at least 18 starts, but decided not to return to free agency after posting a 6.23 earned run average. Montgomery left Boras and later accused the agent of having “butchered” his free agency.

Like those players, Bregman has opt-outs after each year of his deal. He clearly had an idea of where he considered his value to be and went out looking for it this winter. He didn’t fully get everything he was looking for, leaving some long-term money on the table to get the AAV he wanted in the short term. He will have the ability to try again in the future, perhaps as soon as eight-ish months from now.

For the Tigers, though they didn’t get a deal done, it does showcase a greater willingness to spend than they have otherwise. Since Scott Harris has taken over as president of baseball operations, they have avoided long-term commitments. No free agent has signed a deal longer than two years. The club did agree to a six-year extension with Colt Keith, but that only committed the club to his pre-existing window of control. The three club options could keep him around beyond that period but the club will also have the ability to walk away.

The Bregman negotiations show that there are no hard lines against making longer deals and that the club would consider making such an investment if the stars aligned. Perhaps the Tigers could circle back to Bregman next winter if he opts out, though their interest will naturally depend on how things play out in Detroit this year. Young infielders like Keith, Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney and Spencer Torkelson should all be vying for playing time and their performances could determine how forcefully the Tigers look to make a big infield addition next winter.

It’s a proposition that manager A.J. Hinch appears at least somewhat open to, with Hinch noting that Carpenter is “going to get opportunities and probably more opportunities moving forward.” Hinch also cautioned that those opportunities won’t just be gifted to Carpenter once the regular season begins, however.

“But more doesn’t mean every one. And more doesn’t come for free,” Hinch said, as relayed by McCosky. “There is a cost that comes with every decision and we will be weighing that. Last year’s evaluation doesn’t have to be this year’s evaluation. We have an open mind as to how to use our roster. But I stand behind that my job is to use the roster the best way we can.”

Concerns about Carpenter’s ability to produce against southpaws are understandable despite his minimal opportunities against them. He’s a career .202/.286/.303 hitter against lefties in the majors, with a 23.9% strikeout rate, a walk rate of 6.7%, and just four extra-base hits. Those strikeout and walk figures are actually pretty close to Carpenter’s career numbers of 25.6% and 6.9% respectively, but the complete disappearance of Carpenter’s trademark power will need to be overcome in order for the 27-year-old to be a valuable offensive presence against left-handed pitching.

In addition to more opportunities against southpaws, Carpenter is hoping to more frequently work his way into the lineup as an outfielder in 2025 rather than being limited to DH-only duties. Matt Vierling and Wenceel Perez will give Carpenter some competition for that job with Riley Greene and Parker Meadows entrenched in left and center field respectively, but if Carpenter can prove himself a viable option in the field and begin providing at least passable power output against southpaws, the platoon slugger could begin to put together a more well-rounded profile in 2025.

While Carpenter is attempting to carve out a larger role for himself in the outfield, the Tigers are trying to assess the future of veteran Javier Baez on the infield. Baez, 32, missed the club’s surprise playoff push last year after undergoing hip surgery in August. The six-year pact Detroit gave Baez coming off his impressive run with the Cubs from the breakout 2018 season that saw him finish second in NL MVP voting to a 2021 season where he was traded to the Mets and caught fire down the stretch has not gone according to plan.

Since arriving in Detroit, Baez has hit just .221/.262/.347 in three seasons. He remained a plus defender at shortstop for the club in 2022 and ’23, but even his glove took a step back last season and a strong late-season performance from Trey Sweeney as the club’s shortstop has left Baez without a clear role on the team going forward. As noted by McCosky, Baez has resumed swinging at 100% strength but has not yet begun to face live pitching. Even so, he’s on track to begin the season on time, and Hinch made clear that the club is glad to have him healthy and in the fold for 2025 even if his role can’t be determined until after he’s put rehab fully behind him.

One place where Baez appears to be a clear fit for the club’s needs is against left-handed pitching. The Tigers’ offense is heavily left-handed even after adding Gleyber Torres to the lineup at second base, and a right-handed hitter who can help to spell southpaws around the infield like Sweeney and Colt Keith should have plenty of value for Detroit. Baez has been a perfectly acceptable hitter against lefties even during his time in Detroit, slashing .268/.314/.433 (108 wRC+) with a strikeout rate of just 20.1% and 24 extra base hits in 284 trips to the plate against lefties between 2022 and 2023. If he can get back to that level of production against southpaws, Baez could be a key asset for the Tigers this year even if he doesn’t bounce far enough back to reclaim an everyday role.

Baez isn’t the only veteran attempting a comeback after struggling badly in 2024. Veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda is expected to get “every opportunity” to rejoin the club’s rotation after pitching to a 6.09 ERA last year and getting kicked to the bullpen after 17 starts, and news of an injury that will keep veteran righty Alex Cobb off the roster to start the season leaves two open spots in the club’s rotation behind Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson. Maeda figures to be in competition with Casey Mize, Keider Montero, and Jackson Jobe among others as he tries to earn one of those two spots.

In hopes of proving himself capable the soon to be 37-year-old hurler changed up his offseason routine this winter. According to MLive’s Evan Woodbery, Maeda began his offseason work with eight bullpen sessions during his time in Japan this offseason despite the fact that he’s typically waited until he returns stateside for Spring Training to resume throwing. The early start to his throwing program, Maeda noted, is in order to make sure he’s putting his best foot forward as he tries to recapture his rotation job this spring. In addition to starting his preseason regime earlier than usual, Maeda notes that he believes he’s fixed some mechanical issues he dealt with last year after working with the Tigers’ pitching development staff this offseason.

A return to form for Maeda would be a major help for a Tigers club with plenty of upside but little certainty in the rotation. Dominant as Skubal was in his Cy Young award-winning season last year, he’s dealt with plenty of injury issues throughout his career. The same can be said for Flaherty, Mize, Jobe, Matt Manning, and a host of other potentially key pitchers for the Tigers this year. Maeda’s own injury history is far from clean, but having an effective veteran starter at the back of the rotation should nonetheless be a major help for the club as they look for better results out of a rotation that saw only Skubal make more than 22 starts and only Mize and Olson join him in making at least 20 last year.

Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that he wasn’t disappointed by Bregman’s decision to head to Boston.  “We made a compelling offer to Alex Bregman but he chose to sign somewhere else.  That’s fine.  We knew that was a possibility throughout the process, and we planned for that outcome,” Harris said.

The fact that the Tigers made such a push for Bregman was itself notable, as it represented the first time since Harris was hired in September 2022 that Detroit truly appeared willing to stretch the budget on a long-term free agent commitment.  Jack Flaherty (whose deal contains a player option for 2026) and Kenta Maeda are the only free agents to receive even a two-year contract during Harris’ relatively brief tenure.  Harris praised team owner Chris Illitch for giving “us the flexibility to chase some key free agents,” so the strategy is apparently less about money than it is about Harris’ oft-stated desire to build primarily around the Tigers’ young core.

“We don’t want to be that organization that is desperate to sign a specific free agent or hinging on our current plan or our future plans on a certain free agent,” Harris said.  “We have to be dependent on the young talent we’re acquiring and developing….I will say we feel like what we did this offseason, we made the moves we needed to make. We supplemented this young, emerging group with guys who can make the team better without blocking our young players.”

“It didn’t make sense for us, before or after Alex, to pivot to someone who would just take our money.  In recent winters, we’ve seen teams continuing to pivot until someone takes their money.  It may win a press release, but it may not actually push your organization forward.  We were very conscious of that throughout the winter and we were very targeted about the players we wanted to add to this group.”

Beyond the reunion with Flaherty, the Tigers also signed Alex Cobb to further bolster the rotation, and added veteran relievers Tommy Kahnle and John Brebbia on one-year deals.  On the position-player side, Gleyber Torres was signed to a one-year, $14MM contract to step in as the new everyday second baseman, pushing Colt Keith into a first base role.

The right-handed hitting Torres also gives Detroit a bit more balance within a lineup that still pretty heavy with left-handed bats.  Acquiring a marquee righty-swinger like Bregman would have further helped with that balance and naturally boosted the offense as a whole, and Harris hasn’t closed the door on still addressing this need.

“There hasn’t been a ton of options for us to add a second right-handed bat,” the PBO said.  “We don’t think there is going to be one coming through free agency.  We’re going to explore trade options but we feel really good about the group we have, and we think it is a group that’s going to continue to get better.”

With this internal focus in mind, Harris cited Jace Jung, Matt Vierling, and Andy Ibanez as the chief in-house candidates for third base work.  “It’s going to be a competition in Spring Training” to decide exactly how the playing time might be divvied up, and Harris noted that “we have a really talented manager [A.J. Hinch] who is going to find the right matchup for those guys.”

Hensley was a 26th-round pick by the Astros in 2018. He got to the majors with Houston four years later. Hensley appeared in 46 games between 2022-23, hitting .177/.273/.274 over 128 plate appearances. The Astros kept him in Triple-A for the first half of last season. They designated him for assignment in the middle of July.

Miami grabbed Hensley off waivers. He took 58 trips to the dish with the Marlins, hitting .212/.293/.288. The Fish waived him at the beginning of the offseason. Hensley went unclaimed and elected minor league free agency. He’s a .188/.280/.279 hitter over 169 major league plate appearances.

The righty-swinging Hensley has a better minor league track record. He has taken over 1100 Triple-A plate appearances and has a .257/.384/.413 showing at the top minor league level. That’s built largely on a near-17% walk rate, as Hensley has shown a very patient plate approach. He has plenty of experience at all four infield positions and has some time in the corner outfield.

The Tigers also proposed a six-year offer, as first reported by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold initially reported that Detroit’s offer was for narrowly above $170MM and included an opt-out clause after the second season. It had some amount of deferred money. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specified it as a $171.5MM offer.

Detroit’s offer came with an approximate $28.58MM average annual value, before accounting for deferrals. Bregman obviously fared much better on an annual basis on the agreement with Boston. It seems as if Detroit offered the highest overall guarantee. The Astros had a six-year, $156MM offer on the table for most of the winter. While they reportedly bumped that towards the end of the process, they didn’t seem optimistic about getting a deal done.

Indeed, it doesn’t seem that Houston was even in the running by the end. Nightengale reports that the Cubs, Tigers and Red Sox were the finalists. As with Boston, Chicago only seemed interested on a short-term deal. However, they weren’t willing to match the Sox’s offer on an annual basis. Nightengale reports that the Cubs proposed a four-year, $120MM deal. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, that would have included opt-outs after the second and third seasons.

The Tigers and Cubs would each have kept Bregman at his traditional third base position. They’re likely to turn the hot corner to young players with top prospect pedigree but little to no MLB experience (Jace Jung and Matt Shaw, respectively). Bregman is ticketed for second base work in Boston, where Rafael Devers will stick at the hot corner.

Brebbia’s deal includes $2MM in performance bonuses in both seasons — $250K each for 50, 55, 60 and 65 appearances and $250K apiece at 40, 45, 50, and 55 games finished. The ’26 option price can escalate based on his numbers this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone.

It’s a late addition to A.J. Hinch’s middle relief group. Brebbia split the 2024 campaign between the White Sox and Braves. He spent the bulk of the season in Chicago, where he initially looked to be a potential trade chip. He carried a strong 30% strikeout rate and a tidy 5.6% walk percentage over 38 innings into the All-Star Break. A low left-on-base rate contributed to a middling 4.50 earned run average, but he’d held opposing hitters to a .235/.288/.389 showing across 160 plate appearances.

Brebbia had a few ill-timed blowups in the weeks between the All-Star Break and the trade deadline. That tanked Chicago’s chances of dealing him. He continued to struggle into August. The Sox released him towards the end of that month. There was minimal value for them in carrying an impending free agent middle reliever for the final few weeks of the season. Brebbia caught on with Atlanta and tossed 6 2/3 frames of two-run ball over five appearances to finish the year.

The 34-year-old finished the season with an unsightly 5.86 ERA across 55 1/3 innings. His more interesting strikeout and walk numbers led Detroit to give him an Opening Day bullpen job. Brebbia had allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in 2022 and ’23 as a member of the Giants. He fanned 29.2% of batters faced two seasons ago and has a quality 25.9% strikeout rate over his seven-year MLB career.

Brebbia and Tommy Kahnle are new additions to a Detroit bullpen that’ll be anchored by holdovers Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, Tyler Holton and Will Vest. They’re likely to have Kenta Maeda in a long relief role even with Alex Cobb set to open the season on the injured list.

Lange was Detroit’s season-opening closer in 2024. He had a tough time finding the strike zone and was optioned to Triple-A in the middle of May. Lange suffered a lat tear while pitching in the minors and required season-ending surgery in June. Detroit evidently didn’t feel he’d be ready within the first couple months of this season. The IL placement shelves him until late May at the earliest.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Englert, 25, was with the Tigers for the past two years. A Rule 5 pick from the Rangers, he stuck on the roster through the 2023 season. Once the Tigers had full control over his rights for 2024, he was shuttled between Triple-A and the majors. Over those two campaigns, he tossed 77 2/3 innings for Detroit, allowing 5.45 earned runs per nine. His 16.5% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.4% clip.

Those numbers aren’t mind-blowing, but Englert was better in the minors last year. He tossed 49 2/3 innings on the farm over 32 appearances with a 3.08 ERA, 33% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Prior to his Rule 5 selection, he tossed 199 1/3 minor league innings over 2021 and 2022 with a 3.93 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate.

Englert is still fairly young and has a couple of options years remaining. The major league results haven’t been there yet but the minor league numbers seem to be intriguing enough that the Rays have brought him aboard. As a club that rotates pitchers through the roster fairly frequently, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Englert moves between Triple-A and the majors throughout the coming season.

Lavender, 25, was just taken in the most recent Rule 5 draft. He had Tommy John surgery in May and likely won’t be able to return until the second half. Today’s transfer officially rules him out of the first two months of the campaign.

Though the Tigers had to bump Englert off the roster, they are at least getting something in return. Sommers, 24, was an 11th-round selection of the Rays in 2022. In 2023, he tossed 43 Single-A innings with a 2.72 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 53.3% ground ball rate. Last year, he got bumped up to High-A and tossed 54 innings with an ERA of 4.00, 27.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and massive 67.8% ground ball rate. He’s not considered a top prospect but will give the Tigers an intriguing lefty relief option to plug into their system.

It’s an immediate blow to the Tigers’ staff, though Detroit is better positioned than most clubs to handle an absence (be it short- or long-term). Reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is locked into the top spot on the staff. Flaherty is back to take the No. 2 spot. Righties Reese Olson and Casey Mize give Hinch a pair of reliable arms in the third and fourth spots on the staff.

Top prospect Jackson Jobe was already going to be in the mix for a possible rotation spot this spring, and he’ll now have an even clearer path. He’ll have competition both in the form of veteran arms and fellow up-and-comers. Righty Kenta Maeda is currently slated for a swingman role, but it’s feasible that a pitcher with his track record could pitch his way back into the mix with a big spring showing. Elsewhere on the 40-man roster are righties Keider Montero, Matt Manning and Ty Madden, as well as lefty Brant Hurter. All have at least some degree of big league experience. Former big leaguer Dietrich Enns is also in camp on a minor league deal after a decent showing in the Korea Baseball Organization last year.

Cobb, 37, pitched just 16 1/3 innings during the regular season last year. He added 5 2/3 frames of postseason ball and another 23 in the minors, bringing him to a combined 45 frames on the year. Beyond the hip issue, Cobb battled shoulder fatigue and some blisters on his pitching hand.

Injuries are common for Cobb, but he’s generally been effective when healthy — especially in the latter stages of his career. Up through 2016, Cobb worked primarily off a four-seamer/curveball/changeup repertoire. Whether due to struggles in his return from 2015 Tommy John surgery or another reason, he’s revamped that arsenal over the years and also found some extra life on his pitches.

Cobb’s primary offering is now a sinker that’s averaged 94.6 mph over the past three seasons — a notable uptick from the 91 mph he averaged on his four-seamer from 2011-16. He’s gone from a straight changeup in the mid-80s to a splitter that averaged 89.6 mph in 2022-24. He’s still relying on a knuckle curve, but the pitch now sits 83-84 mph rather than 79-80 mph like it did in his early days.

While Cobb’s injury is an unwelcome development early in camp, at this point there’s no indication it’ll be a long-term issue. And, if he’s truly set back by about a month, he could still get going in mid-March, perhaps setting him up for a mid-April team debut. As such, the Tigers don’t necessarily seem like they’ll need to dip back into the free agent market for rotation arms, though further setbacks from Cobb or additional injuries on the staff could always change the outlook.

Turner remains a quality offensive player. He combined for a .259/.354/.383 slash across 539 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and Mariners last season. His production improved after a deadline trade to Seattle, no small feat for a hitter adapting to the game’s most pitcher-friendly home park. It was the 11th consecutive season in which Turner has been an above-average hitter. While he doesn’t have the same power that he did during his peak years with the Dodgers, he’s still a strong on-base presence with very good strike zone discipline.

Chicago isn’t the lone team with interest in both Bregman and Turner. Mooney and Rosenthal write that the Tigers and Red Sox have also shown some level of interest in Turner. That comprises three of what appears to be the top four suitors — alongside the incumbent Astros — on Bregman. Houston has not been linked to Turner and wouldn’t make sense as a landing spot with Yordan Alvarez ticketed for DH work.

The Cubs could be a tough roster fit in their own right. Seiya Suzuki will get the majority of at-bats at designated hitter. He’s capable of playing right field but squeezed out of a starting outfield of Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. Turner would be a target as a role-playing corner infield bat. The Cubs have lefty-swinging Michael Busch lined up for the bulk of the first base work. They don’t have any kind of established third baseman after including Isaac Paredes in the Tucker trade. Unless they make a late-offseason strike for Bregman, they’d very likely turn the hot corner to top prospect Matt Shaw.

Turner is not an everyday third baseman at this point of his career. He started four games there last season after logging seven starts in 2023. He hasn’t played more than half a season at the position since 2021. Turner has played more frequently at first base, where he started 40 games last year. He could take some at-bats from Busch against lefty pitching, though Busch had a respectable showing (.258/.330/.382 in 100 plate appearances) in unfavorable platoon situations as a rookie.

The Tigers and Red Sox have each been seeking a right-handed bat. Boston has limited flexibility to accommodate another player at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. The Sox have Rafael Devers and Triston Casas as their corner infield tandem. Masataka Yoshida is lined up for the bulk of the DH work going into the third season of his five-year deal. Boston would probably use Bregman at second base if they landed him. The Sox gave Turner himself four starts at the keystone when he played in Boston in 2023. He wouldn’t play second regularly but could rotate through the position alongside Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton if top prospect Kristian Campbell opens the season in Triple-A.

Detroit signed Gleyber Torres to play second base. That kicked Colt Keith over to first base, squeezing righty-hitting Spencer Torkelson out of the starting lineup. Turner’s right-handed bat could play well in a lefty-heavy corner infield/DH mix. Keith and Jace Jung, the projected starter at third base if they don’t sign Bregman, each hit from the left side. Kerry Carpenter, who’ll split his time between right field and DH, is a lefty hitter who mashes when he holds the platoon advantage.

Seattle showed interest in a Turner reunion early in the offseason. That’s less likely now that they’ve added righty-hitting Donovan Solano on a $3.5MM free agent deal to platoon with Luke Raley at first base. Mooney and Rosenthal report that the Reds have also spoken with Turner this offseason, though it’s not clear if that interest is ongoing. Cincinnati acquired Gavin Lux to deepen the infield and could give righty hitters Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer a decent amount of run at first base.