- The Guardians put starter Peyton Battenfield on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 18, with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The rookie righty has been a member of Cleveland’s rotation since being called up in mid-April. He’s started six of seven appearances but struggled to a 5.19 ERA through 34 2/3 innings. The Oklahoma State product has a modest 18.5% strikeout rate and has given up seven home runs. He spent virtually all of last season with Triple-A Columbus, working to a 3.63 ERA over 28 starts. Battenfield’s next turn through the rotation was scheduled for Monday, so the Guardians will need to settle on a replacement for that series opener against the White Sox.
Guardians Rumors
Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
The Guardians’ Lineup Needs An Overhaul
The 2022 Guardians skated to a division title in the American League Central and did so with a lineup unlike any other in MLB. Cleveland’s offense was a triumph for fans of small ball and the older-school game that relied far less on the long ball than today’s brand of three-true-outcomes offenses. The ’22 Guardians put the ball in play more than any other team in baseball, and it wasn’t close. Their 18.2% strikeout rate was the lowest in MLB and made them one of just four teams shy of 20%. The others — the Astros (19.5%), Mets (19.7%) and Cardinals (19.9%) — weren’t particularly close. Cleveland ranked 15th in the Majors in runs scored despite ranking 29th in home runs. Their 119 steals (a number that seems pedestrian in light of this year’s rule changes) ranked third in MLB.
Fast forward a season, and the lineup has a similar complexion but staggeringly different outcome. The 2023 Guardians are MLB’s most punchless team, ranking dead last with 24 home runs — just eight more than Pete Alonso has by himself. Cleveland’s 150 runs scored entering play Friday led only the Tigers (143), and the Guards had played two more games than Detroit. Cleveland enters play ranking 28th in the Majors with a .228 batting average and .302 on-base percentage, and 30th out of 30 teams with a .341 slugging percentage.
As The Athletic’s Zack Meisel pointed out Wednesday (Twitter link), Cleveland catchers have been astonishingly anemic at the plate. Prior to Cam Gallagher’s single yesterday, the Guardians hadn’t received a hit from their catcher since the calendar flipped to May; Gallagher was hitless in 32 at-bats entering play yesterday, while Zunino is currently 0-for-27 with 21 strikeouts this month.
The Guards opened the season surprisingly carrying three catchers: Mike Zunino, Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria. Even after designating Viloria for assignment, they added another catching option in 27-year-old David Fry. The Guardians have gotten less production from behind the dish than any team in the American League. Zunino, Gallagher, Viloria and Fry have combined for a .127/.225/.231 slash (29 wRC+) while serving as catcher, striking out in 38.4% of their plate appearances.
All of this comes at a time when Cleveland has one of baseball’s top catching prospects thrashing Triple-A pitching. Bo Naylor has appeared in 39 games with Columbus, taken 180 turns at the plate and batted .264/.400/.521 with nine home runs, eight doubles, a triple, a sky-high 18.3% walk rate and a 22.6% strikeout rate. The bar he’d need to clear in order to be an upgrade could scarcely be lower, yet he’s still in the minors while Cleveland backstops endure a nearly three-week-long hitless streak.
The problem isn’t confined to the team’s catching corps, although that’s the most glaring weak point in the lineup. Still, here are the Guardians’ position-by-position rankings, in terms of wRC+, at the other positions on the diamond: first base (90, 21st in MLB), second base (86, 19th in MLB), shortstop (79, 23rd in MLB), third base (116, sixth in MLB), left field (97, tied for 13th in MLB), center field (74, 28th in MLB), right field (37, 30th in MLB), designated hitter (80, 26th in MLB).
Jose Ramirez (.285/.364/.457) remains excellent and is the one still decidedly above-average hitter on the roster, although even he’s having a down year by his MVP-caliber standards. Steven Kwan has been solid in left field (.269/.356/.353) but not as good as during last year’s sensational rookie campaign. No other player who’s taken 20 plate appearances for Cleveland this season has been better than league-average at the plate.
Some of this was to be expected. The Guardians surely weren’t hoping to get much offensive production from catcher — though they hoped for more than this — and knew Myles Straw’s contributions would come more from his elite center field defense and baserunning. But every hitter on the roster has taken a step back from last season’s performance.
The offseason signing of Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal looks regrettable with the Guardians getting closer to the Padres version of Bell from 2022 than the Nationals version. In 177 plate appearances, Bell is walking at a huge 14.7% clip but has batted only .227/.339/.3535 with three home runs. His 19.8% strikeout rate would be the second-highest of his career, and his .127 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) is 33 points south of the league average and 67 points below his own career mark. Bell is hitting the ball on the ground at a staggering 58.6% rate. He can opt out of his contract at season’s end, but it would take a drastic turnaround for that to seem realistic.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has optioned last year’s primary right fielder, Oscar Gonzalez, to Triple-A after he followed up last year’s .296/.327/.461 debut with a .192/.213/.288 start to his sophomore season. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco has already outlined shortstop Amed Rosario’s struggles, and Josh Naylor hasn’t been any better at first base. Will Brennan, called up to replace the demoted Gonzalez, has barely been an improvement.
The Guardians’ commitments to defense-, contact- and/or speed-oriented players at multiple positions isn’t inherently flawed, but it only works if the rest of the lineup is capable of supporting players like Straw and Zunino (or, in last year’s case, Austin Hedges). That hasn’t been the case in 2023. The Guardians’ team strikeout rate is up nearly two percentage points (from 18.2% to 19.8%), while their team BABIP is down 20 points (from .294 to .274).
That might not seem like much — perhaps an extra strikeout and one extra ball in play turned into an out per game — but the margin for error is thin when there’s practically no one on the team with even average power. The Guardians are completely reliant on balls in play to manufacture runs, which leaves them at the mercy of sequencing and hitting when it counts. Entering play Thursday, they’d batted .228/.296/.325 as a team with men on base. Last year, they hit .258/.319/.394 in such situations.
These struggles all come in spite of remarkably good health among the team’s collection of position players. The Guardians don’t have a position player on the injured list at the moment and in fact haven’t placed a hitter on the Major League injured list all season. They’ve still had injury troubles — Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale and Sam Hentges have most notably been sidelined — but they’ve come exclusively on the pitching side of the roster.
As for how they can turn things around, the avenues to doing so aren’t plentiful in mid-May. The trade market simply isn’t active this time of season — and that was true even before an expansion to a 12-team playoff field likely further emboldened fringe contenders to take a wait-and-see approach to trade deadline season.
Over the past half decade, there have been just two mostly regular position players who were traded in May and had not first been designated for assignment. The Rays shipped Willy Adames and righty Trevor Richards to the Brewers for right-handers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen back in 2021. Tampa Bay was also involved in a 2018 swap with the Mariners, centering around Denard Span and Alex Colome. That’s not to say a deal can’t and won’t happen, but history tells us it’s overwhelmingly unlikely. Cleveland can certainly monitor the DFA and waiver market, but with a 20-23 record they’re not close to top waiver priority right now.
If the Guardians are going to right the ship, they’ll need to promote from within. Bo Naylor is an obvious candidate to join the big league roster and quite arguably should already be there. Tyler Freeman hit .329/.468/.482 in 109 Triple-A plate appearances before being called up to the roster but is being used in a bench role. He’s not a home run threat himself and the team isn’t going to bench Andres Gimenez seven weeks into a seven-year extension, but there are still ways to get Freeman into the lineup more regularly. Top outfield prospect George Valera only just made his season debut in Triple-A a week ago, as he missed the first several weeks of the year recovering from hamate surgery. If he’s able to approximate the .264/.367/.470 output he showed in Double-A last year over even a small sample, there’s good reason to give him a look in right field over both Brennan and Gonzalez sooner rather than later.
The Guardians are rather fortunate that they’ve managed to remain as close to .500 as they have. They’re sitting on a -31 run differential, while the Pythagorean win-loss system and BaseRuns both put their expected record at 18-25. Their sub-par run differential and sub-.500 record come despite the fact that Baseball-Reference grades their strength of schedule to date as the third-easiest in MLB.
Cleveland has already gone full speed ahead with a youth movement in the rotation, giving prospects Tanner Bibee, Logan T. Allen and Peyton Battenfield prominent rotation spots. Some of that’s been necessitated by injury, but the Guardians weren’t shy about optioning one of their most experienced starters, Zach Plesac, to Columbus when he wasn’t performing up to expectations. Given the state of their lineup, it shouldn’t be long before they take a similar approach on the position-player side of the roster. And, if some of those young bats don’t break through, the Guardians ought to be on the lookout for controllable bats heading into the trade deadline — particularly with so much young pitching at their disposal. The schedule is only going to become more difficult from here on out, and the current group of hitters gives little reason for optimism.
Triston McKenzie To Begin Rehab Assignment
Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie is headed out on a rehab assignment this Saturday, tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. He’s slated to throw three innings and throw up to 50 pitches in what’ll likely be the first of multiple rehab outings. Cleveland has been without the 25-year-old righty all season due to a teres major strain, and the Guards have felt the absence acutely. Cleveland starters, regularly among the best in baseball, instead rank 15th in MLB with a 4.32 ERA this season. They’ve gotten strong results from several young hurlers Tanner Bibee and Logan T. Allen, but righties Hunter Gaddis, Zach Plesac and (to a lesser extent) Peyton Battenfield have all had their struggles.
Guardians Recall Brayan Rocchio
The Guardians announced to reporters, including Zack Meisel of The Athletic, that they have recalled infield prospect Brayan Rocchio. He’ll take the roster spot of third baseman José Ramírez, who has been placed on the bereavement list. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extra Base had previously reported on Rocchio’s promotion.
Rocchio, 22, actually joined the big league club once already, but he was optioned the next day without getting into a game. Both Amed Rosario and Tyler Freeman were dealing with some minor injuries at that time but ultimately didn’t need to go on the injured list. As such, Rocchio is still looking to make his major league debut, despite that brief trip to the big leagues last month.
Signed as an amateur out of Venezuela, he has continued to impress prospect evaluators as he’s risen up the minor league ladder. Coming into this year, he was placed on lists of the top 100 prospects in the league by Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic.
Those outlets generally praise Rocchio’s infield defense and his bat-to-ball skills as he doesn’t strike out or walk much. Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 18 home runs and striking out at just a 17.5% clip. That led to a batting line of .257/.336/.420 and wRC+ of 106 between the two levels. This year, he’s been struck out in just 12.8% of his trips to the plate at Triple-A while hitting .338/.396/.486 for a wRC+ of 126.
Rocchio has split his time between shortstop and second base this year but has also seen some time at third base in the lower levels. He’s not in the lineup tonight, as the Guardians have Gabriel Arias at third while the usual middle infield tandem of Rosario and Andrés Giménez are still in place. It’s possible that Rocchio is only up to serve in a reserve capacity for a few days until Ramírez returns, but he will hopefully get a chance to make his debut this time.
The Upcoming Shortstop Class Looks Increasingly Bleak
The top free agent storyline of each of the past two offseasons was the respective star-studded shortstop classes. In 2021-22, it was Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez. Last winter, Correa was back on the market again, joined by Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
Next winter’s group was never going to rival that previous collection. The class in general is very light on star position player talent beyond Shohei Ohtani. It’s particularly barren up the middle of the diamond. It’s hard to imagine a more complete 180° turn than how things appear to be trending with the shortstop class, though. Virtually everyone involved is off to a very slow start.
The early-season performances from the impending free agents at the position:
Amed Rosario (28)*
While Rosario is not the superstar some evaluators had anticipated during his time in the Mets’ farm system, he’d been a solid regular for two seasons since landing in Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster. Rosario’s solid batting averages helped offset his very low walk tallies. He hit 25+ doubles with double-digit homers in both 2021-22, playing on a near everyday basis. His cumulative .282/.316/.406 batting line was almost exactly league average. Public metrics were mixed on Rosario’s defense but the Guardians have been content to keep him at shortstop despite plenty of upper minors infield talent. Only 27 and without a ton of market competition, he entered the year in position for a strong three or four-year contract.
That could still be the case but Rosario is doing himself no favors with his early performance. He’s sitting on a .217/.262/.300 showing through his first 130 plate appearances. He has just one homer and is striking out at a 29.2% clip that’d easily be the worst full-season mark of his career if it holds. After making contact on 81.3% of his swings last season, he’s putting the bat on the ball only 71.5% of the time this year. He’s also committed six errors in 255 1/3 innings after being charged with just 12 in more than 1200 frames last year. Rosario is still the top impending free agent shortstop by default but he’s struggling in all areas right now.
Javier Báez (31), can opt out of final four years and $98MM on his contract
Báez is hitting .256/.318/.376 through his first 130 plate appearances. That’s an improvement over the lackluster .238/.278/.393 line he managed during his first season in Detroit. His 16.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, pushing his overall offense near league average in spite of just three home runs in 32 games. Báez’s 2023 campaign has been fine but hardly overwhelming. It’s nowhere near what it’d take for him to beat the $98MM remaining on his existing contract. He’d need a torrid summer to put himself in position to test free agency.
Enrique Hernández (32)
Hernández has been pushed into primary shortstop duty by the Red Sox’ various injuries. The early reviews from public defensive metrics aren’t favorable, with Statcast putting him at seven outs below average in 199 innings. Hernández is off to an equally slow start at the plate. He’s hitting .236/.295/.362 over 139 plate appearances on the heels of a .222/.291/.338 showing last year. He’s been a valuable super-utility option and everyday center fielder at times in his career, including a 20-homer campaign in 2021. The past year-plus hasn’t been especially impressive, though, and Hernández has yet to demonstrate he’s capable of handling shortstop regularly from a defensive standpoint.
Brandon Crawford (37)
The career-long Giant had a tough April on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .169/.244/.352 with a personal-high 28.2% strikeout rate in 21 games. His defensive marks through 173 2/3 innings are unanimously below-average. A right calf strain sent him to the injured list last week. Even if Crawford is willing to explore all opportunities next winter after 13 seasons in San Francisco, he’ll need much better production once he returns from the IL to find any interest as a starting shortstop.
Elvis Andrus (35)
Much of what applies to Crawford is also true for Andrus. He’s a 15-year MLB veteran with a couple All-Star appearances to his name but his offense has fallen off in recent seasons. Andrus was a well below-average hitter from 2018-21. He rebounded with a solid .249/.303/.404 showing last season but still didn’t generate much free agent attention. After settling for a $3MM deal with the White Sox, he’s hitting only .208/.291/.264 in 142 plate appearances this year. Andrus hit 17 homers last season but has just one through the first six weeks.
Nick Ahmed (34)
Another glove-first veteran, Ahmed is also off to a rough start at the plate. He carries a .227/.239/.318 line over 67 plate appearances. He’s hit only one home run and walked just once. Ahmed has always been a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist, but his career .235/.289/.380 slash is much more tenable than the production he’s managed thus far in 2023. He lost almost all of last season to shoulder surgery.
Gio Urshela (32)
Urshela is hitting plenty of singles to start his time in Orange County. His .303 batting average is impressive but is paired with just a .325 on-base percentage and .345 slugging mark. He’s walking at a career-low 3.3% clip and has only three extra-base hits (two doubles and a homer) in 123 plate appearances.
More concerning for teams looking to the shortstop market is Urshela’s lack of experience at the position. He’s been a third baseman for the majority of his career. Since landing with the Angels, he’s assumed a multi-positional infield role that has given him eight-plus starts at shortstop and both corner infield spots. Even if he starts hitting for more power, he’s better deployed as a versatile infielder who can moonlight at shortstop than an everyday solution there.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (28)
Kiner-Falefa lost his starting shortstop role with the Yankees towards the end of last season. He’s been kicked into a multi-positional capacity this year and hasn’t logged a single inning at the position in 2023. While Kiner-Falefa presumably could still handle shortstop if asked, he’s contributed nothing offensively in the early going. Through 72 plate appearances, he owns a .191/.225/.206 line.
Adalberto Mondesí (28)
Mondesí is young and has flashed tantalizing tools throughout his major league career. He’s also reached base at a meager .280 clip over 358 MLB games and battled various injuries. An April 2022 ACL tear cut that season short after just 15 games. The Red Sox nevertheless acquired him from the Royals over the offseason, but he’s yet to play a game with Boston. Mondesí opened the season on the 60-day injured list and won’t make his Sox debut until at least the end of this month. There’s a chance for him to play his way into some free agent interest. He’ll need an extended stretch of health and performance.
Players With Club Options
Both Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong can hit free agency if the White Sox and Cardinals decline respective 2024 club options. That seems likely in DeJong’s case but is reflective of the .196/.280/.351 line he managed between 2020-22. If he plays well enough to warrant significant free agent interest — he has been excellent in 11 games this season, to his credit — the Cardinals would exercise their $12.5MM option and keep him off the market anyhow.
The White Sox hold a $14MM option on Anderson’s services. That looks as if it’ll be a no-brainer for Chicago to keep him around (or exercise and make him available in trade). The only way Anderson gets to free agency is if his 2023 season is decimated by injury or an uncharacteristic performance drop-off, in which case he’d be a question mark as well.
Outlook
This was never going to be a great group. It’s comprised largely of glove-first veterans in their mid-30s. Players like Andrus, Ahmed, Crawford and José Iglesias — who’ll also hit free agency and has bounced around on minor league deals thus far in 2023 — don’t tend to be priority targets. That opened the door for the likes of Rosario, Báez and a potentially healthy Mondesí — younger players who have shown some offensive upside — to separate themselves from the pack in a way they wouldn’t have the last couple winters. No one has seized the mantle to this point. While there are still more than four months for someone to emerge, the early returns on the shortstop class aren’t promising.
*age for the 2024 season
Meibrys Viloria Elects Free Agency
Catcher Meibrys Viloria has elected free agency, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That suggests he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the club last week. He had the right to elect free agency by virtue of having previously been outrighted in his career.
The Guardians somewhat surprisingly opted to carry three backstops on their active roster to start the season, with Mike Zunino backed up by Cam Gallagher and Viloria, none of whom could be optioned to the minors. Viloria was seemingly third on the depth chart, as he was put into 10 games during his time on the roster but mostly as a late-game replacement, only garnering four plate appearances in roughly a month on the roster.
He had spent most of his previous career with the Royals, jumping to the Rangers in 2022 before coming to the Guards this year. He’s mustered just a .198/.270/.279 batting line in 280 plate appearances, dating back to the start of the 2018 season. However, he’s been roughly a league-average pitch framer over the past few years and is considered above-average in controlling the running game when looking at Statcast’s new caught stealing above average metric. He’s also hit much better in Triple-A, currently sporting a line of .280/.422/.440 in 430 plate appearances at that level.
He will now head out to the open market and look for his next opportunity. There are several teams around the league dealing with injuries to their catching depth, but given that Viloria just cleared waivers, he’s probably going to be limited to minor league deals.
Guardians Release Roman Quinn
The Guardians announced Tuesday that outfielder Roman Quinn has been released. He’d been playing with their Triple-A affiliate after signing a minor league deal over the winter but coming up shy of a roster spot in spring training. Quinn is now a free agent and will look to sign on with another club in search of some speed and/or outfield depth.
Quinn, 29, was once a touted prospect in the Phillies organization but has never found his footing in the big leagues. He appeared in 15 games with the Guardians’ Triple-A club this year but managed only a .176/.391/.235 batting line in 48 plate appearances. That comes on the heels of a .215/.287/.304 showing in 87 big league plate appearances between the Rays and Phillies in 2022.
In parts of six Major League seasons, Quinn has tallied 599 plate appearances with a tepid .226/.303/.348 batting line to show for his efforts. Contact has been a considerable problem for Quinn, who’s fanned in 30.4% of his plate appearances against an 8% walk rate.
While Quinn doesn’t hit much, he’s a flat-out burner on the basepaths and in the outfield — evidenced by a 96th-percentile ranking from Statcast for his average sprint speed during the 2022 season. Despite a paltry .303 career on-base percentage, Quinn has swiped 43 bases in 54 tries (79.6%). He’s also capable of playing all three outfield positions and has drawn above-average grades for his glovework from both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average.
Guardians Option Oscar Gonzalez To Triple-A
After hitting only .192/.213/.288 over his first 75 plate appearances, Guardians outfielder Oscar Gonzalez has been optioned to Triple-A Columbus. Infielder Tyler Freeman has been called up to replace Gonzalez on Cleveland’s active roster.
Gonzalez is the second prominent Guardians player to be optioned in the last three days, after Zach Plesac was also sent down to Columbus on Thursday. Plesac was more of an established big leaguer than Gonzalez, yet both moves are indicative of how the Guards are trying to shake things up after an underwhelming 14-18 start to the season.
One of several young players who contributed to the Guardians’ success in 2022, Gonzalez made his MLB debut last season and hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 homers over 382 PA in his rookie season. His most memorable moments included a pair of walkoff hits in the postseason — the 15th-inning home run that allowed the Guardians to eliminate the Rays in the Wild Card Series, and a walkoff single that led Cleveland to a win over the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS.
Despite this early success, Gonzalez displayed some weak points that have continued into 2023. He has ranked near the bottom of the walk in both walk rate and chase rate in both seasons, even if his actual strikeout rate is above average. Gonzalez’s hard-hit rate has also plummeted from a respectable 40.1% in 2022 to just 31% this year.
The Guardians entered the season using Gonzalez and Will Brennan in a right field platoon, with Brennan seeing the majority of at-bats as a left-handed hitter. Manager Terry Francona told reporters (including Cleveland.com) that the team’s desire to use Gonzalez on a more regular basis contributed to the decision to send him to Triple-A.
“We might be doing Oscar right now a disservice by playing him sparingly….Last time we called him up, he had a lot of at-bats under his belt and felt really good about himself. So we’re going to hopefully get him going again, as opposed to playing him every so often,” Francona said.
Freeman might be an example of this very tactic, as the former top-100 prospect (who also made his MLB debut in 2022) returns to the majors on the strength of a hot streak with Columbus. The Guardians called Freeman up for two games in April, but Freeman has otherwise spent the season at Triple-A, and is batting .329/.468/.482 over 109 PA with the Clippers.
It remains to be seen where Freeman will fit into Cleveland’s lineup or how often he’ll play, but Gabriel Arias is notably getting the start in right field today for the Guardians against the Twins (and right-handed starter Sonny Gray). Arias is yet another highly-touted prospect from the Guardians’ farm system, but he hasn’t shown much over an even 100 plate appearances at the big league level. Only 43 of those PA have come this season, so Arias and Freeman might get some looks as part of the right field platoon even though both are infielders by trade. Arias has made a handful of appearances as a left fielder during his career but today marks his pro debut in right field.
Guardians Option Zach Plesac
The Guardians announced Thursday that they’ve optioned struggling right-hander Zach Plesac to Triple-A Columbus. It’s the first time he’s been optioned to the minors since the 2020 season.
Plesac’s 2023 campaign has been a disaster thus far. While he’s walking fewer hitters than ever (4.8%), he’s also sporting a career-low 13.3% strikeout rate. Opponents have posted a staggering .374/.404/.576 batting line against Plesac, and while a .410 average on balls in play surely points to at least some small-sample randomness that might even out over the course of a season, his struggles can’t be solely pinned on bad luck. Plesac has yielded a 91.7 mph average exit velocity, and 43% of the balls put in play against him have been hit at 95 mph or greater. His fastball has averaged a career-low 91.4 mph, and this season’s 9.6% swinging-strike rate is his lowest since debuting back in 2019.
Now 28 years old, Plesac had a strong debut effort in 2019-20, tossing 171 innings of 3.32 ERA ball with a 21.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. That performance helped him earn a place in the team’s long-term rotation, but it’s been a steady downhill trajectory since. That early success was in no small part due to a tiny .246 average on balls in play and lofty 81.5% strand rate. Those numbers regressed toward the league averages in 2021-22 and did so in conjunction with velocity and strikeout rate both taking a step back. The result was 274 1/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball — a passable but unexciting set of results that looked more commensurate with a fourth or fifth starter than what Plesac had displayed in his first two seasons.
Now, with Plesac optioned out, the Guards will seemingly go with a mostly young and inexperienced group in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Shane Bieber remains entrenched atop the starting staff, and righty Cal Quantrill is holding onto a spot despite some struggles of his own. Behind that pair, the Guardians currently have a trio of rookies: Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Peyton Battenfield. Bibee and Allen are both on Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list and have enjoyed excellent debut efforts. Battenfield impressed with strong Triple-A numbers to earn a look in the big league rotation, and while his results have been mixed, he’ll get a longer look to sort things out.
It’s at least possible that Plesac’s stint in the minors alters his trajectory to free agency, though it’d need to be a lengthy stay in Triple-A for that to happen. The right-hander entered the 2023 season with three years, 86 days of Major League service time, meaning he needed another 86 days to reach four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market following the 2025 campaign. He’s already picked up 35 of those 86 days, so as long as he returns for at least 51 days, he’ll hit the four-year mark. If Plesac is relegated to Triple-A work for longer than that, it might be a moot point anyhow, as if he can’t pitch his way back into the big league mix he’d become a non-tender candidate this winter.
