The trade deadline is still over three weeks away but Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is already drawing interest, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
It’s hardly surprising to see Bieber garnering attention around the league given his situation. He’s established himself as a quality big leaguer, having tossed over 800 innings to this point with a 3.24 ERA. He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2020 when he posted a 1.63 ERA in 12 starts.
Beyond his performance, there are other factors that would lead clubs to pick up the phone and call Cleveland. The Guardians have long had a reputation of trading away their players as they get closer to free agency, with their salary increasing and their club control waning. Recent years have seen them ship out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger under such circumstances. Bieber is making just over $10MM this year and can qualify for one more arbitration raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2024.
The Guards are below .500 with a record of 43-44, but no club is running away with the American League Central division. The Guardians are just a game and a half back of the Twins, who sit atop the group with a 45-43 record. The Guardians are still very much in contention there, though that doesn’t necessarily mean Bieber would be off the table. There are few clear sellers this year and it’s been speculated that there may end up being more trades between contenders, with each trading from an area of surplus to address an area of need.
Despite Zach Plesac being outrighted off the roster and injuries putting each of Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Daniel Espino out of action, the Guardians still have a strong rotation. In addition to Bieber, they have Aaron Civale, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Rookie Logan Allen was optioned to the minors when Quantrill came off the injured list but could potentially be recalled after the break now that Quantrill has landed on the IL again. All the aforementioned factors led to Bieber being placed in the #8 spot on MLBTR’s recent list of top deadline trade candidates.
That’s no guarantee Bieber will be moved, as the Guardians could opt to keep him for the stretch run and even for 2024, though they will surely listen to any other club that calls up and expresses interest. It will be fascinating to see exactly how strong that interest is, as Bieber seems to have taken a step back from his dominant performance in previous seasons.
The righty struck out 30.2% of hitters in 2019 and that figured jumped to 41.1% in the shorter sample of the 2020 season. It naturally dropped to 33.1% the year after but has continued sliding, getting to 25% last year and just 19.3% here in 2023. He’s still avoiding walks, getting grounders and generally keeping runs off the board, as shown by his 3.66 ERA this year. However, his 4.13 FIP and 4.44 SIERA suggest he might be lucky to be there, with a .280 batting average on balls in play perhaps helping him out. His velocity is also down, with his fastball averaging 91.3 mph this year compared to the 93-94 range he was at a few years ago.
That puts the Guardians in an tricky spot. If they have designs on trading Bieber like they have done with other players in the past, his value won’t get any higher. They could always delay a trade until the offseason, but they would then be marketing Bieber for just one playoff push instead of the two they can offer now. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury putting a dent in a pitcher’s value at any point.
But while pulling the trigger now may be the best time to do so in terms of cold-hearted asset management, it would hurt their chances of taking advantage of a weak division here in 2023. The White Sox are disappointing this year but could always reload and have better results next year. The Tigers are showing some signs of life and could be stronger next season as well. Perhaps the decision makers in Cleveland would prefer to try to take advantage of the door that is open in front of them right now.
There will be much to think about in the next few weeks, with the decision undoubtedly to be impacted by the results of the club, the performance of Bieber and the nature of the offers they receive. The trade deadline this year is on August 1.