As it turned out, those players signed contracts that hewed fairly closely to MLBTR’s predicted ranges. But the market, as always, had a few surprises for our in-house brain trust. In particular, Springer and LeMahieu came away with a fair bit more money than we had anticipated.

Trevor Bauer to Dodgers for three years, $102MM (with two opt-outs): If you’re of the opinion that Bauer is an ace-level hurler, then this deal represents a steal. The Dodgers are paying a premium rate, sure, but without any of the long-term entanglements. Then again, it’s only fair to note that Bauer has completed just one full season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

J.T. Realmuto to Phillies for five years, $115.5MM: This is a lot of coin for a free-agent catcher, but Realmuto is arguably the game’s best all-around backstop and the Phils got an up-close look at him before committing. If you value the hard-to-quantify contributions of a top-shelf catcher, this could be viewed as a bargain. On the other hand, Realmuto will turn thirty before the deal begins and the rigors of the position represent an ever-present concern.

George Springer to Blue Jays for six years, $150MM: Speaking of age, that’s the one real demerit in the situation of Springer, who’ll turn 32 at the tail end of the 2021 campaign. He’s a well-rounded masher who adds value with a versatile glove. If he can turn in a few more premium seasons and then settle in as a high-quality regular at the tail end of his career, Springer could easily reward the Jays for this contract.

Marcell Ozuna to Braves for four years, $65MM: Ozuna is significantly younger than Springer and easily bettered him at the plate in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But Ozuna’s stretches of bliss have surrounded other spans of merely above-average play, and his glove is not as renowned as his bat. While there’s obviously some cause to temper expectations, there’s a realistic scenario where the Atlanta organization achieves huge value in this deal.

DJ LeMahieu to Yankees for six years, $90MM: The idea of a 32-year-old LeMahieu signing a contract like this … well, it still feels a bit preposterous to hot stove watchers of a certain age. But you can threw out what you thought you knew about the guy with the Rockies. He has been on a tear ever since he donned pinstripes. Throw in a quality glove and gravitas, and you’ve got a great finishing piece for any team with championship ambitions. The sixth year feels like a stretch, but it’s important to remember that it was designed to tamp down the annual luxury tax hit for the Bronx Bombers.

So, which of these contracts do you believe was the shrewdest investment from the team perspective? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)

• Athletics catcher Sean Murphy is firmly on the mend after an offseason medical scare, Matt Kawahara writes for the San Francisco Chronicle. He discussed his recovery from a collapsed lung, noting that it was quite a bit more terrifying before medical professionals informed him that he could anticipate a relatively swift recovery. Murphy underwent an additional procedure to protect against a recurrence. Though he’s delayed to open spring camp, the top Oakland backstop says he’s “really optimistic” of being fully ramped up in time to get behind the dish on Opening Day. Murphy, 26, will look to establish himself as a first-tier MLB performer after mashing out a .237/.355/.491 slash through his first 200 plate appearances.
• Angels hurler/slugger Shohei Ohtani is under the microscope as he looks to get his pitching career back on track. As Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter, Ohtani appears to be in a good place from a velocity perspective. The righty says he’s working comfortably in the mid-nineties in bullpen sessions and has touched 97 mph. When last we saw Ohtani in top form, during his brief but scintillating 2018 debut, he was averaging nearly 97 mph with his heater. The hopefully resurgent two-way player is also now toying with a changeup as he fine-tunes his arsenal.
• Dodgers superstar Cody Bellinger seems to be making a strong bounce back from offseason shoulder surgery, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes. Bellinger, who memorably dislocated the joint in an over-exuberant NLCS home run celebration, says he’s “way ahead” of the anticipated schedule for his recovery. Given his progress to this point, the 2019 MVP says he’s “100 percent” sure he’ll be ready to roll on Opening Day. That’s obviously quite welcome news for the Los Angeles powerhouse. While the Dodgers are perhaps baseball’s deepest team, there’s no replacing a player of Bellinger’s ability. And the club is facing its sternest intra-division test in some time in the form of a talent-laden Padres outfit.

FEB 17: The Padres have agreed to a historic 14-year deal with superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). It is worth a guaranteed $340MM, Robert Murray of Fansided adds on Twitter. The deal provides Tatis with full no-trade rights, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. There’s a $10MM signing bonus.

While the deal covers a staggering number of years, it’ll only take Tatis through his age-35 season. The young superstar only just celebrated his 22nd birthday.

This pact sets a record for pre-arbitration deals by a rather healthy margin. The great Mike Trout had held the record with a $144.5MM deal. In Trout’s case, of course, the contract covered only six seasons — until it was further extended a few years later. Tatis’s guarantee falls just shy of the $360MM of additional money Trout received in the second agreement. It’s such a monster deal, in fact, that it slots in as the third-largest of any kind in baseball history.

[The 20 Largest Contracts In MLB History]

While this deal won’t change the complexion of an increasingly loaded 2021 Friars roster, it makes for a bold statement of intent by the San Diego organization. The club could’ve sat back and enjoyed Tatis while waiting to see how its roster situation evolved. Instead, the Pads have effectively declared him the franchise cornerstone for the foreseeable future.

Tatis would have reached arbitration eligibility after the 2022 season, so he was still a full campaign away from securing serious earnings. The MVP Sports client had been slated to reach free agency after the 2024 season, at which time he’d have been marketing his age-26 and beyond years.

This deal represents the culmination of a fascinating series of developments involving Tatis. At the time the Padres acquired him — in what turned out to be an all-time heist of a deal — Tatis was noteworthy mostly because of his namesake father, former big leaguer Fernando Tatis. The younger Tatis quickly blossomed into one of the game’s most-hyped prospects, though some worried about his strikeout rate and ability to stick at shortstop.

[How Did The White Sox Trade Fernando Tatis Jr.?!]

At this point in the spring of 2019, the Padres appeared set to keep up a steady building process, with Tatis opening at the Triple-A level and trying to earn his way into the majors by mid-season. Instead, the club inked Manny Machado to a $300MM pact, then went on to promote Tatis to the MLB roster to open the season. That decision seemed to some a foolhardy gambit, as even a brief delay would’ve allowed the Friars to delay Tatis’s free agency by a full season.

Now that Tatis has joined Machado to form the most expensive left side of an infield in baseball history, it’s fair to wonder if the daring promotion helped set the stage. While Tatis’s agents gained added leverage in negotiations, the good will surely helped the small-market Pads convince Tatis to commit to the organization instead of holding out for a potential bonanza in free agency.

Though Tatis has logged just 143 MLB games to this point — the product of an injury and global pandemic — he has done nothing but impress. Through 629 plate appearances, he has produced at a healthy .301/.374/.582 clip (good for a 150 wRC+) with 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He not only improved his plate discipline but generated much greater defensive value in his sophomore season.

Padres GM A.J. Preller had already given fans of the organization ample reason for excitement — even if it’ll still take a herculean effort to take down the perennial favorite Dodgers. Now, the Friar faithful will have the chance not only to watch one of the game’s most entertaining players, but to do so knowing there’s a real chance he’ll be a lifetime franchise icon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Jays’ first homestand is a six-game set hosting the Angels and the Yankees from April 8-14. They’ll next host the Nationals and Braves from April 27-May 2 before heading out on a 10-game road trip.

The earliest target date for a return to the Rogers Centre, then, appears to be May 14, when they host the Phillies at the outset of a 10-game homestand. It’s no guarantee those games will take place in Toronto, of course; the Jays will reevaluate the situation with input from medical experts and governmental bodies before further charting their course.

Feb. 17: The Blue Jays will again play their home games south of the border, according to a report from Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. At least to open the 2021 regular season, the Toronto denizens will make a temporary abode in Dunedin, Florida.

As was the case in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, cross-border traffic simply proved too difficult to manage. The plan in this case is to host home games in Florida until at least the middle of May.

Dunedin is certainly familiar, as it houses the team’s Spring Training complex. The club had toyed with the idea of playing there last year but ultimately settled on the Buffalo, New York home of its top minor-league affiliate.

The change in venue isn’t likely to have a major impact on the Blue Jays’ hopes for contention in 2021. Playing in Buffalo suited the Jays just fine last year, as they performed well at home (17-9) and earned a postseason berth.

Benintendi is under team control through the 2022 season. He’ll earn $6.6MM for the upcoming campaign under a two-year arbitration agreement he made previously with the Sox. The Sox will pick up $2.8MM of the tab on Benintendi’s 2021 salary.

There’s no doubting Benintendi’s talent. He has largely produced above-average offensive numbers while delivering well-rated, versatile glovework across the outfield. Benintendi shone in particular in 2018, when he ran a .290/.366/.465 slash line with 16 home runs and 21 stolen bases over 661 plate appearances.

Unfortunately, Benintendi’s output has drooped a bit since that time. He was merely an average offensive performer in 2019, though his batted-ball figures (.330 wOBA vs. .348 xwOBA) suggested some poor fortune. And he struggled mightily in brief action last year, with a forgettable 14-game effort halted by what turned out to be a season-ending rib injury.

The Royals obviously believe a well-rested Benintendi can return to form. To reach his previous levels, the former sixth-overall pick will both need to rediscover his acumen at the plate and rebound from a multi-year decline in foot speed.

For the rights to Benintendi, the Royals will part with a package of potentially interesting but unestablished players. Cordero is 26 years of age, like Benintendi, but has only taken 315 MLB plate appearances over the past four seasons. Despite immense potential, he has been thwarted to this point by injuries and has yet to fully test himself at the game’s highest level.

The Sox will give Cordero a chance to find his footing in the bigs, though even if he’s successful he’ll only come with one more season of control than Benintendi. They’ll otherwise look solely to the future in this deal. Winckowski, whom the Mets acquired earlier in the offseason, has yet to crack the upper minors. He’s considered a potential back-of-the-rotation arm. It remains to be seen what names will be available in the PTBNL selection pool, but the Red Sox will have three chances to choose far-away young talent after getting a fresh look over the coming months.

For the Mets, it’s rather a straightforward situation. The club obviously preferred the future of Lee to that of Winckowski (and whatever PTBNL ends up moving in the deal). In addition to filling a void in the team’s prospect pool, Lee has some serious potential upside. He’s a certified burner, having swiped 53 bags at Double-A in 2019, but still has some developing to do as a hitter.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter) first reported a deal was in the works. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted an agreement was in place. Further details were reported by Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link), Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter), Heyman (Twitter link), Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (in a tweet), MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (on Twitter), Chad Jennings of The Athletic (in a tweet), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR had projected Buehler to earn in the $2.3MM to $3.1MM range for the 2021 campaign. The contract provides a $2.75MM salary along with a $3.25MM rate of pay for 2022. That latter number is obviously light, which is why Buehler will also enjoy a $2MM signing bonus.

The Dodgers gain cost certainty and avoid a hearing with a critical young player. In exchange for sacrificing some contractual upside, Buehler will lock in some serious career earnings and gain some long-term protection from injury.

Buehler will also retain a chance to boost his earnings through escalator provisions. Per Rosenthal, the deal calls for Buehler to earn an additional $500K upon reaching each of six games started thresholds (14, 16, 18, 20, 24, 28). Cy Young voting outcomes can also bump the payday: $1.125MM for a win or $625K for a top-three finish.

The 26-year-old Buehler reached arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player. He’ll have two more arb-eligible campaigns to go after this deal runs out. The sky is the limit on his earning power for those seasons and beyond. Through 365 2/3 career innings to date, Buehler owns a 3.15 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate.

Sanchez, 24, becomes the second player to lose a Mets 40-man spot this evening. He reached the majors briefly in 2020, getting enough time to record his first hit but little more. Sanchez earned that opportunity primarily with his glovework, as he carries a marginal .259/.317/.331 batting line over his minor-league career.

Payamps has never appeared with the Boston organization, which claimed him earlier in the offseason only to designate him for assignment when a roster need arose. The 26-year-old first reached the upper minors in 2017 but has only received limited MLB chances to this point. It’s certainly possible he’ll end up on the DFA carousel as teams compete to see who’ll be able to slip him through waivers in hopes of stashing him for depth.

Oswalt, 27, has received several MLB opportunities over the past three seasons. All told, he carries a 6.19 ERA with a 16.4% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 41.3% groundball rate through 84 1/3 innings of action.

None of those stats jump off the page. Likewise, Oswalt doesn’t throw particularly hard and didn’t produce gaudy peripherals in the minors. That said, he has produced full-season, sub-3.00 ERA efforts at the Double-A and Triple-A levels and could hold appeal elsewhere as a depth arm.

Phegley, who’ll celebrate his 33rd birthday later this month, opened and closed his career in Chicago but spent most of his time with the Athletics. He finishes with 1,203 plate appearances of .225/.268/.381 hitting and 35 home runs.

A first-round draft pick out of Indiana, Phegley debuted with the White Sox in 2013. He had yet to fully establish himself in the majors when he was shipped to Oakland as part of a memorable swap.

Phegley launched his career with the A’s with a strong showing in 2015, when he slashed .249/.300/.449 in 73 games of action. Unfortunately, that proved to be a high-water mark. Phegley served as a reserve until 2019, when he appeared in a personal-high 106 contests and posted a .239/.282/.411 batting line with a career-best dozen long balls.

In his first trip onto the open market, Phegley settled for a minor-league deal with the Cubs. He cracked the Opening Day roster but only saw limited action. Phegley will bow out of the game now rather than battling for another opportunity. MLBTR wishes him the best in his future endeavors.

Hill is closing in on his 41st birthday, but still spun 38 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA ball last year over eight starts with the Twins. There’s little question he’s deserving of an important role on a big league pitching staff, even if it’s unreasonable to expect he’ll turn in a full starter’s workload over the entirety of a 162-game season.

While the results were excellent, Hill did show some worrying signs in Minnesota (with the obligatory short-sample alert). He managed only a 31:17 K/BB ratio, far off of the sparkling strikeout and walk numbers he had routinely sported in prior years with the Dodgers. Hill also shed a few ticks off his fastball — not that he has ever been reliant upon overwhelming velocity.

It’s not surprising to see the Rays and Brewers in the hunt for Hill. Both teams have moved away from traditional pitcher usage patterns in recent seasons and would have little trouble scheming up ways to maximize Hill’s unique capabilities. The Mets do not fit in quite the same manner, but could plug the ageless southpaw into the back of their rotation mix and plan to get him regular respite from the typical five-day pitching schedule.

One team is notably absent from the set of reported pursuers: the Red Sox. Bradford notes that the Boston organization has seemingly backed away from its initial interest after making other additions. That’s likely a bit of a disappointment for Hill, who resides in Massachusetts and has made clear that geographical location is one of his chief concerns (along with the ability to compete for a title). For what it’s worth, the Mets are obviously nearby and the Rays play frequently in the northeast.

Littell, 25, has thrown 63 2/3 total innings over the past three seasons, recording a cumulative 4.52 ERA. He has a pedestrian 49:23 K/BB ratio in that span.

It’ll be interesting to see if Littell can regain his footing with a new organization. He produced quite promising results in 2019, but lost his roster spot with the Twins last year after five of the 31 batters he faced went deep.

It seems Bradley and agent Scott Boras are hoping to leverage strong demand into a much longer deal than might have been anticipated. Bradley is “seeking a significant contract, perhaps beyond four years,” sources tell Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Reaching a contract of that duration would be quite the achievement, particularly in this market. Bradley is a quality performer who’d fit quite a few rosters, but there was little reason entering the winter to think he’d have a shot at a deal past two or three guaranteed seasons. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM pact.

To be fair, Bradley is the type of player who seems likely to remain useful for a lengthy stretch. He’s a glove-first, left-handed-hitting outfielder who’ll likely have a late-career role as a fourth outfielder even once he’s deemed incapable of handling everyday duties in center.

That said, we’re talking about a soon-to-be-31-year-old player with a lifetime .239/.321/.412 batting line. Bradley is a very good defender and baserunner but mostly profiled as a solid regular rather than a star with the Red Sox. He was at his best in an injury-shortened 2020, though it’s hard to believe teams will put too much weight on his BABIP-boosted 120 wRC+ after three-straight campaigns of below-average output with the bat.

Whether there’s any realistic hope of a four — (or more?) — year pact isn’t yet clear. Perhaps it’s plausible if Bradley is willing to take a lesser average annual value. If nothing else, the fact that Boras is evidently tossing around such figures just weeks before Spring Training would seem to speak to the level of market interest in Bradley.

As Spring Training closes in, the fates of all three players remain unknown. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates the market situation of these St. Louis stalwarts.

Wainwright is unsurprisingly drawing a good amount of interest, it seems. Goold says that the veteran righty is sitting on multiple offers, including one from the upstart Padres. Details remain unknown — including how the San Diego team would propose to fit him in a loaded rotation mix. Neither is it clear how strongly Wainwright is considering alternative destinations at this point.

The Cards are still pursuing both Wainwright and Molina, per Goold, having extended “updated offers” to each player. There’s no further word as to whether the longtime teammates are coordinating in a bid to land in the same place, as they’ve discussed previously.

It’s quite a different situation with respect to Wong, who enjoyed a quality run with the Cardinals but doesn’t have quite the organizational standing of the aforementioned legends. The second bagger has reportedly had contact with his former employer, but it’s far from clear that they’re headed for a reunion. Goold writes that the club has “not actively pursued” a new deal with Wong.

The Cards remain in a somewhat odd situation on the heels of a good-but-not-great season. The org hasn’t had a losing season since 2007, has quite a bit of talent on hand, and has a tantalizing opportunity to capitalize on an NL Central division that may be the game’s weakest. At the moment, though, the club is taking an outwardly passive approach to the offseason.

The above-linked article contains further exploration of the situations. It also features updates on the winter ball action of Molina and key righty Carlos Martinez.

The report doesn’t formally stamp out the possibility of a deal with Bauer, but it comes just shy of doing so. Torres pegs the odds of the sides lining up at “practically zero.”

This development makes for a bit of a surprise given the Halos’ need for a top starter and Bauer’s ties to Southern California. One might’ve expected some effort to land the high-grade hurler, at least to a certain point in the bidding.

Interestingly, it doesn’t appear to be a situation where the market has simply moved past the team’s valuation of the player. Money is a factor, to be sure. Torres indicates that the Halos’ budget likely doesn’t have anywhere near the space needed to fit Bauer — at least, barring the authorization of a pocketbook expansion by owner Arte Moreno.

Cash is generally king, but it may not be the dispositive factor here. Torres cites the presence of Mickey Callaway as a major roadblock. Callaway’s relationship with Bauer is, she writes, “believed to be eroded beyond repair” from the grating time the pair spent with the Indians organization.

If indeed Callaway and Bauer are oil and water, the Angels may not be a fit at any (realistic) price. That could leave the Mets in the driver’s seat, though other clubs have been connected to Bauer and there’s still time for some dark horses to emerge.