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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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For the first time since 1988, the Dodgers are World Series champions. Regardless of what they do this offseason, they’ll enter 2021 as favorites to win it all again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club make significant moves in order to bolster its chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

There is very little to dislike about this Dodgers roster, though the team is facing some notable losses in free agency. It starts with third baseman Justin Turner, who has been an unexpected gem for the team since it signed him to a minor league contract before the 2014 campaign. The bearded Turner has since emerged as one of the faces of the Dodgers and one of their most productive players, but considering he’s 36 years old and there may not be a universal designated hitter in 2021, it’s possible the Dodgers will move on in the coming months.

If the Dodgers do let Turner walk, there are a few alternate routes they could take at the hot corner. Los Angeles could stay within and hand the position to Edwin Rios, who saw quite a bit of time at third in 2020, or shift shortstop Corey Seager there. Otherwise, Kris Bryant (Cubs), Nolan Arenado (Rockies) or even free-agent infielder DJ LeMahieu could end up as targets. An Arenado acquisition seems especially unlikely, though, in part because the Rockies and Dodgers are division rivals. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently reported there are “monumental” roadblocks standing in the way of a potential Arenado-Dodgers union.

Of course, one can’t rule out another major trade that would deliver a franchise shortstop to the Dodgers. They’re certainly in good hands at the position with Seager, but if they want to shift him to third, trading for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor would make sense. Lindor seems like a surefire bet to go in a trade this offseason because he’s projected to make anywhere from $17.5MM to $21MM in arbitration next year, and the Indians are a frugal franchise. The Dodgers have more than enough young talent to put together a package for Lindor, and as such a wealthy franchise, the four-time All-Star’s salary would not stand in their way. So, in short, the Dodgers are as logical a Lindor suitor as anyone.

Moving to the outfield, the Dodgers may wave goodbye to Joc Pederson, who has been part of the organization since it selected him in the 11th round in 2010. Pederson debuted in 2014 and has since delivered above-average offensive production, though the left-handed swinger has struggled versus same-handed pitchers. That doesn’t mean the Dodgers won’t bring Pederson back, but it doesn’t seem all that likely when considering the talent the team has in its outfield. Right fielder Mookie Betts obviously isn’t going anywhere. Cody Bellinger played the majority of the year in center, and he’s obviously there to stay. Pederson played 20 of 60 games in left, but that total fell short of AJ Pollock’s 22. The Dodgers also have Chris Taylor in the fold as someone who can play multiple outfield positions.

On the pitching side, the Dodgers are rife with quality arms, though they are dealing with some upheaval in their bullpen. The club made a notable trade last week when it acquired onetime All-Star closer Corey Knebel from the Brewers. Knebel was terrible over a small sample of work last season, but it doesn’t seem fair to write him off over what was his first action since undergoing March 2019 Tommy John surgery. As recently as 2018, Knebel was a terrific reliever; if healthy, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least re-emerge as a useful part of the Dodgers’ bullpen (especially considering their track record of getting the most out of veterans).

An effective Knebel would help the Dodgers replace Blake Treinen, Jake McGee and Pedro Baez, who are each free agents. Treinen was solid for the Dodgers after signing for $10MM last winter; McGee was even better on a per-inning basis after inking a low-risk deal in July; and Baez once again prevented numbers at a respectable clip. So how do the Dodgers replace those three? Well, they could re-sign any of them, but they’re otherwise looking at a free-agent market with a slew of familiar veteran relievers. And you can’t necessarily rule out another trade with the Brewers, who don’t seem to be closing the door on letting go of lights-out lefty Josh Hader. As with Lindor, the Dodgers have the talent to put together a deal for Hader.

The way the Dodgers assemble their bullpen will affect how they construct their starting staff (and vice versa). Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler have their spots locked down, and the same is probably true for David Price (if he returns next year after opting out in 2020). Beyond that group, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May – who combined for 28 starts last season – remain clear candidates for rotation spots. All three look more than qualified, but if the Dodgers would rather make a sizable splash (whether that means for another starter or a position player), at least one of them could fall out of contention or even be dealt elsewhere. The team has the money to sign the No. 1 free agent available, NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, and it’s worth noting president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was at the helm of Tampa Bay’s front office when the Rays drafted 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell in 2011. Snell could now be a trade candidate for the Rays, so it’s hard not to connect him to the Dodgers partly because of the Friedman connection. Barring the acquisition of a front-line starter, though, the Dodgers don’t look as if they really have to do much in their rotation. It’s a good-looking group as it is.

However this offseason goes, the Dodgers will enter 2021 as a well-oiled machine that should once again push for a World Series championship. But considering their financial prowess, their array of talent and many other teams hesitant to spend because of the COVID-19 pandemic, this winter could give the Dodgers a chance to become even better. That’s a scary thought for the rest of Major League Baseball.

Reds Sign Dwight Smith Jr. To Minors Deal

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8:01pm: It’s a minor league deal with an invitation to MLB spring training, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets.

5:53pm: Outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. announced Monday on Twitter that he has signed with the Reds (h/t: Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com). It’s presumably a minor league contract for Smith, whom the Orioles outrighted in late August.

Smith, now 28, became a professional when the Blue Jays chose him 53rd overall in the 2011 draft. He went on to post impressive numbers with the Blue Jays from 2017-18, but that came in a small sample of plate appearances. The Blue Jays then traded Smith to the division-rival Orioles for international pool money prior to the 2019 campaign.

Rebuilding Baltimore gave Smith a chance to establish himself as a regular in his first year with the organization, and while he did hit 13 home runs and steal five bases, he could only muster a .241/.297/.412 line across 392 plate appearances. Smith followed up with a .222/.306/.365 mark with a pair of homers in 72 trips to the plate in 2020.

Now that he’s a member of the Cincy organization, Smith will join a team with a crowded outfield. Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Shogo Akiyama, Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino are among those in the mix for the Reds.

Pitching Notes: S. Gray, T. Williams, Urena, Phils, Jays, Matz

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“Several teams” have interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That isn’t at all surprising in the wake of the late-November news that the Reds will at least listen to offers for Gray. General manager Nick Krall suggested later that he isn’t in a hurry to trade Gray away, but it does seem the Reds are in payroll-cutting mode, evidenced by Monday’s trade that sent reliever Raisel Iglesias to the Angels. Gray only has a guaranteed $20MM left on his contract over the next two years, but his performance in 2020 should help make it easier for the Reds to garner a major return in a deal if they do decide to move him. The 31-year-old ended the season with 56 innings of 3.70 ERA/3.05 FIP ball, 11.57 K/9 against 4.18 BB/9, and a 51.1 percent groundball rate.

More on a handful of other pitchers…

  • There are “more than” six teams interested in free-agent righties Trevor Williams and Jose Urena, per Heyman. Both players were cut loose by their former teams last week, but they’ve had success in the past and could be interesting buy-low hurlers in free agency. Williams, 28, struggled mightily in the previous two years but gave the Pirates 321 innings of 3.56 ERA/3.94 FIP pitching from 2017-18. It has been a similar story for the 29-year-old Urena, whom offenses victimized from 2019-20. In the prior two years, though, the ex-Marlin registered a 3.90 ERA/4.68 FIP over 343 2/3 frames.
  • The pitching-needy Phillies “never engaged” righty Charlie Morton, lefty Drew Smyly or reliever Trevor May before they signed free-agent contracts with other teams, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Two of those players – Morton and Smyly – previously played for the Phillies. They could have improved the Phillies’ rotation, while May might have been an asset to a bullpen that is in desperate need of help. Each player landed an eight-figure deal, though, and the Phillies don’t seem eager to hand out large paydays to anyone this offseason.
  • Before the Mets avoided arbitration with Steven Matz on a $5.2MM agreement, they reached out to the Blue Jays to gauge their interest in the southpaw, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. No trade came together, of course. Toronto would have been hard pressed to consider Matz an upgrade for its rotation after he recorded a horrific 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP in 30 2/3 innings last season.

Phillies Claim Ian Hamilton From Mariners

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The Phillies have claimed right-hander Ian Hamilton off waivers from the Mariners, per an announcement from Seattle.

This is the second time since September that a team has claimed Hamilton, as the Mariners did so when they got him from the White Sox. Chicago used an 11th-round pick on Hamilton in 2016 and then saw him turn into a decent prospect in its farm system, but the hard thrower hasn’t seen much action in the majors to this point.

Set to turn 26 years old next June, Hamilton has thrown 12 innings of seven-run (six earned) ball with 10 hits allowed and a 9:7 K:BB ratio. He owns a 4.85 ERA with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (10.1 K/9, 1.85 BB/9) across 42 2/3 innings in Triple-A ball.

Gio Urshela Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Yankees third baseman Gio Urshela underwent surgery Friday to remove a bone chip from his right elbow, the team announced. He’ll need three months to recover.

Based on the estimated timeline of his recovery, Urshela should be in line to return by the start of next season. If not, the Yankees could hand third base to Miguel Andujar, who was their solution at the hot corner in 2018 before injuries cut him dow the next year. He didn’t play much at all last season, totaling 65 plate appearances in Urshela’s shadow. Andujar has hit a weak .193/.219/.257 with one home run in 105 plate appearances dating back to 2019.

Andujar once looked like the Yankees’ long-term option at third, but his health troubles opened the door for Urshela, a former Indian and Blue Jay who has unexpectedly thrived since New York acquired him from Toronto in August 2018. Going back to 2019, Urshela has slashed .310/.358/.523 (132 wRC+) with 27 homers in 650 trips to the plate.

Twins Interested In Joakim Soria

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The Twins are interested in free-agent reliever Joakim Soria, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets.

The well-traveled, right-handed Soria spent the previous two seasons with the Athletics, with whom he was quite successful. Now 36 years of age, the former standout Royals closer has put up a 3.01 ERA/3.06 FIP with 9.81 K/9 against 2.72 BB/9 in 725 2/3 innings in the majors. He’s one of many accomplished relievers currently on the open market.

The Twins’ bullpen was really good in 2020, finishing third in K/BB ratio, fifth in FIP and sixth in ERA. The unit has since lost Trevor May to the Mets, though, and Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard are currently on the free-agent market. With so much turnover occurring, it’s no surprise the Twins are looking to bolster their bullpen this offseason. They’re casting “a wide net” in their search for bullpen aid, Wolfson writes.

Phillies Sign Ronald Torreyes To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with infielder Ronald Torreyes, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

A former Dodger, Yankee and Twin, Torreyes signed a minors pact with the Phillies last offseason. He only totaled seven plate appearances with the team last season, though.

If Torreyes does make the Phillies’ roster at any point next year, it will be his fourth season under manager Joe Girardi, who previously led the Yankees. The 28-year-old Torreyes hasn’t had much major league success of late, but he was a useful bench piece for the Yankees from 2016-18. Torreyes posted a .281/.308/.374 line across 606 plate appearances in New York.

Pirates Sign Clay Holmes To Minor League Contract

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The Pirates non-tendered right-hander Clay Holmes on Wednesday, but he’s making a quick return to the organization. The club has signed Holmes to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league camp, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets.

Holmes will now stay with the only organization he has been a part of since coming off the board in the ninth round of the 2011 draft. The 27-year-old saw action with the Pirates in each of the previous three seasons, though he has had trouble keeping offenses at bay, thanks in part to control problems. In 47 appearances and four starts, Holmes has posted a 5.91 ERA/5.06 FIP with 9.04 K/9 against 6.84 BB/9 across 77 2/3 innings.

This past season was a wash for Holmes because of a forearm strain, as he made just one appearance (on July 24) before landing on the injured list. He’ll now try to work his way back to Pittsburgh on a non-guaranteed deal.

Rangers Hire Chris Young As General Manager

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The Rangers have hired Chris Young as their new general manager, Ken Rosenthal and Levi Weaver of The Athletic report. Jon Daniels will stay on as the team’s president of baseball operations.

This is out-of-nowhere news, as there was no indication Daniels would step aside as the Rangers’ GM this offseason. It’s a role Daniels has held since 2005. While Daniels is now 43, he became the youngest GM in league history when he got the job at the age of 28. The Rangers have since earned five playoff berths and won two American League pennants, though they have fallen on hard times in recent years. The team hasn’t finished above .500 since 2016, and it will reduce payroll heading into 2021, making an immediate return to contention even more difficult.

The Rangers are hoping the addition of Young to their front office will make it easier to return to relevance sometime soon. The 41-year-old is a former major league right-hander and a Princeton alumnus who began his career with the Rangers from 2004-05 before Daniels traded him to the Padres. Since he hung up his spikes in 2017, Young has been working in the MLB office, first as the league’s vice president of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy. He took on an even bigger role this year after chief baseball officer Joe Torre moved into an advisory position.

Young recently interviewed for the Mets’ GM job, but he dropped out of the running because he did not want to relocate his family. The Dallas resident will now get an opportunity to help lead a local franchise.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/3/20

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Rays have signed righty David Hess to a minors deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The Orioles, who chose Hess in the fifth round of the 2014 draft, outrighted him in October. He debuted in the majors in 2018 and has since recorded a 5.86 ERA/6.41 FIP with 6.76 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9 in 190 1/3 innings.

Earlier transactions:

  • The Rockies announced that they have acquired left-hander Yoan Aybar from the Red Sox for infielder Christian Koss. Aybar, now 23, didn’t produce much as an outfielder through 2017, which led the Red Sox to move him to the mound. With a fastball that can reach triple digits, Aybar pitched to a 4.61 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings between the Single-A and High-A levels in 2019. Koss, who will turn 23 in January, was a 12th-round pick of the Rockies in 2019 who hasn’t gotten past rookie ball. He did perform very well there during his first pro season, though, as he slashed .332/.447/.605 with 11 home runs in 238 plate appearances.
  • The Brewers tweeted that they’ve signed third baseman Zach Green to a minor league contract with an invitation to big league camp. The 26-year-old was a third-round pick of the Phillies in 2012 who spent the previous two seasons in the Giants organization. Green made his MLB debut in 2020 and totaled 16 plate appearances, though he picked up just two hits. However, Green isn’t far removed from an excellent 2019 showing in Triple-A, where he slashed .282/.380/.659 with 25 home runs in 297 plate appearances.
  • Right-hander Zach Thompson announced on Twitter that he has signed with the Marlins. It’s presumably a minors deal for Thompson, who had been with the White Sox since they selected him in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. The 27-year-old topped out in Triple-A ball in 2019 with 70 1/3 innings of 5.50 ERA ball. While Thompson had difficulty preventing runs then, he did post impressive strikeout and walk numbers (10.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9).
  • The Pirates outrighted first baseman/outfielder Will Craig to Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets. Craig joined the Pirates as a first-rounder in 2016, but his major league impact has been minimal to this point. He collected four plate appearances in his Pittsburgh debut last season, but he went hitless in that short span and the Pirates designated him for assignment last week. In his most recent minor league action, in 2019, the 26-year-old batted .249/.326/.435 with 23 homers across 556 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

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