Four players who might have been considered for qualifying offers were traded in July: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Starling Marte.  Those players are now ineligible for qualifying offers.  Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and AJ Pollock are among those who are ineligible on account of having received one previously.  The Rockies inexplicably retained Trevor Story at the trade deadline, so he will be subject to a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, these power rankings are based on my projection of the players’ earning power.  Keep in mind that the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, though that doesn’t necessarily mean free agency will be frozen.

1.  Carlos Correa.  Prior to this year, Correa had played 110+ games in a season with a 120 wRC+ exactly once, back in 2016.  This year, Correa has avoided the regular injured list and is fourth among qualified shortstops with a 136 wRC+.  Correa did go on the COVID-19 IL in July, but he missed only a week.

Just 27 years old in December, Correa also has youth on his side, and appears headed toward a monster free agent contract.  The $340MM deals of fellow shortstops Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor will surely be a target.

2.  Corey Seager.  After getting hit by a pitch and suffering a broken right hand in mid-May, Seager missed two and a half months.  Upon his return July 30th, the Dodgers had acquired another of the game’s top shortstops in Trea Turner.  Turner has switched to second base as a member of the Dodgers, but serves as a strong option at shortstop for 2022 for L.A.  Seager didn’t have much to say on the topic, but clearly his negotiating leverage took a hit with the Turner acquisition.

As for what Seager can control, he’s shown no ill effects from the broken hand.  He’s got a stellar 134 wRC+ in 87 plate appearances since returning from the injury.  Seager is only about five months older than Correa, so he too will be seeking a very long contract in excess of $300MM.

3. Kris Bryant.  19 games into his Giants career, Bryant’s solid season has continued.  The Giants have enjoyed his versatility, playing Bryant at third base as well as all three outfield positions.  He’s saying all the right things about the possibility of staying in San Francisco long-term, telling Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, “It’s definitely enticing.”  Even with a new deal for Brandon Crawford, the Giants have less than $36MM on the books for 2022, so they could certainly afford Bryant.

4. Trevor Story.  Though Story expressed confusion at the Rockies’ decision not to trade him, he hasn’t let it affect him on the field.  Since the trade deadline, Story sports a 147 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances.  29 in November, Story isn’t quite as young as Correa and Seager, but he’s still in good shape for a contract well beyond $100MM.  There’s still a case to be made for Story above Bryant, and the Rockies’ shortstop has outplayed Bryant since June.

5. Freddie Freeman.  Freeman has turned it on since June, posting a 151 wRC+ in 324 plate appearances.  32 in September, Freeman remains one of the best hitters in baseball.  The Braves wisely held onto the 2020 NL MVP despite a 12% chance at the playoffs at the trade deadline, and now the club has a 77% chance according to FanGraphs.  Braves fans continue to wonder why the club hasn’t hammered out a deal with their perennial All-Star.

6. Kevin Gausman.  Gausman has scuffled as of late, with a 5.17 ERA and 10.6% walk rate in his last seven starts.  However, he remains the prize pitcher of the free agent class, and he has seven regular season starts plus the playoffs to cement his free agent bona fides.  Dating back to 2020, Gausman has a 2.94 ERA and and 30.4% strikeout rate in 205 2/3 innings for the Giants.

7. Marcus Semien.  Semien joins this list for the first time, as he’s putting together his second MVP-caliber season within three years.  Maybe his 53-game 2020 season was the fluke, and Semien really is one of the best players in the game.  31 in September, he’s a candidate for at least a strong five-year deal in free agency.  Semien has played mostly second base this year in deference to Bo Bichette, but as a free agent he’ll be a consideration at both middle infield positions.  Semien’s 5.2 WAR is only bested among position players by the incomparable Shohei Ohtani.

8. Marcus Stroman.  Stroman, 30, ranks seventh among qualified NL starters with a 2.84 ERA in 145 1/3 innings.  He succeeds on the strength of his home run prevention and solid control and is a candidate for a five-year deal.  Stroman has shown no rust after opting out of the 2020 season.

9. Robbie Ray.  Ray, with an identical WAR to Stroman at the moment, presents an interesting contrast.  Ray’s 30.7% strikeout rate ranks second in the AL, coupled with a career-best 6.4 BB%.  It’s truly shocking to see Ray with such a low walk rate, as he had baseball’s worst walk rate – by far – last year among those with at least 50 innings.  He ranked the second-worst in that regard in 2019.  While Toronto’s $8MM deal for Ray has turned into a masterstroke, the lefty will be very difficult to value as a 30-year-old free agent.

10. Nick Castellanos.  With a 146 wRC+, Castellanos has been the seventh-best hitter in the NL this year.  He sports a solid 121 mark since returning from a microfracture in his right wrist on August 5th.  Castellanos, 30 in March, has the ability to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract with the Reds after the season.  He’ll almost certainly do that, and reject a qualifying offer from the Reds as well.

Honorable mentions

Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon, Chris Taylor, Javier Baez, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte

Scherzer and Rodon in particular just missed making my top 10.  Even at age 37, Scherzer could land a three-year deal in the $100MM range.  But he could also seek something just above two years and $72MM, which would result in a new record for average annual value.  Rodon is having a season for the ages after being non-tendered by the White Sox and then returning on a $3MM deal.  However, he’s currently on the IL for shoulder fatigue, and even at age 29 he’ll be hard-pressed to find a five-year deal given his health history.  Taylor, the Dodgers’ super-utility man, has a 133 wRC+ since the start of 2020 and will likely surprise many with the size of his next contract.  Still, it figures to fall short of $100MM.

1.  Corey Seager.  Seager suffered a broken hand after getting hit by a pitch in mid-May, and seems likely to return around early July.  It will be interesting to see how Seager hits once he returns.  In 169 plate appearances to start the season, he sits at a 122 wRC+.  That’s strong work, but perhaps a bit short of Seager’s own standards, as he entered the season with a career mark of 130.

2.  Carlos Correa.  Correa is raking this season, with a 147 wRC+ that ranks second only to Xander Bogaerts among shortstops.  He’s also managed to play in all but three of the Astros’ games and hasn’t been on the IL since late in the 2019 season.  I debated Correa vs. Trevor Story back in mid-April…but can Correa move past Seager?  Correa’s Statcast hitting numbers are strong this year, and he even ranks fifth among shortstops in Outs Above Average on defense.  Plus, Correa is not set to turn 27 until September.

3.  Kris Bryant.  Bryant is having a monster season, posting a 160 wRC+ that ranks second among all free agents (assuming the Astros pick up Yuli Gurriel’s option).  Bryant is on pace for a six or seven WAR season.  That’s on par with the production of the first three years of his career, which netted him the 2016 NL MVP award.  Though Bryant once looked like an obvious trade candidate, the Cubs are currently clinging to first place in the NL Central.  FanGraphs puts their playoff odds at about 40%.  If that holds for the next month, trading Bryant won’t be a viable option for GM Jed Hoyer.  In that case, Bryant’s final overture from the Cubs may come in the form of a qualifying offer after the season.

4.  Trevor Bauer.  After the season, Bauer must decide whether to opt out of the remaining two years and $62MM on his contract with the Dodgers (causing a large chunk of his ’21 salary to be deferred) or potentially opting out of only the 2023 season, leaving just $17MM on the table.  Bauer’s calculus may be changing in light of MLB’s impending crackdown on the use of foreign substances.  Through Bauer’s first 12 starts, his four-seam fastball had 2,840 RPM at a velocity of 93.8 mph.  But on June 6th in Atlanta, Bauer’s spin rate dropped to 2,612 while staying at virtually the same velocity.

Will Bauer continue to post Cy Young level numbers for the remainder of the season if MLB’s sticky stuff rules are fully enforced?  If he slips – even if it has nothing to do with foreign substances or spin rate – the perception might be enough to prevent him from opting out.

5.  Trevor Story.  Story owns just an 89 wRC+ through 50 games; he hasn’t had a stretch this bad since 2017.  Plus, he hit the IL with right elbow inflammation in late May.  He’s expected to be activated today, and has plenty of time to right the ship before the Rockies most likely trade him in July.

6.  Freddie Freeman.  In 2018, a season in which Freeman finished fourth in the NL MVP voting, he had a 58-game stretch during which he posted a .780 OPS, which is a bit worse than what he’s done this year.  I don’t think there’s anything to worry about with the reigning NL MVP, even with a wRC+ all the way down to 111.  But the timing isn’t great for Freeman, who turns 32 in September and may have to be content getting a bit past Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM deal.

7.  Kevin Gausman.  Gausman has sustained his strikeout rate from last year, improved his control, and has benefitted from a 7.1% home run per flyball rate and .212 BABIP.  Since joining the Giants in 2020, Gausman has a 2.29 ERA in 137 1/3 innings.  Maybe his skills are more indicative of a 3.00 ERA, but that’s still top shelf work that may put him in the $100MM discussion.  Gausman bet on himself this year by accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer, and that decision is looking prudent so far.

8.  Javier Baez.  It’s tough to predict how the market will treat Baez.  The Cubs’ 28-year-old shortstop continues to do things you’ve never seen before on a baseball field, but he also owns a .240/.276/.480 swing-for-the-fences batting line with a 36.7 K%.  With potentially nine starting shortstops on the free agent market this winter, teams will have options.

9.  Clayton Kershaw.  Kershaw has thrown four clunkers in his last seven starts, sending his ERA from 2.09 to 3.66.  Overall, though, I don’t think his skills have changed.  The 33-year-old should still be able to land a three-year deal at a premium salary, even if he limits his potential destinations.

10.  Max Scherzer.  Scherzer turns 37 in July, and will be highly sought-after if the Nationals are willing to trade him this summer.  Normally a pitcher at Scherzer’s age has little chance at a three-year deal, but so far he has a 2.22 ERA, 36.1 K%, and 5.2 BB%.  I think someone might spring for the third year.

Honorable mentions

Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez, Mark Canha, Brandon Crawford, Chris Taylor, Marcus Semien, Buster Posey, Starling Marte, Craig Kimbrel, Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodon, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman are among those having big years, though if we set the bar for the top ten at $100MM they’ll have a hard time getting there.

A couple of Mets, Michael Conforto, and Noah Syndergaard, have been bumped from the top ten.  Conforto has failed to hit for power thus far, while Syndergaard had a setback in his rehab from Tommy John surgery.  Dylan Bundy also fell off the list, as he’s given up 23 runs in his last 21 innings.  There are others who fall somewhere in-between, having a solid but not spectacular year, like Anthony Rizzo, Avisail Garcia, Zack Greinke, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley.

In our interpretation, Trout’s ten year, $360MM extension from March 2019 still reigns supreme among baseball contracts.  Though Trout tore up his existing contract and technically put pen to paper on a 12-year, $426.5MM deal with the Angels, he had two years and $66.5MM remaining on his old deal at the time.  The Angels committed $360MM in new money, which is the figure we think matters and allows for accurate comparison.  Baseball’s first true $400MM man has yet to be anointed, and that’s unlikely to happen as part of the 2021-22 free agent class.  MLB Trade Rumors maintains the definitive list of the largest MLB contracts here.

Though he had fallen short of our top ten back in March, Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. is also off the board.  McCullers signed a five-year, $85MM extension to remain with the Astros, a reminder that Boras Corporation clients don’t always explore free agency.  McCullers had age on his side, as he doesn’t turn 28 until October.  The Astros were willing to grant McCullers a fifth year despite the fact that he has never pitched as many as 140 Major League innings in a single season, postseason included.  That’s partially due to his November 2018 Tommy John surgery, from which McCullers is fully recovered, as well as the shortened 60-game MLB season in 2020.

As a catcher slated to hit free agency in his age 32 season, the Royals’ Salvador Perez also failed to crack my top ten last month.  Perez did better than I thought, with his agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council securing a four-year, $82MM extension.  Perez will be nearly four years younger than Yadier Molina was upon starting his three-year extension, so it makes sense that Perez would command a longer term.  Perez was also able to inch past Molina’s $20MM average annual value, becoming the third catcher to reach that mark along with standard-bearer J.T. Realmuto.

The 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings below represent my estimation of the players’ earning power, with the uncertainty of the expiring collective bargaining agreement set aside.  You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

1. Corey Seager.  Even with Lindor locked up, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class still includes seven starting-caliber players in Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, and Jose Iglesias.  Everything we said about Seager last time remains true: it’s exceedingly rare to find a shortstop who can hit this well.  It may be foolish to try to read tea leaves based on 49 plate appearances this year, but Seager’s walk rate is higher than ever so far and perhaps this will be the first time he reaches 70 free passes in a season.  Will the Dodgers allow their star shortstop to reach free agency?  Jon Heyman provided an update on March 30th, noting that the Dodgers “made an effort on Seager,” which obviously did not come to fruition.  As he approaches his 27th birthday this month, Seager has a clear benchmark to aim for in Lindor’s $341MM.

2. Trevor Bauer.  The most notable recent development involving Bauer was MLB’s collection of multiple baseballs he threw during his April 7th start at Oakland.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, “The balls had visible markings and were sticky, and were sent to the league offices for further inspection, the sources said.”  Rosenthal the baseballs were “brought to the umpires’ attention.”  This occurred only weeks after after MLB sent a memo to teams “alerting them of plans to crack down on pitchers’ use of foreign substances to manipulate pitch movement,” as Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post put it.  Per Janes’ article, the memo said collected baseballs would be tested at a third-party lab and players will be subject to discipline.

Bauer, who has been outspoken about pitchers’ widespread use of foreign substances on baseballs, had choice words in the wake of Rosenthal’s article.  It’s unclear whether Bauer was even being targeted in this instance, and it seems unlikely MLB could make a suspension stick (pun intended).

Most likely, this story is much ado about nothing, and will have no effect on Bauer’s earning power should he decide to opt out after 2021.  Given the structure of his contract, most feel that Bauer is more likely to opt out after 2022.  That’s why we didn’t include him in the snazzy image used in this post.

3. Carlos Correa.  The Astros attempted to extend Correa by his self-imposed Opening Day deadline, offering six years and $120MM or five years and $125MM.  The six-year offer is an exact match for Xander Bogaerts’ contract with the Red Sox, which Bogaerts signed coming off a 133 wRC+, 4.9 WAR season.  That contract,  covering ages 27-32, contains an opt-out after the third year and a very achievable seventh-year vesting option.  The extension still felt a bit light at the time for Bogaerts.  It still seems like a reasonable comparable for Correa at present, who hasn’t topped 110 games in the regular season since 2016 (though he was healthy in 2020).

If Correa is able to hit to his abilities (a 130 wRC+ or better) while playing 140+ games, he’ll prove himself right and probably at least double the Astros’ offer as a free agent.  Such a contract will probably come from another team, as Correa said of the Astros, “We didn’t get close at all.  There were not really any negotiations.”  He added, “Once I hit free agency, I’m going to look for a big, long contract. They made it very clear that they did not believe in that.”  Lindor’s contract is an obvious benchmark, with Correa noting in February, “I’m the one, I feel like with Lindor, that can do both — offensively and defensively — at a high level.  I always have the option of going to third base if it’s needed (for a team).”

Lindor’s ten-year, $341MM contract, which has a present-day value of about $332MM, pays him through age 37.  Manny Machado was paid through age 35 on a ten-year deal worth $300MM.  Correa may have a ten-year deal in that price range in his sights, or he could tack on additional years to squeeze out a few extra dollars as Bryce Harper did.

4. Trevor Story.  Is it too early to start the Trevor Story Trade Watch?  The Rockies have virtually no chance of making the playoffs.  Assuming the qualifying offer system and its exemption for traded players remains in place, Story would get a little boost over rival shortstops Seager and Correa, who do not figure to be traded this summer.  Plus, Story would have two months to start building a case that he’s a 120 wRC+ hitter outside of Coors Field.

5. Freddie Freeman.  Asked about progress on a contract extension with the Braves, Freeman told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman on March 24th, “We haven’t been approached yet.”  A week later on Opening Day, Freeman said, “There is nothing to report on.”  For as much of a foregone conclusion Freeman staying with the Braves seems to be, the club appears willing to let the reigning NL MVP reach the open market or at least get weeks away from it.  I could see a sixth year becoming a sticking point.  Paul Goldschmidt signed a five-year extension with the Cardinals in March 2019, but he was new to the team, wasn’t on the open market, and didn’t have an MVP on his résumé.  The Braves haven’t gone past four years in free agency since signing B.J. Upton in November 2012.

6. Kris Bryant.  Bryant has been overshadowed by the shortstops of the 2021-22 free agent class, even though the Cubs and baseball fans have been talking about his free agency since his delayed call-up in 2015.  Less than 7% of the Cubs’ season is in the books, but in 44 plate appearances in 2021 Bryant has begun to erase the ugly 147 PA from 2020.  In a full-length season, Bryant has never posted a wRC+ below 126.  If this is a four or five-win season in the making, Bryant could vault up this list in a hurry.  With the Cubs currently sporting a 12.4% chance at making the playoffs, he’s a prime July trade candidate.

7. Michael Conforto.  With a 132 wRC+ from 2017-20, Conforto’s track record speaks for itself.  That’s why his first seven games of 2021 should be of little concern and shouldn’t affect his free agent value.  Though SNY’s Andy Martino reported on March 19th that the Mets made an offer to Conforto, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo wrote, “Shortly before Lindor signed his deal last week [March 31st], a source said the Mets had yet to exchange numbers with Conforto’s agent.”

The day of Lindor’s agreement, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, “With the Mets focused on Lindor, extension talks with Michael Conforto fizzled, with the two sides in different realms regarding contract value, according to a source. Though Conforto in spring training backed away from the idea of Opening Day as a hard deadline to negotiate, the likelihood of him testing free agency is strong.”  With a typical year, Conforto will be the top free agent outfielder on the market.

8. Clayton Kershaw.  There’s nothing new to report on Kershaw, who recently turned 33 years old.  Speculation, including from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, seems to be in the three-year, $90MM range for Kershaw.  The Dodgers remain the favorite, with the Rangers lurking as the hometown pick.

9. Noah Syndergaard.  If McCullers is worth five years and $85MM, Syndergaard deserves a spot on this list.  The Mets’ flamethrowing righty, who turns 29 in August, is currently on the mend from March 2020 Tommy John surgery.  Syndergaard was said to have hit 96 miles per hour in a mid-March bullpen session and remains on track for a mid-June big league return.  That could give Syndergaard more than 20 starts to prove his health prior to free agency.

10.  Dylan Bundy.  The Angels’ Opening Day starter continues to see his stock rise after three strong starts to open the season.  His velocity is up a full two miles per hour from 2020.  In his 14 starts with the Angels dating back to last year, Bundy has a stellar 27.3 K% and 6.4 BB%.  Bundy won’t turn 29 until November, meaning he’s more than a year and a half younger than fellow free agents Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.  Drafted fourth overall by the Orioles out of high school in 2011, Bundy seems to be realizing his promise at the opportune time.

I missed this last time, but new Cardinal Nolan Arenado said in February that there is a “very, very high chance” that he will not be opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal, suggesting that staying put is “part of how we made the contract,” where the Redbirds added one year and $15MM to his deal.  So, there’s little reason to include him in these rankings.  Meanwhile, the Mariners’ James Paxton had his hopes for a comeback season dashed, as the need for Tommy John surgery arose 21 pitches into his season.

Aside from the aforementioned Gausman and Stroman, Max Scherzer, Lance Lynn, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Eduardo Rodriguez remain on the outskirts of the top ten.

It’s worth noting that the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st.  With so much uncertainty as to how that will play out and whether there will be a work stoppage, I’m going to mostly set it aside for the purposes of this post.

1.  Francisco Lindor.  The largest MLB free agent contract ever signed was Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies two years ago.  Meanwhile, the largest extension was the 12-year, $365MM deal signed by Mookie Betts last summer.  The highest average annual value was the $36MM achieved by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole.  These are the records Lindor figures to be aiming for if he reaches free agency after a strong 2021 season.  A 5-WAR season, which is what projection systems call for, would help fully erase a 2020 campaign that saw the shortstop post a career-worst 102 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances.

Lindor is not the game’s best-hitting shortstop, and might not even belong in the top five.  But it is the combination of a quality bat and strong defense that puts him in the conversation for the best overall at his position.  As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class is exceptional, with eight potential starters at the position.  At least half of them are star-caliber.

Lindor’s nickname, Mr. Smile, comes from the impression that he represents “nothing but pure baseball joy,” in the words of Will Leitch.  Lindor’s personality will be amplified now that he’s been traded to the big-market Mets.  Upon the January 7th trade, there was an assumption by some that the suddenly deep-pocketed Mets would move quickly to sign Lindor to a contract extension.  Those talks might be taking place right now, based on this Jon Heyman tweet, and he describes Opening Day as “at least a soft deadline.”  By the next installment of these Power Rankings, we should know whether Lindor is likely to reach the open market at age 28.  Lindor is represented by SportsMeter.

2.  Corey Seager.  Born about five months after Lindor, Seager is arguably just as good.  Seager finished 9th in the NL MVP voting in the abbreviated 2020 season, and he too is forecasted to post a 5-WAR 2021 season.  Seager played beyond that level from 2016-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and was limited to 26 games that year.  His 2019 return was more good than great, but then Seager put up a 152 wRC+ in 232 regular season plate appearances in 2020, going on to win both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards.  Aside from possibly Fernando Tatis Jr., no shortstop carries a more potent bat than Seager.

Defensively, Seager’s work does not jump off the page, especially that which came after his Tommy John procedure.  It stands to reason that Seager may be expected to move to the hot corner at some point during the course of his next contract.  For that reason we’ve got him a touch behind Lindor in earning power, but that could change.  The Dodgers have the inside track to signing Seager if they want to, and it’s even plausible they could lock him up while dipping back under whatever the base tax threshold is in 2022.  Seager is represented by the Boras Corporation.

3.  Trevor Bauer.  Will Bauer return to the free agent market after a single season with the Dodgers?  He’s built the option into his contract.  If Bauer opts out of the remaining two years and $64MM, he gets a $2MM buyout, but $20MM of his ’21 salary will be deferred without interest until 2031.  So there’s a financial calculation to be made, and locking in more guaranteed money – potentially more than $200MM – could become especially appealing if Bauer pitches at a Cy Young-caliber level for all of 2021.  He’ll also be free of the qualifying offer the next time around, though it remains to be seen how that might be adjusted in the next CBA.

The easier choice might be to opt out after 2022, at which point Bauer will have earned $85MM over two seasons and wouldn’t be risking much.  Bauer is represented by Luba Sports.

4.  Trevor Story.  Story’s 13.5 WAR since 2018 has only been bested by Lindor and Xander Bogaerts among shortstops.  Still, age is a big factor in free agent earning power, as it affects the number of years teams are willing to give.  And Story is a full 22 months older than Carlos Correa.  Story is still a young free agent, however, as he’ll play at age 29 in the first year of his next contract.

Story mainly has to contend with Coors Field, in that he has a 141 wRC+ there since 2018 but a 105 mark on the road.  It’s not that simple, and many good hitters have seen continued success after leaving Coors.  But Story’s earning power may be boosted if the Rockies move him at the July trade deadline and he puts up his customary 120 wRC+ for a new team.  Plus, he could potentially shed the qualifying offer with a trade.

Story’s defense likely slots in ahead of Correa and Seager, and he’d beat any fellow free agent in a foot race.  As an all-around player, Story is quite valuable and comes with few question marks outside of the Coors Field factor.  He’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

5.  Carlos Correa.  Correa was once mentioned in the same breath as Lindor and Seager for those prognosticating about this free agent class, but his star has dimmed considerably since the Astros won the World Series in 2017.  There’s the sign-stealing scandal, in which Correa was a central player.  But so too was George Springer, and he was able to land a strong $150MM contract after re-asserting his hitting prowess sans trash cans.

For Correa, the problem is more that since 2017, he’s not been able to post a season in which he was both healthy and an above average hitter.  He raked at a 143 wRC+ in 2019, but was limited to 75 games due to a cracked rib and a back injury.  He avoided the IL in 2020, but put up a career-worst 98 wRC+ in 221 regular season plate appearances before going nuts for 55 PA in the postseason.  So before extending a contract of seven-plus years, teams need to see if Correa can be the 5-WAR player he once was.  His defense probably rates somewhere between Lindor and Seager.

Correa has age in his favor, as he’s about five months younger than Seager and 10 months younger than Lindor.  Still, he has the widest error bars of anyone on this list, and his 2021 season is crucial.  The Astros are at least taking the typical stance of planning to explore an extension.  Correa is represented by WME Baseball.

6.  Nolan Arenado.  Arenado, who was paired with Story on the left side of the Rockies’ infield for five years, has the ability to join him in free agency.  It’d require opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal.  To take such a leap, Arenado’s lone season with the Cardinals would have to be reminiscent of his stellar 2015-19 work, rather than the below-average output of his 48-game 2020 campaign.  He did play through a shoulder injury for much of the 2020 season.  Even with a 5-WAR 2021, Arenado might prefer to stick with the certainty of his current contract rather than chase a sixth guaranteed year.  Arenado is represented by Wasserman.

7.  Freddie Freeman.  Freeman had received MVP votes in five separate seasons prior to 2020, and despite a July COVID positive he went on to win the award.  He’s inarguably one of the top eight hitters in baseball right now, and possibly better than that.  Freeman signed a record contract extension for his service class back in 2014, which is why he’s scheduled to reach free agency as a 32-year-old.  Paying him through age 36 would mean a five-year term.  The Athletic’s David O’Brien has made it clear Freeman is highly unlikely to leave the Braves, so perhaps he’ll be surrendering his place on this list before long.  Freeman is represented by Excel Sports Management.

8.  Kris Bryant.  It seems odd to put Bryant this low, as he put up a 4.8 WAR season as recently as 2019.  At that point a free agent contract below $200MM would have seemed silly, but Bryant floundered in an injury-marred 2020 season and bears a 3-WAR projection heading into his age-29 campaign.  His defensive work at third base rates somewhere around average, and he’s generally held his own in the outfield corners.

It’s possible Bryant peaked early, with a 20.7 WAR total over his first three seasons that placed him on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  It’s also possible there are many more 130 wRC+ seasons left in his bat, and he’ll be a cornerstone in someone’s lineup.  Despite losing a grievance against the Cubs for manipulating his service time, and more recently enduring trade rumors, Bryant remains open to contract extension offers from the North Siders.  He seems more likely to hit the open market following a critical 2021 season.  Bryant is represented by the Boras Corporation.

9.  Michael Conforto.  Conforto is easily one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, and with his recent excellent work a case can be made for top 20.  Though the Mets gave him some time in center field in 2017-19, he fits best in a corner.  It’s been a while since a non-superstar corner outfielder has landed a six-year deal in free agency, but that figures to be a target for Conforto in light of George Springer’s contract.  Interestingly, Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters recently that one reason the team stopped at five years in the Springer bidding was that going to six would have made it harder to extend Conforto.

Conforto will be a full 29 months younger on Opening Day 2022 than Springer will be this year.  So there’s a case to go to a sixth or even seventh year for Conforto, though he’s generally not as center field capable as Springer.  As with Lindor, the Mets may look to hammer something out before the season begins.  Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation.

10.  Clayton Kershaw.  Despite a Hall of Fame worthy 13-year career, Kershaw is only about to turn 33 years old.  As of last month, though, he was non-committal about even playing in 2022 before later saying he has “a few years left in the tank.” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, “Obviously, it’s personal for him and Ellen, but I feel like all is right in the world if he finishes his career, whenever that is, in however many years, as a Dodger.” As Castillo notes, it would certainly be appealing to Kershaw to play close to home for the Rangers next year.

If it’s only a two-horse race and Kershaw is not likely to chase the money, perhaps his earning power is diminished.  But a four-year contract paying him through age 37 wouldn’t be unreasonable, if he wants to play that long.  Kershaw may prefer the flexibility of a two or three-year pact.  Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Honorable mentions

At this point, generally the potential for a $100MM contract gets a player onto this list.  I see three more players who could get there: Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard.  Players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rizzo, and Lance Lynn might comprise the next tier.