• 2020-21 Top 50 Free Agents list – Every time one of our Top 50 free agents signs, I add that info in red below his blurb in our list.  I also update our Honorable Mentions with teams and contracts, plus I list guys who signed for $5MM+ who didn’t make either list.  Bonus: you can use this post to see how our predictions panned out.  We published the post on November 2nd, and a lot has changed since then.
• Our mobile-friendly MLB free agent tracker showing all free agents, signed and unsigned
• Signed players ranked by total contract amount
• Unsigned players in our free agent tracker with the ability to filter by position
• Basic post listing all remaining 2020-21 MLB Free Agents by position
• Up-to-date list of players who will be free agents after the 2021 season
• Current leaderboard for the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction contest.  MLBTR reader Oddvark produced a cool chart showing the predictions participants made, which you can find here.
• Please note: DJ LeMahieu was said to be nearing an agreement on a six-year, $90MM deal with the Yankees on January 15th, but we’re still waiting for that one to become official.

JANUARY 4, 7:52 am: The expectation is that Sugano will decide on his destination by Tuesday, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

JANUARY 3: Japanese free agent Tomoyuki Sugano has until Thursday to sign with a Major League team if he wants to make the jump to the states, but he’s in a strong negotiating position. Sugano has a four-year offer from the Yomiuri Giants that includes three opt-outs, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). With that kind of offer in-hand, the highly-decorated NPB superstar need only make his move to MLB for an offer that checks all his boxes. MLBTR readers foresee the Mets winning the Sugano sweepstakes. Only 9.57% of readers thus far predict a return to Japan for Sugano. The right-hander must make a decision before 5 pm on Thursday when his posting period expires.

Optimists eager to see Sugano take on MLB hitters might see signs pointing to a stateside commitment, however.  The contracts being offered Sugano by MLB teams surpass the offer from the Yomiyuri Giants, at least in total dollar amount, and he’s deep into negotiations with a couple of clubs, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The presumption is that Sugano will only cross the pond to join a large market team. MLBTR readers may be on the right track by predicting the Mets as his next team, but the Giants, Red Sox, and Blue Jays also qualify, and all three clubs appear to have interest.

Sugano’s standing offer from his long-time employer in Japan provides him with a good deal of personal agency. Those opt-outs mean that Sugano could replay this saga after each consecutive season, should he so choose. As one of the biggest stars in Japan, Sugano may be itching for a new challenge. He owns a 2.34 career ERA after eight seasons with the Giants, two of which ended with Sugano taking home the top honor for starting pitchers in the NPB, Sherman notes.

Though Sugano has until Thursday’s deadline to decide, it’s likely that he makes his decision sooner, notes both Rosenthal and Sherman. The 31-year-old could bet that owners will dole out more lucrative offers a year from now, presumably after a season that will include partial fan attendance. At that point he’d be entering his age-32 season, which may also be a consideration for the legendary hurler.

MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 15th annual Top 50 Free Agents list! For the entire list of free agents, plus the ability to filter by signing status, position, signing team, and qualifying offer status, check out our mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR? You can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, follow us on Instagram, and download our free app for iOS and Android.

MLBTR writers Steve Adams and Connor Byrne joined me in this collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations for many hours over the past month.  If you’d like to support the effort that went into this list, please consider a subscription.  Check out all the benefits here!

Our annual Free Agent Prediction for this group is now closed, but you can see the leaderboard here.

We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some.  The pandemic only makes the task harder, as we don’t know how conservative each club will be in light of drastically reduced revenue in 2020.  Have your say on all of this in the comment section!

On to our top 50 free agents:

1. Trevor Bauer – Dodgers.  Four years, $128MM.  Bauer, 30 in January, has the inside track for the NL Cy Young award this year.  In his stellar 73 innings, Bauer posted an NL-best 1.73 ERA.  He placed second in the league in K% and third in fWAR.  His control was excellent, and his 2.94 SIERA supports the elite nature of his surface-level stats.  Arguably the game’s foremost pitch scientist, Bauer was instrumental in putting Driveline Baseball on the map and has engineered his way to the highest fastball spin rate in baseball and a 92nd percentile curveball spin rate.

The abbreviated 2020 season successfully puts Bauer’s initial Reds stint in the rearview mirror, as he had posted a 6.39 ERA over ten starts after Cincinnati landed him at the 2019 trade deadline.  Some of Bauer’s success in 2020 is owed to an NL-leading .215 batting average on balls in play, an unsustainable figure.  In the three previous seasons, Bauer’s BABIP was .306, higher than that of MLB at large.  Bauer is a flyball pitcher, which has at times led to a subpar home run rate.  He’s had an erratic career statistically: a 2.21 ERA and sixth-place Cy Young finish in 2018, the 1.73 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, and no other seasons below 4.18.

The third overall pick by the Diamondbacks out of UCLA in 2011, Bauer has been marching to his own drum and generating headlines for his entire career.  He clashed with D’Backs catcher Miguel Montero and others in his rookie season, and landed in Cleveland in an offseason trade.  Bauer spent parts of seven seasons with the Indians, making the news for a drone-related injury, a Twitter conflict with a college student, and throwing the ball over the center field wall after being taken out of his last start for the team.  Bauer also seemingly served as a de facto pitching coach at times in Cleveland, taking a hand in the success of teammates Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber.  Bauer was eventually traded to the Reds in another three-team deal.

Bauer’s grievances with the Astros go back several years, and he’s been deeply critical of their sign-stealing scandal.  It’s safe to say he’s unlikely to sign with Houston despite recent trolling efforts.  The Yankees could be in play, as Bauer has made clear he’s past the conflict he had with former college teammate Gerrit Cole.  In September, Bauer walked back his longstanding commitment to exclusively signing one-year contracts in free agency, expressing an openness to longer deals.  Perhaps the idea behind the one-year pledge was flexibility, which Bauer could achieve through opt-outs or by limiting the term to fewer than the seven years he could theoretically receive.  That’s why we’ve landed at a four-year contract.  If Bauer doesn’t find the multiyear offers to his liking, it’s still possible to imagine a one-year contract — especially one where he exceeds Cole’s record $36MM average annual value.

Bauer has also expressed a desire to pitch for a contender known to be strong on technology.  Interestingly, he aims to pitch every fourth day, suggesting he considers himself capable of being the first pitcher to make 40 starts in a season since Charlie Hough in 1987.  I imagine that idea would have been well-received when Bauer was in one-year deal mercenary mode, but it will be harder to square for a team making a large multiyear commitment and/or taking on the downside risk of an opt-out clause.

We’ve never seen a free agent quite like Trevor Bauer in our 15 years doing this.  While the Reds have issued a qualifying offer to Bauer, they seem unlikely to finish as the winning bidder.  We see the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Blue Jays, Braves, White Sox, Giants, Angels, Twins, Padres, and Nationals as potential suitors.

Signed with Dodgers for three years, $102MM with two opt-outs.

2.  J.T. Realmuto – Mets.  Five years, $125MM.  Realmuto took over the mantle as the best catcher in baseball in 2018, and hasn’t let the title go since.  Thirty years old in March, Realmuto has a 114 wRC+, including a 125 mark this year.  Given that the typical catcher checks in at 90, Realmuto is a major asset with the bat.  He’s also adept at controlling the running game, ranking first in MLB since 2018 with a 41.3% caught-stealing rate (minimum 1,200 innings caught).  Statcast rates Realmuto as a 95th percentile pitch framer as well.  Realmuto is the fastest-running catcher in baseball too, a point in his favor for teams worried about his aging curve.  Realmuto’s offense and speed are above average for any player, so as a catcher with high-end defensive skills, he really stands out.

A third-round draft pick of the Marlins out of high school in 2011, Realmuto was traded to the Phillies in February 2019 for Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro.  While Alfaro has faltered for the Marlins, Sanchez’s recent success prompted Phillies owner John Middleton to declare he was against the deal unless Realmuto could be signed to an extension.  In Realmuto’s two years with the Phillies, a contract extension did not materialize, despite the advocacy of teammate Bryce Harper.  According to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer in June, Realmuto’s camp “viewed the five-year, $130 million extension signed by St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt before last season as a potential target.”  Exceeding the $23MM average annual value of Joe Mauer’s contract may also be a goal.  We believe that as the best catcher in baseball on the open market, Realmuto will set a new AAV record for catchers on a five or six-year deal.

The Phillies have issued a qualifying offer to Realmuto.  Should their efforts to sign him fall short, the Mets, Yankees, Nationals, Astros, Angels,  Blue Jays, Reds, or Cardinals are possible suitors.

Signed with Phillies for five years, $115.5MM.

3.  George Springer – White Sox.  Five years, $125MM.  Aside from Nelson Cruz, no free agent has topped Springer’s 153 wRC+ since 2019.  The 31-year-old has consistently mashed since the Astros called him up in 2014, and he rates as one of the 15 best position players in baseball.  Springer has cut his strikeout rate significantly over the years while developing 35 home run power.  Springer has played both right and center field in his career, generally ranking above average defensively.  For teams seeking a middle-of-the-order hitter capable of playing a premium defensive position, you can’t do much better than Springer on the free-agent market.

The elephant in the room: Springer was implicated in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal of 2017-18.  Tony Adams’ examination of 58 Astros 2017 regular season home games revealed 131 trash can bangs during Springer plate appearances, second-most on the team.  Springer’s strikeout rate in 2017 dropped to a career-best, though he bettered the mark in 2020 presumably without cheating.  An analysis by Jake Mailhot at FanGraphs suggested Springer thrived in medium-leverage situations on his trash can bangs, but was actually hurt in other instances.

Springer is an excellent hitter without cheating, as evidenced by his performance the last two seasons.  Much like players have gotten large contracts following steroid suspensions, Springer will find plenty of interest from GMs focused on winning.  He has apologized, and will likely be embraced by fans if he moves to a new team and continues producing.  He’ll hear his boos on the road when fans return, but I don’t think the PR of the sign-stealing scandal will have a major effect on his free agent market.  The Astros have made a qualifying offer to Springer, and a return does make sense.  Otherwise, the White Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, and Nationals are potential fits.

Signed with Blue Jays for six years, $150MM.

4.  Marcell Ozuna – Nationals.  Four years, $72MM.  For teams seeking pure offense, Ozuna’s 2020 season stands above everyone else.  The left fielder/DH, who’ll turn 30 in November, put up a 179 wRC+ that ranked third in all of baseball this past season.  He topped the NL with 18 home runs and 56 RBIs, monster numbers for a 60-game season.  Ozuna’s Statcast profile jumps off the page, with 96th percentile exit velocity, 97th percentile hard-hit rate, and 94th percentile barrel rate.  Ozuna’s exit velocity and hard-hit rate have usually been in the top ten percent in baseball, even when he was putting up a modest 108 wRC+ for the 2018-19 Cardinals.

One limiting factor with Ozuna is his defense.  With the Cardinals, a shoulder injury hindered his arm strength, limiting him to left field.  This year, Ozuna started at DH about 65% of the time.  Confirmation of an NL DH for 2021 would open up Ozuna’s market, but it helps that most believe the DH will become permanently universal the following year.  A National League club could certainly live with Ozuna as a full-time left fielder in 2021 and then look to work him in more at DH in subsequent seasons.

As a free agent last winter with a qualifying offer attached, Ozuna found the multi-year offers disappointing.  His best offer may have been in the range of the three years and $50MM reportedly offered by the Reds, which prompted Ozuna to take a one-year, $18MM deal with the Braves.  Now, unburdened by a qualifying offer and coming off a monster season, Ozuna is poised to get the high-end multi-year deal he craved a year ago.  The Braves figure to attempt to retain him, though all of their NL East competitors make some measure of sense.

Signed with Braves for four years, $65MM.

5.  DJ LeMahieu – Blue Jays.  Four years, $68MM.  Coming off an uninspiring 2018 season to cap his Rockies career, LeMahieu inked a two-year, $24MM free agent deal with the Yankees.  The move turned out to be a masterstroke for New York, with LeMahieu posting a 146 wRC+ over 871 plate appearances while playing his typical strong second base and holding his own at the infield corners.  It’s easy to argue that LeMahieu is the best free agent at first base, second base, and third base this winter.  He’s got three Gold Gloves on his resume and finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2019, hitting a career-high 26 home runs.  He topped that with a 177 wRC+ in 216 plate appearances this year, fourth in all of baseball.

2020 was actually LeMahieu’s second batting title, as he snagged one in 2016 with the Rockies as well.  LeMahieu rarely strikes out, with a 9.7 K% that ranked second in baseball this year.  His power increased significantly with the Yankees, though one red flag is that he had the third-worst average home run distance in MLB in 2020 at 360 feet.  He was bottom-20 in that regard last year as well, and LeMahieu’s 17 opposite-field homers when playing at home since Opening Day 2019 are easily the most in baseball.  (Freddie Freeman is next, at 12.)  In other words, it’s not clear that his power that will fully translate everywhere.  LeMahieu is certainly still squaring the ball up, however — he placed in the 86th percentile in exit velocity and 82nd in hard-hit percentage.  It’s just that he’s more likely to be a 15 home run hitter than 25.

In a normal offseason, Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM contract would be within reach for LeMahieu.  While his high-contact hard-hitting style, defense, and versatility should result in a strong market for the 32-year-old, we think he’ll fall short of Donaldson in this climate.  The Yankees will look to re-sign him after issuing a qualifying offer, but if they reach their limit the Blue Jays, Nationals, Angels, or Dodgers could be suitors.

Signed with Yankees for six years, $90MM.

6.  Marcus Stroman – Angels.  Four years, $68MM.  Stroman has a case as the best free agent starter available after Trevor Bauer.  Stroman, 29, began his season in July on the IL for a calf injury and then decided to opt out of the 2020 season as a “collective family decision.”  His body of work should still position him well in a weak market for free agent starting pitching.  In 2019, Stroman posted a 3.22 ERA and 62% groundball rate across 32 starts for the Blue Jays and Mets, a strong All-Star bounceback from a 2018 season marred by a shoulder injury and a blister.

From 2017-19, Stroman profiled very similar to Dallas Keuchel, albeit with an additional four miles per hour on his fastball.  One of the game’s top groundball starters, Stroman isn’t a big strikeout pitcher.  While his low 3.00s ERAs in 2017 and 2019 suggest a front-of-the-rotation arm, his continually-climbing SIERAs suggest an ERA closer to 4.00 is the more likely bet.  Because of his elite groundball tendencies, a strong infield defense may help Stroman outperform his peripherals.

While missing the 2020 season doesn’t help Stroman’s cause, he’s well-regarded around the game and may be able to match or exceed Nate Eovaldi’s four-year, $68MM pact.  The Mets have issued a qualifying offer, which will be detrimental to Stroman’s market to some degree.  In the likely event Stroman declines, the Angels, Braves, Nationals, Giants, Phillies, and White Sox could be possibilities.

Accepted one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer from Mets.

7.  Ha-Seong Kim – Rangers.  Five years, $40MM (plus $7.625MM posting fee).  The list of 25-year-old legitimate shortstops who can hit for power that have jumped from either NPB or the KBO to Major League Baseball is– check that, it doesn’t exist. At least until now. Kim is a unicorn given his blend of age, power, speed and defensive aptitude at a premium position. Most Asian professional players are in their late 20s or early 30s by the time they’re either posted for MLB clubs (typically after seven or eight seasons) or reach unrestricted international free agency (after nine seasons). Kim, despite his youth, already has seven pro seasons under his belt thanks to an 18-year-old KBO debut, and the Kiwoom Heroes have agreed to post him for big league clubs this winter.

There’s always some degree of uncertainty with hitters coming over from Japan or South Korea to face what is accepted as a superior level of pitching. There’s a general expectation that Kim, however, is better equipped to handle the change than most. Baseball America wrote back in May that he’d be a Top 100 prospect in MLB the moment he came over — and that was before he set the KBO ablaze with an outrageous .314/.405/.541 slash — good for a 147 wRC+. Kim walked more often than he struck out (12 percent versus 10.4 percent), belted 30 home runs and swiped 21 bases in 23 tries. (He’s 54-for-60 over the past two seasons.) FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen calls Kim a “5-foot-9 stick of dynamite” with “thunderous” physical tools.

The simple fact is that players with this type of upside typically don’t attempt to come to the Major Leagues until they’re on the downside of their prime or even beyond it. Kim is bucking that trend, and while he’s doing so in the most uncertain economic climate in recent MLB memory, the possibility of landing an in-his-prime bargain who can provide above-average offense at shortstop, second base or third base is so tantalizing that we expect a club to make a bolder play than we’ve seen for a KBO position player to date.

You could make the argument that Kim is a coveted player for any rebuilding club as it looks to turn the corner or as a high-upside plug-in for a more immediate win-now club. We expect him to trounce previous contracts for older, star-level KBO hitters like Jung Ho Kang (four years, $11.5MM) and ByungHo Park (four years, $12MM). Given that he can play three infield slots, Kim could be theoretically placed on any club. The most sensible fits, in our minds, are clubs several years into a rebuild — Tigers, Orioles, Mariners — or win-now teams with an obvious hole at an infield position. That could be the Angels, A’s, Phillies, Reds or Cardinals, but it’s frankly pretty easy to make an on-paper case for Kim with any team that isn’t completely risk-averse and is willing to spend a bit of money. Kim does not have a geographic preference for where he signs and will likely go to the highest bidder who is willing to plug him directly onto its 2021 Opening Day roster.

Signed four-year, $28MM deal with Padres.  Additional $5.25MM release fee paid to Kiwoom Heroes.

8.  Didi Gregorius – Reds.  Three years, $39MM.  Gregorius, 31 in February, bet on himself last offseason in signing a one-year, $14MM deal with the Phillies.  He was able to deliver a full, healthy season with a 116 wRC+, basically looking like vintage Yankees Didi before his October 2018 Tommy John surgery.  Of the big three veteran shortstops on the market this winter, Gregorius clearly had the best season.

A native of Curacao, Gregorius was born in Amsterdam because his father was pitching there, according to Baseball America.  The Reds signed him for $50K in 2007, and Gregorius steadily improved his stock in the minors.  He was blocked in Cincinnati by Zack Cozart, however, and landed with the Diamondbacks in the same three-team deal that netted Trevor Bauer for the Indians.  Two years later Gregorius was part of another three-team deal, joining the Yankees as Derek Jeter’s replacement.  By 2017 he developed an above-average bat and received MVP votes in a pair of 4+ WAR seasons for the Yankees.  This is his shot at a solid multiyear deal, and the Phillies choice not to issue a qualifying offer only helps his market.  The Phillies may look to retain him, but otherwise the Reds and Angels would be good fits.

Signed with Phillies for two years, $28MM.

9.  Kevin Gausman – Giants.  Accepts one year, $18.9MM qualifying offer.  Gausman is the hardest-throwing free agent starter at 95.2 miles per hour on average, and his strikeout rate and SIERA trailed only Bauer.  Gausman turns 30 in January and seemed primed for the first multiyear deal of his career – until the Giants tagged him with a qualifying offer.  For a player who had been non-tendered the previous winter, locking in $18.9MM for 2020 while continuing to pitch in a favorable environment might be too hard to pass up.  Plus, he’s the type of player who might be dragged down by a qualifying offer on the open market, with teams not thrilled to give up a draft pick to sign him.

We only have ten starts of the new and improved Gausman, which is why we think he might lean toward the risk-averse side.  His first appearance of the season with the Giants was in long relief, and he missed one start with elbow tightness in September.  The prior year, the righty had bombed in a half-season with Atlanta — primarily due to a spike in BABIP — and then was claimed off waivers by the Reds, who used Gausman somewhat effectively in relief.  But before 2019, Gausman had established himself through solid work over a five-year span in the AL East with the Orioles — a 4.03 ERA over 775 2/3 innings.  From 2016-18, Gausman had almost exactly the same fWAR as fellow free agent Marcus Stroman.  He’s a guy with a respectable track record, coming off a season that suggests there’s another level for him.  We think Gausman will accept the qualifying offer, but if not, the Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, White Sox, Nationals, and Phillies all look viable.

Accepted one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer from Giants.

10.  Masahiro Tanaka – Yankees.  Three years, $39MM.  If you were an MLBTR reader seven years ago, you remember what a huge deal it was that the Rakuten Golden Eagles posted Tanaka coming off a monster year in Japan at just 26 years of age.  The Yankees won the bidding with a then-massive seven-year, $155MM deal, complete with an opt-out clause and another $20MM posting fee paid to the Golden Eagles.  Just 18 starts into his MLB career, Tanaka was diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm.  Doctors said surgery was not yet needed.  More than six years have passed since then, and Tanaka never did require Tommy John surgery.

Tanaka’s Yankees career has been that of a solid mid-rotation starter, peaking with a seventh-place Cy Young finish in 2016.  He averaged 30 starts per year from 2016-19 and had a healthy 2020 season aside from a mild concussion from a line drive.  Tanaka has impeccable control, but has been prone to the long ball throughout his career with over 16% of his fly-balls leaving the yard (at home and on the road).  He’s not as exciting as he was seven years ago, but he’ll draw widespread interest as someone who was able to post a sub-4.00 ERA for the big-market Yankees.  And unlike Bauer, Stroman, and Gausman, Tanaka hasn’t been tagged with a qualifying offer.  If the Yankees somehow don’t keep him, the Mets, Cubs, Braves, Giants, Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox, and White Sox are potential suitors.

Signed with Rakuten Golden Eagles for two years.

11.  Jake Odorizzi – Blue Jays.  Three years, $39MM.  Last winter, after a breakout 2019 season, we predicted a three-year deal for Odorizzi.  He may have had a few such offers on the table, but Odorizzi instead chose to accept a qualifying offer from the Twins for a $17.8MM salary.  His 2020 season did not go as planned, as he started the season on the IL for a back injury.  After he made it back for three starts, he was hit in the chest by a batted ball, with the resulting abdomen injury knocking him out for nearly a month.  His lone September start was cut short by a blister, and he didn’t wind up pitching again.  So it was a lost season of only 13 2/3 innings for Odorizzi.

Re-entering the market during a pandemic is not ideal, but Odorizzi does benefit from the lack of a qualifying offer and a weak free agent market for starting pitching.  He’s shown the ability to miss bats, and averaged 30 starts per year over a six-year period.  Odorizzi still has never gone on the IL for an arm injury, and he maintained his 2019 velocity uptick in this year’s limited sample of work.  A multiyear deal should be there for him, with a similar market to Tanaka.

Signed with Astros for three years, $23.5MM.

12.  Liam Hendriks – Phillies.  Three years, $30MM.  Hendriks went from going unclaimed on waivers by 29 teams to making the All-Star team in the span of one year.  Now, he’s the best reliever on the free agent market.  The Australian righty, 32 in February, boasts a 1.79 ERA, 13.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 0.49 HR/9 over 110 1/3 innings since 2019 for the Athletics.  He led all MLB relievers in WAR easily over that period, and his 96.4 mile per hour fastball ranks 11th among those with at least 80 innings.  Hendriks is fifth in MLB in leverage index during that period, so he’s done all this pitching in the most critical parts of games.

Signed by the Twins out of Australia in 2007 for $170K, Hendriks had a breakout season a decade ago in the minors.  At the time, Baseball America said he “pumps four quality pitches for strikes.”  Nonetheless, Hendriks struggled as a starter in the Majors for the Twins.  Once they decided to move on in 2013, he was claimed off waivers three times in a span of 70 days, landing with Toronto and joining Marcus Stroman in the 2014 Buffalo Bisons’ rotation.  He was traded to the Royals that summer, designated for assignment after the season, then traded back to the Blue Jays.  After finally finding success out of the Jays’ bullpen in 2015, Hendriks was traded in the offseason to the A’s for Jesse Chavez.  After a few years of solid work, Hendriks’ ERA sat at 7.36 through 11 innings for the 2018 A’s, and they designated him for assignment in favor of Edwin Jackson.

From that low point, Hendriks earned his way back onto the A’s 40-man roster and ascended to become not just their best reliever, but one of the best in baseball.  The A’s choice not to issue a qualifying offer can only help Hendriks’ market. Prior to Brad Hand and his $10MM salary passing through waivers unclaimed, we would have said Will Smith’s three-year, $40MM contract with the Braves would serve as a target for Hendriks.  Now, we’re not so sure he can get there.  Still, the Phillies, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Astros, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Nationals could be suitors as teams in need of late-inning relief.

Signed with White Sox for three years, $54MM.

13.  Michael Brantley – Braves.  Two years, $28MM.  Brantley, 34 in May, ranked 20th in MLB among qualified hitters with a 134 wRC+ over the past two seasons for the Astros.  His .309 batting average during that time ranked eighth in MLB, and his 11.4% strikeout rate was fourth-best.  He’s the perfect fit for teams seeking a productive contact hitter who can handle left field.  The Astros signed Brantley to a two-year, $32MM deal in December 2018, and the contract became a rousing success.  It’s worth noting that Brantley’s signing came after the Astros’ sign-stealing is thought to have ended, and he has not been implicated in the scandal.

Brantley, a seventh-round pick by the Brewers in 2005, was traded to the Indians in the 2008 CC Sabathia deal.  He developed into an above-average hitter by 2012, peaking with a 6.5 WAR 2014 season and a third-place MVP finish.  Injuries limited Brantley to 101 games from 2016-17, but he’s avoided anything major in the last three seasons.  He has had the luxury of the DH spot in Houston, at which he was utilized more often this year than in the field (though that’s partially owed to Yordan Alvarez being out).  Brantley grades out as a solid left fielder, so NL teams will likely be in the mix this winter even if the DH isn’t confirmed for that league for 2021.  The Indians chose not to issue a qualifying offer after the 2018 season, nor did the Astros this winter.  The Braves, Astros, Nationals, Cardinals, Blue Jays, White Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers could be suitors.

Signed with Astros for two years, $32MM.

14.  Justin Turner – Dodgers.  Two years, $24MM.  Even at nearly 36 years old, Turner continued to rake with a 140 wRC+ this season for the Dodgers despite a dip in power.  Among those with at least 3,000 plate appearances from 2014 to present, Turner ranks ninth in all of baseball — just behind Bryce Harper — with a 141 wRC+.  It’s a remarkable ascension considering his journeyman trajectory prior to landing in L.A.

Turner was drafted in the seventh round as a senior out of Cal State Fullerton by the Reds in 2006, praised for his baseball instincts and love of the game.  After a December 2008 trade to the Orioles, Baseball America noted, “He’ll never be a star, and his lack of arm strength may make it tough for him to fill a utility role in the big leagues, but his ability to hit for average and get on base will get him there.”  Turner failed to make an impact with the Orioles, who designated him for assignment in May 2010 to make room for Scott Moore.  The Mets claimed Turner off waivers and gave him some opportunities from 2011-13, non-tendering him in 2013 with little fanfare despite a salary projection of less than $1MM.  Turner inked a minor league deal with his hometown Dodgers in February 2014, turning down offers from the Red Sox and Twins.  No team, including the Dodgers, realized that after an offseason hitting with former teammate Marlon Byrd, Turner would establish himself as one of the game’s best hitters over the next seven years.

There are a few negatives, as Turner has lost a step defensively and isn’t the most durable player.  He’d benefit from the addition of an NL DH, but could certainly handle infield corner work for at least one more season.  It’s hard to picture the Dodgers letting Turner go, but if they do, the Nationals and Braves would be good fits.  Turner recently garnered headlines for his removal from Game 6 of the World Series for a positive COVID-19 test, and his subsequent return to the field after the game to celebrate.  The incident will likely have no effect on his free agency but could lead to some form of league discipline.

Signed with Dodgers for two years, $34MM.

15.  Marcus Semien – Angels.  One year, $14MM.  Semien reaches free agency after six seasons as the A’s starting shortstop.  He had settled in as a speedy, durable league-average bat with solid defense, until he broke out with a 137 wRC+ and 33 home runs in 2019.  That season earned him a third-place MVP finish, but he was not able to repeat in 2020.  Semien has never really lit up Statcast, and this year he was around the 10th percentile in most batting metrics.

Semien’s exploration of free agency comes free of a qualifying offer.  He could seek out a one-year deal and hope for better offensive results, or he could look to max out his payday now with a two or three-year deal.  The A’s may try to find a way to keep the Bay Area native, and otherwise the Angels, Blue Jays, Phillies, Reds, and Yankees could be suitors.

Signed with Blue Jays for one year, $18MM.

16.  James McCann – Phillies.  Two years, $20MM.  After J.T. Realmuto, McCann is the best catcher on the free agent market this winter.  The 30-year-old spent four years as the Tigers’ starting catcher, topping out at a 94 wRC+.  Facing a potential $3.5MM salary through arbitration, Detroit chose not to tender McCann a contract in November 2018.  The White Sox snagged him as a free agent on a $2.5MM salary.  Surprisingly, McCann made the All-Star team for the Sox in 2019, posting a 109 wRC+ and prompting the club to tender him a contract (with a $1.9MM raise) afterward despite the club already having Yasmani Grandal in tow.  The decision paid off, as McCann posted a stellar 144 wRC+ in 111 plate appearances.

Defensively, McCann has long been known for shutting down the running game.  Pitch framing had been a weakness, but McCann found improvement by working with Jerry Narron last offseason and was able to demonstrate 88th percentile framing in his 245 2/3 innings behind the dish this year.  Overall, McCann has raised his game enough in his time with the White Sox that a three-year deal might be available to him in free agency.  The feeling here is that two is likelier, with the Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Marlins, Brewers, and Yankees among those who could vie for his services.

Signed with Mets for four years, $40.6MM.

17.  Andrelton Simmons – Yankees.  One year, $12MM.  Simmons, 31, carries a reputation as the best defensive shortstop in baseball.  In eight-plus seasons with the Braves and Angels, Simmons has won the Gold Glove four times.  Looking at 2013-19, Simmons absolutely laps the field in defensive metrics like UZR and DRS not only among shortstops but all players, regardless of position.  He’s all over the Statcast Outs Above Average leaderboard for 2017-19.  Offensively, Simmons has a high-contact, low-power profile, peaking with a 105 wRC+ from 2017-18.  His defense was so valuable that he still ranked second among MLB shortstops in WAR during that period, behind only Francisco Lindor.

Simmons’ durability was strong from 2013-18, during which he averaged 146 games per year.  But in May 2019, Simmons suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain trying to beat out a groundball, and had to be helped off the field.  He aggravated the injury in August of that year, and the issue resurfaced this summer.  He ended his 2020 season, and most likely his Angels career, a bit early by opting out on September 22nd.  Simmons only played 265 1/3 innings in the field this year, but it’s fair to ask whether he can return to his Ozzie Smith-like ways.  He posted a negative defensive runs saved mark for the first time in his career, and rated in the 20th percentile in outs above average.  While he may receive multiyear offers, Simmons may be best-served to a take a one-year deal in hopes of rebuilding value.  Like fellow free agent shortstops Didi Gregorius and Marcus Semien, Simmons was not issued a qualifying offer.  He could fit at shortstop for several teams, including the Yankees, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, and Indians.

Signed with Twins for one year, $10.5MM.

18.  Joc Pederson – Cardinals.  Two years, $18MM.  Pederson, 29 in April, should be one of the more affordable power-hitting outfielders after experiencing a down season.  Just last year, Pederson smacked 36 home runs in 514 plate appearances for the Dodgers, the fourth time he’s hit 25+ bombs.  Nearly traded to the Angels in February,  Pederson was part of the Dodgers’ left field platoon this year.  He never found his swing, putting up a career-worst 88 wRC+ in 138 plate appearances.  Pederson is strictly a platoon bat, only reaching 100 plate appearances against lefties in one season in his career and never having success against them.

On the other hand, Pederson posted a 132 wRC+ against right-handed pitching from 2015-19, which ranked 21st in all of baseball.  Even in his rough 2020 season, Pederson showed 96th percentile exit velocity, 79th percentile hard hit percentage, and 68th percentile barrel rate, so there’s good reason to think he’ll get back to mashing righties.  Pederson has been used at all three outfield positions, though he fits best at the corners.  A two-year deal gives him the opportunity to head back to the market in advance of his age-31 season, so he could lock in some cash now and still have another shot at a second decent free-agent deal — perhaps after a better platform campaign.  The Cardinals, Giants, Astros, Nationals, White Sox, and Tigers are potential matches.

Signed with Cubs for one year, $7MM.

19.  Jose Quintana – Red Sox.  Two years, $18MM.  Like Jake Odorizzi, Quintana is another typically reliable starter who had a lost year in 2020.  Quintana, 32 in January, pitched only ten innings for the Cubs this year due to thumb surgery and lat inflammation.  The Cubs expected big things from the southpaw upon acquiring him in July of 2017, sending Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease to the White Sox.  Q wound up providing a 4.24 ERA over 439 2/3 innings for the Cubs, short of what he furnished for the White Sox for the better part of five seasons.

Signed as a free agent by the White Sox in November 2011, Quintana was sixth among all MLB pitchers with 18.2 WAR from 2014-17, though he only made one All-Star team.  Even in 2018-19, he wasn’t quite the innings eater he once was, averaging 5.4 innings per start.  But even 160 innings of 4.25 ERA ball would have value for MLB teams short on capable starting pitching.  The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, Braves, Giants, Mets, Nationals, or Phillies could fit the bill.

Signed with Angels for one year, $8MM.

20.  Nelson Cruz – Twins.  One year, $16MM.  Even at age 40, all Cruz does is hit.  The Twins’ DH posted a 164 wRC+ this year with 16 home runs.  His 150 wRC+ from 2015-20 ranks second in MLB among qualified hitters — behind only Mike Trout.  Despite waiting until age 28 to become an MLB regular, Cruz has become one of MLB’s best hitters of the past decade.  He’s basically been a lock for 40 home runs every year dating back to 2014.

Cruz is strictly a designated hitter, so uncertainty about the NL DH in 2021 hurts his market.  He’s said to be seeking a two-year deal and can’t be tagged with a qualifying offer.  If a reunion with the Twins falls through, the White Sox, Rays, or a reunion with the Mariners could make sense.

Signed with Twins for one year, $13MM.

21.  Jackie Bradley Jr. – Astros.  Two years, $16MM.  Bradley, 31 in April, was drafted 40th overall in 2011 by the Red Sox out of the University of South Carolina as a supplemental pick for the loss of Adrian Beltre.  He shook off trade rumors to eventually become a starter in Boston’s outfield toward the end of the 2015 season, taking over the center field job in 2016 and holding it for five seasons.  Bradley made the All-Star team in ’16 and won a Gold Glove in 2018.  Statcast backed up Bradley’s defensive reputation this year, as he ranked in the 99th percentile for outs above average.

Offensively, Bradley has had runs as a 120 wRC+ bat, including a season and a half from 2015-16 and 217 plate appearances this year.  However,  he posted a very consistent 90 wRC+ over 1,643 plate appearances from 2017-19, suggesting he’s a bit below average as a hitter compared to the average center fielder.  The result is a floor of about two wins above replacement, with the potential for more.  For those not willing to spend on George Springer, Bradley is the only other starting center fielder on the market.  The Astros, Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Phillies could be interested.

Signed with Brewers for two years, $24MM.

22.  James Paxton – White Sox.  One year, $10MM.  Paxton, 32 in November, has spent his career tantalizing with ace potential but failing to stay healthy.  Nicknamed Big Maple, Paxton hails from Ladner, Canada.  He was drafted 37th overall by the Blue Jays out of the University of Kentucky in 2009.  After the Blue Jays were unable to sign Paxton, president Paul Beeston made public comments about negotiating with Scott Boras, which violated the NCAA’s goofy “no agent rule” that only allows for a “family adviser.”  As Matthew Sekeres wrote in the Globe and Mail back then, “It’s a fine line, and there is a wink-and-nudge nature to the dance.”  Fearing NCAA sanctions, Kentucky didn’t let Paxton play as a senior.  He wound up pitching independent ball, after which the Mariners drafted him in the fourth round.

Paxton ascended to the Mariners’ rotation at the end of 2013, but was limited to 13 starts the following year due to a lat strain, triceps tightness, and shoulder inflammation.  In 2015, Paxton was again limited to 13 starts, this time mainly due to a strained middle finger tendon.  Paxton spent some time in Triple-A to begin 2016, joining the Mariners in June but going down with forearm tightness in August.  Paxton’s healthiest years were 2017-18, when he averaged 26 starts and 148 innings per season despite missing time for a forearm strain, pectoral strain, back stiffness, a forearm contusion, and pneumonia.  During this time, his control sharpened and his strikeout rate spiked, culminating in a May 2018 no-hitter against Toronto.

The Mariners traded Paxton to the Yankees in November 2018 for a package of players led by Justus Sheffield.  Paxton made a career-high 29 starts for the 2019 Yankees, though he averaged only 5.2 innings per game and spent time on the IL for knee inflammation.  The Yankees gave him three key starts in the playoffs, the best of which was a win in Game 5 of the ALCS against the Astros.  After a hefty arbitration raise, Paxton underwent a microscopic lumbar discectomy to remove a peridiscal cyst from his back in February of this year.  With the delayed start to the MLB season, he was not expected to miss time, but he was diagnosed with a left forearm flexor strain in August, ending his season after 20 1/3 innings.

Agent Scott Boras spoke to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com in October, saying, “He’s back to the James Paxton of ’19 in how he feels, how he’s throwing.”  Boras suggested Paxton returned too quickly from his back injury, accounting for his significant 3.4 mile per hour velocity drop this season.  Given his lengthy injury history, a clean bill of health will be crucial for Paxton.  He could take a one-year deal in an attempt to rebuild value, though he will likely receive multiyear offers as well.  While Paxton can hardly be counted on for more than 150 innings, if he’s healthy in October he can serve as a big-game pitcher for a playoff team.

Signed with Mariners for one year, $8.5MM.

23.  Taijuan Walker – Nationals.  Two years, $16MM.  One of the younger free agents at 28 years old, Walker was drafted 43rd overall by the Mariners out of Yucaipa High School in California as a supplemental pick for the loss of, again, Adrian Beltre.  Walker was a teenage phenom in the minor leagues, ranking as a Baseball America top 20 prospect three years running.  He was often a rotation-mate of fellow free agent James Paxton.  Walker made his MLB debut in 2013 at age 21.  Shoulder inflammation sidelined him for most of the first half in 2014, but he was able to win the Mariners’ fifth starter job out of camp in 2015, and his 169 2/3 innings that year is a career-high to date.

Mariners managers Lloyd McClendon and Scott Servais had harsh words for Walker at various points, and his performance in Seattle’s rotation was underwhelming.  In November 2016 the club sent Walker and Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Zac Curtis.  Walker put up his best year in 2017: 28 starts with 2.5 WAR.  Unfortunately, he was diagnosed with a torn UCL the following season and had Tommy John surgery in April 2018.  The D’Backs still tendered him a contract for ’19, but Walker was diagnosed with a capsule strain in his right shoulder as he worked his way back.  He made just a single appearance that year and was non-tendered in the offseason, returning to the Mariners on a $2MM free agent deal.

After five starts for the Mariners, three of which were solid, Walker was traded to the Blue Jays for a minor leaguer.  Walker gave up only four earned runs in his 26.3 innings for Toronto.  Like Richards, this was a “good enough” Tommy John comeback season, as Walker averaged 4.85 innings per start and stayed healthy.  He posted a 2.70 ERA, but without the peripheral stats to support even a sub-4.00 mark.  His Statcast numbers were generally unexciting, aside from a 74th percentile hard hit rate.  Nonetheless, there’s still upside here in Walker’s age and prospect pedigree.  It’s easy to see a club that doesn’t need to rely on him for bulk innings hoping to catch lightning in a bottle on a two-year deal, and from his vantage point, such an arrangement would allow him to return to the market at 30 years of age.

Signed with Mets for two years, $20MM.

24.  Garrett Richards – Phillies.  Two years, $16MM.  Among free agents with at least 50 innings in 2020, no one threw harder than Richards’ 95.2 mile per hour average fastball velocity.  He did a decent job in his ten starts with the Padres this year, posting a 4.27 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 1.17 HR/9 in  46 1/3 frames.  Though he’ll turn 33 in May, Richards may offer enough upside to land a two-year deal.

Richards was drafted 42nd overall by the Angels back in 2009 out of the University of Oklahoma, a supplemental pick for the loss of Francisco Rodriguez.  Richards became a full-time starting pitcher for the Angels in 2014, making 58 starts over a two-year period despite dealing with knee surgery in-between.  Since then, he’s never started more than 16 games in a season.  The Halos’ Opening Day starter in 2016, Richards was diagnosed with a torn UCL shortly thereafter.  He chose a a platelet-rich plasma injection over Tommy John surgery, and then experienced nerve irritation in his biceps the following year.  Richards made only 12 starts from 2016-17, but got the Angels’ Opening Day nod again in 2018.  In July of that year, an MRI revealed a damaged UCL again, at which point Richards went for Tommy John.

The Padres, knowing they wouldn’t get much from Richards in 2019, still gave him a $15MM free agent deal with an eye on 2020.  After ten starts in which he averaged 4.63 innings, Richards was moved to the bullpen with the team hoping he could become a playoff weapon.  Ultimately Richards made four brief appearances in the playoffs, two of which were low-leverage.

Though the decision may have made sense at the time, Richards pitching just 147 1/3 innings from 2016-19 can be largely attributed to the choice not to have Tommy John surgery upon initially learning of his UCL tear.  While I wouldn’t necessarily expect him to go deep into games in 2021, it’s possible his injury woes are behind him after a healthy 2020 campaign.  He could potentially draw interest from a dozen clubs this winter.  Data-centric clubs will be especially interested, as Richards’ fastball and curveball both have some of the highest spin rates in the game.

Signed with Red Sox for one year, $10MM.

25.  Kolten Wong – Red Sox.  Two years, $16MM. The Cardinals’ decision to decline Wong’s $12.5MM club option came as a surprise to some, but this has long seemed like a plausible outcome. Wong’s profile — a pure second baseman lacking in power — is not one that gets paid well even in a normal offseason. Cesar Hernandez found himself non-tendered with a lower projected salary just one offseason ago, for instance.

Wong, 30, was drafted 22nd overall out of University of Hawaii at Manoa by the Cardinals in 2011.  He’s been an above-average hitter twice in his career, with 108 wRC+ seasons in 2017 and ’19.  Moving forward, I think offensive production right around league average can be expected from Wong.

Wong shines defensively, picking up a Gold Glove last year and showing strong marks in UZR, DRS, and outs above average.  Still, I’m not convinced defense-first, second-base only players like Wong or Cesar Hernandez will do well in free agency.  The Cardinals may try to retain Wong at a lesser rate, but otherwise the Red Sox, Angels, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Indians, Tigers, or Yankees could be fits.

Signed with Brewers for two years, $18MM.

26.  Brad Hand – Astros.  Two years, $14MM.  Hand’s surprising foray into free agency may serve as the canary in the coal mine for a cratering free agent relief market, and perhaps for free agency as a whole.  31 in March, the southpaw reeled off a superb 2020 season with a 2.05 ERA (22nd in MLB), 33.7 K% (18th in MLB), and 4.7 BB% (11th in MLB).  Since joining the Padres’ bullpen in an April 2016 waiver claim, Hand has posted 320 innings of 2.70 ERA ball, 10th in MLB among those with at least 200 innings.  He made three All-Star teams during that time.  The Padres traded Hand to the Indians in July 2018, and his success continued.

Hand’s $10MM club option for 2020 seemed like an easy call to exercise – even for the penny-pinching Indians, who could presumably trade the lefty later in the offseason.  Instead, the Indians made efforts to trade Hand prior to the option decision coming due, and offers were so poor or non-existent that they placed him on outright waivers in an attempt to simply avoid his $1MM buyout.  All 29 other teams still passed on Hand, which suggests they feel free agency (for relievers at the very least) will be a buyer’s market at levels well below years past.  One element of teams passing on Hand may be a velocity drop this year, down to 91.4 miles per hour.  Another might be a choice not to lock in a $10MM reliever – even a very good one – so early in the offseason.  Regardless, it’s difficult to project aggressive bidding on any free agent reliever after perhaps Hendriks.

Signed with Nationals for one year, $10.5MM.

27.  Trevor Rosenthal – Angels.  Two years, $14MM.  Rosenthal, 30, is one of the top relievers on the free agent market.  No free agent throws harder than his 98.0 mile per hour average fastball.  Among free agents with at least 20 innings this year, Rosenthal ranked sixth in MLB with a 41.8 K%, topped only by Jake McGee.  Upon being traded to the Padres at the end of August, Rosenthal put up ten scoreless innings with 17 strikeouts, one walk, and only three hits.  That magic wore off in the postseason, but it was still a stellar bounceback campaign.

A 21st round pick in 2009 by the Cardinals out of Cowley County Community College in Kansas, Rosenthal found immediate success as the Cardinals’ setup man, and ascended to closer in their march to the 2013 World Series.  Rosenthal made the All-Star team in 2015, but battled injuries the following year and was removed from the closer role.  An elbow injury surfaced in 2017, necessitating Tommy John surgery in August of that year.  Rosenthal spent 2018 rehabbing without a team, signing a $7MM deal for 2019 with the Nationals.  He struggled mightily for the Nats, earning his release by June.  The Tigers and Yankees then each gave him a shot with no success.

It was under these circumstances that Rosenthal inked a minor league deal with the Royals in December, reuniting with old manager Mike Matheny and impressing the team in the initial version of spring training.  His 14 appearances with the Royals went well enough that the Padres traded Edward Olivares — an MLB-ready, 45-grade outfield prospect — to rent him for September and the postseason.  A qualifying offer may have been a long shot anyway, but Rosenthal is ineligible for one on account of the trade.  A three-year deal may have been more likely for Rosenthal in a normal market, but he should still find a decent contract.

Signed with Athletics for one year, $11MM.

28.  Trevor May – Giants.  Two years, $14MM.  May, 31, is one of the more desirable arms on the relief market this winter.  His 39.6 K% ranked ninth among all MLB relievers, and fourth among free agents.  He averages more than 96 miles per hour on his heater and generally shows good control.  He is a fly-ball pitcher, and was touched up for a 1.93 HR/9 in the shortened season.

May was drafted out of high school by the Phillies in the fourth round in 2008 and traded to the Twins in the December 2012 Ben Revere deal.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2017, which he kindly agreed to write about here at MLBTR in posts here and here.  May was able to successfully return from surgery in 2018 and post a 3.19 ERA over his next 113 innings with the Twins.  He has the premium velocity, strong spin-rate and high whiff rate profile that analytical clubs value over raw saw numbers in free agency.

If the Twins let May leave, he figures to draw the interest of many teams, perhaps including the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, and White Sox.  Like Rosenthal, he’d be pegged for a three-year deal in a normal offseason.

Signed with Mets for two years, $15.5MM.

29.  Blake Treinen – Marlins.  Two years, $14MM.  Treinen, 32, was utterly dominant for the 2018 A’s, posting a 0.78 ERA in 80 1/3 innings and finishing in sixth place in the Cy Young voting.  He battled a rotator cuff strain in 2019, his season ending early with a stress reaction in his back.  After posting a 4.91 ERA and career-worst walk rate in ’19, the A’s declined to tender Treinen a contract through arbitration.  The Dodgers picked him up on a one-year, $10MM free agent deal shortly thereafter.

Treinen provided good, but not great results for the Dodgers with a 3.86 ERA and 20.6 K% in 25 2/3 regular season innings.  He did finish sixth among relievers with a career-best 64% groundball rate, and still throws 97 miles per hour on average.  Treinen will find plenty of interest from teams like the Marlins, Phillies, Astros, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Mariners, White Sox, and Red Sox if the Dodgers don’t bring him back.

Signed with Dodgers for two years, $17.5MM.

30.  Tommy La Stella – Athletics.  Two years, $14MM.  An eighth round pick of the Braves in 2011 out of Coastal Carolina University, La Stella was traded to the Cubs in November 2014 for Arodys Vizcaino.  La Stella posted a 104 wRC+ in 587 plate appearances in his four years with the Cubs, with most chances coming against right-handed pitching.  After the ’18 season, the Cubs felt they were better off replacing La Stella with free agent Daniel Descalso.  That proved incorrect, as the Angels gave La Stella regular playing time in 2019 and he made the All-Star team before fracturing his right tibia with a foul ball.  His strong hitting continued this year, and La Stella was traded to the A’s in late August.  He has a 125 wRC+ in 549 plate appearances over the last two years.  That includes a 141 mark against right-handed pitching that ranks 18th in all of baseball and fourth among free agents.

La Stella is capable of playing both second and third base.  He’d fit with many clubs if the A’s let him go, including all three of his other former teams plus the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Nationals, Yankees, and Tigers.

Signed with Giants for three years, $18.75MM.

31.  Corey Kluber – Twins.  One year, $12MM.  Kluber had a Hall of Fame-worthy peak for the 2014-18 Indians, winning a pair of Cy Young awards while also finishing third twice and ninth once.  His 30.3 WAR ranked third among all starting pitchers during that time, his 28.5 K% ranked fourth, and his 5.2 BB% ranked sixth.  But Kluber, 35 in April, hit a wall in May of 2019 in suffering a non-displaced fracture of his right forearm from a line drive.  He was pulled from a rehab start in August of that year due to an oblique strain, knocking him out for the season after only seven starts.

Facing a $17.5MM club option, the Indians traded Kluber to the Rangers in December 2019 for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields.  Unfortunately, Kluber’s Rangers debut in July lasted only one inning before he went down for a Grade 2 tear of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder, ending his season.  With Kluber having pitched only 36 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, the Rangers declined their $18MM club option for 2021 and haven’t been able to work out a revised contract.  Kluber’s free agency is variable depending entirely on his health.  According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, he’s already been cleared for a normal offseason.  Kluber would fit well with a contender seeking a potential big-game pitcher, that won’t necessarily rely on him for innings.

Signed with Yankees for one year, $11MM.

32.  Yadier Molina – Cardinals.  One year, $10MM.  Molina, 38, is set to reach free agency for the first time in his storied 17-year career.  He’s not quite ready to hang up his catcher’s gear and see if Cooperstown might come calling; he’s hoping to play for two more years and expressed a willingness to test out the open market if he can’t get something done with the Cardinals.

Short of a pursuit of J.T. Realmuto, it’s difficult to see why the Cardinals would let Molina go after two rings, nine Gold Gloves, nine All-Star appearances, 2,001 hits, and over 16,000 innings caught.  For a player known mainly for his defense, Yadi has seven different seasons with a wRC+ above 100, including a peak of 132 from 2011-13.  Even now, he’s not far below the league average catcher mark of 92.  Molina remains an excellent defensive catcher and could be of interest to teams like the Yankees, Phillies, and Marlins if the Cardinals take a tough negotiating stance.

Signed with Cardinals for one year, $9MM.

33. Charlie Morton – Mets.  One year, $8MM.  Morton reaches free agency after having his $15MM club option declined by the Rays.  The righty, 37 in November, had been a useful starter for the Pirates but experienced a late-career surge upon joining the Astros in 2017.  With Houston, Morton’s average fastball velocity climbed up into the 95 mile per hour range, and his strikeout rate spiked.  After the Astros chose not to issue a qualifying offer, Morton signed a two-year, $30MM free agent deal with the Rays and continued dealing in 2019.  That year, he produced a 3.05 ERA in a career-best 194 2/3 innings, making his second All-Star team and finishing third in the AL Cy Young voting.  For pitchers with at least 500 innings from 2017-19, Morton’s 28.7 K% ranked seventh in MLB.

This year, Morton was removed from an August start due to shoulder inflammation and spent several weeks on the IL.  Even putting the two limited starts around that injury aside, Morton averaged fewer than five innings per start in 2020.  Despite solid peripherals, his ERA landed at 4.74 on the season, owed in part to a .355 BABIP.  He made an additional four starts in the playoffs this year, pitching well until the Dodgers got to him in Game 3 of the World Series.

Morton could be a hot commodity in free agency, but he was picky last time around and has suggested retirement is a possibility.

Signed with Braves for one year, $15MM.

34.  Jurickson Profar – Tigers.  One year, $7MM.  Profar brings the appeal of age and prospect pedigree.  28 in February, the Curacao native was widely considered the best prospect in baseball prior to the 2013 season. Putting him on the cover of their Prospect Handbook, Baseball America gushed, “Few prospects represent a safer bet to develop into a first-division regular and All-Star than Profar.”

Profar played around the infield in that 2013 season, and was expected to open 2014 as the Rangers’ starting second baseman after they had traded Ian Kinsler.  Instead, Profar wouldn’t appear in a Major League game again until May 2016, a gap of two years and eight months.  He suffered a torn shoulder muscle in March 2014, aggravating the injury in May.  After a platelet-rich plasma injection in September, Profar was expected to be ready for 2015.  However, by February 2015, labrum surgery was deemed necessary.

In 2018, for the first time, a 25-year-old Profar played a full season in the bigs.  He spent time at all four infield positions, posting a 107 wRC+ and career-best 2.8 WAR.  After the season, the Rangers shipped Profar to the A’s in a three-team deal.  Plugged in as the A’s regular second baseman, Profar managed a 105 wRC+ after a brutal first month.  His salary continuing to rise through arbitration, the A’s shipped Profar to San Diego in the offseason for a pair of prospects.  Padres GM A.J. Preller had familiarity with Profar from his time in charge of the Rangers’ Latin American scouting.

Profar started the 2020 season as the Padres’ second baseman, but was quickly supplanted by rookie Jake Cronenworth and moved to left field.  Profar’s streakiness at the plate continued, as he was terrible through August 10th and went on to post a 135 wRC+ in 146 plate appearances thereafter.  That run was the result of a .342 BABIP, with Statcast finding few positives in Profar’s season.

Profar may have been the game’s best prospect eight years ago, but now he’s a 110 wRC+ hitter in the best case and a man without a position.  Some teams might like the switch-hitter for a utility role, but he may be able to find a starting job on a second division club.  The Tigers, Twins, Cardinals, Cubs, Indians, Nationals, Red Sox, Royals, and Yankees could be options.

Signed with Padres for three years, $21MM with two opt-outs.

35.  Adam Wainwright – Cardinals.  One year, $6MM.  Wainwright, 39, joins fellow Cardinals legend Yadier Molina in free agency.  Drafted 29th overall by the Braves in 2000, Wainwright joined the Cardinals in the December 2003 J.D. Drew trade.  After a rookie season in relief culminating in what Derrick Goold called “the curve that froze New York,” Wainwright authored a seven-season stretch as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, despite being interrupted by Tommy John surgery in February 2011.  Despite the missed season, Wainwright ranked ninth among starting pitchers with 31.4 WAR from 2007-14.  He picked up plenty of hardware during that time, including three All-Star nods and four top-three Cy Young finishes.  Wainwright may fall short of the Hall of Fame, but not by a lot.

Wainwright has shown staying power in the second phase of his career despite missing most of 2018 due to an elbow injury.  He had a solid season in 2019 with 31 starts of 4.19 ball, and this year he ranked fourth in MLB with 6.52 innings per game started and 18th with a 3.15 ERA.  Wainwright would like to stay in St. Louis, and there’s no reason the Cardinals shouldn’t make it happen unless ownership’s budgetary restrictions are even tighter than we realize at the moment.

Signed with Cardinals for one year, $8MM.

36.  Robbie Ray – Brewers.  One year, $6MM.  Ray, a 29-year-old lefty, ranked sixth on my MLB Free Agent Power Rankings before the season, ahead of Marcus Stroman.  Needless to say, the abbreviated 2020 season did not go well for Ray.  He walked 20.1% of batters faced in his first seven starts for the Diamondbacks, continuing to struggle after being traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline.

A 12th round pick by the Nationals out of Brentwood High School in Tennessee in 2010, Ray was traded to the Tigers in December 2013 for Doug Fister.  He was on the move again a year later, joining the Diamondbacks in the three-team deal that netted the Shane Greene for the Tigers and Didi Gregorius for the Yankees.

Despite shaky control, Ray pitched well in Arizona.  From 2016-19, Ray struck out 30.8% of batters faced, fourth in MLB among those with at least 600 innings during that time.  He also walked 10.9% of batters faced – dead last among qualified MLB starters.  The result was a decent pitcher with flashes of brilliance, peaking with an All-Star 2017 season that netted Ray a seventh-place Cy Young finish.  Ray does allow his share of hard-hit balls, ranking in the bottom 8% in average exit velocity in four of his last six seasons.  He’s now an interesting free agent project, perhaps for a team with enough alternatives to not have to rely on him.

Signed with Blue Jays for one year, $8MM.

37.  Cesar Hernandez – Diamondbacks.  One year, $6MM.  Hernandez, 30, became the Phillies’ regular second baseman in July of 2015, replacing Chase Utley.  Hernandez proved a durable, solid replacement, ranking seventh among second basemen in 2016-17 with 6.4 WAR.  Hernandez’s bat slipped below league average in 2018-19, but he kept his job and played in all but two games during that period.  Due a raise on his $7.75MM salary, the Phillies chose to non-tender Hernandez after the 2019 season.

The Indians scooped Hernandez up for $6.25MM, and he rewarded them with a 108 wRC+ in 261 plate appearances.  Hernandez’s second base defense also graded well, resulting in a 1.9 WAR season that ranks fifth among all free agents.  He’s a high-contact hitter whose walk rate has dropped in the last two seasons, but he’s still able to get on base by hitting around .280.  Defensively, he’s strictly a second baseman.  If the Indians don’t retain him, the Diamondbacks, Angels, Athletics, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, and Yankees could be options.

Signed with Indians for one year, $5MM.

38.  Carlos Santana – Brewers.  One year, $6MM.  Santana, 35 in April, led the AL with 47 walks this year.  Otherwise, his batting average and power cratered, resulting in a career-worst 95 wRC+ in 255 plate appearances.  In 2019, Santana was one of the best first basemen in baseball, with 34 home runs, a 135 wRC+, and 4.4 WAR.  That performance resulted in his first All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger award, and even MVP votes.

Santana’s extensive body of work, primarily with the Indians, suggests there’s a solid possibility of a 110-120 wRC+ bounceback season in 2021.  The Brewers, Nationals, and Rockies could be potential fits.

Signed with Royals for two years, $17.5MM.

39.  Alex Colome – White Sox.  One year, $6MM.  Colome, 32 in December, has served as the closer for the White Sox for the past two seasons after coming over in a November 2018 trade with the Mariners.  It was an interesting season for Colome, who allowed just two earned runs in 22 1/3 innings despite striking out fewer than 18% of batters faced and walking nearly 9% of them.  His keys to success were allowing zero home runs and a .200 batting average on balls in play on the season.  Those figures are hardly repeatable, but Colome has an excellent 2020 Statcast profile in terms of exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel rate.

Colome has at times missed bats, including 31.4% of batters faced in an All-Star 2016 season for the Rays.  He demonstrated excellent control in that same campaign.  Colome has a 2.95 career ERA over 424 innings despite a SIERA of 3.85, so perhaps there’s weak contact for which he deserves credit.  That didn’t show up in Statcast in 2019, however, when his average exit velocity was in the bottom 2% of the league.  10 or 20 years ago, a closer coming off a 0.81 ERA season would do quite well in free agency.  These days, however, Colome doesn’t exactly have the profile teams like, so interest may be scattered.

Signed with Twins for one year, $6.25MM.

40.  Mike Minor – Angels.  One year, $6MM.  Minor, 33 in December, began his career with several solid seasons for the Braves before missing all of 2015 and ’16 due to shoulder surgery.  After a strong comeback season out of the Royals’ bullpen, Minor signed a three-year, $28MM deal with the Rangers and returned to a starting role.  Minor put up a strong pair of seasons in 2018-19, working to a 3.84 ERA in 365 1/3 innings.  He was a top-30 starter in baseball during that time, making his first All-Star team and finishing eighth in the Cy Young voting in ’19.

Minor lost two miles per hour off his fastball in 2020, however, and struggled to a 5.56 ERA for the Rangers and A’s.  Even with the reduced velocity, Minor was able to miss some bats with an above average 25.9 K%.  He’s also managed 71 starts since the beginning of 2018, a feat only five other free agent starters topped.  He’ll be a useful addition to the back end of a rotation.

Signed with Royals for two years, $18MM.

41.  J.A. Happ – Mariners.  One year, $6MM.  Happ, a 14-year MLB veteran, was drafted in the third round in 2004 out of Northwestern by the Phillies.  The lefty was something of a late bloomer, with his best work coming after age 32.  Happ, now 38, joined the Yankees in a July 2018 trade with the Blue Jays and inked a two-year, $34MM deal to stay there for 2019-20.

Happ’s Yankees contract included a vesting option at 165 innings or 27 starts in 2020, pro-rated to 10 starts or 61 1/3 innings due to the shortened season.  In comments to reporters in late August, Happ implied that he felt the Yankees were intentionally trying to avoid his vesting option.  GM Brian Cashman disagreed.  Regardless of the team’s intent, Happ wound up making nine starts on the season and has reached free agency.  Though he managed a 3.47 ERA this year, he has a 4.68 SIERA dating back to 2019, including a 1.79 HR/9 rate.  Happ’s All-Star 2018 season isn’t too far in the rearview, however, and he’ll make a solid back of the rotation piece.  His case is bolstered somewhat by Statcast, with 65th percentile hard hit rate and 75th percentile barrel rate this year.

Signed with Twins for one year, $8MM.

42.  Kirby Yates – Padres.  One year, $5MM.  Like Liam Hendriks, there was a time a few years ago where Yates making an All-Star team or getting Cy Young votes seemed highly unlikely.  Yates, 34 in March, was drafted by the Red Sox in the 26th round out of Kauai High School in Hawaii in 2005.  He opted not to sign, choosing to pitch at Yavapai College in Arizona.  He had Tommy John surgery while there, and ended up signing after college with the Rays as an undrafted free agent.

Five years later, Yates reached the Majors with the Rays at age 27.  After a rough 2015 season that saw him allow 10 home runs in 20 1/3 innings, Yates was designated for assignment in the offseason.  The Indians acquired him for cash considerations, but designated him for assignment about a month later.  Then the Yankees traded for him, and he posted a 5.23 ERA in 41 1/3 innings.  The Angels claimed him off waivers in October 2016, and after they designated him the following April, he went unclaimed by the other 29 teams.  He cracked the Halos’ 40-man for a brief period before being designated for assignment again, at which point the Padres claimed him off waivers.  That’s when things started to click.  Yates just kept getting better for the Padres, culminating in a dominant 2019 season: 1.19 ERA, 41 saves, 41.6 K%, and 5.3 BB%.  That season netted Yates an All-Star appearance and a ninth place finish in the Cy Young voting.

In August of this year, Yates hit the IL with elbow inflammation and ultimately had surgery to remove two bone chips.  While Yates was only able to pitch 4 1/3 innings this year, the surgery sounded relatively minor, and with a clean bill of health he’ll be a hot commodity on the free agent market.  The Giants, Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Twins, and White Sox could make sense if the Padres don’t retain him.

Signed with Blue Jays for one year, $5.5MM.

43.  Greg Holland – Mariners.  One years, $5MM.  Holland, 35 in November, had a dominant run for the 2011-14 Royals.  He posted a 1.86 ERA and 12.6 K/9 in 256 1/3 innings over those four seasons, making the All-Star team in 2013 and ’14 and finishing ninth in the Cy Young voting both years.  Though Holland was a huge part of the Royals’ success, his 2015 season ended with a UCL tear and he was not able to take part in the Royals’ championship run.  With 2016 lost to his Tommy John recovery, the Royals non-tendered Holland.  He signed a $7MM free agent deal with the Rockies heading into 2017.

Holland made the All-Star team and saved 41 games for those Rockies, declining both a $15MM player option and subsequent $17.4MM qualifying offer from Colorado.  The qualifying offer resulted in Holland taking a late March deal from the Cardinals in 2018 for $14MM.  After his late start to the season, Holland’s time with St. Louis was disastrous, and he was designated for assignment in July.  He hooked on with the Nationals, returning to form and resulting in a $3.25MM free agent deal with Arizona for 2019.  Holland walked a career-worst 15.8% of batters faced for the D’Backs as he lost the closer role in July and his average fastball velocity dropped all the way down to 91.6.  By August, Holland had been designated for assignment again, and he again signed with the Nats – this time failing to return to the Majors.

Holland made it back to the Royals for 2020, as the team also inked Trevor Rosenthal for a pair of savvy minor league signings.  Aside from an oblique strain, it was an excellent bounceback season for Holland as he struck out nearly 28% of batters faced and walked a career-best 6.3%.  He didn’t rate particularly well in Statcast measures, but Holland’s 2020 results and closer reputation may be enough for a two-year deal.

Signed with Royals for one year, $2.75MM.

44.  Drew Smyly – Giants.  One year, $5MM.  Smyly was a major piece of the return when the Rays sent David Price to Detroit at the 2014 trade deadline.  He made a career-high 30 starts in 2016, albeit with a 4.88 ERA. Smyly was dealt to the Mariners the following offseason and pitched in the World Baseball Classic, but he ended up needing Tommy John surgery in July that year and never pitched in an official game for Seattle. The Mariners cut him loose that winter and the Cubs inked him to a two-year, $10MM deal with an eye on rotation depth for 2019. Instead, the club picked up Cole Hamels’ option and shipped Smyly to the Rangers to save money, making the Cubs another team that employed Smyly but never used him on a Major League mound.

After going two and a half years between MLB starts, Smyly made his Rangers debut on April 1, 2019. His time in Texas went terribly, and they released him in late June. After a few appearances for the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate, Smyly hooked on with the Phillies and joined their rotation in late July. His dozen starts with the Phillies were good enough to net him a one-year, $4MM deal with the Giants.

Smyly made three appearances this year, then hit the IL for a strained left finger.  He returned over a month later to make four September outings.  We have only 26 1/3 innings to go on in total, but Smyly was able to strike out 37.8% of batters faced, 12th in MLB.  Over his past 89 innings, Smyly has worked to a 4.15 ERA with a 29.4 K%.  There may be something interesting here, though Statcast metrics from this year aren’t promising.  The 31-year-old southpaw should still draw solid interest in free agency.

Signed with Braves for one year, $11MM.

45.  Jon Lester – Braves.  One year, $5MM.  Lester, a 15-year veteran, comes with a long list of accolades.  From 2008-16, his 37.3 WAR ranked eighth in MLB.  He’s made five All-Star teams, and finished top four in the Cy Young voting three times.  Dependable as they come, Lester made at least 31 starts in every season from 2008-19.  He’s got three World Series rings – two with the Red Sox, one with the Cubs.

After a successful run in Boston to begin his career, the Red Sox traded Lester to the A’s with free agency approaching.  After that 2014 season, the Cubs signed him to a six-year, $155MM contract.  The Cubs got their money’s worth, having received 17.1 WAR from Lester.  More importantly, Lester provided a 2.02 ERA in 35 2/3 postseason innings in the Cubs’ championship run in 2016.

Though the Cubs paid a $10MM buyout on Lester’s $25MM option for 2021, they could certainly bring him back at a lower rate.  Otherwise, the Braves or Red Sox could be interesting options for the southpaw, who turns 37 in January.

Signed with Nationals for one year, $5MM.

46.  Rick Porcello – Tigers.  One year, $5MM.  Porcello, 32 in December, is a 12-year MLB veteran who has seen his share of ups and downs.  He took home the AL Cy Young award in 2016 for the Red Sox, yet has never made an All-Star team or topped 3.0 WAR in any other season.  He was on pace for over 4.5 WAR in 2020, finishing with a 1.7 mark that was second only to Trevor Bauer among free agent starting pitchers.   Of course, FanGraphs WAR is based on the Fielding Independent Pitching stat (FIP), which ignores the fact that Porcello allowed 11.3 hits per nine innings – third-worst among qualified starters.  The end result was a 5.64 ERA in 2020.

Porcello allowed a .373 batting average on balls in play over 59 innings, likely a fluke in that the Mets allowed a .316 BABIP overall, fourth-worst in MLB and Porcello has a career mark of .308.  To be fair, the 7.6 HR/fly-ball rate that led to the best home run rate of Porcello’s career was a fluke as well.  In the end, Porcello is a 4.30-type ERA guy who can take the ball every fifth day and avoid the free pass better than most.  The Phillies, Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, Rockies, and Tigers could make sense.

47.  Cole Hamels – Padres.  One year, $4MM.  From 2007-15, Hamels ranked sixth among all MLB pitchers with 39.3 WAR.  That period, mostly with the Phillies, included four top-eight Cy Young finishes and three All-Star appearances.  Hamels, 37 in December, continued to put in solid work in the second phase of his career with the Rangers and Cubs.  Until 2020, Hamels had started at least 24 games in 13 consecutive seasons.  He was good for a 3.92 ERA from 2017-19.

Upon reaching free agency last winter, Hamels sought a one-year deal with a contender and found it with an $18MM contract with Atlanta.  He irritated his shoulder in a February workout, but was expected to be ready once the season’s start was pushed to late July.  Instead, he came down with triceps tendinitis and started the year on the 45-day IL.  He returned for one 52-pitch start in mid-September, and then went on the IL again with shoulder fatigue.  Now, much like Kluber, Hamels’ free agency prospects hinge on his medical report.

48.  Mark Melancon – Braves.  One year, $4MM.  Melancon, 36 in March, was a ninth round pick of the Yankees out of the University of Arizona in 2006.  He headed to the Astros in the July 2010 Lance Berkman trade, establishing himself as a solid closer in 2011.  Melancon then joined the Red Sox in the December 2011 Jed Lowrie deal.  After a rough year in Boston, the Red Sox made a move for Joel Hanrahan, shipping Melancon to the Pirates.  Melancon had his greatest success in Pittsburgh, working to a 1.80 ERA over 260 1/3 innings with 130 saves in three-plus seasons while making the All-Star team three times.

The Nationals acquired Melancon near the 2016 trade deadline, sending Felipe Vazquez to the Pirates in return.  Melancon’s 30 games for the Nats went well, and he parlayed his success into a four-year, $62MM free agent deal with the Giants – a record for a reliever at the time.  The contract did not pan out for the Giants.  Melancon struggled in 2017, culminating in elbow surgery in September of that year.  Melancon pitched decently for the Giants after that, and San Francisco surprisingly found a team willing to take on the entire remainder of his contract in the Braves.

In his 43 2/3 innings with Atlanta, Melancon managed a 3.30 ERA, 20.7 K%, 4.9 BB%, and 61.4% groundball rate.  Groundballs are Melancon’s calling card, as he’s second among MLB relievers since 2019 in that regard.  He misses fewer bats than the average reliever, and he’s never lit up the radar gun.  Batters do struggle to square him up, based on Statcast, and a two-year deal is possible.

Signed with Padres for one year, $3MM.

49.  Anthony Desclafani – Red Sox.  One year, $4MM.  DeSclafani, 31 in April, was a sixth round pick of the Blue Jays out of the University of Florida in 2011.  They shipped him to the Marlins in November 2012 in Miami’s big Mark Buehrle-Josh Johnson-Jose Reyes-John Buck salary dump trade.  Two years later, DeSclafani headed to the Reds in a trade for Mat Latos.

DeSclafani won a rotation job for the Reds out of camp in 2015, producing 31 starts of 4.05 ERA ball on the season.  He opened the following season with a long IL stint for an oblique strain, debuting on June 10th and putting up a 3.28 ERA in 20 starts.  DeSclafani was diagnosed with a UCL sprain in March of 2017 and wound up missing the entire season.  He started off 2018 with another oblique strain, again delaying his debut until June.

In 2019, DeSclafani was able to avoid the IL, resulting in his best season since 2015.  Though prone to the longball, DeSclafani posted a career-best 24% K rate with his typical strong control.  But like many pitchers toward the back end of this list, 2020 wound up a lost season for DeSclafani.  He opened the season on the IL with a mild right teres major strain and struggled all season, getting bumped from the rotation in September and left off the Reds’ roster for the Wild Card Series.  One thing that did not suffer was DeSclafani’s velocity, a career-best 94.9 miles per hour in 2020.  He’ll serve as a solid reclamation project for 2021.

Signed with Giants for one year, $6MM.

50.  Chris Archer – Cubs.  One year, $4MM.  Archer had a strong run of five-plus seasons for the Rays.  He tantalized with a fifth-place Cy Young finish in 2015 as a 26-year-old, but his results never quite matched his peripheral stats in the ensuing seasons.  At the 2018 trade deadline, the Rays sent Archer to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz, a lopsided deal that may live in infamy.  For the Pirates, Archer delivered 172 innings of 4.92 ball, missing all of 2020 due to June surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.   Even at age 32, Archer is a starting pitcher teams can dream on a little bit if his recovery goes well.

Signed with Rays for one year, $6.5MM.

Honorable mentions:

• Shane Greene
• Jake McGee – signed with Giants for two years, $7MM
• Matt Moore – signed with Phillies for one year, $3MM
• Jonathan Schoop – signed with Tigers for one year, $4.5MM
• Jeremy Jeffress – signed minor league deal with Nationals
• Robbie Grossman – signed with Tigers for two years, $10MM
• Kevin Pillar – signed with Mets for one year, $5MM
• Adam Eaton – signed with White Sox for one year, $7MM
• Brett Gardner – signed with Yankees for one year, $4MM
• Martin Perez – signed with Red Sox for one year, $5MM
• Jonathan Villar – signed with Mets for one year, $3.55MM
• Brad Miller – signed with Phillies for one year, $3.5MM
• Joakim Soria – signed with Diamondbacks for one year, $3.5MM
• Darren O’Day – signed with Yankees for one year, $2.5MM
• Brandon Kintzler  – signed minor league deal with Phillies
• Tomoyuki Sugano – signed with Yomiuri Giants for four years, $40MM

Notable deals for unlisted/non-tendered players:

• Enrique Hernandez – signed with Red Sox for two years, $14MM
• Pedro Baez – signed with Astros for two years, $12.5MM
• Kyle Schwarber – signed with Nationals for one year, $10MM
• Eddie Rosario – signed with Indians for one year, $8MM
• Ken Giles – signed with Mariners for two years, $7MM
• Kohei Arihara – signed with Rangers for two years, $6.2MM
• Jake Arrieta – signed with Cubs for one year, $6MM
• Archie Bradley – signed with Phillies for one year, $6MM
• Anthony Bass – signed with Marlins for two years, $5MM
• Adam Duvall – signed with Marlins for one year, $5MM

We realize that a Top 50 Free Agents list with one set of specific team predictions will leave some fanbases dissatisfied.  A few notes to keep in mind:

• Most teams will meet some needs through trades and free agents who fell short of this list.
• The Indians, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Rockies, and Royals did not end up with any free agents from this list. Certainly they might be in play on some of the more affordable names.
• With this list, we try to present one possible puzzle where everything could happen. Once we start to get picks wrong, it has a ripple effect.
• While some teams’ key needs have gone unaddressed, we wouldn’t recommend reading into it. There are plenty of potential big names on the trade market, including Francisco Lindor, Kris Bryant, and Lance Lynn.
• While we try to make spending capacity estimates for each of the 30 teams as part of this exercise, those change quickly with trades, non-tender decisions, and unexpected payroll changes.  Many teams will use the pandemic as a reason to slash payroll, but we don’t know the details of those plans yet.

This post was originally published on 11-2-20.

If you see any notable errors or omissions, please contact us.  The cutoffs for the list this winter are 25 plate appearances or 10 innings pitched in the Majors in 2020.

For information on the free agents who have already signed, use our free agent tracker tool.

Updated 3-16-21

Catchers

Tyler Flowers (35)
Rene Rivera (37)
Matt Wieters (35)

First Basemen

Matt Adams (32)
Logan Morrison (33)

Second Basemen

Daniel Descalso (34)
Logan Forsythe (34)
Addison Russell (27)
Neil Walker (35)

Shortstops

Addison Russell (27)

Third Basemen

Zack Cozart (35)
Jedd Gyorko (32)

Left Fielders

Jorge Bonifacio (27)

Center Fielders

None

Right Fielders

Jorge Bonifacio (27)
Ryan Braun (37)
Yasiel Puig (30)
Josh Reddick (34)

Designated Hitters

Matt Adams (32)
Ryan Braun (37)
Yoenis Cespedes (35)
Edwin Encarnacion (38)
Matt Kemp (36)
Logan Morrison (33)

Starting Pitchers

Homer Bailey (35)
Zack Godley (31)
Cole Hamels (37)
Mike Leake (33)
Rick Porcello (32)
Jeff Samardzija (36)
Anibal Sanchez (37)

Right-Handed Relievers

Shane Greene (32)
Juan Nicasio (34)
Roberto Osuna (26)
Brad Peacock (33)
AJ Ramos (34)
David Robertson (36)
Tyler Thornburg (32)
Edinson Volquez (37)

Left-Handed Relievers

None

The immediate aftermath of Game 6, however, focused equally on both the Dodgers’ triumph and the controversy surrounding Justin Turner’s positive COVID-19 test, which led to his removal in the eighth inning of last night’s game.  Much more will be written about Turner’s situation and MLB’s health protocols in the coming days and months, yet it serves as something of an ironic end to a season that will be forever defined by the coronavirus pandemic.

That same uncertainty over COVID-19 will spread into the offseason.  At the moment, Major League Baseball has little idea about how anything related to the 2021 season will proceed — how Spring Training will operate, when a new season will start, the length of said season (though a full 162-game schedule has been drafted), whether or not fans will be permitted to attend games, how the arbitration process will proceed, etc.  All these unknown factors will certainly impact how teams go about their normal offseason business, as it is widely expected that the large majority of clubs will look to limit or cut spending.  The threat of more labor unrest also hangs over the proceedings, as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2021 season.

Amidst it all, MLB Trade Rumors will continue to provide full coverage of all baseball news in the coming months.  Our projected arbitration numbers are already live, and our annual Top 50 Free Agents list and Free Agent Prediction contest are both expected to be posted early next week.  You can also follow our ongoing Offseason Outlook series for a team-by-team breakdown of what each club may look to do this winter.

Here is a list of notable dates to monitor for offseason business…

Today: The beginning of a five-day period where teams and players must decide whether to exercise or decline contract options and opt-out clauses for the 2021 season.  All eligible free agents are officially now “free agents,” though they cannot sign with anyone but their current team for five more days.

NOVEMBER 1: The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers (one-year, $18.9MM contracts) to eligible free agents, at 4pm CT.  Players issued qualifying offers then have ten days to decide on accepting or declining the QO.  For more on what this year’s qualifying offer market could look like, click here and here.

NOVEMBER 2: Free agency officially opens, five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

EARLY NOVEMBER: The GM Meetings take place, this year in virtual fashion rather than an in-person event for team general managers and front office staffers, as well as player agents.

NOVEMBER 20: Teams must finalize their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft on December.  Any draft-eligible players within an organization who aren’t on a 40-man roster can be selected in the Rule 5 by another team.

DECEMBER 2: The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.  A very large number of non-tenders are expected, as clubs look to save on payroll.

DECEMBER 6: The Winter Meetings are scheduled to take place in Dallas.  While no official word has been made, it is expected that the in-person Winter Meetings will be canceled, and some version of the event may take place online.

DECEMBER 10: The Rule 5 Draft.  Normally set for the final day of the Winter Meetings, the draft is expected to proceed as scheduled, just remotely.

JANUARY 15: The opening of the 2020-21 international signing period.  A new addition to the winter calendar, the international signing window was pushed back from its usual July 2 date due to the pandemic.  The 2020-21 signing period ends on December 15, 2021.  The 2021-22 int’l signing window also won’t begin on July 2, 2021, as that period has now been pushed to January 15, 2022-December 15, 2022.

JANUARY 15: The deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit their salary figures to the league, if a deal hasn’t been reached by this date.  Teams and players who can’t reach an agreement will go to an arbitration hearing to determine the player’s 2021 salary.  With teams increasingly deploying the “file and trial” strategy of using the arb deadline as a strict date for working out contracts, any unsettled arbitration situations by this point are likely to advance to a hearing, though teams and players can agree to a contract at any point prior to the hearing actually taking place (most hearings are held in February).

FEBRUARY 27: The first Spring Training games are scheduled to take place.  The actual opening of Spring Training camps should roughly begin two or three weeks prior, though that has yet to be determined.

APRIL 1: Opening Day

Top of the Class

• DJ LeMahieu (32): The American League batting champ is the cream of the crop at second base. Given his ability to slide anywhere in the infield, he’s about as valuable a commodity as can be found on the open market this winter. There will be widespread interest. Still, second base is his best position, and he’s easily the best player available in this spot. Don’t be surprised to see him sign somewhere with a need at the keystone – even returning to the Bronx. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances.

Potential Regulars

• Jonathan Villar (30): Villar split his time between the Marlins and Blue Jays in 2020, but he fell short of reproducing the solid effort from the year prior. Between the two stops, he slashed just .232/.301/.292 while receiving regular playing time. There are some rumblings that he’s a second-division kind of guy, and he may have to choose between playing every down for a mid-tier club, or accepting a utility spot for a contender. He’s a dirt dog who runs well and can handle any spot up the middle, including centerfield.
• Tommy La Stella (32): The A’s like La Stella and will likely try to bring him back. His ability to play second or third while posting professional at-bats and keeping the ball in play make him an appealing option league-wide, however. He’s also not likely to break the bank. He’ll not want to return to pinch-hitting duty, so a regular role will be a must – especially after a solid .281/.370/.449 effort between the Angels and A’s in 2020.
• Cesar Hernandez (31): Hernandez impressed in his lone season with the Indians. If the price is right, both sides might look for a repeat performance after the long-time Phillie slashed .283/.355/.408 with a league-leading 20 doubles across 261 plate appearances. After middling defensive numbers with the Phillies, he got good marks for his work at the keystone in 2020 (6 DRS, 3.8 UZR). Hernandez should have no problem finding a regular role somewhere.
• Jurickson Profar (28): Profar made good on his opportunity with the Padres, hitting .278/.343/.428 with 7 home runs across 202 plate appearances. He played more outfield than second base this season, but that was mostly a function of Jake Cronenworth’s breakout. Profar certainly enjoyed his time in San Diego, but his versatility could make him an asset on many teams. Where he suits up in 2021 should come down to price point.
• Jonathan Schoop (29): Schoop mashed in his first season with the Tigers: .278/.324/.475 with 8 home runs in 2020. He still handles himself well defensively at second, but he doesn’t bring the versatility of many players on this list.

Part-Time/Utility Players

• Enrique Hernandez (29): Kiké fits the mold of a number of players on this list, guys who can handle regular to semi-regular playing time while filling in all over the diamond. Hernandez has been the second-stringer to Chris Taylor in this role for the Dodgers, but he nonetheless gets somewhere between 200-500 at-bats per season, and they trust him in the postseason. He hit .230/.270/.410 in 2020, and if the Dodgers don’t return him to the roster, someone else will.
• Freddy Galvis (31): Galvis slashed .220/.308/.404 across 159 plate appearances in his second season with the Reds. He can play both spots up the middle, and the switch-hitter does just enough at the plate to remain a viable option for everyday at-bats.
• Jason Kipnis (34): The long-term Cleveland Indian saw regular playing time with the Cubs in 2020, slashing .237/.341/.404. He did just enough to keep getting the call at the 9-spot in the order, but he’s probably best utilized in a heavy timeshare.
• Asdrubal Cabrera (35): MLBTR’s Steve Adams said it best when previewing the market for third baseman: “Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.”
• Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a decent run with the Nationals in 2020 after the Phillies cut him loose. He hit .278/.352/.418 across 91 plate appearances while making a good impression on manager Davey Martinez. He runs well enough and plays everywhere except shortstop and catcher. Don’t be surprised to see the Nationals bring him back in 2021.
• Brock Holt (32): Likewise, Holt impressed with the Nats after a disastrous turn to start the year with the Brewers. Not only did he hit .262/.314/.354 across 70 plate appearances in Washington, but he rocked a mustache and made two appearances on the mound.
• Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez spent the past two seasons with the Twins, slashing .248/.311/.387. He maintains the ability to play everywhere, though he made just one appearance at shortstop over his two seasons in Minnesota.
• Adeiny Hechavarria (32): The defensive wizard appeared in 27 games for the Braves this year, slashing .254/.302/.305. He hasn’t been in consideration for postseason action. His value on this list lies in his ability to play a competent defensive shortstop.
• Chris Owings (29): Owings got 44 plate appearances with the Rockies this year and held his own, hitting .268/.318/.439. His value comes in his versatility, however. Despite only appearing in 17 games, Owings spent time at every position except pitcher and catcher, even pinch-hitting three times and pinch-running twice.
• Neil Walker (35): Walker was a semi-regular as recently as 2019 for the Marlins and 2018 with the Yankees. In 2020, however, he appeared in just 18 games, slashing .231/.244/.308 with the Phillies. Defense has never been his forte, but he can handle a glove at first, second, or third, while even taking an occasional turn in the outfield.
• Jed Lowrie (37): Lowrie’s disastrous tenure with the Mets ended with just 8 plate appearances in two years. If the long-time veteran can get healthy, someone will give him a look, but that’s a big if.
• Logan Forsythe (34): Forsythe’s best days are behind him. He hit just .118 in very limited action this year for the Marlins, and it’s been a long time since he glory days in Tampa. Still, he provides a good eye at the plate and enough positional versatility to get a look somewhere as a non-roster invitee.
• Joe Panik (30): Panik’s days as a regular at the keystone are probably over. He hit .225/.340/.300 across 141 plate appearances with the Blue Jays in 2020 while moving between second, third, and short. That’s his role moving forward, but the playing time he received in 2020 extrapolates to 380 plate appearances in a full season – I’ll take the under on that number moving forward.

Players with 2021 Options

• Kolten Wong, $12.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (30): Wong doesn’t bring much in the way of power, but he puts together good at-bats and plays gold glove defense. He slashed .265/.350/.326 in 2020, putting him somewhat on the bubble for 2021, but chances are the Cardinals find some way to bring him back.
• Daniel Descalso, $3.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (34): Descalso won’t have this option picked up, despite providing more-or-less exactly what the Cubs hoped from him in terms of clubhouse/veteran presence. On the diamond, however, Descalso missed all of 2020 after slashing just .173/.271/.250 over 194 plate appearances in 2019.
• Leury Garcia $3.5MM club option with a $250K buyout (30): This one could go either way. The White Sox love Garcia, and with Nick Madrigal coming back from injury, the ChiSox may prefer to bring back Garcia. He hit a palatable .271/.317/.441 across 63 plate appearances in 2020.
• Dee Strange-Gordon, $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout (33): The Mariners will buy out Strange-Gordon after another lackluster season at the plate (42 wRC+). Great speed and the ability to play the outfield should get him a look somewhere, perhaps even with a contender in the mold of Billy Hamilton.

The Easy Call: Trevor Bauer (Reds)

Bauer is the one slam-dunk candidate of the field, as the Reds will surely issue him a QO and Bauer will just as surely reject it as he looks for a richer contract.  Cincinnati would stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick if Bauer signed elsewhere, though the somewhat unique nature of Bauer’s free agent plans could impact that pick.  As a revenue-sharing team, the Reds’ compensatory pick would fall after the first round of the draft, but only if Bauer signs for more than $50MM.  If Bauer were to stick to his one-time plan of accepting a one-year contract with a very high average annual value, it’s possible such a deal might not crack the $50MM threshold — say, if Bauer took a one-year, $45MM pact.  In this scenario, the Reds’ pick would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, or roughly 35-40 picks under their placement if Bauer signed for more than $50MM.

Borderline Cases: Kevin Gausman (Giants), Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees), Marcus Stroman (Mets), Liam Hendriks (Athletics)

After a shaky 2019 season, Gausman was non-tendered by the Reds and ended up signing a one-year, $9MM with San Francisco.  The “pillow contract” strategy ended up working, as Gausman posted a strong year and is now positioned for a larger free agent payday.  On paper, it seems like Gausman a logical candidate to be issued a qualifying offer, though the situation may not quite be so clear cut — MLB.com’s Maria Guardado considers it “unlikely” that Gausman will get a QO.

Why would the Giants hesitate?  While the team would like to re-sign Gausman for 2021, the Giants may simply not value him at an $18.9MM price point, and could be concerned that Gausman would accept the qualifying offer.  There are some similarities between Gausman’s situation and the decision Jake Odorizzi faced last fall, as Odorizzi had also rebounded from an off-year in 2018 but chose to accept the Twins’ qualifying offer rather than test what he felt could be an unfriendly free agent market.  Given how the pandemic has lowered revenues all over baseball this year, it is quite possible Gausman has concerns about his own trip to free agency and might prefer to lock in $18.9MM right away.

To provide some sort of an idea about how much uncertainty surrounds the offseason player market, consider the range of contract predictions George A. King III of the New York Post collected from evaluators about what Tanaka could land this winter.  Tanaka has been solid-to-excellent over his seven years in the Bronx, is still relatively young (he turns 32 in November) and the Yankees certainly need pitching, so his QO case is another that would seem pretty straight-forward in a normal winter.

As much as the Yankees value Tanaka, if they think there’s a chance he could accept a qualifying offer, they could opt to not issue one if they feel they can re-sign him for less than an $18.9MM average annual value.  Every dollar may count for the Yankees, as there has been speculation that the Yankees could look to reset their luxury tax penalties by getting payroll under the $210MM tax threshold.

Stroman presents one of the strangest cases of any qualifying offer candidate ever, since he didn’t throw a pitch in 2020.  He began the season on the injured list due to a calf muscle tear, and then chose to opt out of playing altogether (after he had amassed enough service time to qualify for free agency).  Stroman has been vocal in the past about his desire for a long-term contract, but given the circumstances, such a deal could be hard to come by.

If Stroman is still adamant about landing a multi-year deal, it’s possible the Mets could issue a QO if they are pretty certain he’ll reject it.  If Stroman is now open to accepting a one-year deal to rebuild his value, the Mets probably won’t issue a qualifying offer…or would they?  In theory, Steve Cohen’s impending purchase of the franchise means more money could be available on payroll, so the Mets could be more open than most teams to an $18.9MM expenditure on a pitcher they were counting on as a staple of their rotation.  Further complicating the matter, however, is the fact that teams only have until five days after the World Series to issue qualifying offers, and Cohen might not be officially approved as the Mets’ new owner by that time.  That could leave current GM Brodie Van Wagenen in something of a holding pattern about big-picture decisions, particularly since Sandy Alderson has been tabbed to take over as the Mets’ chief decision-maker on baseball operations, and Van Wagenen could soon be out of a job.

As noted in our position player QO forecast, the Athletics also face a tough qualifying offer decision on shortstop Marcus Semien.  It isn’t likely that the A’s would be willing to pay any player $18.9MM per season, and if they did, they would surely be more comfortable giving that money to an everyday player like Semien rather than a reliever, even an ace reliever like Hendriks.

Hendriks posted good results from 2015-18 and has been flat-out dominant over the last two seasons.  Hendriks might be apt to reject a QO to see if he can translate his track record into a nice multi-year contract, but as a relief pitcher entering his age-32 season, Hendriks might be another player wary of what the market will bear.  Baseball Reference lists Hendriks’ career earnings as just under $12.5MM, so accepting the qualifying offer would itself count as a massive payday.

Probably Not: Alex Colome (White Sox)

The White Sox don’t have the same payroll limitations as Oakland, though they are also unlikely to risk paying a closer $18.9MM.  Colome has been tremendous over his two seasons in Chicago, even if advanced metrics aren’t quite as pleased with his grounder-heavy arsenal and relative lack of strikeouts (though Colome induces a lot of soft contact).  Colome is also turning 32 this winter and the White Sox have several potential closers in waiting, so they could prefer to spend their available payroll space on more pressing needs like starting pitching or another outfield bat.

Will that squeeze extend to the very top of the market?  We did see Mookie Betts and the Dodgers agree to a massive extension, so there’s evidence teams are still willing to break the bank for superstar-level talent.  Betts was rather a unique case, of course, and negotiating an extension is different than negotiating a free agent deal.  Even the old mantra of “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal” might not necessarily apply this winter, as while there are certainly some players teams would love to have back for $18.9MM, a lot of clubs might hesitate at even making that kind of potential investment on anything less than a surefire star.

From a player’s perspective, a guaranteed $18.9MM might be preferable to testing an uncertain open market.  This has been the reasoning for many free agents who chose to accept qualifying offers in the past, and that was during more normal offseasons.  It makes for a tough decision for many players, who have worked their whole careers to get a chance at free agency only to see their opportunity come in the wake of a pandemic.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently published a refresher on how the qualifying offer system works, including the key details about draft pick compensation and how the QO is a one-time application.  For the latter, this is why major free agents like Marcell Ozuna and Nelson Cruz aren’t included in this list, as both players have been tagged with the QO in past trips through the free agent market.

This post will focus on the position players who could be plausible candidates to receive qualifying offers…

Easy Calls: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), George Springer (Astros), DJ LeMahieu (Yankees)

Along with Reds ace Trevor Bauer, these are the clear-cut stars of the 2020-21 free agent class.  All will receive qualifying offers from their respective teams, and all will reject the offers since lucrative long-term contracts surely await on the open market.

Of the players who could become free agents if their teams decline their 2021 club options, Anthony Rizzo seems like the only reasonable QO candidate, but the Cubs are almost a lock to exercise their $16.5MM option on his services.

Leaning Towards Yes: Didi Gregorius (Phillies)

There was speculation last winter that Gregorius might get issued a qualifying offer from the Yankees, but New York let him cleanly walk away into free agency and the shortstop inked a one-year, $14MM deal with Philadelphia.  Gregorius was coming off an injury-shortened 2019 season and, though he and his representatives had some multi-year offers on the table, chose the one-year deal so he could rebuild his value and quickly re-enter free agency in search of a richer multi-year contract.  The bounce-back did happen, as Gregorius hit .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs over 237 PA and played in all 60 of the Phillies’ game.

The only thing that makes Gregorius less than a QO lock is the question about how much the Phillies are willing or able to spend next season.  With so many roster needs to address, and the possible need to save as much money as possible to bid on Realmuto, the Phillies might not want to risk a qualifying offer for Gregorius if they think he will accept.  Going by Gregorius’ strategy last winter, however, it would seem unusual to see him take the short-term pillow contract for 2020, have his desired comeback year, and then take another one-year contract in the form of a qualifying offer.  If Gregorius only signs for one year, he would then face heavy competition next winter when so many star shortstops will hit free agency after the 2021 season.

All this to be said, Gregorius seems less likely to accept a qualifying offer, so the Phils can probably feel safe in issuing the QO and lining themselves up for draft pick compensation if Gregorius leaves.  There’s enough uncertainty here that I couldn’t make Gregorius an “easy call,” though there’s more evidence he might get a qualifying offer than the likes of…

Borderline Cases: Marcus Semien (Athletics), Michael Brantley (Astros)

For an Athletics team that has long relied on refreshing its system with young talent, it would be a tough blow to let Semien sign elsewhere and not even receive a draft pick in return.  Yet, the A’s find themselves in a difficult decision given that Semien’s production dropped off significantly in 2020.  He hit .223/.305/.374 with seven homers over 236 plate appearances, a far cry from his MVP-esque numbers in 2019.

That 2019 campaign remains the only true superstar-caliber year of Semien’s career, as he has otherwise been a steady player who provides solid pop for a shortstop and has worked hard to go from being a defensive question mark to a good defender.  If Semien had been a free agent last winter, he certainly would have been looking at a nine-figure contract.  This winter, however, there’s certainly a case to be made that he might accept a qualifying offer in the hopes of better numbers in 2021.

Even under non-pandemic circumstances, the A’s have never extended their payroll to spend $18.9MM on a single player.  Given the possibility that Semien could accept a QO, it’s tough seeing Oakland taking that risk, especially when they have a similar qualifying offer choice to make with another notable free agent in Liam Hendriks.

Brantley has continued to mash through his age-33 season (.300/.364/.476 in 187 PA) and throughout Houston’s playoff run.  This was despite battling quad problems for much of the season, and while there are questions about how much longer Brantley can hold up as a regular outfielder, he is still a very solid defensive left fielder when he plays on the grass.  There’s a lot to like about Brantley’s chances of being a future contributor, so why is he a borderline QO case?

In short, Brantley might be the kind of veteran player who gets squeezed in an offseason where every free agent dollar will be heavily scrutinized.  Teams will focus on Brantley’s age (he turns 34 in February), injury history, and lackluster hard-hit ball data as reasons to avoid paying him big money, while secretly hoping his price tag drops low enough to be signed at a bargain rate.  It’s possible the Astros could use these marks in Brantley’s “cons” column as a reason to extend a qualifying offer — if Brantley also has draft pick compensation attached to his services, it could further dampen his market and allow the Astros a better chance at re-signing him for less than $18.9MM in average annual value.  That said, if Brantley and his agents see a tough market coming, they could choose to accept the QO if Houston issues one.

The Astros also face a difficult payroll situation in 2021.  $137.75MM has already been committed to eight players, one whom (Justin Verlander) is a non-factor due to Tommy John surgery.  A big arbitration class could be trimmed by some non-tenders, but that still leaves the likes of Carlos Correa or Lance McCullers Jr. in line for significant raises.  Adding Brantley at $18.9MM might be an added expenditure the team isn’t willing to make, especially if the Astros still have designs on re-signing Springer.

Probably Not: Andrelton Simmons (Angels)

We’ll end with yet another shortstop, arguably the best defensive shortstop (or player?) of all time.  However, Simmons’ glovework actually seemed mortal in 2020 — he had a minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved and -1 Outs Above Average over 265 1/3 innings, though he was hampered by an ankle sprain that led to an injured list stint.

Simmons turned 31 in September and hit decently well (.297/.346/.356) over 127 plate appearances, though he only played in 30 games due to his IL trip and his decision to opt out of the season’s final five games.  He might be apt to accept a qualifying offer under those circumstances, and the Angels aren’t likely to extend one since they have a shortstop replacement on hand in David Fletcher, and would probably prefer to put $18.9MM towards fixing the struggling rotation.

We’ll also place Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos in the “probably not” category, as Castellanos can become a free agent if he opts out of the three years and $48MM remaining on his contract.  However, it is very doubtful Castellanos exercises that clause to become a free agent again, as he only hit .222/.298/.486 with 14 homers in 242 PA in 2020.

Top of the Class

• DJ LeMahieu (32): LeMahieu went a half decade between his 2014 appearance at third base with the Rockies and last year’s return to the position (on a part-time basis). He’s still only played 487 innings there over the past two seasons, but the way LeMahieu’s bat has exploded in the Bronx, a team would surely be comfortable moving him off his best position, second base, in order to get his bat in the lineup. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances. He’s also regarded as a plus defender at second base and has experience at first base and shortstop as well.
• Justin Turner (36): Turner will be 36 in November, but he just keeps on raking at the plate. He posted a 140 wRC+ in 2020, slashing .307/.400/.450 in 175 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ he’s been at least 32 percent better than a league-average hitter in all but one season since 2014 — he was “only” 23 percent better in 2016 — and he carries an overall .302/.382/.503 slash in more than 3000 plate appearances since landing in Los Angeles. Durability is something of a concern, and Turner’s once-excellent glovework has begun to deteriorate, but he’s still an outstanding offensive player. Age probably limits him to a short-term deal, which will actually be seen as a perk for some interested parties.

Potential Regulars

• Tommy La Stella (32): La Stella has gone from light-hitting Cubs utilityman to an above-average hitter who teams might be willing to try as a regular at multiple positions. Since Opening Day 2019, he’s taken 549 plate appearances and delivered a .289/.356/.471 batting line while playing his home games in pitcher-friendly settings. That’s good for a 125 wRC+. La Stella isn’t a top-notch defender, but he can handle second and third base. He’s a much better hitter against righties, but La Stella did hold his own against southpaws in 2019.
• Jake Lamb (30): Multiple shoulder injuries relegated Lamb to “reclamation project” status when the D-backs released him this summer, but he immediately bounced back with the A’s. It was only 49 plate appearances, but Lamb looked like his old self, slashing .267/.327/.556 with three big flies in 49 plate appearances. At the very least, that showing could earn him a one-year, make-good deal that he can try to use as a launching pad into a multi-year pact next winter. Lamb can play either corner infield spot, although he fits best on a team who can give him a right-handed-hitting platoon partner.

Part-Time/Utility Players

• Ehire Adrianza (31): Adrianza was a solid utility piece for the Twins from 2017-19, but his bat cratered in 2020 when he hit .191/.287/.270 in 101 plate appearances. The bat has never been great, but he’s played everywhere except center field and catcher with Minnesota (including two innings on the mound).
• Asdrubal Cabrera (35): Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.
• Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez hit well after a slow start with the 2019 Twins, but he never got into a groove in 2020. The veteran utilityman can play any of the four infield spots and both outfield corners, but he has rather unsurprisingly never replicated his 2017 season with the Astros.
• Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a nice 91-plate appearance run with the Nats in 2020, hitting .278/.352/.418. He’s been inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, but Harrison has a mostly solid track record and can play all over the diamond.
• Adeiny Hechavarria (32): A glove-first utility option who can pick it at shortstop, second base or third base, Hechavarria hit .254/.302/.305 in 63 plate appearances with the 2020 Braves and is a lifetime .253/.291/.351 hitter.
• Brock Holt (33): The 2020 season was a nightmare for the versatile Holt. He looked like an underappreciated free agent last winter despite a .286/.366/.407 slash from 2018-19, and this year’s .211/.283/.274 output won’t help his cause.
• Brad Miller (31): Miller can play all four infield spots and either outfield corner. He hit well in 2020 and owns a combined .247/.329/.468 line in 595 plate appearances dating back to 2018. He’s slugged 27 homers and doubles apiece in that time, tacking on four triples.
• Joe Panik (30): Panik is a lifetime .269/.334/.380 hitter with a good glove at multiple infield spots, but his big 2015 season with the Giants looks like a clear outlier. Since he wrapped up that stellar campaign, he’s turned in a combined .255/.324/.366 slash in 2123 plate appearances. Injuries have played a part, but at this point he’s a glove-first utility player.

Players with 2021 Options

• Todd Frazier, $5.75MM club option with $1.5MM buyout (35): It’s hard to see the Mets picking up the Toddfather’s option after he hit .236/.302/.382 between Texas and New York in 2020.
• Jedd Gyorko, $4.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (32): Gyorko can play all four infield spots and batted .248/.333/.504 with nine homers with the Brewers. His option would seem likely to be picked up in a normal winter, but the Brewers made some surprising option decisions a year ago. With revenue losses throughout the league and several players expected to be non-tendered, Milwaukee might feel a similar skill set can be found more affordably.
• Eric Sogard, $4.5MM club option with $500K buyout (35): The Brewers aren’t going to pick this up after Sogard hit just .209/.281/.278 in his return to Milwaukee. Sogard had a very nice 2019 campaign between Toronto and Tampa Bay, but he looks like a rebound candidate again.

Everyday Shortstops

• Marcus Semien (30): It has only been a year since Semien was a superstar-level producer, as the A’s shortstop posted 7.6 fWAR in 2019. This regular season didn’t go nearly as well for Semien, though, considering he wound up with a .223/.305/.374 line (good for a wRC+ of 91 – down 46 points from his previous figure) and seven home runs over 237 trips to the plate. Semien’s Statcast numbers, including an expected weighted on-base average that tumbled from .367 to .274, also plummeted. It’s now up in the air whether the low-budget A’s will issue Semien a qualifying offer once the season ends. It’s tough to believe it has even become a question for someone who was coming off an MVP-type campaign around 12 months ago.
• Didi Gregorius (31): Gregorius starred as a Yankee for much of his Bronx tenure from 2015-19, but he underwent Tommy John surgery before the last of those seasons and missed significant time as a result. Sir Didi also saw his production fall off a cliff when he was healthy enough to play, but after signing a one-year, $14MM contract with the Phillies last winter, he got back on track. Gregorius slashed .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs in 237 plate appearances as a Phillie, and he struck out in a mere 11.8 percent of PA. He’ll be a QO candidate before a potential trip to the market.
• Andrelton Simmons (31): Left ankle problems have weighed down the defensive virtuoso since 2019, when he also struggled at the plate. But, despite not finishing with a single home run, Simmons rebounded this year with 127 plate appearances of .297/.346/.356 hitting. The Angels will now have to decide whether to hand a QO to Simmons, who was a five-fWAR player as recently as 2018.

Utility Types

• Freddy Galvis (31): He’s not the most exciting option, but a team could certainly do worse than Galvis. The versatile infielder, who has tons of experience at short and second, turned in another passable regular season at the plate in 2020. The switch-hitting Galvis concluded with a line of .220/.308/.404 and seven HRs across 159 PA. He has recorded a wRC+ of at least 85 three times in a row.
• Ehire Adrianza (31): Adrianza gave the Twins league-average production on offense a season ago, but he struggled mightily this year, hitting .191/.287/.270 without a home run in 110 PA. He’s not about to hit free agency at an ideal time, then, though that could make the multi-positional Adrianza an intriguing buy-low candidate for many teams.
• Eric Sogard (35): Like Adrianza, Sogard had a very fine 2019. Sogard signed with the Brewers for $4.5MM after that, but everything went south from there. Along with hitting a woeful .209/281/.278 with one HR across 128 PA, Sogard’s xwOBA dove from .342 to .250 in a one-year span.

Club Option Decisions

• Jose Iglesias (31): Typically known as a slick fielder with an unimposing bat, Iglesias went wild at the plate this year as a member of the Orioles, winding up with a .373/.400/.556 mark and three homers in 150 PA. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about that performance, including a .407 batting average on balls in play that checks in 99 points above his lifetime BABIP, but Iglesias should still be a useful player in 2021 even if his offense returns to its previous form. Therefore, for $3.5MM (compared to a $500K buyout), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the O’s exercise their option over Iglesias.

Recent Regulars

As a qualifier, there’s no clear, healthy, starting-caliber first baseman coming off a strong season in this year’s class. Due to the lack of a defined “top of the market” option, the top tier on this breakdown will simply be the few guys who have received regular reps in recent years — even if they’re all rebound candidates for one reason or another at this point.

• C.J. Cron (31): Cron mashed four quick taters to open the season before a knee injury required surgery and ended his campaign after just 13 games. From 2018-19 between the Rays and Twins, Cron batted .253/.317/.482 with 55 round-trippers in 1059 plate appearances. There’s obvious power here, and at his best, the right-handed-hitting Cron can flat-out decimate lefties while holding his own against righties. Knee surgery was a bad break, but he’s relatively young and could still be a starting first baseman if his recovery goes well.
• Yuli Gurriel (37): Gurriel hit .298/.343/.541 through 612 plate appearances in 2019 and then faceplanted with a .232/.274/.384 slash through 230 trips to the plate in 2020. He’ll face questions about his poor 2020 season, his age and his ties to the Astros’ 2017 scandal in free agency this winter as he searches for a new club. Gurriel was a superstar in Cuba and quite productive in MLB up until the current campaign. He can also play some third base and second base, though he was exclusively a first baseman/designated hitter in 2020.
• Jake Lamb (30): Shoulder injuries destroyed the end of Lamb’s career in Arizona, but he’s looked good since being released and latching on with the A’s. Lamb hit .267/.327/.556 with four homers in 49 Oakland plate appearances, although that showing still only boosted his overall 2020 line to .196/.283/.352. Lamb swatted 59 homers as the D-backs’ everyday third baseman in 2016-17 before his shoulder troubles set in. If he’s healthy, he’s young enough to reestablish himself as an everyday option at either corner infield spot. He’ll hope for a deep postseason run to continue his turnaround at the dish.
• Justin Smoak (34): The switch-hitting Smoak was better than his low batting average made it seem at first glance in 2019, but his strikeout rate rose by 10 percent in a disastrous Brewers showing in 2020. Smoak went hitless in a brief three-game look with the Giants after being released. From 2017-19, the big slugger hit .243/.350/.470 for Toronto, but this year’s woeful .176/.250/.361 batting line won’t do him many favors in free agency.
• Ryan Zimmerman (36): Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season but made clear that he intends to play again in 2021. A persistent case of plantar fasciitis torpedoed his 2019 season and limited him to just 52 games, but Zimmerman mashed at a .289/.350/.542 clip in 899 plate appearances from 2017-18. It’s hard to envision “Mr. National” playing anywhere other than D.C. A low-cost Nationals reunion certainly makes sense.

Utility Players and Platoon Bats

• Matt Adams (32): Adams has never been able to hit lefties well, but his output against righties cratered in this year’s small sample as well (.152/.188/.261 in 48 plate appearances). He could land another minor league deal as a bench bat.
• Asdrubal Cabrera (35): Cabrera played a career-high 198 2/3 innings at first base this year, hitting .242/.305/.447 with eight dingers. He’s not a shortstop anymore, but the switch-hitter can still handle first, second and third base while providing average or better offense.
• Derek Dietrich (31): Dietrich’s transformation into a three-true-outcomes slugger continued in 2020. He hit .197/.347/.459 and saw just over half of his 75 plate appearances end with a home run (eight), walk (nine) or strikeout (21). He can also play second base, third base and the outfield corners.
• Brad Miller (31): Miller has experience at all four infield spots and in the outfield corners. He’s struggled with consistency, but he hit well in 2020 and owns a combined .247/.329/.468 line in 595 plate appearances dating back to 2018. He’s slugged 27 homers and doubles apiece in that time, tacking on four triples.
• Logan Morrison (33): LoMo rode big Spring Training and Summer Camp performances to a spot on the Brewers’ roster, but he struggled immensely through nine games in the Majors. Morrison bashed 38 home runs with the 2017 Rays, but a torn labrum in his hip wrecked his 2018 season with the Twins. He has yet to bounce back.
• Pablo Sandoval (34): The Panda revived his career with a quality 2018-19 showing in his return to the Giants, but the 2020 season was a disaster. The Braves rather stunningly added him to the roster in advance of the postseason, so perhaps he’ll get a late chance at showing some life. A minor league deal still seems likeliest.
• Neil Walker (35): Walker beat out several other veterans to win a bench spot in Philadelphia, but he hit .231/.244/.308 before he was cut loose earlier this month. The switch-hitter can handle all four corner spots and second base but is sure to be viewed as a bench piece if he keeps playing.

Players with 2021 Options

• Edwin Encarnacion, $12MM club option: Encarnacion was a lock for 30-plus homers from 2012-19 and belted 10 dingers in 2020 — maintaining a 30-homer pace. Unfortunately, he did so while batting just .157/.250/.377 on the whole. This year’s 29.8 percent strikeout rate was the worst of his career by a whopping seven percent. He’ll turn 38 in January.
• Todd Frazier, $5.75MM club option with $1.5MM buyout: The 2020 season was the worst of Frazier’s career at the plate, as he followed up a solid 2019 output with a lowly .236/.302/.382 slash. Frazier can play either corner infield spot and will turn 35 in February.
• Jedd Gyorko, $4.5MM club option with $1MM buyout: Gyorko, who turned 32 earlier this month, hit .248/.333/.504 with nine homers while logging more than 200 innings at first base. He can play all over the infield. His option would seem likely to be picked up in a normal winter, but the Brewers made some surprising option decisions a year ago, and with revenue losses throughout the league, perhaps they’ll feel that a similar skill set will be available more affordably elsewhere on the market. Many utility bats will be non-tendered or cut loose in the coming months.
• Howie Kendrick, $6.5MM mutual option with $2.25MM buyout: The 37-year-old Kendrick hit just .275/.320/.385 in 100 plate appearances with the Nats this year and voiced uncertainty about his future this weekend. It’s hard to see the Nats paying that price with Zimmerman also eyeing a comeback.
• Mitch Moreland, $3MM club option with $500K buyout: The 35-year-old raked with the Red Sox but saw his bat collapse upon a trade to the Padres, for whom he’s posted a dismal .203/.247/.362 slash in 73 plate appearances. It’s still a cheap price, and the Padres gave up some minor league talent to get Moreland, so perhaps he’s still in the 2021 plans.
• Daniel Murphy, $12MM mutual option with $6MM buyout: Huge buyout notwithstanding, the Rox probably won’t have much to think about here. The 35-year-old Murphy hit .236/.275/.333 in 132 trips to the plate in 2020, bringing his Rockies total to .269/.316/.426. That’s 23 percent worse than league average after weighting for his home park, per wRC+ (77).
• Anthony Rizzo, $14.5MM club option with $2MM buyout: It wasn’t a great season for Rizzo, whose .222 average was a career-low, but he kept getting on base and hitting for power. Rizzo popped up at a career-high rate and saw his exit velocity dip, but a correction on this year’s .218 BABIP still seems likely. It’d be a shock to see his option bought out, even coming off a down year at the plate.
• Carlos Santana, $17.5MM club option with $500K buyout: Santana has never walked at a clip better than this year’s 18.4 percent in a full season, but his power dropped to a career-low as well (.150 ISO). The $17MM net value would be steep for the Indians even if Santana had posted a terrific year, but this year’s .199/.349/.350 slash simplifies the decision.
• Eric Thames, $4MM mutual option with $1MM buyout: Thames mashed his way through a three-year stint with the Brewers in his return from a star turn in the KBO, but he hit just .203/.300/.317 in 140 plate appearances with the Nats this year. He’s likely to return to the market. His ability to play the outfield could help him a bit.

Let’s check in on where things stand on a position-by-position basis right now, beginning with this winter’s available catchers. (Players’ age for the 2021 season is listed in parentheses.)

Top of the Class

• J.T. Realmuto (30): As has long been apparent, Realmuto stands alone atop this year’s crop of catchers. He’s been arguably the best all-around catcher in baseball over the past several seasons, and his stock has been elevated to new heights with a .272/.355/.512 slash and 11 homers in 183 plate appearances. He was hobbled by some hip problems recently but is 4-for-12 since returning this week. Realmuto’s bat has been 32 percent better than that of a league-average hitter, per wRC+. Given that the average catcher is 13 percent worse than a league-average hitter by that same measure, his offense is particularly valuable. Realmuto is also a premier defender and even ranks in the 85th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, per Statcast. It’d be a surprise if he didn’t command a deal worth well north of $100MM.

Other Everyday Options (based on 2020 playing time)

• James McCann (31): McCann got out to a blistering start in 2019 before his production cratered, but he’s raking again in this year’s shortened slate. Through 107 plate appearances, McCann has batted .274/.336/.495, which brings his White Sox total to .273/.330/.466 with 24 homers in 583 plate appearances. There’s some pretty good fortune on balls in play to consider (.354 BABIP), and he’s still prone to strikeouts, but McCann has emerged as an above-average offensive backstop. His framing numbers are up this year, and he’s maintained a strong caught-stealing rate.
• Yadier Molina (38): The Cardinals icon opened some eyes earlier this year when he said he planned to continue playing whether in St. Louis or elsewhere — a departure from his previous “Cardinals or bust” mentality — but it’s hard to envision him playing anywhere else. He won’t command another $20MM salary, not with a .272/.310/.375 line through 146 plate appearances, but it sounds as though he plans to continue playing.
• Austin Romine (32): After years as a backup in the Bronx, Romine got a shot as the primary catching option in Detroit. The Tigers likely hoped that last year’s .281/.310/.439 slash was pointing to better days ahead at the plate, but Romine’s .238/.260/.317 line in 2020 fell back toward his lackluster career levels. A return to a backup role seems likelier than another starting gig.
• Mike Zunino (30): Zunino has never hit for average and probably strikes out too often to ever do so. However, he also has as much raw power as any catcher in MLB and is considered a premium defender at his position.
• Jason Castro (34): Castro’s massive strikeout rates are the trade-off for his excellent walk rate and his strong defensive skills. After batting .229/.325/.390 in three seasons with the Twins, he’s hitting .194/.310/.389 in 84 plate appearances between the Halos and Padres. Castro has some pop to go along with the OBP and glove, making his low average more tolerable. He’s been relegated to backup duty since being flipped from Anaheim to San Diego, so you could argue he belongs in the next tier of this breakdown, but he’s been a starter everywhere except his brief run with the Friars.

Backup/Timeshare Candidates

• Alex Avila (34): Avila has been a “three true outcomes” backup for several years, but while the walks and whiffs are still there, he’s lost the most important outcome in 2020. Avila has homered just once in 60 plate appearances with the Twins.
• Drew Butera (37): Butera seems to find his way to the Rockies or Royals every year. The veteran backup has never hit much but has carved out an 11-year MLB career on the strength of his reputation as a receiver.
• Welington Castillo (34): Castillo was looking to rebuild his stock on a minor league deal with the Nats after a dismal two-year White Sox run, but he opted out of the season at the beginning of Summer Camp.
• Francisco Cervelli (35): In a concerning trend, Cervelli missed much of the 2020 season with yet another concussion. It’s the seventh career IL trip due to concussion symptoms for Cervelli and his sixth since 2017. When healthy, Cervelli can hit, frame and throw well, but he’s been on the IL in each of the past five seasons.
• Tyler Flowers (35): Long a premium framer who has mashed lefty pitching, the right-handed-hitting Flowers has seen his production against southpaws evaporate over the past two seasons.
• Bryan Holaday (33): Holaday boasts a career 30.7 percent caught-stealing rate, but his overall track record at the plate is poor. He’s still found his way onto a big league roster each year since 2012, so clubs clearly respect the veteran as a depth/backup option.
• Erik Kratz (41): Kratz keeps landing with the Yankees — three minor league deals in four years — which makes sense as an Eastern Pennsylvania native who still resides near the club’s Scranton affiliate. He’ll be 41 next year, but Kratz is as respected as they come in clubhouses and could get another minors pact if he wants to keep playing.
• Sandy Leon (32): Leon’s huge 2016 season with the Red Sox looks like a clear outlier, as he’s hit .194/.261/.307 in four subsequent campaigns. He’s a quality defender with great caught-stealing and framing marks.
• Jeff Mathis (38): Speaking of great defenders, Mathis has as strong a reputation with the glove as any catcher in MLB. His bat has wilted to near-historic levels over the past couple seasons, but he wants to play in ’21 and is open to a limited role as a backup/mentor with the Rangers.
• Josh Phegley (33): Phegley has nabbed nearly a third of runners who have tried to run against him in his big league career. He struggles to get on base but does have good pop against lefties.
• Rene Rivera (37): Another quality defender with a limited offensive track record, Rivera hasn’t topped 100 plate appearances since the 2017 season. His defensive reputation should land him minor league offers this winter if he wants to keep going.
• Kurt Suzuki (37): Suzuki can still swing it better than your average catcher, slashing .257/.333/.385 in 116 plate appearances. He’s not regarded as a strong defender, and his longstanding issue controlling the running game has persisted in 2020 (5-for-32).
• Matt Wieters (35): Wieters has spent two seasons as a seldom-used backup to iron man Yadier Molina in St. Louis. He’s batted .209/.268/.398 with 11 dingers in 221 plate appearances for the Cards.

Players with Contractual Options

• Robinson Chirinos, $6.5MM club option with $1MM buyout: It’s all but a formality that this will be bought out. Chirinos has received just 30 plate appearances since being traded from the Rangers to the Mets and is sitting on a woeful .169/.241/.251 slash in 2020. He’ll turn 37 next June.
• Roberto Perez, $5.5MM club option with $450K buyout: Perez will be 32 next season and is having a miserable year with the bat, but he’s an all-world defender who ripped 24 home runs in 2019. Perez leads all catchers in Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons — it’s not close — and his glove alone arguably makes him worth this sum even if his 2019 offense was a fluke. That’s especially true considering his deal also carries a 2022 option.
• Wilson Ramos, $10MM club option with $1.5MM buyout: Ramos’ second season in Queens has been pedestrian, at best (.241/.301/.376). The Buffalo no longer resembles the force at the plate he once was, and he’s always been more of a bat-first option behind the dish.
• Stephen Vogt: The 35-year-old is actually close to seeing this vesting option kick in — he’d need to appear in each of the team’s final three games — but that seems unlikely. The D-backs have sat Vogt in all but four games this month, and while there’s probably a direct correlation between the drop in playing time and that vesting clause, the team can point to Vogt’s .147/.234/.265 slash as clear justification for sitting him.

Top of the Class

• Trevor Bauer (30): An front-of-the-rotation performer in 2018, Bauer managed only a 4.48 ERA in his 213 frames last year while allowing home runs at about three times the rate he did in the season prior. If you value Bauer somewhere in between, he’s still a high-quality performer. The fact that he’s steadfastly claiming interest only in one-year agreements should enhance his appeal to some organizations.
• Mike Minor (33): The past health issues haven’t been a concern of late for the southpaw, who last year topped two hundred frames and posted a 3.59 ERA. His fielding-independent pitching numbers weren’t quite as impressive, but at worst Minor figures to be a quality mid-rotation target.
• Jake Odorizzi (31): He somewhat surprisingly took the qualifying offer after a very strong 2019 showing, but that could still work to Odorizzi’s benefit. He won’t be dragged down by draft compensation and could be the top-available arm. Odorizzi put up a 3.51 ERA last year, though he was only asked to work 159 frames over thirty starts.
• Jose Quintana (32): The results weren’t there in 2019, as Quintana limped to a 4.68 ERA. But he did manage a 3.80 FIP, so if you believe in his ability to keep the ball in the yard even while others around the game can’t, then perhaps there’s still a good bit left in the tank. Quintana has a long track record of success, so the market could buy into a rebound if he’s able to show it.
• Robbie Ray (29): The upside here is tremendous with Ray’s propensity for generating whiffs. But he was also more prone to dole out free passes and surrender long balls than the other members of this group. Ray has been pretty durable and has a strong history of strikeouts. Given his age, he probably has the greatest earning upside of any starter in an underwhelming overall market.
• Marcus Stroman (30): While his strikeout numbers don’t jump off the page, Stroman generates a lot of grounders and has consistently turned in palatable home run tallies. He seems like a good bet for a strong, four-year deal, even if he’s unlikely to take down a monster contract.
• Masahiro Tanaka (32): Tanaka’s swinging-strike rate dropped to 10.7% in 2019 after a two-season surge. But he has had success at that level previously and continues to avoid walks and generate strong groundball numbers. It’s tough to imagine Tanaka again producing the kind of sparkling numbers he did early in his tenure with the Yankees, but he could be a major factor on the market.

Upside Aplenty

• James Paxton (32): The big lefty is healing while everyone else waits for baseball to get started. He’s arguably the most talented pitcher on this year’s market and could still command a big payday if he hits the ground running when he returns.
• Garrett Richards (33): It’s much the same story for Richards as for Paxton. He made it back to the majors briefly in 2019 so should be a full go for the 2020 season. It has been a long time since he has managed a complete season, but there’s a tremendous established ceiling.
• Kevin Gausman (30): Could there still be some breakout potential here? Gausman didn’t have a successful 2019 by most measures, but he did jump up to a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and 10.0 K/9 — both career-high levels. He posted an ugly 5.72 ERA, but ERA estimators were rather more optimistic as to the value of his contributions (3.98 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA).
• Michael Wacha (29): We’ve already seen Wacha turn in quality MLB campaigns from a rotation and he’s still fairly young, so he could be an interesting name to watch if he’s able to author a bounceback campaign.
• Taijuan Walker (28): It’s not promising that the Diamondbacks elected to cut bait after watching Walker return from Tommy John surgery. But he has had plenty of time to rest and is reputedly motivated in his return to the Mariners.
• Alex Wood (30): He has throw 839 innings of 3.40 ERA ball in the majors with metrics to match (3.49 FIP/3.53 xFIP/3.70 SIERA), so there’s no denying Wood’s track record.

Established Veterans

• Brett Anderson (33): When he takes the mound in 2020, it’ll be a dozen straight seasons of some MLB action. Despite the many injuries and ups and downs, Anderson is still a useful, groundball-oriented starter.
• Chase Anderson (33): If he’s good enough to be interesting, the Blue Jays will pick up their $9.5MM club option ($500K buyout).
• Chris Archer (32): Likewise, Archer will probably either be a reclamation project or an easy choice to retain on a $11MM club option ($250K buyout).
• Jake Arrieta (35): We’re now three full seasons into obvious decline for Arrieta, but he’s still a factor regardless and could yet have a late-career renaissance of sorts.
• Homer Bailey (35): His deal with the Reds didn’t work out at all, but Bailey settled in last year as a sturdy presence.
• Tyler Chatwood (31): He has found more success of late in the bullpen than as a starter, with his velo trending up in shorter stints, but who knows what the future holds?
• Anthony DeSclafani (31): He quietly turned in a strong rebound campaign in 2019, spinning 166 2/3 innings of 3.89 ERA pitching with 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.
• Mike Fiers (36): Though ERA estimators think it’s a mirage, Fiers carries a 3.73 ERA in 356 2/3 frames over the past two seasons.
• Gio Gonzalez (35): Gio had a bit of a quiet resurgence last year. If he can carry that forward, the White Sox can keep him for $7MM (or pay a $500K buyout).
• Cole Hamels (37): Hamels is taking things one year at a time. We’ll see how he bounces back from an injury that was going to take away a big chunk of the 2020 season before it was paused.
• J.A. Happ (38): We may end up debating Hamels and Happ until one or both finally decide to hang ’em up.
• Rich Hill (41): Another venerable southpaw, Hill is dead set on returning to glory with the Twins and remains a highly talented hurler when he’s able to take the bump.
• Merrill Kelly (32): If he’s not good enough for the D-Backs to pick up with a $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout), we likely won’t be featuring him much in free agency.
• Corey Kluber (35): The Rangers are hoping he’s a slam dunk on a $17.5MM club option; if not, we’ll be talking about a bounceback candidate.
• Mike Leake (33): He’ll take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door. When last he hit the open market, Leake’s appeal was in his youth. Now, he has a lot to show in his platform season.
• Jon Lester (37): Could this be the final run or will Lester keep going?
• Charlie Morton (37): As with Kluber … if he’s what his team expects, his option (in this case, a floating-value vesting/club option) will be exercised.
• Jimmy Nelson (32): The Dodgers hold a cheap club option, but if he throws enough innings it’ll convert to a mutual option that could allow Nelson to revisit the market.
• Ivan Nova (34): Steady innings, we all need ’em.
• Martin Perez (30): The Red Sox went after the southpaw and made sure they’d keep the upside ($6.25MM club option) if he works out.
• Rick Porcello (32): If he can turn things back around with the Mets, Porcello could be a candidate for a multi-year deal.
• Tyson Ross (34): We’re well past wondering whether Ross can regain his earlier-career form, but perhaps he could still settle in as a useful veteran swingman.
• Jeff Samardzija (36): Samardzija rather quietly turned in 181 1/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball last year for the Giants. The peripherals didn’t exactly suggest he’s in the middle of a Verlander-like late-career run, but Shark could again be a factor.
• Anibal Sanchez (37): Speaking of resurgent hurler, Sanchez will either get a $2MM buyout or pitch again in D.C. on a $12MM club option.
• Drew Smyly (32): Still capable of getting strikeouts and somehow rather youthful, Smyly may yet have another run in his left arm.
• Jordan Zimmermann (35): Unfortunately, there’s really no sugar-coating Zimmermann’s miserable tenure in Detroit.

Top of the Class

All four of these hurlers ranked in the top-ten leaguewide in fWAR in 2019. But can they all repeat that showing in their platform seasons?

• Ken Giles (30): There have been some ups and downs, to say the least, but Giles was a beast again in 2019. He worked through some arm issues and spun 53 frames of 1.87 ERA ball with 14.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. And he’s younger than the other major options.
• Liam Hendriks (32): Dropped from the MLB roster in 2019, Hendriks emerged as … arguably the game’s best reliever last year. He was not only exceptionally dominant but did it over a hefty 83-inning workload.
• Brandon Workman (32): Ramping up his curveball usage sure did work out. Workman broke out with a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings. While walks (5.7 per nine) pose a concern, he only allowed one home run all season long, generated a 51.1% groundball rate, and produced 13.1 K/9 despite a less-than-astronomical 12.7% swinging-strike rate.
• Kirby Yates (34): Think some of those above numbers popped? How about these: 1.19 ERA, 15.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 47.9% groundball rate, 0.30 HR/9. Yates was an animal in 2019 and has a few seasons of proof that he is very hard to square up — if you can make contact at all. He’s the odds-on favorite to be the top free agent target (though Giles arguably has the most earning upside given his age).

Upside Plays

It’s possible any or all of these three could be big-time open-market targets … but each has much to prove in 2020.

• Dellin Betances (33): If he bounces back to his pre-injury form, Betances will take a $3MM buyout from the Mets and head back to free agency in search of the major deal he had hoped to pursue the last time. His ceiling on the mound is about as high as any reliever in baseball.
• Blake Treinen (33): The stuff is absolutely monstrous and Treinen made it play in a huge 2018 season. But he stepped back last year and has had a lot of trouble with consistency over time. The Dodgers placed a pretty big bet on his ability to put it all back together.
• Keone Kela (28): He has consistently produced double-digit K/9 rates and ran up a 2.12 ERA in 29 2/3 innings last year. There’s a clear path to ninth-inning responsibilities in Pittsburgh and Kela is pretty young. Could he fully emerge in 2020?

Certified Closers

But are the certifications out of date? All of the players listed in this section have more than one hundred career saves, though odds are most won’t be considered first-option closers in the 2020-21 offseason.

• Alex Colome (32): You can’t argue with thirty saves and 61 innings of 2.80 ERA ball. But Colome’s 2019 peripherals (8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 45.2% groundball rate) weren’t nearly as exciting.
• Wade Davis (35): Davis is looking to bounce back after an absolutely brutal 2019 season. His $15MM mutual option would convert to a player option if he finishes thirty games … so the Rockies might be wise to utilize recently extended hurler Scott Oberg in the 9th (if they weren’t already so inclined).
• Mark Melancon (36): He threw well enough to get the value-focused Braves to take over the back end of his hefty free agent contract, so obviously the veteran still has some gas in the tank. He was tough to take deep and ran up a big 62.1% groundball rate last year while averaging better than a strikeout per nine.
• David Robertson (36): Still working back from Tommy John surgery, Robertson is likely to be sent back to the open market with a $2MM buyout rather than playing on a $12MM club option for the Phillies. Robertson has been very good for a very long time, with a lifetime 2.90 ERA in 663 2/3 innings.
• Steve Cishek (35): Though his days as a ninth-inning stalwart are probably over, Cishek is still a quality hurler and the experience doesn’t hurt. He could end up remaining with the White Sox ($6.75MM club option, $750K buyout) if he turns in a strong campaign.
• Sergio Romo (38): Here’s another established vet who could remain with his current team (Twins) via club option ($5MM; $250K buyout).
• Joakim Soria (37): The results weren’t there in 2019, but Soria still ran up 10.3 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. He still throws as hard as ever and generated swinging-strikes at a rate (13.1%) above his career average.
• Fernando Rodney (44): Are you going to bet against Rodney launching arrows into his mid-forties? I didn’t think so.

Established Setup Options

• Pedro Baez (33): He has been a steady presence for the Dodgers, spinning 339 innings of 3.03 ERA ball since the start of the 2014 season.
• Jesse Chavez (37): Things didn’t go well last year but Chavez will have a chance to bounce back in the final season of his deal with the Rangers.
• Tyler Clippard (36): Clipp seemed on the decline before turning things back on. He was good for 62 innings of 2.90 ERA ball last year.
• Chris Devenski (30): He’ll need to tamp down on the long balls (1.7 per nine in each of the past two seasons) in order to rediscover his early-career, sub-3.00 ERA form.
• Shane Greene (32): Though he blossomed as a closer early in 2019, Greene struggled in the second half with the Braves and lost the ninth to Melancon. As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.
• Kelvin Herrera (31): If he can rediscover his form the White Sox could pick up a $10MM club/vesting option rather than paying a $1MM buyout, but Herrera has a long ways to go after a brutal 2019.
• Yoshihisa Hirano (37): Though he ramped up his strikeout rate, Hirano went from a 2.44 ERA debut to an ugly 4.75 ERA mark in 2019. If he can return to something like his 2018 results, the veteran Japanese hurler could have another year or two in the majors.
• Jeremy Jeffress (33): The roller coaster has continued, as Jeffress went from a dream 2018 showing (1.29 ERA) to a rough 2019 (5.02 ERA).
• Brandon Kintzler (36): The sinkerballer recovered from a brutal 2018 second half. If he’s able to carry forward the good work of last season, he’ll be a pretty easy pick up at a $4MM club option ($250K buyout).
• Trevor May (31): There’s some possible upside potential here, as May has shown real strikeout capabilities since returning from Tommy John surgery and ramped up to a career-high 95.9 mph average fastball last year.
• Brad Peacock (33): The useful swingman wasn’t at his best in 2019 but could end up featuring as an appealing volume inning contributor.
• Yusmeiro Petit (36): He’s aging like a fine wine, with a 2.83 ERA in 267 1/3 innings since the start of his age-32 season.
• David Phelps (34): 2019 was about getting back to full health after a Tommy John layoff. Phelps is controlled by a $4.5MM club option ($250K buyout).
• Hector Rondon (33): Another veteran late-inning stalwart who can be controlled at a pretty low price ($4MM club option, $500K buyout), Rondon’s strikeout rate fell off quite a bit last year but he still managed a 3.71 ERA.
• Bryan Shaw (33): After two brutal seasons, there’s almost no chance the Rockies are picking up his $9MM club/vesting option rather than paying a $2MM buyout. Shaw had experienced nothing but success before landing in Colorado, so perhaps there’s a chance he rediscovers it.
• Pedro Strop (36): The long-time workhorse ran into hard times in 2019 but had delivered year after year of sub-3.00 ERA ball for the Cubs before that.