• The White Sox are expected to target veteran bullpen help if they're in a position to add to their roster in July, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter).
• Knobler hears the Diamondbacks will call top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer up “soon” (Twitter link).
• The Red Sox called the Diamondbacks about Joe Saunders after Arizona acquired the left-hander in 2010, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. One MLB executive can imagine a trade involving Saunders and Kevin Youkilis, though the person doubts the Diamondbacks would be interested in taking on considerable salary or parting with a significant prospect.
• The Mets will likely make three roster moves Tuesday, when Miguel Batista, Jason Bay and Chris Young are expected to return, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports (on Twitter). The club will have to create 40-man roster space for Young.
• The Tigers should have a better idea of what, if anything, Victor Martinez can offer in 2012 by late July, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

• The Cubs signed free agent right-hander Shane Lindsay and released left-hander Nate Robertson, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports. Lindsay, who was released by the Dodgers earlier this month, will report to Triple-A Iowa. He has a 3.61 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 8.9 BB/9 in three Triple-A seasons. His trouble with walks persisted in the Dodgers' organization earlier this year.
• Robertson has pitched more than 1100 innings over the course of nine seasons in the Major Leagues. The free agent last appeared in an MLB game in 2010.

Kevin Towers’s contract obligations:

C – Josh Bard – $1.05MM
C – Rob Bowen – $0.38MM
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $0.3805MM
2B – Marcus Giles – $3.25MM + incentives
SS – Khalil Greene – $2.25MM + incentives
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $0.38MM
IF – Todd Walker – $3.95MM
IF – Russell Branyan – $1.25MM
IF – Geoff Blum – $0.9MM + incentives
LF – Terrmel Sledge – $0.38MM
CF – Mike Cameron – $7MM
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM
OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – $0.65MM

SP – Greg Maddux – $10MM
SP – Jake Peavy – $4.75MM
SP – David Wells – $3MM + incentives
SP – Chris Young – $0.6MM
SP – Clay Hensley – $0.392MM

RP – Trevor Hoffman – $6.5MM
RP – Scott Linebrink – $1.75MM
RP – Scott Strickland – $0.55MM
RP – Doug Brocail – $0.5MM + incentives
RP – Cla Meredith – $0.38MM
RP – Heath Bell – $0.38MM
RP – Mike Thompson – $0.38MM

I calculate a $60MM payroll, not including any incentives earned.  That’s down about $10MM from last year, so count on Towers making a big move midseason if needed.

Let’s first take a look at defense.  If Bard’s 17% caught stealing rate from last year carries over, he may be the worst in baseball at shutting down the running game.  Head to head fantasy baseball players, take note.  He’s not quite Piazza bad, but still. 

Kouzmanoff is not a glove man, nor are backup infielders Branyan and Walker.  Greene and Giles form an above average defensive middle infield combo, taking some pressure off Kouz.  The outfield defense should be excellent, led by Cameron.  Peavy and Young are the flyball pitchers on the staff while the rest get grounders.

How about the offense, ranked 13th of 16 NL teams last year?  They have a downgrade at catcher, upgrade at 2B, big upgrade at 3B, and a clear upgrade in left.  It seems sneaky, but this team has improved a lot on offense by importing Giles and Sledge while letting Dave Roberts go.  It’s tough to sustain a Roberts-type hitter from a power position if you’re not the White Sox.  They should move towards the middle in runs scored.

One more note – I really like what they’re doing with Sledge and Cruz in left.  That platoon could be league average or better for a million bucks, and if it’s not, they’ve got money in the coffers to compensate for a big-name addition like Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye should they become available.

I feel that the Padres have the best starting rotation in the league, beating out the Brewers.  The staff has very good control, especially if Maddux can teach Hensley some things and Young bounces back.  If healthy, top pitching prospect Cesar Carrillo could jump right in as the sixth man and post a 4.50 ERA from the start.

The bullpen is a clear strength as well; the crew should be at least top five and maintain an ERA under 4 again.

I’ve yet to give the other NL West teams an in-depth analysis, but the Padres have a well-balanced attack and quietly improved over the offseason.  This looks like a playoff team.

Need more Padres previews?  Geoff Young of Ducksnorts has done two – one at Hardball Times and another at CGBB.

Mark Shapiro’s contract obligations:

C – Victor Martinez – $3MM
C – Kelly Shoppach – $0.38MM
1B – Casey Blake – $3.75MM + incentives
2B – Josh Barfield – $0.38MM
SS – Jhonny Peralta – $0.75MM + incentives
3B – Andy Marte – $0.38MM
IF – Hector Luna – $0.4083MM
IF – Ryan Garko – $0.3831MM
LF – David Dellucci – $3.75MM
CF – Grady Sizemore – $0.75MM
RF – Trot Nixon – $3MM + incentives
OF – Jason Michaels – $2MM + incentives
DH – Travis Hafner – $3.75MM + incentives

SP – C.C. Sabathia – $8.75MM + incentives
SP – Paul Byrd – $7MM
SP – Jake Westbrook – $6.1MM
SP – Cliff Lee – $2.75MM
SP – Jeremy Sowers – $0.3848MM

RP – Joe Borowski – $4MM + incentives
RP – Roberto Hernandez – $3.3MM
RP – Aaron Fultz – $1.5MM + incentives
RP – Rafael Betancourt – $0.84MM
RP – Jason Davis – $0.67MM + incentives
RP – Matt Miller – $0.56MM
RP – Fernando Cabrera – $0.3918MM

Minors:

RP – Tom Mastny – $0.38MM
RP – Tony Sipp – $0.38MM
SP – Adam Miller – $0.38MM
RF – Shin-Soo Choo – $0.3831MM

It’s roughly $60MM committed; Shapiro has operated carefully to assemble such an affordable contender.  He seemingly has room to add some players in the summer, especially if he discards some of Byrd’s salary.

Will the offense be second best in the AL again?  I believe so.  Their stars, Sizemore, Hafner, and Martinez, should maintain their levels.  Hafner could be even better in sum if he can top 130 games played.  Looking at some revamped positions: the Tribe could take a small step back at first base, and steps forward at the other three infield positions (youth is served and Aaron Boone is gone).  With Dellucci getting most of the PT in left, they’ll blow past last year’s .258/.311/.393 from that corner.  RF should hold steady or improve.  It would be tough to spar with the Yankees for the game’s best offense but it’s not unfathomable.

Defensively the team looks OK if not spectacular.  Improvement from Peralta would go a long way.

The rotation looks borderline top five to me.  The Tribe had a collective 4.31 starter ERA last year, good for third best. This year, the lack of Jason Johnson plus some Jeremy Sowers regression should mostly balance out.  Potential gains come in the form of 32 starts from Sabathia (a Cy Young candidate) and replacement of Paul Byrd with Adam Miller (4.64 ERA according to PECOTA) or Fausto Carmona (4.04 ERA).

The bullpen is the clear question mark, and Borowski/Hernandez/Fultz may not help at all despite the money spent.  Two of the team’s seven best relievers may start the year in Triple A in Sipp and Mastny.  If Shapiro is not afraid to dump a guy like Hernandez for Sipp if performance calls for it, the Indians can improve upon last year’s 4.66 relief ERA.  Betancourt and Cabrera could be a nasty pair if things come together.  It might make sense to overpay for a reliever with a young outfielder, if none of the above work out.

I should add that the team has great depth; they’ll be forced to leave Major League quality players in Triple A to start the season.  The Indians look like a World Series contender to me, though wins could be sacrificed to play certain veterans over kids.

Doug Melvin’s contract obligations:

C – Johnny Estrada – $3.4MM + incentives
C – Damian Miller – $2.75MM
1B – Prince Fielder – $0.415MM
2B – Rickie Weeks – $1.22MM (estimated)
SS – J.J. Hardy – $0.38MM
3B – Tony Graffanino – $3.25MM/Craig Counsell – $2.8MM
LF – Geoff Jenkins – $7MM
CF – Bill Hall – $3MM
RF – Corey Hart – $0.38MM
OF – Brady Clark – $3.8MM
OF – Kevin Mench – $3.4MM
OF – Gabe Gross – $0.38MM

SP – Ben Sheets – $10MM
SP – Jeff Suppan – $6MM + $0.25MM signing bonus = $6.25MM
SP – Chris Capuano – $3.25MM
SP – Claudio Vargas – $2.5MM
SP – Dave Bush – $0.38MM

RP – Francisco Cordero – $5MM
RP – Derrick Turnbow – $2.3MM + incentives
RP – Brian Shouse – $0.975MM
RP – Matt Wise – $1MM
RP – Jose Capellan – $0.38MM
RP – Greg Aquino – $0.38MM
RP – Carlos Villanueva – $0.38MM

Injured/Minors:

3B – Corey Koskie – $2MM (post-concussion syndrome)
3B – Ryan Braun – $0.38MM
3B – Vinnie Rottino – $0.38MM
RP – Grant Balfour – $0.415MM
SP – Yovani Gallardo – $0.38MM

It’s about $62MM worth of players, up about $5 mil from Opening Day last year.  The payroll has been managed well, and I think management would be willing to make a midseason trade to put the team over the hump.

The middle infield combo just needs to stay healthy for a full season; no one doubts their ability to hit.  Because of the injury possibility, the Crew went out and got Counsell this winter.  They might not have wanted Graffanino to accept arbitration, but he gives them depth to cover third base until Ryan Braun is ready.  Braun has a robust PECOTA forecast of .283/.341/.504.  He should be up by May if he sore elbow is OK.  Koskie, meanwhile, is nowhere near game ready and may never be. It’s not a particularly impressive defensive infield, but the bats should compensate.

The outfield will have Hall and Hart as full-timers.  I’ve currently got six outfielders listed for the Brewers, but a trade of Mench seems in the cards.  That’d clear left field for Jenkins, leave Clark as the CF backup, and open a spot for Gross to make the team.  The division has all sorts of virgin CFs in Hall, Alfonso Soriano, and Chris Burke.  Griffey might move to right, also.   

The Brewers had a poor offense last year.  They’ll get more out of the catcher spot with Estrada, a step forward from Fielder, and a slight downgrade in left compared to Carlos Lee.  A big year from Hart plus a healthy middle infield would move the offense toward the middle of the pack.

The rotation is set, and a major strength.  Sheets will be one of baseball’s best if he’s healthy, and he’s looked good so far.  The team isn’t completely screwed if he goes down – Carlos Villanueva and Yovani Gallardo can step in admirably.  Gallardo doesn’t get a ton of hype, but his PECOTA calls for a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 141 innings as a rookie.  That’s ROY material. 

The bullpen was lousy last year.  It can’t help but improve with the subtractions of Dan Kolb, Geremi Gonzalez, Zach Jackson, Jorge de la Rosa, and Dana Eveland.  A full season of Cordero and a shorter leash for Turnbow should also help.

The Brewers have a good chance of winning the NL Central on the strength of their starting rotation.  If the offense comes together, a core of Fielder/Weeks/Hardy/Braun/Hall/Hart could be above average.  If anything is missing by July, a major trade and the promotion of Gallardo could push them into the playoffs.

Bill Bavasi’s contract obligations:

C – Kenji Johjima – $5.2MM + $0.33MM signing bonus = $5.53MM + incentives
C – Rene Rivera – $0.38MM
1B – Richie Sexson – $14MM + 1.5MM signing bonus = 15.5MM
2B – Jose Lopez – $0.38MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $0.4MM + $0.3275MM signing bonus = $0.7275MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $11.5MM + 1.4MM signing bonus = $12.9MM
IF – Ben Broussard – $3.55MM
IF – Willie Bloomquist – $0.825MM + $0.05MM signing bonus = $0.875MM
LF – Raul Ibanez – $5.5MM
CF – Ichiro Suzuki – $11MM + $1.5MM signing bonus = $12.5MM + incentives
RF – Jose Guillen – $5MM + incentives
OF – Jeremy Reed – $0.38MM
DH – Jose Vidro – $7.5MM – $2MM from Nats = $5.5MM

SP – Felix Hernandez – $0.42MM
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $8.75MM
SP – Jeff Weaver – $8.325MM + incentives
SP – Miguel Batista – $8.33MM
SP – Horacio Ramirez – $2.65MM

RP – J.J. Putz – $2.2MM + $0.5MM signing bonus = $2.7MM
RP – Chris Reitsma – $1.35MM
RP – Julio Mateo – $1MM + $0.075MM signing bonus = $1.075MM
RP – George Sherrill – $0.38MM
RP – Jake Woods – $0.38MM
RP – Arthur Rhodes – $0.38MM
RP – Jon Huber – $0.38MM

Injured/Minors:

RP – Mark Lowe – $0.38MM
RP – Aaron Small – $0.38MM
SP – Cha Seung Baek – $0.38MM
3B – Sean Burroughs – $0.45MM + incentives

Maybe someone can tell me whether signing bonuses are typically spread throughout the life of the contract.  That’s what I’ve done here (the Mariners seem to love signing bonuses).  By my calculations this is a $104MM Opening Day payroll.  You can’t call the team cheap.

The Ms offense was the second-worst in the league last year.  They made two change.  Jose Vidro, while a subpar DH and lousy acquisition, can’t help but improve upon the lackluster performance of Carl Everett and Co. last year.  And with Ichiro sticking in center, the Ms are essentially replacing the offense of Reed and Bloomquist with Guillen.  The offense appears to have the potential to reach the middle of the pack.

The Mariners have some trade candidates in Reed and Broussard, but given Bavasi’s track record, I’d be surprised if he made deals with them to improve the team.   

As for the rotation, not giving 25 starts to Joel Pineiro should help.  They’re going for a mostly groundball approach with this staff, and it should be better.  Last year’s starters posted a cumulative 4.88 ERA.  Lack of Pineiro and a step forward from Felix might be able to put them around 4.50.

Replacing Rafael Soriano with Chris Reitsma in the eighth inning will damage the club.  And it’s not a big deal yet, but lights out closer J.J. Putz is nursing a tender elbow this spring.  The pen could fall apart in a hurry.  Last year’s group had a 4.04 ERA.   

To me, the Mariners have very little chance of making the playoffs this year. I suppose they could pull off an upset with some career years in the rotation, no injuries, and great leaps forward from Lopez and Betancourt.  Still, the odds are stacked against them.

Omar Minaya’s contract obligations:

C – Paul LoDuca – $6.5MM
C – Ramon Castro – $0.85MM
1B – Carlos Delgado – $14.5MM – $1.75MM from FLA = $12.75MM
2B – Jose Valentin – $3.8MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $2.5MM
3B – David Wright – $1MM
IF – Julio Franco – $1.1MM
IF – Damion Easley – $0.85MM
LF – Moises Alou – $7.5MM
CF – Carlos Beltran – $12MM
RF – Shawn Green – $9.45MM – 6.45MM from ARI = 3.05MM
OF – Endy Chavez – $1.725MM
OF – David Newhan – $0.575MM

SP – Tom Glavine – $7.5MM
SP – Orlando Hernandez – $4.5MM $0.5MM bonus = $5MM + incentives
SP – Oliver Perez – $2.325MM + incentives
SP – Chan Ho Park – $0.6MM + incentives
SP – John Maine – $0.38MM

RP – Billy Wagner – $10.5MM
RP – Scott Schoeneweis – $3.6MM
RP – Jorge Sosa – $1.25MM
RP – Duaner Sanchez – $0.85MM + incentives
RP – Aaron Heilman – $0.38MM
RP – Ambiorix Burgos – $0.38MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $0.38MM

Injured/Suspended/Minors:

SP – Pedro Martinez – $14MM (could return from rotator cuff surgery in July)
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.65MM
SP – Aaron Sele – $1MM + incentives
SP – Alay Soler – $0.93MM
RP – Guillermo Mota – $1.8MM – $0.55MM from steroid suspension = $1.25MM
RP – Dave Williams – $1.25MM (out til June from neck surgery)
RP – Jon Adkins – $0.38MM
RP – Juan Padilla – $0.38MM
OF – Ben Johnson – $0.38MM
OF – Lastings Milledge – $0.38MM

That’s my take, with the fifth outfielder job and perhaps last bullpen spot unsettled.  The payroll seems to be about $110MM, not terribly different than last year.

The Mets were third in runs scored in 2006, and that should continue.  Moises Alou replacing Cliff Floyd is a nice touch.

The defense looks pretty good overall, with only Delgado and Alou as the obvious weak spots at their offense-minded positions.

Much ado has been made about the Mets’ rotation, which appears to lack a "#1" starter.  I don’t see this as a big regular season problem given a strong offense and bullpen.  Rather than throw down a billion dollars on Barry Zito, Omar Minaya spread his risk among many starters.  He’s got low-upside Sele types but also the potential of Pelfrey and Perez.  If nothing’s working when July approaches, Lastings Milledge could make excellent trade bait.  Anything Pedro gives them late in the summer is gravy.

As I mentioned earlier, the bullpen looks deep. Even with Sanchez a question mark, the Mets will get through the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.  They’d love for Burgos to step in and be a lights out seventh inning option, and a step forward in control plus the National League could get his ERA under 4.

Right now I have a hard time picking the Mets or Phillies to win the NL East.  The Phils should have a better rotation and comparable offense.

Terry Ryan’s contract obligations:

C – Joe Mauer – $3.75MM
C – Mike Redmond – $0.95MM
1B – Justin Morneau – $4.5MM
2B – Luis Castillo – $5.75MM
SS – Jason Bartlett – $0.38MM
3B – Nick Punto – $1.8MM
IF – Jeff Cirillo – $1.5MM + incentives
IF – Luis Rodriguez – $0.38MM
LF – Rondell White – $2.5MM
CF – Torii Hunter – $12MM
RF – Michael Cuddyer – $3.575MM
OF – Lew Ford – $0.985MM
DH – Jason Kubel – $0.38MM

SP – Johan Santana – $12MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $4MM
SP – Ramon Ortiz – $3.1MM
SP – Sidney Ponson – $1MM + incentives
SP – Boof Bonser – $0.38MM

RP – Joe Nathan – $5.25MM
RP – Juan Rincon – $2MM
RP – Dennys Reyes – $1MM
RP – Jesse Crain – $0.5MM
RP – Pat Neshek – $0.38MM
RP – Matt Guerrier – $0.38MM
RP – J.D. Durbin – $0.38MM

They have about $69MM worth of players on this projected 25-man roster, up about $5MM from last year’s Opening Day payroll.

I think the offense will probably be about average, with a chance to be a touch better if Kubel comes through.  I don’t have big concerns about Mauer and Morneau dropping off.  They’re not getting adequate production at power positions like 3B, LF, or DH though.

If you’re going to beat the Tigers, Indians, and White Sox with an average offense, you’ll need above average starting pitching and defense.  As presently constructed, the Twins don’t have this.  Teams like the Indians and White Sox will knock the non-Santana starters around.  My off-the-cuff review says the defense is decent but not spectacular.

The ridiculous part is that the Twins are again going with veteran crap instead of their kids, and it will cost them wins again.  Said Aaron Gleeman:

"It’s possible that the rotation at Triple-A Rochester will include Garza, Baker, Perkins, and Slowey, which has a good chance of being a better foursome that the non-Santana starters the Twins leave spring training with."

I don’t get this. The games in April and May count, right?

The bullpen can at least make up for the rotation’s misgivings.  It looks to be quite strong again.  I went with Guerrier and Durbin for the last two spots at the advice of Seth Stohs.  Seth mentions that Durbin is out of options, increasing the chances the Twins carry him.  He also notes that the team could go with 11 pitchers.

If Kubel breaks out, the rotation turns over quickly, and the Twins trade for Adam Dunn at the deadline, the could win the division.  More likely to me is that they’re out of struggling to stay in contention in July and are faced with trading Torii Hunter.

Dave Littlefield’s contract obligations:

C – Ronny Paulino – $0.38MM
C – Humberto Cota – $0.537MM
1B – Adam LaRoche – $3.2MM
2B – Freddy Sanchez – $2.75MM
SS – Jack Wilson – $5.25MM
3B – Jose Castillo – $1.9MM
IF/C – Ryan Doumit – $0.38MM
IF – Jose Bautista – $0.38MM
LF – Jason Bay – $3.25MM
CF – Chris Duffy – $0.38MM
RF – Xavier Nady – $2.15MM (stomach pain)
OF – Luis Matos – $0.38MM
IF/OF – Jose Hernandez – $0.38MM

SP – Zach Duke – $0.38MM
SP – Ian Snell – $0.38MM
SP – Paul Maholm – $0.38MM
SP – Tom Gorzelanny – $0.38MM
SP – Tony Armas Jr. – $3.5MM

RP – Salomon Torres – $2.6MM
RP – Damaso Marte – $2.45MM
RP – John Grabow – $0.8325MM
RP – Jonah Bayliss – $0.38MM
RP – Matt Capps – $0.38MM
RP – Dan Kolb – $1.25MM
RP – Shawn Chacon – $3.825MM

Injured/Minors:
RF – Jody Gerut – $0.85MM
OF – Nate McLouth – $0.38MM
RP – Shane Youman – $0.38MM
RP – Josh Sharpless – $0.38MM

There’s the Opening Day roster as I see it, with a huge assist from Jake at Bucco Blog.  Some things could definitely play out differently.  We still don’t know the cause of Nady’s stomach problems, and if he misses time then McLouth and Matos can both make the club.  Even if he doesn’t McLouth can still beat out Matos.  The fifth starter job could go to Chacon or Armas; I feel like Armas has the edge right now.  An injury to a kid could make it a moot point.  And some combo of Youman and Sharpless could be in the pen instead of Kolb and Bayliss.

Anyway, the payroll looks to be in the $40MM range, with maybe another $5MM going to buyouts and some players not listed.  If the Bucs find themselves in a magical season, one player away, I think they have the payroll flexibility to add a $10MM guy via trade.  They could import a difference-maker like Ichiro or Carlos Guillen.

It looks like Sanchez will play second base, if for no other reason than Wilson won’t play alongside Castillo.  Castillo will try to win the third base job and wait to see if Wilson can be dealt.

LaRoche was a big-time addition, and a move I liked.  LaRoche, Bay, and Sanchez may be the only regulars providing above average offense.  Paulino and Duffy could join that group, but I don’t think anyone can really say that with any certainty right now.

It follows that this club will have to rely on its starting pitching to win. If all four kids stay healthy and show typical growth, it could be a damn good and affordable staff.  Contact guys like Duke and Maholm can post nice ERAs if they get good defense behind them.

The starters may need to go deep into the games, as the pen was weakened by the trade of Mike Gonzalez.  Without getting too deep in the numbers, the 2007 bullpen for this team looks subpar.  On the other hand, relievers are quite volatile. 

I can only see starting pitching as a clear strength for this club.  Well, that and a lack of huge contracts.  The team could make a run for the division but probably won’t; they should focus on keeping the young starters healthy.  Andrew McCutchen could add some star power in ’08, and the Bucs could selectively purchase some free agents heading into that season.

Jim Bowden’s contract obligations:

C – Brian Schneider – $3.5MM
C – Jesus Flores – $0.38MM
C/1B – Robert Fick – $0.38MM
1B – Larry Broadway – $0.38MM
2B – Felipe Lopez – $3.9MM
SS – Cristian Guzman – $4.2MM
3B – Ryan Zimmerman – $0.38MM
IF – Ron Belliard – $0.75MM
IF – Travis Lee – $0.38MM
LF – Ryan Church – $0.38MM
CF – Nook Logan – $0.38MM
RF – Austin Kearns – $3.5MM
OF – Chris Snelling – $0.45MM

SP – John Patterson – $0.85MM
SP – Jerome Williams – $0.5MM
SP – Tim Redding – $0.38MM
SP – Shawn Hill – $0.38MM
SP – Matt Chico – $0.38MM
SP – Beltran Perez – $0.38MM

RP – Chad Cordero – $4.15MM
RP – Luis Ayala – $1.3MM
RP – Jon Rauch – $0.38MM
RP – Ryan Wagner – $0.38MM
RP – Ray King – $0.38MM
RP – Levale Speigner – $0.38MM

Injured:

1B – Nick Johnson – $5.5MM (June return expected for broken femur)
OF – Alex Escobar – $0.53MM (May start year on DL following Sept.labrum surgery)
SP – Brandon Claussen – $0.38MM (Hopes for a May return from rotator cuff surgery)
SP – Mike O’Connor – $0.38MM (November elbow surgery)

That’s my exhausting take on the 25-man roster.  I’m no roster construction expert, but I read up on some popular Nats blogs and took my best shot.  (By the way – Nationals Power is the new kid on the block. Check it out.)  The players listed here amount to $35-36MM.

The Nats are committed to keeping Rule 5 pick Jesus Flores and want to use him as a backup catcher.  Baseball America thinks a year on Washington’s bench would hurt the slugging catcher’s development, given that he’s jumping up from A ball.  My version of the roster has Fick so that Flores won’t get overexposed.

Washington will be without perhaps their best hitter in Johnson until June or so.  Broadway appears to be the favorite to start at first, with Travis Lee and Dmitri Young also in the mix.  I’ll go with Lee for his oft-cited glovework.  It’s still an open competition at this point.

Lopez has played twelve games at 2B in his Major League career, but the Nationals will try it in hopes of getting some value out of Guzman.  Should Guzzie bomb again, Lopez moves to short and Belliard takes over at second.

It seems Church will get a crack at starting in left under a fresh manager, so he needs to make the most of it.  Snelling will provide ample competition. 

Overall, only Lopez, Zimmerman, and maybe Kearns can be expected to provide above average offense for their positions.  This team will struggle to score runs, but expectations are low anyway. On the bright side, the defense looks respectable.

You can see my guess at the rotation; the first four seem fairly likely.  Chico, a 23 year-old southpaw who came over in the Livan Hernandez deal, hasn’t pitched above Double A yet.  He’s got a four-pitch mix and sits in the low 90s.  An ERA below 5 would be a success if he makes the team.  He’s got Jarrod Washburn among his comps.

The point has been made that this motley crew of starters can’t be worse than last year’s, and I agree.  Redding, Williams, and Claussen are the right kind of gambles for the Nationals.  I think they’d be satisfied if one solid guy emerged behind Patterson for ’08.

The pen is an intriguing mix, the purported strength of the club.  Should Ayala bounce back from elbow surgery, he’ll form an underrated trio with Cordero and Rauch.  King adds character, while Speigner is a Rule 5 attempt who closed in Double A last year.

Sure, the Nats will be bad.  Still, they’ve got an impressive rookie manager and the ability to play the spoiler on certain nights.  You gotta start somewhere.

Billy Beane’s contract obligations:

C – Jason Kendall – $8MM
C – Adam Melhuse – $0.815MM
1B – Dan Johnson – $0.38MM
2B – Mark Ellis – $3.5MM
SS – Bobby Crosby – $2.5MM
3B – Eric Chavez – $9.5MM
IF – Marco Scutaro – $1.55MM
IF – Antonio Perez – $0.5MM
LF – Nick Swisher – $0.38MM
CF – Mark Kotsay – $7.5MM
RF – Milton Bradley – $4MM
OF – Bobby Kielty – $2.1MM
OF – Shannon Stewart – $1MM + incentives
DH – Mike Piazza – $8.5MM

SP – Esteban Loaiza – $7MM
SP – Dan Haren – $2.2MM
SP – Rich Harden – $2MM
SP – Joe Blanton – $0.38MM 
SP – Joe Kennedy – $2.8MM

RP – Alan Embree – $2.25MM
RP – Kiko Calero – $1.6MM
RP – Jay Witasick – $1.5MM
RP – Justin Duchscherer – $1.1875MM
RP – Chad Gaudin – $0.38MM
RP – Huston Street – $0.38MM
RP – Brad Halsey – $0.38MM

On the fringe: Halsey, Perez, Lenny Dinardo, Ryan Goleski, Jay Marshall

It appears to be a $72MM payroll.  As you’ll notice, the A’s have a bit of a roster crunch if everyone is healthy.  I’ve listed 26 players because I’m not sure who gets sent down or dealt.  It seems one of Halsey or Perez won’t break camp with the team, as the A’s don’t want Piazza as the backup catcher.  One injury or trade may solve this problem.  Two injuries/trades could clear space for an interesting Rule 5 project like Goleski.      

Johnson seems the favorite to earn the first base job, and maybe correction of his double vision can help him return to average 1B production.  I know he’s got it in him.  If I’m wrong, Erubiel Durazo or Daric Barton will get a shot.

The position players are otherwise locked in, but how many times will we see that starting eight on the field at once?  Johnson, Kendall, and Swisher may be the only guys to avoid the DL this year out of the group.  To be fair, Kotsay is always kind of day-to-day with his back but he’s stayed on the field the past few seasons.  As for Chavez – is he the picture of health or are his injuries a major concern?  Both those articles came out on the same day.  And you know all about the issues of Crosby, Ellis, and Bradley.  The team’s defense appears well above average when the regulars are on the field.

Haren and Blanton are the two starters who can be counted on for 30+ starts.  Loaiza doesn’t scare me much, and Kennedy can be replaced by numerous candidates if he can’t handle the switch to starting.  Jason Windsor might be able to hurl some 85mphers past Vlad and co as the sixth man.  Harden is the wild card.  He’s got ace potential but has been derailed for years since a blister rippled into a sprained elbow ligament.  He’s the difference maker, as this is a pitching and defense team in my opinion.

The bullpen is deep; this team should be involved in plenty of low-scoring games.  A power core of Swisher/Piazza/Chavez can be quite good, with a solid supporting cast.  It’s true the A’s had some bad luck on certain injuries last year, but they’ll need a similar amount of career years healthwise to be an AL superpower.

Jim Hendry’s contract obligations:

C – Michael Barrett – $4.5MM + $0.133 of signing bonus = 4.63MM
C – Henry Blanco – $1.8MM
1B – Derrek Lee – $13MM
2B – Mark DeRosa – $4.33MM
SS – Cesar Izturis – $4.15MM
3B – Aramis Ramirez – $8MM + $1MM of signing bonus = $9MM
IF – Daryle Ward – $1MM
IF – Ryan Theriot – $0.38MM
LF – Cliff Floyd – $3MM + incentives/Matt Murton – $0.38MM
CF – Alfonso Soriano – $9MM
RF – Jacque Jones – $4MM
OF – Angel Pagan – $0.38MM

SP – Carlos Zambrano – $12.4MM
SP – Ted Lilly – $5MM
SP – Rich Hill – $0.38MM
SP – Jason Marquis – $4.75MM
SP – Mark Prior – $3.575MM
SP – Wade Miller – $1.5MM + incentives

RP – Ryan Dempster – $5MM
RP – Bob Howry – $4MM
RP – Scott Eyre – $3.5MM
RP – Kerry Wood – $1.75MM + incentives
RP – Will Ohman – $0.9MM
RP – Neal Cotts – $0.825MM
RP – Mike Wuertz – $0.38MM

I know I’ve got a 13-man pitching staff and 26 total players here, but we can safely assume one of these pitchers will be on the DL at any given time.  I have the 2007 payroll around $99MM.  Notice how the Cubs backloaded contracts for guys like Ramirez, Soriano, Lilly, and Marquis.  They have a clear win-now strategy and could probably add one more impact $10MM player via trade if a large need surfaced.  Could be trouble in ’09 though.

OBP issues notwithstanding, I think the Cubs’ offense is clearly above average.  Just looking at league positional averages, only Izturis seems obviously below.  DeRosa should be about league average at 2B.  They didn’t just add Soriano over Juan Pierre – they’re replacing crap 1B production with an apparently healthy Lee.  Left field could be improved as well.

Defense will be a concern with this club.  Izturis and Lee can certainly handle their positions, but the rest are not known for glovework.  Soriano is completely untested at a key defensive position, and Jones wouldn’t be great either.  If Felix Pie can give the Cubs league average CF offense right now, they should play him in center and ship Jones out for whatever.  Lilly and Hill would be forever thankful.   

The starting rotation should be the key to the Cubs’ success. If this group can manage a collective 4.50 ERA, they’ll be in the top half of the league.  I have the Cubs coming in around 4.15, which is probably on the optimistic side.  It’s because I have Hill at 3.55 and 120 innings of Prior at 4.00.  Then again, I don’t expect Marquis/Miller to be much below 5.00 if at all.  I don’t think the Cubs need to rely on Prior/Miller.  Sean Gallagher, Angel Guzman, or Sean Marshall could fill in capably as the #5 if neither rehab project pans out.  I like the depth, and it’ll be a good staff if Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill are healthy.

The Cubs seem to have a decent bullpen.  I don’t want to say above average, but I see the potential.  Last year’s relief signings turned out well and aren’t showing scary signs of decline.  The underrated Wuertz and Ohman give the team four solid relievers.  A healthy Wood or effective Cotts/Dempster would be big lift and could lift the pen to above average.  Larry Rothschild and the Cubs’ training staff can make the difference.    

If the Cubs don’t give Dempster too long of a leash, are bold with Pie, and Hill’s second half promise carries over, they should be at least a wild card contender all year.  Those are my three ifs for the ’07 Cubs.

Andrew Friedman’s contract obligations:

C – Dioner Navarro – $0.38MM
C – Josh Paul – $0.475MM + raise
1B – Ty Wigginton – $0.75MM + raise
2B – Jorge Cantu – $0.38MM
SS – Ben Zobrist – $0.38MM
3B – Akinori Iwamura – $1.8MM + $1.1375MM posting fee = $2.9375MM
IF/OF/DH – Greg Norton – $0.8MM
LF – Carl Crawford – $4MM
CF – Rocco Baldelli – $0.75MM + $0.45MM bonus = $1.2MM + incentives
RF – Delmon Young – $1.16MM
OF – B.J. Upton – $1.3MM
DH – Jonny Gomes – $0.38MM

SP – Scott Kazmir – $0.38MM
SP – Jamie Shields – $0.38MM
SP – Jae Seo – $1.2MM
SP – Casey Fossum – $2.2MM (September shoulder surgery, should be ready for spring training)
SP – Brian Stokes – $0.38MM
SP – Jason Hammel – $0.38MM
SP – J.P. Howell – $0.38MM
SP – Jeff Niemann – $1.68MM

RP – Dan Miceli – $0.65MM
RP – Shinji Mori – $0.7MM (torn labrum rehab, should not be ready for spring training)
RP – Seth McClung – $0.38MM
RP – Edwin Jackson – $0.38MM
RP – Ruddy Lugo – $0.38MM
RP – Chad Orvella – $0.38MM
RP – Tim Corcoran – $0.38MM

Non-roster invitees:
1B – Hee Seop Choi – $0.975MM

This payroll should be under $25MM, even with some raises, incentives, and the possible inclusion of Choi or Neimann.  And that even includes Iwamura’s posting fee broken up over four years, which may not count against payroll.  It’s a great core, and if built up carefully the D-Rays could make the AL East a very interesting division towards the end of the decade.

The catching situation is set, with Navarro the main man.  The Rays only had to give up a couple of unwanted vets to get Navarro and Seo.

As of right now, Wigginton is the favorite to play first.  He could have two challengers in Choi and Elijah Dukes.  I don’t have Dukes listed above because I don’t see how he fits in at the moment.  But given a 12-man pitching staff there is room for one more position player, one of these two.

Despite his clunky defense and lost 2006, some teams should have interest in Cantu.  Moving him would free up some much-needed space in the infield.  Iwamura can bounce to second if needed, but it seems unlikely that the B.J. Upton-at-third experiement would resume.  Right now Zobrist is the only shortstop candidate, but the Rays might try to upgrade via trade.  As long as it’s not an outfielder, I get the impression Friedman will just try to get the best available player(s) in a deal.

Norton will split some time with Gomes at DH, though I could see Gomes running away with it if healthy.

The outfield is set at Crawford/Baldelli/Young.  That leaves no room for Upton or Dukes if they are viewed as outfielders.  Both deserve starting gigs, so something has to give.  I know the team doesn’t want Upton on the bench with the big club but he’s had enough time at Triple A.

Trade rumors have swirled around Upton, Cantu, and even Crawford, but Baldelli is the name everyone’s talking about currently.  If the Marlins really offered Scott Olsen, the Rays should take it.  Looks like Friedman will just sit back until a team bowls him over with a couple of top shelf prospects.  John Schuerholz, for one, has never been afraid to deal his.  Nor has Kenny Williams. 

Kazmir, Seo, and Shields are locks for the rotation.  Same for Fossum, if his shoulder is OK by spring.  That means one vacancy goes to Stokes, Hammel, or Howell.  Niemann probably needs a half season in the high minors before forcing his way in.  The Rays could still sign a vet off the scrap heap to fill a spot, especially if they don’t have faith in Fossum’s recovery.

The bullpen probably needs one veteran signing, but targets Russ Springer and Octavio Dotel are off the market.  David Riske, perhaps?  The team doesn’t want to go into spring training with McClung closing.

Right now the D-Rays are cheap and supremely talented but at least a year off from competing.  Management seems intelligent now, with some decent trades in the books and reasonable veteran signings.  If guys like Norton, Iwamura, or Wigginton are playing well they could be dealt off for more youth in coming years.

Dayton Moore’s contract obligations:

C – Jason LaRue – $2.5MM
C – John Buck – $0.38MM
1B – Ryan Shealy – $0.38MM
2B – Mark Grudzielanek – $4MM
SS – Angel Berroa – $3.25MM
3B – Mark Teahen – $0.38MM
IF – Esteban German – $0.38MM
LF – Emil Brown – $1.775MM
CF – David DeJesus – $2MM
RF – Reggie Sanders – $5MM
OF – Joey Gathright – $0.38MM
DH – Mike Sweeney – $11MM

SP – Odalis Perez – $1.7MM
SP – Luke Hudson – $0.38MM
SP – Jorge de la Rosa – $0.38MM
SP – Runelvys Hernandez – $1.225MM
SP – Zack Greinke – $0.38MM

RP – Jimmy Gobble – $0.38MM
RP – Ambiorix Burgos – $0.38MM
RP – Todd Wellemeyer – $0.38MM
RP – Andy Sisco – $0.38MM
RP – Joel Peralta – $0.38MM
RP – Joe Nelson – $0.38MM
RP – Ryan Braun – $0.38MM
RP – Ken Ray – $0.38MM
RP – Brandon Duckworth – $0.38MM

Injured players:
SP – Scott Elarton – $4MM (recovering from August shoulder surgery, targeting June 1 return)

Departed players:
RP – Elmer Dessens – $1.7MM

I know I’ve listed 26 active players here, but I’m not sure which reliever isn’t a part of the 2007 Royals.  The team is going to take payroll to the $50-55MM range, a franchise record.  They’ve got about $38.5MM tied up, but Brown, Hernandez, Gobble, Duckworth, and Wellemeyer are all eligible for arbitration.  I’ll ballpark it at $15MM left to spend this winter.

This outlook reflects the current state of the roster, as if the season started tomorrow.  Here’s what could happen between now and Opening Day to change the picture:

– Moore finds a decent offer for Emil Brown at the winter meetings, freeing up left field for Mark Teahen.
– Alex Gordon is starting at third by May and is the team’s best hitter.
– Injuries to Sweeney, Sanders, or both opens up playing time for German, Shane Costa, or even Billy Butler.
– At the very least, the Royals acquire one Tier 2 starter, perhaps pushing Hernandez to the pen.
– A veteran reliever is acquired, and a couple of the guys I’ve listed go to Omaha.

I just had to get that out of the way before jumping into a closer analysis.

The Royals aren’t paying much for LaRue, so hopefully they spin him into something decent before the trading deadline and turn back to Buck.  Why wouldn’t a team like this just stick with Buck?

The right side of the infield is pretty well set, and not too shabby.  Berroa is just awful at short, but it would take a sly trade by Moore to find a replacement.  Teahen is said to be the team’s third baseman at present, even with super prospect Alex Gordon nearly ready to launch.  One of the two will shift to an outfield corner this spring once Moore figures out how to unload one of Brown/Sanders.  Brown is obviously more marketable.

German probably fills the Chone Figgins role.  The outfield is pretty much in a complete state of flux, as any success by Gathright would push DeJesus to left permanently.  Teahen could play right with Butler as the DH of the future.  That’ll be fun, but Gathright could flop plus the Royals are still stuck with Sanders, Sweeney, and Brown at the moment.

The first three spots in the rotation appear penciled in as Perez-Hudson-de la Rosa.  De la Rosa is nobody’s idea of a #3, but hey, why not give him a good ten starts and a little security to work with. Everyone would love Greinke to succeed and to start, but we’ll just have to wait and see.  Elarton won’t return until June at the earliest.  Hernandez made more starts in ’06 than any current Royal, but he posted a 6.48 ERA.  He probably gets the boot once Moore brings in a free agent.

Those targets include Gil Meche, Miguel Batista, and former Royals Jeff Suppan and Mark Redman.  My money is on Batista unless Brown can bring in a comparable guy.

The bullpen will obviously not consist of all nine guys listed.  Nelson, Ray, Wellemeyer, Gobble, and Peralta are probably in.  One veteran Joe Borowski type will be imported as well.  The Denver Post reports that Octavio Dotel has received offers from three teams to close games; the Royals are one team in a position to make that offer.

With Moore in charge, Royals fans are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.  Shealy, Teahen, DeJesus, Gordon, and Butler make for a strong, affordable offensive core.  Moore will continue hoarding young pitchers; hopefully top pick Luke Hochevar’s shoulder strain last month in the AFL was nothing serious.  For 2007, it would be ideal if vets like Brown, Sanders, LaRue, and Sweeney stay healthy and relatively productive to allow Moore to get some starting pitching back.    

Dan O’Dowd’s contract obligations:

C – Chris Iannetta – $0.38MM
C – Yorvit Torrealba – $1MM
1B – Todd Helton – $16.6MM
2B – Kaz Matsui – $1.5MM
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – $0.38MM
3B – Garrett Atkins – $0.38MM
IF – Jamey Carroll – $0.7MM
IF – Clint Barmes – $0.38MM
LF – Matt Holliday – $0.7MM
CF –
RF – Brad Hawpe – $0.38MM
OF – Cory Sullivan – $0.38MM/Jeff Baker – $0.38MM

SP – Jason Jennings – $5.5MM
SP – Jeff Francis – $0.38MM
SP – Aaron Cook – 3.05MM
SP – Byung-Hyun Kim – $2.5MM
SP –
SP – Ubaldo Jimenez – $0.38MM

RP – Brian Fuentes – $3.5MM
RP – Jeremy Affeldt – $1MM
RP – Denny Bautista – $0.38MM
RP – Ramon Ramirez – $0.38MM
RP – Manuel Corpas – $0.38MM
RP – David Cortes – $0.38MM
RP –

By my estimate the Rockies have $40.6MM locked up before raises, so let’s say $45MM for now.  Holliday alone could see his salary increase by $4MM in arbitration.  They entered the 2006 season with a $41.2MM payroll.

The Rox appear to have a capable tandem behind the plate with rookie Iannetta and 28 year-old Torrealba.  However, the team is still concerned with Torrealba’s strained shoulder, which dates back to September.  There has been talk of importing either Bengie Molina or Rod Barajas to split time with the promising but green Iannetta.

First base is set through 2011 with Helton.  His ’06 offensive performance ranked 12th among first basemen.  Maybe not worth the price, but not many guys can give you a .400 OBP.  He is taking up 35% of the payroll, however.  Helton has an out clause after ’07, but I don’t see him abandoning $69MM for four seasons. 

The middle infield is good to go, with Tulo and Matsui seemingly the main guys and Carroll playing the utility role.  Atkins trailed only Miguel Cabrera for the best offensive season for a third baseman in 2006.  He progressed beyond expectations by hitting a robust .329/.409/.556 in almost 700 PAs.

Can’t go wrong with Holliday and Hawpe at the corners, especially for the price.  I’m not sure what the plan is for 25 year-old outfielder Jeff Baker, but some projections like him quite a bit for next year.  He may steal some time from Hawpe, according to Clint Hurdle.

Of course the big need for this team is center field.  A slew of candidates have been mentioned: Aaron Rowand, Dave Roberts, Chris Burke, Jay Payton, Darin Erstad, Brady Clark, Steve Finley, Coco Crisp, and even Clint Barmes.  The only free agent I haven’t seen connected in print to Colorado is Kenny Lofton.

If O’Dowd prefers, that CF could come via trade.  Jason Jennings is generating some buzz, and reports say that the Rockies are listening to offers.  He averaged over 6.6 innings per start this season and posted a 3.78 ERA.  He’ll be just 28 in 2007.  However, free agency is around the corner and Jennings could easily post a 4.50 ERA in ’07 based on his peripherals. 

Jennings is still a hittable pitcher with subpar command right now.  I would shop him aggressively for the next month and definitely trade him before the season begins.  Last winter, Kevin Towers’s Adam Eaton situation was comparable to this.  He snagged Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez in that deal.  It’s a shame Jennings didn’t win nearly as many games as he deserved to, or his market value would be even higher.

Elsewhere in the rotation, the Rockies have talked about several guys to fill out the last slot: Josh Fogg again, Rodrigo Lopez via trade, Carl Pavano trade, or free agents Bruce Chen or John Thomson.  Thomson wouldn’t cost much and he came up through the organization.  The Rox sent Thomson to the Mets in an ’02 trade for Jay Payton.

For the sixth starter type spot, hard-throwing 23 year-old Ubaldo Jimenez could work after a fine 13 start effort at Double A this year.  Chin-Hui Tsao, rehabbing from rotator cuff surgery, could work his way back into the mix.

The pen has some live arms, but the Rockies are looking for help.  Many players have the team’s interest: Octavio Dotel, David Riske, Dan Kolb, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Williamson, Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, and even Eric Gagne.  Look for a low-level signing or two.

To sum it up, the Rockies have a center fielder and a couple of relievers in their sights.  I have my doubts that the Rockies would lock Jennings up for four or five years at $10-12MM annually, so a trade this year seems likely.  Pretty much every team wants pitching, and there are plenty good young CFs available.

Matt Holliday is Rockie property through 2009, though he hired Scott Boras this year and will probably go year-to-year for the duration of his Rockie career. The Rox had looked to lock him up last winter until he switched to Boras.