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Ha-Seong Kim Declines Mutual Option With Padres; Wandy Peralta Declines Opt-Out

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Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim declined his end of an $8MM mutual option for the 2025 season, and he’ll now take a $2MM buyout and enter free agency, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (X link).  Left-hander Wandy Peralta will be staying in San Diego for at least one more season, as Peralta will pass on his opt-out clause and remain in the four-year, $16.5MM deal he signed with the Padres last winter.

Neither decision registers as a surprise. Kim has hit .250/.336/.385 over the past three years for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he has been 6% above league average at the plate in that time. He also stole 72 bases in that stretch and provided above-average defense at shortstop, second base and third base.

His situation is a bit complicated by the fact that he underwent right labrum surgery not too long ago. His return timetable is a bit unclear but it has been suggested he is likely to miss at least part of the start of the 2025 season.

Even with that injury situation, it’s understandable that he would walk away from his mutual option at a net $6MM price point. Players coming back from injury can often still have notable earning power. Michael Conforto secured a two-year, $36MM deal from the Giants after missing an entire season. Rhys Hoskins got two years and $34MM from the Brewers after his own missed campaign. Both players had the ability to opt out after one season, though neither eventually did so.

The situations aren’t entirely analogous. Both Conforto and Hoskins were expected to be healthy in the first seasons of their deals, which won’t be the case with Kim. Perhaps that puts his earning power a bit below those two, but it still makes it sensible for him to turn down his option today. Whether he can get a two-year deal with an opt-out or a more straightforward one-year pillow deal, he should be able to get past the $6MM he’s leaving on the table today.

For the Padres, they will now have to figure out what to do at shortstop. When Kim was hurt late in the year, they moved Xander Bogaerts from second to short. It’s unclear whether they would want to do that for the long term as they just decided a year ago to have Bogaerts take on the less-demanding second base spot. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop before getting moved to center field for 2024. He could switch back but performed so well in center that the club might decide to keep him there.

The free agent market is headlined by Willy Adames but the Padres have some payroll limitations and probably aren’t the most logical landing spot for him. The trade market could feature Bo Bichette but it’s unclear if the Blue Jays will make him available.

As for Peralta, he signed with the Padres last winter on a four-year deal with a $16.5MM guarantee and opt-outs after each season. He went on to have a pretty mediocre season, despite a respectable 3.99 earned run average. His 52.9% ground ball rate was still above league average but his worst in a full season since 2019. His strikeout rate fell to 13.6% this year after being in the 18-23% range in the previous five years.

It it weren’t for a fairly low .233 batting average on balls in play, he would have allowed more runs to score. His 5.46 FIP and 4.57 SIERA disagree on how bad things were under the hood but both suggest the ERA is misleading. After that performance, he’ll stick with the Padres and hope for a better season, with the chance of returning to free agency again a year from now.

Daniel Hudson Announces Retirement

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Following the Dodgers’ decisive victory over the Yankees in Game 5 of the World Series last night, veteran reliever Daniel Hudson announced to reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that he will retire from playing as a champion. The veteran of 15 big league seasons has played for the Dodgers, Padres, Nationals, Blue Jays, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and White Sox throughout his lengthy career.

Hudson, 37, was selected by Chicago in the fifth round of the 2008 draft. Then a starting pitcher, the right-hander was a fast riser to the majors who made his big league debut just one year after being drafted, in 2009. He made just nine appearances for the team that drafted him across two seasons before being shipped to the Diamondbacks in a deal for Edwin Jackson. Hudson slotted into the Diamondbacks rotation down the stretch and put on a dazzling performance for fans in Arizona, with a 1.69 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 11 starts spread across 79 2/3 innings of work.

That dominant late-season performance suggested the Snakes had landed a quality starter ready for a full season’s workload in the majors. The right-hander’s first full season with the Dbacks seemed to support that, as he posted a solid 3.49 ERA while logging 222 innings across 33 starts for the club in 2011. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse from there. Hudson’s 2012 season saw him post disastrous results through nine starts before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery that July. He’d miss the entire 2013 season while rehabbing and made it back to a big league mound only at the tail end of the 2014 season.

Hudson’s elbow troubles marked the end of his career as a starter, but his time in the majors was just getting started as he began to fashion himself into a reliever. His first season out of the bullpen in Arizona was relatively pedestrian, as the then-28-year-old pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 67 2/3 innings of work while striking out 24.5% of opponents. It was more of the same for the right-hander over the next several years, as he bounced from team to team as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever. From 2015 to 2018, Hudson suited up for Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles with rather pedestrian results. His 96 ERA+ was just below league average during that time, and he struck out 23.3% of opponents.

Things changed for Hudson in 2019, however. After latching on with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, Hudson looked quite good for the rebuilding club in the first half of the season as he posted a solid 3.00 ERA in 48 innings of work. That solid performance was enough to draw interest from the Nationals, who at the time were in a tight race with the Phillies, Brewers, and Cubs for two NL Wild Card spots. The bullpen had been a sore spot for D.C. throughout the year, but Hudson helped to change that with a dominant late-season run that saw him post an eye-popping 1.44 ERA in 24 late-season innings for the Nationals.

That incredible work led Hudson to join closer Sean Doolittle as one of only a handful of trusted pitchers on Dave Martinez’s staff during the postseason. Hudson managed scoreless appearances in seven of his nine outings for the Nationals during that playoff run, highlighted by his save in the NL Wild Card Game against the Brewers to and his scoreless frame of work to close out Game 7 of the World Series and earn the Nats their first World Series championship in club history. After securing his first ring, Hudson remained with the Nationals for two more seasons. After a difficult 2020 campaign, he pitched well enough during the 2021 season to get traded to the Padres down the stretch, though San Diego ultimately missed the postseason.

The final act of Hudson’s career began in 2022 when he signed on to return to the Dodgers. During his second stint in Los Angeles, Hudson was nothing short of electric when on the mound, with a 2.69 ERA a 26.9% strikeout rate when healthy enough to take the mound. Staying healthy proved to be a challenge, however, as ACL and MCL injuries limited the veteran to just 27 1/3 innings of work over the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. He remained with the Dodgers on a minor league deal last winter, however, and was part of the club’s Opening Day bullpen. Now that he was finally healthy, the 37-year-old impressed with a 3.00 ERA in 63 innings of work while collecting ten saves with the Dodgers throughout the year. While a difficult outing in Game 4 of the World Series skewed his overall postseason numbers, Hudson was a generally effective relief arm for the club throughout their playoff run this year, throwing scoreless frames in five of his seven outings en route to his second career championship.

Altogether, Hudson posted a 3.74 ERA (111 ERA+) and a nearly-matching 3.76 FIP over 855 1/3 career innings during the regular season (to go with 21 postseason innings). He won 65 games and saved 43 while striking out 817 batters and appearing in 537 total contests. Those of us at MLB Trade Rumors salute Hudson on a fine career and wish him all the best in whatever comes next for the two-time World Series champion.

Nationals Asked About Jackson Merrill During 2022 Juan Soto Trade Talks

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As the Padres and Nationals were negotiating the blockbuster Juan Soto trade in advance of the 2022 trade deadline, the Nats were able to obtain such top-tier young talents as CJ Abrams, James Wood, and MacKenzie Gore as part of the six-player trade package.  One player Washington didn’t land was Jackson Merrill, though Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Nationals asked about Merrill as part of the trade talks.

Though Merrill was the 27th overall pick of the 2021 draft, his prospect stock didn’t really start to take off until he started to post big numbers for the Padres’ rookie league and A-ball affiliates during the 2022 season.  In fact, injuries limited Merrill to only 25 games in 2022 at the time of the Soto trade, so the Nationals weren’t working off a lot of scouting information when they checked into Merrill’s possible availability.  Though the Friars gave up a lot to bring Soto to San Diego, it looks like they made a canny move in keeping Merrill, as his tremendous rookie season helped lead the Padres to the NLDS this season.  Merrill hit .292/.326/.500 with 24 home runs over 593 plate appearances, and (even more remarkably) played strong defense as San Diego’s everyday center fielder despite never before playing center during his pro career.

Fernando Valenzuela Passes Away

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Fernando Valenzuela passed away on Tuesday evening, a little more than a week shy of his 64th birthday. Major League Baseball will honor his memory with the World Series beginning at Dodger Stadium this weekend.

“On behalf of the Dodger organization, we profoundly mourn the passing of Fernando,” team president and CEO Stan Kasten said in a statement. “He is one of the most influential Dodgers ever and belongs on the Mount Rushmore of franchise heroes. He galvanized the fan base with the Fernandomania season of 1981 and has remained close to our hearts ever since, not only as a player but also as a broadcaster. He has left us all too soon. Our deepest condolences go out to his wife Linda and his family.”

Commissioner Rob Manfred released a statement of his own. “Fernando Valenzuela was one of the most impactful players of his generation. With his distinctive pitching style, the Dodger left-hander’s rookie season generated so much excitement in the U.S. and his native Mexico that it became commonly referred to as ‘Fernandomania.’ His 1981 season ranks among the most decorated pitching years of all-time as Fernando was the National League Rookie of the Year, the NL Cy Young Award winner, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series Champion.”

As both Kasten and Manfred referenced, Valenzuela was best known for his electric rookie season. The Mexican-born hurler signed with the Dodgers in 1979. While he was just 18 at the time, it didn’t take long before he pitched his way to Dodger Stadium. Valenzuela made all of 30 appearances in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut as a September call-up in 1980. Pitching out of the bullpen, the 19-year-old fired 17 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run to close the season. It was a preview of the phenomenon to come.

The Dodgers tabbed Valenzuela as their Opening Day starter in 1981 after Jerry Reuss suffered an injury. Valenzuela tossed a five-hit shutout against the Astros in his first career start. He followed up with a 10-strikeout complete game in a 7-1 victory over the Giants. He’d rattle off three straight shutouts thereafter, recording two more double-digit strikeout performances in the process. He closed out April with a 5-0 record and one run allowed in 45 innings.

Valenzuela’s shutout streak was snapped when he “merely” threw a one-run complete game win over the Expos during his first appearance of May. He blanked the Mets with 11 strikeouts in his next appearance, then tossed another complete game win (this time with two earned runs) against Montreal. Valenzuela completed and won each of his first eight big league starts while running a cumulative 0.50 earned run average — all at age 20.

That sheer dominance, which came on the back of a wiffle ball-style screwball, was only a part of Valenzuela’s immense popularity. A young Mexican pitcher performing at an historic level in Southern California made him an icon among Latin American fans, in particular. Valenzuela’s rookie year quickly became the stuff of legend, and the “Fernandomania” moniker that it took on remains a key chapter in MLB history more than four decades later. It was a captivating performance the likes of which will probably never be seen again with teams keeping a much closer eye on young pitchers’ workloads.

Of course, Valenzuela’s career stretched well beyond those magical two months. His rookie year was interrupted by the player’s strike that stopped play between the middle of June and the second week of August. The Dodgers, who were 36-21 at the time of the work stoppage, were declared the first-half winners of the NL West title. They knocked off the second-half NL West champion Astros in a hastily implemented Division Series — the Wild Card wouldn’t be introduced until more than a decade later — before toppling Montreal in the NLCS.

That set up a World Series showdown with the Yankees. Los Angeles defeated New York in what had been the most recent Fall Classic matchup between the behemoths. Valenzuela got the win with a four-run complete game in Game 3, the first of four straight victories for the Dodgers after they dropped the first two in the Bronx.

It was an ideal ending to one of the greatest rookie seasons the game has ever seen. Valenzuela turned in a 2.48 ERA across an NL-leading 192 1/3 innings. His eight shutouts and 180 strikeouts both led all major league pitchers. He topped future Hall of Famer Tim Raines for Rookie of the Year and edged out two more legends — Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton — to win the Cy Young. He finished fifth in MVP balloting and picked up a Silver Slugger for good measure. Valenzuela tossed 40 2/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball over his five postseason starts.

The rookie season was so exceptional that it necessarily represented the peak of his career. Yet that in no way diminishes what he achieved throughout the 1980s. The southpaw remained a force atop the L.A. rotation for most of the decade. Valenzuela made the All-Star team in each of his first six full seasons. He topped 250 innings every year between 1982-87.

He fired 285 innings of 2.87 ERA ball in his second year, tying for third in Cy Young balloting in the process. He’d earn two more top-five finishes in the middle of the decade — including a runner-up placement behind Mike Scott during an ’86 season in which he struck out 242 hitters and led the Senior Circuit with 21 wins. The Dodgers made the postseason in 1983 and ’85, losing in the NLCS both times. They returned to the World Series in 1988 and defeated the A’s in five games. Valenzuela missed that series due to injury but collected a second ring after throwing 142 1/3 regular season innings.

Valenzuela remained with the Dodgers for another few seasons, but his production waned. The Dodgers moved on after he allowed an NL-most 104 earned runs in 1990. It wasn’t a good year overall, though Valenzuela had his final highlight in a Dodger uniform when he no-hit the Cardinals that June. He bounced around between the Mexican League and MLB for another few seasons, most notably spending three years with the Padres. He made one final trip to the postseason with San Diego in 1996 and finished his MLB playing career the following season. Valenzuela made a brief return to the mound in his home country in the mid-2000s.

All told, he pitched in parts of 17 MLB seasons. Valenzuela suited up for six teams, though he’ll obviously be remembered most for his time in Dodger blue. He finished his career with a 3.54 ERA in nearly 3000 innings. He won 173 games, struck out more than 2000 hitters, and tossed 113 complete games (31 of which were shutouts). His rate stats, while still impressive, are diminished somewhat by his late-career struggles. During his 1981-86 peak, he turned in a 2.97 ERA with 1258 strikeouts and 84 complete games in exactly 200 regular season starts. He was also a solid hitter for a pitcher, running a career .200 average with 10 home runs while winning a pair of Silver Sluggers.

Valenzuela’s peak might have been Hall of Fame worthy, but he didn’t maintain it long enough to garner serious consideration from the BBWAA. He fell off the ballot in his second year of eligibility in 2004. Valenzuela was inducted into the Dodgers’ Ring of Honor. The franchise officially retired his #34 last year. He remained a key figure in the organization as a Spanish-language broadcaster through this season.

The news will cast a shadow over the upcoming World Series, though the Dodgers’ presence provides an opportunity for the organization to honor Valenzuela’s legacy on the biggest stage. MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, former teammates and the countless fans whose lives he impacted.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Preller Discusses Padres’ Shortstop Situation

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The Padres find themselves in an unfamiliar position. San Diego could be on the lookout for a shortstop despite their affinity for collecting players with experience at the position. Most of those players (i.e. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth) moved off shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim will be a free agent when he declines his end of a mutual option in favor of a $2MM buyout. Kim is among the most difficult free agents to project after his season was cut short by a labrum injury that required surgery.

San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller addressed the position as part of a conference call with reporters on Monday (links via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Preller said the Padres “would love to bring (Kim) back” but acknowledged the uncertain timeline on his injury.

The Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee wrote a few weeks ago that Kim was aiming for a return in April or May. Preller left the situation more open-ended. The executive noted that Kim isn’t slated to begin a throwing program until close to the start of the season. As for a return to game action, Preller loosely floated “May, June, July” as viable outcomes.

It’s clearly too early in the rehab process for the Padres to narrow down a specific target. That uncertainty should all but close the book on the chance of San Diego issuing Kim a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old infielder would probably accept a $21.05MM salary, which is too much for the Padres to risk with Kim looking very likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

Preller and his staff also face notable free agent losses in the bullpen (Tanner Scott), left field (Jurickson Profar) and behind the plate (Kyle Higashioka). The relief group should be strong enough to weather Scott’s departure, but the Padres will need to address a few spots in the lineup while also finding a replacement for the injured Joe Musgrove in the rotation. That could make it difficult to retain Kim.

Even if the Padres were to bring him back, they’d need a short-term replacement while he completes his rehab. If he walks, they’ll need a permanent answer. Bogaerts moved back from second base for the stretch run. The Padres seem to prefer him at the keystone, though they might not have any better options at shortstop.

Machado and Cronenworth haven’t played there in years. Nor has Tatis, who has been a full-time right fielder since returning from the injuries and suspension that wiped out his 2022 season. Merrill developed as a shortstop prospect before learning center field on the fly. The 21-year-old immediately became one of the sport’s top all-around center fielders.

Preller didn’t seem keen on the idea of moving Tatis or Merrill back to the infield. “They’d probably love that possibility. They always joke around — ’Whatever’s needed,’” the baseball ops president said. “The great part of those guys is they’re talented athletes, they can play different spots. … But Tati winning the Platinum [Glove] two years ago, and Jackson doing a tremendous job in center field this year, we know that they’re really good at what they do in the outfield.”

There hasn’t been much serious discussion about Tatis moving back to shortstop. It’s a plausible scenario for Merrill, who only moved off shortstop in deference to Kim and seems as if he can comfortably adjust to whatever position the Padres ask of him. Yet as Preller noted, it’s tempting to leave Merrill in center field with how well he played this year. San Diego doesn’t have an obvious in-house candidate to take over in center if Merrill were to come back onto the infield. They’d probably need to acquire a center fielder and the free agent market at the position is extremely thin. It’s not much deeper at shortstop, where only Willy Adames and Kim, if healthy, profile as regulars.

Padres Plan To Discuss Extension With Mike Shildt

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Padres skipper Mike Shildt originally signed a two-year contract when hired to manage the club last offseason, but the club already has interest in keeping him around for a longer period. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller tells the Padres beat that the front office will sit down with Shildt and several members of the coaching staff to see if they can “line up” on a deal to keep them around on longer-term deals (X link via Annie Heilbrunn).

Under the 56-year-old Shildt, the Padres played at a 93-69 pace, good for second in the National League West and a Wild Card berth in the postseason. Shildt’s Padres topped the Braves 2-0 in the first round of postseason play before taking the archrival Dodgers to their limit in a thrilling, back-and-forth five-game National League Division Series. Ultimately, a Friars club that scored 21 runs over the first three games of the series was held scoreless in Games 4 and 5 alike.

Despite that disheartening finish to the season, Shildt’s first year in San Diego has to be considered a success. The Padres’ record improved by 11 games, and San Diego returned to postseason play after missing out on the heels of an 82-80 showing a year prior. As importantly, Shildt quickly won the clubhouse over. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to several Padres veterans late in the season — many of whom have been with the team for multiple prior managers — and each took the opportunity to heap praise onto the environment and culture that Shildt had brought to the clubhouse. Joe Musgrove, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado have all played under three different managers in San Diego (four, in Machado’s case), and all effused praise for the job Shildt has done in his first season at the helm.

Of course, while Shildt was new to the Padres organization this season, this certainly wasn’t his first experience managing. He spent three and a half seasons leading the Cardinals’ dugout, and his dismissal in St. Louis registered as a legitimate shock following the 2021 season. Shildt had originally joined the Cardinals as a scout in 2003 before getting into minor league coaching and managing. In 2017, he was added to the big league staff as a quality control coach. He eventually became the team’s third base coach, then bench coach, and then interim manager following Mike Matheny’s firing. He soon shed the “interim” label and was extended on a three-year deal. He was named National League Manager of the Year in 2019.

In the weeks prior to Shildt’s own firing in St. Louis, the Cardinals had gone on an astonishing 17-game September winning streak to come roaring back into postseason contention. They lost a then one-game Wild Card date with the Dodgers, but Shildt was generally seen as an extension candidate following that 2021 campaign. Instead, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” in cutting ties with Shildt and promoting current skipper Oli Marmol to the post.

Shildt landed on his feet quickly. He took a job in the Commissioner’s Office, working in on-field operations alongside former Marlins general manager Michael Hill. Just six weeks later, he was hired as a player development consultant for the Padres and allowed to work in both roles simultaneously. San Diego had previously interviewed him for their managerial vacancy which wound up going to Bob Melvin, but Shildt received another interview two years later and this time landed the job on his current two-year contract.

Barring an extension, Shildt would head into next year as the proverbial and dreaded “lame duck” manager on an expiring contract, so it’s sensible enough that the Padres — who’ve now employed Shildt in some capacity for three years — are hopeful of solidifying his standing within the organization.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Should The Padres Move Adrián Morejón Back To The Rotation?

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Left-hander Adrián Morejón just wrapped up the best season of his major league career, at least so far. He had appeared in each of the seasons from 2019 to 2023 but never reached 35 innings pitched in any of those. In 2024, he made 60 relief appearances, logging 63 2/3 frames. He allowed 2.83 earned runs per nine innings in that time. His 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate were all better than league averages. He added another two appearances in the postseason.

Now the Padres and Morejón will have to decide what’s next. The southpaw came up as a starting pitching prospect and was highly regarded as a minor leaguer. The Cuban lefty secured an $11MM signing bonus from the Padres in 2016, before the league introduced the hard-capped international amateur spending system that currently exists. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the league from 2017 to 2021, with Morejón getting as high as #52 going into 2019.

But his trajectory slowed down since that peak of his prospect hype, largely due to injuries. In 2019, he made his major league debut but missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic and there were no minor league games, limiting him to just nine appearances and less than 20 innings that year. In 2021, he required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. He was off the injured list by June of 2022 but missed time in the second half of that year due to shoulder inflammation. In 2023, he spent time on the IL due to a left elbow sprain and right knee inflammation, limiting him to just nine major league innings and less than 30 on the farm.

With all of those injuries, the Padres understandably kept him in a relief role this year. As mentioned up top, he stayed healthy and thrived in the bullpen. Based on the way the past few years went, the club might be tempted to just keep Morejón in the bullpen. With Tanner Scott set to reach free agency, Morejón arguably projects as the club’s best southpaw reliever for 2025, ahead of Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui.

But there’s upside to considering the alternative, with Garrett Crochet being a best-case scenario example of what’s possible. Like Morejón, Crochet was a top prospect who had spent the early parts of his career either hurt or pitching in relief. The White Sox stretched him out for a rotation role in 2024 with fantastic results, as he posted a 3.58 ERA over 146 innings. Even those numbers sell him short, as that club’s poor defense seemingly contributed to a .318 batting average on balls in play for Crochet this year. He struck out 35.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.5% clip and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. If it weren’t for that high BABIP, he probably would have kept some more runs off the board, which is why his 2.69 FIP and 2.53 SIERA were far better than his ERA.

That’s not to say that the Padres should consider such a performance from Morejón to be likely, but it demonstrates the proverbial pot of gold they could chase. Crochet is now a borderline ace and he will likely be the top trade candidate of this offseason, with the White Sox looking at bringing back a king’s ransom in terms of young prospects.

Morejón threw five different pitches in 2024, suggesting there’s potentially still a starter’s repertoire in there, without him relying on any one pitch too much. His sinker, slider and four-seamer were all thrown between 23 and 36% of the time, while he also sprinkled in a splitter 7.6% of the time and a sweeper at a 2.6% clip. That helped him avoid the extreme splits that can often doom a pitcher to a specialized relief role. Lefties hit .255/.303/.367 off Morejón this year while righties were only slightly better at .257/.321/.405.

Due to Morejón spending so much time on the IL, he has managed to accrue more than four years of major league service time. That means that, despite his limited track record, he’s slated for free agency after 2026. But the missed time has also prevented him from increasing his earning power. He made $850K this year, barely above the $740K league minimum. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest bump to $1.8MM in 2025. He’d be able to secure one more arbitration raise for 2026 before hitting the open market.

That price point is important for the Padres. Due in part to the collapse of their broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, the club had to cut the payroll last winter. They flipped Juan Soto to the Yankees to help them duck under the competitive balance tax while also adding some needed starting pitching depth.

Starting pitching is again a concern for the Friars going into 2025, with the recent news that Joe Musgrove is set to miss all of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish give the club a strong front three but they have question marks at the back end. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half but an ugly 8.10 ERA in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA this year but with a tepid 14.4% strikeout rate and he also had an 8.21 ERA in his Triple-A starts. Musgrove will hopefully be back by 2026 but King and Cease are both slated for free agency after 2025, meaning there’s even less certainty in the future.

Improving the rotation will undoubtedly be a focus for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller this winter but the budget might again be an issue. The Friars already have an estimated $231MM CBT number for next year, according to RosterResource, just shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Assuming the club wants to avoid the tax again in 2025, that doesn’t give Preller a lot to work with and even back-end starters often get eight-figure deals in free agency. Last winter, Kyle Gibson got $13MM on a one-year deal, Lance Lynn got $11MM, Wade Miley and Alex Wood each got $8.5MM while Martín Pérez got $8MM.

In addition to filling out the rotation, Preller will be looking to replace lost offensive production. Each of Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, David Peralta and Kyle Higashioka are slated to reach free agency, putting some notable dents in the lineup.

Given the club’s tight budget and long to-do list, it would be a great solution if Morejón could become a starter next year. That would be far cheaper than filling a rotation spot via the open market. There’s also the trade market but the Padres have sent out a lot of prospects in recent years and would probably love to avoid doing more of that, if possible.

But despite all the attraction of Morejón jumping into the rotation, there’s also the risk of another injury cropping up. In that scenario, it’s entirely possible that the Padres fall short of upgrading the rotation and also subtract a key lefty from the bullpen mix.

What do you think the Padres should do? Give him a shot at the rotation or stick with what’s working? Have your say in the poll below!

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres won 93 games and went into October as a trendy pick for a long playoff run. Their bats stalled out in the final two games against the Dodgers, sending them into an offseason that could see a decent amount of turnover with a handful of important free agents.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • LHP Wandy Peralta can opt out of final three years and $13.15MM on his deal
  • Team, SS Ha-Seong Kim hold $8MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

  •  Owe $12.24MM to Red Sox as condition of Eric Hosmer trade

2025 financial commitments: $138MM
Total future commitments: $1.117 billion

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Wade, Patiño

Free Agents

It seems like every offseason in San Diego results in a significant shakeup. This winter will probably be no exception, even if the Padres aren't going to make a single move that is as impactful as last winter's Juan Soto/Michael King blockbuster. Between a hefty arbitration class, a number of free agents who played key roles in 2024, and a late-season injury that dealt a hit to their rotation, there's a lot for the front office to address.

The offseason kicks off with option and qualifying offer decisions. There's not much intrigue with San Diego's pair of option calls. Wandy Peralta will forego his chance to opt out of the remaining $13.15MM on his free agent deal. Ha-Seong Kim will collect a $2MM buyout on his mutual option and test the market.

San Diego probably won't issue a QO to any of their free agents. The midseason trade renders Tanner Scott ineligible, not that the Friars were likely to offer a $21.05MM commitment to a reliever anyhow. Kim once seemed like an easy call for the QO, but his late-season labrum surgery makes that too risky. The only other candidate would be Jurickson Profar, who'll be one of the tougher free agents to value after a career year. If the Padres expect Profar to repeat this year's production, he'd be worth the QO price. Profar's career has been wildly inconsistent, though, and there's probably not enough payroll space to offer the first-time All-Star more than $21MM while addressing multiple holes on the roster.

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Latest On White Sox Managerial Search

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TODAY: The White Sox also have interest in Rangers bench coach/offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker and Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann, Fegan and Nelson report.  Chicago may have to wait until the NLCS is over to speak with Lehmann or another reported target in Los Angeles first base coach Clayton McCullough, who 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine cited as “a leading candidate” for the White Sox job back in September.

OCTOBER 16: While not the biggest piece of White Sox-related news today, the club’s more immediate piece of short-term business is finding a new manager.  James Fegan and Josh Nelson of Sox Machine report that Tigers bench coach George Lombard and Padres special assistant A.J. Ellis are two of the candidates being considered in a still-evolving search.

This isn’t the first time that the 49-year-old Lombard has been linked to a managerial opening, as he previously interviewed with the Pirates in 2019 (before Derek Shelton was hired) and for the Tigers in 2020.  Though Detroit ended up going with A.J. Hinch as its new skipper, the Tigers were impressed enough by Lombard to bring him aboard as the bench coach soon after Hinch was hired, and Lombard has subsequently spent the last four seasons in the role.

Lombard’s playing career saw him appear in parts of six seasons from 1998-2006, and he hung up his cleats following a 2009 season spent in the minors and in independent ball.  He then worked in the Red Sox farm system for the next six seasons as a coach, roving coordinator, and manager — a two-season stint with the Red Sox rookie league affiliate in 2011-12 represents Lombard’s only experience as a manager.  After a few months working with the Braves as a minor league coordinator in 2015, Lombard quickly moved onto a new job as the Dodgers’ first base coach, and spent the 2016-20 seasons as part of the L.A. coaching staff.

In a coincidental overlap, Ellis was still playing for the Dodgers in 2016 during Lombard’s first season.  Ellis spent nine of his 11 MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and then after retiring following the 2018 season, stayed in the NL West by taking on an assistant role within the Padres’ baseball operations department.  The special assistant title is a nebulous one that tends to vary greatly in responsibilities based on the individual’s specialties and the club’s needs, but Fegan writes that Ellis has done “plenty of roving player development work” over his six years in San Diego.

Moving into a regular job in the dugout would therefore represent an entirely new frontier for the 43-year-old Ellis, who has no formal managerial or coaching experience.  Of course, Ellis’ long career as a catcher shouldn’t be discounted, given the long line of ex-catchers moving into managerial roles.  As Fegan notes, Ellis had a reputation as a leader on the field during his playing days, and the White Sox could be interested in seeing if Ellis can make as a smooth a transition from catching to managing as Stephen Vogt did for the division rival Guardians.

Neither Lombard or Ellis have ever crossed paths with Chicago GM Chris Getz as a teammate or co-worker, nor were Lombard or Ellis ever former members of the White Sox organization.  This fits with Getz’s prior statement that the White Sox were looking to bring in a new voice as the club’s next manager, though interim manager Grady Sizemore would receive some consideration.

Beyond these names, former Angels manager Phil Nevin, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso are known to be on Chicago’s list of candidates.  While the Sox still want to talk to some coaches on teams currently playing in the postseason, some preliminary culling has already started to take place, as Fegan writes that the White Sox have already eliminated some candidates from consideration.  A source tells Fegan that former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker is “still alive” in the search, which is no surprise given that Schumaker has long been viewed as a preferred choice for the job.

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