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John Seidler To Take Over As Padres’ Control Person

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Just over a year after the sudden passing of Padres owner Peter Seidler, the organization has its new control person. While Seidler’s business partner Eric Kutsenda took over as interim control person in the immediate aftermath of Seidler’s death, he’ll now be succeeded more permanently by John Seidler according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Kutsenda will remain part of the organization and the rest of the team’s senior leadership will remain in their current roles. Seidler’s ascent to title of control person will need to receive the approval from the league before it becomes official.

Seidler, 65, is the brother of the Padres’ previous owner and is among the members of the Seidler family who collectively hold what Acee notes is believed to be a 45% stake in the team. Previous reports have indicated that Peter Seidler intended for his family to maintain ownership of the Padres for generations to come and that the club intended to proceed with that plan following his death. John Seidler taking the reins of the organization appears to be the latest move toward making that plan a reality, and Acee added that a source familiar with the family’s plans confirmed to him that the Seidler family intends to own the Padres for “a long time.”

“Since Peter’s passing, Eric Kutsenda has served as our interim control person,” the Padres said in a statement provided to Acee. “Peter’s youngest brother Matt, as trustee of Peter’s trust, is pleased to announce that John Seidler, Peter’s oldest sibling, an accomplished entrepreneur and business executive, will be the Padres’ next control person, pending approval by Major League Baseball.

Peter never viewed the Padres as ‘his’ team. Instead, he saw the team as an asset of the community of which he was a faithful steward. John shares Peter’s vision and will continue to strengthen and nurture this great franchise, its players, fans and employees, and the entire San Diego community.”

Importantly, Acee notes that the upcoming changing of the guard at the top of the Padres organization is not expected to impact the club’s plans on the field in terms of payroll. In its final years under Peter Seidler, the Padres organization had operated hefty payrolls in hopes of speeding up the club’s timeline for contention, but starting last offseason began to lower payroll to something closer to the middle of the pack. Acee adds that the Padres believe that their current model for payroll is “more sustainable” and that it figures to continue going forward with John Seidler now at the helm.

For the 2025 season, that likely means the club’s payroll will need to come down as compared to current projections. RosterResource projects a $210MM payroll for the club next season as things stand, which is $41MM higher than last year’s $169MM figure. While previous reporting has indicated that the club has room to increase the budget beyond its 2024 level, that increase is expected to be marginal and leave the club to ponder trading pricey arbitration-level players such as Dylan Cease and Luis Arráez.

MLBTR Podcast: Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres Have Considered Luis Arráez Trade

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The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was reported this week that they have been exploring the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease and now Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they have discussed trading infielder Luis Arráez. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arráez and Xander Bogaerts as well.

It was reported this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but RosterResource currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. It’s not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acee’s report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by Leodalis De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable.

That’s a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. It’s a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing Jurickson Profar for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act.

Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all making big money but those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arráez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM.

That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diego’s payroll by a notable amount.

It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to miss most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. There’s a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting Roki Sasaki would be ideal since he’s very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but there’s no guarantees there and it will be another month before there’s clarity on the situation.

One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and Seth Lugo before. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays that Preller has identified Adrián Morejón, Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek as candidates for such a move.

MLBTR looked into the possibility of stretching out Morejón in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, tossing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025.

Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejón but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejón’s injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but there’s obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him.

With Arráez, it’s a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth from left to right. Finding a passable first baseman for less than what Arráez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arráez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana or Justin Turner for less money.

But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arráez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arráez is a fairly limited player since he’s not a strong defender, doesn’t walk much and doesn’t provide power. He’s certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggressive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arráez despite having essentially the same projected salary.

The Bogaerts possibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. He’s also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but that’s still an underwater deal.

Bogaerts is three years older than Willy Adames, who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. He’s also coming off a down year in which he missed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to Ha-Seong Kim, though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically possible but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesn’t have any more clear-cut everyday options.

Speculatively speaking, it’s a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winter’s budget crunch but didn’t get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023.

He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but that’s less than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unless they are willing to play Arráez there, but free agency features Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and other possible replacements.

There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next year’s club, but it’s at least a position he’s familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arráez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements.

2024 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.

Here are this year’s picks…

  1. White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
  2. Rockies: pass
  3. Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
  4. Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
  5. Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
  6. Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
  7. Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
  8. Pirates: pass
  9. Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
  10. Rangers: pass
  11. Giants: pass
  12. Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
  13. Red Sox: pass
  14. Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
  15. Cardinals: pass
  16. Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
  17. Mariners: pass
  18. Royals: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: pass
  21. Mets: pass
  22. D-backs: pass
  23. Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
  24. Orioles: pass
  25. Guardians: pass
  26. Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
  27. Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
  28. Yankees: pass
  29. Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
  30. Dodgers: pass

Second round (all but one club passed)

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.

Nolan Arenado Willing To Approve Trades To Six Teams

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As Nolan Arenado’s trade market continues to percolate, the no-trade clause in the third baseman’s contract puts Arenado and his camp in the driver’s seat when it comes to determining whether or not he’ll leave the Cardinals.  MLB.com’s John Denton reports that Arenado would okay a deal to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox.  It isn’t known if these are the only six clubs on what Denton describes as Arenado’s “wish list,” or if Arenado could be amenable to deals to any other clubs in the right circumstances.

Agent Joel Wolfe discussed his client’s situation with reporters (including Denton, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) today at the Winter Meetings, and implied that Arenado’s list of potential teams is “bigger than you would think.”  The chief factor in Arenado’s decision-making is finding “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

This all being said, Wolfe noted that Arenado is “not going to go just to go,” or “approve and move his family and go play somewhere that would…sidestepping” into a situation no better than his current spot in St. Louis.  Wolfe said he and Arenado have been in regular dialogue with Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, with Mozeliak floating some teams that have already been dismissed as “hard no’s of where he’d prefer not to go.”

Earlier reports indicated that three unknown “mid-market” clubs also had interest in Arenado’s services, so these could be some of the teams Arenado has already vetoed since the six teams on his list are bigger spenders.  The Yankees had also been linked to Arenado and Goold reports that the Cardinals were in touch with the Bronx Bombers about the third baseman.  As Jones notes, the Yankees seem like a fit on paper given their need at third base and the presence of Arenado’s good friend and old Rockies teammates DJ LeMahieu, but it remains to be seen if the Yankees are still on Arenado’s radar.

New York’s other team could also have an opening at the hot corner depending on how the Mets choose to deploy Mark Vientos, or whether or not the Mets re-sign Pete Alonso or add another big first base bat.  The Phillies likewise have an incumbent third baseman in Alec Bohm, but Bohm’s name has been mentioned in several trade rumors as one of the big-league roster pieces Philadelphia is reportedly open to moving to address other needs.

The Red Sox and Padres were more speculatively linked as suitors a few weeks ago, and Goold reports that St. Louis has already been in contact with these two clubs about Arenado.  Boston’s interest could hinge on whether or not they’d move Rafael Devers off third base, while Arenado’s own apparent willingness to leave his longtime third-base position might be related to his interest in joining the Padres (as San Diego already has a star third baseman in Manny Machado).

Wolfe addressed his client’s offer of a position change as a way to get in front of any awkward questions from a team’s end on the subject.  “The way he phrased it, ‘I’ll play first,’ sometimes [teams] don’t want to ask a player to do that,” Wolfe said.  “So he wanted to offer it and say, ‘I’m happy to play first, I can move around and play third.’ Nolan was like, ‘I’ll play shortstop, I’ll do whatever, but I’m not insulted to go play first, and I can win a Gold Glove over there, if that’s what it takes.’ ”

Since Arenado is from Southern California, it shouldn’t be ignored that the Padres, Dodgers, and Angels are all on his approval list, though Wolfe said Arenado has no geographic preference about his next destination.  It could be argued that the Angels might be on Arenado’s list solely due to location, as a team coming off nine straight losing seasons hardly seems to match Arenado’s preference for a team ready to win.

A trade to the Dodgers seems off the table, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Katie Woo hear from sources that “a deal for Arenado is not a possibility the organization has considered.”  L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes made a point of saying Monday that Max Muncy was going to remain as the team’s regular third baseman, and a position switch wouldn’t much help Arenado find a spot amidst the crowded Dodgers infield.

It remains to be seen if any of Arenado’s preferred teams may or may not want to bring the eight-time All-Star into the fold, though even in the event of mutual interest, there’s also the matter of working out a trade that is also acceptable to the Cardinals.  Other complications include Arenado’s age (he turns 34 in April), his declining power over the last two seasons, and the $74MM ($10MM covered by the Rockies) in salary owed over the remaining three years of his contract.

Padres “Exploring” Dylan Cease’s Trade Market

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As the Padres face payroll constraints amid an offseason where starting pitching has been at a premium, the possibility of San Diego fielding interest on right-hander Dylan Cease emerged earlier today with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggesting that the club is anywhere from actively “trying to unload” the right-hander to merely “open to offers” on him. This evening, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin characterized the situation slightly differently, reporting that the club is “at least exploring” Cease’s trade value but also cautioning that San Diego “prefers” to keep Cease in the fold and a trade is not considered likely at this time.

The Padres have plenty of needs this winter, including help in the outfield, starting rotation, and behind the plate. Dealing Cease from a 2025 rotation where he projects to feature prominently alongside Yu Darvish and Michael King would be a substantial hit to an already thin rotation mix, of course, even with with Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Adrian Morejon, Bryan Hoeing, and Stephen Kolek as potential back-end options available internally. It’s for that reason Lin reports the club would seek “multiple controllable players,” including “one or more” starting pitchers. If San Diego were unable to secure enough rotation help from a Cease trade, Lin adds, then they would likely look to flip those players to land other rotation pieces.

Given the club’s rotation needs, it may raise some eyebrows that the club could consider trading Cease even if they don’t receive controllable pitching in return. The logic behind that possibility, per Lin, stems in part from the club’s pessimism regarding their ability to keep Cease in San Diego long-term. While Lin notes the club still “harbors some hope” that they may be able to extend King before he reaches free agency next winter, they believe they have no such chance of being able to afford Cease following the 2025 campaign, when MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to make $13.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.

If Cease were to be traded for young talent, that $13.7MM could be re-invested into the roster and potentially used to a player in free agency, whether that be a mid-level starter like Jose Quintana or Kyle Gibson or help in the outfield, perhaps even in the form of a reunion with Jurickson Profar. Much as that salary relief could be a huge boon to the Padres, it’s not an especially cumbersome figure overall. For that reason, Lin suggests that Cease could find a much wider range of suitors on the trade market this winter than Juan Soto did when San Diego shopped him last year, even as Cease isn’t nearly as impactful as the league’s newly-minted $765MM man.

At least one suitor for Cease’s services has already been named, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported earlier today that the Red Sox are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease. Boston has long been known to be targeting help at the top of their rotation, and after the club fell short in the pursuit of southpaw Max Fried today their interest in working out a deal to acquire Cease has surely only grown. The Red Sox currently seem focused on courting right-hander Corbin Burnes as they search for top-of-the-rotation help, but the possibility of the club looking to add two front-end starters this winter has been bandied about at times throughout the offseason so even landing a player of that caliber wouldn’t necessarily preclude a deal from taking place.

The Red Sox have a tantalizing cachet of top prospects in their system, though the likes of Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are generally considered to be untouchable in trade discussions. Catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Wilyer Abreu, or perhaps even right-hander Garrett Whitlock would be perfect fits San Diego’s needs, though it’s unclear if the Red Sox would be willing to part ways with any of those players in a deal for a rental piece like Cease. While Abreu in particular has been floated frequently as a potential trade candidate this winter, those rumors have typically tended to frame Abreu as the headliner for a package that would land a controllable piece like White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet rather than for a rental arm like Cease.

Padres Notes: Offseason Needs, Loáisiga, Payroll, Cease

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After a successful 2024 campaign that saw the Padres return to the postseason despite cutting payroll and trading Juan Soto, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is doubtlessly looking to improve his team over the winter. To that end, he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell that he’s looking to address holes in the corner outfield, the starting rotation, and behind the dish. None of that is especially surprising considering some of the players the Padres lost to free agency this winter, namely left fielder Jurickson Profar, starter Martín Pérez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Moreover, starter Joe Musgrove will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, leaving the rotation without much depth.

With that said, the Padres have not yet been linked to many free agents to fill those holes. They’re interested in starter Roki Sasaki (per ESPN), but at this point, so is just about everyone else. When it comes to catchers, they’re starting to run out of options, with Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez off the market and Carson Kelly nearing a deal with the Cubs. As for corner outfielders, the Padres haven’t been strongly connected to anyone yet; Preller told Cassavell he hasn’t closed the door on a reunion with Profar, but that’s pretty much it.

Similarly, the Padres have expressed some interest in bringing back Ha-Seong Kim, although the infield seems to be less of a priority. After all, the team already has an internal option to replace Kim at the keystone: Jake Cronenworth can play more often at second base and Luis Arraez can play more often at first.

Bolstering the bullpen isn’t at the top of Preller’s to-do list either, but ESPN’s Jorge Castillo recently included the Padres on a list of suitors for right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga. While the Padres lost Tanner Scott to free agency, they still have a pair of imposing back-end relievers in Robert Suarez and Jason Adam. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon also enjoyed strong breakout seasons in 2024, while Yuki Matsui was solid in his first taste of MLB action. Even so, there’s no such thing as too much bullpen talent, and Loáisiga is the kind of high-upside arm it can’t hurt to check in on. Due to numerous arm injuries over the past three years (most recently a torn UCL), he’s unlikely to sign for multiple years or much money. However, he was dominant the last time he was healthy in 2021, tossing 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA. He flashed a 98 mph sinker and nasty sweeping curveball in a handful of outings earlier this year, and it’s possible he’ll be back from his internal brace procedure in time for Opening Day.

So, why might the Padres be particularly interested in a buy-low free agent like Loáisiga? Perhaps it’s the same reason they haven’t linked to many other free agents, even at areas of greater need. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that San Diego’s payroll will likely fall somewhere in between last year’s final tally of $169MM and the current RosterResource estimate of $210MM for 2025. In other words, Preller might need to get some cash off the books before can start spending.

One idea to help the Padres reduce payroll that’s recently been picking up steam is trading Dylan Cease. According to Acee, they have indeed discussed the idea with other teams at the Winter Meetings. It’s not clear how serious those discussions are; some of Acee’s sources suggest the Padres are actively shopping the right-hander, while others suggest they’re merely open to offers.

Needless to say, Cease isn’t a player most contending teams would consider trading. According to FanGraphs, he was worth 4.8 WAR in 2024 and 17.2 WAR over the past four seasons. That’s not the kind of production that’s easy to replace at any price, let alone his $13.7MM projected salary. That said, this wouldn’t be the first time Preller has traded a star player while remaining competitive. Perhaps he’s confident the Padres will land Sasaki. Alternatively, he could be planning to trade for Garrett Crochet; the Padres have been linked to the White Sox ace. Those might be the only two options for San Diego to replace a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease at a lower salary.

Indeed, without Sasaki or Crochet, it’s hard to imagine how trading Cease wouldn’t set the Padres back. After all, Preller himself said that adding a starting pitcher was a priority this offseason. Beyond Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish, the Padres rotation is all question marks. Randy Vásquez struggled in his first season with San Diego, while Matt Waldron quickly slowed down after a hot start in 2024. Dealing Cease could help the Padres fill other holes on the roster, but without a frontline starter to take his place, such a move might just be one step forward and two steps back.

No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez

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Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

Merv Rettenmund Passes Away

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Former big leaguer and longtime batting coach Merv Rettenmund passed away on Saturday at age 81.  Rettenmund played 13 seasons with the Orioles, Reds, Padres, and Angels from 1968-1980, then was a hitting coach for five different teams over parts of 19 seasons from 1983 to 2007.

Rettenmund was a two-sport star in his college days at Ball State, and was even a 19th-round pick for the Dallas Cowboys in the 1965 NFL Draft.  Already signed to the Orioles, Rettenmund went on to make his big league debut in 1968 and soon established himself as a regular on an outstanding Baltimore team.  Rettenmund hit .284/.383/.436 in 2021 plate appearances during his six seasons with the O’s, bouncing between all three outfield positions.

This stretch of Rettenmund’s career was highlighted by a World Series title with the Orioles in 1970, and he moved on to win another ring with the 1975 Reds.  Though Rettenmund’s production dropped off during his two years in Cincinnati, a backup role on one of the greatest teams in baseball history was no small feat.  He served mostly as a platoon player and pinch-hitter for the remainder of his career, and finished with a .271/.381/.406 slash line and 66 home runs across 3074 PA and 1023 games in the majors.

After retirement, Rettenmund moved into a lengthy second chapter of his baseball life by becoming a well-respected hitting coach.  Rettenmund spent parts of 11 seasons as the Padres’ hitting coach over two different stints (1991-99, and 2006-07) in San Diego, and his coaching duties also included stops with the Rangers, Athletics, Braves, and Tigers.  Three of Rettenmund’s teams won pennants, including the 1989 A’s team that won the World Series.

We at MLB Trade Rumors send our condolences to Rettenmund’s family, friends, and peers.

Garrett Crochet Rumors: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds

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7:28pm: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

4:23pm: Garrett Crochet’s status as the offseason’s top trade candidate means that there is plenty of buzz surrounding the White Sox southpaw as the Winter Meetings get underway.  A crosstown trade could be a possibility, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs “have had at least preliminary talks” with the Sox about Crochet’s availability.

The Cubs’ list of top prospects is heavy on position players, which could fit with White Sox GM Chris Getz’s stated aim of obtaining premium position-player talent in exchange for Crochet’s services.  It is easy to imagine Getz asking for at least one of Matt Shaw or Owen Caissie as a headliner in a trade package, or perhaps even Pete Crow-Armstrong if the Sox wanted a player with some actual big league experience.  Given the Cubs’ depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might feel comfortable in parting with a younger blue-chipper in order to land a controllable pitcher.

Crochet is projected to earn only $2.9MM in arbitration this season, and he is under one further year of team control in 2026.  Even if Crochet’s production takes a dip from his 2024 numbers, he’d still be a bargain in comparison to the cost of the average starting pitcher.  This might be the type of special circumstance that would make the Cubs want to keep adding to their rotation, even though the Wrigleyville starting five already seems set with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and new signing Matthew Boyd.

The White Sox are known to have a very high asking price on Crochet, and apparently had interest in at least one of Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries in trade talks with the Padres, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  San Diego has been linked to Crochet on the rumor mill since prior to the trade deadline, yet the Friars have seemingly drawn a line when it comes to moving either of the top two prospects in their farm system.

The Padres and Cubs are just two of the many clubs known to have had some level of interest in Crochet in the last six months, and given his low price, it’s probably safe to say just about every team in baseball has probably at least checked in with Getz about what it would take to land the left-hander.  The Yankees refused to deal Spencer Jones to the White Sox for Crochet prior to the deadline, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X link) writes that New York is still “believed to be in” on the Crochet sweepstakes.

Boston may be a different story, as Cotillo hears that the Red Sox are “just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all.”  This tracks with reporting from Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam a couple of weeks ago, as McAdam wrote that negotiations between the two Sox teams had seemingly quieted.  On paper, the Red Sox would seemingly be an ideal fit for Crochet given Boston’s need for frontline pitching and their collection of elite position-player prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel), but obviously a match depends on what exactly Chicago would want back in return.  For instance, there have been reports that Anthony and Campbell are the true untouchables within the “big four” Red Sox prospects, so talks might have cooled with the White Sox are insisting on one of those two.

There appear to be mixed signals on whether or not the Reds could be involved.  Cotillo writes that “Cincinnati [is] seen as a real threat to land Crochet,” but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer throws cold water on the possibility, saying that “the talks went nowhere” between the Reds and White Sox, “and there’s no reason to think they’ll re-engage at this point.”  Wittenmyer notes that the two sides discussed Crochet before Cincinnati acquired Brady Singer from the Royals, so that deal could mark the end of any higher-level pitching moves the Reds could make.

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