Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?
With the 2026 season set to begin today, the offseason is now complete for MLB’s 30 teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, and the Tigers did the same in our poll on the AL Central, and the Mariners were predicted to win the AL West. Yesterday, MLBTR readers overwhelmingly voted (66%) to predict the Dodgers would win the NL West. Today, we’ll be moving on to the NL Central. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Milwaukee Brewers (97-65)
The Brewers were the best team in baseball by regular season record last year. While their close NLDS matchup against their division rivals from Chicago and a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLCS did little to answer questions about the club’s viability in October, they’ve won three straight division titles and haven’t finished a 162-game season with fewer than 86 wins since 2016. At some point, it becomes hard not to reward that consistency, and even after a winter where the club traded away Freddy Peralta, Isaac Collins, and Caleb Durbin without making any obviously impactful additions to the roster, it’s easy to imagine Milwaukee’s run of success continuing in 2026. Jackson Chourio is certainly capable of a breakout, and Jacob Misiorowski could make Brewers fans forget Peralta in a hurry if the flamethrowing righty takes a step forward.
Chicago Cubs (92-70)
The Cubs failed to win the division last season, lost to their division rivals in the ALDS, and watched superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker walk in free agency over the offseason. Despite all of that, however, Chicago is viewed by some around the game as the heavy favorite in the NL Central. That’s thanks to a busy offseason where they brought Alex Bregman into the organization and landed right-hander Edward Cabrera in trade. Those external additions, larger contributions from up-and-coming youngsters Moises Ballesteros and Cade Horton, and the healthy return of Justin Steele to the top of the club’s rotation should all help the Cubs make up for the loss of Tucker. The true x-factor for Chicago’s hopes in the division this year, however, will surely be the recently-extended Pete Crow-Armstrong. If he looks anything like he did in the first half of 2025, he should be in the MVP conversation and help lead the Cubs to new heights. If he’s more like his second half, however, the Cubs could find themselves on the outside looking in for what should be a competitive NL Central race this year.
Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
The Reds shocked many fans and analysts when they managed to squeak into the postseason last year, and this offseason saw them bring old friend Eugenio Suarez back into the fold to add some thump to a lineup that was lackluster for most of 2026. It was a strong addition to be sure, but the loss of both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo for the start of the 2026 season will put a lot of pressure on young arms like Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns, and Brandon Williamson to carry the team in the early parts of the season. If the team’s youngsters can do that until Greene returns to his spot at the top of the rotation, perhaps Suarez and Elly De La Cruz can create enough offense to get the Reds to the postseason in more convincing fashion this year.
St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
The Cardinals finally executed their long-teased rebuild this offseason, dealing away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Arenado in the span of three months. The resulting team has plenty of reasons for hope in the future, including star prospect JJ Wetherholt, but for the time being, it’s hard to see this club as anything other than the obvious weak link in the NL Central. A banner rookie season from Wetherholt would need to be combined with big steps forward for players like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Matthew Liberatore alongside a rebound for Dustin May if there’s going to be any hope of playoff baseball in St. Louis this year. That’s a tall order to say the least, but players like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera at least look like solid building blocks for the future.
Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91)
The Pirates may have finished fifth in the NL Central last year, but it would be a shock to see them do so again in 2026. They’re a popular darkhorse pick to even take the division this year, and it’s not hard to see why. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes might be the best pitcher on the planet, and he’s backed up by a strong rotation that also includes Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller headed into 2026. Those pitchers will be supported by a completely rebuilt offense this year, as Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn, and Jake Mangum are all in place to help boost a lineup that relied on Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds as its middle of the order bats last year. A bullpen that lost David Bednar at last year’s trade deadline but added Gregory Soto over the winter comes with some questions, and the team’s defense seems likely to leave something to be desired, but this is easily the most competitive the Pirates have been in a decade.
How do MLBTR readers think the NL Central will shake out this year? Will Milwaukee’s dominance continue despite dealing away Peralta and others? Will the Cubs take that extra step even after losing Kyle Tucker? Have the Pirates or Reds done enough to bridge the gap and push themselves into the conversation? Or will the Cardinals’ expected rebuilding phase end before it even begins? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the NL Central in 2026?
Joe La Sorsa To Stay With Pirates
March 25th: La Sorsa went unclaimed and will stay with the Pirates as non-roster depth, per Alexander.
March 22nd: La Sorsa has been told he won’t be breaking camp with the Pirates, so he’ll be triggering his clause tomorrow, Ari Alexander reports.
March 17th: Left-hander Joe La Sorsa has an upward mobility clause at the end of spring training in his minor league deal with the Pirates, reports Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston. If he triggers that clause, he’ll be offered up to the other 29 clubs. If any of them are willing to give him a roster spot, then the Pirates have to either give him a roster spot themselves or trade him to another club that will. If no club offers him a roster spot, then he can be sent to the minors as non-roster depth.
La Sorsa, 28 in April, agreed to a minor league deal with the Bucs right as free agency was beginning in early November. He hasn’t spent much time in camp because he joined the Italian team for the World Baseball Classic. The Azzurri went on a Cinderella run that just ended last night when they were eliminated by Venezuela in the semifinals. The lefty made four appearance for Italy, logging 2 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs via two hits and one hit-by-pitch while striking out four.
His major league track record consists of 57 innings thrown for the Rays, Nationals and Reds over the past three years. In that time, he has a 5.21 ERA, 17.5% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 39.2% ground ball rate. In 2025, he only made five appearances in the majors. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting a 2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate and 42.1% ground ball rate at that level were close to average but he walked 13% of batters faced.
With the upward mobility clause, La Sorsa will get a major league roster spot as long as one of the 30 clubs is willing to give him one, whether that’s the Pirates or not. The Bucs should have Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery as their two primary lefties in the bullpen. Evan Sisk is also on the roster but he has already been optioned, so he should start the season in Triple-A. If La Sorsa does get a roster spot somewhere, he still has a minor league option remaining.
Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images
MLBTR Podcast: The PCA and Sanchez Extensions, And Prospect Promotions And Reassignments
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The extension between the Cubs and Pete Crow-Armstrong (recorded prior to the numbers being reported) (2:20)
- The extension between the Phillies and Cristopher Sánchez (7:00)
- The Braves losing Spencer Strider to the injured list (14:00)
- Is there a trend of starting pitcher prospects being used in major league bullpens? (18:15)
- The Nationals optioning Dylan Crews and Harry Ford, with Josiah Gray landing on the 60-day IL (23:35)
- Carson Benge making the Mets‘ Opening Day roster (30:30)
- JJ Wetherholt making the Cardinals‘ Opening Day roster (35:40)
- The Pirates not breaking camp with Konnor Griffin (39:15)
- The Guardians not breaking camp with Travis Bazzana (44:40)
- The Blue Jays starting the season with José Berríos and Trey Yesavage on the injured list (49:20)
- The Marlins optioning Braxton Garrett (55:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Banged-Up Reds And Braves, Kevin McGonigle, And Spring Breakouts – listen here
- Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell – listen here
- Max Scherzer, The Red Sox’ Lineup, Spring Extension Candidates, And More! – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images
Pirates Finalize Pitching Staff
The Pirates finalized their Opening Day pitching decisions, with Jason Mackey of MLB.com covering the notable details. Carmen Mlodzinski will get a rotation spot while José Urquidy and Hunter Barco will start the season in the bullpen and Mike Clevinger will head to Triple-A. Alex Stumpf reports that Clevinger had an upward mobility clause in his minor league deal but it appears that didn’t lead to a roster spot with any of the 30 clubs in the league.
The Bucs went into the winter with loads of pitching and used that to bolster their position player group. They included Mike Burrows in the three-team trade that netted them Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum, as well as reliever Mason Montgomery. They flipped Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox in a five-player trade, with the headliner for the Bucs being outfielder Jhostynxon García. They still have a strong front four consisting of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft. By the end of camp, Mlodzinski, Urquidy, Barco and Clevinger appeared to be battling for the final spot.
Mlodzinski enters the season with a 3.25 earned run average in 185 2/3 innings as a swingman. He has struck out 21.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 8.2% clip, both fairly average marks. His 47.1% ground ball rate is a few ticks north of par.
There seems to be some belief he could find a new gear. Mlodzinski tells Mackey that he’s feeling much better now compared to a year ago thanks to the development of his splitter and curveball. He threw both of those pitches at the big league level for the first time last year. It’s hoped that the more diverse arsenal can help him find more success as he turns a lineup over. Mlodzinski has allowed a line of .214/.281/.294 when facing a lineup for the first time as a starter but a massive .381/.422/.607 line the second time through.
For what it’s worth, he had a great camp. Spring performances always need to be taken with a grain of salt but he posted a 2.92 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate, 3.6% walk rate and 56.8% ground ball rate. The Bucs will give him a chance to carry that forward into the regular season.
Jared Jones will be returning from his surgery at some point in the coming months and will need a rotation spot but other injuries will likely pop up between now and then. Mlodzinski does still have an option and could be sent to the minors but that’s also true of Ashcraft, Chandler and Jones. Time will tell how it all shakes out.
For now, there are domino effects for the other guys who were in the mix. Urquidy has had a decent career but missed most of 2024 and 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Bucs gave him a big league deal but he didn’t have a good camp, allowing 11 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. He’ll seemingly start the season as a long reliever, presumably for mop-up duty.
As for Barco, it’s a bit of a surprise to see him on the Opening Day roster. He has options and is still expected to be a valuable starter in the long run, so there was an argument for having him stretched out in Triple-A.
Mackey suggests his path forward could mirror that of Ashcraft, who tossed 69 2/3 innings in the majors last year and 48 1/3 in the minors. The major league work was split between eight starts and 18 bullpen appearances, most of which were for more than an inning. Ashcraft went into 2025 having never thrown more than 73 innings in a season. He got to 118 last year, between his minor league starts and that big league hybrid role. That should put him in place to jump to something resembling a full starter’s workload in 2026.
Barco got to 102 1/3 innings last year between the majors and minors, a personal high for him. Ideally, he will push that up this year in order to keep building towards a full starter’s workload. For now, that will be in the big league bullpen. He has options and could be sent down for regular Triple-A work at some point or perhaps injuries will open a rotation role in the majors.
As for Clevinger, it’s been a few years since he was an effective starter in the big leagues, which is why he had to settle for a minor league deal this offseason. His velocity was up this spring, an encouraging sign, but the results weren’t enough to grab a roster spot. He struck out 25% of batters faced in spring games but also gave out walks at a 16.7% clip and posted a 5.02 ERA.
He’ll presumably be in the Triple-A rotation, staying ready for a potential call-up at some point. The fact that he’s not on the 40-man roster could work against him. Thomas Harrington and Wilber Dotel have 40-man spots and will also be making Triple-A starts while on optional assignment.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Pirates Assign Konnor Griffin To Minor League Camp
The Pirates announced that star prospect Konnor Griffin has been reassigned to the team’s minor league spring camp. Barring something surprising like a last-minute contract extension, the transaction seems to confirm that Griffin won’t be part of Pittsburgh’s Opening Day roster.
This was probably always the likeliest scenario, as Griffin is still just over a month away from his 20th birthday and has yet to even make his Triple-A debut. Though Griffin crushed Double-A pitching to the tune of a .337/.418/.542 slash line in 2025, those big numbers came in the relatively small sample size of 98 plate appearances over 21 games. In Spring Training action, Griffin showed some big power but not much else, hitting .184/.279/.526 over 43 PA and striking out 11 times.
If Griffin had dominated the Grapefruit League, the Pirates might’ve felt more compelled to immediately see what the shortstop could do at the Major League level. An Opening Day assignment would’ve also put the Pirates in line for a potential future bonus draft pick under the Prospect Promotion Incentive plan, though the temptation of an extra pick isn’t as important to the Bucs as Griffin’s continued development. For context, the Pirates also didn’t bring Paul Skenes up for his MLB debut until May of the 2024 season, even though Skenes’ immediate dominance indicated that he might well have been ready for the Show on Opening Day.
A pre-career extension might’ve also done the trick in getting Griffin to the Opening Day lineup, and last month, both Griffin and the Pirates had some interest in such a deal. Such an extension surely would’ve topped Jackson Chourio‘s eight-year, $82MM pact with the Brewers as the largest deal ever given to a player before his MLB debut, and the New York Post’s’ Jon Heyman writes “and some believe” the Pirates (never known for their big spending) are comfortable going to such record lengths in a nine-figure contract.
Griffin looks like the kind of special talent that merits this kind of investment. The ninth overall pick of the 2024 draft hit a combined .333/.415/.527 over 563 PA split between the A-ball, high-A, and Double-A levels in 2025, with 21 home runs and 65 steals (in 78 attempts). All of the major scouting outlets have Griffin atop their preseason top-100 prospect rankings, with scouting reports raving about his five-tool skills. Primarily a shortstop, Griffin has dabbled a bit in center field since his athleticism translates so well to either position, and whatever the spot, he looks like a future fixture in Pittsburgh’s lineup.
As dire as the last seven seasons have been for Pirates fans, Griffin’s impending arrival, Skenes’ presence, a bunch of other quality arms in the pipeline, and the fact that the Bucs spent some money on bats this winter are all signs that things could be turning around in the Steel City. Exciting as it would’ve been to have seen Griffin’s debut this week, the Pirates are okay in playing the slightly longer game, even if Griffin might still be in the Show before the All-Star break.
Which Top Prospects Could Be On 2026 Opening Day Rosters?
In the not-too-distant past, it was relatively rare for organizations to break camp with their very best prospects on the roster. It still happened at times, but MLB's service time structure was set up such that keeping a top prospect in the minors for even two weeks to begin the season effectively ensured that he'd be controllable for seven years rather than the standard six. There were obvious exceptions to this thinking -- Atlanta fans surely remember Jason Heyward breaking camp as a 20-year-old and belting a three-run homer on Opening Day -- but there were far more cases of keeping a player in the minors to buy the extra year. Kris Bryant, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and others were all called to the majors just when they'd spent enough time in the minors to give their clubs an extra year of control. There was nothing inherently nefarious about the gambit; teams were operating within the collectively bargained rules and making business decisions.
The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement sought to implement some real incentives for teams to bring their best players north to begin the season, however, and by and large they've been effective. With the Prospect Promotion Incentives (PPI), any prospect who appears on two recognized top-100 lists and is called up early enough to earn a full service year can net his team a bonus draft pick, either in that season's Rookie of the Year voting or in MVP/Cy Young voting over the next three seasons.
There's also a disincentive to holding a player down. For those same qualified top prospects, a top-two finish in either league's Rookie of the Year voting will net a full year of major league service time, regardless of when they were called up. Said prospects still have around 90% of a season in such instances, which is more than enough time to turn in a ROY-worthy performance.
Teams now know that holding a player down for 15 days or so might lead to him getting a full year of service anyhow and comes with the disadvantage of rendering that player ineligible for future PPI picks. As such, it's become increasingly common for touted prospects to break camp on their teams' rosters.
With that in mind, and with fewer than two weeks to go until Opening Day, it seems worth running through a slate of top prospects who could factor into their teams' Opening Day plans.
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MLBTR Podcast: Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Phillies and Jesús Luzardo signing an extension (1:55)
- Johan Rojas reportedly testing positive for a PED and how that impacts the Phillies (16:55)
- The Braves losing Jurickson Profar to yet another PED suspension and Joey Wentz to a season-ending injury (22:15)
- The Nationals signing Zack Littell (36:25)
- The Pirates trading Kyle Nicolas to the Reds for Tyler Callihan (43:40)
- The Rangers signing Andrew McCutchen to a minor league deal (48:45)
- The Astros dealing with a Jeremy Peña injury and how that impacts the ongoing Isaac Paredes trade rumors (53:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- Max Scherzer, The Red Sox’ Lineup, Spring Extension Candidates, And More! – listen here
- Twins And Orioles’ Injuries, The Guardians And Angels’ Quiet Offseasons, And Chris Sale’s Extension – listen here
- The Tigers’ Rotation, A Brewers-Red Sox Trade, And Late Free-Agent Signings – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images
Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates went into the winter with a lot of pitching and almost no hitting. They spent the offseason smoothing out that imbalance and the team looks better going into 2026. Is it enough to get them back to the playoffs for first time in over a decade?
Major League Signings
- 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn: Two years, $29MM
- DH Marcell Ozuna: One year, $12MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $16MM mutual option for 2027)
- LHP Gregory Soto: One year, $7.75MM
- RHP José Urquidy: One year, $1.5MM
2026 spending: $35.25MM
Total spending: $50.25MM
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RHP Dugan Darnell from Rockies (later lost to Tigers via waivers)
- Acquired OF Jhostynxon García and RHP Jesus Travieso from Red Sox for RHP Johan Oviedo, LHP Tyler Samaniego and C Adonys Guzman
- Claimed OF Marco Luciano from Giants (later lost to Orioles via waivers)
- Acquired RHP Jaiker Garcia from Rangers for Rule 5 pick Carter Baumler
- Acquired 2B Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum and LHP Mason Montgomery from Rays in three-team trade, with RHP Mike Burrows going from Pirates to Astros
- Acquired IF Francisco Loreto from Phillies for RHP Chase Shugart
- Acquired IF/OF Tyler Callihan from Reds for RHP Kyle Nicolas
Option Decisions
- None
Notable Minor League Signings
- Joe La Sorsa, Noah Murdock, Beau Burrows, Ronny Simón, Davis Wendzel, Dominic Fletcher, Chris Devenski, Noah Davis, Mike Clevinger, Carson Fulmer
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Jack Little (waivers), Ji Hwan Bae (waivers), José Castillo (waivers), Liover Peguero, Cam Devanney (released and signed in Japan), Colin Holderman (non-tendered), Dauri Moreta (non-tendered, still unsigned), Alexander Canario (non-tendered and signed in Japan), Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Chase Shugart, Jack Suwinski (waivers), Kyle Nicolas
The Bucs have been stuck in a rebuilding pattern for a while. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2015 and haven’t topped 82 wins in any season since then. They flirted with contention in recent seasons, though in the era of the expanded playoffs, that just means they floated near .500 for parts of the summer.
They have graduated a lot of exciting pitching prospects to the majors in recent years but have struggled to hit. The 2025 team scored 583 runs, lowest in the majors. The team had a combined .231/.305/.350 batting line, which translated to an 82 wRC+, indicating the squad was collectively 18% worse than league average. The only guy on the team with a wRC+ greater than 101 was Spencer Horwitz, who started the season on the injured list due to wrist surgery and did most of his damage in the second half.
Despite the clear deficiencies on the roster, there was a case for making a strong push this offseason. Paul Skenes has just four years of club control remaining and may not spend all of that in Pittsburgh. His salary will increase via arbitration in 2027 and he may not sign an extension, so he could be traded before reaching free agency, currently slated for the 2029-30 offseason. Konnor Griffin became the top prospect in baseball in 2025 and put himself in position to make a major league debut in 2026. If you’re not going to invest around these stars, then when?
The club has not been active in free agency historically. They have never given a free agent $40MM in franchise history. Since Ben Cherington took over as general manager in 2019, he had never signed a free agent to a multi-year deal or signed a one-year deal worth as much as $11MM. But in the early offseason, Cherington suggested they could add $30-40MM to the payroll. That wouldn’t be too exciting for a lot of clubs but would be an increase for the Bucs. There was also the trade market, as they appeared to have enough starting pitching that flipping some for offense seemed possible.
Given the weakness of the lineup, the Bucs had the freedom to target almost any bat, regardless of position. Quickly, it became clear that Cherington’s words weren’t completely hollow, as he went after some of the top available guys. It was reported in mid-November that the club had made a strong offer to Josh Naylor before he had re-signed with the Mariners and they were also in the mix for Kyle Schwarber. Signing either would have required shattering their $39MM franchise record for a free agent deal. They were also connected to guys like Kazuma Okamoto and Jorge Polanco in the early offseason.
Their first notable move wasn’t for a surefire lineup boost, but it did feature the pitching-for-hitting framework that was expected. There were five players in the deal but the headline was that the Bucs sent righty Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox for outfield prospect Jhostynxon García. Oviedo had shown some promise in 2023 when he posted a 4.31 earned run average over 32 starts. He missed 2024 due to surgery, returned in 2025 and put up a 3.57 ERA with more strikeouts but also more walks.
Oviedo has two years of club control remaining and may have some upside but the Pirates had enough starting pitching talent to part ways with him. By doing so, they added an intriguing but unproven outfielder to their roster. García has been on some top 100 prospect lists but has just five big league games under his belt. He should have a chance to earn some playing time but his path would eventually be crowded by the rest of Pittsburgh’s offseason moves.
The Schwarber dream died on December 9th, when he returned to the Phils on a five-year, $150MM deal. The Bucs reportedly offered him a four-year deal in the $120MM range. That obviously wasn’t enough but it signaled that there was indeed some change in the pocket.
On the same date that the Schwarber news dropped, the Bucs did get a deal done, but with a reliever. They agreed to a one-year deal with Gregory Soto worth $7.75MM. Soto had a 4.40 ERA over the past three years but with perhaps more interesting numbers under the hood. His 9.4% walk rate was around average for a reliever, while his 25.9% strikeout rate and 48.4% ground ball rate were a few ticks better than par. A .325 batting average on balls in play and 67.7% strand rate seemed to hurt him, which is why his 3.55 FIP and 3.55 SIERA were more optimistic. If his ERA trends closer to those other metrics, it could be a nice bit of business for the Pirates.
A little over a week later, the Pirates made their first surefire upgrade to the lineup. Like the Oviedo-García swap, this one would see the Bucs trading from their rotation depth. In a three-team trade, they sent Mike Burrows to the Astros in order to receive infielder Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and left-hander Mason Montgomery from the Rays. Burrows was a steep price to pay, as he has six years of club control remaining. But the Pirates had several such arms in their rotation mix and didn’t have room for all of them.
The biggest upgrade for 2026 is Lowe, though he is just a rental, since there is one year left on his contract. But he’s one of the top power bats at the second base position. He has 81 home runs over the past five years. Only four primary second baseman have more. The four guys ahead of him all played a larger sample of games in that span, which speaks to some injury trouble Lowe has had, which is the main knock against him. Though he doesn’t count as a free agent, the Bucs are taking on his contract and will pay him $11.5MM this year.
Mangum and Montgomery are more complementary pieces of the trade but still potentially impactful. Mangum’s first year in the big leagues saw him steal 27 bases and get strong grades for his glovework. His bat was a bit below par but he was still useful on the whole. He has five years of club control and a full slate of options. Even if he’s just a fourth outfielder type, he has value. If his bat finds a new gear, then that’s even better. Montgomery has huge strikeout stuff but poor control. He’s a project but one with upside if things break right. He also comes with five years of club control and has options.
The Bucs were clearly not content to stop after Lowe. In the coming days, they would be connected to guys like Eugenio Suárez and Yoán Moncada. Just before the holiday break, they pulled the trigger on a free agent addition, a two-year deal with Ryan O’Hearn worth $29MM. While a notch below the Schwarber/Naylor pursuits, it was still somewhat notable as the biggest free agent deal of Cherington’s tenure.
O’Hearn isn’t a superstar but has been solidly above average at the plate. Over the past three years, he has 46 home runs, a .277/.343/.445 line and 121 wRC+. He has some ability to play the outfield but is more of a first baseman. It initially seemed like he and Horwitz would share first base and the designated hitter spot, but this would change in the coming months.
The Pirates were still hunting for more offense, getting connected to various bats throughout January. They also showed some interest in Framber Valdez as he lingered unsigned, though that seemed like an odd fit and he eventually landed with the Tigers.
They did apparently have room for one arm in the rotation after their recent trades, as they landed José Urquidy on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM. The Bucs usually sign a cheap left-hander late in the offseason. Since PNC Park is so tough on righty power, those lefties can usually outperform their contracts. Urquidy is right-handed but is basically filling that role since he has reverse splits in his career.
There was one more clear lineup boost to come, as the Pirates signed Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $12MM deal in February. It’s a bit risky since Ozuna is 35 years old and coming off a down year, by his standards. His season was weighed down by a summer slump which coincided with him battling a hip injury. Perhaps he can bounce back with a full season of health but that’s no guarantee at his age.
In addition to the risk, the addition also gummed up the lineup a little bit. Ozuna is just a designated hitter at this point in his career. He didn’t play the field at all in 2024 or 2025 and was in the outfield for just 14 innings in 2023. If he’s in the DH spot most days, Lowe is at second and Horwitz is at first, that means O’Hearn will have to be in the outfield almost every day. He’s never started more than 23 games on the grass in any season of his career, so that will be new for him, but it seems the Bucs are willing to make that compromise as they try to add as much thump to the lineup as possible.
In addition to displacing O’Hearn, there are other ripple effects. With Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz in the other two outfield spots, guys like García and Mangum will be pushed to fourth outfielder roles or maybe even the minors. It also effectively closed off any chance of another reunion with Andrew McCutchen. He seemed frustrated by the situation but eventually moved on, signing a minor league deal with the Rangers.
The Bucs added one more guy into the depth picture with a spring trade. They sent reliever Kyle Nicolas to the Reds in exchange for infielder/outfielder Tyler Callihan. Nicolas is almost like a righty version of Montgomery, with big stuff but poor control. If he puts it together in Cincinnati, this one could sting, but it’s also possible that doesn’t happen. Callihan has just four big league games under his belt but strong minor league numbers. He played first base, second base and left field last year, so he provides depth in a few spots.
It was a busy offseason and it feels like there’s more optimism surrounding the Pirates than there has been for quite some time. When combining free agents and the money they took on in the Lowe deal, they added roughly $50MM to the 2026 payroll.
Despite trading away several arms, they project to have a rotation including Skenes, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Urquidy. Jared Jones will return from his surgery rehab at some point, perhaps as early as late May. Prospects Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco will be lurking in Triple-A.
The lineup will need incumbent guys like Reynolds and Cruz to bounce back but the Bucs have added Lowe, O’Hearn and Ozuna as three everyday upgrades. Guys like Garcia, Mangum and Callihan will be pushing for jobs over time. The left side of the infield feels like a weak spot but Griffin should be up to take over shortstop at some point, maybe as soon as Opening Day. That would leave guys like Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales and others fighting over third base.
Is this enough to get them over the hump? The National League Central is in fairly healthy shape. The Cardinals are rebuilding but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds all made the playoffs last year. Did the Pirates add enough to leapfrog someone?
How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images
Pirates, Reds Swap Tyler Callihan For Kyle Nicolas
The Pirates announced they’ve traded relief pitcher Kyle Nicolas to the Reds for left fielder/second baseman Tyler Callihan. Both players were on the 40-man roster, so there’s no corresponding move.
It’s a swap of talented but largely unproven players between the NL Central rivals. Nicolas, 27, has the more significant MLB experience of the two. A second-round pick by the Marlins in 2020, he was traded to Pittsburgh as one of two prospects the following year for Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings. Nicolas was a starting pitcher at the time but always projected to a bullpen future because of spotty command.
Nicolas debuted as a September call-up in 2023. The Ball State product has opened each of the following two seasons on optional assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis. Nicolas has posted below-average numbers at the MLB level but remains an intriguing depth piece with big stuff.
In 98 MLB innings, Nicolas carries a 4.68 earned run average. He has struck out a league average 22% of opponents while issuing walks at a lofty 12.2% rate. He split his time evenly between the majors and Triple-A last year. While he allowed nearly five earned runs per nine at the MLB level, he posted a 3.79 ERA with an excellent 31% strikeout rate against minor league opposition. Nicolas walked more than 12% of Triple-A opponents and has posted double digit walk rates at almost every stop of his professional career.
The command will probably keep Nicolas in middle relief. He’d have the raw stuff to pitch at the back of a bullpen if he can find a way to throw more strikes. Nicolas sits in the 97-98 mph range with his heater and has a pair of power breaking balls: a 90-91 mph slider and mid-80s curveball.
He also uses his 6’3″ frame to get down the mound and generate a lot of extension, though the long levers have also seemingly held him back from finding consistency in his delivery. Nicolas commanded the ball better down the stretch last season. He walked only 8.4% of opponents while posting a 3.46 ERA in 26 innings after the All-Star Break. It’s a small sample but perhaps something to build off as he tries to earn a permanent bullpen spot.
Nicolas has a little over one year of service time. He’s at least two years away from arbitration and five years from reaching free agency. He has one minor league option remaining, so the Reds can send him to Triple-A Louisville without exposing him to waivers. Nicolas tossed two scoreless innings this spring before joining Team Italy for the World Baseball Classic. (He’s from Ohio but has a family link to Italy that made him eligible to participate.)
Cincinnati doesn’t have a ton of roster flexibility in the bullpen, where six of their relievers cannot be optioned. Graham Ashcraft has options but is a lock to begin the season in the late innings. Unless the Reds move on from Sam Moll, they’d only have one bullpen spot available between Nicolas, Luis Mey, Connor Phillips and Zach Maxwell. The latter four pitchers all have big arms but come with strike-throwing questions.
The Pirates subtract from their bullpen depth to take a flier on an intriguing hitter who hasn’t found a position. The 25-year-old Callihan was an overslot third-round signee out of high school in 2019. Scouts have praised the lefty hitter’s offensive aptitude while panning his defense. The Jacksonville native has a career .262/.332/.417 batting line over six minor league seasons.
Callihan’s performance in the low minors was a little inconsistent. He has posted better numbers as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. Callihan hit .271/.345/.413 in Double-A two seasons ago and was out to a .303/.410/.528 start over 24 Triple-A contests last year. The Reds called him up at the end of April.
Unfortunately, Callihan didn’t get a chance to establish himself as a rookie. He suffered a gruesome injury just six days into his big league career.
Callihan was playing left field against the Braves on May 5. Matt Olson hit a line drive that sliced away from him down the left field line. Callihan slid to try to catch the ball and was unable to brace himself before hitting the wall with his outstretched glove hand. The collision broke his arm and forced him to undergo season-ending surgery. (Adding insult to injury, Olson trotted around for an inside-the-park home run because Callihan had touched the ball in fair territory.)
That ended his debut campaign after six at-bats, in which he collected his first career hit and run batted in. Callihan entered Spring Training without any restrictions and has gotten into seven exhibition contests, going 2-9 with a home run.
Baseball America ranked Callihan the #20 prospect in the Cincinnati system over the offseason, while Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted him 29th in the organization. Callihan has improved his plate discipline and has above-average raw power, but his strikeout rate has climbed in the upper minors.
He’s a below-average defender at second base who probably fits better in left field or at first base. There are some similarities to last winter’s Spencer Horwitz pickup in that regard, though Horwitz had a much longer track record of hitting in Triple-A than Callihan does.
Callihan has less than one year of service and has two minor league options remaining. He’ll battle for a bench job in camp but seems likelier to begin the season in Indy. He can factor in as a bat-first utility type throughout the season if he’s hitting well in the minors.
Respective images via Jordan Godfree and Sam Greene, Imagn Images.
Poll: Will Konnor Griffin Break Camp With The Pirates?
As Spring Training gets underway, many fans are watching top prospects. For the Pirates’ Konnor Griffin, however, it’s not just fans in Pittsburgh watching to see if he’ll be in the starting lineup on Opening Day; it’s the entire baseball world.
Griffin won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until the end of April. The ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft opened eyes all around the sport with his performance in his first professional season last year, slashing .333/.415/.527 in 122 games across three levels, topping out in Double-A. That was enough to make him the consensus top prospect in the sport. The Athletic’s Keith Law called Griffin “the most exciting prospect in the minors since Mike Trout” last month, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen described Griffin as “a franchise-altering entity whose talent rivals that of Bobby Witt Jr.”
It’s hard to get much more impressive than comparisons to Trout and Witt. Between the hype prospect evaluators of all stripes are heaping onto Griffin and his unbelievable start to his pro career, it’s understandable that he would be in the conversation to start the season with the Pirates on Opening Day, even though he’ll still be a teenager.
For now, the Pirates are saying all the right things. Every indication has been that the team will give Griffin the opportunity to earn his way onto the roster. The players currently standing in his way, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, aren’t the sort of slam-dunk regulars that would normally give a club pause when it comes to pushing one of them into a bench role. That open avenue toward a roster spot is great news for Griffin, and so far he’s made the most of the opportunity he’s been handed during camp with two homers in his first ten plate appearances this spring.
There are other factors to consider as well. The most obvious is that Griffin is extremely inexperienced as a professional. He’s played only 122 professional games. Elite prospects have been getting called up more quickly since Trout made his debut 15 years ago, but even by more recent standards Griffin would be among the fastest to reach the show. Witt had 161 games in the minors before his big league debut, and Juan Soto‘s short stint in the minor leagues lasted 122 games, the exact amount Griffin logged last year.
The Pirates are entering a year where they’re clearing trying to win, more than in other recent seasons. They added Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, and Marcell Ozuna to help bolster a stagnant offense and added Gregory Soto to the bullpen as well. That quartet cost around $60MM in total, which is a notable chunk of change by the Pirates’ typical standards.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes is under club control for just four more seasons before he’ll reach free agency and could see his arbitration price explode by 2027 or 2028. The Pirates are acutely aware of that, and getting the most out of Griffin they possibly can while Skenes is still in town should be the team’s top priority.
Service time is another factor the Pirates will need to consider, and that cuts both ways when it comes to the Griffin decision. Holding Griffin down for even just three weeks to start the year could unlock a seventh year of team control over Griffin by ensuring he doesn’t earn a full year of MLB service in 2026. The counter to that, of course, is Skenes himself. The Pirates didn’t promote Skenes until May 2024, but he was still dominant enough once he arrived to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and earn himself a full year of service anyway. Had they simply brought Skenes up on Opening Day, the Pirates would’ve been able to secure an extra draft pick thanks to his Rookie of the Year win.
Another wrinkle in the service time conversation is Griffin’s apparent willingness to consider an extension with Pittsburgh. If the sides were to reach a deal either this spring or in the early days of the 2026 campaign, that would negate the service time concerns. While explicitly holding a player down due to service time considerations or promoting them only if they agree to an extension is frowned upon, it has happened. The prospect promotion incentives added in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement have somewhat lessened the frequency with which such situations occur, but they’ve also prompted some teams to wait until late August with prospects who otherwise look ready, so as to preserve their rookie status (and potential PPI gains) the following season. The Pirates didn’t call Bubba Chandler up until Aug. 22 last year. If they do agree to an extension, the Bucs would be incentivized to not finalize it until after Griffin’s debut. A player who signs a pre-debut extension is not eligible to earn a PPI pick for his team.
How do MLBTR readers think Griffin’s candidacy for a spot on the Opening Day roster will play out? Will he make the team, or start the year in the minor leagues? Or, perhaps, could his status on the MLB roster be determined by how extension talks between the sides go this spring? Have your say in the poll below: