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Michael Kopech Reportedly Dealing With Forearm Inflammation

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The Dodgers are seemingly on the verge of adding two high-leverage bullpen pieces. After agreeing to terms on a four-year deal with Tanner Scott over the weekend, Los Angeles reportedly has a tentative agreement in place to sign All-Star righty Kirby Yates.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who was first to report that the Dodgers and Yates were closing in on a deal, linked the expected addition to the health status of Michael Kopech. There hadn’t been any prior indication that Kopech was facing a potential injury absence. Nightengale reports that the hard-throwing righty has been battling forearm inflammation. He has not been diagnosed with any structural damage, though Nightengale indicates that the Dodgers will take a cautious approach early in the season.

Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Kopech pitched through what was seemingly a minor forearm issue during last fall’s World Series run. Acquired from the White Sox in a three-team deadline deal, Kopech had a brilliant first few months in Los Angeles. He fired 24 innings down the stretch and posted a 1.13 earned run average. He struck out 33% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on a fantastic 15.8% of his offerings.

Kopech’s playoff performance was a little more shaky. While he only allowed three runs in nine postseason innings, he issued seven free passes while striking out 10 batters. Kopech didn’t lose any life on his 98-99 MPH fastball, though, so that dip was probably more about small sample variance than a reflection that he was significantly hampered physically. His command has never been pristine.

For now, the forearm inflammation seems to be something worth monitoring rather than a huge concern. Nightengale suggests that Kopech could begin the season on the injured list, but no one from the team has publicly stated that’ll be the case. Even if he does miss a few weeks early in the year, the Dodgers have plenty of talent to weather his absence.

The Dodgers could have four or five potential closers. Scott closed for the Marlins for a few seasons before moving into a setup capacity with the Padres after a deadline trade. Evan Phillips had been L.A.’s primary closer for over a year before the Kopech acquisition. Phillips battled shoulder issues late in the season and wasn’t able to go in the World Series. The Dodgers brought back high-leverage arm Blake Treinen on a two-year contract early in the offseason. If they finalize the Yates deal, he could be the favorite for the ninth after saving 33 games for the Rangers. Skipper Dave Roberts will have plenty of high-octane arms he can juggle even if Kopech begins the year on the shelf.

Dodgers, Kirby Yates Reportedly Reach “Tentative” Agreement

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10:55am: There’s nothing official in place yet, per reports from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (among others). Harris writes that the two parties are “working toward a deal,” while The Athletic indicates “serious” negotiations are taking place. There could simply be semantics at play. Nightengale’s initial report plainly stated that a physical still needs to take place, so there’s never been firm indication of a final deal yet. A physical for a 38-year-old pitcher with Yates’ injury history isn’t necessarily a layup, but that seems to be the stage they’ve reached. If all goes well, a deal would be announced in the next few days.

9:52am: The Dodgers and reliever Kirby Yates have reached a “tentative” agreement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract is pending completion of a physical. Yates, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, would be the second high-profile bullpen addition for the Dodgers in recent days; they also inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal over the weekend. If the physical goes well and the deal is indeed finalized, L.A. will need to make a corresponding transaction to remove someone from the 40-man roster.

It’s the latest strike in an offseason spending blitz that has seen the Dodgers make free agent plays for Scott, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and international stars Hyeseong Kim and Roki Sasaki. Those additions come as Los Angeles looks to become the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees’ threepeat back in 1998-2000.

Manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen has been completely remade over the past six months, beginning with the deadline acquisition of Michael Kopech. In late July, closer Evan Phillips was struggling at the time of that Kopech acquisition, and much of the bullpen was in a state of flux. Since then, the Dodgers have acquired Kopech, activated Treinen from the injured list (and, this offseason, re-signed him to a two-year deal) and now signed both Scott and Yates in free agency. A late-inning contingent of Scott, Yates, Kopech, Phillips and Treinen is very arguably the most talented quintet of any team in baseball.

It should be noted, however, that Nightengale suggests the Dodgers recently learned of an injury to Kopech that could cost him at least a month of the season. Details on said injury have yet to surface, but that revelation likely played a part in the team’s decision to close an agreement with Yates.

Yates himself isn’t without risk. He’ll turn 38 in March, and he pitched all of 11 major league innings from 2020-22 due to injuries (Tommy John surgery, most notably). The veteran closer returned with a healthy but shaky season for the 2023 Braves, logging a sharp 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings but also walking nearly 15% of his opponents. He improved across the board with the 2024 Rangers, firing 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a gargantuan 35.9% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate was still noticeably higher than the 8.2% league average but a substantial improvement over his 2023 campaign nonetheless.

Yates ranked second among all free agent relievers in strikeout rate last year, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. He paced all qualified free agent relievers in ERA and ranked seventh or better in SIERA (2.85), K-BB% (24.1) and swinging-strike rate (15.2%). No qualified free agent reliever missed bats within the strike zone as much as Yates; his opponents’ 74.3% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone sat at the top of this year’s free agent class and sat as the third-best mark in all of baseball for pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, trailing only Josh Hader and Mason Miller.

Dating back to his breakout with the 2018 Padres, Yates has consistently been outstanding when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s pitched 257 innings in that time and boasts a 2.21 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaned on a lethal four-seamer and splitter pairing that’s helped him miss bats in droves while piling up 93 saves and 30 holds in 262 appearances on the mound.

The Dodgers are already well into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization. Any dollars allocated to Yates will come with a 110% tax, as was the case with Scott. RosterResource already projects the team’s luxury tax ledger to sit at a staggering $371MM; the addition of Yates could push their CBT number close to $400MM. The Dodgers were already set to owe around $108MM in overage taxes before the signing of Yates; presuming he gets an eight-figure salary, they’ll very likely owe more than $120MM in taxes alone.

Dodgers Had Interest In Kirby Yates Prior To Tanner Scott Deal

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The Dodgers made a big addition to their bullpen this weekend, agreeing to a deal with the winter’s top free agent reliever, left-hander Tanner Scott. Prior to that agreement, the Dodgers had some discussions with right-hander Kirby Yates, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times.

The interest is perfectly understandable, as Yates is coming off an excellent season. He tossed 61 2/3 innings for the Rangers last year, allowing only 1.17 earned runs per nine. His 11.8% walk rate was fairly high but also not abnormal for him. He worked around those free passes by striking out 35.9% of batters he faced and also getting grounders on 45.5% of balls in play. He took over the closer’s role in Texas, earning 33 saves on the year.

Despite that excellent season, the righty’s market will be limited. He is turning 38 years old in March, which will naturally put a cap on how long teams are willing to invest in him. He’s also had plenty of injury issues over the years. He hardly pitched at all from 2020 to 2022, with Tommy John surgery being the main reason. He returned to the mound in 2023 and had decent but not outstanding results, with a 3.28 ERA that year. His 31.5% strikeout rate was quite strong but a few ticks below his 2024 level, while the walks were even higher, finishing at 14.6%.

Atlanta could have kept him around for 2024 via a $5.75MM club option but opted for a $1.25MM buyout instead. That led to Yates getting a one-year, $4.5MM deal from the Rangers, which worked out great. His excellent season will definitely get him a bump from that level, but some hesitation from clubs is still justifiable.

The Dodgers have generally been willing to invest in talented pitchers, despite injury concerns. That hasn’t always worked out, as they have sometimes been heavily snakebit over the years, though they just hoisted the World Series trophy last year.

The club presumably still has some interest in Yates but the Scott deal might also lower their urgency. It’s not as though the bullpen was a glaring weakness to begin with. The club’s relief corps had a combined ERA of 3.53 last year, a mark bested by only three other teams in the majors. They lost Blake Treinen and Joe Kelly to free agency at season’s end but re-signed Treinen last month and now have Scott in the fold as well.

RosterResource currently projects the club to run a six-man rotation next year, which is certainly a possibility. In 2024, they avoided using Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a five-day schedule in order to help him make the transition from Japan, where starters normally throw once a week. In 2025, they will be folding in Roki Sasaki, who is younger than Yamamoto and has had more injuries in his career. They will also be getting guys like Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May back from lengthy surgery absences. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow haven’t been workhorses in their career either. Clayton Kershaw will presumably re-sign with the club and be back in the mix, though he’s had his own share of injury concerns lately. In short, having six starters and lowering everyone’s workload would be sensible.

Running a six-man rotation would normally limit a club to a seven-man bullpen, since clubs aren’t allowed to roster more than 13 pitchers. Ohtani’s status as a two-way player means he can effectively be counted as a position player, allowing the Dodgers to have both a six-man rotation and eight-man bullpen at times, though not at the start of the season. Ohtani missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery and then also required arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder just a few months ago. Last month, manager Dave Roberts said it’s unlikely Ohtani will be in the club’s rotation to start the year, so they may be capped at 13 pitchers and a seven-man bullpen until Ohtani can get back on the mound.

Scott and Treinen will be in two spots, with the Dodgers also having Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda and Ryan Brasier. That makes for seven arms that seem fairly locked in. Vesia is the only one that can be optioned and he just posted a 1.76 ERA last year. It’s still possible that the club signs Yates anyway then just waits to see if everyone stays healthy through the spring. If that comes to pass, they could then cut someone at the end of camp. But it’s also possible they will just pass on Yates and see how the season plays out with this group.

As mentioned, the club had a strong bullpen last year and has now added Scott to it. RosterResource also projects next year’s payroll at $369MM and their competitive balance tax number at $371MM, with both of those numbers close to $40MM beyond last year’s figures. Given how aggressive they’ve been, no one would be surprised if they kept adding, but they also might feel like they’ve done enough at this point.

If Yates needs to look elsewhere for his next contract, he should have plenty of options. He’s been connected to the Cubs, Tigers, Rangers and Diamondbacks this offseason and presumably has interest from other clubs as well. Teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox and Atlanta had some interest in Scott and could be looking elsewhere for relief help after he landed with the Dodgers. The relief market has been heating up more broadly of late, with Scott, A.J. Minter, Jose Leclerc, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Kittredge agreeing to deals in recent weeks.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Yates for a strong one-year deal with a $14MM guarantee. That was a reflection of his aforementioned excellent season but also his yellow flags. The offseason has been kind to some relievers, with Scott, Minter and Clay Holmes surpassing projections, though the Mets plan to stretch out Holmes as a starter. Hoffman came in below his prediction but that seems to have been a result of some concerns about his shoulder in his physical. Treinen got a two-year deal despite the fact that he’ll turn 37 this year and has a lengthy injury history. All those factors should lead to a healthy deal for Yates, regardless of which team he ultimately lands with.

Poll: Would You Trade The 2027 MLB Season For A Salary Cap?

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The past weekend seemed like something of a tipping point for fans of teams other than the Dodgers.  The Dodgers were able to land Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki on Friday for a mere $6.5MM bonus, given the restrictions on signing international players under the age of 25.  While Sasaki will enter the arbitration system for the final three years of team control from 2028-30, he still comes with incredible surplus value.

Then on Sunday, the Dodgers put an exclamation point on their weekend by signing the best reliever on the market, Tanner Scott, to the fifth-largest free agent contract ever at the position.  And yes, there was significant deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that’s a poll topic for another day.

We’ll hear from Sasaki soon enough, but surely the Dodgers’ previous monstrous offseason signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto helped lure him to Los Angeles.  Since the 2023 season ended, the club has also added Teoscar Hernandez (twice), Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and others, while brokering extensions for Glasnow, Will Smith, and trade pickup Tommy Edman.

It’s not easy to buy an MLB dynasty.  Others have tried, but the sport hasn’t seen back-to-back World Series winners since the 1998-2000 Yankees accomplished a three-peat.  Now, with a 12-team playoff format, that might be even harder for the Dodgers to pull off.

Most MLB teams don’t open their books to the public, so we don’t know how many clubs would be profitable at the $370MM payroll the Dodgers currently sport.  It’s fair to assume small market clubs could not support that type of payroll, even though some of them receive in excess of $150MM between national revenues and revenue sharing each year.

Some might argue that because of the nature of the MLB playoffs, the sport is already in good shape in terms of parity.  But because the Dodgers bring in so much revenue (particularly through their TV deal), they have advantages in acquiring players that many markets simply cannot match.  Maybe the Dodgers can’t guarantee a string of championships, but they haven’t won fewer than 98 regular season games since 2018 (extrapolating the pandemic season).  Their payroll is obviously part of their success.

The drumbeat from fans, at least on social media, seems to be getting louder for a salary cap.  It’s hard to argue: if all 30 teams were capped at spending, say, $200MM on player payroll, the regular season playing field would be leveled significantly.  There would be star free agents the Dodgers, Mets, and other big markets simply could not sign.  The salary cap would be tied to league revenue, and would rise accordingly.  I’m not convinced a salary cap (and floor) is the only way to improve parity, but it’s the most obvious one.

MLB owners have wanted a salary cap for a long time.  You may recall that was the reason for the 1994 strike, which cost us the World Series that year.  The players did not give in to that demand, though they did allow for the first luxury tax in subsequent years.

The thing about a salary cap is that it would almost certainly increase parity, but as the name states, it would also cap player earnings short of what the free market allows.  The expectation is that a salary cap would reduce the total amount of money earned by players, although commissioner Rob Manfred might argue that point.  That’s why MLB is not an unbiased source when they talk about how a salary cap is needed for competitive balance.

Baseball has always had the strongest union in sports, almost entirely because of one man: Marvin Miller.  Miller essentially created the MLBPA in 1966.  He ran it until 1982 and deserves credit for the advent of arbitration and free agency in MLB.  He also rallied players to go on strike or endure lockouts to ensure they only made forward progress, and did not accept a salary cap or even a luxury tax.

While the MLBPA has ceded ground since Miller retired, the sport still does not have a salary cap.  Baseball was able to avoid work stoppages since the ’94 strike, until owners locked out the players after the 2021 CBA expired in December.  Though negotiations often seemed perilous, ultimately a new five-year agreement was reached in March of 2022 and no games were lost.  The two sides seemed enough at odds that many observers wondered if we’ll simply now get a lockout every five years.

In the wake of the most recent CBA and given turmoil with television rights, MLB put together an “economic reform committee.”  The current CBA expires on December 1st, 2026.  It’s not hard to picture owners banding together for their strongest salary cap push since Bud Selig’s in ’94.  Assuming the MLBPA has enough solidarity under Tony Clark and Bruce Meyer to match its legacy, it follows that players might not give in, and some or even all of the 2027 season could be cancelled.

That leaves me with two questions for tonight’s poll.  (I apologize for my lack of clarity in the initial version of this poll: assume a salary cap comes with a floor).

 

And then the next question:

Jeff Torborg Passes Away

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Longtime former big league catcher, manager, and broadcaster Jeff Torborg passed away today at age 83, the White Sox announced.  Torborg played for 10 seasons with the Dodgers and Angels from 1964-73, and then managed the Indians, White Sox, Mets, Expos, and Marlins over parts of 11 seasons from 1977-2003.

Torborg was the Dodgers’ backup catcher behind John Roseboro and then Tom Haller during his seven seasons in Chavez Ravine, and this tenure was highlighted by a World Series with Los Angeles’ 1965 championship team.  That same season saw Torborg play a big role in one of the most memorable pitching performances in baseball history — Sandy Koufax’s 14-strikeout perfect game against the Cubs on September 9.

Torborg holds a unique place in baseball history as the only catcher who caught no-hitters from both Koufax and Nolan Ryan, as Torborg was behind the plate for the first of Ryan’s record seven career no-nos on May 15, 1973.  Torborg also caught Bill Singer’s no-hitter on July 20, 1970, and is one of only 18 catchers to ever catch three different no-hit games.

Over 574 games and 1525 plate appearances, Torborg hit eight home runs with a career slash line of .214/.268/.265.  He retired after the 1973 season at the end of a three-year stint with the Angels, and quickly moved into coaching with a job on the Indians’ staff in 1975.  This led to Torborg’s first managerial gig, as he was promoted to become Cleveland’s skipper partway through the 1977 season, and he managed the club through the end of the 1979 campaign.

It took a decade for Torborg to become a manager again, as after he spent the next decade on the Yankees’ coaching staff, he was hired as Chicago’s new manager prior to the start of the 1989 season.  He won only 69 games in his first year, but after the Sox surged to a 90-win season in 1990, Torborg was named the American League’s Manager of the Year.  The White Sox won 87 games in 1991 to finish second in the AL West for the second consecutive season, as Torborg’s Sox were beaten out first by an Athletics team that won three straight AL pennants, and then by the upstart Twins who won the 1991 World Series.

This successful run in Chicago led the Mets to lure Torborg away to become their next manager, with Torborg receiving a hefty four-year, $1.7MM contact.  Unfortunately, the 1992 Mets were one of the more infamous teams in franchise history, as the club’s splashy acquisitions of Bobby Bonilla, Bret Saberhagen, and others resulted in only a 72-90 record.  After the Mets stumbled again to a 13-25 start in 1993, Torborg was fired with more than two and a half years remaining on his contract.

Torborg returned to the dugout in 2001 as the Expos’ manager, but when then-Expos owner Jeffrey Loria took over as the Marlins’ new owner prior to the 2002 season, Torborg also went to South Florida as the Marlins’ new skipper.  Torborg had a 95-105 record in parts of two years with the Marlins, and the 2003 team went on to win the World Series after Jack McKeon stepped in as Torborg’s replacement.  Torborg’s overall managerial record was 634-718 over 1352 games with his five clubs.

Both before and after these stints in Montreal and Florida, Torborg worked as a TV and radio broadcaster.  He worked for CBS Radio throughout the 1990’s and for Fox in both the 90’s and 2000s, with Torborg calling Braves games in 2006.

MLB Trade Rumors sends our condolences to Torborg’s family, friends, and loved ones.

Dodgers To Sign Tanner Scott

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The Dodgers and left-hander Tanner Scott are in agreement on a four-year, $72MM deal, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Scott’s deal includes deferred money and a signing bonus, with FanSided’s Robert Murray adding that the signing bonus is $20MM while the deferred payments work out to $21MM. Scott is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

Scott was ranked as the #14 free agent in this winter’s class in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted that the lefty would land a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with L.A. comes in well above that mark, but that’s not necessarily surprising given reports earlier this month that indicated Scott could land a deal with an average annual value in the $20MM range. Ultimately, this deal doesn’t go quite that far, though his $18MM AAV is still quite the premium for his position. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Scott is tied for the third-highest AAV for a reliever in free agent history alongside Liam Hendriks’s deal with the White Sox with the pair trailing only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. Meanwhile, it’s the fifth-highest total guarantee a reliever has ever landed in free agency behind only Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.

The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only Félix Bautista of the Orioles and Cade Smith of the Guardians rank above Scott in both categories, and neither pitched in both the 2023 and ’24 seasons at the big league level.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely infallible. The southpaw struggled badly with his command earlier in his career, and those issues were a key factor in the lefty surrendering a pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP over his first six seasons in the majors. That’s left Scott without the lengthy track record of many of his peers in late-inning relief, and even this past season saw Scott walk 12.2% of his opponents. Scott managed to stay elite despite that hefty number of free passes by keeping the ball in the park the past two seasons, and the changes he’s made to improve his batted ball outcomes appear to be sustainable. Opponents barreled up 5.4% of their batted balls off Scott prior to the 2023 season, but the past two campaigns have seen that number drop to just 4.0%. Likewise, Scott’s Hard-Hit rate dropped from 36.2% in his career prior to 2023 down to just 26.7% over the past two seasons.

The Dodgers are clearly betting on his performance to remain as elite as it has been the past two seasons. L.A. got an up-close look at Scott’s dominance during last season’s NLDS, when he pitched three scoreless innings against the club for the Padres and garnered five strikeouts- four of which were against Shohei Ohtani. Looking ahead to the 2025 season, they’ll add Scott’s high-octane arm to an already strong bullpen that also features Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia in the late innings. With Scott presumably taking over as the club’s closer, the Dodgers will now have the flexibility to use those leverage arms earlier in the game. That’s particularly useful in the case of Vesia, as he was the Dodgers’ only late-inning relief option from the left side last season.

Per RosterResource, the signing of Scott has pushed the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 up to just under $369MM, with a nearly matching luxury tax payroll of just under $371MM. Those figures don’t factor in the deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that still puts the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 more than $40MM higher than 2024, which was already a franchise record. They’re the only team spending even $300MM in payroll this year, and one of just three teams (alongside the Phillies and Yankees) with a luxury tax payroll above that marker. The upper limit on the club’s payroll capacity is unknown, but signing Scott (and Roki Sasaki last week) appear to have checked the final boxes the Dodgers were known to be pursuing upgrades for this winter. While further upgrades to the roster certainly can’t be ruled out, the club’s roster has very little uncertainty and it would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers mostly stood pat over the final weeks before Spring Training beyond perhaps a long-anticipated deal to bring franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw back into the fold.

With Scott off the market, right-handers Carlos Estévez and Kirby Yates are perhaps the two best options still available in free agency for clubs on the hunt for bullpen help. Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, and Tommy Kahnle are among the other late-inning relief arms available. The Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs were among the other teams that have been connected to Scott throughout the winter, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks are among other clubs known to be in the market for late-inning relief help at this point in the offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLB Conducted Investigation Prior To Roki Sasaki’s Posting

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Prior to the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball officially posting right-hander Roki Sasaki for major league clubs last month, Major League Baseball conducted an investigation before authorizing Sasaki’s posting. Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times reported this afternoon that MLB’s investigation was in order to “ensure the protocol agreement had been followed” and involved interviews with multiple parties. A report from Fabian Ardaya, Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal, and Will Sammon of The Athletic added more details this evening, noting that the primary focus of the league’s probe was not Sasaki himself but rather the Marines. Both reports emphasize that the league found nothing that substantiated rumors of an illegal arrangement taking place.

That the league’s investigation focused on the Marines may seem somewhat surprising, but The Athletic’s report notes that the current posting system limits the payout for the Marines to just 25% of Sasaki’s total bonus. That’s a weak financial incentive for a club parting ways with its star player and represents not only a step back from the large posting fees players like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Seiya Suzuki have garnered for their clubs in recent years but also the $20MM posting fee the Nippon Ham Fighters were able to charge in exchange for Shohei Ohtani’s services when he signed with the Angels as an international amateur under the previous posting system back in December 2017. That relative lack of financial compensation for Sasaki’s services raised concerns among league officials for the potential for an under-the-table payment.

While MLB’s investigation found no wrongdoing by any party, speculation around the game of the possibility of an handshake agreement between Sasaki and the Dodgers grew significant enough to draw a strong denial from agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who represents the right-handed phenom. As described in The Athletic’s report, clubs around the game felt uncertain about Sasaki’s goals throughout his posting process as teams like the Mariners and Red Sox failed to land a meeting with the 23-year-old while large market teams like the Cubs, Yankees, and Mets did in spite of suggestions that he may prefer to avoid the spotlight.

Regardless of that confusion, it became clear earlier this week that Sasaki had narrowed things down to three finalists: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays, each of whom then visited with Sasaki in their respective cities and began to prepare their offers. According to The Athletic’s report, San Diego told Sasaki’s camp that they would be willing to trade to maximize their bonus pool and offer Sasaki the entirety of those funds while the Dodgers lined up a trade with the Phillies to add additional bonus pool money in the event that they landed Sasaki. The Blue Jays were especially aggressive in their pursuit of Sasaki, however.

While all three clubs were clearly willing to add significant bonus pool dollars in order to land Sasaki, Toronto acquired $2MM in international bonus pool space from the Guardians by taking on the majority of the money owed to center fielder Myles Straw over the next two years despite not actually having a deal in place with the right-hander. The impetus behind that trade utlimately did not work out for Toronto as Sasaki wound up choosing Los Angeles. Despit that, The Athletic’s report indicates that the Blue Jays believe Straw could be a worthwhile addition in his own right and that the money they took on to land him won’t be prohibitive as they continue to look for ways to upgrade their roster. Notably, center fielder Daulton Varsho is not expected to be ready for Opening Day and the addition of Straw could give the club some depth at the position while Varsho recovers.

Roki Sasaki To Sign With Dodgers

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The Dodgers have landed another star out of Japan. Roki Sasaki announced on Friday evening that he’s signing with Los Angeles. The Wasserman client will reportedly receive a $6.5MM signing bonus. The Dodgers have not officially announced the deal, which can be finalized at any point until the evening of January 23.

As an international amateur, Sasaki is limited to a minor league contract with a hard-capped signing bonus. He won’t immediately occupy a 40-man roster spot, though the team will certainly select him onto the MLB roster by Opening Day. In the end, it’s a fairly unsurprising result, though other outcomes seemed somewhat possible at times. The Dodgers have long been seen as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and though the Padres and Blue Jays tried to make surprising runs, the most likely outcome has now come to pass.

Sasaki’s free agency has been hotly anticipated for some time. He made his debut in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2021 at the young age of 19 and went on to post outstanding results over the past few years. Thanks to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and a deadly splitter, he has managed to post a 2.10 earned run average in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.

That performance would have made him one of the top free agents of this or any offseason, which normally would have lined him up for a massive payday. However, Sasaki seemed determined to start his major league career as soon as possible, without much regard for money.

If he had waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional under MLB rules, and thus able to sign for any amount the market would bear. That was the route taken by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who secured a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers last offseason.

But Sasaki is making the move now, having just turned 23 years old, meaning he is considered an amateur and thus subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system. Under that system, each team gets a set amount to spend on international amateurs annually. This year, each team gets between $5-8MM, a paltry amount compared to what Yamamoto secured. That at least made it theoretically possible that any club could sign him, since the big-spending clubs couldn’t outmuscle the smaller clubs like with many other free agents.

However, despite that theoretical even playing field, there were still many good reasons to expect the Dodgers to emerge victorious. Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolfe didn’t reveal much about the player’s preferences, but logically, the Dodgers are an attractive landing spot. They play on the West Coast, which is often appealing for players coming over from Asia simply due to the relative proximity. They have a strong track record of on-field success, having made the playoffs in each year going back to 2013 now and having just won the World Series a few months ago. They also roster a couple of other Japanese stars in Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

It wasn’t known how much Sasaki would weigh those factors compared to others. Wolfe pushed back on the notion that Sasaki cared about the presence of other Japanese players. He also suggested last month that Sasaki might prefer a smaller market, on account of some friction with the media during his time in Japan.

There were some arguments to possibly consider scenarios where he would prefer to go elsewhere. The Padres could have offered a smaller market than the Dodgers and it was reported that Sasaki has a strong relationship with current Padre Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, the club’s primary broadcaster, potentially giving them the ability to lower Sasaki’s access to the media. The fact that they are the only MLB team in Canada also theoretically opened up more endorsement opportunities from Japanese companies, as opposed to sharing the L.A. market with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Jays also had a larger international bonus pool than the Dodgers and added to it by acquiring more pool space from the Guardians in a trade earlier today.

But despite any short-term drama that played out this offseason, the most obvious thing has happened. Sasaki has joined a team that is already loaded with stars like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. 2005 was the last time the Dodgers won fewer than 80 games and now they are adding another hugely talented player into the mix.

Adding Sasaki’s talent is a huge boost to the roster but it’s also massive from a financial point of view. As an amateur, Sasaki will only be able to make the league minimum this year and until he qualifies for arbitration or signs an extension. That’s a massive thing for a club like the Dodgers, who already owe big sums of money to their aforementioned stars as well as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández and plenty of others.

It also gives them an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, at least in terms of pure talent. Their rotation mix now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. It’s a near inevitability that Clayton Kershaw will eventually re-sign. Even with each of Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan set to miss most or all of next season, the Dodgers’ rotation should run eight or nine names deep. Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso and formerly touted rookie Bobby Miller are all on hand as depth starters.

It’s a staggering amount of talent for one team. The Dodgers won the World Series last year in spite of their playoff rotation. This year, the rotation should be a strength going into October. That’s despite the injury risk associated with essentially everyone in the group. Glasnow has never surpassed 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts in his first MLB season by a rotator cuff strain. Snell has only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery late in 2023 and didn’t pitch last year.

Sasaki comes with plenty of durability questions in his own right. He averaged fewer than 100 innings per season over his four years in NPB. He never reached 130 innings and was limited to 111 frames across 18 appearances a year ago. Sasaki had a pair of injuries in 2024: an oblique tear and shoulder fatigue.

The Dodgers will happily take the tradeoff of some IL stints for rate dominance. Los Angeles doesn’t place much value on bulk innings. They’re content to embrace injury risk as they chase pitchers with top-of-the-rotation upside. That’s enabled in part by their resources, of course, though money isn’t a factor for Sasaki.

Every team would have been thrilled to sign Sasaki for $6.5MM. The Dodgers will also owe a $1.3MM posting fee to the pitcher’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. The posting fee is proportional to the size of the player’s signing bonus. As Sasaki’s bonus was capped at a few million dollars, the Marines were limited to 20% of whatever he received.

It comes out to a $7.8MM investment to land Japan’s most talented pitcher. The Dodgers have signed arguably NPB’s best pitcher in consecutive offseasons. They’ll have Sasaki for the standard six-year window of team control associated with the promotion of any prospect. He’ll be slated for salaries around the league minimum for the next three seasons. He’d then go through three years of the arbitration process. MLB rules prohibit the Dodgers and Sasaki from reaching any kind of understanding regarding a contract extension to circumvent the bonus pool limits. While there’s no official cutoff for when the Dodgers could look to extend Sasaki, they cannot have any sort of unofficial long-term deal in the works right now.

The Dodgers opened this signing period tied with the Giants for the lowest bonus pool. They had $5.1462MM to spend on international amateurs on January 15. The Dodgers allowed a few of their verbal agreements with teenage prospects to lapse to keep open funds for Sasaki. They added to their pool by dealing minor league outfielder Dylan Campbell to the Phillies and sending outfield prospect Arnaldo Lantigua to Cincinnati tonight. Their precise bonus allotment isn’t known, but Sasaki will take the vast majority of the pool. That’s a trade every team would happily make for a potential plug-and-play ace.

It’s a brutal blow for fans of the other two finalists. The Padres found out this morning that they were out of the mix. They have multiple holes in their rotation and now face an even tougher challenge in the NL West. The Blue Jays finish as the runner-up on yet another marquee free agent talent. Toronto has lost out on Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Sasaki (among others) within the past two offseasons alone.

Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first reported the signing bonus. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tanner Scott Weighing Multiple Offers, Could Sign This Weekend

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The market may be heating up for free agency’s top reliever. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reports that Tanner Scott is weighing multiple multi-year offers and may choose his team by this weekend.

Morosi suggests that the Cubs are among Scott’s top suitors. Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this week that the bullpen is “probably the area we’ve been focused on most in free agency.” There’d be no bigger upgrade than Scott, though that’d be an out-of-character move for Hoyer’s front office. The Cubs have not signed a free agent reliever to a multi-year deal or a guarantee above $9MM in more than five years.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes that while the Cubs do indeed like Scott, they may be reluctant to meet the asking price. Previous reporting has suggested that Scott’s annual salary could approach $20MM on what’d presumably be a three- or four-year contract. Even if the money doesn’t quite get to that level, this would be a major investment. Scott should easily land the top reliever deal of the winter.

The Dodgers have been tied to Scott for months. After landing Roki Sasaki, a back-end reliever is the last box on L.A.’s offseason checklist. The Braves have also shown interest, while the Mets were more recently reported as a suitor. That no longer seems to be the case. New York agreed to terms with A.J. Minter on a two-year, $22MM guarantee this afternoon. Mike Puma of The New York Post reports that the Minter deal means the Mets are expected to drop their run at Scott.

Scott has been one of the best relievers in baseball for two seasons. He fired 78 innings of 2.31 ERA ball for the Marlins in 2023. The 30-year-old southpaw was even better last year. Scott earned his first All-Star nod and combined for a sterling 1.75 earned run average through 72 frames between Miami and the Padres. He averages nearly 97 MPH on his fastball and has punched out at least 28% of opposing hitters in three straight seasons.

Dodgers Trade Arnaldo Lantigua To Reds For Pool Space

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The Dodgers announced that they’ve traded minor league outfielder Arnaldo Lantigua to the Reds for international bonus pool space. Cincinnati is reportedly sending $1.5MM in pool room to the Dodgers. Bonus pool money must be traded in multiples of $250K. Los Angeles now has sufficient funds to finalize their $6.5MM deal with Roki Sasaki.

Lantigua, 19, signed out of the Dominican Republic two seasons ago. The right-handed hitter has played two seasons in the Dominican Summer League and has yet to make the move stateside. Baseball America writes that he received mixed reviews from scouts despite a strong statistical performance. Lantigua has raw power projection on a 6’2″ frame but is expected to move to a corner outfield spot long term. That’ll put pressure on him to develop his pure hitting ability.

Cincinnati evidently preferred Lantigua as a development play to other players they may have added in this year’s international class. The Dodgers have added more than $2MM to their pool between this trade and their deal sending outfielder Dylan Campbell to Philadelphia. They had begun the day with $5.1462MM in their allotment.

The Lantigua deal allows the Dodgers to not only sign Sasaki but to finalize other low-cost international signings. L.A. lost a trio of players who had initially committed to join the team. Dominican infielder Darell Morel (Pirates), Venezuelan outfielder Oscar Patiño (White Sox), and Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano (Twins) have signed elsewhere. Francys Romero reports that L.A. intends to complete its other verbal agreements — roughly 15 in total. Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that the Dodgers finalized a deal with Venezuelan pitcher Carlos Ramirez tonight.

Francys Romero first reported that the Reds were acquiring Lantigua for more than $1MM in pool space. C. Trent Rosecrans and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the $1.5MM figure.

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