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Edwin Encarnacion

Latest On Edwin Encarnacion

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Although free-agent designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion is one of baseball’s most prolific sluggers over the past several years, there is no guarantee he will suit up in the majors again. Encarnacion wants to play two more seasons, but as a defensively limited 38-year-old coming off a brutal campaign with the White Sox, it’s possible no team will sign him this year. If there’s no universal DH in 2021, it would further hurt Encarnacion’s cause, as he acknowledged to Hector Gomez of Z Sports 101 in the Dominican Republic.

“The decision that there will be no universal DH in the 2021 season has greatly affected my chances of signing,” Encarnacion said. “I want a team to give me the opportunity to play daily to show that I can still produce.”

Indeed, the lack of a DH in the NL would lead to fewer potential suitors for Encarnacion. Either way, considering how his 2020 went, it would be difficult to imagine any team guaranteeing an everyday role to Encarnacion. He hit a career-worst .157/.250/.377 in 181 plate appearances, though Encarnacion did continue to show off above-average power (10 home runs, .220 ISO). He’s also just two years removed from recording a line of .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers and a .287 ISO in 486 PA between the Mariners and Yankees. That was Encarnacion’s eighth straight season with both 30-plus homers and terrific overall offensive production.

It may be too soon to write Encarnacion off as a result of the struggles he endured over a small sample of work in 2020, though it’s worth pointing out he also had an awful year by Statcast’s standards as well. For instance, Encarnacion posted a .372 expected weighted on-base average in 2019, but that figure plummeted to .268 last year as his exit velocity fell to near the bottom of the league (85.4 mph) and his strikeout rate soared to 29.8 percent.

It may take a spring rebound as a non-roster invitee to earn his way back for a 17th big league season, although injuries in camp could always open a more solid opportunity. Speculatively speaking, the A’s at least represent an on-paper fit for a low-cost roll of the dice after dealing Khris Davis earlier this month.

Free Agent Rumors: Bradley, Tigers, Encarnacion, Wong

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With the Red Sox now just a few million dollars shy of the luxury-tax threshold after their deals to bring in Garrett Richards, Enrique Hernandez, Martin Perez and Adam Ottavino, a reunion with Jackie Bradley Jr. appears unlikely, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote Sunday. That’s not especially surprising on its own, of course, but Olney notes more interestingly that Bradley “could wind up with a three-year deal elsewhere.” That’d be a strong outcome for Bradley, who’ll turn 31 in April, given the difficulty mid-tier free agents have had in securing lucrative deals this winter.

Bradley has been connected most frequently to the Mets in recent weeks, although he’s also reportedly drawn interest from the Blue Jays, the Cubs, the Phillies and the Astros at various points this winter. The Red Sox’ likely departure from any bidding for his services won’t help Bradley’s market, but most indications still seem to suggest that he has a case for a multi-year pact wherever he ultimately lands.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • Olney also writes that the Tigers could look further at the third tier of free-agent outfielders, listing names like Adam Duvall, Jay Bruce, Kevin Pillar, Tyler Naquin and Matt Joyce as potential fits. Detroit already inked Robbie Grossman to a two-year pact and will likely hand him the keys to an everyday gig in left field, but their outfield mix still isn’t quite settled. JaCoby Jones has shown flashes of high-quality play in center field but lacked consistency while battling injuries. Victor Reyes has had a nice run at the plate over the past couple of seasons but has yet to ever tally 300 MLB plate appearances in a given campaign. The Tigers have plenty of younger options in the form of Travis Demeritte, Daz Cameron, Derek Hill, Christin Stewart and Rule 5 pick Akil Baddoo, but the first four all have minor league options remaining and Baddoo is no lock to make the club.
  • Agent Paul Kinzer tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that his client, Edwin Encarnacion, hopes to play another two seasons at the MLB level and still has aspirations of reaching 500 home runs in his career (Twitter link). It feels like a stretch that Encarnacion could get to that mark in two years, given that he’s still 76 long balls shy of that illustrious milestone, however. The 38-year-old slugger has four seasons of 38 or more homers under his belt, but he’d need to land somewhere with an opportunity for everyday at-bats (presumably as a designated hitter) to even have a chance. Coming off a .157/.250/.377 showing in 2020, such an arrangement could be tough to find. That said, if Encarnacion rebounds in 2021 and is open to playing beyond the 2022 season, it’s conceivable that he could yet reach that mark.
  • There’s “little interest” in bringing second baseman Kolten Wong back for the Cardinals at this point, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote in his latest Q&A with readers. A new home for Wong has felt likeliest since the Cards bought out his $12.5MM option for the 2021 season, although some Cards fans have held out hope for a new deal as the two sides have reportedly stayed in touch throughout free agency. The infield market has picked up steam recently, but that hasn’t translated to a deal for Wong — arguably the game’s best defender at his position.

Twins, Nelson Cruz Resume Negotiations

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Nelson Cruz and the Twins have recently restarted talks on a new contract for the slugger, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Cruz had been looking for a two-year contract, but “the possibility of a one-year accord [is] now on the table” in his current discussions with Minnesota, Hayes writes.

Despite mutual interest in a continued relationship, there hasn’t been much action between Cruz and the Twins this offseason since both sides were fairly entrenched in their positions.  The team didn’t want to pay too much money and give more than one guaranteed year to a player who turns 41 in July, especially when a DH-only player like Cruz is (at the moment) limited to only American League teams.  From Cruz’s perspective, he was hopeful that his market could expand to NL teams if the universal DH was implemented, and as a result was looking for a two-year contract commensurate with his continued outstanding production.

Since there isn’t yet any movement towards the NL getting the designated hitter in 2021, that could explain why Cruz’s representatives have re-engaged with the Twins, and why there have be some flexibility from Cruz’s original two-year ask.  As Hayes notes, however, the two sides still have to “common ground on a salary,” which may not be simple since the Twins would ideally like to both re-sign Cruz and still have money left over to obtain more pitching.  Minnesota has weighed such alternate strategies as focusing all of its available payroll space on pitching and either letting its internal options handle the DH spot, or perhaps signing a cheaper alternative to Cruz — Hayes notes that Edwin Encarnacion has been considered as a possibility.

Or, in separate direction entirely, the Twins have also “floated” the idea of another free agent signing in Marcell Ozuna.  Such a move would pivot the club away from a pitching search, since Ozuna would be both pricier than Cruz and require at least a three-year contract.  Ozuna is over a decade younger than Cruz, of course, and while Ozuna might become a DH-only type in the future, Minnesota could deploy him as a part-time outfielder for at least a season or two.  It’s probably safe to assume that Ozuna is something of a Plan C for the Twins, just in case an agreement couldn’t be reached with either Cruz or any notable pitching targets.

Edwin Encarnacion Planning To Play In 2021

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Despite a tough 2020, Edwin Encarnacion is looking to return next year for his 17th Major League season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Encarnacion is on the free agent market after the White Sox declined their $12MM club option on his services.

Signed to a one-year, $12MM deal (with that 2021 option) last winter, Encarnacion struggled in Chicago, hitting only .157/.250/.377 with 10 home runs over 181 plate appearances and posting some ugly Statcast metrics.  Encarnacion’s continued production throughout his 30s has already been remarkable and he would hardly be the only slugger to hit a wall in his age-37 season, though there is some reason to believe that a turn-around is possible.  As Heyman notes, Encarnacion is a traditional slow starter, so the shortened season didn’t allow him time to ever really get on track.

With 424 career homers and a long track record of performance prior to 2020, Encarnacion is sure to get some attention on the open market.  However, his chances of landing another deal would greatly improve if the National League adopts the designated hitter again in 2021.  Encarnacion was deployed exclusively as a DH last season and has mostly worked only as a part-time first baseman in the last few years, so it remains to be seen if an NL team would entrust Encarnacion with a regular (or even semi-regular) first base gig without the luxury of a DH spot to keep him fresh.

White Sox Decline Options For Edwin Encarnacion, Gio Gonzalez; Exercise Leury Garcia’s Option

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The White Sox have declined their club options for designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion and left-hander Gio Gonzalez, per a team announcement. The club has picked up infielder/outfielder Leury Garcia’s $3.5MM option.

Retaining Encarnacion would have cost the White Sox $12MM, but they’ll move on from him without having to pay a buyout. Conversely, Gonzalez will receive a $500K buyout in lieu of the $7MM salary he could have earned next season. These are hardly surprising decisions by Chicago, as both Encarnacion and Gonzalez disappointed after joining the White Sox in free agency last offseason.

While Encarnacion is one of the most prolific sluggers in recent memory, having totaled eight straight 30-home run seasons before 2020, this year was a nightmare for him. He continued to show above-average power (10 home runs, .220 ISO), but Encarnacion limped to a .157/.250/.377 line across 181 plate appearances. Considering he brings no defensive value to the table and will turn 38 before next season, it was surely an easy call to cut the cord for the White Sox.

Like Encarnacion, Gonzalez fell well short of his career-long track record as a member of the Sox. The 35-year-old has eight seasons of 30-plus starts under his belt, but he spent most of this campaign in the bullpen. Gonzalez wound up with four starts in 12 appearances and a 4.83 ERA/5.50 FIP with 9.66 K/9 against 5.4 BB/9 over 31 2/3 innings.

The White Sox could have bought out Garcia for $250K, but they’ll instead keep the versatile 29-year-old. While Garcia had an abbreviated season because of a thumb injury, he did slash a respectable .271/.317/.441 with three homers and a 14.3 percent strikeout rate in 63 trips to the plate.

AL Notes: Rays, Phillips, White Sox, Encarnación, Vaughn, Rodon, Gonzalez, Mazara

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The Rays and Astros have roster decisions to make before their 10am deadlines. Both teams plan on adding a pitcher for the ALCS. For the Rays, Josh Fleming, Jose Alvarado, Ryan Sherriff, or even Brent Honeywell look like the top candidates to join the roster, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Brett Phillips, meanwhile, could be the odd man out now that Austin Meadows is back in the lineup. On the other hand, if the Rays choose to decide the roster spot by dance battle, Phillips should be safe. The former Royal and Brewer has appeared in four games this postseason, largely being used as a defensive replacement.

Now, lest we spend the entire evening on the postseason alone, let’s check in on a team that hopes to have these kinds of decisions to make in years to come…

  • The White Sox have some options pending after their most successful season in over a decade, and the Athletic’s James Fegan provides a rundown. One of the easier calls will be declining the $12MM club option on designated hitter Edwin Encarnación. It’s true that Encarnación didn’t exactly dazzle this year with a triple slash of .157/.250/.377, but more telling is GM Rick Hahn’s comment about #3 overall draft pick of the 2019 draft: Andrew Vaughn. Per Fegan, Hahn said, “Given his makeup and given his tools, it’s hard to look at him and rule him out of being able to help a team in the not too distant future.”
  • Like ships passing in the night, just as one #3 pick could soon embark on his White Sox career, another in Carlos Rodon could be nearing an end. The big lefty will be due at least a nominal raise on his $4.45MM contract, and there’s a decent chance that’s too rich given his inability to stay healthy. The White Sox will be looking for stability for their rotation now that their contention window has firmly opened. With that in mind, it’s likely they decline Gio Gonzalez’s $7MM option as well.
  • Perhaps the most surprising tidbit in the group is Fegan’s suggestion that Nomar Mazara is heading for a DFA. Not so shocking when considering his 42-game .228/.295/.294 line he put up across 194 plate appearances this year. But taking the long view, this certainly isn’t where the 25-year-old appeared to be heading when he made his debut in Texas as a 21-year-old.

Edwin Encarnacion, Nick Madrigal Exit With Shoulder Issues

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10:55pm: Manager Rick Renteria announced that Madrigal’s dealing with a jammed shoulder, Fegan relays.

9:27pm: The White Sox suffered a pair of potentially alarming injuries in their game against the Brewers on Tuesday, per tweets from James Fegan of The Athletic and Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion and second baseman Nick Madrigal departed early with left shoulder problems. The team will reevaluate both players Wednesday.

Encarnacion was one of several key offseason pickups for the White Sox, who signed him to a one-year, $12MM deal in free agency. At the time, they surely expected the eight-time 30-home run hitter to continue as a powerful force in their uniform. That hasn’t happened in the early going, as the 37-year-old has slashed an unimposing .200/.250/.300 with one homer in his first 33 plate appearances this season. That’s obviously not a large enough sample size to pass judgment, however, and there’s plenty of time for Encarnacion to get on track if he’s healthy enough to do so. Chicago replaced him with Zack Collins on Tuesday.

Madrigal, meanwhile, was only in his fifth major league game before he exited. The recently promoted 23-year-old, who’s regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, got off to a .294/.333//.294 start in 18 PA prior to his injury. Chicago called on Danny Mendick to fill in for Madrigal at the keystone.

Three Teams Played Musical Chairs With First Basemen…And Five Teams Came Away Winners

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Last week, I looked at Cole Sulser’s prospects of making an impact in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Sulser found his way to Baltimore via Tampa Bay after being included in a three-way swap of more prominent players. Today, let’s take a look at those players. 

To review: in December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around their first basemen. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with (at least one) major-league first baseman. The Rays got Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, while the Indians snagged a pair of first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. 

There were auxiliary pieces that fit less cleanly into our first basemen carousel. The Rays picked up Sulser from Cleveland, while Tampa also sent $5MM to the Mariners. Seattle paid that money forward, sending a total of $6MM to the Indians. Coming back to Seattle was the Indians’ Round B selection in the draft. The Mariners ended up selecting right-handed pitcher Isaiah Campbell out of Arkansas with the #76 pick in the draft. Those pieces aside, let’s check in on how each team is feeling about their end of this whirlwind deal one season after the fact.

Indians

This move – and much of their offseason last winter – was largely about shuffling money around – but not wholly so. The Indians took back Santana, who had only recently been sent to Seattle after playing one season in Philadelphia. Santana made $20.3MM in 2019, but his contract was offset by sending out Encarnacion, who was owed $21.7MM in 2019 with a $5MM buyout for 2020. The difference in their salaries, plus the money acquired from Seattle netted the Indians close to $7.5MM in 2019, though they took on more long-term money in Santana.

On the field, this deal basically amounts to two exchanges for the Indians: Santana over Encarnacion in terms of big-money players, and Bauers over Diaz for cost-controlled assets. As for the first exchange, the Indians have to count this as a win. After one so-so year with the Phillies, Santana returned to form in a big way with the Indians. All aspects of Santana’s game came together in 2019. He hit .281/.397/.515 on the year with 34 home runs and 110 RBIs. He turned in his typically strong BB-K numbers, posting identical walk and strikeout rates of 15.7% (slight improvements on his career norms in both departments). His isolated power (.234 ISO) was the second-highest mark of his career, while the .397 OBP was a new career-high for a full season. Santana’s season totaled 4.6rWAR/4.4 fWAR, good for 135 wRC+, and he’ll be back in their lineup for 2020.

Bauers, on the other hand, is a work in progress. He brings an added level of versatility, appearing in 31 games at first and 53 games in left, but he’ll need to improve at the plate to put that value to work. Bauers hit just .226/.312/.371 across 423 plate appearances in his first season with the Indians. His walk rate dropped to 10.6% and with a power mark of just .145 ISO. That’s not enough pop from a first baseman/left fielder. He finished with below-average marks of 78 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. Still, all hope is not lost for Bauers. A career-low .290 BABIP might point to some positive regression in the future, and he doesn’t even turn 25-years-old until October.

Mariners

The Mariners’ biggest get here was the draft pick. GM Jerry Dipoto continued his rebuild, and ultimately, the swap of sluggers was an avenue to add another draft pick. After taking on Santana a week prior, the Mariners shed long-term money by swapping in Encarnacion, whom they eventually flipped to the Yankees.

While with the Mariners, Encarnacion was about as good as expected, slashing .241/.356/.531 with 21 home runs in 65 games. With the rebuild in full swing, EE was never expected to spend a full season in Seattle. Given his start to the year, the Mariners’ return for the DH was a little underwhelming, but the market for teams in need of a designated hitter was limited. Still, Trader Jerry added right-hander Juan Then from the Yankees. Fangraphs ranks Then as the Mariners’ #13-ranked prospect after finishing the season in A-ball. Campbell, selected with the acquired draft choice, comes in at #16.

The Yankees and Mariners essentially split the remaining money owed Encarnacion at the time, so the M’s did see some financial benefit as well. It’s often difficult to track the wheeling and dealing done by Dipoto, but we can give it a go here. To do so, we have to go back to the deal that sent Santana from the Phillies to Seattle. Dipoto sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, and James Pazos to Philly for Santana and J.P. Crawford. In sum, he started with Segura, Nicasio, and Pazos, and the Mariners ended up with Crawford, Then, and Campbell, along with some financial saving both in the short-and-long-term.

Rays

It was surprising to see the Rays move Jake Bauers at the time of this deal, but they’re no stranger to dealing from a young core. The Rays picked up Sulser and Diaz for Bauers in this trade, while also sending $5MM to the Mariners. Considering Sulser was eventually lost on waivers to the Orioles (though he did give them 7 scoreless innings in 2019), the move essentially amounts to the Rays paying $5MM to swap in Diaz for Bauers. At the time of the deal, Bauers was seen as an up-and-comer, while Diaz was a little-known 27-year-old utility player with little-to-no boom in his boomstick. As has often been the case of late with Rays’ trades, at a cursory glance, the Rays were trading away controllable youth for a role player.

But where the Rays are concerned, it’s often worth delving a little further. Diaz quickly became known for his above-average exit velocities. And while Diaz was a little older and without the prospect pedigree of Bauers, he came with similar team control, more versatility given his ability to line up at the hot corner, and his biceps have a cult following all their own.

Injuries unfortunately limited Diaz’s production in 2019, but when he was on the field, he was dynamite. While posting a line of .267/.340/.476 across 79 games, Diaz was coming into his own as a hitter with a 116 wRC+. Diaz’s minor league career to this point was a testament to his ability to get on base, limit strikeouts, and make hard contact, but a groundball-heavy approach limited his power.

But it was a different story in Tampa. Diaz produced a career-best .208 ISO to go with a 91.7 mph exit velocity that put him in the top 8% of the league, per Statcast. His hard-hit percentage continues to be well above average, and a small improvement in launch angle and a large jump in barrels led to Diaz smashing 14 home runs in 79 games after hitting just 1 in 88 big league games with the Indians.

Not only that, but Diaz returned from the injured list in time for the playoffs, leading off the wild card game with a solo shot off Sean Manaea. Diaz went deep his second time up as well, at which point the Rays had more than enough to get past the A’s. It was a monster performance from Diaz in the biggest game of the year up to that point. (Things didn’t go quite so well for Diaz in Houston, as he went 0 for 9 with four strikeouts in the ALDS.) The Rays have to feel pretty good about where they stand with Diaz moving forward, as he should continue to be a cheap source of offense for the next couple of seasons.

For that matter, all three teams have to feel pretty good about this deal, as they each accomplished their goal. If Bauers has a better showing in 2020 and the Mariners’ prospects come to fruition, there will ultimately be very little not to like about this three-way deal. Include the Orioles for nabbing Sulser and the Yankees for getting a half a season of Encarnacion, and it could be argued that five teams actually came away winners from this three-way swap of first baseman.

The Jays Turned A Free Agent Whiff Into An Elite Pitching Prospect

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The 2016 season was a pivotal year for the Blue Jays. Fresh off an ALCS loss to the Royals in 2015, the Jays entered the year with reigning MVP Josh Donaldson set to play out his age-30 campaign and a series of notable free agents, headlined by Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They’d surrendered two MLB-ready arms — Daniel Norris and Matthew Boyd — for a David Price rental the prior summer and parted with another top pitching prospect (Jeff Hoffman) to escape their commitment to the declining Jose Reyes and swap him out for Troy Tulowitzki. Some of the dreaded “closing window” narratives were surrounding the club, and the Jays were clearly in win-now mode.

Toronto again made the playoffs, again won a Division Series matchup over the Rangers … and again fell to an AL Central club in the League Championship Series — this time the Indians. The offseason came around, and Toronto made issued a pair of no-brainer qualifying offers to Bautista and Encarnacion, who were two of the top bats on that winter’s market.

From the begining, Encarnacion seemed to be the bigger target. Bautista had dropped some jaws in Spring 2016 when talking about his asking price on a long-term deal, but Encarnacion was younger and seemingly more affordable. Toronto was aggressive early in the winter, reportedly putting forth a four-year offer that carried in the vicinity of $80MM of guaranteed money. There were some expectations that winter that Encarnacion could best that mark — we at MLBTR pegged him for four years at a slightly higher annual rate — and his camp seemed to prefer to explore the market before taking that offer. That decision blew up in Encarnacion’s face, though, as Toronto pivoted almost instantly and signed Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM deal. By Nov. 18, it appeared Encarnacion had been replaced.

There were still some rumors about a potential reunion even after Morales was signed, but it never seemed likely that the Jays would commit to Morales at DH and Encarnacion at first base — tying up long-term dollars in a pair of sluggers best suited for DH work. Encarnacion drew varying levels of interest from the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but in the end, his market bizarrely came down to a bidding war between two of the game’s smaller-payroll clubs: the Athletics and the Indians.

Oakland likely saw a chance to add a premium bat at an affordable rate. Encarnacion’s market had collapsed to the point where he was reportedly mulling a shorter offer with a roughly $25MM annual value (presumably a two-year deal) with the A’s. The Indians, fresh off a World Series loss, were in go-for-it mode with extra cash thanks to that deep postseason run. Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60MM deal with Cleveland that contained a fourth-year option which would get him to the $80MM mark he’d previously passed up.

The Jays took some heat from the deal both among media pundits and their fans. Encarnacion was the clear better player and ultimately cost less than twice what Toronto gave Morales. And from an on-field perspective, those criticisms were 100 percent valid. Over the first two years of each player’s three-year pact, here’s how they performed:

  • Morales: .249/.318/.442, 49 home runs, 40 doubles in 1079 plate appearances (103 OPS+, 102 wRC+; 0.8 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR)
  • Encarnacion: .252/.358/.490, 70 home runs, 36 doubles, two triples in 1248 PAs (123 OPS+, 123 wRC+; 4.7 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR)

Neither one played out the third year of his contract with the team that signed him. Morales was traded to the Athletics on the eve of Opening Day 2019, and Encarnacion had been moved to the Mariners in a complex three-team deal that sent Carlos Santana back to Cleveland with Yandy Diaz and others landing in Tampa Bay.

Many onlookers will say that the Encarnacion camp misread the market after their initial talks with teams. Some would argue that it was the Jays who misread things when they pivoted to Morales so quickly. You can argue that both parties failed to properly evaluate the free-agent landscape.

Encarnacion got his $60MM and then signed for another $12MM with the White Sox this winter, so he ultimately didn’t fall much shy of that reported four-year, $80MM sum. With the benefit of hindsight, it looks like the Jays came away with the short end of the stick — at least until you consider the compensatory draft pick they netted when Cleveland inked Encarnacion. Because the guarantee was greater than $50MM, the Jays’ comp pick landed between Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A. That pick proved to be No. 28 overall, which Toronto used to select right-hander Nate Pearson.

Not only is Pearson now the runaway top Blue Jays’ prospect — he’s one of the best pitching prospects on the planet. The 23-year-old ranks among the 10 best prospects in baseball at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs, drawing considerable praise for his blistering triple-digit heater and a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. When ranking Pearson as baseball’s No. 8 overall prospect this winter, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’s personally seen Pearson’s slider climb as high as 95 mph, adding that the pitch generally sits in the low 90s. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com write that Pearson has “as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect in the game.”

It’s true that Pearson has yet to demonstrate the ability to make 30 starts in a season, although that’s due largely to a fractured forearm sustained when he was hit by a comeback line drive. Pitchers who throw this hard will always give some onlookers a red flag, and Pearson did have a screw put into his right elbow during high school. He was healthy in junior college, though, and the Jays diligently kept his innings count down in 2019 after he threw just 22 innings in 2018. Pearson reached 101 2/3 frames last year, spinning a dominant 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9 and a ground-ball rate near 40 percent. He also topped out at Triple-A in his first full, healthy pro season and is widely expected to make his MLB debut in 2020.

Not every draft pick is guaranteed to be a hit, as evidenced by the Jays’ actual, organic first-round pick in the same 2017 draft that produced Pearson. Shortstop Logan Warmoth, selected out of UNC six picks prior to Pearson, has managed a .255/.332/.346 batting line in 947 pro plate appearances. He was a high-end draft prospect but doesn’t currently rank inside Toronto’s top 30 farmhands at MLB.com or their Top 38 at FanGraphs. Not exactly ideal for a recent first-rounder.

Luckily for the Jays, Encarnacion’s decision not to take their four-year offer — which would’ve run through the 2020 season — both saved them some cash and gave them a second bite at the first-round apple in 2017. And thanks to their scouting department’s decision to take a chance on a towering, flamethrowing righty in spite of a high school elbow scare, the Jays have a potential ace in the making who is on the cusp of reaching the big leagues.

The Effects Of The Largest Contract In Indians History

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We updated each major league team’s largest contract of all-time last week. Nothing has changed of late for the Indians, whose biggest guarantee remains the three-year, $60MM pact they gave first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion in advance of the 2017 season. That ties the Pirates (six years, $60MM for Jason Kendall) for the least expensive sum on the list, which further indicates that the Indians probably won’t be able to keep superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor from hitting the free-agent market after the 2021 season.

Edwin Encarnacion

When Encarnacion reached free agency three years ago, few people (or maybe no one at all) thought he would choose Cleveland. At the outset of that offseason, MLBTR ranked Encarnacion as the sport’s second-best free agent and predicted he’d land a four-year, $92MM contract. It seemed like a reasonable call at the time in light of the marvelous production Encarnacion put up as a Blue Jay over the previous seasons. In a 3,133-plate appearance span from 2012-16, Encarnacion collected the majors’ second-most home runs (193) and parlayed a .272/.367/.544 line into the league’s fifth-highest wRC+ (146), not to mention 20.7 fWAR.

Despite the wonderful numbers Encarnacion compiled as a Blue Jay, his market didn’t come together as planned after his tenure with the team concluded. Encarnacion had his sights set on a guarantee approaching $100MM, evidenced by reports that he rejected a Toronto offer in the range of $80MM over four years. That turned out to be a blessing for the Blue Jays, who wouldn’t have contended from 2017-19 even with Encarnacion on their roster. And by issuing Encarnacion a qualifying offer and allowing him to depart, the team received a first-round pick (No. 28) in 2017 as compensation. With that selection, the Jays chose right-hander Nate Pearson, now one of the premier prospects in baseball.

While hitting Encarnacion with a QO did benefit Toronto, it didn’t do his market any favors when he became a free agent. Neither Encarnacion’s age (he was on the verge of turning 34) nor defensive limitations that mostly limited interest in him to American League teams helped his cause, either. The Astros, Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox were said to have pursued him to at least some extent, while even the low-budget Athletics tried to swoop in and grab Encarnacion when it became clear he was going to sign for less than expected.

The fact that Cleveland is closer than Oakland to Encarnacion’s native Dominican Republic reportedly played a role in his decision. And the Indians did give him a pact that could have maxed out at $80MM, depending on whether they’d exercise a $20MM club option for 2020. That option was ultimately declined this past winter, but not by the Indians, with whom Encarnacion lasted just two seasons and whose signing cost the club a first-rounder.

Back when Cleveland inked Encarnacion, it was coming off a seven-game World Series loss to the Cubs. The fact that the Indians went as far as they did that year was a boon to their bottom line and reportedly had some impact on their decision to go after Encarnacion. He came in to replace Mike Napoli, whom the Indians let walk after their pennant-winning campaign, and provided an instant upgrade.

Encarnacion batted .258/.377/.504 (130 wRC+) with 38 HRs in 669 PA and 157 games in his first year as an Indian. That output aided the Indians in their second straight AL Central title-winning season, but another deep playoff run wasn’t in the cards as they fell in the first round to the Yankees. While the club went on to a third consecutive division championship in 2018 (and yet another first-round loss, this time to the Astros), it did so without fellow first baseman/DH Carlos Santana, whom it lost to the Phillies in free agency during the previous offseason.

The addition of Encarnacion the year prior helped protect the Indians from Santana’s departure, but the former only managed pedestrian production by his standards that season. Encarnacion did rack up another 32 dingers, though his .246/.336/.474 showing in 579 PA led to his worst wRC+ (115) since before he morphed into a force several years earlier. That proved to be the end of the line on his Indians tenure.

In December 2018, the Indians traded Encarnacion to the Mariners in a three-team deal that also involved the Rays. The move returned Santana to Cleveland, as Philly ended its union with him after only one season when it sent him to Seattle earlier that month, but there was more to the blockbuster. The Indians also had to send third baseman Yandy Diaz and right-hander Cole Sulser to Tampa Bay, which dealt first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers to Cleveland. Diaz has been a real loss for the Indians thus far – he got his first extended major league opportunity last year and showed well, though injured limited him to 79 games. Sulser did nice work with the Rays’ Triple-A team last season, but he was also 29 at the time; they’ve since lost him on waivers to the Orioles. And though Bauers was once a well-regarded prospect, the 24-year-old didn’t hit much in either the majors or minors in 2019.

The best player in the Encarnacion/Santana deal a year ago was the latter, who went to his first All-Star Game and recorded a career-high 4.4 fWAR. The 34-year-old switch-hitter has one more guaranteed season left at just under $21MM. The Indians will have a chance to keep Santana around in 2021 for $17.5MM, but they could instead buy him out for just $500K. So, because we may not even see a 2020 season, it’s possible Santana won’t play for the Indians again.

As for Encarnacion, who had a fine 2019 divided between the Mariners and Yankees, he’s now a member of one of the Indians’ division rivals. Encarnacion revisited the open market this past winter, though he didn’t cash in to nearly the same degree, inking a one-year, $12MM guarantee with the White Sox. That pact also includes a $12MM club option for 2021, so if there is no season, Encarnacion could still stick around in Chicago beyond this year. Based on the length and dollar figure, Encarnacion has a better chance to live up to that accord than the one the Indians gave him. For them, signing Encarnacion to a franchise-record contract didn’t go as hoped.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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