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Ty Madden Diagnosed With Rotator Cuff Strain

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The Tigers released medical updates on various players in camp, with Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press among those to pass them along. One of the more notable items on the list is that right-hander Ty Madden has a rotator cuff strain in his throwing shoulder. It’s unclear how long the Tigers expect him to be out but it seems fair to expect him to miss at least a few weeks.

Madden, now 25, made his major league debut last year. He tossed 23 innings over six appearances. Only one of those was technically a start, with manager A.J. Hinch deploying his “pitching chaos” strategy, but each was a bulky outing between 2 1/3 and 5 innings. Madden allowed 4.30 earned runs per nine in that time.

He also had a 6.98 ERA over 22 minor league starts, though that’s likely a misleading number. His 28.3% strikeout rate was solid and his 9.8% walk rate only a tad higher than average. He allowed 18 home runs but also had a .371 batting average on balls in play and 58.9% strand rate. His 4.79 FIP was more than two runs lower than his ERA.

Going into 2025, Madden wasn’t likely to break camp in the rotation. Even with Alex Cobb likely to start the season on the injured list due to hip inflammation, the Tigers project to have Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson in three spots. Candidates for the final two spots include Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda, Jackson Jobe, Brant Hurter, Keider Montero, Matt Manning and Madden. The Tigers should be fine in terms of cobbling a rotation together while Madden is out, but they will have one fewer depth option for the time being.

Another item of note in the injury report is that catcher Brian Serven has been diagnosed with a left oblique strain. Again, no specific timetable was provided for his injury but it seems fair to expect him to miss some time. Serven is in camp on a minor league deal and isn’t the most essential part of the organization. However, the Tigers only have two catchers on their 40-man roster in Jake Rogers and Dillon Dingler. Assuming Serven could still be recovering in a few weeks, they could start the season with less non-roster depth. Tomás Nido is also in camp but perhaps the Tigers will bring in another veteran on a minor league deal, either now or when guys get squeezed out by camp cuts in the coming weeks.

The injury report also notes that Wenceel Pérez has been dealing with some low back tightness. That doesn’t seem to be an especially worrisome issue, but it’s something to keep an eye on, given the other hits to the outfield depth in Detroit. Matt Vierling has a rotator cuff strain and will start the season on IL while Parker Meadows has been battling a nerve issue in his right arm with an uncertain timeline.

Pérez is a logical guy to fill in while Vierling and perhaps Meadows miss some time, though that obviously wouldn’t happen if Pérez is himself injured. Per the injury report, both Meadows and Vierling have begun some light baseball activities, so perhaps the outfield concern won’t last too long into the season.

MLBTR Podcast: Jose Quintana, Luis Gil’s Injury, The Nats’ TV Situation, Salary Floor Talk, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With MASN now solved and stadium naming rights and jersey patches on the way do you see the Nationals making the leap into big spenders sooner than later? (12:30)
  • Do you see the MLBPA pushing for a salary floor? (22:05)
  • Will the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr. before the start of the regular season? (25:20)
  • While neither is particularly likely, is it more probable that the Pirates extend Paul Skenes or the Reds extend Elly De La Cruz? (27:40)
  • What is your opinion of the White Sox upper management and will they lose 100 games this year? (30:45)
  • The Mets are loaded with infield prospects. Do they trade Jeff McNeil to make room? (37:30)
  • With the Tigers’ outfield injuries, do they go get a right-handed bat? And who is available? (42:00)
  • With the Mariners bringing back most of their position players, what are the chances they get better production from them in 2025? (44:30)
  • Does David Bote have a legitimate shot to make the Dodgers’ roster? (50:35)
  • Why doesn’t MLB expand to 36 teams instead of just 32? (51:35)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Parker Meadows Sidelined By Nerve Issue In Right Arm

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Tigers center fielder Parker Meadows has halted baseball activities due to a nerve problem in his upper right arm, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery).  It is unclear at this point if Meadows will be ready for the start of the season, due to what Hinch noted as the fluid nature of the injury.

“My understanding is that we’re in a wait-and-see situation,” Hinch said.  “We have to get that nerve firing again for [Meadows] to resume baseball activities.  It could be short-term, or it could linger a little.  No one has a firm timeline, but we feel like we’re on a good path now that we have a diagnosis and a treatment plan.”

After hitting .232/.331/.368 over 145 plate appearances during his 2023 rookie season, Meadows took another step forward by batting .244/.310/.433 in 298 PA last year, with the increase in slugging percentage fueling his jump from a 95 wRC+ in 2023 to a 111 wRC+ in 2024.  The improvement didn’t come in smooth fashion, however, as Meadows hit so poorly over the first six weeks that the Tigers demoted him to Triple-A in early May, and didn’t recall him until early July.  Upon returning to the Show, Meadows almost immediately picked up a hamstring injury that put him on the injured list for another month.

Meadows was activated from the 10-day IL on August 3, and proceeded to hit a strong .296/.340/.500 with six homers over his final 201 PA of the season while playing pretty much every day in center field.  Between this production at the plate and his excellent glovework, Meadows was one of the key drivers of the late-season surge that saw the Tigers go from deadline sellers to a wild card berth.  Meadows then kept it going in October, batting .269/.345/.462 in 29 PA during Detroit’s playoff run.

If Meadows can continue this type of offense in addition to his strong defense and baserunning, the former second-round pick projects as a cornerstone piece for a Tigers team that has emerged from its rebuild.  The plan was for Meadows to again be the everyday center fielder, though this nerve problem throws a possible wrench in the works.

Riley Greene or Wenceel Perez are the likeliest candidates to handle center field if Meadows does need to miss time, but the larger issue is that the Tigers may suddenly have a shortage of outfield depth.  News broke yesterday that utilityman Matt Vierling will start the season on the IL while recovering from a rotator cuff strain, leaving the Tigers without a player projected to get playing time at either third base or right field (or a mixture of both positions).  If Meadows’ nerve problem sets him back enough that he’ll also need to hit the injured list, utilitymen Zach McKinstry or Andy Ibanez will get more playing time in some capacity, and Detroit could also utilize Kerry Carpenter in right field whenever a right-handed pitcher is on the mound.

10 Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring

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One of the most interesting elements of spring training every year, at least for those of us who feast on roster construction minutiae, is the collection of players who are out of minor league options. MLBTR just released a full list of such players earlier today.

In many instances, a player being out of minor league options is inconsequential. Justin Steele, Isaac Paredes and Evan Phillips are among the players who fit that description but are in no risk of losing their MLB roster spot. They're all key players on big league rosters who'd never be in danger of being sent down to the minors anyhow.

However, there are typically a handful of players every spring who are on the roster bubble with their current club but who could be a better fit on a team with less competition in their current position. Most of these players have already had big league opportunities with their current club but whether due to injury or poor performance (or both) have yet to firmly seize hold of a roster spot. As players exhaust their minor league options, they'll tend to face increased competition from younger players progressing through the minor league ranks and/or external additions made via trade or free agency. An out-of-options player who doesn't fit his current roster can still go on to find a more solid role and some success elsewhere. Joey Bart was in just this spot last year and after being squeezed out in San Francisco has emerged as Pittsburgh's starting catcher. The Yankees didn't have a spot for Ben Rortvedt, but he's the Rays' clear No. 2 catcher now.

Let's run through 10 names to keep an eye on this spring. Not all of these players will lose their roster spots, and even some who do might not wind up making an impact elsewhere. But each of the names listed here has some reason to hold a bit more intrigue than many of their out-of-options brethren (players listed alphabetically)...

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Matt Vierling Ruled Out For Opening Day Due To Rotator Cuff Strain

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The Tigers announced this morning that third baseman/outfielder Matt Vierling has been diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff in his right shoulder. He will be shut down for a period of rest before being re-evaluated for baseball activities. Manager A.J. Hinch informed reporters, including Evan Woodbery of the MLive Media Group, that Vierling will not be ready by Opening Day and will start the season on the injured list.

Vierling, 28, has been a solid player for the Tigers over the past two years. He hit .259/.320/.406 for a 104 wRC+ over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He mostly played the outfield but also took significant playing time at third base and dabbled at second and first.

Going into 2025, the club projects to have prospect Jace Jung as the regular at third base. Vierling could have been an option to cover there if Jung struggled but was likely to be the regular right fielder, with Riley Greene in left field and Parker Meadows in center.

For as long as Vierling is out of action, the Tigers will have to adjust their plans. Ideally, Jung would take the third base job and run with it, but he has just 34 major league games under his belt thus far. Without Vierling, the top fallback options will be utility infielders like Andy Ibáñez and Zach McKinstry. Perhaps Javier Báez could be another option if Trey Sweeney is handling shortstop, or vice versa.

There are more question marks in the outfield. Meadows is also battling some inflammation in his upper right arm. He is currently being evaluated and the club should provide further updates in the coming days.

At this point, Greene a lock for one outfield spot. Meadows would have another if his issue is minor and he can be ready by Opening Day. Kerry Carpenter could be in the mix for some outfield playing time but he could also act as the designated hitter with regularity. Wenceel Pérez and Justyn-Henry Malloy are on the 40-man roster and have options. They previously projected to start the season in Triple-A but have a better path to big league playing time with Vierling out of action. Ibáñez and McKinstry could also play the outfield in a pinch. Akil Baddoo started camp as a non-roster depth option but required hamate surgery last week and will himself be out of action for a few weeks.

If Vierling is able to get healthy and return fairly early in the season, then this could all be a small blip in the larger context of the full season. Though if the issue ultimately proves significant, that would naturally lead to a larger level of concern. That’s especially true of Meadows also needs to miss some time. If the Tigers decide to add some position player depth, guys like Jose Iglesias, Alex Verdugo, David Peralta and others remain unsigned in free agency.

MLBTR Podcast: Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…

  • Can the Braves seriously go into the season with this rotation depth? (1:50)
  • Could the Braves add to the bullpen before the season starts? (9:25)
  • Why is David Robertson not signed? (13:00)
  • Could the Mets and Jose Iglesias reunite on a one-year, $5MM deal with a vesting option? (17:10)
  • Should the Cubs have signed Jose Iglesias instead of Justin Turner? (24:35)
  • Could there be a battle forming for the final rotation spots for the Tigers between Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda and Jackson Jobe? (30:35)
  • Are the Mariners waiting for a pitching injury on another team to trade Luis Castillo? (38:05)
  • When a team like the Dodgers does significant deferrals, what year’s payroll does the money go on? (43:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Tigers, Thomas Szapucki Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers and left-hander Thomas Szapucki have agreed to a minor league contract, per Evan Woodbery of MLive.com. He’ll head straight to minor league camp and look to build back up after a pair of injury-ruined seasons.

Once a well-regarded pitching prospect within the Mets’ system, Szapucki made his big league debut with New York in 2021, tossing 3 2/3 innings. He was tagged for six runs in that rough first effort, but he’d pitched well when healthy in the minors and put himself on the map for a larger MLB look in 2022. He indeed got that larger look, albeit only to an extent. Szapucki was clobbered for nine runs in just 1 1/3 innings, and the Mets traded him to the Giants alongside J.D. Davis in the deal bringing Darin Ruf back to Queens.

Szapucki took off in San Francisco, albeit in a relatively small sample. He tossed 13 2/3 innings for the Giants, recording a pristine 1.98 ERA with a big 29.6% strikeout rate and tidy 7.4% walk rate. Add in the 3.11 ERA in 25 minor league outings (16 of them starts), and a then-26-year-old Szapucki looked like he might have a real path to meaningful innings in San Francisco.

As is so often the case with pitching prospects, injuries intervened. Szapucki began experiencing arm discomfort in spring of 2023. He opened the year on the injured list, and by mid-May he’d undergone surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. He didn’t pitch a single inning in 2023. His 2024 season was limited to just one inning, as shoulder troubles derailed a comeback bid with the Giants, who’d non-tendered him but quickly re-signed him to a minor league contract.

Over the past two seasons, Szapucki has pitched just one professional inning. His big league track record is skewed heavily by that pair of brutal starts with the Mets, but his most recent MLB work was that excellent stretch of 10 relief outings with the 2022 Giants. The 2015 fifth-rounder brings a career 2.87 minor league ERA to the Tigers — including a 3.47 mark with a 28.8% strikeout rate in 114 Triple-A innings.

The Tigers’ Rotation Camp Battle

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The Tigers expected to enter Spring Training with four rotation spots secured. Jack Flaherty’s surprisingly quiet market allowed Detroit to reinstall him as the #2 starter behind Tarik Skubal. Righty Reese Olson filled that role down the stretch last year after the Tigers traded Flaherty to Los Angeles. Free agent signee Alex Cobb would’ve had a mid-rotation role in his own right.

It didn’t take long for an injury to intervene. Cobb is battling inflammation in his right hip, which is likely to lead to a season-opening injured list stint. It’s an alarming start to his Detroit tenure, as the veteran righty missed a good portion of last year rehabbing a 2023 labrum repair in his opposite hip.

What had been a camp battle for one spot expands to a competition for two vacancies. Detroit has a handful of recognizable names — including a few one-time top prospects who are still looking to establish themselves — in the mix for those jobs behind the Skubal/Flaherty/Olson top three.

Jackson Jobe

Aside from Roki Sasaki, the 22-year-old Jobe may currently be the sport’s most talented pitching prospect. Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and MLB Pipeline each placed him as their #2 pitching prospect. Keith Law of The Athletic ranks Jobe as the #1 pitching prospect — Law excluded Sasaki from his ranking based on the latter’s NPB experience — while Eric Longehagen of FanGraphs had Jobe behind Sasaki and Andrew Painter.

Evaluators agree that Jobe has top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He’s the most exciting player in this group, but he’s far from a lock to break camp. The 6’2″ righty’s MLB experience consists of four relief appearances — two apiece in the regular season and playoffs — last fall. He has started all of two Triple-A games.

Jobe spent most of last season at Double-A Erie, where he turned in a 2.36 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate but walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters. He missed two months because of a hamstring strain. Last year’s 91 2/3 innings nevertheless represented the most he’s thrown in a professional season. Even if he breaks camp, he’s unlikely to make 30+ starts and top 150 innings. The Tigers surely don’t want to burn him out early in the year. Jobe still has a full slate of options and could begin the year with Triple-A Toledo.

Casey Mize

The first overall pick in 2018, Mize is now a few seasons removed from being one of the game’s top pitching prospects. The 27-year-old’s body of work has been decent but underwhelming relative to expectations. Mize pitched to a 3.71 ERA over 30 starts in 2021, his first full season. Tommy John surgery essentially cost him the next two years. The Auburn product returned to action with a 4.49 ERA across 102 1/3 frames last year. He showed plus control and got a lot of ground-balls but managed only a 17.3% strikeout rate.

Mize hasn’t missed many bats and gave up a lot of hard contact last season. He’s still sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball, but none of his top four offerings (four-seam, slider, splitter, sinker) got especially strong results last year. It looks like he’s trending towards a fifth/sixth starter role. Mize still has a full slate of options, but he’s 61 days away from reaching five years of service time. At that point, he cannot be sent to the minors without his approval. He’s making $2.34MM and under arbitration control for another year beyond this one.

Kenta Maeda

The Tigers inked Maeda to a two-year, $24MM free agent deal last winter. It looked like a good value at the time, but the veteran righty had a terrible first season in the Motor City. Maeda allowed more than six earned runs per nine across 112 1/3 innings. He struck out just 19.8% of batters faced, a huge drop from the 27.3% mark he’d posted during his final season with the Twins. His home run rate climbed for the fourth consecutive season.

Maeda lost his rotation spot last July. He worked in long relief until the final weekend of the season, when he picked up a spot start after Detroit had punched its postseason ticket. Detroit left him off their playoff rosters. While Maeda was essentially a non-factor by season’s end, president of baseball operations Scott Harris said early in the offseason that the Tigers would give him another chance to earn a rotation spot out of camp. The Tigers kept him on the roster all offseason, suggesting they’re still holding out some hope that they’ll get something positive from what’ll be a $10MM investment this year. Maeda can’t be sent to the minors, so if he doesn’t win a rotation spot, he’ll either head back to long relief or be a release candidate.

Brant Hurter

A seventh-round pick in 2021, Hurter made his MLB debut last August. The 6’6″ lefty came out of the bullpen for all but one of his 10 appearances. He averaged 4.5 innings per appearance, though, so he was more or less operating as a bulk arm who generally followed an opener. Hurter had a strong debut, pitching to a 2.58 earned run average through 45 1/3 frames. He struck out 21.7% of batters faced against a 3.4% walk rate while getting grounders at an excellent 53.1% clip.

Hurter leans most heavily on a sinker that sits in the 92 MPH range. That pitch gets a lot of grounders but rarely misses bats. He showed more swing-and-miss potential with a low-80s breaking ball. Hurter recorded a lot of strikeouts up through Double-A. Hitters started putting the ball in play much more frequently at the top minor league level. There’s volatility with that approach, which is demonstrated by the 5.80 ERA which Hurter posted across 19 Triple-A appearances (18 starts). The Tigers could have some questions about how his arsenal would play against right-handed hitters, in particular, if he works as a traditional starter.

Keider Montero

Detroit added Montero to their 40-man roster during the 2023-24 offseason. They called him up for the first time late last May. The 24-year-old righty took the ball 19 times (including 16 starts) and worked 98 1/3 innings of 4.76 ERA ball as a rookie. The underlying marks weren’t great. His 18.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% swinging strike percentage were each a few points below average. He surrendered more than 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Montero’s 7.5% walk rate was fine and his fastball sat in the 94-95 MPH range, but his rookie year was mostly a struggle.

Montero has missed more bats in his minor league career, albeit with shakier control than he showed in his MLB action. He struck out 24.1% of opponents across 13 Triple-A starts. A walk rate north of 13% contributed to an unimpressive 5.03 ERA over 48 1/3 frames. Montero still has two option years and can bounce between Detroit and Toledo. While he has been a starter throughout his professional career, perhaps there’d be some intrigue in seeing how his stuff plays in a relief role.

Matt Manning

Manning, 27, is another former top 10 pick and top prospect in this mix. The 6’6″ righty has made 50 career starts over the past four seasons. He carries a 4.43 ERA across 254 innings. As with Mize, he has shown decent control but struggled to miss bats (16.4% strikeout rate). Manning fell fairly far down the depth chart last season. He only made five major league appearances while taking the ball 15 times for Toledo. He posted a 4.28 ERA while striking out a quarter of batters faced over 69 1/3 minor league innings. He battled a lat injury in the second half and was sidelined from around the All-Star Break until the middle of September.

This will be Manning’s final option year if he spends at least 20 days in the minors. He’s on track to qualify for arbitration next winter. It’s approaching make-or-break territory if he’s going to carve out a significant role in Detroit.

Ty Madden

Madden reached the majors for the first time last August. The Texas product had a limited role as a rookie. He pitched to a 4.30 earned run average with a 16.8% strikeout rate across 23 innings. Madden missed a lot more bats in the minors, where he punched out 28.3% of opposing hitters over 22 starts. That was about the only positive from his minor league numbers, though. Madden allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine. He gave up way too many home runs and walked nearly 10% of batters faced.

Baseball America ranked Madden as the #18 prospect in the Detroit system this winter. The outlet writes that his four-pitch mix and command are fringy. The stuff has been good enough to get whiffs against minor league hitters, but he’s probably ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season.

Tigers Sign Andrew Chafin To Minor League Deal

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5:05pm: Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that Chafin will make $2.5MM if he cracks the roster. There’s also $1.5MM available via incentives and a $250K assignment bonus if he is traded.

4:00pm: The Tigers announced that they have signed left-hander Andrew Chafin to a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to spring training. The southpaw is a client of Meister Sports Management.

Chafin, 35 in June, has spent over a decade as an effective lefty reliever. That includes a couple of previous stints with Detroit. He was with the Tigers for the entire 2022 season, posting a 2.83 earned run average. Last year, he had a 3.16 ERA in 37 innings for the Tigers before being traded to the Rangers at the deadline. His results with Texas weren’t quite as strong, so he finished the year with a 3.51 ERA overall.

His profile has changed over his career, as he was previously a strong ground ball guy but has moved more towards strikeouts in more recent seasons. From 2014 to 2022, Chafin tossed 400 2/3 major league innings with a 3.23 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. His pitch mix consisted of 26.6% fastballs, 39.6% sinkers, 32.8% sliders and 1% changeups.

Over the past two seasons, he has bumped the slider usage to 40.6%, mostly at the expense of his fastball, which has been used just 18.3% of the time. That’s led to a 4.10 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 12.6% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate.

Though Chafin has been solid and consistent on the whole, he hasn’t been viewed kindly by the open market. In the past seven full seasons, he has logged at least 49 innings, only once posting an ERA higher than 3.76.

He first became a free agent after a rough showing in the shortened 2020 season, spending most of it on the injured list and tossing just 9 2/3 innings. That led to a one-year, $2.8MM deal with the Cubs for 2021. Chafin posted a 1.83 ERA that year and secured a two-year, $13MM deal with Detroit going into 2022, with the second year being a player option.

After posting a 2.83 ERA in 2022, he declined his $6.5MM player option to take another shot at free agency. That didn’t lead to much extra earning power, as he landed a one-year, $6.3MM deal with the Diamondbacks, plus $1MM of incentives. Last winter, another one-year deal was his result, getting a $4.8MM guarantee from the Tigers. This time around, despite a solid campaign, he’s had to settle for a minor league pact.

The Tigers have Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter and Sean Guenther as lefty relievers on the roster. Holton should have a big league job locked down but Guenther has just 41 1/3 innings in the majors with a 5.01 ERA. Hurter just made his MLB debut last year and is also in the rotation mix, so the club might prefer to have him as a frequently-optioned multi-inning guy/depth starter.

If Chafin looks like his old self in camp, he could perhaps get a job as the second lefty in the bullpen alongside Holton. If not, he’ll have chances to look elsewhere. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, Article XX(b) free agents get guaranteed opt-out chances on minor league deals if they are signed more than ten days prior to Opening Day. An Article XX(b) free agent is one with six years of service who finished the previous season on a 40-man roster or 60-day injured list. Those opt-out chances are five days prior to Opening Day, May 1st and June 1st.

Details On Nolan Arenado Trade Talks

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For much of the offseason, a Nolan Arenado trade seemed inevitable. But spring training is now rolling along and he’s still a Cardinal. Today, Katie Woo of The Athletic takes an extensive look at the twists and turns of the winter. Many of the details came out over the past few months but the piece also provides some new tidbits and extra context.

Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

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