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Guardians Sign John Means

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The Guardians announced the signing of free agent lefty John Means on a one-year deal with a 2026 club option. The Wasserman client will reportedly make $1MM for the upcoming season. The option carries a base value of $6MM and contains $1.5MM in bonuses: $75K apiece for every 10 innings between 20 and 50, $100K each for the next 10 innings up to 90, $125K for the following 10 innings through 130, and $150K each at 140 and 150 frames. The option does not include a buyout, so the guarantee is $1MM. Means is recovering from his second career Tommy John surgery and expected to be out of action until August.

As a corresponding move, Cleveland placed David Fry on the 60-day injured list. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November and won’t be able to play the field this year. Even returning as a DH will reportedly take six to eight months from that surgery, meaning he likely won’t return until midseason.

Means, 31, was once the Opening Day starter for the Orioles and looked to be a cornerstone in the rotation as the team navigated the late stages of its rebuild and moved back into a win-now mode. The southpaw pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 353 1/3 innings from 2019-22 but was limited to just eight innings in the final of those four years when a UCL tear necessitated Tommy John surgery.

Means grinded through a yearlong rehab process and returned late in the 2023 season. He didn’t make it out of May of 2024 without reinjuring his elbow, unfortunately, and the team announced a second UCL procedure for Means last June. That surgery figures to sideline him beyond the All-Star break — perhaps into the final month or so of the season. Given that timeline, he’s not a lock to pitch for Cleveland at all this year. Any setbacks of note would make it tough for the lefty to get back on a big league mound in 2025.

At his best, Means sat 92-94mph with a four-seamer and complemented the pitch with an 82 mph changeup and 85 mph slider. His strikeout rate typically sat just below league average, though Means’ impeccable command helped to offset his pedestrian bat-missing numbers.

Now, however, three full seasons have elapsed since Means last pitched even 25 big league innings in a season. He tossed 146 2/3 innings in 2019 when first establishing himself and logged a career-high 155 frames in 2021. He’s since combined for just 52 1/3 innings: eight in 2022, 23 2/3 in 2023 and 20 2/3 in 2024. When he was healthy enough to take the mound last year, Means’ fastball averaged only 90.5 mph — down more than three miles per hour from its peak of 93.8 in 2020.

There’s clearly a good bit of uncertainty with Means, which is reflected in the minimal nature of his guarantee this season. If he can get back to peak form, or even 80-90% of that form, he’ll be a bargain addition. If not, the Guardians are barely investing more than a league-minimum salary and can simply move on at season’s end. Stocking up on late-season reinforcements for the staff makes some sense for the Guardians, who don’t have the type of rotation certainty that we’ve generally come to expect from them over the years.

Right-hander Tanner Bibee has emerged as the unquestioned staff leader, but the rest of the group is far less certain. Gavin Williams and Logan Allen, both top prospects who graduated alongside Bibee and impressed in 2023, took substantial steps backwards in 2024. Right-hander Ben Lively has found a second act in his MLB career after spending three years in the KBO, but he sat 89.9 mph with his heater last year. He’s far from a sure thing, but coming off 151 innings of 3.81 ERA ball, he’s likely locked into a spot. Beyond Bibee and Lively, things are more up in the air.

Triston McKenzie opted to forgo surgery in 2023 when he was diagnosed with a UCL injury, and his 2024 season included 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA and noticeably lesser stuff on the mound. Cleveland picked up hard-throwing righty Luis Ortiz from the Pirates in the Andres Gimenez/Spencer Horwitz trade this offseason, but he’s something of a project, having yet to pitch a full season in a big league rotation. Swingman Jakob Junis signed a one-year deal within the past week and could factor into the rotation or serve as a long man in Stephen Vogt’s bullpen. Shane Bieber is back with the club on a two-year deal, but he’s rehabbing from his own Tommy John operation, performed April 12 last year. He’s not likely to be an option until May or June, and the rehab from any major surgery comes with the possibility of setbacks.

In all likelihood, Cleveland will open the season with a rotation including some combination of Bibee, Williams, Lively, Ortiz, McKenzie, Junis and Allen. Others on the 40-man roster include Joey Cantillo, Doug Nikhazy and Slade Cecconi, while non-roster hopefuls in camp include veterans Vince Velasquez and Kolby Allard.

There’s plenty of volume, but the Guards will need to continue showing their knack for coaxing quality performances out of unassuming pitchers if they’re to repeat as champions in an American League Central where they’ll face competition from the Tigers, Royals and Twins. Getting Means back in mid-August could serve the same effective boost as a trade deadline pickup, but only time will tell where his velocity will sit and what kind of workload he can be realistically expected to shoulder.

MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported that the Guardians were in “advanced talks” with Means. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com had the one-year agreement with a ’26 option. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported the $1MM guarantee, option value of up to $7.5MM, and the August return timeline. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the incentive breakdown.

Guardians, John Means “In Advanced Talks” About Contract

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The Guardians and free agent southpaw John Means may be nearing an agreement, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo hears from sources that the two sides are “in advanced talks.”

Means underwent a Tommy John surgery last June, so it is possible his recovery process might prevent from pitching at all during the 2025 season.  It stands to reason that Means and the Guards could be discussing a two-year contract that would pay Means a limited salary in 2025 and then a larger guarantee in 2026 when he would presumably be ready to take on a full workload.

Cleveland re-signed Shane Bieber (coming off a TJ surgery of his own) to something of a similar structure this offseason worth $26MM in guaranteed money, though it is fair to assume Means will be landing less money due to his more checkered recent health history.  Means has pitched only 52 1/3 MLB innings since the start of the 2022 due to not one but two different Tommy John procedures.

These injuries brought a sour end to an overall successful seven-season run for Means with the Orioles, as the left-hander posted a 3.68 ERA over 401 innings for the only organization of his professional career.  This stint in Baltimore might technically not be over yet since the O’s have had interest in re-signing Means, but Cleveland has now emerged as perhaps a more ardent suitor for Means’ services.

Means wouldn’t be an option for the Guardians until the second half of the season at the absolute earliest, so he could join Bieber as some late-season reinforcements to a rotation that has a few question marks heading into 2025.  Luis Ortiz, Slade Cecconi, and swingman Jakob Junis were brought to help bolster a rotation that was average at best last season, though Ortiz is the only one of that trio projected for a rotation spot at the moment.  Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, and Triston McKenzie are penciled in as the rest of the starting five, though there figures to be some fluidity as the Guards figure out how to best get the ball to their elite bullpen.

Guardians Sign Jakob Junis

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TODAY: The Guardians officially announced Junis’s signing today. Hentges was moved to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move.

February 13: The Guardians and Jakob Junis are in agreement on a one-year, $4.5MM deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The signing is pending a physical for the Wasserman client. Cleveland’s 40-man roster is at capacity, though they can create a spot by placing any of Shane Bieber, David Fry or Sam Hentges on the 60-day injured list.

Junis adds versatility to Stephen Vogt’s pitching staff. The 32-year-old righty has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen throughout his career. He has pitched mostly in multi-inning relief roles over the last two seasons. That has suited him well, as Junis has turned in solid numbers in consecutive years. He pitched to a 3.87 earned run average with a career-best 26.2% strikeout rate across 80 innings for the Giants two seasons ago.

The uptick in strikeouts earned Junis a $7MM guarantee from the Brewers last offseason. Milwaukee intended to give him a rotation opportunity, but he suffered a shoulder impingement during his first start of the season. A scary fluke injury delayed his return from the injured list. A few weeks after the shoulder injury, Junis was struck in the neck by a fly ball while he was jogging in the outfield during batting practice. That necessitated a brief hospitalization.

Fortunately, Junis escaped the incident with no long-term effects. It set him back as he rehabbed the shoulder, though, leading Milwaukee to transfer him to the 60-day IL. The Brewers used him out of the bullpen when he returned towards the end of June. They packaged him alongside outfielder Joey Wiemer to the Reds to land Frankie Montas in a deadline deal.

The Reds initially kept Junis in the bullpen themselves. They stretched him back out as a starter for the season’s final month. While the Reds were essentially out of contention by that point, Junis performed well as a starter. He allowed two or fewer runs in each of his final six appearances (five starts and one long relief outing). He built back to 5-6 inning stints to close the year.

Though the injuries limited him to 67 innings, Junis turned in a career-low 2.69 ERA between the two NL Central clubs. He didn’t sustain his ’23 uptick in whiffs, as his strikeout rate dropped to a 20.2% clip that is more in line with his overall track record. The eight-year MLB veteran has excellent command though. He kept his walks to a career-low 3.2% rate last season and has issued free passes to fewer than 6% of opposing hitters throughout his career.

Junis sits in the 91-92 MPH range with his sinker and four-seam fastball. He leans most heavily on a low-80s slider. That has given him some trouble with left-handed batters in his career, but he was effective against hitters of either handedness last season. He held lefties to a .218/.238/.406 line while stifling right-handed batters to a .193/.236/.329 slash. That could give Vogt the confidence to plug him into a season-opening rotation role.

For the second straight year, the rotation is Cleveland’s biggest question. Tanner Bibee is the staff ace, at least until Bieber returns from his Tommy John rehab. He’ll likely be followed by some combination of Ben Lively, Gavin Williams and trade pickup Luis Ortiz. Junis could compete with Triston McKenzie, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen for the fifth starter role. McKenzie is out of options and will likely be on the MLB team in some capacity. Each of Allen, Cantillo and Cecconi have an option remaining and can head to Triple-A Columbus if they don’t earn an Opening Day rotation spot.

The signing pushes Cleveland’s projected payroll to roughly $100MM, according to RosterResource. That’s right in line with last year’s $98MM season-opening payroll and a few million dollars below where they ended the ’24 campaign. They could still have a few million dollars for a depth acquisition or two after winning the division and earning an ALCS berth.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Which Teams Should Still Sign A Free Agent Starter?

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Spring training is beginning to kick off around the league, and as is perennially the case, there are a handful of notable free agents still looking for homes. That's of particular importance for the group of starting pitchers who still remain unsigned. Over the years, we've typically (not always) seen late-signing hitters struggle less than late-signing pitchers. Starting pitchers, in particular, seem to benefit from a full, gradual ramp-up rather than the sort of accelerated build that inherently comes with a mid-March signing.

Nick Pivetta stands as the most notable starter who's yet to find a landing spot. He's surely been impacted by the qualifying offer that's hanging over his head. Any team other than the incumbent Red Sox would need to forfeit at least one draft pick (possibly two, depending on CBT status) in order to sign the longtime Boston righty. Others still on the market include veteran mid-rotation or back-end starters Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Ross Stripling, Lance Lynn and Patrick Corbin -- just to name some. (A full list can be seen here.)

This time of year, there's plenty of talk about teams that still need to add an arm. That can take different shapes, however. I wrote about the Mets' rotation for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers last week, but the Mets aren't necessarily the type of team that needs to go out and add an innings eater to step into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. They have myriad options there already. Any addition for them, presumably, would be a clear-cut playoff starter. It's a similar situation with the Orioles, Cubs, Blue Jays and many other postseason hopefuls. Other clubs, like the Tigers and Pirates, have a mostly set group with a bevy of interesting young, MLB-ready top prospects knocking on the door. Signing Quintana or Gibson to eat innings likely isn't in the cards for teams in either of these groups.

At this stage of the offseason, some of those available free agents might need to wait for a spring injury or a trade to create the opportunity they seek. But there are still teams around the league that are rather clearly in need of some steady innings in the Nos. 3-5 spots in the rotation. Let's run through some clubs that have the need and, as crucially, the budget (or lack thereof) to add an established veteran arm to the back of the staff.

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Poll: Who’s Winning The Offseason In The AL Central?

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The calendar has flipped to February and the start of spring is just a matter of days away. While some notable free agents (including seven of MLBTR’s Top 50) remain unsigned, most clubs have already done the heavy lifting in terms of preparing their roster for the 2025 season. In the coming days, we’ll be taking a look around the league at which clubs have had the strongest offseason to this point. The Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers have decisively won the polls covering the National League’s three divisions, but things were much closer in the AL West with the Athletics squeaking past the Rangers by about 300 votes for the division’s best offseason. Will things be just as close in the AL Central?

Coming off a season where they sent three teams to the ALDS and had a fourth club narrowly miss the postseason, the AL Central enters 2025 in its strongest position in years in spite of the White Sox breaking the single-season record for losses last year. That strength comes with heightened expectations, however, and clubs like the Tigers and Royals that have been mired in lengthy rebuilds in recent years are looked at as genuine contenders entering the season for the first time in a decade or more. Meanwhile, the Guardians and Twins hope to keep their perpetual playoff contention going and the White Sox will look to show signs of life despite being mired in what could be a lengthy rebuild of their own following their disastrous 2024 season.

Which team has done the most to set themselves up for success this winter? Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Cleveland Guardians

It’s been a busy offseason in Cleveland with plenty of turnover on the roster. The club’s biggest free agent move was reuniting with longtime ace Shane Bieber on a two-year deal with an opt out after 2025, but they also reunited with longtime first baseman Carlos Santana for his third stint with the club and inked veteran reliever Paul Sewald to a one-year deal as well. Those three free agent moves have been supplemented by a number of notable trades. They shipped out the contracts of Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw to Toronto in separate deals and flipped first baseman Spencer Horwitz (acquired in the Gimenez deal) to the Pirates for Luis Ortiz to bolster the club’s rotation.

In addition to those roster upgrades, however, they’ve also made a handful of sell-side trades including a deal that sent first baseman Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks. The club also parted ways with right-hander Nick Sandlin as part of the Gimenez trade and shipped righty Eli Morgan to the Cubs in a separate deal. Overall, the Guardians managed to substantially upgrade their rotation after the unit struggled with depth in 2024 and cleared plenty of salary off their long-term books, but did so at the expense of an offense that loses two everyday players in Gimenez and Naylor as well as some of the club’s bullpen depth in Sandlin and Morgan.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have followed up their breakout 2024 season by continuing to spend in free agency, and kicked off the winter’s free agent market by agreeing to a new three-year deal with veteran right-hander Michael Wacha. Wacha’s return to the rotation gave the club the starting depth they needed to trade right-hander Brady Singer to the Reds in order to acquire infielder Jonathan India and provide Bobby Witt Jr. with additional protection in the lineup.

Those early offseason moves were the most significant of the winter for Kansas City, though they’ve stayed busy by adding closer Carlos Estevez to their bullpen on a two-year deal and re-upping with swingman Michael Lorenzen to provide competition for youngsters Alec Marsh and Kris Bubic at the back of the rotation. It’s a strong group of offseason moves on paper, though it’s somewhat troubling that the Royals haven’t properly addressed an outfield group that was bottom-three in baseball by wRC+ last year.

Detroit Tigers

For much of the offseason, it appeared that the Tigers were largely standing pat as the club entered the holiday season with veteran starter Alex Cobb’s one-year deal as their only notable addition. Since then, however, they’ve added two more notable free agents who didn’t see their markets develop as much as expected. They’ve bolstered the lineup with Gleyber Torres on a one-year deal that kicked Colt Keith over to first base and Spencer Torkelson into a bench role, but most notable of all is the club’s reunion with Jack Flaherty on a two-year deal that includes an opt out after 2025.

After shipping Flaherty to Los Angeles last summer before catching fire down the stretch, plenty of fans have wondered what the Tigers’ run through the postseason last year might have looked like with Flaherty alongside Tarik Skubal at the front of the rotation. That question could now be answered in 2025, and with no significant subtractions from the club’s roster this winter it’s difficult to argue the Tigers haven’t improved headed into the coming season.

Minnesota Twins

It’s been a very quiet offseason in Minnesota. From the outset of the offseason, there’s been reports of the Twins’ payroll being more or less maxed out and the club needing to move salary in order to make notable additions. Those trades haven’t materialized to this point, despite rumors swirling around top players like Pablo Lopez as well as more ancillary pieces like Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack.

That hasn’t completely stopped the Twins from making moves, however. In the past week, they’ve signed Harrison Bader to back up oft-injured star Byron Buxton in center field while adding southpaw Danny Coulombe to the bullpen as a replacement for Caleb Thielbar. They also managed to swing a trade for former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya with the Dodgers when he was squeezed off of the 40-man in Los Angeles, though Cartaya has yet to so much as make his debut in the big leagues to this point. Whether they can add a bat to the lineup who can help replace the production of Max Kepler and Carlos Santana, however, figures to depend on the club’s success at swinging a sell-side trade to clear salary.

Chicago White Sox

As a firmly rebuilding club, the goals of the White Sox offseason look quite different to the other clubs in the AL Central. With that being said, however, they’ve generally done quite well in achieving those goals. Their most notable move, of course, was shipping southpaw Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox in a Winter Meetings blockbuster reminiscent of the Chris Sale trade following the 2016 season. In exchange for Crochet’s services, Chicago landed a pair of top-100 prospects in catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery as well as infielder Chase Meidroth and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez.

That excellent return for two years of Crochet aside, the club’s offseason has mostly been defined by adding shorter-term ancillary pieces who could potentially be flipped at the trade deadline in July. Matt Thaiss, Cam Booser, Mike Tauchman, Austin Slater, Bryse Wilson, Josh Rojas, and Martin Perez all fit this category to one degree or another, with the latter five names all being signed to inexpensive one-year deals that should make them easily affordable for even budget-conscious contending clubs this summer should any of them play well enough to justify a trade.

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Despite having the lowest cumulative payroll of any division in the majors, the AL Central has had a fairly busy offseason with every team having made at least a couple of noteworthy additions. The Guardians have continued their eternal balancing act of the present and future by improving the roster’s biggest weakness in 2024 while shedding significant salary, while the Royals and Tigers both made notable (if somewhat modest) additions to the rosters that catapulted them to surprise contention last year. The Twins have made a handful of minor moves as they hope their deep roster can rebound from the steps backward some key players took in 2025, while the White Sox jump-started their rebuild with a major trade and added a number of low-cost veterans with an eye towards more trades this summer.

Of the five NL Central clubs, which one has had the strongest offseason so far? Have your say in the poll below:

Guardians To Sign Vince Velasquez To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians and right-hander Vince Velasquez are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The CAA Sports client also receive an invite to major league camp. Paul Haynes of Cleveland.com reports that Velasquez would trigger a $1.5MM base salary if he makes the MLB roster and could secure another $2.5MM in incentives.

Velasquez, 33 in June, missed the entire 2024 season. He was with the Pirates in 2023 but required surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow that summer. Per Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk, as relayed by Justice delos Santos of MLB.com, it wasn’t a full Tommy John surgery. It was some sort of hybrid between a between a reconstruction and a repair of the ligament. Velasquez had undergone Tommy John surgery as a prospect back in 2010.

At the time of that procedure in June of 2023, the Pirates put a timeline of roughly 11 to 12 months on the righty’s return. He hit free agency going into 2024 and theoretically could have returned late in the year but never signed anywhere. Presumably, Velasquez is either recovered now or hoping to be healthy for a decent amount of the 2025 season. The Guardians will bring him into camp and get a close-up look at him, without going so far as to commit a roster spot.

Prior to this injury odyssey, the righty has shown some flashes of being a capable back-end rotation guy or swingman. From 2015 to 2023, he tossed 763 2/3 innings over 191 games, including 144 starts. He has allowed 4.88 earned runs per nine while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and giving out walks at a 9.3% clip.

The Guardians have plenty of question marks in their rotation, apart from Tanner Bibee being locked into one spot. Ben Lively had a 3.81 ERA last year but with a tepid 18.7% strikeout rate. He seemed to get some luck from a .265 batting average on balls in play and 78.4% strand rate, which is why his 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA were higher than his ERA. Pitchers like Triston McKenzie, Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi have had up-and-down careers. Gavin Williams was injured for a decent chunk of 2024 and only made 16 starts with a 4.86 ERA.

Given the uncertainty in that group, adding some veteran non-roster depth makes plenty of sense. The Guards already signed Kolby Allard this week and now Velasquez adds another arm into the rotation competition.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephen underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

Guardians Sign Kolby Allard To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians announced that they have signed left-hander Kolby Allard to a minor league deal. The Excel Sports Management client also receives an invite to big league spring training and will be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Allard, 27, has appeared in the past seven major league seasons. He has spent most of that time as a swingman/depth starter, which was the case last year as well. He signed a one-year, $1MM deal with the Phillies, with the club frequently shuttling him between the majors and Triple-A. He made four starts and three relief appearances for the big league club, logging 27 innings. He allowed 15 earned runs for a flat ERA of 5.00.

The Phils could have retained Allard via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a modest raise to a $1.1MM salary. But the Phils outrighted him off the roster instead, perhaps due to the fact that Allard exhausted his final option year in 2024. He elected free agency after being outrighted, which allowed him to sign this deal with Cleveland. Including his stint with the Phils, Allard has now thrown 272 big league innings in his career. He has a 5.99 ERA, 18.9% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 38.3% ground ball rate.

The Guardians had the best bullpen in baseball last year but their rotation was uncharacteristically weak. They currently project to go into 2025 with a starting mix including Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz, Triston McKenzie and Slade Cecconi.

Bibee is a strong option but there are question marks with the rest. Lively posted a 3.81 ERA last year but with a tepid 18.7% strikeout rate. Cecconi, Ortiz and McKenzie have shown good flashes at times but with inconsistent results overall. Williams battled injuries in 2024 and had a 4.86 ERA over the 16 starts he was able to make. They will eventually have Shane Bieber in the mix, though he’ll surely start the season on the injured list after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April.

Given the uncertainty in that group, adding some non-roster depth is a sensible add. As mentioned, Allard is now out of options, meaning he’ll have a tough time hanging onto a roster spot if he gets one, but there’s a possible path back to the majors with the lack of fully established starters currently penciled in.

What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?

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The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams.  Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage.  The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round.  For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.

With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded.  Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league.  Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.

Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.  This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.

To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves.  Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place.  Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.

(First, some notes on the draft order.  The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients.  That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B.  If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round.  Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order.  This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks.  The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)

Onto the selections….

Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants.  Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure.  The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins’ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.

Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick.  If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.

Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal.  Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team.  The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers.  With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.

Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves.  With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities.  Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.

Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons.  As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft.  Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.

Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.

Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade.  This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.

Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.

Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year.  Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.

Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.

Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.

Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey.  While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick.  Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.

Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom.  Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.

Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending.  In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.

Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons.  Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.

Pedro Avila Elects Free Agency

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January 30: Avila has declined the assignment in favor of free agency, the team announced.

January 29: The Guardians have sent reliever Pedro Avila outright to Triple-A Columbus, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. Cleveland had designated him for assignment a week ago when they signed Paul Sewald. Avila has been outrighted once before in his career, which gives him the right to elect minor league free agency.

Avila, 28, was a bullpen workhorse this year. He took the ball 54 times and tossed 82 2/3 relief innings between the Padres and Guardians, fourth in the majors behind Ryan Yarbrough, Derek Law and Luke Weaver. While most of Avila’s work came in low-leverage relief, he managed solid results. Avila turned in a 3.81 earned run average with a decent 23.2% strikeout percentage and 45% grounder rate. The righty had a slightly higher than average 10.2% walk rate, but he was generally an effective bullpen piece for skipper Stephen Vogt. He added four scoreless innings during the postseason.

That was Avila’s second straight decent year. He provided San Diego 50 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents in 2023. That makes it somewhat surprising that he didn’t attract any interest on the waiver wire. Avila is out of minor league options, though, so any team that claimed him would’ve needed to keep him in the MLB bullpen or designate him themselves. Apparently no team was willing to commit him a roster spot.

As mentioned, Avila now decides whether to stick with the Guardians or test the market. That he went unclaimed on waivers suggests he’d probably be looking at a minor league deal with a non-roster Spring Training invite if he elects free agency.

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