Davey Lopes Passes Away
The Dodgers announced today that Davey Lopes passed away today at the age of 80. Lopes made his debut as a player in the early 1970s and went on to have a career as a coach and manager, making him a staple of the game for the bulk of five decades.
Lopes was a late bloomer. He didn’t make it to the majors until 1972, which was his age-27 season. Even then, he only got into 11 games for the Dodgers. The following year, his age-28 campaign, he finally established himself as a big league regular. He became the club’s second baseman and showed off the speed that would become his standout trait. He swiped 36 bags that year, his first of what would eventually be a 14-year streak of stealing at least 15 bases.
He stayed on the Dodger roster through the 1981 season, mostly covering the keystone but also with occasional action at shortstop, third base and in the outfield. The Dodgers had a very consistent infield during that stretch, with Steve Garvey the mainstay at first, Lopes at second, Bill Russell at short and Ron Cey at third.
Lopes played in 1,207 games for the Dodgers from his 1972 debut until the end of that 1981 campaign. He hit .262 in that time and launched 99 home runs but the eye-popping stat was his 418 stolen bases. He led the league in steals in both 1975 and 1976, with 77 in the former and 63 in the latter. The second instance was particularly impressive as injuries limited him to only 117 games. In 1978, he won a Gold Glove and also made the All-Star team, the first of four straight All-Star selections.
The Dodgers were quite good in that time but couldn’t quit win a title for most of it. They lost the World Series to the Athletics in 1974, then to the Yankees in both 1977 and 1978. In 1981, they were able to get the job done, topping the Yankees 4-2. Lopes stole ten bases in in 16 postseason games that year.
Prior to the 1982 season, he was traded to the A’s, kicking off the journeyman phase of his career. He would also bounce to the Cubs and Astros, playing past his 42nd birthday. He finished his career with 7,340 plate appearances over 1,812 games. He racked up 1,671 hits, including 155 home runs. He scored 1,023 runs and drove in 614. His 557 steals put him 26th on the all-time list.
He quickly pivoted to his post-playing career by becoming a bench coach with the Rangers. That was followed by stints as a first base coach with the Orioles and Padres. He was hired to manage the Brewers for the 2000 season. The club did not fare well and he was fired early in 2002. He never got another managerial gig and had a 144-195 record in that job. He then went back to being a first base coach, starting with a return to the Padres, followed by stints with the Nationals, Phillies, Dodgers and back to the Nationals. He retired from coaching after the 2017 season.
We at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in sending condolences to the Lopes family as well as everyone else mourning him today.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Cade Horton To Undergo Season-Ending UCL Surgery
Cubs right-hander Cade Horton will undergo elbow surgery and miss the remainder of the 2026 season, manager Craig Counsell tells Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Horton has a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Whether he requires full Tommy John surgery or some sort of alternative won’t be known until the procedure is taking place. He is already on the 15-day injured list and will be transferred to the 60-day IL whenever the Cubs need to open a 40-man roster spot.
It’s a painful but unsurprising development for Horton. He started for the Cubs on Friday but threw a pitch that was about two miles per hour below his average. He summoned the trainer and was removed from the game, with the Cubs announcing his ailment as forearm discomfort. He was quickly placed on the IL and is now destined to stay there.
Horton entered the 2025 season as one of the top pitching prospects in the league. He delivered on that hype by giving the Cubs 118 innings with a 2.67 earned run average. He had big breakout potential here in 2026 but it will instead go down as a mostly lost season. The eventual details of his surgery will determine his path back to the mound. A full TJS usually has a timeline of 14 months or more, whereas an alternative such as the internal brace variety could allow a pitcher to return slightly quicker.
The young righty wasn’t called up until mid-May last year but pitched well enough to finish second in National League Rookie of the Year voting. As part of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, that gave him a full year of service time retroactively. He’ll continue to collect service time while on the IL this year and will get to the two-year mark. Along the way, he will turn 25 years old in August.
For the Cubs, they will have to proceed without Horton in their rotation plans for this year. They also lost Matthew Boyd to the IL in recent days, though his bicep strain seems fairly minor. From their season-opening rotation, they are down to the trio of Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga. They began the campaign with Javier Assad optioned to the minors but he has quickly been recalled and will start today’s game. It seems likely that swingman Colin Rea will start tomorrow, though the Cubs haven’t made that official.
As mentioned, Boyd’s situation isn’t considered serious, so he could be back in a couple of weeks. There’s also Justin Steele, who is working his way back from his UCL surgery, which was performed around this time last year. He is on the 60-day IL and won’t be eligible for a return until late May.
In the short term, their depth is a bit questionable. Jaxon Wiggins is one the top pitching prospects in the league and he is pitching at Triple-A but he still needs to rein in his command. He walked 11.5% of batters faced last year and is up to 13.9% so far in 2026. Kyle Wright and Vince Velasquez are non-roster guys with big league experience but neither has been in the majors since 2023 and Wright is currently on the minor league IL.
Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images
Poll: What Should The Cubs Do With Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki?
The Cubs kicked off the 2026 season with a pair of notable extensions. They locked up star center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and veteran second baseman Nico Hoerner on contracts that will keep both players in town through the end of the 2032 season. Even after extending Hoerner (who was a pending free agent prior to signing), however, the Cubs are in position to lose a lot of talent this offseason. Sixty percent of the club’s starting rotation (Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon) is slated to hit free agency after the season. This is also catcher Carson Kelly‘s final year under contract.
The most notable players the team stands to lose to free agency, however, are Crow-Armstrong’s partners in the outfield: left fielder Ian Happ and right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Whether a deal will come together with either Happ or Suzuki remains to be seen. As of two months ago, both Happ and Suzuki indicated that they had not spoken to the Cubs about extensions yet. That can change with one phone call, of course, but there’s been no evidence to this point that the sides have engaged in talks so far. On the surface, the argument for extending one or both of the team’s corner outfielders seems fairly obvious: both have been consistently productive for Chicago.
Happ is now in his tenth season as a major league player, and he’s never posted a below average season by measure of wRC+ in that time. Since the departure of the core that won the World Series in 2016, Happ has been the club’s longest-tenured player and a consistent presence on offense. From 2022 onwards, he’s slashed .250/.346/.435 (119 wRC+) overall with remarkable year-to-year consistency. His wRC+ has fallen between 116 and 122 in each of the last four years, and on defense each of those seasons has ended with him being awarded the NL’s Gold Glove for his work in left field. Aside from his on-field value, Happ also holds a meaningful place in Cubs history with a chance to finish the year in the franchise’s top 10 all time for home runs.
Suzuki, on the other hand, joined the Cubs after coming over from Japan ahead of the 2022 season and has only improved across his four years with the club. A career .269/.346/.472 (127 wRC+) hitter in the majors, he’s been arguably the Cubs’ most productive bat during his time with the club. Since arriving in the majors in 2022, Suzuki’s the 11th-best outfielder in the majors by wRC+ (minimum 1500 plate appearances). That puts him just behind Byron Buxton and Julio Rodriguez, sitting just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Corbin Carroll. Those are middle-of-the-order superstars that Suzuki is rubbing elbows with from a statistical perspective, and that sort of impact can be tough to replace.
That’s not to say extending either player is necessarily a slam-dunk decision, as both certainly come with flaws. Both will celebrate their 32nd birthdays in August, putting them near the end of their prime years. Neither is exactly a complete player, either. Suzuki’s offensive impact cannot be denied, but his defensive struggles in the outfield are well-documented and led to him spending most of the 2025 campaign as the club’s DH. He’s also struggled to stay healthy in the majors, having only played 150 games once in his career. He already started 2026 on the injured list due to a knee injury he suffered during the World Baseball Classic.
Happ, on the other hand, is a more well-rounded player but the offensive production he offers is a lot easier to come by. Taylor Ward, Teoscar Hernandez, Brendan Donovan, Jarren Duran, Anthony Santander, Randy Arozarena, and Brandon Nimmo are all within three points of Happ’s wRC+ from 2022-25 in one direction or the other. All of those players are quality pieces, but that group is undeniably a step down from the rarefied air Suzuki’s numbers put him in.
One key factor that has not yet been mentioned regarding the Cubs’ decisions on Suzuki and Happ is the availability of quality alternatives. Arozarena is set to reach free agency this year and is comparable to Happ and Suzuki in terms of both age and productivity, but they’re undoubtedly the top three corner outfielders on the market this winter. Players like Trent Grisham and Ramon Laureano lack the lengthy track records offered by Happ and Suzuki, while someone like George Springer comes with even more substantial age-related concerns given that he’ll turn 37 this September. If the Cubs are going to dip into free agency for outfield help this winter, they’ll be hard pressed to find an upgrade over the guys they already have.
In terms of internal options to replace the duo, the Cubs are quite thin. Top outfield prospect Owen Caissie was dealt to Miami over the offseason to land Edward Cabrera. Kevin Alcantara is a well-regarded prospect currently hitting very well at Triple-A, but the 23-year-old has struggled in limited chances in the majors and draws significant value from his defense in center field, a position he won’t play on a team that features Crow-Armstrong. 2025 first-rounder Ethan Conrad is very well-regarded in prospecting circles but still years away from the majors. Matt Shaw was displaced from third base by the addition of Alex Bregman and has gotten some reps in right field while Suzuki is on the shelf, but he was a below-average offensive player last year and had no experience in the outfield before this spring.
How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should handle the outfield corners going forward? Should they extend one or both of their current veterans, or let them both walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:
How should the Cubs approach Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ's futures?
Cubs Place Cade Horton On Injured List With Forearm Discomfort
Today: Speaking on ESPN 1000 radio, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported that Horton is set to visit Dr. Keith Meister later today, following an inauspicious MRI (per ESPN 1000’s David Kaplan). While a second opinion from a well-known orthopedic surgeon doesn’t confirm bad news, it’s no doubt a worrisome development for the Cubs and their young right-hander.
April 3, 6:17pm: Skipper Craig Counsell tells Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic that Horton will go for imaging this weekend. The team will know once the results come back, but the righty will land on the 15-day injured list in any case.
April 3, 3:56pm: Cubs righty Cade Horton exited today’s start after calling for a trainer in the second inning. The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro points out that Horton’s final pitch was a fastball that clocked in about two miles per hour shy of his season average. Taylor McGregor of the Marquee Sports Network adds that the Cubs are calling Horton’s injury right forearm discomfort.
It’s an ominous development for a Cubs team that opened the season without ace Justin Steele, who is still on the mend from last April’s UCL surgery. Horton, 24, was the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2025 after kicking down the door to the majors with a 2.67 ERA in his first 118 big league frames. The 2022 No. 7 overall pick’s 20.4% strikeout rate was a couple percentage points shy of average, but he offset that with strong command (6.9% walk rate), an average ground-ball rate (42.3%) and a knack for avoiding hard contact. He’s pitched 7 1/3 innings this season between his debut and today’s abbreviated start. Opponents have two runs on four hits and a walk.
Obviously, it’s too soon to say whether Horton will miss an extended period of time — if he misses any at all. Even a short-term IL stint would sting, however. The rest of the Chicago rotation includes Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and trade acquisition Edward Cabrera. Steele and former first-rounder Jordan Wicks are both on the injured list already.
Veteran swingman Colin Rea is in the bullpen and could start in the short term if the Cubs need. He filled in admirably last year when injuries piled up on the starting staff. Rea posted a 4.33 ERA in 27 starts last season and a 0.56 ERA in 16 relief innings. He was manager Craig Counsell‘s go-to option today as well, taking over after Horton’s exit. Righty Ben Brown worked as a starter in camp and is still stretched out for multiple innings as well; he’s tossed 6 2/3 frames in two appearances this season.
Looking further down the depth chart, righty Javier Assad is in Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster. He’s pitched to a 3.43 ERA in 331 major league innings, mostly out of the rotation, though injuries limited him to 55 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues last year. Top prospect Jaxon Wiggins is also in Triple-A but would need to be added to the 40-man roster. Veterans Kyle Wright and Vince Velasquez also opened the season with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Des Moines after signing minor league deals in the winter. Either could be called upon as short-term replacements, although like Wiggins, they’d need to be added to the 40-man roster.
Cubs To Place Matthew Boyd On Injured List
The Cubs are placing left-hander Matthew Boyd on the 15-day injured list with a left bicep strain, retroactive to April 3rd, reports Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Right-hander Javier Assad will be recalled from the minors and will start tomorrow’s game.
There wasn’t any prior indication that Boyd was hurt, as he took the ball for the first two turns to start the year. The first one didn’t go well, as Boyd allowed six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. He bounced back on Wednesday, tossing 5 2/3 against the Angels, striking out ten while allowing just two earned runs. For what it’s worth, his velocity did drop. His fastball averaged 93.3 miles per hour in the first outing but was down to 92.2 in the second.
On its own, it doesn’t appear to be a disastrous development. Sharma adds that Boyd and manager Craig Counsell feel it’s a small issue that will require a minimal IL stint. Regardless, it’s a bit worrisome in the larger context of the club’s rotation. They started the year with Justin Steele still working his way back from last year’s surgery. He is on the 60-day injured list and is therefore out until at least late May. Cade Horton landed on the IL last week due to forearm discomfort. His status is still up in the air but that’s a worrisome diagnosis.
Losing Boyd is another hit for a group that is already snakebit. They do still have Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga in three spots. Assad was optioned to the minors to start the year but will now come back up and slot in behind those three. It’s expected that Colin Rea, who began the season in the bullpen, will probably jump to the rotation as well.
As far as fallback plans go, Assad and Rea are pretty good. Assad has a 3.43 earned average over 331 career innings. He only really got nudged out of the season-opening rotation because he still has options. Rea posted a 3.95 ERA in a swing role last year and the Cubs clearly value his ability to move fairly seamlessly between starting and relieving. They restructured his deal in November to give him a bit of extra cash and keep him around while adding a club option for 2027.
Despite Assad and Rea being decent contingencies, it’s less than ideal for the rotation to lose two guys in a span of a few days. The remaining 40-man guys on optional assignment are relievers. Ben Brown is perhaps an option to make a start or two but he’s in the big league bullpen. Prospect Jaxon Wiggins is in Triple-A but isn’t on the 40-man and is still showing big control issues, with a 13.9% walk rate so far this year. In terms of non-roster guys with big league experience, Vince Velasquez tossed five innings yesterday in a Triple-A start yesterday.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images
Cubs Aiming To Activate Seiya Suzuki On April 10
Seiya Suzuki is three games into a minor league rehab stint with Double-A Knoxville, and his return to the Cubs’ lineup is now on the horizon. As manager Craig Counsell told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and other reporters today, the plan is for Suzuki to be activated from the 10-day injured list before Friday’s game with the Pirates.
Suzuki will play for Knoxville on Tuesday and Wednesday in order to get a few more reps in before the Cubs make their final decision. The first three rehab games saw Suzuki start twice in right field and once as a DH, and Counsell said the team wants Suzuki ready to contribute both offensively and defensively.
“We’re probably dealing with at-bats as much as anything here,” Counsell said. “He didn’t get a full spring. Multiple weeks off. It’s just making sure he’s ready to go offensively….We want him to play right field, so we’ll activate him when he’s ready to play right field.”
The World Baseball Classic limited Suzuki’s Spring Training work to just two Cactus League games, and a PCL sprain then ended Suzuki’s preseason work altogether. Suzuki suffered the injury while trying to steal second during Japan’s WBC quarter-final game with Venezuela on March 14. The sprain was apparently minor enough that the Cubs gave some consideration to keeping Suzuki off the IL entirely, though Chicago decided to be cautious and give Suzuki more time to ramp up.
2026 is a big year for Suzuki, as it is the final season of the five-year, $85MM free agent contract he signed with Chicago prior to the 2022 season. The deal has proven to be a solid investment, as Suzuki has hit .269/.346/.472 with 87 home runs over his four Major League seasons, translating to a 127 wRC+ and 11.1 fWAR. Suzuki turns 32 in August and his corner outfield glovework has been average at best, so he’ll need more big numbers at the plate in order to land another lucrative contract in free agency (with the Cubs or another team) next winter.
Matt Shaw‘s playing time will be most impacted by Suzuki’s return, as the former top prospect has been seeing a lot of time in right field in Suzuki’s absence. Shaw will continue to be used in a bit of a super-sub capacity around the diamond, and will still get some time on the grass when Suzuki is used as a DH. Moises Ballesteros has been Chicago’s primary DH so far but he has gotten off to a slow start, so the Cubs might option Ballesteros to Triple-A once Suzuki is back on the active roster.
If the Cubs prefer to keep Ballesteros getting looks against MLB pitching, any of Michael Conforto, Dylan Carlson, or Scott Kingery could be designated for assignment as the odd man out for Suzuki. The veteran trio all made the team after signing minor league contracts this past winter, and Conforto has only one hit in 10 plate appearances while Kingery and Carlson have each appeared in just one game apiece. The set nature of the Cubs’ everyday lineup makes it difficult for backups to get much regular playing time, and things will be even more crowded with Suzuki back in action.
Cubs To Promote Riley Martin
April 5: Martin’s recall and Horton’s placement on the IL are now official. In addition, the Cubs have recalled right-hander Ethan Roberts to the majors as the club’s 27th man for today’s doubleheader against the Guardians.
April 4: The Cubs will promote left-hander Riley Martin from Triple-A Iowa to their active roster before today’s game with the Guardians, according to Bleacher Nation’s Jacob Zanolla. Martin is likely the corresponding move for Cade Horton‘s forthcoming placement on the 15-day injured list, and no other transaction is needed since Martin is already on Chicago’s 40-man roster.
The 28-year-old Martin will be making his Major League debut whenever he is first used in a game. The southpaw was a sixth-round pick for the Cubs in the 2021 draft, and he has pitched at the Triple-A level in each of the last four seasons. Working almost exclusively as a reliever, Martin has a 3.88 ERA and an impressive 30.67% strikeout rate over 139 1/3 innings in Iowa, but with an inflated 15.57% walk rate. Left-handed Triple-A batters contributed most of that damage, as Martin had significant reverse splits in both 2024 and 2025.
Baseball America ranked Martin 20th on its list of the top 30 Cubs prospects, while MLB Pipeline has the southpaw 28th on their top-30 ranking. He relies almost entirely on a plus curveball that, as per Pipeline’s scouting report, “can be devastating at times and also lose some shape and miss the zone by wide margins at others.” In general, Pipeline’s evaluation feels Martin “trades control for deception” in deploying an upright delivery to maximize the break on his pitches.
Chicago placed Martin on the 40-man roster last November in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the lefty will now take the next step into the big leagues for the first time. Martin has often worked multiple innings out of the pen, giving the Cubs some extra length as they figure out how to manage Horton’s absence. Swingman Colin Rea could be the top candidate for rotation work, Ben Brown is another candidate already on the active roster, or the Cubs might use both pitchers and other arms for a bullpen game or two until Rea is fully stretched out for a starting role.
Will Any Pre-Arbitration Pitchers Sign Extensions?
From a transaction perspective, this time of the baseball calendar is defined by extensions. Within the past month, we've seen two impending free agents (Nico Hoerner and Jesús Luzardo) come off the board. The Cubs got a deal done with pre-arbitration center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Philadelphia extended Cristopher Sánchez even though he was already potentially signed through 2030.
The Orioles extended arbitration-eligible starter Shane Baz. The Mariners reached the largest pre-debut extension with shortstop prospect Colt Emerson. That's likely to be a brief record with the Pirates reportedly working on a deal with #1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin. Milwaukee infield prospect Cooper Pratt is nearing an eight-year contract of his own despite being a couple tiers below Griffin and Emerson according to scouts.
Despite all that activity, there's one demographic that has stayed out of the early-season extension run. There have not been any long-term deals for pre-arbitration pitchers this spring. Teams aren't quite as aggressive in extending pitchers early in their careers as they are with elite position player talents. There's more injury uncertainty with young arms.
However, there are generally a few extensions for pre-arbitration hurlers each season. Tanner Bibee, Brandon Pfaadt and Arizona closer Justin Martinez signed extensions last spring. Brayan Bello agreed to a six-year deal the year before that. Hunter Greene, Spencer Strider, Aaron Ashby, Garrett Whitlock and Emmanuel Clase were among those to sign between 2022-23.
Will any young pitchers sign extensions within the next few weeks? Let's run through a few speculative possibilities in each service class and the kind of money which those pitchers could command.
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MLBTR Podcast: Lots Of Extensions And Big-Picture Topics
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Mariners signing an extension with Colt Emerson (1:20)
- The Brewers agreeing to an extension with Cooper Pratt (19:05)
- The Orioles signing an extension with Shane Baz (28:40)
- The Cubs signing extensions with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner (38:00)
- Free agents coming from Japan getting less than expected this offseason (53:35)
- The Tarik Skubal arbitration decision potentially being a paradigm shift (59:15)
- The economics of the game with the collective bargaining agreement expiring in less than a year (1:05:50)
- Did the short-term deals for Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette signal a new trend? (1:22:45)
- Dealing with high-spending clubs with draft pick penalties instead of financial penalties (1:31:00)
- Can the Brewers continue to win after trading away some valuable guys? (1:38:10)
- The exciting crop of 2026 rookies (1:41:15)
- Can the Pirates push into contention in a crowded NL Central? (1:43:40)
- The excitement around the introduction of the ABS system (1:44:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- The PCA and Sanchez Extensions, And Prospect Promotions And Reassignments – listen here
- Banged-Up Reds And Braves, Kevin McGonigle, And Spring Breakouts – listen here
- Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Poll: Which Recent Cubs Extension Will Age Better?
The Cubs have made a huge splash on the extension front over the past week by locking up a pair of their core position players long-term. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and second baseman Nico Hoerner have signed extensions that will keep them in Chicago through the end of the 2032 season. It’s an exciting development for fans on the North Side. With the team’s recent addition of Alex Bregman plus players like Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson already under long-term control, the Cubs now have a core of position players to build around for the next several years.
That came at a price. Crow-Armstrong’s deal guarantees him $115MM and could climb another $18MM based on his MVP finishes. Hoerner’s deal is even more substantial, guaranteeing him $141MM (although deferred money lowers the net present value slightly to $137.5MM). Those are significant investments and big bets on the pair to continue performing after they turned in career years in 2025. Which one is more likely to live up to those expectations?
The case for Crow-Armstrong is one rooted in his youth and massive upside. His season-long stats in 2025 (including a 109 wRC+, 31 homers, 35 steals, and 6.0 bWAR/5.4 fWAR) could be argued to actually register as a bit of a disappointment based on what he did in the first half, when he was a legitimate early contender for the NL MVP award. 25 of those home runs and 27 of those steals came before the All-Star break, at which point he was slashing a sensational .265/.302/.544. A deep slump throughout August and September raised some concerns, however, as he hit just .188/.237/.295 over the season’s final two months. Crow-Armstrong’s speed and defense are enough to make him a viable major league player even when he’s flirting with the Mendoza line, but he’ll need to do a lot better than that to justify a nine-figure deal.
Can he find the consistency necessary to make the deal a good one? There’s certainly reasons to think so. While Crow-Armstrong struggled in terms of results down the stretch last year, he actually improved his plate discipline somewhat. His 35.6% out-of-zone swing rate and 86.2% in-zone contact rate since August 1 were both better than his season-long figures of 41.9% and 84.0%, respectively. Crow-Armstrong’s struggles late in the 2026 campaign were more about a power outage than an increase in poor swing decisions. If he can carry those improved swing decisions into the future while tapping into his first-half power, he’ll be a superstar. If his first-half power surge proves to be more of a flash in the pan than something sustainable, it’s possible the Cubs could wind up regretting the deal.
By contrast, Hoerner is a much more consistent player with a well-established track record. Since becoming an everyday player in 2022, Hoerner has hit .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) overall. He’s been remarkably consistent year-to-year, as well. His wRC+ has always fallen between 102 and 109, and he’s stolen at least 20 bases every season. After injury woes early in his career, he’s become a reliable presence on the field with at least 640 plate appearances in each of the past three years. He pairs that consistency and availability with superb defense that’s won him two Gold Gloves at the keystone and allowed him to post between 3.8 and 4.8 fWAR (3.7 and 6.2 bWAR) in each of his seasons as a regular.
That profile also comes with limited offensive upside, however. If there’s another gear to Hoerner’s game, it could be proving that his career-best 7.6% strikeout rate from 2025 is repeatable. Hoerner has a career strikeout rate of just 11.0%, so he’s a good bet to make contact at an elite rate in any year, but last season saw him punch out just 49 times total. Luis Arraez, Andrelton Simmons, and Kevin Newman are the only other players to strike out fewer than 50 times in a season where they recorded at least 550 plate appearances since 2015. Outside of that, however, Hoerner seems unlikely to take a step into MVP-candidate territory.
$141MM is a lot to spend on a player who doesn’t make much of a power impact. The fact that Hoerner will finish his contract at the end of his age-35 season while Crow-Armstrong will be wrapping up his age-30 campaign offers additional reasons for skepticism that Hoerner will be able to outproduce Crow-Armstrong. Another question is about health. Crow-Armstrong has not suffered a major injury since arriving in the majors, while Hoerner (despite his iron man status in the past few seasons) dealt with forearm, hamstring, oblique, ankle, and knee issues early in his career that stand as warning signs as he enters his 30s.
What do MLBTR readers think of Chicago’s recent pair of extensions? Which deal will be looked back on as the better investment when all is said and done? Will Crow-Armstrong’s youth and upside lead to a big win for the Cubs, or will he be unable to match the stability and consistency that Hoerner figures to provide? Will Hoerner stay healthy and stave off age-related decline for long enough to provide that stability throughout the deal? Have your say in the poll below: